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8 04, 2026

The GBPAUD begins to decline– Forecast today – 8-4-2026

By |2026-04-08T12:57:01+02:00April 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


The EURJPY pair renewed the positive attempts since yesterday, due to the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators by its rally above the initial resistance at 184.80, to test the barrier at 185.45 to bounce directly to settle near 184.90.

 

The price might be forced to provide mixed trading by its stability below 184.45, and there is a chance for forming bearish waves to target 184.20 and 183.70 level, while its success to surpass the barrier at 185.45 will open the way for forming strong bullish waves, to expect reaching 186.00 initially, reaching 186.65.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 184.40 and 185.45

 

Trend forecast: Fluctuated

 





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8 04, 2026

GBP/USD Forecast: Bulls seize control on US-Iran ceasefire news

By |2026-04-08T12:52:04+02:00April 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The GBP/USD pair prolongs its uptrend for the third consecutive day and rallies to over a two-week top on Wednesday, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum further beyond the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The US Dollar (USD) slumps to a nearly one-month low during the first half of the European session amid hopes for an end to the Middle East war and turns out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the currency pair.

US President Donald Trump announced in a post on Truth Social that he will suspend planned military strikes against Iran for two weeks. Iran also signaled a conditional willingness to de-escalate tensions, provided attacks against the country are halted. The positive development boosted investors’ sentiment, sending the safe-haven Greenback tumbling lower and assisting the GBP/USD pair in building on this week’s rise from the 1.3175 region.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote on X that safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with the country’s Armed Forces and due consideration of technical limitations. Crude Oil prices crashed over 15% intraday amid optimism over the resumption of shipping traffic from the strategic waterway, easing inflation fears, and tempering expectations for more hawkish global central banks.

In fact, market bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) collapsed amid the unwinding of the inflation premium. The resultant steep decline in US Treasury bond yields further undermines the USD. Moreover, traders have sharply reduced Bank of England (BoE) rate hike bets and are now pricing in roughly 30-40 basis points (bps) of increases by the year-end. This still marks a significant divergence in comparison to the Fed and favors the GBP/USD bulls.

Market participants now look to the release of FOMC Minutes, due later during the US session. Apart from this, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday and Friday, respectively, will be looked upon for more cues about the Fed’s policy outlook. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD daily chart

Technical Analysis:

The near-term bias turns mildly bullish as the GBP/USD pair holds just above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March downfall. Spot prices now test the downward-sloping 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3415 from above, suggesting emerging dip-buying interest around this long-term reference. Momentum improves, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line crossing above its signal and edging back toward the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 signals modest bullish momentum rather than overbought conditions.

A further move could face immediate resistance at the 50% retracement at 1.3505. A daily close above the said barrier would strengthen the bullish tone and open the way toward the 61.8% Fibo. retracement level at 1.3588. On the downside, initial support sits at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement level at 1.3422, aligned with the 200-day SMA near 1.3415, and a break below there would expose the 23.6% Fibo. retracement level at 1.3319 as the next downside level. As long as the GBP/USD pair holds above the 1.3415–1.3422 support band, the path of least resistance favors further recovery attempts toward the mid-1.3500s area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3427.

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8 04, 2026

Platinum price begins to rise– Forecast today – 8-4-2026

By |2026-04-08T08:55:58+02:00April 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Platinum price succeeded to surpass the moving average 55 by forming new bullish wave, achieving $2045.00 level this morning, which requires providing a new positive close above $1950.00 level, to confirm its readiness to form new bullish waves by reaching $2070.00, and surpassing this barrier might extend the trading towards $2130.00 reaching the next resistance at $2205.00 level.

 

While the return of fluctuation below $1950.00 will force it to activate the bearish corrective track again, forcing it to suffer some losses by reaching $1865.00 and $1800.00 before any new attempt to achieve any of the suggested positive targets.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $1950.00 and $2130.00

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

 





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8 04, 2026

Yen Reels on Geopolitical Turmoil. Forecast as of 07.04.2026

By |2026-04-08T08:51:00+02:00April 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The conflict in the Middle East is pushing Japan’s economy toward stagflation and prompting foreign investors to sell Japanese stocks and bonds. The government is trying to counter the rise in the USD/JPY pair. Will it work? Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan.

The article covers the following subjects:

Major Takeaways

  • Foreign investors are actively selling Japanese stocks.
  • Capital outflows are hurting the yen.
  • The Bank of Japan warns of the looming stagflation.
  • Consider adding to the long trades opened at 158.5.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yen

Japan emerged as a key casualty of the Middle East conflict, with the yen and related assets under heavy pressure, prompting investors to sell. Foreign investors have been accelerating those sales since September 2024. Capital outflows and rising stagflation risks are driving the USD/JPY pair higher, despite government efforts to stem the yen’s slide. The question is whether verbal intervention alone can deter speculators.

Net Foreign Purchases of Japanese Stocks

Source: Bloomberg.

The Bank of Japan stated that higher oil prices are weighing on corporate profits and consumer spending, warning that escalating tensions in the Middle East could further strain the economy. Companies are already raising prices amid higher energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and a weak yen. Meanwhile, households have cut spending for a third straight month, despite a rise in real wages.

Japan’s Household Spending

Source: Bloomberg.

Therefore, the economy is potentially moving toward stagflation, leaving the Bank of Japan with a difficult choice. Should it raise rates to contain inflation or keep policy loose to support demand? Futures markets are pricing in about a 70% chance of monetary policy tightening, which is already curbing USD/JPY bulls.

Another risk is the threat of currency intervention. The government keeps signaling it, and the dollar’s approach to the ¥160 level is making investors increasingly nervous. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Donald Trump’s remarks are fueling volatility across global markets, adding that authorities are ready to respond at any time with appropriate measures.

UBS analysts doubt Japanese authorities can stop the USD/JPY pair from rising further. The bank argues that if Brent crude climbs to $150 a barrel, pressure on the yen will intensify, making FX intervention less effective. Any intervention-driven pullbacks are likely to attract fresh buyers. UBS also warns that if the government shifts toward fiscal measures to offset the impact of inflation, investors may see it as a reluctance to support the currency. In that scenario, the dollar may advance toward ¥175.

A more bearish scenario would involve a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. This could happen if Donald Trump does not extend the ultimatum deadline and the US moves to target Iran’s energy infrastructure. In that case, Brent could push above its March highs, putting additional pressure on the yen.

Weekly USDJPY Trading Plan

Further gains in USD/JPY may prompt currency interventions, raising the risk of a sharp pullback. This decline can be used to open new long trades or add to those initiated at 158.5.


This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.


According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.

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8 04, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Consolidates at Critical $73.00 Pivot Amid Market Uncertainty

By |2026-04-08T04:54:49+02:00April 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


BitcoinWorld

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Consolidates at Critical $73.00 Pivot Amid Market Uncertainty

Global silver markets entered a critical consolidation phase this week, with the XAG/USD pair hovering around the significant $73.00 level. This pivotal price point coincides precisely with the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on key trading charts, creating a technical battleground that could determine the precious metal’s near-term trajectory. Market analysts globally are scrutinizing this convergence of price and momentum indicator, as it often signals major trend decisions. Consequently, traders await clear directional signals from both technical patterns and fundamental macroeconomic data.

Silver Price Forecast: Technical Analysis of the $73.00 Zone

The $73.00 level represents more than just a psychological round number for XAG/USD. Currently, it acts as a confluence zone where several critical technical factors intersect. Firstly, the 200-period EMA on the four-hour chart provides dynamic resistance. Secondly, this area previously served as both support and resistance throughout the previous quarter. A sustained break above this barrier could open the path toward the next resistance cluster near $75.50. Conversely, rejection here might see silver retreat toward the $70.00 support level. Market volume profiles indicate significant liquidity resides around this price, suggesting heightened volatility potential.

Technical indicators present a mixed picture, reflecting the current consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily timeframes oscillates near the 50 midline, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows minimal momentum, with its signal line flattening. This technical indecision typically precedes a substantial price movement. Chart patterns, including a symmetrical triangle formation on lower timeframes, suggest a compression of energy that will eventually resolve with a breakout.

Key Technical Levels for XAG/USD

Understanding the immediate technical landscape requires examining specific price thresholds. The following table outlines the crucial support and resistance zones traders are monitoring:

Level Type Significance
$75.50 – $76.00 Resistance Previous swing high & 50-week EMA
$73.00 – $73.50 Pivot Zone Current price & 200-period EMA
$70.00 Support Psychological level & recent low
$68.20 Strong Support 2024 yearly opening price

Macroeconomic Drivers Influencing Silver’s Consolidation

Beyond the charts, fundamental forces exert considerable pressure on silver prices. The primary driver remains the outlook for U.S. monetary policy and interest rates. Market participants closely watch Federal Reserve communications for clues on the timing of potential rate cuts. Higher interest rates typically strengthen the U.S. dollar, which weighs on dollar-denominated commodities like silver. However, silver also benefits from its status as an inflation hedge. Consequently, persistent inflation data can create conflicting impulses for the metal.

Industrial demand constitutes another crucial fundamental pillar. Silver possesses extensive applications in photovoltaic solar panels, electronics, and automotive sectors. Therefore, global manufacturing PMI data and green energy investment trends directly impact physical demand forecasts. Recent reports from the Silver Institute indicate a structural supply deficit persists, providing a underlying supportive floor for prices. Geopolitical tensions and central bank diversification into precious metals further contribute to a complex demand picture.

Expert Analysis on Market Sentiment

Financial institutions provide nuanced perspectives on the current standoff. Analysts at major banks note that trader positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows managed money net-long positions have decreased slightly from recent highs. This suggests some profit-taking occurred near the $73.00 region. However, the overall net-long stance remains substantial, indicating underlying bullish conviction. Meanwhile, physical silver holdings in exchange-traded funds (ETFs) like iShares Silver Trust (SLV) have shown marginal outflows, reflecting a cautious short-term sentiment among some investors.

Seasonal patterns also offer context. Historically, the second quarter often brings increased volatility for precious metals. This period frequently aligns with renewed focus on industrial demand projections and mid-year portfolio rebalancing. Consequently, the current consolidation may represent a pause before seasonal trends reassert their influence. Market technicians emphasize that a confirmed close above the 200-period EMA with strong volume would significantly improve the technical outlook, potentially triggering algorithmic buying programs.

Comparative Performance: Silver Versus Other Assets

Silver’s performance must be evaluated relative to other market assets to gain full context. The gold-to-silver ratio, a closely watched metric, currently sits near 85 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. This ratio remains above its long-term historical average, suggesting silver may be undervalued relative to gold. Such a disparity often attracts value-oriented investors to the white metal. Additionally, silver has recently demonstrated lower correlation with equity markets, enhancing its potential role in diversified portfolios during periods of stock market uncertainty.

Compared to industrial metals like copper, silver shows a hybrid behavior. It sometimes tracks copper on industrial demand optimism but decouples during risk-off sentiment, reverting to its safe-haven characteristics. This dual nature makes its price action particularly sensitive to shifts in broader market narratives between growth and caution. Key factors to monitor include:

  • U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) movements
  • Real Treasury yields (adjusted for inflation)
  • Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data
  • Central bank gold and silver purchasing reports

Potential Scenarios and Price Trajectories

Market consensus outlines several plausible paths forward from the $73.00 consolidation. The bullish scenario requires a decisive breakout above $73.50, confirmed by a weekly close. This could propel XAG/USD toward testing the $76.00 resistance, with an extended target near $78.00 if macroeconomic conditions turn favorable. The neutral scenario envisions continued range-bound trading between $70.00 and $75.00, as markets await clearer signals on interest rates and economic growth. The bearish scenario would involve a breakdown below the $70.00 support, potentially targeting a retest of the $68.20 region.

Risk management remains paramount for traders navigating this pivotal zone. Volatility expectations, derived from options pricing, have edged higher, reflecting uncertainty about the impending directional move. Many trading desks advise using defined-risk strategies like option spreads or waiting for a confirmed breakout before committing significant capital. The coming sessions will likely provide the catalyst needed to resolve this technical stalemate, with major economic data releases on the calendar serving as potential triggers.

Conclusion

The silver price forecast hinges on the outcome of the current consolidation around the critical $73.00 level and the 200-period EMA. This technical confluence zone represents a major decision point for XAG/USD, with the direction of the next significant move dependent on both chart patterns and fundamental developments. Traders and investors should monitor volume on breakout attempts, key U.S. economic data, and broader commodity market sentiment. Ultimately, the resolution of this standoff will provide valuable signals for the medium-term trend in silver markets, impacting portfolio allocations across the precious metals complex.

FAQs

Q1: What does it mean when a price consolidates at a moving average?
Consolidation at a moving average, like the 200-period EMA, indicates a period of price indecision and equilibrium between buyers and sellers. The moving average acts as a dynamic support or resistance level. A sustained break above or below it often signals the resumption of a trend, making it a pivotal area for technical analysis.

Q2: Why is the $73.00 level specifically important for XAG/USD?
The $73.00 level is important due to technical confluence. It aligns with a major moving average (200-period EMA), represents a previous area of market reaction (support/resistance), and is a round psychological number. Such confluence zones attract high trading activity and often dictate short-term market direction.

Q3: How do interest rates affect the price of silver?
Higher interest rates typically strengthen the U.S. dollar, making dollar-priced silver more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can dampen demand. They also increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver. Conversely, expectations of lower rates can weaken the dollar and make silver more attractive, potentially boosting its price.

Q4: What is the significance of the gold-to-silver ratio mentioned?
The gold-to-silver ratio measures how many ounces of silver it takes to purchase one ounce of gold. A ratio above the historical average (around 60-70) can suggest silver is relatively undervalued compared to gold. Some investors use this metric to decide whether to allocate funds to silver or gold, viewing a high ratio as a potential buying signal for silver.

Q5: What key data should I watch to gauge silver’s next move?
Key data includes U.S. inflation reports (CPI, PCE), Federal Reserve meeting minutes and statements, U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) movements, global manufacturing PMI data (for industrial demand insight), and weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders reports to see positioning changes by large speculators and commercial traders.

This post Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Consolidates at Critical $73.00 Pivot Amid Market Uncertainty first appeared on BitcoinWorld.



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8 04, 2026

EUR/USD Analysis Today 07/04: Return of Liquidity Restores Selling Pressure (Chart)

By |2026-04-08T04:50:03+02:00April 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

  • Overall Trend: Remains Bearish.

  • Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1510 – 1.1460 – 1.1390.

  • Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1590 – 1.1630 – 1.1680.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

Buy Scenario:

Sell Scenario:

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

Following yesterday’s holiday, liquidity has returned to the markets. At the same time, risk sentiment remains fragile amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Investors are closely monitoring developments after Donald Trump threatened to target Iranian bridges and oil facilities if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Tuesday evening. This geopolitical ambiguity is keeping traders cautious and benefiting safe-haven currencies.

This situation is negative for the EUR/USD pair. It attempted a rebound, but gains were limited to the 1.1571 level, before quickly resuming its broader downward trend to the 1.1525 support level at the time of writing.

According to the technical analysis on the daily chart, breaking the 1.1500 support level reinforces the bearish bias. Technical indicators confirm this, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the 50 neutral line, supporting the bears’ push for the currency pair to lower levels until the indicator reaches oversold territory. This could happen quickly if the pair falls to the 1.1400 support level, as occurred in the middle of last month’s trading. The MACD indicator and moving averages still support the strength of the downtrend in the coming days.

To break the overall bearish trend and initiate a technical upward reversal, bulls must stabilize above the 1.1640 resistance.

Fundamental Analysis EUR/USD:

The economic focus for today, Tuesday, remains on the Eurozone Investor Confidence Index (Sentix), which is expected to reflect the impact of regional conflict and energy price shocks on investor sentiment. It will be released at 10:30 AM Egypt time. Prior to that, the Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings will be released. However, given the weak liquidity and general geopolitical concerns, this indicator is unlikely to generate a significant market reaction.

On the US side, the durable goods orders reading will be released at 2:30 PM Egypt time.

From a monetary policy perspective, this pair reflects the ongoing divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the US Federal Reserve. Inflationary pressures in the Eurozone have prompted ECB officials to hint at a possible interest rate hike, which strengthens the euro. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve Chairman has indicated that the bank is continuously monitoring the impact of rising oil prices on inflation and will either tighten or wait at the appropriate time. Overall, this divergence in monetary policy expectations continues to influence the exchange rate of this currency pair.

Trading Advice:

Dear TradersUp trader, the Euro will remain under constant pressure as long as the conflict in the Middle East persists and oil prices continue to rise, which negatively impacts the Eurozone

Ready to trade our Forex daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best regulated forex brokers UK in the industry for you.

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8 04, 2026

Why Oil Prices Are Rising? WTI Near $112, Can It Hit $150? New Oil Price Predictions

By |2026-04-08T00:53:02+02:00April 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


WTI crude oil settled at $112.41 per barrel on Monday, April
7, 2026, while Brent closed at $109.77, as President Trump’s Tuesday night
ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz kept the market on edge. Both
benchmarks have nearly doubled since January, when WTI traded below $58, making
this the steepest year-to-date rally since 2008.

Six months ago, the oil price prediction consensus centered
on oversupply and sub-$60 crude. The effective closure of the Strait, through
which 20% of global oil supply once flowed daily, has replaced that narrative
entirely.

Goldman Sachs now calls it the largest supply shock in the
history of the global crude market, and the question facing traders is no
longer whether prices stay elevated, but how high they can go.

Follow
me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk

The war
between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran, which began on February 28 with
coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, has now entered its sixth
week with no resolution in sight. Trump gave Iran until Tuesday, April 8, at 8
PM ET to reopen the Strait or face strikes on every bridge and power plant in
the country. Iran rejected Washington’s ceasefire proposal and submitted its
own 10-point plan, which includes a permanent end to hostilities and the
lifting of sanctions, according to Axios.

The scale
of supply destruction is historic. TD Securities estimates nearly 1 billion
barrels will be lost by the end of April, comprising approximately 600 million
barrels of crude and 350 million barrels of refined products. Ryan McKay,
senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, wrote in a note to clients that
the conflict lasting into deep April means the supply math is getting worse by
the day. Rapidan Energy projects a total net loss of 630 million barrels of oil
and products by the end of June.

Samer Hasn,
Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, noted that the continued surge comes as
markets anticipate further escalation, which threatens structural disruption to
crude oil supply chains originating in the region. He added that energy markets
are bracing for a massive supply shock as the geopolitical theater enters the
most dangerous phase of the war.

OPEC+
agreed on Sunday to boost production by 206,000 barrels per day in May, but as Finance Magnates’ analysis of the
74% three-week oil price surge
from March 9 established, the theoretical increase is meaningless while
the Strait remains closed and Gulf infrastructure sustains ongoing damage. Kuwait
Petroleum Corporation reported significant drone damage to several operational
facilities over the weekend. OPEC+ itself warned that repairing energy
infrastructure attacked during the conflict is costly and time-consuming.

However, there are early signs of a partial thaw. Shipping
data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed 8 tankers transited the
Strait on Monday, up from fewer than 2 per day throughout March. That remains a
fraction of prewar volumes, but represents the first measurable improvement
since hostilities began.

Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship
Management at Kudotrade, noted that early signs of potential de-escalation have
tempered supply concerns to a degree, pushing prices down from intraday highs.
But he cautioned that underlying conditions remain fragile and vessel transit
through the Strait remains limited.

Oil Technical Analysis:
WTI Oil Price Chart at 2022 War Levels

My chart shows WTI crude has been trading since early March
within a volatility channel that mirrors the price range observed during the
2022 Ukraine war spike. Based on my over 15 years of experience as an analyst
and trader, this is a structurally significant pattern.

The resistance zone at $114-$115 per barrel forms the upper
boundary of the current consolidation. WTI has tested this area for three
consecutive sessions without a decisive breakout. In 2022, this same price zone
marked the beginning of the final push toward the $130 intraday high. A
sustained close above $115 would suggest the market is repricing for a
prolonged disruption scenario rather than a near-term resolution.

The lower boundary sits at approximately $84 per barrel,
corresponding to the session lows from early March that were subsequently
retested in late March. This level coincides with the 50-day exponential moving
average, reinforcing its importance as dynamic support. As the Finance
Magnates coverage of the initial Strait of Hormuz closure
from March 2
documented, the oil price gap that opened between $66 and $84 during the first
week of the conflict remains partially unfilled.

Oil WTI price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com

The structural dividing line between a bullish and bearish
WTI outlook sits near $70 per barrel, where the 200-day moving average
currently runs. This level also intersects with the bullish gap from the
February-March 2022 Ukraine war breakout. A retreat below the 200 MA would
require either a ceasefire or a resolution far more comprehensive than what is
currently on the table.

Level

Type

Notes

$130

Historical resistance

2022 intraday high, next target if $115 breaks

$114-$115

Resistance zone

Current consolidation ceiling, tested 3 sessions

$112.41

Current price

WTI settlement, April 7, 2026

$84

Support / 50 EMA

March lows, retested late March

$70

200 MA / Trend line

Bullish/bearish structural dividing line

My directional bias remains cautiously bullish as long as
price holds above the 50 EMA at $84. A breakout above $115 targets $130 and
potentially higher. However, the outcome depends less on technical patterns and
more on whether the current crisis produces a diplomatic resolution or an
escalation.

As I noted in previous Finance
Magnates oil market coverage
, the fundamentals shifted the oil narrative
from oversupply to supply crisis in under five weeks, and they can shift it
back just as quickly.

Oil Price Prediction 2026: What Banks and Analysts Forecast

The institutional consensus has undergone a dramatic
revision since February. Before the conflict, Goldman Sachs projected WTI
averaging $53 per barrel in 2026. That forecast now looks like it belongs to a
different era.

Goldman Sachs, led by commodities analyst Daan Struyven,
raised its 2026 average Brent forecast to $85 per barrel on March 22, up from
$77, with the WTI forecast lifted to $79 from $72. The bank’s model assumes
roughly six weeks of severely restricted Hormuz flows. For Q4 2026, Goldman’s
base case sits at $71 Brent and $67 WTI, but its risk scenario, which assumes a
two-month disruption, pushes Q4 Brent to $93. Goldman has flagged a peak
scenario at $135 per barrel if the market needs to force demand destruction to
offset six months of restricted supply.

JPMorgan issued the most aggressive warning among major
banks. The bank’s commodities team cautioned that Brent could overshoot toward
$150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut into mid-May. As
the Finance
Magnates analysis of $200 oil scenarios
from March 30 outlined, Macquarie
and Wood Mackenzie have sketched similar upside ranges, though the $200 level
remains an extreme tail risk rather than a base case.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, whose updated
Short-Term Energy Outlook was due for release on April 7, projected in its
March report that Brent would remain above $95 over the next two months before
falling below $80 in Q3 and toward $70 by year-end. That forecast assumes the
Strait gradually reopens, a condition that has yet to materialize.

The futures curve tells its own story. As oil
traders increasingly turn to prediction markets for forward signals
, the
Brent forward curve prices a decline to $90 by August and below $80 by
December, indicating the market’s base expectation remains that the disruption
is temporary.

Source

Target

Timeframe / Notes

JPMorgan

$150 Brent

If Hormuz closed into mid-May

Goldman Sachs (risk)

$135 Brent

Peak, 6 months of restricted supply

Goldman Sachs (base)

$85 avg / $71 Q4 Brent

2026 average, assumes 6-week disruption

EIA

$95+ near-term, $70 year-end

Assumes gradual Strait reopening

Brent futures curve

$90 Aug / sub-$80 Dec

Market-implied, as of April 7

Goldman Sachs (pre-war)

$53 WTI avg

November 2025 forecast, now obsolete

FAQ

How high can oil prices go in 2026?

JPMorgan warns Brent crude could overshoot toward $150 per
barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed into mid-May. Goldman
Sachs has flagged an extreme peak scenario at $135 per barrel. WTI crude
settled at $112.41 on April 7, 2026, up roughly 96% year-to-date. The outcome
depends primarily on the duration and intensity of the Iran conflict.

Why are oil prices rising so fast in 2026?

The
US-Israeli war on Iran, which began February 28, 2026, effectively closed the
Strait of Hormuz, choking off approximately 20% of global seaborne oil supply. TD
Securities estimates nearly 1 billion barrels of crude and products will be
lost by end of April. This represents the largest supply disruption in the
history of the global crude market, according to Goldman Sachs.

Will oil prices go down in 2026?

The EIA projects Brent falling below $80 per barrel by Q3
and toward $70 by year-end, assuming the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens.
Goldman Sachs’ Q4 2026 base case is $71 Brent and $67 WTI. A ceasefire deal
between the US and Iran would likely trigger a rapid decline in crude prices,
as the futures curve already prices Brent at $90 by August.

What happens to oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz reopens?

A full reopening of the Strait would remove the war premium
currently embedded in crude prices. Before the conflict, Goldman Sachs
projected WTI averaging $53 in 2026. However, analysts caution that even after
a ceasefire, infrastructure damage to Gulf production facilities means supply
normalization could take months, limiting the pace of any price decline.

What is the oil price prediction for the end of 2026?

Goldman Sachs’ base case projects $71 Brent and $67 WTI by
Q4 2026. Under a risk scenario where Hormuz disruptions last two months,
Goldman sees Q4 Brent at $93. JPMorgan’s pre-war outlook assumed Brent
returning to the $60 range. The EIA forecasts approximately $70 Brent by
December, contingent on resumed Strait flows and US production growth averaging
13.6 million barrels per day.

WTI crude oil settled at $112.41 per barrel on Monday, April
7, 2026, while Brent closed at $109.77, as President Trump’s Tuesday night
ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz kept the market on edge. Both
benchmarks have nearly doubled since January, when WTI traded below $58, making
this the steepest year-to-date rally since 2008.

Six months ago, the oil price prediction consensus centered
on oversupply and sub-$60 crude. The effective closure of the Strait, through
which 20% of global oil supply once flowed daily, has replaced that narrative
entirely.

Goldman Sachs now calls it the largest supply shock in the
history of the global crude market, and the question facing traders is no
longer whether prices stay elevated, but how high they can go.

Follow
me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk

The war
between the US-Israeli coalition and Iran, which began on February 28 with
coordinated strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, has now entered its sixth
week with no resolution in sight. Trump gave Iran until Tuesday, April 8, at 8
PM ET to reopen the Strait or face strikes on every bridge and power plant in
the country. Iran rejected Washington’s ceasefire proposal and submitted its
own 10-point plan, which includes a permanent end to hostilities and the
lifting of sanctions, according to Axios.

The scale
of supply destruction is historic. TD Securities estimates nearly 1 billion
barrels will be lost by the end of April, comprising approximately 600 million
barrels of crude and 350 million barrels of refined products. Ryan McKay,
senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, wrote in a note to clients that
the conflict lasting into deep April means the supply math is getting worse by
the day. Rapidan Energy projects a total net loss of 630 million barrels of oil
and products by the end of June.

Samer Hasn,
Senior Market Analyst at XS.com, noted that the continued surge comes as
markets anticipate further escalation, which threatens structural disruption to
crude oil supply chains originating in the region. He added that energy markets
are bracing for a massive supply shock as the geopolitical theater enters the
most dangerous phase of the war.

OPEC+
agreed on Sunday to boost production by 206,000 barrels per day in May, but as Finance Magnates’ analysis of the
74% three-week oil price surge
from March 9 established, the theoretical increase is meaningless while
the Strait remains closed and Gulf infrastructure sustains ongoing damage. Kuwait
Petroleum Corporation reported significant drone damage to several operational
facilities over the weekend. OPEC+ itself warned that repairing energy
infrastructure attacked during the conflict is costly and time-consuming.

However, there are early signs of a partial thaw. Shipping
data from S&P Global Market Intelligence showed 8 tankers transited the
Strait on Monday, up from fewer than 2 per day throughout March. That remains a
fraction of prewar volumes, but represents the first measurable improvement
since hostilities began.

Konstantinos Chrysikos, Head of Customer Relationship
Management at Kudotrade, noted that early signs of potential de-escalation have
tempered supply concerns to a degree, pushing prices down from intraday highs.
But he cautioned that underlying conditions remain fragile and vessel transit
through the Strait remains limited.

Oil Technical Analysis:
WTI Oil Price Chart at 2022 War Levels

My chart shows WTI crude has been trading since early March
within a volatility channel that mirrors the price range observed during the
2022 Ukraine war spike. Based on my over 15 years of experience as an analyst
and trader, this is a structurally significant pattern.

The resistance zone at $114-$115 per barrel forms the upper
boundary of the current consolidation. WTI has tested this area for three
consecutive sessions without a decisive breakout. In 2022, this same price zone
marked the beginning of the final push toward the $130 intraday high. A
sustained close above $115 would suggest the market is repricing for a
prolonged disruption scenario rather than a near-term resolution.

The lower boundary sits at approximately $84 per barrel,
corresponding to the session lows from early March that were subsequently
retested in late March. This level coincides with the 50-day exponential moving
average, reinforcing its importance as dynamic support. As the Finance
Magnates coverage of the initial Strait of Hormuz closure
from March 2
documented, the oil price gap that opened between $66 and $84 during the first
week of the conflict remains partially unfilled.

Oil WTI price technical analysis. Source: Tradingview.com

The structural dividing line between a bullish and bearish
WTI outlook sits near $70 per barrel, where the 200-day moving average
currently runs. This level also intersects with the bullish gap from the
February-March 2022 Ukraine war breakout. A retreat below the 200 MA would
require either a ceasefire or a resolution far more comprehensive than what is
currently on the table.

Level

Type

Notes

$130

Historical resistance

2022 intraday high, next target if $115 breaks

$114-$115

Resistance zone

Current consolidation ceiling, tested 3 sessions

$112.41

Current price

WTI settlement, April 7, 2026

$84

Support / 50 EMA

March lows, retested late March

$70

200 MA / Trend line

Bullish/bearish structural dividing line

My directional bias remains cautiously bullish as long as
price holds above the 50 EMA at $84. A breakout above $115 targets $130 and
potentially higher. However, the outcome depends less on technical patterns and
more on whether the current crisis produces a diplomatic resolution or an
escalation.

As I noted in previous Finance
Magnates oil market coverage
, the fundamentals shifted the oil narrative
from oversupply to supply crisis in under five weeks, and they can shift it
back just as quickly.

Oil Price Prediction 2026: What Banks and Analysts Forecast

The institutional consensus has undergone a dramatic
revision since February. Before the conflict, Goldman Sachs projected WTI
averaging $53 per barrel in 2026. That forecast now looks like it belongs to a
different era.

Goldman Sachs, led by commodities analyst Daan Struyven,
raised its 2026 average Brent forecast to $85 per barrel on March 22, up from
$77, with the WTI forecast lifted to $79 from $72. The bank’s model assumes
roughly six weeks of severely restricted Hormuz flows. For Q4 2026, Goldman’s
base case sits at $71 Brent and $67 WTI, but its risk scenario, which assumes a
two-month disruption, pushes Q4 Brent to $93. Goldman has flagged a peak
scenario at $135 per barrel if the market needs to force demand destruction to
offset six months of restricted supply.

JPMorgan issued the most aggressive warning among major
banks. The bank’s commodities team cautioned that Brent could overshoot toward
$150 per barrel if the Strait of Hormuz stays effectively shut into mid-May. As
the Finance
Magnates analysis of $200 oil scenarios
from March 30 outlined, Macquarie
and Wood Mackenzie have sketched similar upside ranges, though the $200 level
remains an extreme tail risk rather than a base case.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration, whose updated
Short-Term Energy Outlook was due for release on April 7, projected in its
March report that Brent would remain above $95 over the next two months before
falling below $80 in Q3 and toward $70 by year-end. That forecast assumes the
Strait gradually reopens, a condition that has yet to materialize.

The futures curve tells its own story. As oil
traders increasingly turn to prediction markets for forward signals
, the
Brent forward curve prices a decline to $90 by August and below $80 by
December, indicating the market’s base expectation remains that the disruption
is temporary.

Source

Target

Timeframe / Notes

JPMorgan

$150 Brent

If Hormuz closed into mid-May

Goldman Sachs (risk)

$135 Brent

Peak, 6 months of restricted supply

Goldman Sachs (base)

$85 avg / $71 Q4 Brent

2026 average, assumes 6-week disruption

EIA

$95+ near-term, $70 year-end

Assumes gradual Strait reopening

Brent futures curve

$90 Aug / sub-$80 Dec

Market-implied, as of April 7

Goldman Sachs (pre-war)

$53 WTI avg

November 2025 forecast, now obsolete

FAQ

How high can oil prices go in 2026?

JPMorgan warns Brent crude could overshoot toward $150 per
barrel if the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed into mid-May. Goldman
Sachs has flagged an extreme peak scenario at $135 per barrel. WTI crude
settled at $112.41 on April 7, 2026, up roughly 96% year-to-date. The outcome
depends primarily on the duration and intensity of the Iran conflict.

Why are oil prices rising so fast in 2026?

The
US-Israeli war on Iran, which began February 28, 2026, effectively closed the
Strait of Hormuz, choking off approximately 20% of global seaborne oil supply. TD
Securities estimates nearly 1 billion barrels of crude and products will be
lost by end of April. This represents the largest supply disruption in the
history of the global crude market, according to Goldman Sachs.

Will oil prices go down in 2026?

The EIA projects Brent falling below $80 per barrel by Q3
and toward $70 by year-end, assuming the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens.
Goldman Sachs’ Q4 2026 base case is $71 Brent and $67 WTI. A ceasefire deal
between the US and Iran would likely trigger a rapid decline in crude prices,
as the futures curve already prices Brent at $90 by August.

What happens to oil prices if the Strait of Hormuz reopens?

A full reopening of the Strait would remove the war premium
currently embedded in crude prices. Before the conflict, Goldman Sachs
projected WTI averaging $53 in 2026. However, analysts caution that even after
a ceasefire, infrastructure damage to Gulf production facilities means supply
normalization could take months, limiting the pace of any price decline.

What is the oil price prediction for the end of 2026?

Goldman Sachs’ base case projects $71 Brent and $67 WTI by
Q4 2026. Under a risk scenario where Hormuz disruptions last two months,
Goldman sees Q4 Brent at $93. JPMorgan’s pre-war outlook assumed Brent
returning to the $60 range. The EIA forecasts approximately $70 Brent by
December, contingent on resumed Strait flows and US production growth averaging
13.6 million barrels per day.



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8 04, 2026

The EURJPY without any news– Forecast today – 7-4-2026

By |2026-04-08T00:49:00+02:00April 8, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

No news for EURJPY pair until this moment, affected by the positivity of the main indicators, which forces it to delay the bearish attack and keep forming bullish corrective waves, to settle near 184.30.

 

Reminding you that the negative scenario will remain valid, depending on the stability of the initial resistance at 184.80, which makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to motivate it to target the negative stations by reaching 183.10 followed by 182.20.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 183.30 and 184.55

 

Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bearish track



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7 04, 2026

Forecast update for EURUSD -07-04-2026.

By |2026-04-07T20:52:07+02:00April 7, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


No news for EURJPY pair until this moment, affected by the positivity of the main indicators, which forces it to delay the bearish attack and keep forming bullish corrective waves, to settle near 184.30.

 

Reminding you that the negative scenario will remain valid, depending on the stability of the initial resistance at 184.80, which makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to motivate it to target the negative stations by reaching 183.10 followed by 182.20.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 183.30 and 184.55

 

Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bearish track





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7 04, 2026

Defiant Rally Maintains Bullish Bias Above Critical 100-Day EMA Support

By |2026-04-07T20:48:08+02:00April 7, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments















EUR/JPY Forecast: Defiant Rally Maintains Bullish Bias Above Critical 100-Day EMA Support


































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