2026.07.17 2026.07.17 USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 17.07.26–24.07.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 161.55 with a target of 166.50–170.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 161.55. Stop Loss: below 161.00, Take Profit: 166.50–170.00.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 161.55 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 159.86–158.90. A sell signal: the level of 161.55 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 162.10, Take Profit: 159.86–158.90.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 161.55 with a target of 166.50–170.00.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 161.55 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 159.86–158.90.
Analysis
On the weekly time frame, an ascending third wave of larger degree 3 has formed, a downward correction has been completed as the fourth wave 4, and the fifth wave 5 is developing. On the daily chart, the third wave of smaller degree (3) of 5 appears to be developing, with wave 3 of (3) forming as its part. On the H4 time frame, wave i of 3 has formed, a local correction has been completed as wave ii of 3, and wave iii of 3 is developing. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to rise to 166.50–170.00. The level of 161.55 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 159.86–158.90.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
At 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil was priced at $86.09 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (we’ll explain different benchmarks later in this article). That’s an increase of $1.45 compared with yesterday morning and around $16 higher than the price one year ago.
Oil price per barrel
% Change
Price of oil yesterday
$84.64
+1.71%
Price of oil 1 month ago
$80.56
+6.86%
Price of oil 1 year ago
$70.10
+22.81%
Price of oil yesterday
Oil price per barrel
$84.64
% Change
+1.71%
Price of oil 1 month ago
Oil price per barrel
$80.56
% Change
+6.86%
Price of oil 1 year ago
Oil price per barrel
$70.10
% Change
+22.81%
Will oil prices go up?
It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.
How oil prices translate to gas pump prices
Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.
Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”
The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.
It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.
How oil and natural gas prices are linked
Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:
Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America
Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:
The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.
All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.
Energy coverage from Fortune
Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:
Frequently asked questions
How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change during the day?
The price of oil updates constantly when the “futures” markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.
How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy we’ll have—and the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.
How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?
When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but it’s also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as it’s more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.
The GBPJPY pair lost the bullish momentum yesterday after recording 219.25 level, which forces it to activate the attempts of gathering gains, forming some negative corrective trading by reaching 218.45.
The price keeps forming corrective trading, attempting to test 217.90 level reaching the bullish channel’s support at 217.65, it will not affect the main bullish scenario, depending on forming main support at 216.30 level against the bullish trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 217.90 and 219.20
Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bullish trend.
2026.07.17 2026.07.17 WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 17.07.26–24.07.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 70.40 with a target of 91.80–105.17. A buy signal: the price holds above 70.40. Stop Loss: below 68.90, Take Profit: 91.80–105.17.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 70.40 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 62.00–58.50. A sell signal: the level of 70.40 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 71.90, Take Profit: 62.00–58.50.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 70.40 with a target of 91.80–105.17.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 70.40 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 62.00–58.50.
Analysis
A descending correction appears to have formed as the second wave of larger degree (2) on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily time frame, an ascending third wave (3) is likely developing. Within it, the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) has formed, a downward correction has been completed as the second wave 2 of (3), and wave 3 of (3) has started forming. Wave i of 3 is likely forming on the H4 chart, with wave (iii) of i unfolding as its part. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 91.80–105.17. The level of 70.40 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 62.00–58.50.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
The Euro has been very choppy against the Japanese yen on Thursday, continuing the overall sideways action that we have seen for weeks. The interest rate differential continues to be an issue that moves the market as well.
EUR/JPY
The Euro has been very quiet against the Japanese Yen during trading here on Thursday as we are reaching the top of the overall consolidation area that we’ve been in for basically 6 weeks. That being said, we now have a situation where traders are trying to sort out whether or not we can finally break above the 186.50 Yen level. If we can break above there, then I think that is a very good sign, and it could have this market streaming towards the 188 Yen level given enough time.
Technical Breakout Potentials and Yen Weakness
Short-term pullbacks, I think, continue to look at the 50-day EMA and the 185 Yen level. Both offer quite a bit of support. Ultimately, this is a market that I don’t have any interest in shorting because, quite frankly, the interest rate differential favors the Euro over the Japanese Yen. And of course, the Japanese Yen simply cannot seem to get a break in general. This seems to be a situation that the Bank of Japan cannot ignore.
While we are at the top of a range and I fully recognize that it is possible traders will look at this as a potential barrier, if we do break out, then I think we get a bigger move again to the 188 Yen level, possibly the 190 Yen level. I like the idea of buying short-term dips, and I recognize that the Japanese Yen in general is in trouble against multiple currencies, not just this one. So, I think this is more of an indictment of the Yen itself.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
Coffee price lost its bullish momentum in its last trading, forcing it to provide some bearish corrective trading by targeting 324.50 level, note that the contradiction of the main indicators might push the price to provide mixed sideways trading, however the main stability above 275.90 level forms an important support level that makes us keep the bullish scenario in the near and medium period trading.
The price needs a new bullish momentum, to step above 320.00 level, reinforcing the chances of forming new bullish waves, targeting 333.60 level initially, repeating the pressure on the barrier at 350.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 310.50 and 333.60
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) rebounded towards the 1.3400 level after a mixed batch of US economic data failed to extend the US Dollar’s recent gains.
Headline US retail sales rose 0.2% in June, matching expectations, while the closely watched control group increased a stronger-than-expected 0.5%, pointing to resilient underlying consumer demand. However, core retail sales excluding autos unexpectedly fell 0.2%, tempering enthusiasm for the Dollar despite a further decline in weekly jobless claims that reinforced the strength of the US labour market.
Investors continue to weigh evidence of resilient US economic activity against signs that consumer spending is becoming more selective, while expectations for Federal Reserve policy and developments in the Middle East remain key drivers of Dollar sentiment.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Unable to Make Headway
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has continued to trade around 1.3400 and is currently trading just below this level with no attempt to break key resistance.
Scotiabank noted; “the GBP’s recovery from its June 24 low (~1.3150) looks to have stalled over the past week or so, with apparent resistance above 1.3400.”
It added; “We see dense resistance ahead of 1.3500, and we look to a near-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450.”
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ING has a 3-month GBP/USD target of 1.31 as the dollar makes headway.
Following today’s retail sales report, markets remain divided over whether resilient consumer demand will be enough to keep the Federal Reserve on a hawkish path, particularly after softer CPI and PPI inflation data earlier this week.
ING commented; “While soft US CPI data has taken the sting out of the dollar’s upside, it is probably too early to look for a much lower dollar just yet.”
According to MUFG; “Despite the muted FX reaction, the scale of weakness in the CPI report certainly helps weaken the key pillar of support for the dollar – the prospect of a near-term hike. That can open up scope for further dollar depreciation. However, it is difficult to trade with conviction given the re-escalation in the conflict in the Middle East and the 13% surge in crude oil prices this week.”
In testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, new Fed Chair Warsh maintained a generally hawkish stance.
He stated that the central bank has “no tolerance” for persistently elevated inflation, and vowed to “do my job” if challenged by U.S. President Donald Trump.
He also stated that he is committed to the dual mandate of 2% inflation and maximum employment.
MUFG commented; “The testimony from Fed Chair Warsh looks to have curtailed the move weaker for the dollar. Just like following his first FOMC meeting, Warsh spoke with conviction in relation to the Fed achieving its 2% inflation goal. The CPI print was not “mission accomplished” and he wasn’t going to “cherry pick” data.
The bank added; “We don’t really view this as “hawkish” given he is merely promising to focus on what is the legal mandate of the Federal Reserve. However, he again is emphasising his inflation fighting credentials.”
According to Scotiabank; “We remain of the view that Fed tightening risks this year are mispriced and soft CPI data this morning (plus the soft NFP report for June) may act to curb some of the market’s enthusiasm for rate hikes.”
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Platinum price kept its negative stability below the extra barrier at $1690.00, keeping the bearish corrective scenario, forming strong bearish waves, to settle near $1585.00.
Providing negative momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of surpassing $1560.00 level, reinforcing the chances of reaching $1532.00, where surpassing it will open the way for reaching new bearish stations that begin at $1490.00 and $1440.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1530.00 and $1620.00
U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to the Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Retail Sales increased by +0.2% month-over-month in June, in line with analyst estimates. Retail Sales Ex Autos declined by -0.2%, compared to analyst forecast of -0.1%.
Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 208,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst consensus of 217.000. The report showed that labor market remained in decent shape, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.
Silver price (XAG/USD) remains subdued for the third successive day, trading around $55.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Silver is on track to drop over 7% this week as escalating Middle East tensions drive oil prices up. This surge in energy costs has kept inflation and interest rate concerns at the absolute forefront of investors’ minds, pulling momentum away from the non-yielding precious metal.
Reuters reported on Thursday that Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi militia to stand ready to close the critical Red Sea oil route if the United States strikes Iranian power infrastructure, presenting a potent new threat to global energy supplies. Amplifying these concerns, the Tasnim news agency reported explosions in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Ahvaz, while very loud explosions were also heard in Kuwait and as far away as Basra.
These geopolitical flare-ups follow threats made earlier this week by US President Donald Trump, who stated the US would strike Iran’s bridges and power plants next week if the country does not return to the negotiating table.
Meanwhile, this week’s softer-than-expected US inflation data has effectively eliminated the chance of a July rate hike, even as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterates his strict commitment to fighting inflation and restoring price stability. However, the market remains sharply divided over whether the Fed will resume tightening in September. This lingering uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on Silver, keeping the non-yielding metals under pressure.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
