EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1390 ​​with a target of 1.1550 and a stop-loss at 1.1320

• Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1540 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop-loss at 1.1600

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate faced strong selling pressure during last week’s trading. This came after the US Federal Reserve reinforced market expectations that tight monetary policy will persist for longer than anticipated, pushing the currency pair to its lowest level in nearly 11 weeks near the 1.1418 level during Tuesday’s trading session.

Although the Euro managed to trim some of its losses by the end of the week, the pair’s direction in the coming period will remain captive to the balance between US inflation concerns and the monetary policy paths of both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB).

Technically, the overall trend for the EUR/USD pair remains tilted toward the negative (bearish) side as long as trading stabilizes below the main resistance zone of 1.1550 – 1.1600. Breaking the 1.1450 level reinforces the chances of targeting the 1.1400 and then 1.1300 zones in the coming weeks. Its recent losses are pushing technical indicators closer to oversold lines, as is the case with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the MACD indicator.

Conversely, if buyers manage to regain control and break through the nearby resistance levels, this could pave the way for an upward rebound towards 1.1700 and then 1.1800 in the medium term.

In general, the performance of the EUR/USD pair during the current trading week will remain primarily linked to US inflation data and statements from Federal Reserve officials, along with any new indications regarding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy direction. These factors could determine the future direction of one of the most traded currency pairs in global markets.

Federal Reserve Policies and Dollar Strength

Last week, the Federal Reserve kept US interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, a decision that aligned with market expectations. However, the surprise came in the updated economic projections, where half of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members indicated a potential need for further interest rate hikes by the end of 2026.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments also supported the dollar, as he affirmed the US central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target. This reinforced investors’ bets on continued monetary tightening in the coming months.

Concurrently, the likelihood of another US interest rate hike increased, which contributed to increased demand for the dollar and pushed the EUR/USD pair further down.

Will the Euro’s Losses Continue?

Danske Bank believes that the downward pressure on the EUR/USD is not over yet, maintaining its forecast for the pair to drop to the 1.12 support level over the next twelve months—a level below the market consensus average. The bank believes that tightening global financial conditions will negatively impact the pace of economic growth, which has already been reflected in the performance of equity markets and cyclically linked currencies, playing in favor of the US Dollar as a more attractive safe haven.

The bank also maintains its expectation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates two more times next year, with an increasing likelihood of an earlier tightening cycle if US economic data continues to outperform expectations.

On the other hand, ING Bank adopts a more balanced view toward the pair’s movement. While it acknowledges that the Dollar is currently benefiting from tight monetary policy expectations, it questions the Federal Reserve’s ability to execute further interest rate increases. The bank believes that inflationary pressures could ease significantly next year, and the strength of the US labor market still requires further confirmation. Therefore, it expects the EUR/USD pair to remain under pressure over the next two months near the 1.14 – 1.15 levels before beginning to recover gradually.

According to the bank’s estimates, the pair could rise to 1.18 by the end of the year if US economic data comes in weaker than expected and fails to justify further monetary tightening.

Trading Advice:

It is preferable for traders to monitor stronger gains that could serve as selling targets. Meawhile, maintaining strict risk management in light of the ongoing market uncertainty.

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– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Hawkish Fed Expectations Keep US Dollar Supported

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged lower on Tuesday as investors reacted to the latest UK purchasing managers’ index data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading close to $1.3224, down roughly 0.2% compared with Tuesday’s opening levels.

The Pound (GBP) came under selling pressure on Tuesday after fresh survey data painted a weaker-than-expected picture of the UK economy.

Markets had anticipated that June’s preliminary PMI figures would show a return to growth in the UK’s dominant services sector. Instead, the data revealed that activity contracted at a faster pace than in the previous month, dampening confidence in the economic outlook.

The disappointing release prompted investors to further scale back expectations for future Bank of England (BoE) policy tightening. Some analysts now believe the central bank could keep interest rates unchanged for the rest of 2026.

The US Dollar (USD) remained firmly bid throughout Tuesday’s session as markets continued to digest the implications of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.

Demand for the ‘Greenback’ was underpinned by expectations that US interest rates may stay elevated for an extended period, with investors increasingly embracing a higher-for-longer outlook.

Although the Fed left borrowing costs unchanged at its most recent meeting, officials struck a relatively hawkish tone, indicating that further policy tightening cannot be ruled out should inflationary pressures prove stubborn.

Additional support for USD came from a cautious market mood, as weakness across global technology stocks encouraged investors to seek the safety of traditional haven assets.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Political Developments Could Drive Sterling

With little in the way of major economic releases scheduled over the next couple of days, movements in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate may be driven largely by developments on the UK political front.

As Andy Burnham looks all but guaranteed to succeed Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, investors are increasingly focused on who may be selected for key cabinet positions. In particular, any indications regarding the next Chancellor could have implications for market sentiment toward the UK.

Sterling traders may also pay close attention to comments from BoE policymaker Sarah Breeden on Wednesday. Given her reputation as one of the more dovish members of the Monetary Policy Committee, any suggestion that rates are likely to remain on hold could weigh on the Pound.

For the US Dollar, broader market sentiment may remain the primary driver in the near term, with investors awaiting a series of high-profile US economic releases due later in the week.

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Platinum price remains affected by recurring negative pressures, represented by its overall stability below the main resistance level currently extending toward $1,940.00. In addition, the $1,865.00 level is forming another strong barrier, forcing the price to renew its bearish attempts, with the price currently positioned near the $1,645.00 level.

The availability of negative momentum will increase the chances of the price attacking the support level at $1,605.00 soon. A break below this level would strengthen the chances of resuming the bearish move, targeting $1,565.00 and then $1,490.00 respectively.

The expected trading range for today is between $1,565.00 and $1,700.00

Trend forecast: Bearish