2026.03.20 2026.03.20
USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 20.03.26–27.03.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below 159.86 with a target of 156.07–155.17. A sell signal: the price holds below 159.86. Stop Loss: above 159.86, Take Profit: 156.07–155.17.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 159.86 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 161.00–163.00. A buy signal: the level of 159.86 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 159.86, Take Profit: 161.00–163.00.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions from corrections below 159.86 with a target of 156.07–155.17.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above the level of 159.86 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 161.00–163.00.

Analysis

An ascending fifth wave of larger degree 5 is developing on the weekly chart, with wave (1) of 5 forming as its part. Apparently, the third wave of smaller degree 3 of (1) has formed on the daily chart, and a correction has been completed as the fourth wave 4 of (1). The fifth wave 5 of (1) is likely developing on the H4 time frame. Within it, wave i of 5 has formed and a local correction is developing in the form of wave ii of 5. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to drop to 156.07–155.17. The level of 159.86 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 161.00–163.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode