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27 07, 2026

The GBPJPY is unchanged– Forecast today – 27-7-2026

By |2026-07-27T09:55:21+03:00July 27, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The GBPJPY pair continued forming sideways trading, to notice its continued fluctuations near 218.40 level without recording any new positive target due to the contradiction between its stability below 218.65 barriers against the attempt of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, specifically by stochastic reach to 80 level.

 

In general, the main scenario remains bullish, depending on the stability of the initial main support at 216.55, which makes us wait for breaching the current barrier, to begin targeting the positive stations and expect reaching 219.40 initially, putting a pressure on the psychological barrier at 220.00.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 217.85 and 219.40

 

Trend forecast: Bullish



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27 07, 2026

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Consolidates near 187.00, bulls target 188.00

By |2026-07-27T05:54:32+03:00July 27, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • EUR/JPY remains capped within 186.00-187.00 as intervention fears linger.
  • RSI holds bullish territory, signaling buyers retain momentum advantage.
  • Break above 187.00 exposes YTD high and 190.00 resistance.

The EUR/JPY consolidates around 186.00, edges down by 0.06% amid a souring of risk appetite amid the escalation of the US-Iran war, and strengthens safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The EUR/JPY trades sideways, after reaching the year-to-date (YTD) high of 187.95. The cross-pair dipped towards the 183.00 area following the BoJ’s last intervention, and since then, buyers have reclaimed key resistance levels to reach the 186.00 mark.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY remains capped within the 186.00-187.00 range, amid fears that Japanese authorities could intervene in the foreign exchange markets. But bulls seem to be gaining momentum, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is in bullish territory.

Buyers need to clear 187.00 to challenge the YTD high at 187.95. Once those levels are taken out, the next resistance would be the 189.00 mark ahead of the 190.00 psychological level. 

On the other hand, if sellers push the EUR/JPY below the July 20 low of  185.35, it exacerbates a move towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 185.20, followed by the 100-day SMA at 185.05. Downwards lies the 200-day SMA at 183.29.

EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily

EUR/JPY daily chart

Japanese Yen Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD 0.02% -0.04% 0.00% 0.07% -0.17% -0.25% 0.19%
EUR -0.02% -0.08% -0.06% 0.00% -0.25% -0.34% 0.12%
GBP 0.04% 0.08% 0.04% 0.11% -0.16% -0.22% 0.22%
JPY 0.00% 0.06% -0.04% 0.08% -0.19% -0.27% 0.17%
CAD -0.07% -0.01% -0.11% -0.08% -0.27% -0.35% 0.10%
AUD 0.17% 0.25% 0.16% 0.19% 0.27% -0.07% 0.35%
NZD 0.25% 0.34% 0.22% 0.27% 0.35% 0.07% 0.43%
CHF -0.19% -0.12% -0.22% -0.17% -0.10% -0.35% -0.43%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

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27 07, 2026

Pound Sterling Tipped To Fall Against Euro And Dollar, Crédit Agricole Warns

By |2026-07-27T01:53:51+03:00July 27, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Analysts forecast the pound to euro and dollar exchange rates to weaken as UK fiscal concerns and excessive Bank of England rate-hike pricing undermine the GBP.

The bank forecasts the Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate at 1.32 by September and 1.31 by the end of 2026, while EUR/GBP is expected to rise to 0.86.

That EUR/GBP forecast equates to a Pound-to-Euro rate of approximately 1.1630, compared with current levels around 1.1702.

GBP/USD was trading near 1.3334 at the latest update, having recovered modestly from July’s low at 1.3221 but remaining more than two cents below the monthly high at 1.3558.

The Pound-to-Euro rate has also retreated from July’s 1.1827 peak, although it remains approximately 0.8% higher for the month and 2.1% stronger since the beginning of the year.

Crédit Agricole says investors have concentrated too heavily on Sterling’s attractive yield and have paid insufficient attention to the fiscal risks embedded in elevated UK government bond yields.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.170572 (-0.11%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.333972 (+0.11%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.139589 (+0.22%)

Not All Eyes Should Be on the Bank of England

“For some time now, FX investors have focused almost exclusively on one feature of the GBP – its superior carry appeal which, in turn, reflected the fact that gilt yields remain the highest in G10,” says Valentin Marinov, Head of G10 FX Research and Strategy at Crédit Agricole.

“This has been a very imbalanced view.”

The bank argues that high gilt yields do not simply reflect expectations for Bank of England policy.

They also contain compensation for UK sovereign credit risk, which Crédit Agricole expects to become increasingly important during the opening months of Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government.

The concern is that proposed cost-of-living measures and other policy commitments could consume the government’s already limited fiscal headroom.

Crédit Agricole identifies removing VAT from energy bills, raising the personal income-tax allowance and increasing military expenditure as examples of policies that could add to the pressure.

The potential use of new revenue-raising measures, including a higher top rate of income tax or a land tax, could create further uncertainty if they weaken business confidence and damage the economic outlook.

“Attempts by the Burnham government to use ‘fiscal flexibility’ to push for off-balance investment projects with limited to no positive growth impact in the near term could rankle gilt vigilantes,” the bank says.

“To the extent that UK sovereign credit risks rise as a result, the GBP should relinquish its recent gains.”

Markets Price Too Much BoE Tightening

The Bank of England meeting will provide the next major test for the Pound.

Crédit Agricole and the market both expect policymakers to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, but the bank sees a significant risk that the accompanying guidance disappoints investors expecting further tightening.

UK rate markets were pricing around 65 basis points of BoE increases when the report was produced.

Crédit Agricole describes that outlook as “very hawkish”, particularly given the challenging UK growth backdrop.

“We further think that the MPC could remain non-committal with respect to future hikes, notwithstanding the latest increase in global energy prices,” says Marinov.

“This could deal a blow to the current market rate expectations and thus to the GBP’s relative rate appeal.”

The bank’s own interest-rate forecasts show Bank Rate remaining at 3.75% through the middle of 2027, before falling to 3.50% in September and 3.25% by the end of next year.

That is materially less hawkish than current market pricing and helps explain the bank’s cautious near-term Sterling view.

A reduction in expected BoE tightening would be particularly important because the Pound’s recent resilience has depended heavily on the UK’s yield advantage.

Should markets conclude that the central bank is unwilling to deliver the increases currently priced, Sterling would lose an important pillar of support at the same time that investors are scrutinising the government’s fiscal plans.

GBP/USD exchange rate - 1 year chart
Image: GBP/USD exchange rate – 1 year chart

Crédit Agricole Targets GBP/USD at 1.31

Crédit Agricole forecasts GBP/USD at 1.32 in September before a further decline to 1.31 in December.

The pair is expected to recover gradually thereafter, reaching 1.32 in March 2027, 1.34 in June, 1.37 in September and 1.39 by the end of next year.

The forecast therefore separates a bearish near-term phase from a more constructive longer-term outlook.

From the latest rate near 1.3334, the September forecast implies a decline of roughly 1%, while the December target would represent a fall of approximately 1.8%.

The immediate downside reference is July’s low at 1.3221.

A move through that level would bring Crédit Agricole’s 1.32 September target into view and strengthen the case for a deeper decline towards 1.31.

On the upside, the recent closes show resistance emerging around 1.3380-1.3430, while the mid-July highs around 1.3540-1.3560 represent the more substantial barrier.

GBP/USD would need to recover through that upper zone to show that the correction from July’s peak has run its course.

The Dollar view is not entirely straightforward.

Crédit Agricole believes current expectations for two additional Federal Reserve rate increases are too hawkish and says softer guidance or data could offer the Dollar limited support in the near term.

The bank also argues that changes in the way foreign investors finance the US current-account deficit may be weakening the Dollar’s traditional safe-haven response during periods of market stress.

Even so, it retains an above-consensus view on the Dollar and describes its GBP/USD outlook as cautious.

The US economy is expected to outperform many European and Asian economies, while persistent inflation and the continued strength of the artificial-intelligence investment cycle should maintain demand for US assets.

GBP/EUR exchange rate - 1 year chart
Image: GBP/EUR exchange rate – 1 year chart

Euro Gains May Be More Limited

Crédit Agricole forecasts EUR/GBP at 0.86 in September, December and March 2027.

Converted into GBP/EUR terms, that implies a rate near 1.1630.

The bank then expects EUR/GBP to ease to 0.85 by June 2027 and 0.84 by the end of next year, equivalent to GBP/EUR recovering towards approximately 1.1765 and 1.1905 respectively.

Although the near-term forecast favours the Euro, Crédit Agricole believes some of the negative UK outlook is already reflected in Sterling’s valuation against the single currency.

“We believe, however, that some negatives are already priced into the GBP especially versus the EUR, given that the Eurozone would have to deal with the consequences from the negative oil supply shock in the wake of the Iran war as well.”

The bank also notes that Sterling already looks oversold and that global investors appear underinvested in UK assets.

Those factors may limit the extent of losses against the Euro even as political and fiscal risks remain elevated.

The current Pound-to-Euro rate near 1.1702 is already much closer to Crédit Agricole’s implied 1.1630 target than July’s high at 1.1827.

A break below 1.1690 would expose the 1.1600-1.1630 area, while a recovery above 1.1760 would be needed to improve the near-term picture.

Positioning Offers Some Protection

Crédit Agricole’s positioning data provide one counterweight to its bearish forecast.

The Pound attracted buying interest during the latest reporting week, led primarily by futures-market flows.

Banks, hedge funds and real-money investors were buyers, while corporate accounts sold Sterling.

Despite those inflows, the bank’s broader positioning measure still shows the Pound among the more lightly held G10 currencies and below its medium-term average.

This is consistent with the view that Sterling is already oversold and global investors remain underexposed to UK assets.

Light positioning could limit the speed of further declines or produce a sharper rebound should the BoE sound unexpectedly hawkish or the government provide credible fiscal reassurance.

It does not, however, remove the underlying risk identified by Crédit Agricole: that high gilt yields are increasingly a warning about sovereign risk rather than an uncomplicated source of support for the currency.

Pound Sterling Forecast: Short and Medium Term

Crédit Agricole maintains a bearish view on Sterling against both the Dollar and the Euro from current levels.

Its GBP/USD forecasts point to 1.32 in September and 1.31 in December, while EUR/GBP at 0.86 implies GBP/EUR near 1.1630.

The bank expects the BoE to leave rates unchanged and remain non-committal about further increases, potentially challenging the approximately 65 basis points of tightening priced by investors.

At the same time, Prime Minister Burnham’s fiscal programme could force markets to reassess whether the UK’s high bond yields represent attractive carry or growing sovereign risk.

Some bad news is already reflected in the Pound, particularly against the Euro, and light investor positioning should provide a degree of protection.

Nevertheless, the near-term balance of risk remains negative while GBP/USD trades below 1.3430 and GBP/EUR remains unable to regain the 1.1760 area.

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26 07, 2026

Euro-Dollar: Lloyds Forecasts EUR/USD Fall Towards 1.12

By |2026-07-26T17:51:39+03:00July 26, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Lloyds expects EUR/USD to retreat towards 1.1214 this summer as persistent US inflation risks restore the Dollar’s interest-rate advantage.

At Friday’s market close, the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was quoted at $1.1371, down 0.05% on the day and from $1.1438 the previous Friday.

EUR/USD fell in four of the five sessions and finished just above July’s low at 1.1362, leaving the Euro on the defensive heading into the new week.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137117 (-0.05%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.332498 (+0.09%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.85169 (0.00%)

Lloyds Bank says the latest rise in energy and wider commodity prices has revived inflation concerns, but the policy consequences are likely to be more challenging for the United States than the Eurozone.

“The Fed faces a more challenging mix than slow Europe, the USD ought to benefit from that,” says Nicholas Kennedy, FX strategist at Lloyds Bank.

The US economy has absorbed the latest energy shock with relatively little damage to domestic demand.

Lloyds points to resilient household consumption, a steadier labour market, rising equity-market wealth and the continuing AI investment boom. Tariffs, tight inventories and wider supply constraints are adding to the underlying price pressure.

Europe faces a less supportive combination.

The European Central Bank may still raise interest rates further, but higher input costs and tighter monetary policy are also likely to weigh more heavily on the Eurozone’s already-fragile demand and confidence.

Markets May Still Be Underpricing the Fed

“One soft month for inflation data does not alter those underlying influences,” Kennedy says.

At the time of Lloyds’ 23 July report, markets had almost two Federal Reserve rate increases priced by the end of 2026.

“While the market now has almost two Fed hikes priced in by year-end, there is not much after that,” the bank says, noting that only another 13 basis points of tightening was priced through to the middle of 2027.

Lloyds believes that may prove too cautious if strong demand continues to collide with limited supply, accommodative financial conditions and rising business costs.

“If ECB assumptions are too hawkish, we’d still see the Fed curve as too low,” Kennedy adds.

The implication for EUR/USD is that US-Eurozone rate differentials could move back in the Dollar’s favour even if the ECB retains a hawkish policy stance.

With Eurozone growth fragile and investors reluctant to revive the broader anti-Dollar trade, Lloyds says the Dollar’s carry advantage is beginning to reassert itself.

“A further drift down towards EUR/USD 1.1214, if not a bit below… remains our expectation over the summer,” the bank concludes.

EUR/USD 15-minute technical chart at Friday’s market close
Image: EUR/USD 15-minute technical chart at Friday’s market close

EUR/USD Technical Outlook Remains Soft

The short-term chart also points to a continued downside bias.

EUR/USD ended Friday below the session VWAP at approximately 1.1381 and the 200-period moving average near 1.1392.

The 14-period RSI stood at 44.3, below the neutral 50 level but not yet signalling oversold conditions.

Initial support is located at July’s 1.1362 low.

A sustained break below that area would strengthen the case for another move lower and keep Lloyds’ 1.1214 target in view. That level is approximately 1.4% below Friday’s close.

Lloyds identifies 1.1065 as the next technical support should EUR/USD fall below the 1.12 region.

On the upside, the pair would need to recover the 1.1381–1.1392 area to ease immediate selling pressure.

Until then, the approaching Federal Reserve meeting and any further evidence of persistent US inflation will remain important tests of the bank’s bearish summer forecast.

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26 07, 2026

USD/JPY Forecast: Glut Of Japanese GDP Data May Leave Yen In Strong Position Tomorrow

By |2026-07-26T09:50:10+03:00July 26, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The USD to JPY exchange rate crashed to a five-week low after Federal Reserve rate hike bets were significantly reduced following jobs data. Yellen’s speech is now in greater focus this week, will the US dollar see a recovery?

Although the Japanese Coincident and Leading Indexes showed some improvement on the month in April this failed to encourage particular confidence in the Yen (JPY).

Consequently, in spite of the eliminated odds of a June interest rate hike from the Fed, the US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate trended higher.

Having seen a steady recovery earlier in the day, the US dollar to yen exchange rate fell after FED Yellen’s dovish speech late afternoon.

Japanese officials were fast to talk down the strength of the Yen exchange rates following Friday’s sharp decrease in value of the US Dollar (USD).

As markets await direction from Fed Chair Janet Yellen the US Dollar strengthened against many of the majors, with some of the currency’s recent slump being considered oversold.

Going into the weekend, the US dollar to yen exchange rate ended the week over 400 pips lower following particularly dismal US labour market data.

Meanwhile, safe-haven demand caused the JPY exchange rates to advance, especially after domestic services output surprised to the upside.

Forex traders will pay close attention to Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech amid concerns of long-term delays to a cash rate increase.

Dollar to Yen exchange rate chart

Latest Dollar/Yen Exchange Rates

Other Foreign Exchange News

How will the Federal Reserve respond to weak labour market data?

As explained above, the disappointing results from Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls, which saw just 38,000 newly employed, caused the US Dollar to dive significantly.

Rate hawks were forced to reduce bets regarding the timing of a cash rate increase, with the better-than-expected drop in unemployment little comfort given the reduced participation rate.

The primary focus for traders this week will be a speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Monday. Yellen will likely give a good indication as to how the latest labour market figures will impact on Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) outlook.

yen to dollar exchange rate chart

Volatility Forecast for Japanese Yen (JPY) Exchange Rates on Market Sentiment

With increased uncertainty as to the effectiveness of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) negative interest rates, there is a high chance that the Japanese Yen will decline over the coming week.

With that said, US dollar exchange rate weakness is supportive of Yen gains as foreign currency traders seek safe-haven assets amid damp sentiment.

Japanese ecostats are unlikely to be hugely impactful this week, with US Dollar positioning and market sentiment far more likely to dictate movement.

The USD has made considerable gains against the JPY of late, owing to Japanese shortcomings and occasional Fed optimism.

In the former case, the value of Japan’s currency has taken a hit due to a multitude of factors, one of which is the fact that plans to equalise pay in the workplace could leave employers reeling.

The US Dollar has been making generally positive movement against peers, thanks to the occasional hint that a June interest rate hike may still be on the cards.

US dollar to Yen Exchange Rate Forecast

The USD/JPY exchange rate could dip tomorrow morning, due to a large number of impactful Japanese ecostats coming out.

These Japanese announcements will primarily consist of the finalised Q1 GDP, which is generally expected to rise on the quarter and the year.

Also due will be the bank lending stats including trusts, which previously printed at 2.2%.



Exchange Rates UK Research

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

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26 07, 2026

Coffee prices today, July 26: Keeping the increase after the recovery session

By |2026-07-26T09:45:11+03:00July 26, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Domestic coffee prices today

Today’s coffee price in the domestic market remained around 96,000 VND/kg after the previous rebound session.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices are recorded at 95,800 VND/kg. Gia Lai also has a purchase price of 95,800 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices are at 95,300 VND/kg, the lowest among the surveyed areas.

The old Dak Nong area, now belonging to Lam Dong province, continues to have the highest price, reaching 96,000 VND/kg.

Compared to the previous decrease, the price has recovered by about 1,100-1,300 VND/kg in many regions; however, if calculated for the past week, the price level is still about 2,000 VND/kg lower.

The current price level is still higher than the area at the beginning of July, but has receded quite far from the area close to 99,000 VND/kg recorded in previous sessions.

World coffee prices

In the world market, coffee prices had a slight recovery in the most recent session.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract increased by 49 USD/ton, equivalent to 1.32%, to 3,757 USD/ton. The November 2026 futures contract increased by 39 USD/ton, reaching 3,738 USD/ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica futures in September 2026 increased by 4.4 US cents/lb, equivalent to 1.42%, to 313.80 US cents/lb. December 2026 futures increased by 1.6 US cents/lb, to 298.05 US cents/lb.

However, in general, last week, world coffee prices still decreased compared to the beginning of the week. This development shows that the latest recovery is not enough to ease the adjustment pressure after the previous hot increase period.

Coffee price assessment

Domestic coffee prices remained around 96,000 VND/kg after the recovery session, while world prices also slightly increased again. However, the market still needs more confirmation sessions to assess whether the recovery trend is sustainable or not.

From an supply-demand perspective, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that the average ICO aggregate price index in June 2026 reached 248.90 US cents/lb, down 2.8% compared to the previous month. This development shows that the international market is still affected by expectations of improved supply.

With Robusta, the Coffee Annual report of the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) in Vietnam forecasts that Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2026-2027 crop year will reach 32.5 million bags converted to green beans. This is a factor that can curb the upward momentum in the medium term.

Regarding the weather, the Central Highlands is in the rainy season. The National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that on July 26, the Central Highlands area will have scattered showers and thunderstorms, locally heavy rain, concentrated in the late afternoon and night. This factor needs to be monitored in the stages of garden care, pest and disease prevention and goods preservation.





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26 07, 2026

The ECB Is Turning More Hawkish – But EUR/USD Is Going Nowhere

By |2026-07-26T01:47:53+03:00July 26, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The Euro remains supported by expectations of further ECB tightening, but EUR/USD is still struggling to escape the lower end of its July range.

EUR/USD traded close to 1.1371 at the end of the latest session, leaving the pair near July’s low after a subdued week for the single currency.

The Euro has fallen in six of the past eight completed sessions and is down around 0.4% for July, having retreated from a monthly high near 1.1481 to within one cent of June’s 1.1325 low.

Both ING and Nordea expect the European Central Bank to maintain a hawkish bias, with further interest-rate increases still likely.

However, neither the rate outlook nor the latest ECB meeting has generated enough momentum to push EUR/USD out of its narrow trading range.

ING expects the pair to remain supported by higher Eurozone rates, but retains a near-term downside bias towards 1.1380.

Nordea goes further, forecasting three additional 25-basis-point rate increases that would lift the ECB deposit rate from 2.25% to 3.00% by March 2027.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137117 (-0.05%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.332498 (+0.09%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.85169 (0.00%)

ING Sees September Hike Remaining in Play

ING had expected the ECB to leave rates unchanged while preserving the hawkish market pricing already embedded in Eurozone interest rates.

Its baseline was for a hawkish hold, with policymakers attempting to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored as European gas and global energy prices remain elevated.

“The aim today could be – once again – to preserve market pricing to limit the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring,” says ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole.

ING argued that achieving this might require a clear indication that a September rate increase remained possible, either through the press conference or subsequent guidance.

The bank noted that the market had already priced approximately 45 basis points of tightening by the end of 2026, setting a relatively high hurdle for the ECB to deliver an additional Euro-positive surprise.

“The hawkish bar set by the market via pricing isn’t low,” says Pesole.

ING nevertheless expected a firm ECB stance to limit the downside for short-dated Eurozone rates and, by extension, the Euro.

The difficulty is that supportive rate differentials have not translated into a decisive EUR/USD advance.

“A central bank meeting would normally be a prime catalyst for EUR/USD to break out of its tight trading range, but we do not expect that to happen,” ING says.

The bank retained a near-term downside bias, arguing that currency markets remained too relaxed about the potential consequences of further escalation in the Gulf.

“Unless the newsflow becomes more constructive, we look for EUR/USD to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days.”

That target has already been reached, with the pair ending the latest session near 1.1371.

Nordea Forecasts Three More ECB Rate Increases

Nordea believes the ECB remains in a genuine tightening cycle rather than delivering one or two isolated increases.

The bank forecasts 25-basis-point hikes in September, December and March 2027, which would raise the deposit rate to 3.00%.

“The ECB did not touch rates today, but the message was in line with more rate hikes to come,” Nordea says.

“Our updated forecast still sees three more rate increases, but at a quarterly pace as opposed to a faster speed before.”

Nordea says the ECB’s latest communication left the door “wide open” to a September increase.

It highlights the central bank’s assessment that energy prices remained close to the assumptions used in its June forecast, which showed core inflation staying above 2% throughout the projection period even with two further rate increases already included.

The bank’s conviction does not depend on another major escalation in the Middle East or a renewed surge in oil.

Instead, Nordea expects broader price pressures and a relatively resilient Eurozone economy to keep the ECB tightening for longer.

“We think that we are amidst a hiking cycle rather than one or two isolated rate moves, and continue to expect the ECB to raise rates three more times.”

The bank has slowed the expected pace of tightening because oil prices have fallen from their earlier highs and the growth outlook has become less certain.

A rapid improvement in the geopolitical backdrop could reduce the need for further action, while a prolonged conflict and renewed energy-price increase could produce faster or additional rate increases.

Nordea chart showing 25-basis-point ECB hikes in September, December and March 2027, taking the deposit rate to 3.00%
Image: Nordea chart showing 25-basis-point ECB hikes in September, December and March 2027, taking the deposit rate to 3.00% – Courtesy of Nordea.

Energy Inflation May Take Time to Spread

Nordea argues that markets and policymakers may still be underestimating the delayed second-round effects of higher energy costs.

Its research notes that during the previous inflation cycle it took several months for rising energy prices to feed into food, goods and services inflation.

It also took considerably longer for forward inflation expectations to peak than for spot inflation itself.

“We still see risks biased towards more second-round impact on inflation than what markets and the ECB expect,” Nordea says.

This possibility supports the case for further tightening even if the immediate increase in oil and gas prices begins to reverse.

The bank also points to inflation expectations that remain above the ECB’s target across several measures.

Its report shows five-year market inflation expectations around 2.26%, while household and large-company measures remain closer to 2.9%.

Nordea expects Eurozone growth of approximately 1% in 2026, although it acknowledges that the risks are tilted to the downside.

The bank nevertheless says the economy has remained more resilient than weak purchasing managers’ surveys would suggest.

Manufacturing output and retail sales increased in the available April and May data, while second-quarter growth may have been around 0.3%.

Nordea expects household consumption to remain the primary source of positive growth, supplemented by investment in technology and defence.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook

Despite the increasingly hawkish ECB outlook, the EUR/USD chart shows little evidence of sustained buying momentum.

The pair is trading close to 1.1371, below its 20-period moving average near 1.1372 and beneath session VWAP around 1.1381.

It also remains below the 200-period moving average near 1.1392, leaving the immediate intraday structure tilted to the downside.

EUR/USD attempted to recover towards 1.1390 during the latest session but failed to sustain the move.

The retreat confirms a band of resistance between approximately 1.1380 and 1.1392, with the 1.1400 level providing the next major barrier.

RSI stands around 44, having recovered from levels close to 30.

This indicates that selling pressure has eased and the pair is no longer oversold, but momentum remains below the neutral 50 threshold.

The technical picture is therefore consistent with consolidation near the lows rather than the start of a convincing Euro recovery.

Initial support is located around 1.1368, followed by July’s low near 1.1362.

A sustained break below that area would expose the June low around 1.1325.

On the upside, EUR/USD must first recover above 1.1375 and 1.1381.

A move through the 1.1390-1.1400 region would provide the first meaningful evidence that the Euro is developing greater breakout power.

EUR/USD 15-minute chart showing support at 1.1362, resistance at 1.1380 and the 1.1390-1.1400 breakout zone
Image: EUR/USD 15-minute chart showing support at 1.1362, resistance at 1.1380 and the 1.1390-1.1400 breakout zone

Why ECB Hikes Have Not Lifted the Euro

The lack of a stronger EUR/USD response reflects the fact that much of the hawkish ECB outlook is already priced into the market.

Nordea notes that almost a full rate increase is priced by September, another is largely priced by December and part of a further hike is reflected in March 2027 contracts.

This leaves limited room for interest-rate expectations to move further in the Euro’s favour without a fresh inflation shock or more forceful ECB guidance.

The US Dollar also retains support from higher US rates, geopolitical uncertainty and the risk that elevated energy prices eventually damage global risk appetite.

ING says the current low-volatility environment may be underestimating how quickly Dollar demand could return if financial markets lose their tolerance for higher oil and gas prices.

The Euro is therefore receiving support from ECB tightening expectations, but not enough to overcome simultaneous demand for the Dollar.

Euro Forecast 2026: Latest Bank Projections

ING and Nordea both see a hawkish ECB, but the implications for EUR/USD remain restrained.

Nordea expects three further rate increases and a 3.00% deposit rate by March 2027, while ING believes policymakers will keep a September hike in play and defend current market pricing.

These forecasts should limit the risk of an immediate collapse in the Euro.

However, the rate outlook is already heavily reflected in market prices, while geopolitical and energy risks continue to favour the Dollar.

EUR/USD therefore remains vulnerable while below 1.1390-1.1400.

A break beneath 1.1362 would expose the June low near 1.1325, while only a sustained recovery above 1.1400 would suggest that hawkish ECB expectations are finally generating a meaningful upside breakout.

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26 07, 2026

WTI Oil Price Forecast: Global Transport Disruptions Replace Supply As Key Risk

By |2026-07-26T01:43:49+03:00July 26, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Economists at MUFG believe oil prices remain vulnerable to fresh gains despite Friday’s sharp pullback, warning that disruption to global shipping routes is becoming a bigger driver of the market than the direct loss of crude supply.

The WTI crude price in US Dollars (OIL/USD) traded at $85.88 on Friday after retreating from Thursday’s spike to $92.09, but prices remain almost 23% higher in July following escalating tensions involving Iran, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest surge in crude prices has been fuelled not only by continued US strikes on Iran but also by growing threats to shipping routes that carry energy supplies around the world.

MUFG says geopolitical risks have broadened well beyond the Middle East.

“Oil climbs as geopolitical risks extend beyond the Middle East.”

The bank notes that Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Russia’s Black Sea export infrastructure have all combined to increase uncertainty surrounding global energy transportation.

Although the Strait of Hormuz remains open, MUFG says commercial shipping has already been affected.

“Commercial shipping through the waterway has declined sharply.”

According to the bank, several tanker operators have altered routes to avoid the Red Sea, increasing transport costs and reducing the efficiency of global energy flows.

Rather than focusing solely on crude production, MUFG believes investors should pay closer attention to transport infrastructure.

“The widening geographic scope of supply disruptions suggests oil prices are increasingly being driven by global transportation risks.”

Oil price chart in US Dollars - 1 month performance
Image: Oil price chart in US Dollars – 1 month performance

The chart above highlights the sharp jump in oil prices following renewed attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure, before Friday’s partial correction.

The bank argues that attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast reinforce the risk that supply disruptions are spreading beyond the Gulf region.

Combined with falling tanker traffic through Hormuz, that leaves oil markets increasingly sensitive to any further escalation.

While Friday’s retreat suggests some profit-taking after this week’s rally, MUFG believes downside risks remain limited as long as transport disruptions persist.

“Oil prices are increasingly being driven by global transportation risks, leaving the market vulnerable to further upside if geopolitical tensions persist.”

The bank believes a sustained disruption to shipping through either the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea would continue to tighten physical markets, even if headline crude production remains relatively stable.

Price of oil in USD - a 1 year chart
Image: Price of oil in USD – a 1 year chart

The one-year chart shows the extraordinary volatility in oil prices during 2026, with July’s rally reversing much of June’s sharp decline as geopolitical risks returned to dominate trading.

Exchange Rates UK Research

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.



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25 07, 2026

Scotiabank Pound To Dollar Forecast: GBP Holds Near 1.3300 Despite Strong UK Data

By |2026-07-25T21:47:13+03:00July 25, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate held near 1.3325 on Friday, having retreated more than two cents from July’s high around 1.3558.

GBP/USD is still around 0.6% higher this month, but Sterling has struggled to respond to a stronger run of UK economic data.

Over the past year, the pair has traded between approximately 1.3010 and 1.3858.

Scotiabank noted that June retail sales were far stronger than expected, while the preliminary July business surveys also surprised positively.

The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8, signalling a solid expansion, while the services index recovered from contraction territory to 51.8.

Despite the upbeat figures, the bank said “market participants are clearly not responding to fundamentals”, with political uncertainty and concerns over the UK’s fiscal position continuing to weigh on the Pound.

Attention now turns to next Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but Scotiabank anticipates a hawkish hold alongside updated economic forecasts.

Markets currently price around 16 basis points of tightening by September and 32 basis points by November.

Pound Sterling could gain if policymakers strengthen the case for a rate rise at the following meeting.

The options market is sending a more cautious signal, however, with demand increasing for protection against renewed GBP weakness.

Scotiabank linked the shift to geopolitical risks and domestic political concerns, both of which have pushed gilt yields higher.

The bank’s technical outlook remains neutral.

GBP/USD has slipped below the support previously expected near 1.3350, leaving 1.3300 as the immediate level to watch.

Stronger support is located at 1.3150, with resistance around 1.3550.

Exchange Rates UK Research

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

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25 07, 2026

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Retains Bearish Bias as Markets Brace for Fed Decision

By |2026-07-25T21:43:06+03:00July 25, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


BitcoinWorld

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Retains Bearish Bias as Markets Brace for Fed Decision

Gold prices are holding a bearish bias as of mid-March 2025, with the XAU/USD pair trading under pressure ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision. The precious metal remains constrained by a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising bond yields, which continue to diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Technical Outlook Remains Weak for XAU/USD

From a technical perspective, gold has failed to reclaim key resistance levels near $2,150 per ounce, with sellers maintaining control below the 50-day moving average. The daily chart shows a series of lower highs since late February, suggesting that momentum has shifted in favor of bears. Immediate support lies at the $2,080 region, a break of which could open the door toward the $2,020 area.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe has dipped below 45, indicating bearish momentum without being oversold. This leaves room for further downside before the asset enters technically oversold territory. Traders are watching for a decisive close below $2,080 to confirm the next leg lower.

Macro Pressures Intensify Ahead of Fed Decision

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its March 2025 meeting, but the focus will be on the accompanying dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary. Persistent inflation data in recent months has reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, a scenario that typically weighs on gold prices.

Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which offers no yield. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to a three-month high, further pressuring XAU/USD. Market pricing currently reflects only a 30% probability of a rate cut by June 2025, down from over 60% at the start of the year.

Why This Matters for Gold Investors

For physical gold holders and ETF investors, the current environment suggests a cautious approach. The bearish bias does not guarantee a sustained selloff, but it does indicate that the path of least resistance is lower in the near term. Safe-haven demand remains a supportive factor amid geopolitical uncertainties, but it has been insufficient to overcome macro headwinds.

Investors should monitor the Fed’s language on inflation and the economic outlook closely. A hawkish surprise could accelerate gold’s decline, while any dovish signals may trigger a short-term relief rally. The $2,080 support level will be the key line in the sand for traders this week.

Conclusion

Gold retains a bearish bias as of mid-March 2025, with technical indicators and macro factors aligning against the precious metal. The upcoming Federal Reserve decision represents the most significant near-term catalyst. A break below $2,080 would likely confirm further downside, while a hawkish Fed outcome could reinforce the current trend. Investors should remain focused on the central bank’s forward guidance for clearer direction.

FAQs

Q1: Why is gold price bearish heading into the Fed week?
Gold is under pressure due to a stronger U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. These factors collectively reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

Q2: What is the key support level for XAU/USD right now?
The immediate support level is near $2,080 per ounce. A decisive break below this level could open the door toward the $2,020 region.

Q3: How could the Fed decision affect gold prices?
A hawkish Fed stance, signaling delayed rate cuts, would likely pressure gold further. Conversely, any dovish signals could trigger a short-term rally. The dot plot and Powell’s commentary will be critical.

This post Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Retains Bearish Bias as Markets Brace for Fed Decision first appeared on BitcoinWorld.



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