The GBP/USD pair is currently situated at 1.3316. I am looking at how the recent advance stalled within the 1.3353-1.3404 resistance zone, which happens to be the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels from the move lower from 1.3569. Sellers defended this area in mid-September. The pair has since moved lower and is situated on the 100-hour SMA, which is at 1.3302, the 38.2% level.
I am looking at 1.3353 as the first resistance. A close above this level will open the 1.3404 area, and beyond that the 1.3569 level. The 1.3302 level is the first area of support, followed by the 1.3239 level, which is the 23.6% retracement, and the 1.3137 low.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Rejected at 1.1270 as 1.1188 Support Comes Into Focus
Regional detail also causes a few wrinkles. South Central stocks were at 1,097 Bcf, compared with a five-year average of 1,132 Bcf. Within that region, salt cavern stocks were 236 Bcf against a 279 Bcf average. Other regions partially offset that shortfall in the national comparison. These figures are relevant to the Gulf area balance associated with Henry Hub, but do not by themselves establish any pipeline constraint.
The latest official weather outlook leans against a broad late-October heating surge. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued a discussion at 3 p.m. EDT on Oct. 18 for Oct. 24-28. It favored above-normal temperatures across most of the eastern half of the country, with probabilities exceeding 80% in parts of the Upper Midwest. Cooler-than-normal odds were elevated in parts of the West, while portions of the eastern seaboard leaned closer to normal.
These are probabilities relative to seasonal norms, not measured temperatures or quantified gas-demand forecasts. A warm Upper Midwest could restrain heating needs compared with a colder alternative. However, the location and duration of any outbreaks of cold will still matter, and warm conditions can retain some cooling demand in the very deep South.
EIA’s October Short-Term Energy Outlook provides a broader benchmark with an important timing limitation. Released on Oct. 6 and current through Oct. 1, it forecasts storage of 3,850 Bcf at the end of October, roughly 2% above the five-year average. This is a modeled result, not gas already measured in storage. It also predates NOAA’s Oct. 18 forecast and subsequent operational developments.
The pair took advantage of Stochastic providing additional positive momentum, with the price making an intraday attempt to break above the 210.40 barrier and touching 210.95, bringing it closer to the key resistance level at 211.20.
The price is currently attempting to renew its corrective upside moves while holding above 210.40, increasing the chances of reaching the key resistance level. A break above this barrier would confirm a shift into a bullish trend, paving the way for significant gains that could initially start at 212.00. However, holding below this barrier would push the price to form new bearish waves, forcing it lower toward 209.50 and 208.90.
The expected trading range for today is between 209.80 and 211.20.
As of writing, gold is near $4,184 on the 1-hour chart. What’s notable is how the price has been consolidating in a tight range of $4,176 to $4,201 during the recovery from the mid-month lows. Meanwhile, the rising trendline is reaching the $4,176 support, and both moving averages are located underneath. The faster of the two has crossed above the slower, which is constructive for the short-term outlook.
The initial resistance is at $4,201, a level that has been holding rejections over the past few sessions. A break above that would put $4,218 and then $4,240 in sight. Below, a breakdown of $4,176 and the trendline would open up support at $4,152, and then $4,132 and $4,111.
The pair recently succumbed to conflicting signals from the main technical indicators, particularly as stochastic provided positive momentum, prompting the formation of bullish corrective waves, with the price currently stabilizing near 177.60.
We note that the overall stability below the additional resistance barrier at 177.80 keeps us expecting the price to gather the negative momentum needed to activate the main bearish move, targeting 176.35, followed by the next target at 175.75. However, a break above this barrier and sustained trading above it will give the price an opportunity to recover further losses, gradually advancing toward 178.60 and 179.40.
The expected trading range for today is between 176.35 and 177.80.
Natural gas prices have recently been forced into some sideways trading, stabilizing near $3.060 amid conflicting signals from the main technical indicators, particularly as the 55-period moving average continues to form a strong resistance barrier near $3.250.
We emphasize the importance of gathering additional positive momentum to maintain stability above the support level at $2.850, before attempting to renew pressure on the 55-period moving average. This could create an opportunity to achieve further gains, with the next targets currently standing at $3.420 and $3.550.
The expected trading range for today is between $3.00 and $3.250.
Pound Sterling Reprieve as Dollar Slides, GBP/USD Rebounds from 2026 Low
The US Dollar posted sharp gains after the latest US inflation data, but there was a significant reversal later in the session as Treasury yields fell and a fresh technology-sector sell-off hit global risk sentiment.
The move continued into Asian trading, allowing the Pound to recover sharply against the US currency.
Stronger-than-expected UK GDP data and gains for the FTSE 100 also helped protect Sterling.
After slumping to a fresh 2026 low at 1.3137, the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rebounded towards 1.3250.
According to UoB; “The decline to 1.3137 appears to be more of a range expansion rather than the start of a sustained decline.”
Scotiabank commented; “Despite the volatility in spot in the past 24 hours, the broader range that Cable has been trading within since the spring remains effectively intact. Key support remains 1.3140/50. Gains above 1.3275/80 may drive more strength towards the low/mid 1.33s.”
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The outlook for Federal Reserve policy has become more uncertain following the sharp move in equities.
Immediately after the stronger US CPI release, markets raised the probability of an October Fed rate increase towards 50%.
Those expectations subsequently fell back as Treasury yields retreated and the technology sector came under heavy selling pressure.
A sustained decline in equities would tighten financial conditions and reduce the urgency for another near-term Fed hike.
MUFG commented; “We are still assuming that the Fed will leave rates on hold this month after comments from Fed officials indicating that they are not in a rush to hike again as soon as this month.”
The bank also highlighted the importance of changes in financial conditions following the technology sell-off.
MUFG commented; “After record capital inflows into the US equity market encouraged by investor optimism over AI, the price action overnight highlights that it leaves the US dollar vulnerable to a correction lower when investor sentiment towards AI sours.”
It added; “Nevertheless, the current fundamental backdrop remains supportive for the US dollar.”
AI Sell-Off Changes the Usual Dollar Reaction
ING also noted that the latest market move provided an unusual test of the Dollar’s traditional safe-haven role.
The bank commented; “For the FX market, overnight price action provides a preview of how currencies will perform during a big AI correction. Rather than rallying as a safe haven, the dollar weakens as the Fed cycle gets repriced dovishly.”
That dynamic could remain important if technology shares continue to fall.
Further equity-market weakness would likely pull US yields lower and reduce expectations of additional Fed tightening, which could place more pressure on the Dollar.
Conversely, a stabilisation in equities combined with persistently high inflation could restore expectations of another rate increase and revive Dollar demand.
For GBP/USD, the 1.3140-1.3150 area remains the key downside support zone.
A sustained break below that area would expose 1.3000.
On the upside, a move through 1.3275-1.3280 would strengthen the recovery and bring the low-to-mid 1.33s back into focus.
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That was a number buyers could work with on Thursday. It was not enough to keep them involved Friday.
Storage is still 1.3% above the five-year seasonal average, even though inventories are 4.1% below a year ago. The EIA still sees end-of-October storage reaching 3,985 Bcf, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average.
Europe Is Still Supporting the Demand Side
European gas prices reached a 3.75-year high Friday. Storage was 74% full on October 14, well below the 89% five-year seasonal average.
U.S. LNG flows were 20.5 Bcf per day, up 6.2% from the prior week. That is still the bullish side of the trade.
Physical prices fell into the weekend outside the East. The market has European demand in front of it, but the weather trade is still winning at home.
LNG can keep the demand side from disappearing. It cannot create heating demand when the weather is not there.
Production Is Coming Back Into the Trade
Lower-48 dry gas production reached 113.9 Bcf per day Friday, up 5.0% from a year earlier, according to BNEF. Lower-48 gas demand was 71.5 Bcf per day, up 1.1% from a year earlier.
That production number is what makes the storage forecast hard to dismiss. The EIA raised its 2027 dry gas production estimate to 116.0 Bcf per day from 115.3 Bcf per day in July. Baker Hughes added one gas rig Friday, bringing the count to 133, just under the September 25 three-year high of 135.
The TCO outage gave the market a supply story Thursday. The expectation that the outage will be resolved Saturday gave traders less reason to carry that premium into the weekend.
What to Watch
The mild forecast gets the first vote when trading opens. Thursday’s smaller storage build, high European prices and strong LNG flows are still part of the bullish case. But the TCO repair, production at 113.9 Bcf per day and warm weather through month-end are the reasons buyers left Friday’s trade.
The November trend turned down after the break under $3.092. The two main tops at $3.334 and $3.395 leave the bias to the downside. The 50-day moving average at $3.068 held Friday’s low, but a sustained move under it puts the main bottoms between $2.912 and $2.896 back in front of the market.
December has the weaker chart after failing at its 50-day moving average. The current setup is bearish with December natural gas futures on the weak side of the 50-day moving average during a swing-chart downtrend. The $3.448 to $3.394 area is Monday’s first line. A recovery through the zone would ease the pressure. A break under it leaves $3.234 as the next major downside target.
Platinum prices staged some bullish corrective trades after touching the $1,595.00 level, which acted as an additional barrier against bearish pressure. The price is currently fluctuating near $1640.00. However, this rebound poses no threat to the bearish trend, as the $1740.00 level continues to act as the first main resistance barrier.
Based on the above, we will continue to wait for the price to gather additional negative momentum, enabling it to break $1595.00 and hold below this level. This would pave the way for further declines toward the next bearish targets at $1555.00 and $1510.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1555.00 and $1675.00.
