Coffee price today January 9, 2025

Coffee price world All fell sharply after two increases at the beginning of the week, due to the strengthening of the US dollar and high inventories. The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on the prices of most commodities, including coffee.

Domestic coffee prices today decreased, trading in the range of 120.000 – 121.000 VND/kg. In the Central Highlands, in the first days of 2025, unseasonal rains almost disappeared and the weather was sunny. These are ideal weather conditions for people to harvest the new coffee crop.

The US dollar rose for a second straight session on Thursday, as US bond yields continued their recent rally, following reports that US President-elect Donald Trump is considering using measures to push through new tariffs.

Speculators have been cutting their net long positions across the board, a major factor influencing coffee prices. The latest Commitment of Traders report from the New York arabica market saw the non-commercial speculative sector reduce its net long position by 3,97% in the trading week ending December 31, 2024. Meanwhile, the London robusta coffee market saw the managed currency speculative sector reduce its net long position by 6,11% in the same period.

The increase in inventories also contributed to the price decline. Arabica coffee inventories tracked by ICE New York rose to a 2,5 yearly high on the day 6/1 reached 993.562 lot. Robusta coffee inventories tracked by ICE London rose to a 3 monthly high on the day 8/1 reached 4.415 lot.

However, the market was still supported by concerns that dry weather in Brazil last year could reduce this year’s crop, according to data from GovermentBrazil’s coffee exports in December fell 12% year-on-year to 17 million bags. The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafe) said there were still delays in loading cargoes due to limited port capacity.

Vietnam, the world’s largest producer of robusta, also saw its exports decline sharply compared to last year. In 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports of 1,34 million tons of all kinds are expected to decrease by 17,2% compared to 2023. In December alone, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached 12 tons, down 126.000% compared to the same period last year, according to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam.

Vietnam remains the world’s largest supplier of robusta coffee. Despite a 15% decline in coffee production in 2024 due to drought, average prices rose 57% to a record $4.037 a tonne. Coffee exports last year reached $5,5 billion, up 32% from the previous year.

Coffee prices have increased sharply in recent times, according to a representative of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa). The reason for this is due to many factors: a serious shortage of supply due to a number of factors such as climate change and drought, which have reduced production, while crop conversion has also contributed to pushing prices up. In addition, global conflicts have put pressure on the supply chain, especially when farmers hold onto their goods waiting for good prices after the harvest.

Domestic coffee prices on 8/1 increased by 200 – 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Braziliancoffee)

Notes of World & Vietnam, at the end of the trading session on 8/1, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London monthly delivery term March 2025 turned down 63 USD, traded at 4.956 USD/ton. The monthly delivery term May 2025 decreased 53 USD, traded at 4.877 USD/ton. Low trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange fell sharply, with the monthly delivery term March 2025 down 4,05 cents, trading at 316,45 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the monthly delivery term May 2025 down 4,30 cents, trading at 313,00 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.

Domestic coffee prices on 8/1 increased by 200 – 500 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg Average price Medium Exchange rate USD/VND 25.156 – 22 DAK LAK 121.300 + 300 Lam Dong 120.500 + 200 FAITH 121.200 + 400 DAK AGRICULTURE 121.500 + 500 (Source: giacaphe.com)

2025 is forecast to continue to see strong growth in coffee demand, particularly in emerging markets and the premium coffee segment, although factors such as climate change and fluctuations in coffee production could pose challenges for the industry.

Countries such as China, India, and Southeast Asian countries are experiencing an increase in coffee consumption. The changing consumption habits of young people in these countries are driving the demand for coffee, especially ready-to-drink and instant coffee.

Specialty coffee and organic coffee are gradually dominating the market, especially in developed countries such as the US and EU. Specialty coffee and coffee with clear origins and sustainability are increasingly popular.

The ready-to-drink coffee market, including instant coffee and pre-packaged coffees, is growing due to their convenience. Coffee pods are also becoming a trend, especially in Western markets.

Climate change may alter coffee production, affecting prices and quality. However, demand for coffee may remain strong thanks to the development of new farming methods and increased attention to sustainable coffee.

Meanwhile, e-commerce platforms and online coffee delivery services are helping to boost consumer access to coffee products, especially in the post-Covid-19 pandemic era.

Coffee demand will continue to grow at a steady rate of about 1-2% per year, due to the growth of new markets and changes in consumption habits in traditional markets. Forecasting global coffee demand in 2025, experts say that global coffee demand could reach 180 million to 200 million bags (1 bag = 60kg), with some regions such as North America, Europe and Asia still accounting for the majority of consumption demand.