USD/JPY edged higher to 159.33 but quickly retreated. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Above 159.24 will target 160.71 high. Strong resistance is expected from there to start the third leg of the near term corrective pattern. On the downside, break of 157.30 support will turn bias to the downside for retesting 155.01.
In the bigger picture, for now, corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) is still seen as completed at 139.87. Rise from there is seen as resuming the long term up trend. So, break of 161.94 is expected at a later stage to resume the long term up trend. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 154.36) will dampen this view and bring deeper fall back towards 139.87 to extend the pattern from 161.94.
May 22 (Reuters) – Barclays is maintaining its 2026 average Brent crude oil price forecast at $100 a barrel though risks are skewing higher, the bank said in a note on Friday.
In trading on Friday, Brent futures were at about $105 a barrel as investors doubted the prospects of a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran peace talks, while the key Strait of Hormuz stayed closed. [O/R]
Around 20% of global energy supplies transited the strait before the war, and the conflict has removed 14 million barrels per day of oil – or 14% of global supply – from the market from suppliers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait.
“Inventory trends are signaling a 6-8 (million bpd) deficit with the U.S. inventories within reach of the lowest levels since 2020,” the bank said.
Barclays said that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to fully reopen today, the starting point for inventories even in the most optimistic scenario will be roughly 20 million barrel below the tightest level in recent history.
Meanwhile, demand remains largely resilient and any weakness in the end uses linked to industrial activity will likely recover strongly if supply normalizes quickly, the bank added.
(Reporting by Noel John in Bengaluru; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)
The EURGBP provided a new negative close below the minor bearish channel’s resistance at 0.8685, forming several bearish waves, to settle near 0.8645 level, confirming the dominance of the previously suggested bearish trend.
By the above image, we notice the stability of moving average 55 near the main resistance, besides stochastic attempt to reach the oversold level will increase the negative pressure on the current period trading, which makes us prefer targeting new negative stations that might begin at 0.8610 and 0.8585.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8610 and 0.8640
2026.05.22 2026.05.22 WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 22.05.26–29.05.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 93.30 with a target of 115.70–126.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 93.30. Stop Loss: below 91.50, Take Profit: 115.70–126.00.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 93.30 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00. A sell signal: the level of 93.30 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 95.00, Take Profit: 78.70–65.00.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 93.30 with a target of 115.70–126.00.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 93.30 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00.
Analysis
A descending correction appears to have formed as the second wave of larger degree (2) on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily time frame, an ascending third wave (3) has started unfolding, with the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) still developing as its part. Wave v of 1 is presumably developing on the H4 time frame, with wave (iii) of v unfolding as its part. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 115.70–126.00. The level of 93.30 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
The GBPJPY pair continued forming weak sideways trading, to keep fluctuating near 213.50 level, announcing its affection by continuous accumulation phase before it begins the previously suggested corrective trend, reminding you that the negative scenario depends on forming main barrier at 214.50 level against the current trading.
Therefore, we will keep waiting to gather the extra negative momentum, which allows it to reach below 212.80 level, to begin targeting corrective stations by reaching 211.80 followed by 210.45 support.
The expected trading range for today is between 211.80 and 213.95
Copper price was forced to provide weak trading due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction against the negative stability below the barrier at $6.3800 level, to force it to delay the corrective decline and hold near $6.2800 level.
Note that confirming the dominance of the bearish corrective trend needs to break the initial support at $6.1000, to ease the mission of the corrective stations, which might begin at $5.9500 and $58000, while surpassing the barrier will provide a chance for recording some gains, to expect attacking the resistance near $6.5800.
The expected trading range for today is between $6.1000 and$6.3500
EUR/JPY remains flat for the second consecutive day, trading around 184.70 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross is positioned on the upper boundary of an emerging descending wedge pattern, indicating a potential for a bullish reversal.
However, the EUR/JPY cross is holding beneath both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping the near-term bias capped despite the broader uptrend. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits around 47, pointing to neutral momentum and suggesting the recent pullback is consolidating rather than impulsive for now.
The immediate resistance lies at the confluence around nine-day EMA of 184.76, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.85 and the upper boundary of the descending wedge. A successful break above this zone would support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
A failure to break the descending wedge would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the three-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, followed by a five-month low of 180.81, which was reached on February 12.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.08%
0.06%
0.03%
0.11%
0.21%
0.08%
0.06%
EUR
-0.08%
-0.02%
-0.04%
0.02%
0.15%
0.00%
-0.04%
GBP
-0.06%
0.02%
-0.04%
0.05%
0.15%
0.03%
-0.03%
JPY
-0.03%
0.04%
0.04%
0.09%
0.17%
0.04%
-0.01%
CAD
-0.11%
-0.02%
-0.05%
-0.09%
0.08%
-0.05%
-0.08%
AUD
-0.21%
-0.15%
-0.15%
-0.17%
-0.08%
-0.13%
-0.19%
NZD
-0.08%
-0.01%
-0.03%
-0.04%
0.05%
0.13%
-0.05%
CHF
-0.06%
0.04%
0.03%
0.00%
0.08%
0.19%
0.05%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Copper price took advantage of the initial support near $6.1000 by forming positive rebound, to settle near $6.2500 level, attempting to delay the previously suggested corrective trend, the continuation of forming extra barrier at $6.3800 level might force the price to renew the corrective attempts, to press on $6.1000 level breaking it will extend the trading towards $5.5900 reaching $5.8000 level.
While surpassing the barrier and holding above it will confirm its readiness to renew the bullish attempts, attempting to reach $6.5400 initially, which might record historical targets by its rally towards $6.7300.
The expected trading range for today is between $6.000 and $6.3500
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded erratically on Thursday as markets digested the UK’s latest PMI releases.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3444, virtually unchanged on the day.
The Pound (GBP) traded unevenly on Thursday following the release of the UK’s latest flash PMIs for May, with investors weighing a sharp slowdown in services activity against signs of persistent price pressures.
The services PMI unexpectedly fell into contraction territory, sliding from 52.7 to 47.9. This was well below forecasts for a more modest dip to 51.7 and pointed to a notable loss of momentum in the UK’s dominant sector.
However, the report was not uniformly negative for Sterling. The survey also indicated that underlying inflationary pressures were building, strengthening expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could raise interest rates later this year.
As a result, GBP struggled to find a clear direction, with weak growth signals pulling against renewed BoE rate hike bets.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) traded without conviction on Thursday, with investors finding little reason to make decisive moves on the currency.
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The safe-haven ‘Greenback’ drew limited support from the broader market mood, as a mixed tone across global trade failed to generate meaningful demand for safer assets.
At the same time, a quiet US data calendar left USD without a domestic catalyst, keeping the currency subdued through the session.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Retail Sales Slump to Drag on the Pound?
Looking ahead, Friday’s UK retail sales data could inject fresh volatility into the Pound US Dollar exchange rate.
April’s figures are forecast to show a 0.6% decline in sales growth, which may weigh on the Pound if the data points to weaker consumer spending.
For the US Dollar, the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index could drive movement later in the day. Confirmation that US morale weakened in May may leave the ‘Greenback’ on the defensive.
However, wider market sentiment could also shape GBP/USD trade. Any escalation in Middle East tensions could sour risk appetite, potentially boosting safe-haven demand for the US Dollar and pulling the pairing lower.
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Silver (XAG/USD) is seen building on the previous day’s bounce from the vicinity of a nearly two-week low, around the $73.00 neighborhood, and gaining positive traction for the second straight day on Thursday. The white metal climbs above mid-$76.00s during the Asian session, though it remains below the weekly high set on Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD currently trades just below the $76.75 confluence hurdle – comprising the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent downfall from the monthly peak. A sustained strength beyond the said barrier will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for a further near-term appreciating move.
Constructive momentum indicators on the 1-hour chart hint that selling pressure is moderating rather than accelerating. The Relative Strength Index is near 57, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is holding slightly above zero. Hence, a clear breakout through the aforementioned hurdle could lift the XAG/USD to the 38.2% Fibo. at $79.21 and then the 50% level at $81.14.
On the downside, the main structural floor emerges at the cycle low and Fibonacci anchor around $72.97, where buyers would be expected to show more determined interest if the current pullback extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
XAG/USD 1-hour chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
