The EURJPY pair announced its surrender to the bearish trend dominance by reaching below the sideways trend’s support at 214.20 level, forming some bearish waves and reaching 183.50 level.

The continuation of providing negative momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of resuming the negative attempts, to expect targeting 182.85 level, reaching the next support at 182.30, while the attempt of regaining the bullish trend requires forming a strong bullish rally, to settle above 185.50 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 182.85 and 184.20

Trend forecast: Bearish

The US dollar has been choppy on Tuesday in terms of Japanese yen but has remained bullish looking across the board. I remain bullish on this market.

USD/JPY

The US dollar has been choppy against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.

That being said, USD/JPY is a market that I think continues to watch the 160 yen level as a potential floor in the market, and I also recognize that perhaps this is a market that is much more likely to go higher than lower due to the interest rate differential and the fact that the Bank of Japan is essentially stuck.

They can intervene; they did it about a month and a half ago, but really, that’s about all they can do, and an intervention won’t change the direction of a market typically; it just slows down the momentum.

Analyzing the Long-Term Trend

Now, with that being said, we are well above the area that they had intervened in previously, and we just broke above a 1986 high in this pair. In other words, this is a big deal.

I think this is a market that ultimately will go much higher, perhaps 200, maybe even 224 yen will be the longer-term target. That doesn’t mean we get there tomorrow, but you get paid to hang on to the market at every session break, and as long as that’s the case, then I’ve got no interest whatsoever in trying to fight this trend.

I’m very patient. I add on dips, very small amounts, and I do think that we have much further to go. If the Bank of Japan, for some reason, were to intervene, that’s good with me; I’m more than willing to buy more at a lower price.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The EUR/JPY currency pair is approaching a critical juncture as it tests the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle pattern near the 183.50 support level. This technical formation, which has been developing over recent weeks, signals that a decisive directional move may be imminent. Traders are closely watching whether the pair can hold this level or if a breakdown will trigger further downside momentum.

Understanding the Symmetrical Triangle Pattern

A symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern that forms when price action consolidates between converging trendlines. In the case of EUR/JPY, the upper trendline has been declining while the lower trendline has been rising, compressing the trading range. The pattern typically resolves with a breakout in the direction of the prevailing trend, which for EUR/JPY has been bearish over the short term. The 183.50 level represents the lower boundary of this triangle and is a key support zone that bulls must defend to prevent a bearish breakdown.

The pattern’s significance lies in its ability to measure potential price targets after a breakout. If the support at 183.50 fails, the measured move suggests a decline toward the 180.00 psychological level. Conversely, a bounce from this level could see the pair rally back toward the upper trendline near 185.50 or higher.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

Beyond the immediate triangle boundaries, several other technical levels are relevant for traders. The 183.00 round number provides secondary support below the triangle. On the upside, resistance is clustered around the 185.00 handle, followed by the 186.00 zone, which aligns with previous swing highs. The 50-day moving average, currently near 184.80, also acts as a dynamic resistance level.

Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are hovering near neutral territory, offering no clear directional bias. This indecision reinforces the importance of the triangle breakout as a catalyst for the next trend. Volume patterns will also be critical; a breakout accompanied by above-average volume would lend credibility to the move.

What This Means for Forex Traders

For traders, the current setup presents both opportunity and risk. Those positioned for a breakdown may look for a close below 183.50 on a daily basis as confirmation, targeting the next support levels. Alternatively, traders anticipating a bounce may enter long positions near the triangle support with a stop loss below the recent swing low. The narrow range of the triangle also suggests that volatility could expand sharply once the breakout occurs, making position sizing and risk management essential.

Fundamental factors also play a role. The euro has been under pressure from a dovish European Central Bank outlook, while the yen has been supported by safe-haven flows amid global uncertainty. Any shift in these dynamics could influence the direction of the breakout.

Conclusion

The EUR/JPY pair is at a pivotal point as it tests the symmetrical triangle support near 183.50. The outcome of this technical test will likely determine the pair’s direction in the coming sessions. Traders should monitor price action closely for a confirmed breakout or breakdown, while remaining mindful of broader fundamental drivers. As always, disciplined risk management is advised given the potential for increased volatility.

FAQs

Q1: What is a symmetrical triangle pattern in forex trading?
A symmetrical triangle is a chart pattern formed by converging trendlines, indicating a period of consolidation. It typically resolves with a breakout in the direction of the prior trend, and traders use it to anticipate the next significant price move.

Q2: Why is the 183.50 level important for EUR/JPY?
The 183.50 level represents the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle pattern. A break below this level could trigger further downside, while holding it may lead to a bounce toward the upper trendline. It is a key support zone for the pair.

Q3: How can traders manage risk during a triangle breakout?
Traders should wait for a confirmed close outside the triangle boundaries before entering a trade. Using stop-loss orders below the breakout point or recent swing lows helps limit potential losses. Position sizing should account for the expected increase in volatility.

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1390 ​​with a target of 1.1550 and a stop-loss at 1.1320

• Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1540 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1600

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate faced strong selling pressure during last week’s trading. This came after the US Federal Reserve reinforced market expectations that tight monetary policy will persist for longer than anticipated, pushing the currency pair to its lowest level in nearly 11 weeks near the 1.1418 level during Tuesday’s trading session.

Although the Euro managed to trim some of its losses by the end of the week, the pair’s direction in the coming period will remain captive to the balance between US inflation concerns and the monetary policy paths of both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).

Technically, the overall trend for the EUR/USD pair remains tilted toward the negative (bearish) side as long as trading stabilizes below the main resistance zone of 1.1550 – 1.1600. Breaking the 1.1450 level reinforces the chances of targeting the 1.1400 and then 1.1300 zones in the coming weeks. Its recent losses are pushing technical indicators closer to oversold lines, as is the case with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicator.

Conversely, if buyers manage to regain control and break through the nearby resistance levels, this could pave the way for an upward rebound towards 1.1700 and then 1.1800 in the medium term.

In general, the performance of the EUR/USD pair during the current trading week will remain primarily linked to US inflation data and statements from Federal Reserve officials, along with any new indications regarding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy direction. These factors could determine the future direction of one of the most traded currency pairs in global markets.

Federal Reserve Policies and Dollar Strength

Last week, the Federal Reserve kept US interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, a decision that aligned with market expectations. However, the surprise came in the updated economic projections, where half of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members indicated a potential need for further interest rate hikes by the end of 2026.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments also supported the dollar, as he affirmed the US central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. This reinforced investors’ bets on continued monetary tightening in the coming months.

Concurrently, the likelihood of another US interest rate hike increased, which contributed to increased demand for the dollar and pushed the EUR/USD pair further down.

Will the Euro’s Losses Continue?

Danske Bank believes that the downward pressure on the EUR/USD is not over yet, maintaining its forecast for the pair to drop to the 1.12 support level over the next twelve months—a level below the market consensus average. The bank believes that tightening global financial conditions will negatively impact the pace of economic growth, which has already been reflected in the performance of equity markets and cyclically linked currencies, playing in favor of the US Dollar as a more attractive safe haven.

The bank also maintains its expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two more times next year, with an increasing likelihood of an earlier tightening cycle if US economic data continues to outperform expectations.

On the other hand, ING Bank adopts a more balanced view toward the pair’s movement. While it acknowledges that the Dollar is currently benefiting from tight monetary policy expectations, it questions the Federal Reserve’s ability to execute further interest rate increases. The bank believes that inflationary pressures could ease significantly next year, and the strength of the US labor market still requires further confirmation. Therefore, it expects the EUR/USD pair to remain under pressure over the next two months near the 1.14 – 1.15 levels before beginning to recover gradually.

According to the bank’s estimates, the pair could rise to 1.18 by the end of the year if US economic data comes in weaker than expected and fails to justify further monetary tightening.

Trading Advice:

It is preferable for traders to monitor stronger gains that could serve as selling targets. Meawhile, maintaining strict risk management in light of the ongoing market uncertainty.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD analysis and predictions? Here are the best European brokers to choose from.

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Hawkish Fed Expectations Keep US Dollar Supported

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged lower on Tuesday as investors reacted to the latest UK purchasing managers’ index data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading close to $1.3224, down roughly 0.2% compared with Tuesday’s opening levels.

The Pound (GBP) came under selling pressure on Tuesday after fresh survey data painted a weaker-than-expected picture of the UK economy.

Markets had anticipated that June’s preliminary PMI figures would show a return to growth in the UK’s dominant services sector. Instead, the data revealed that activity contracted at a faster pace than in the previous month, dampening confidence in the economic outlook.

The disappointing release prompted investors to further scale back expectations for future Bank of England (BoE) policy tightening. Some analysts now believe the central bank could keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2026.

The US Dollar (USD) remained firmly bid throughout Tuesday’s session as markets continued to digest the implications of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.

Demand for the ‘Greenback’ was underpinned by expectations that US interest rates may stay elevated for an extended period, with investors increasingly embracing a higher-for-longer outlook.

Although the Fed left borrowing costs unchanged at its most recent meeting, officials struck a relatively hawkish tone, indicating that further policy tightening cannot be ruled out should inflationary pressures prove stubborn.

Additional support for USD came from a cautious market mood, as weakness across global technology stocks encouraged investors to seek the safety of traditional haven assets.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Political Developments Could Drive Sterling

With little in the way of major economic releases scheduled over the next couple of days, movements in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate may be driven largely by developments on the UK political front.

As Andy Burnham looks all but guaranteed to succeed Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, investors are increasingly focused on who may be selected for key cabinet positions. In particular, any indications regarding the next Chancellor could have implications for market sentiment toward the UK.

Sterling traders may also pay close attention to comments from BoE policymaker Sarah Breeden on Wednesday. Given her reputation as one of the more dovish members of the Monetary Policy Committee, any suggestion that rates are likely to remain on hold could weigh on the Pound.

For the US Dollar, broader market sentiment may remain the primary driver in the near term, with investors awaiting a series of high-profile US economic releases due later in the week.

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