Despite Judge Torres addressing the Terraform Labs case, uncertainty shrouds XRP. As the crypto-spot ETF market evolves, the hanging threat of an SEC appeal also limits the chances of an XRP-spot ETF.

Investors will likely have more clarity on SEC plans in the summer. Judge Torres will begin deliberating on a penalty for Ripple breaching Section 5 of the Securities Act in May. At this stage, the chances of a settlement will likely have vanished. The SEC may begin preparing an appeal that could leave XRP sidelined through H2 2024.

However, SEC plans to appeal against the Programmatic Sales ruling hinge on the outcome of,

• Coinbase (COIN) Motion to Dismiss (MTD) all charges in the ongoing SEC v Coinbase case.
• Office of Inspector General investigation into reported crypto conflicts of interest within the SEC.

There is also the US Presidential Election to consider. A Republican Party victory could result in a new SEC Chair and a material shift in attitude toward regulating the US digital asset space.

Nonetheless, recent price action suggests investors are unwilling to bet on the outcomes of the Coinbase MTD, the OIG Investigation, or the US Presidential Election.

XRP Price Action