The GBPJPY pair repeated providing weak sideways trading by its stability near 208.45 level, affected by the continuation of forming an obstacle at 280.10 level against the attempts of resuming the bearish trend, noticing the attempt of stochastic to exit the oversold level, which reinforces the dominance of the sideways range bias in the current trading, with a chance to retest the initial barrier near 210.40.

Achieving the required break and holding below 208.10 level will confirm its readiness to target more negative stations by reaching 206.70 initially, followed by 205.85.

The expected trading range for today is between 208.10 and 209.45

Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bearish trend

Domestic coffee prices

Coffee prices today in the domestic market increased by at least 200 VND/kg. According to giacaphe. com, the average coffee price on September 11 remained at 95,700 VND/kg, anchored in the price range of 95,200-95,800 VND/kg.

In Gia Lai and Dak Lak, coffee prices were recorded at 95,700 VND/kg, an increase of 200 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, the listed coffee price is at 95,200 VND/kg, an increase of 200 VND/kg.

The old Dak Nong area alone increased by 300 VND/kg, recording a level of 95,800 VND/kg.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 25,710 VND/USD, down 40 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

In the world market, coffee prices increase and decrease interspersed.

According to Barchart, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract today maintained an increase of 14 USD/ton, anchored at the mark of 3,442 USD/ton. In the same direction, the November 2026 term was listed at 3,554 USD/ton, an additional increase of 82 USD/ton. The term from January 2027 to May 2027 witnessed the highest increase of 48 USD/ton, to 3,472 – 3,510 USD/ton.

Meanwhile, the September 2026 Arabica futures contract decreased by 3.9 cents/lb (equivalent to 1.22%), down to the 315.30 cent/lb mark. The December 2026 term has the same decrease, offered to the market at a price of 288.15 cents/lb. Further forwards are anchored in the 274.65 – 279.45 cent/lb range, down from 4.20-4.60 cents/lb.

Assessments and forecasts

Coffee prices fluctuated in opposite directions, with Arabica falling to a 7-week low, while Robusta rose to a 1.5-week high. Arabica coffee prices fell in yesterday’s trading session after the International Coffee Organization (ICO) issued a forecast for record global coffee production and oversupply.

ICO forecasts that global coffee production in the 2025/26 crop year will increase by 4.4% compared to the same period, reaching a record 183.6 million bags, while consumption will decrease by 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. This caused the global coffee market to have a surplus of 3 million bags, marking the first time the market has had oversupply in 5 years.

Brazil’s termination of the coffee harvest is boosting arabica supply and putting pressure on prices.

In addition, higher rainfall than normal in Brazil may promote the flowering process for next year’s coffee crop, thereby becoming a factor putting downward pressure on prices.

Robusta coffee prices are supported by concerns that heavy rain in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, the largest coffee production region in the country, could flood farms and damage the coffee crop.

In Thursday’s session last week, Robusta prices fell to a 3-month low due to signs that coffee supply from Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, is increasing.

Concerns that the El Nino weather phenomenon may cause damage to the Brazilian coffee crop next year are also factors supporting prices. El Nino may cause rainfall in Brazil to be delayed in September and October, when coffee trees usually bloom, thereby affecting the 2026/27 Brazilian coffee crop.

U.S. August PPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, rising to 5.4% year-over-year. Data from the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the Producer Price Index for August rose 0.4% month-over-month, in line with market expectations and higher than the revised 0.1% in July; the year-over-year gain accelerated from 4.8% to 5.4%. Among components, energy prices rose 4.2% in a single month, with diesel prices surging 24.1%. Following the release of the data, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September rose from around 62% to 70%.

Average U.S. diesel price tops $6 per gallon for the first time in history. GasBuddy data showed that the average national diesel price rose above $6 per gallon for the first time on Thursday. Because diesel is widely used in trucking, logistics, and agriculture, high fuel costs could further pass through to goods and service prices, drawing increased attention to the impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation.

Middle East conflict expands further as both WTI and Brent top $100. Iran claimed it had attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. struck five Iranian tankers. Meanwhile, Iran-backed Houthi rebels seized control of Yemen’s Mocha port, extending supply risks from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea. OPEC also lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 380,000 barrels per day, but supply disruption risks continue to dominate short-term oil prices.

ECB raises interest rates by another 25 bps, pushing deposit rate to 2.5%. The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the second time this year, primarily to address energy inflation triggered by the war in the Middle East. The ECB expects the average inflation rate in the eurozone to reach 3.0% in 2026 and upgraded its economic growth forecast from 0.8% to 0.9%. Lagarde stated that there remain clear upside risks to the inflation outlook.

Oracle beats earnings expectations, shares up about 4% after hours. Oracle (ORCL) reported a 30% year-over-year increase in first-quarter revenue to $19.3 billion, topping market expectations of $19.14 billion; adjusted EPS came in at $1.92, above the expected $1.74. The company added more than $30 billion in new AI cloud contracts during the quarter, bringing its remaining performance obligations to $664 billion, and raised its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS forecast to $8.10.

Adobe beats revenue and earnings estimates, but shares fall about 2% after hours. Adobe (ADBE) posted third-quarter revenue of $6.76 billion, beating market estimates of $6.7 billion; adjusted EPS was $6.13, also topping expectations of $6.09. However, the midpoint of the company’s fourth-quarter revenue guidance was approximately $6.825 billion, slightly below market expectations of $6.85 billion, sending its stock down about 1.9% in after-hours trading.

Pentagon reportedly considering $5 billion loan to AI cloud company Fluidstack. The U.S. Department of Defense is discussing providing a loan of approximately $5 billion to Fluidstack through its Office of Strategic Capital, according to The Wall Street Journal. The funds will primarily be used to strengthen the supply chain and manufacturing capabilities for U.S. data center components, rather than directly constructing new AI data centers. The plan reflects that the U.S. government is increasingly viewing AI infrastructure as a strategic industry.

U.S. decision on refined copper tariffs reportedly delayed. Sources said the White House is still evaluating the pros and cons of imposing tariffs on refined copper, partly out of concern that higher copper prices could further push up manufacturing costs. Following the reports, copper prices fell more than 4%, while copper mining stocks such as Freeport-McMoRan plunged in tandem.

The table below lists the ten most actively traded stocks in the market. Supported by massive trading volumes and excellent liquidity, these assets have become key benchmarks for tracking global market dynamics.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.

Domestic coffee prices

Today’s coffee prices in the domestic market mostly remained in the old price range, except for the old Dak Nong area. According to giacaphe. com, the average coffee price on September 10 remained at 95,500 VND/kg, down slightly 100 VND/kg.

In Gia Lai and Dak Lak, coffee prices were recorded at 95,500 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, the listed coffee price is at 95,000 VND/kg.

The old Dak Nong area alone decreased by 300 VND/kg, recording a level of 95,500 VND/kg.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank is recorded at 25,750 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

In the world market, coffee prices are filled with green color on all terms.

According to Barchart, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract today reversed to increase by 14 USD/ton, anchored at the mark of 3,442 USD/ton. In the opposite direction, the November 2026 futures were listed at 3,472 USD/ton, up 14 USD/ton. The term from January 2027 to May 2027 witnessed the highest increase of 19 USD/ton, to 3,439 – 3,462 USD/ton.

In the same direction, Arabica futures for September 2026 increased slightly by 0.75 cents/lb (equivalent to 0.24%), reaching 319.20 cents/lb. For December 2026, with the same increase, it was offered to the market at a price of 292.05 cents/lb. Further forwards are anchored in the range of 279.2 – 283.65 cents/lb.

Assessments and forecasts

Coffee prices closed the session up, with Robusta reaching a 1-week high. Short-term supply contraction is a factor supporting Arabica coffee prices, as Arabica inventories at ICE fell to a 27-year low, to 218,838 bags on Tuesday.

Robusta coffee prices are also supported by concerns that heavy rain in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, the largest coffee production region in the country, could flood farms and damage the coffee crop.

Coffee exports increased sharply from Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta producer, which is a factor putting pressure on Robusta prices. Vietnam’s coffee exports in 2025 increased by 17.5% compared to the previous year, to 1.58 million tons. In addition, Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2025/26 crop is forecast to increase by 6% compared to the same period, reaching the highest level in 4 years at 1.76 million tons, equivalent to 29.4 million bags.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts global Arabica production to increase by 12% over the same period, while Robusta production is forecast to decrease by 0.7%. Global end-of-year inventories are forecast to increase by an additional 1.9 million bags, to 26.3 million bags.

HSBC has sharply raised its Brent crude price forecast for 2026, lifting its outlook from $80 to $90 per barrel as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz drags on with no resolution in sight. The bank’s senior oil analyst, Kim Fustier, said global oil markets are unlikely to find balance again until the middle of 2027, a timeline that points to months of tight supply and elevated prices ahead.

Key takeaways

• HSBC raised its 2026 Brent crude forecast from $80 to $90 per barrel and its 2027 outlook from $65 to $85 per barrel.
• Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped to about 6 million barrels per day, roughly 30% of pre-conflict levels.
• A US-Iran memorandum meant to stabilize transit through the strait collapsed in July 2026.
• According to HSBC’s projections, flows are set to climb gradually, reaching 8 million bpd by the close of 2026 before hitting 9.5 million bpd by mid-2027.
• Brent could spike to $120 per barrel if diplomatic efforts keep failing, before easing sometime in 2027.

HSBC Revises Brent Crude Price Forecast Amid Strait of Hormuz Crisis

HSBC’s revision marks one of the clearest signals yet that major banks now view the Hormuz disruption as a lasting feature of the oil market rather than a passing shock. The bank’s updated Brent crude price forecast reflects a market where supply constraints are expected to persist well into next year, not just through the current quarter.

2026 and 2027 Price Outlook Increases

The 2026 forecast climbed from $80 to $90 per barrel, but the more striking move came further out. HSBC also raised its 2027 Brent outlook to $85 per barrel, up sharply from a prior $65 estimate. That’s a $20 jump for a year in which, in calmer conditions, analysts might have expected prices to have already normalized. Looking further ahead, HSBC’s assumption for 2028 and beyond sits at $75 per barrel, suggesting the bank sees some cooling off eventually, but not a full return to the sub-$70 environment that prevailed before the crisis began.

Current Elevated Brent Prices Reflect Structural Supply Stress

Brent crude prices have climbed past $100 per barrel lately amid intensifying shipping attacks in the region, yet HSBC’s updated figures—though lower than current spot prices—reflect the bank’s outlook for where prices will land once the initial panic subsides. That distinction matters: a forecast below the current trading price isn’t a bet on relief so much as a signal that HSBC views today’s premium as partly driven by short-term volatility on top of a genuinely tighter underlying supply picture.

Impact of Strait of Hormuz Crisis on Global Oil Supply

The Strait of Hormuz oil crisis is the reason behind HSBC’s entire recalibration. This narrow waterway between Iran and Oman normally carries roughly a fifth of the world’s daily oil consumption, and its disruption has rewritten supply assumptions across the industry.

Supply Disruption and Diplomatic Setbacks

Oil flows through the strait have stabilized at around 6 million barrels per day, about 30% of pre-conflict levels, according to HSBC’s analysis. That collapse followed a failed diplomatic push: a US-Iran memorandum of understanding designed to stabilize transit through the strait fell apart in July 2026, removing the market’s main hope for a quick fix. Fustier’s note comes in the direct aftermath of that failure, and it explains why HSBC is no longer treating the disruption as temporary.

Why it matters: a fifth of global oil consumption depends on a waterway that is currently operating at less than a third of its normal throughput. Any further deterioration in the diplomatic relationship between Washington and Tehran could keep that bottleneck in place for far longer than markets initially priced in.

Projected Oil Flow Recovery Timeline

HSBC does still see a path back toward normal, just a slow one. By mid-2027, the bank projects flows will climb to 9.5 million bpd, following a gradual rise to 8 million bpd by the end of 2026. Even under that relatively optimistic trajectory, transit volumes would remain well below historical norms for more than a year, which is exactly why the bank pushed its 2027 forecast up so aggressively.

Potential Market Scenarios and Price Volatility Risks

HSBC’s global oil supply disruption scenario isn’t the only possible outcome, and the bank has laid out what happens if diplomacy keeps failing instead of stabilizing.

Price Spike Risks if Diplomatic Failures Persist

In a stalemate scenario, where negotiations keep collapsing and transit volumes stay depressed, Fustier’s analysis points to Brent surging as high as $120 per barrel before moderating sometime in 2027. That figure underscores how sensitive this market remains to political developments in the Gulf: a single failed round of talks, as seen in July 2026, was enough to force a $10 upward revision in the 2026 forecast alone.

Longer-Term Price Normalization Expectations

Beyond the immediate volatility, HSBC’s broader HSBC oil price outlook assumes the market eventually settles into a new, somewhat higher normal. The bank’s 2028-and-beyond assumption of $75 per barrel implies that even a resolved Hormuz crisis would leave a lasting mark on pricing, since rebuilding shipping confidence and restoring full transit volumes tends to take longer than the initial disruption itself. Until flows return closer to their pre-conflict baseline, oil markets are unlikely to rebalance, and HSBC’s own timeline for that puts the turning point around the middle of 2027.

FAQ

Why did HSBC raise its Brent crude price forecast for 2026?

HSBC raised its 2026 Brent crude price forecast because the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved, causing prolonged disruptions to global oil supply.

How much has oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz dropped?

Oil flows through the strait have dropped to around 6 million barrels per day, about 30% of the volume seen before the conflict began.

What is the outlook for oil flow recovery through the Strait of Hormuz?

HSBC expects oil flows to gradually recover to 8 million barrels per day by the end of 2026 and 9.5 million barrels per day by mid-2027.

What could happen if diplomatic efforts to stabilize oil transit continue to fail?

If diplomatic efforts keep failing, HSBC’s analysis suggests Brent crude prices could spike to $120 per barrel before moderating sometime in 2027.

Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.