Created on September 22, 2025

• The euro dropped a bit against the Japanese yen during the day on Friday, breaking below the ¥174 level. The ¥174 level is an area that previously has been resistant, as it was the top of the ascending triangle that I have been watching so closely.
• All things being equal, the market is likely to continue to see this area as important, but the short-term pullback I think offers a bit of value that people might be willing to take advantage of.

Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan chose to hold interest rates stable, but they stopped buying ETF’s, which means they are not willing to help risk assets. That is in a roundabout way slightly tighter with monetary policy, but at the end of the day I think really what it comes down to is that the Bank of Japan is not going to be raising rates anytime soon, and therefore I think the market will continue to show the Japanese yen unless of course we get a major move to a “run to safety” type of attitude. Based on the ascending triangle, the potential target is going to be somewhere near the ¥177 level, but that doesn’t mean that we have to get there overnight.

Remember that the interest rate differential still favors the euro, although the euro isn’t the high yielding currency that I would choose based on swap to trade against the Japanese yen. From a technical analysis standpoint, it’s obvious that this is a market that is very bullish, and what I find interesting about the ascending triangle is that it not only has an up trending line but also has the 50 Day EMA sitting right at that line offering support as well. Ultimately, this is a market that I’m looking at dips as potential buying opportunities, and therefore I think it’s only a matter of time before we get involved in this market to the upside yet again.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.