World oil prices today

In the past week, world gasoline and oil prices continued to decrease. WTI crude oil decreased from 69.23 USD/barrel at the end of last week to 68.78 USD/barrel at the end of this week. Overall for the week, WTI oil prices decreased by 0.45 USD/barrel, equivalent to about 0.65% compared to the end of last week.

Brent oil fell from 72.60 USD/barrel at the end of last week to 72.12 USD/barrel at the end of this week. Over the past week, Brent oil prices fell 0.48 USD/barrel, equivalent to about 0.66% compared to the end of last week.

According to analysts, world oil prices continued to fall last week as investors expect negotiations between the US and Iran to achieve positive results, contributing to cooling tensions in the Middle East and reducing the risk of supply disruptions.

However, experts note that the flow of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is still significantly lower than normal. This shows that geopolitical risks have not been completely eliminated and are still a factor supporting oil prices.

Closing the last trading session of the second quarter, oil prices recorded the strongest monthly and quarterly decrease since the Covid-19 pandemic broke out. According to analysts, although the market still partially assesses geopolitical risks, the increasing number of oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf region has helped free up previously stranded ships, thereby temporarily improving supply.

In that context, Morgan Stanley bank forecasts that the global oil market will have a surplus of about 4.8 million barrels/day by 2027.

Experts also believe that the OPEC+ alliance is likely to continue to raise production targets at the meeting on July 5. If approved, this decision will add more supply to the market in the context of weakening oil prices and transportation through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returning to normal.

In the opposite direction, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said that US crude oil inventories last week fell to their lowest level since 2018 due to increased demand from oil refineries. The country’s gasoline inventories also recorded a decrease.

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley bank forecasts that the global oil market will have a surplus of about 4.8 million barrels/day by 2027.

UBS Bank also lowered its Brent oil price forecast due to the increasing volume of oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Specifically, UBS lowered its Brent oil price forecast for the third quarter to 80 USD/barrel, 25 USD lower than the previous forecast; the forecast for the fourth quarter was also lowered by 10 USD to 80 USD/barrel. At the same time, this bank lowered its Brent oil price forecast for 2027 to 75 USD/barrel, 10 USD lower than the previous forecast.

Domestic gasoline prices today

On July 5th, retail gasoline and oil prices according to the price list announced by Petrolimex in region 1 and region 2 are as follows:

The above domestic retail gasoline and oil prices were adjusted by Petrolimex according to the inter-ministry of Industry and Trade – Finance’s management period from 4:00 PM on July 2nd. Accordingly, gasoline and oil prices simultaneously decreased.

Gasoline and oil discount today

– Tu Luc Petroleum Joint Stock Company 1:

+ Diesel oil 0.05S – II: 0 VND/liter;

+ Diesel oil 0.001S-V: 0 VND/liter.

+ E10 RON 95-III gasoline: 50 VND/liter

+ E5 RON 92 – II gasoline: 0 VND/liter

– MIPEC Petroleum Trading and Trading Co., Ltd. – MIPEC Petro (applied to the Northern region):

+ E10 gasoline: 400 VND/liter.

+ Diesel oil 0.05S-II: 100 VND/liter.

Domestic gasoline and oil price forecast for the next period

According to a representative of a gasoline and oil business, it is predicted that in the next price adjustment period, retail gasoline and oil prices may have opposite adjustments.

In which:

– E10 gasoline reduced by about 600 VND/liter;

– E5 RON 92 – II gasoline reduced by about 600 VND/liter;

– Diesel oil increased by about 700 VND/liter.

Copper price settles above the moving average 55 near $5.9500, to announce delaying the bearish corrective attempts, noticing its rally to settle near $6.1500 level, surrendering to the sideways track, which is represented by the current support and $6.3000 level that represents an extra barrier against the current trading.

The price might form sideways trading until surpassing one of the mentioned levels, note that reaching below the extra support and holding below it will open the way for activating the bearish corrective track, to expect targeting $5.8200 and $5.7100 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.9500 and $6.3000

Trend forecast: Sideways 

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market turned down slightly after a strong increase in the previous session. The average price was recorded at 92,900 VND/kg, down 100 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices decreased by 200 VND/kg, down to 92,800 VND/kg. Gia Lai also recorded a similar decrease, bringing the purchase price back to 92,800 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices today decreased by 300 VND/kg, down to 92,300 VND/kg and continue to be the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

The old Dak Nong area had the highest purchase price, reaching 93,000 VND/kg and no changes were recorded compared to the previous update.

Thus, domestic coffee prices currently range from 92,300-93,000 VND/kg. The gap between the region with the highest and lowest prices is 700 VND/kg.

Despite the downward adjustment, the domestic coffee price level still maintained above 92,000 VND/kg, significantly higher than the price range below 90,000 VND/kg at the end of June.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank is recorded at 26,073 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange simultaneously decreased in the last trading session of the week, while the New York Arabica exchange was closed for US Independence Day.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 67 USD/ton, equivalent to 1.77%, to 3,716 USD/ton.

During the session, the contract price at one point reached 3,783 USD/ton but then decreased to the lowest level of 3,675 USD/ton. Trading volume reached 5,306 lots.

Robusta futures in November 2026 decreased by 66 USD/ton, equivalent to 1.76%, to 3,679 USD/ton.

The January and March 2027 terms both decreased by 66 USD/ton, down to 3,646 USD/ton and 3,614 USD/ton respectively.

The July 2026 contract was recorded at 3,903 USD/ton, down 67 USD/ton. However, the trading volume only reached 2 lots because the contract had approached its expiration date, so the September term reflected the market trend more clearly.

For Arabica, the US Intercontinental Exchange did not open on July 3 due to the National Day holiday. Therefore, the price list on July 5 still reflects the results of the pre-holiday trading session.

Accordingly, Arabica futures in September 2026 stood at 301.20 US cents/lb, down 8.70 cents/lb, equivalent to 2.81%.

December 2026 futures are at 286.30 US cents/lb, down 8.55 cents/lb. The March and May 2027 terms are at 281.10 US cents/lb and 280.90 US cents/lb, respectively.

Coffee price assessment

According to financial data from Barchart, coffee prices at one point reached their highest level in about 4 months and 3 weeks before the differentiation.

Arabica prices fell sharply in the most recent session due to profit-taking and liquidation of buy positions before the long holiday in the US. Previously, this commodity had increased rapidly for about 3 weeks due to concerns about unfavorable weather in Brazil.

Heavy rain in Brazil disrupted harvesting activities and increased the risk of affecting coffee quality. Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia forecasting company said that Minas Gerais state recorded 31.3 mm of rainfall in the week ending June 28, nearly 20 times higher than the historical average of the same period.

Minas Gerais is Brazil’s largest coffee producing region. Rains during harvesting can slow down coffee harvesting, transportation and drying, and cause fruit or seeds to decline in quality.

Standard Arabica inventories on the US Intercontinental Exchange decreased to 375,079 bags, the lowest level in about 2 years and 3 months. Available supply on the exchange decreased, continuing to create support for prices after the adjustment.

Meanwhile, Robusta inventories on the European Intercontinental Exchange have increased to 4,053 lots, the highest level in nearly 3 months. The replenishment of standard goods is one of the factors putting pressure on Robusta prices.

The market is also continuing to monitor El Niño developments. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration assesses that there is a 63% chance that El Niño will reach very strong intensity in the period from November 2026 to January 2027.

El Niño may affect rainfall in Brazil during the coffee flowering period in September and October, as well as Robusta production conditions in some Asian countries. However, the specific impact depends on the intensity and timing of appearance in each region.

In terms of pressure, the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture forecasts that Brazil’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year may reach 66.7 million bags.

Rabobank of the Netherlands also forecasts that the global Arabica market will continue to have a surplus. Meanwhile, the prospect of increased Vietnamese coffee production and exports may add more Robusta supply to the market.

Key Moving Averages Regain Attention

The 20-day moving average was confirmed as dynamic resistance twice previously, validating the potential significance of Friday’s close above the indicator. Moreover, the larger trend resistance zone is defined by the 50-day moving average, confirmed multiple times as resistance during rallies on the way down.

Downtrend Structure Still Intact

A bounce to test dynamic resistance would be a typical progression of a downtrend, as it may result in a lower swing high. Initially, that would be the expectation unless it was followed by additional signs of strength. In other words, the current rebound still fits within a broader corrective structure unless resistance levels are decisively reclaimed.

Weekly Reversal Signal in Focus

On a weekly basis, gold has set up a bullish hammer candlestick pattern with a lower high and lower low for the week. Therefore, a decisive breakout above the week’s high of $4,195 would trigger a one-week bullish reversal and set the stage for further strengthening. The next weekly target would then be the two-week high of $4,221. If exceeded, the 50-day moving average becomes more likely to be tested as resistance during the current developing rally.

Stabilization Amid Broader Decline

Overall, while the broader trend remains under pressure, the recent recovery above both the 20-day moving average and rising trendline suggests early signs of stabilization, with follow-through above short-term highs likely to determine whether a deeper corrective phase or a more sustained recovery unfolds.

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Key Takeaway

Copper is experiencing a remarkable transformation from a traditional industrial commodity to a strategic asset class, with prices surging to record highs above $13,000 per metric tonne in early 2026. The convergence of artificial intelligence infrastructure expansion, electric vehicle adoption, and renewable energy deployment has created unprecedented demand dynamics that analysts project will drive copper prices toward $15,000 per tonne by 2035. Supply constraints from aging mines, declining ore grades, and limited new project development suggest the current bull market has significant room to run, making copper one of the most compelling investment themes for the remainder of the decade.

The structural nature of copper’s demand growth distinguishes this cycle from previous commodity rallies. Unlike cyclical industrial demand fluctuations, the electrification of transportation, the buildout of AI data centers, and global renewable energy targets represent multi-decade trends that will sustain copper consumption regardless of near-term economic conditions. For investors seeking exposure to the energy transition and AI revolution, understanding copper market dynamics has become essential for portfolio positioning.

The Perfect Storm: Supply Constraints Meet Explosive Demand

The copper market in 2026 exemplifies what happens when structural supply limitations collide with transformational demand growth. Global copper demand is projected to increase from 28 million tons in 2025 to 42 million tons by 2040, representing a 50% expansion over fifteen years. However, supply growth has failed to keep pace, with mine supply expansion estimates for 2026 falling to approximately 1.4%, roughly 500,000 metric tons lower than initial projections due to operational disruptions including the Grasberg mudslide and ongoing challenges at major producing facilities.

The supply side challenges extend beyond temporary disruptions. Average copper ore grades globally have declined from approximately 1.6% copper content in 1980 to less than 0.8% in 2025, effectively doubling the amount of rock that must be processed to maintain equivalent output levels. This grade deterioration increases energy intensity, water consumption, and waste generation while requiring more sophisticated processing equipment and higher capital expenditures for marginal deposits. New mine development timelines spanning 10-15 years from discovery to production mean that supply cannot respond quickly to price signals, creating a structural deficit that analysts anticipate will reach 10 million tons annually by 2040 without significant supply expansions.

Treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), the fees smelters charge miners to process concentrate, have collapsed to historic lows, reflecting the tight concentrate market and limited available supply. Benchmark TC/RC negotiations for 2026 have been particularly contentious, with regional fragmentation potentially leading to the establishment of regional benchmarks rather than a single global reference price. This dynamic underscores the fundamental tightness in the copper concentrate market and suggests that refined copper production growth will remain constrained regardless of smelter capacity expansions.

AI Data Centers: The Hidden Copper Consumer

While electric vehicles and renewable energy have captured headlines as copper demand drivers, artificial intelligence infrastructure represents an emerging consumption category that market participants are only beginning to appreciate. AI data centers require substantially more copper than traditional data centers due to higher power densities, advanced cooling systems, and extensive networking infrastructure. A single large AI data center can consume between 3,000 to 5,000 tons of copper during construction and initial deployment, with ongoing replacement and expansion needs sustaining demand over the facility’s operational life.

The global buildout of AI infrastructure is accelerating rapidly, with hyperscale cloud providers announcing multi-billion dollar capital expenditure programs focused on AI-enabled data centers. Goldman Sachs Research estimates that AI-related data center investment will reach $1.4 trillion globally by the end of the decade, with copper representing a significant portion of the materials required for power distribution, thermal management, and interconnect systems. This demand category did not exist in meaningful quantities five years ago but is projected to consume over one million tons of copper annually by 2030.

The geographic distribution of AI data center construction creates additional copper demand complexity. While traditional data center hubs in North America and Europe continue to expand, emerging markets including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and parts of Africa are attracting significant AI infrastructure investment as countries seek to establish digital sovereignty and capture value from the AI revolution. Each new facility requires copper-intensive electrical infrastructure, from high-voltage transmission connections to facility-level power distribution systems, creating localized demand surges that strain regional supply chains.

Electric Vehicles and Grid Modernization

The transportation electrification megatrend continues to drive substantial copper consumption growth, with electric vehicles requiring approximately four times more copper than internal combustion engine vehicles. A typical battery electric vehicle contains between 80-100 kilograms of copper across the battery pack, electric motor, wiring harness, and charging infrastructure, compared to approximately 20-25 kilograms for conventional vehicles. As global EV adoption accelerates toward mass market penetration, automotive copper demand is projected to grow from approximately 2 million tons in 2024 to over 5 million tons by 2030.

Grid modernization and renewable energy deployment represent equally significant demand categories. Wind and solar installations require substantially more copper per unit of generating capacity than fossil fuel power plants, with offshore wind turbines containing up to 10 tons of copper per megawatt of capacity. The International Energy Agency estimates that achieving global net-zero emissions targets will require annual copper consumption for clean energy applications to double by 2030, creating sustained demand growth regardless of near-term economic conditions.

Energy storage systems, essential for grid stability as renewable penetration increases, represent another emerging copper demand driver. Battery energy storage systems require copper for internal wiring, power conversion systems, and thermal management, with utility-scale installations consuming hundreds of tons per facility. As battery costs decline and deployment accelerates, this demand category will compound copper consumption growth from generation assets and transmission infrastructure.

Price Forecasts and Investment Implications

Analyst consensus for copper prices in 2026 reflects the fundamental tightness in the market, with forecasts ranging from conservative estimates around $9,800 per tonne to bullish scenarios exceeding $15,000 per tonne. Goldman Sachs Research has established one of the more optimistic price targets, forecasting LME copper prices reaching $15,000 per tonne by 2035 as structural deficits materialize. Citigroup analysts suggest prices could exceed $13,000 and approach $15,000 per tonne in 2026 if supply constraints persist and inventories remain at historically low levels.

Morgan Stanley’s base case scenario positions copper around $10,650 per tonne, with an upside case near $12,780 per tonne if tighter supply conditions persist through the year. The World Bank maintains a more conservative longer-term view, suggesting copper might average closer to $9,800 per tonne in 2026 before rising modestly in 2027 as supply tightens further. These varying projections reflect different assumptions about Chinese demand trajectory, the pace of mine supply growth, and the potential for demand destruction at higher price levels.

The institutional investment community has taken notice of copper’s structural bull case, with capital rotating from precious metals into base metals exposure. Major mining companies including Freeport-McMoRan have seen increased investor interest as the copper price rally translates into earnings leverage and improved shareholder returns. For individual investors, multiple exposure vehicles exist including physical copper ETFs, diversified mining majors like BHP Group and Rio Tinto, and pure-play copper producers such as Southern Copper Corporation.

Navigating Risks and Volatility

While the structural bull case for copper appears compelling, investors must navigate significant volatility and potential downside risks. Copper prices have historically exhibited high volatility, with annual price ranges of 25-35% common during periods of market uncertainty. The copper market in 2026 will likely be characterized by heightened volatility where fundamental supply constraints intersect with policy-driven demand disruptions, requiring sophisticated risk management and tactical positioning flexibility.

Chinese demand represents the largest single risk factor, accounting for more than half of global copper consumption. The Chinese property sector slowdown, inventory destocking cycles, and export restrictions create headwinds that could temporarily offset bullish supply dynamics. However, supportive factors including high-tech manufacturing growth and potential currency movements provide offsetting demand support that could sustain Chinese consumption even as traditional construction-related demand moderates.

Geopolitical tensions and trade policy add additional complexity to copper market forecasting. US tariff implementation on refined copper imports has encouraged stockpiling and tighter physical markets, potentially creating price distortions between regional markets. Resource nationalism in major producing countries including Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of Congo presents ongoing risks to supply security, while trade restrictions could fragment global copper markets and create arbitrage opportunities for well-positioned traders.

Investment Strategies for the Copper Bull Market

Investors seeking copper exposure must evaluate multiple vehicle options with distinct risk-return profiles suited to different portfolio allocation strategies. Physical copper ETFs provide direct commodity exposure without operational risk from individual mining companies, eliminating mine production risk, labor disputes, and jurisdiction-specific regulatory changes while providing pure copper price sensitivity. The Sprott Physical Copper Trust represents the primary option for investors seeking unlevered copper exposure with professional custody and storage management.

Major diversified miners including BHP Group and Rio Tinto offer copper exposure within broader commodity portfolios that provide natural diversification across multiple metals markets. These companies typically maintain strong balance sheets, established operations across multiple jurisdictions, and dividend policies that provide income during periods of price volatility. For investors seeking lower volatility exposure to copper price appreciation, diversified majors offer an attractive risk-adjusted entry point.

Pure-play copper companies such as Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper Corporation provide concentrated copper exposure with higher beta characteristics relative to copper price movements. These investments carry greater operational leverage to copper prices but increased sensitivity to mine-specific risks including geological challenges, labor relations, and environmental compliance issues. For investors with higher risk tolerance and conviction in the copper bull case, pure-play producers offer the greatest potential upside capture.

Conclusion

The copper price forecast for 2026 reflects a market undergoing fundamental transformation from a cyclical industrial commodity to a strategic asset essential for the energy transition and AI revolution. Supply constraints from declining ore grades, limited new project development, and operational disruptions have created a structural deficit that will persist regardless of near-term economic conditions. Demand growth from AI data centers, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and grid modernization represents multi-decade trends that will sustain copper consumption at elevated levels.

For investors, the current copper bull market offers compelling opportunities across multiple exposure vehicles, from physical ETFs to diversified mining majors and pure-play producers. While volatility will remain a defining characteristic of copper markets, the structural nature of supply-demand imbalances suggests that price pullbacks represent buying opportunities rather than trend reversals. As the world electrifies and digitizes, copper’s role as the essential infrastructure metal positions it for sustained outperformance relative to traditional asset classes.

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