Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market increased again in key production areas. The average price was recorded at 97,800 VND/kg, an increase of 1,500 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices increased by 1,500 VND/kg, to 97,700 VND/kg. In Gia Lai, coffee prices also reached 97,700 VND/kg, an increase of 1,500 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices today increased by 1,500 VND/kg, to 97,200 VND/kg. This is the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

The old Dak Nong area continued to have the highest price, reaching 97,900 VND/kg, an increase of 1,600 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

Thus, domestic coffee prices currently fluctuate from 97,200-97,900 VND/kg. The gap between the region with the highest and lowest prices is 700 VND/kg.

After a new increase, the domestic coffee price level has returned close to the 98,000 VND/kg area, significantly higher than the area below 93,000 VND/kg recorded at the beginning of July.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 26,080 VND/USD, an increase of 50 VND.

World coffee prices

According to the updated table on July 18, world coffee prices recovered on both the London and New York exchanges.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract increased by 80 USD/ton, equivalent to 2.11%, to 3,877 USD/ton.

During the session, this contract at one point increased to 3,929 USD/ton, the lowest at 3,789 USD/ton. Trading volume reached 8,708 lots.

Robusta futures for November 2026 increased by 82 USD/ton, equivalent to 2.19%, to 3,829 USD/ton.

The January and March 2027 terms increased by 78 USD/ton and 75 USD/ton, respectively, to 3,787 USD/ton and 3,750 USD/ton.

The July 2026 Robusta contract reached 3,977 USD/ton, an increase of 110 USD/ton. However, this term has very low trading volume because it is close to maturity, so the September contract reflects the market trend more clearly.

On the New York exchange, Arabica also increased in terms. The September 2026 Arabica futures contract increased by 7.70 US cents/lb, equivalent to 2.46%, to 320.30 US cents/lb.

Arabica futures for December 2026 increased by 6.55 US cents/lb, equivalent to 2.20%, to 303.80 US cents/lb.

The March and May 2027 terms increased by 6.45 US cents/lb and 6.30 US cents/lb, respectively, to 297.60 US cents/lb and 295.65 US cents/lb.

Arabica contract in July 2026 reached 328.45 US cents/lb, up 7.15 US cents/lb, but this term has lower volume than long-term contracts because it is close to maturity.

Coffee price assessment

Domestic coffee prices increased again after the previous adjustment, in the context of Robusta and Arabica prices in the world market recovering together. The fact that the domestic price level has returned close to 98,000 VND/kg shows that the market is still maintaining in a high zone.

In the short term, domestic coffee prices are often affected by developments on the London exchange, New York exchange, USD/VND exchange rate and trading activities of export businesses. The increase in the USD/VND exchange rate is also a factor to pay attention to, as it can affect the psychology of export trading.

For the Vietnamese market, the Central Highlands is currently in the rainy season. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that during the day and night of July 19, the Central Highlands area will be cloudy, sunny during the day, showers and thunderstorms in some places in the evening and at night; southwest wind level 2-3.

Rain in this season can help replenish moisture for coffee trees, supporting garden growth. However, prolonged heavy rain, high humidity or thunderstorms can affect garden care, pest and disease prevention and goods quality if preservation and drying are not guaranteed.

From a global supply-demand perspective, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that the average ICO aggregate price index in June 2026 reached 248.90 US cents/lb, down 2.8% compared to May 2026. This development shows that the international market is still affected by expectations of improved supply.

ICO’s Coffee Market Report is a publication tracking price fluctuations, trade and supply-demand balance of the global coffee industry. This is an important reference to look at coffee price trends in the medium term, instead of just relying on each session’s fluctuations.

For Brazil, the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) forecasts that Brazil’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year will reach 66.7 million bags, an increase of 18% compared to 2025. The prospect of a large crop in Brazil is a factor that could put pressure on Arabica prices in the medium term.

Domestic coffee prices today

The average coffee price in the domestic market today was recorded at 96,200 VND/kg, down 2,200 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices were recorded at 96. 200 VND/kg, down 2,200 VND/kg. Gia Lai also had the same price of 96. 200 VND/kg, down 2,200 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices were at 95,700 VND/kg, down 2,200 VND/kg and the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

The old Dak Nong area continued to have the highest price, reaching 96,300 VND/kg, down 2,200 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

Although it has left the near-100,000 VND/kg zone, the domestic coffee price level is still maintained at a high level compared to the beginning of July.

World coffee prices

According to the updated table on July 17, world coffee prices continue to be under adjustment pressure on both the London and New York exchanges.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 114 USD/ton, equivalent to 2.91%, to 3.797 USD/ton.

During the session, this contract at one point reached 3,898 USD/ton but then fell to the lowest level of 3,776 USD/ton. Trading volume reached 8,026 lots.

Robusta for November 2026 delivery fell 117 USD/ton, equivalent to 3.03%, to 3,747 USD/ton.

The January and March 2027 terms decreased by 119 USD/ton and 118 USD/ton respectively, to 3,709 USD/ton and 3,675 USD/ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica also fell sharply. September 2026 Arabica futures fell 14.15 US cents/lb, equivalent to 4.33%, to 312.60 US cents/lb.

Arabica December 2026 futures fell 12.70 US cents/lb, or 4.10%, to 297.25 US cents/lb.

The March and May 2027 terms decreased by 12.40 US cents/lb and 12.10 US cents/lb respectively, to 291.15 US cents/lb and 289.35 US cents/lb.

Coffee price assessment

Domestic coffee prices are currently still hovering around the 96,000 VND/kg range, although they have been significantly adjusted compared to the nearly 100,000 VND/kg range before. This development shows that the market is still at a high level, but the downward pressure from the world market is clearer.

In the short term, domestic coffee prices are often affected by developments on the two international exchanges, exchange rates and trading activities of export businesses. The fact that Robusta and Arabica both decreased in the latest update may make domestic trading sentiment more cautious.

The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting predicts that in July, the Central Highlands region will have many days of showers and thunderstorms, with days of moderate to heavy rain, with rain concentrated in the afternoon and night. The weather in the Central Highlands should not be understood as a factor causing immediate supply shortage, but as a risk that needs to be monitored for plant care and product quality in high humidity conditions.

From a global supply-demand perspective, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that the average ICO aggregate price index for May 2026 reached 256.05 US cents/lb, down 3.8% compared to the previous month, in the context of market reactions with expectations of more abundant supply.

For Brazil, the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) quoted a forecast from the Brazilian National Supply Company as saying that Brazil’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year may reach 66.7 million bags, an increase of 18% compared to 2025. The prospect of a large crop in Brazil continues to be a factor that could put pressure on Arabica prices in the medium term.

For Robusta, supply from Vietnam is still an important factor. The USDA/FAS Coffee Annual report in Vietnam forecasts Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year to reach 32.5 million bags converted to green beans, thanks to production expansion after a period of high coffee prices.

Vietnam is the world’s largest Robusta producer, so the prospect of increased production may put pressure on Robusta in the medium term. However, in the short term, prices may still fluctuate sharply due to developments on the London exchange, inventory, export demand and weather in major production areas.

The central bank of Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, recently lowered its 2026 economic growth forecast, but it raised its average copper price forecast to US$5.90 per pound. The change reflects strong global demand and limited mine supply. It also shows that copper remains one of the world’s strongest commodity markets, even as economic growth slows. 

As the biggest producer, Chile has a major influence on global copper supply. Copper is essential for power grids, electric vehicles (EVs), renewable energy, battery storage, and AI data centers. Higher prices could benefit mining companies while supporting the industries driving the global energy transition.

Chile Sees Strong Copper Prices Ahead

Chile’s latest forecast shows confidence in the copper market. The central bank expects copper to average US$5.90 per pound in 2026, before easing to US$5.20 in 2027 and US$5.00 in 2028.

Even with slower economic growth, officials believe demand will stay strong because the world still needs more copper for clean energy and new technology. 

Chile’s Copper Commission (Cochilco) shares that view. Earlier this year, it also raised its copper price outlook. The agency said prices are being supported by tight global supply and growing demand from renewable energy, electric transport, and digital infrastructure.

Copper prices have seen some ups and downs over the past year. However, they remain well above their historical average. Analysts say the market is now being driven more by long-term demand than by short-term economic swings.

AI and Clean Energy Are Reshaping Copper Demand

Copper has become one of the world’s most important metals.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), power grids will create the largest increase in copper demand over the coming decades. Countries need thousands of kilometers of new transmission lines to connect renewable energy projects and meet rising electricity demand.

Electric vehicles also use much more copper than traditional cars. The IEA estimates that a battery-powered EV needs about 2.5x more copper than a gasoline-powered vehicle. Wind turbines, solar farms, and battery storage systems also require large amounts of the metal.

Artificial intelligence is adding even more demand. AI data centers need transformers, substations, cooling systems, backup power, and large networks of electrical cables. All of these use copper.

The IEA expects electricity use by data centers around the world to more than double by 2030, reaching about 945 terawatt-hours (TWh) each year. That is roughly equal to Japan’s total annual electricity use today. Most of the increase will come from AI.

As companies like Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta build more AI data centers, demand for copper will keep growing.

Chile Remains the World’s Copper Powerhouse

Chile remains the world’s biggest copper producer.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Chile produced about 5.3 million metric tonnes of copper in 2025. That was about one-quarter of global mine production.

The country’s biggest mines include Escondida, Collahuasi, and Codelco. Together, they supply copper to manufacturers around the world.

Cochilco expects Chile’s annual copper production to reach about 5.54 million metric tonnes by 2034. However, growth is likely to be slow. Many older mines now produce lower-grade ore. New mining projects are also becoming more expensive and take longer to develop.

Chile’s state-owned miner Codelco recently said its production is expected to stay close to current levels over the next few years instead of reaching its long-term target of 1.7 million metric tonnes a year by 2030.

Bernardo Fontaine, Codelco Chairman, remarked:

“It is very ⁠possible ⁠that it sits at ⁠a ​production rate quite similar to the one it has today.”

The company is still recovering after output fell to its lowest level in more than 20 years during 2022 and 2023. Production from its own mines reached 1.33 million metric tonnes last year.

Fontaine further said several major expansion projects have faced unexpected delays and higher costs as it works to offset declining ore grades. The company also sees the El Abra mine, where it owns a 49% stake alongside Freeport-McMoRan, as a promising project for future investment. Freeport plans to invest US$7.5 billion to expand the mine.

With demand rising and supply growing slowly, many analysts believe copper prices could remain strong for years to come.

Why Global Copper Supply Is Falling Behind

While demand keeps growing, copper supply is not rising as fast.

Many of the world’s largest copper mines are getting older. As ore grades fall, companies must process more rock to produce the same amount of copper. That increases both costs and energy use.

New mines also take a long time to build. According to the IEA, developing a new copper mine can take 15 to 20 years from discovery to production. Permitting, financing, and environmental reviews all add time to the process.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) expects global mine production to increase over the next few years. However, many analysts believe that growth will still fall short of future demand because of project delays, lower ore grades, and rising costs.

Copper Is Becoming a Critical Net-Zero Metal

Copper is now at the center of the clean energy transition.

The IEA estimates that clean energy technologies could account for almost half of global copper demand by 2040 under a pathway that reaches net-zero emissions by 2050. That includes electric vehicles, renewable power, battery storage, electricity networks, and hydrogen projects.

Power grids will need the biggest investment. The World Bank estimates that global electricity networks must expand rapidly to support cleaner energy and growing electricity demand. Every new transmission line, transformer, and substation requires large amounts of copper.

The rapid growth of AI is adding another layer of demand. New data centers require huge amounts of electrical equipment before they can even begin operating. As more countries build AI infrastructure, copper demand is expected to remain strong.

High Prices Are Sparking New Mining Investment

Strong copper prices may also encourage companies to invest in new projects. The challenge is timing.

Even if companies approve new projects today, many will not begin producing copper until the next decade. That means supply could remain tight while demand continues to grow.

According to S&P Global, global copper demand could nearly double, from 28 million metric tons a year in 2025 to 42 million metric tons by 2040. This is driven mainly by electrification, clean energy, AI, and digital technologies. Meeting that demand will require major investment across the mining sector.

Copper’s Bull Run Faces New Tests

Copper’s long-term outlook remains positive, but risks still exist. A weaker global economy could reduce industrial demand in the short term. Trade tensions and changing government policies may also create periods of price volatility.

However, most market analysts expect the long-term trend to remain strong because the world cannot expand clean energy without more copper.

Chile’s latest forecast reflects that reality. Even as economic growth slows, the country expects copper prices to stay well above historical levels because demand continues to outpace supply.

As countries build more renewable power, modernize electricity grids, expand AI infrastructure, and produce more electric vehicles, demand for copper is likely to remain strong for many years. That is why many analysts believe today’s high prices may be part of a much longer market cycle rather than a short-term rally.

Will oil prices go up?

It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.

How oil prices translate to gas pump prices

Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.

Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.

It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.

Historical performance of oil

To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:

• Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America

Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:

• The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
• Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
• Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
• During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.

All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.

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