The EURUSD pair continues to fluctuate in its latest intraday trading, as it attempts to gain positive momentum that could help it recover and resume its short-term corrective uptrend. This outlook is supported by the pair’s continued trading above EMA50, as well as the earlier breakout above a major bearish trend line. However, the emergence of a bearish crossover in the relative strength indicators suggests that the pair’s recovery attempts may face temporary obstacles.
EUR/USD daily chart showing the euro consolidating near 1.1232 after falling below the 1.1350 support level.
The euro is where I start today. Recently, we’ve seen a pretty significant sell-off in the euro, followed by some consolidation. I suspect downward pressure is still going to be a fundamental part of this market, and I believe that the 1.1350 level above remains a bit of a barrier. Any signs of exhaustion after a short-term rally is what I’m looking for.
Silver is currently trading at $57.37. What is particularly interesting to me on the 1-hour chart is a triangle pattern. This occurs when price is gradually squeezed into a smaller and smaller range, with a falling trendline above and a rising trendline below that gradually converge. Yesterday’s price action toward $58.65 was pushed away from the upper falling trendline.
The first support area grabbing my attention is at $57.39. The next area is at $56.92, the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with the lower rising trendline just below near $56.72. A break below the trendline would break the pattern and open up $56.34. The resistance area I’m watching is $57.86, followed by the upper falling trendline near $58.37 and then $58.70.
The pair took advantage of its repeated stability above 210.40, along with the positive momentum generated by stochastic as it reached overbought territory, to form new bullish waves. This brought the price within a short distance of its target at 212.20, before it began moving sideways as this level formed an additional barrier to further upside attempts.
The 55-period moving average remains positioned above the current price, creating a conflicting technical signal that prevents confirmation of a bullish trend reversal. This leads us to favor some bearish trading, potentially targeting 210.80 and then 210.00. However, a breakout above the 55-period moving average, followed by sustained trading above it, would confirm the pair’s readiness to achieve further gains, with targets at 212.65 and 213.25, respectively.
The expected trading range for today is between 210.00 and 212.00.
The EURUSD pair declined in its latest intraday trading, continuing its attempts to gain the positive momentum needed to resume its recovery and rise again. This comes amid a short-term bullish corrective wave, with ongoing positive support from trading above EMA50, which strengthens the chances of further gains in the near term, especially as the relative strength indicators have entered deeply oversold territory compared to the pair’s price action.
The pair posted another negative close below the resistance barrier at 177.80, forming bearish waves while settling near 177.45, affected by stochastics’ attempt to exit overbought territory, allowing the pair to gather additional negative momentum in the current period.
The successful accumulation of bearish momentum reinforces our negative outlook, targeting 176.35 in the near term, reaching the next target near 175.75. However, a rise above the resistance barrier, accompanied by a positive close, would confirm the pair’s submission to the dominance of the bullish corrective trend. In this scenario, we would expect the price to pursue further gains, gradually advancing toward 178.60 and 179.40.
The expected trading range for today is between 176.35 and 177.80.
Platinum maintained its bearish positioning so far, remaining below the resistance barrier at $1740.00, confirming its readiness to resume its downward attempts as it currently edges toward $1635.00.
The formation of an additional resistance barrier at $1670.00 could increase the chances of the price gathering the negative momentum needed to reach the next bearish targets, currently located at $1555.00 and $1505.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1550.00 and $1670.00
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved higher on Tuesday after unexpectedly strong UK employment figures reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise interest rates in November.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3346, up approximately 0.3% from Tuesday’s opening levels.
Sterling found fresh support after the latest UK labour market report delivered a considerably stronger performance than economists had anticipated.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the unemployment rate fell from 4.9% to 4.7% in the three months to August, defying expectations for a broadly unchanged reading.
Employment also increased by 102,000, comfortably exceeding forecasts for a rise of just 20,000.
Wage growth provided further encouragement for Pound investors.
Regular earnings, excluding bonuses, accelerated from 3.6% to 3.7% year-on-year, suggesting that underlying pay pressures remain persistent despite earlier signs of a cooling labour market.
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The stronger figures reinforced expectations that the BoE will deliver another 25-basis-point interest rate increase at its November meeting.
With unemployment falling and wage growth remaining firm, policymakers may have less reason to delay further tightening, particularly while inflation continues to exceed the Bank’s 2% target.
The prospect of higher UK borrowing costs helped Sterling strengthen against several of its major counterparts.
The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, struggled to attract demand on Tuesday as improving market sentiment reduced appetite for traditional safe-haven currencies.
Although oil prices remained elevated and concerns persisted over the possibility of renewed escalation in the Middle East, investors showed a greater willingness to hold riskier assets.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates more gradually than previously anticipated also limited support for the ‘Greenback’.
US political developments added another source of uncertainty.
Recent polling suggesting stronger support for the Democrats ahead of the mid-term elections raised questions over whether President Donald Trump could face greater opposition to his legislative agenda.
However, the Dollar’s losses remained relatively contained as investors continued to monitor geopolitical risks and the outlook for US monetary policy.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Inflation Could Extend Sterling’s Gains
Wednesday’s UK consumer price index (CPI) release will provide the next major test for the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate.
Economists expect annual headline inflation to accelerate from 3.1% to 3.4% in September, adding to concerns that price pressures remain stubbornly elevated.
Following Tuesday’s stronger employment figures, an above-forecast inflation reading would strengthen the case for another Bank of England rate increase in November.
This could allow Sterling to build on its latest gains and challenge the $1.3400 level.
However, a softer inflation reading could temper expectations for further tightening and encourage some profit-taking following the Pound’s recent recovery.
For the US Dollar, the absence of major economic releases may leave broader market sentiment as the main influence on trading.
Renewed geopolitical tensions or a deterioration in risk appetite could revive demand for the safe-haven Dollar, potentially limiting GBP/USD’s upside.
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In addition to the rising channel that suggests a potential target near the upper boundary of that pattern, crude oil broke out of a falling bullish wedge continuation pattern two weeks ago. That breakout preceded the rally to $97.17 but there has not yet been a notable pullback since the breakout. Tuesday’s price action suggests that the first pullback may have just begun. If support holds above $88.66 and is followed by renewed strength, a higher swing low would reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of another advance as the wedge breakout continues to unfold.
Upside Targets Reach Toward $120
An initial upside target zone extends from $106.89 to $109.74, where several technical indicators converge. This zone remains valid unless weakness breaks support at the 50-day moving average, now near $92.89 and rising. Beyond that zone, a rising ABCD pattern projects a potential target at $120.90, close to the March spike high of $119.54, where resistance could emerge.
USD/JPY remains stuck near key resistance at 158.00 – 158.50 as traders focus on Treasury yield dynamics. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.79% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back towards 5.12%.
In case USD/JPY declines below the 158.00 level, it will head towards the 157.00 level. A move below 157.00 will open the way to the test of the support at 155.00 – 155.50. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
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