Category: Forex News

USD/JPY Forecast: Sub-147 in View Despite 2.1% Slump in Household Spending

Economists forecast a 200k increase in nonfarm payrolls and a steady unemployment rate of 3.7%. However, economists expect average hourly earnings to increase by 4.4% year-on-year in February, down from 4.5% in January.

Beyond the stats, FOMC member chatter requires monitoring. Reactions to the US Jobs Report and views on the timeline for interest rate cuts need consideration.

Short-term Forecast

Near-term trends for the USD/JPY will hinge on the US Jobs Report and Bank of Japan chatter. Support for a BoJ pivot from negative rates and weaker US labor market conditions could tilt monetary policy divergence toward the Yen. The BoJ is considering an exit from negative rates while the markets bet on a June Fed rate cut.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

The USD/JPY sat below the 50-day EMA while remaining above the 200-day EMA, sending bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price signals.

A USD/JPY break above the 148.405 resistance level and 50-day EMA would support a move toward the 150.201 resistance level.

BoJ chatter, the US Jobs Report, and Fed commentary need consideration.

However, a drop below the 147.500 handle could give the bears a run at the 146.649 support level.

The 14-day RSI at 39.07 indicates a USD/JPY fall through the 147 handle before entering oversold territory.


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