The US Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate remains close to multi-decade highs and is trading around 160.20 after repeatedly testing the 160 level over recent weeks.
Citi expects USD/JPY to remain elevated in the short term but continues to forecast a move lower towards 155 by the end of the year. The bank believes the 160 area should act as an effective ceiling for the currency pair.
According to Citi, the recent resilience of USD/JPY is surprising given that long-term interest-rate differentials between the US and Japan have narrowed significantly, a development that would normally support Yen appreciation.
The bank argues that strong hedging-related Yen selling linked to record-high Japanese equity holdings has become a key factor supporting USD/JPY and offsetting the impact of narrower yield spreads.
Citi’s proprietary valuation models suggest that current USD/JPY levels remain broadly justified by market fundamentals and international capital flows. The bank’s analysis indicates there is no major mispricing in the pair at present.
The bank identifies Japanese equities and the broader US Dollar trend as the two most important drivers of USD/JPY, with interest-rate spreads still playing a significant role in determining direction.
While Citi remains constructive on the Yen over the medium term, it believes that any meaningful short-term decline in USD/JPY would likely require further Bank of Japan policy normalisation and additional currency support measures from Japanese authorities.
For now, Citi expects USD/JPY to remain close to current levels, but continues to forecast a gradual correction lower towards 155 as monetary policy normalisation and a moderation in Yen-selling flows begin to support the Japanese currency.
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The Euro has been somewhat resilient during the trading session on Monday after initially gapping lower.
The 1.15 level is a bit of a support level that I think a lot of people will watch from the psychology standpoint, but I also recognize that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the United States dollar, and the 200-day EMA sits just above the 1.16 level.
The 1.16 level will continue to be important, not only from the 200-day EMA showing up, but it’s also a significant barrier. Ultimately, this is a market that I have no interest in buying, and I do think that any signs of exhaustion will end up being an opportunity to get short again.
Consolidation Range and Market Drivers
The 1.14 level below would be my target overall, as it is the market being stuck in a larger consolidation range. The 1.1850 level above is your ceiling in this pair. The 1.14 level, of course, will be important, and if we were to break down below there, then we could see the EUR/USD market go much lower.
Ultimately, I think this is a market where you continue to see the US 10-year yield be the main driver. And it is worth noting that eventually it fell after spiking higher right around the New York open, but we’ve seen it turn right back around.
Ultimately, I think Europe has major problems, and that will also be perhaps driven by the idea of energy inflation or, worse yet, a lack of energy for the German industrial sector. The United States continues to see inflows, and I think that is your main story here.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
Silver (XAG/USD) tumbles more than 3.5% on Tuesday as price action remains driven by rapidly changing headlines surrounding the Middle East war. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $65.50, its lowest level since March 23.
US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that “the United States must, of necessity, respond to this attack” after Iran allegedly shot down a US Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz.
The comments contrasted sharply with Trump’s earlier remarks that negotiations with Iran were in the “final throes” and that an agreement could be reached within days.
Following the latest developments, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trimmed earlier losses and climbed back toward the 100.00 mark as investors sought safety in the Greenback.
Meanwhile, Silver continues to face headwinds from growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates to contain inflationary pressure stemming from elevated Oil prices.
Traders are now looking ahead to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due on Wednesday. A hotter-than-expected reading would reinforce expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, providing additional support to the US Dollar and potentially adding further pressure on non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the near-term bias remains bearish, with price holding below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) component of the Bollinger Bands at roughly $75.26 and even below the lower band near $65.79, underscoring persistent downside pressure.
Momentum indicators reinforce this soft tone, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 33 in near-oversold territory while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays negative, suggesting that sellers retain control despite some proximity to stretched conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the Bollinger lower band around $65.79, with further hurdles at the Bollinger midline near $75.26 and the upper band toward $84.72, levels that would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish structure.
On the downside, the next notable cushion is the horizontal support at $60.00, where a decisive break would open the door to a deeper corrective leg, while holding above this floor could encourage a period of consolidation within the broader downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
The EURJPY pair resisted the negative pressure, ending the negative attempts by providing positive close above the extra support at 184.25, forming some bullish waves to settle near 185.00.
The contradiction of the main indicators will force the price to provide intraday mixed trading, to expect activating the bullish attempts if it settles above the mentioned support to target 185.50 level, reaching the barrier at 186.00, while the return to settle below the extra support will confirm the dominance of the negative scenario, forcing it to suffer several losses by reaching 183.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 184.25 and 185.45
The domestic coffee market in the morning trading session of June 9, 2026 recorded a return to increase after previous downward adjustment sessions.
According to survey data in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, bulk purchase prices simultaneously increased by 300 to 500 VND per kg compared to yesterday’s trading session, bringing the average price level of the whole region to 85,500 VND/kg.
Specifically, in Dak Lak and Gia Lai, the price both increased by 400 VND, currently trading at 85,500 VND/kg.
In Dak Nong (old), the purchase price increased by 300 VND, reaching the threshold of 85,600 VND/kg, continuing to be the locality with the highest price in the region. In Lam Dong, the price of raw coffee beans increased by 500 VND, reaching 85,000 VND/kg.
Along with coffee, pepper prices also increased by 500 VND, reaching 140,500 VND/kg, while the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank slightly increased by 6 VND, reaching 26,098 VND/USD. This increase shows a slight recovery against supply and demand pressure from the world market.
World coffee prices
In the world market, the diễn biến of coffee prices in the nearest closing session continued to show a clear differentiation between the two main futures exchanges.
On the London exchange, Robusta futures for July 2026 delivery maintained a slight growth momentum when increasing by another 17 USD, equivalent to 0.51%, closing the session at 3,333 USD/ton.
Conversely, on the New York exchange, Arabica futures for July 2026 were under adjustment pressure, down 0.60 cents, equivalent to 0.24%, falling to 245.90 cents/lb.
Coffee price assessment
The pressure weighing on Arabica prices mainly comes from the harvesting activities taking place in Brazil, combined with the weakening of the Brazilian Real against the USD, creating momentum for farmers to boost sales.
However, the decline of world coffee is being significantly restrained by falling inventory data. Specifically, Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange have fallen to a 6-month low of 412,422 bags, while Robusta inventories remain at a low level, playing a role as a “base” to prevent prices from falling deeply.
The coffee market is currently in a state of stalemate between the record seasonal supply from Brazil (forecast at 71.9 million bags) and the real concern of grain shortage. In addition, risk factors such as the El Niño phenomenon, the closure of the Hormuz Strait causing global transport disruptions are still supporting price sentiment in the long term.
In the near future, coffee prices are likely to continue to fluctuate according to weather and currency exchange rates in Brazil.
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) fell to fresh three-week lows as a powerful combination of rising geopolitical tensions, weaker investor risk appetite and growing expectations of higher US interest rates boosted demand for the US Dollar.
With markets increasingly pricing in the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes later this year, Sterling remains under pressure despite showing signs of resilience around the key 1.3300 support level.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Slides to 3-Week Lows
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped to 3-week lows just above 1.3300 on Monday before looking to stabilise.
The Pound was still relatively resilient given the underlying conditions, but the dollar benefitted from renewed ge-political concerns, weaker risk conditions and expectations of higher US interest rates. The dollar index was close to 2-month highs.
GBP/USD survived a test of 1.33 in May, but any slide through this area could trigger losses to 1.3160.
UoB commented; “A break below this level is not ruled out, but deeply oversold conditions suggest GBP might not be able to maintain a foothold below this level.”
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Middle East tensions increased again on Monday following Israeli attacks on Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile launches against Israel and oil prices secured renewed gains.
ING commented; “The geopolitical backdrop is also shifting dollar-positive, with most surprised that Brent is not trading even higher now that Iran and Israel are directly exchanging fire.”
Equity markets registered sharp losses on Friday and the mood remained defensive on Monday while US bond yields moved higher. According to ING; “An unwind of risk assets and especially an unwind of emerging market positions is normally dollar-positive.”
As far as the US economy is concerned, the latest jobs report was stronger than expected with an increase in non-farm payrolls of 172,000 for may compared with consensus forecasts of around 85,000 while the April increase was revised higher to 179,000 from the 115,000 reported previously.
MUFG commented; “Stronger employment growth alongside upside risks to the inflation outlook from the energy price shock in the Middle East has encouraged market participants to price in multiple rate hikes from the Fed in the year ahead.”
ING looked at the important US inflation indicators this week; “At some point, that expected tightening will be too aggressive, but we cannot see that story being unwound this week. This is because it is another week for US price data, where the May headline CPI reading is expected to push through 4% year-on-year, and PPI final demand should remain near 6% YoY.”
Capital Economics chief markets economist Jonas Goltermann also expects higher US rates; “The U.S. payrolls report paints a picture of a U.S. labour market that is strengthening despite the ongoing energy price shock.”
He added; “That combination makes policy tightening by the Fed later this year increasingly probable. We now expect the FOMC to deliver two 25 basis-point rate hikes later this year, in response to the energy supply shock and the re-acceleration of the U.S. labour market.”
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Brent crude oil price remains in a narrow range this week as investors watch the new developments in the ongoing US-Iran crisis. It was trading at $95.40 today, June 5, after Hezbollah rejected the new ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
Brent and the West Texas Intermediate have barely moved this week as investors assessed the current phase of the US-Iran crisis and the dwindling US Strategic Reserves.
Odds of a quick deal between the two sides have now dropped substantially this week as ceasefire talks stalled. Worse, the recent ray of hope between Israel and Lebanon found a major roadblock after Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire.
Hezbollah argued that the ceasefire was not in Lebanon’s interest and amounted to surrender. This means that the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel will continue in the foreseeable future, something that Israel wants.
The challenge, however, is that Iran has insisted that any deal with the US will be contigent on the developments in Lebanon.
Therefore, there is a real risk that the US and Iran will restart their bombing campaigns. Just this week, Iran launched a barrage of missiles towards Kuwait in response to US attacks on its targets.
A renewed phase of fighting would be risky for the world economy, as it would push crude oil prices much higher than where they are today. Besides, data show that US oil inventories have continued falling, while drawdowns from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) have accelerated and moved to the lowest level in years. If this trend continues, chances are that these reserves wil run out in months.
At the same time, the US is now in its driving season,where petroleum demand is usually at its highest. As a result, some top officials and experts warn of an impending danger in the world’s oil market if the Strait of Hormuz continues its closure for longer.
Before the war, 20.3 million barrels of oil used to pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day. This figure has now been reduced to near zero by Iran’s closure and the US blockade.
The world has found some extra oil, with Saudi Arabia boosting its pipeline exports, surging to 7 million barrels per day. Oil exports from the US and other countries like Canada has soared. This, however, has not been enough to offset the losses from the Strait.
Brent crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart reveals that Brent crude oil price has been sending mixed signals in the past few weeks. On the one hand, it has moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bears remain in control.
Brent has also formed a double-top pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis. If this happens, Brent may drop to the key support level at $60.
On the other hand, Brent has formed an island reversal pattern, which happens after a big down gap. If this happens, the price may rebound and move above the key resistance level at $100. Such a move may also push it to $110 and above.
2026.06.09 2026.06.09 Yen Under Pressure As Interventions Yield Little Result. Forecast as of 09.06.2026
Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/
Japan’s previous interventions in the Forex market, totaling $73 billion, have yielded no results. Moreover, the sale of US Treasuries has boosted yields worldwide. In other words, it has damaged Japan’s debt market. Let’s discuss this topic and develop a trading plan for the USD/JPY pair.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
The Forex market is bracing for currency interventions.
Investors are anticipating a rate hike by the BoJ.
Japan needs to choose the lesser of two evils.
Short positions can be opened if the USD/JPY pair drops below 159.85.
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yen
Forewarned is forearmed. Investors are ramping up hedging against a surge in yen volatility to levels not seen since October 2022. At that time, Japan resorted to currency intervention for the first time in many years to halt the rally in USD/JPY quotes. The pair is hovering near the psychologically important 160 level, making it extremely vulnerable to interventions.
Demand for Hedging Against Volatility Surge
Source: Bloomberg.
The authorities do not want a weak yen, which fuels inflation due to rising import prices. This leads to higher bond yields and increases the cost of servicing the massive national debt. The government is turning to currency interventions, fearing that other methods will not be as effective. For example, the Bank of Japan’s tightening of monetary policy risks triggering an even sharper rise in debt market rates.
However, money alone cannot solve the problem. Japan spent roughly $73 billion on its previous foreign-exchange intervention, while its securities holdings declined by a similar amount. Much of these assets consisted of US Treasuries. Selling them to fund further interventions would not only risk provoking the US but could also push bond yields higher globally, including in Japan.
Japan’s Foreign Exchange Reserves
Source: Bloomberg.
Meanwhile, as speculators remain wary of currency interventions and reluctant to push USD/JPY quotes higher too sharply, policymakers are trying to avoid making matters worse.
There had been hopes that a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East would push oil prices lower and ease inflationary pressures in the United States. Such a scenario would weaken the US dollar by reducing both safe-haven demand and the likelihood of further Fed rate hikes. Instead, the conflict continues to escalate.
The yen remains fundamentally weak, while the government is throwing money away and trying to figure out how to avoid making things even worse with currency interventions. The only way out seems to be choosing the lesser of two evils. According to Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management, the Bank of Japan must aggressively raise the overnight rate to strengthen the yen. Although the futures market indicates a 90% probability of a monetary tightening in June, the company believes that a 25-basis-point increase is insufficient. A 50 or 75-basis-point hike is needed.
The government and speculators are not in an enviable position. Policymakers are wary of the consequences of currency intervention, while traders are reluctant to take on excessive risk and face potential losses.
Weekly USDJPY Trading Plan
If the conflict in the Middle East continues, its impact on the Forex market will allow investors to buy the dip in the USD/JPY, just as they did in May. On the other hand, a US-Iran deal would be a game-changer. In the event of a sharp downward move, the pair can be sold on breakouts of 159.85 and 159.7.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
The GBPJPY pair formed more bearish waves, approaching 212.80 to begin recovering some losses by its rally towards 214.00 as appears in the above image.
Reminding you that the stability of the trading below 214.50 level will increase the chances of facing new bearish pressures, repeating the attempts of reaching 212.80, as breaking it will open the way for resuming the negative attack and reaching 212.00 and 211.45, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will cancel the negative scenario, opening the way for activating the bullish trend again by targeting 215.30 level initially.
The expected trading range for today is between 213.20 and 214.50
