The 48-hour chart shows the pair falling almost continuously from 158.95 before stabilising around 156.25.
Support is located near 155.30, while a recovery through 157.10-157.25 would weaken the immediate bearish signal.
Goldman analyst outlines 140-145 scenario
A Goldman G10 spot trader linked the Yen’s advance to hawkish Bank of Japan comments, carry-trade liquidation and speculation that Japan’s GPIF could increase its domestic bond allocation.
The trader said: “If US data comes in softer, or the Fed isn’t able to hike, and in combination with that, the BOJ come across more hawkish, I think you can see USDJPY continue to grind lower. But it really is all about this shift from the GPIF which really gets us lower into the 140-145 range over the next 6-12 months.”
The 140-145 range is a conditional trader view, not the official Goldman Sachs house forecast.
Friday’s 162,000 payroll increase also challenges one of its central assumptions by reducing the immediate risk of softer US data or a less hawkish Federal Reserve.
Crédit Agricole sees a return to 163
Crédit Agricole takes the opposite near-term view, forecasting USD/JPY at 162 in September and 163 in December.
Its projections then decline gradually to 162 in March 2027, 161 in June, 158 in September and 156 by December 2027.
The bank said: “Record levels of intervention have capped USD/JPY’s rally at 164, but for the JPY to stage a sustainable rally the BoJ needs to accelerate the pace of its rate hikes reducing the currency’s appeal as a carry funder.”
It added: “Elevated oil prices and investor concerns about Japan’s fiscal sustainability still weigh on the JPY.”
A GPIF shift could change that balance.
Crédit Agricole noted: “If Japan’s GPIF allocates more of its AUM to domestic bonds capping super-long end JGB yields, fiscal sustainability concerns would ease.”
The NFP arrives today with the odds of a rate hike from the Fed slipping back to around 50% and correspondingly the dollar sold off again yesterday. That was due to comments from Fed’s Waller who said next week’s CPI could determine whether he votes for a hike or hold. He was thus a lot less hawkish than the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Risk assets rallied as the dollar sold off. All eyes are now on jobs report, as well as crude oil prices today. If oil goes up again heading into the weekend, I’d expect bond yields to follow suit. That, in turn, could hurt risk appetite again. But despite everything that’s been happening, markets once again managed to rebound yesterday after every bearish attempt to drive stock prices lower. Today, though, that could change. In FX, the USD/JPY is clearly the pair to watch following the big moves in the last couple of days.
What to expect from the NFP today?
As for NFP, expectations are for only a +55k print following last month’s surprise -23k reading. Anything stronger, accompanied by a rebound in oil prices could send the dollar higher again. In that case, the USD/JPY could climb back towards the 158.00 area once more. But if the data is weaker than expected, then once again the likes of the AUD and NOK could outperform.
There has been lots of mixed signals in the markets this week, with no clear directional bias. It has made trading all the more difficult for swing traders, though it has undoubtedly been great for short term price action and trading.
Ahead of jobs report, the dollar is consolidating following yesterday’s drop, with many analysts attributing the decline to Waller’s dovish remarks. I’d be careful to not read too much into that. If crude oil prices spike again given the situation between US and Iran ahead of the weekend, the by default the dollar could find renewed support.
USD/JPY forecast: What now after the big yen rally?
The Japanese yen has weakened so far today after it suddenly become the main story in FX markets. Traders are no doubt taking profit ahead of the upcoming US jobs report, after the USD/JPY dropped around 300 pips on Thursday from its session highs, in what was the second day of sharp selling in the pair.
Will we see further weakness today, or will the dollar buying re-emerge? Well, to some degree that depends on how hot or weak the jobs report is going to be. It will also depend on oil prices, as well as any further intervention from Japanese authorities.
So, what exactly drove that sharp move in the yen?
Well, there has been plenty of speculation about intervention by Japanese authorities. On Wednesday, the USD/JPY dropped sharply in a sudden move, from around 159.60 to around 158.20, before recovering towards 159.00 handle. That immediately raised the possibility that the Japanese authorities had stepped into the market again. But there has been no confirmation of intervention, and Thursday’s price action looked quite different. The decline was remarkably smooth, with USD/JPY falling almost every hour since the start of the Asian session, until the European close. That is not normally what you would expect from official intervention, which tends to produce a much sharper and more disorderly move.
Hawkish BoJ expectations and reverse carry trade
Another reason behind the big yen recovery may actually be expectations of a much more hawkish Bank of Japan. Governor Ueda’s recent comments have reinforced expectations of another rate increase this month, while board member Takata has even raised the possibility of a larger move.
Markets are now pricing around 50 basis points of tightening by the end of the year, compared with roughly 20-23 basis points before the late-July intervention episode. There is even some speculation that the BoJ could deliver a 50 basis point hike at its September meeting.
We also have to consider the possibility of a reverse carry trade. As expectations for Japanese rates rise, investors who had borrowed yen to buy higher-yielding assets elsewhere may start unwinding those positions, creating demand for the Japanese currency.
That said, there has been little evidence of this so far.
USD/JPY forecast: technical analysis
From a technical analysis perspective, the USD/JPY is now starting to look a bit more bearish, but we don’t yet have confirmation of a trend reversal.
Source: TradingView.com
That confirmation could potentially come with a sustained break below 155.00 on the USD/JPY. That’s because we have a couple of lows in close proximity of this psychological handle. The August low is at 155.23, while the May low is around 155.03.
Thus, a clean break below 155.00 would create the first major lower low and violate this long term bullish trend of higher highs and higher lows.
If 155.00 handle breaks, then that could open the door to further technical selling towards 154.00 and potentially 153.00.
On the upside, 156.67 is now the first resistance level to watch. Above that, the 158.00 to 158.90 region, which was a prior support zone, could now become a major resistance zone. Interestingly, the 200-day moving average also converges around that area.
A move back above that zone would therefore weaken the bearish outlook.
All eyes on NFP with US CPI, FOMC and BoJ to come
A much weaker than expected labour-market reading could provide the trigger for the USD/JPY to break decisively below that 155.00 handle.
But if the US jobs data comes in stronger than expected, or oil prices spike higher again, or a combination of the two, then the dollar could find renewed support.
And with CPI to come next week, plus both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings are due in the following week, expect increased volatility in the USD/JPY forecast and direction in the near term.
The EURJPY pair surpassed the previously suggested negative targets, facing 180.80 support to begin forming bullish corrective waves, to settle near 181.70 level.
The suggested scenario depends on the strength of the current support in the near trading, where its stability makes us expect renewing the attempts of recovering the previous losses by its rally towards 182.35 reaching 182.80, while facing new bearish pressures and reaching below the current support, which will force it to suffer more losses by reaching 179.90 and 179.45 initially.
The expected trading range for today is between 180.90 and 182.35
The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through and remains capped near mid-1.3500s through the early European session on Friday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled the recovery from a nearly three-week low, touched on Wednesday, as traders keenly await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
The closely watched US monthly employment details will be looked upon for more cues about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future policy path, which, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Heading into the key data risk, some repositioning trade helps the Greenback recover part of the previous day’s heavy losses to over a one-week low and acts as a headwind for the currency pair.
Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties amid renewed US-Iran hostilities and clashes over the Strait of Hormuz turn out to be another factor underpinning the safe-haven USD. However, reduced bets for a September Fed rate hike, along with soft US bond yields, hold back USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and might act as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair, warranting caution before positioning for any meaningful downside.
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair maintains a mild bullish bias above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August rally. Moreover, momentum indicators are constructive, with the Relative Strength Index hovering just above the neutral 50 level and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sitting above the signal line in positive territory.
This hints that the upside pressure is gradually building as the 38.2% Fibo. at 1.3525 turns into nearby support. This is followed by the 200-period SMA around 1.3490 and the 50.0% retracement near 1.3476, with deeper cushions at the 61.8% and 78.6% levels at 1.3428 and 1.3359, respectively. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. at 1.3584, ahead of a more significant hurdle at the prior swing high region around 1.3681.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation.
A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work.
The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower.
NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa.
Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold.
Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components.
At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary.
The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Coffee prices today in the domestic market simultaneously increased by 1,000 VND/kg compared to the previous session. According to giacaphe. com, coffee prices on September 5th averaged 94,800 VND/kg.
In Gia Lai and Dak Lak, coffee prices were recorded at 94,700 VND/kg, an increase of 1,000 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong, coffee prices are still 94,200 VND/kg.
The old Dak Nong area recorded a level of 95,000 VND/kg, reversing to increase by 1,000 VND/kg. This is the highest level in today’s price list.
The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 25,845 VND/USD, down 30 VND/USD.
World coffee prices
In the world market, coffee prices increase and decrease interspersed.
According to Barchart, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract remained unchanged, anchored at the $3,298/ton mark. The November 2026 futures increased by $56/ton, listed at $3,430/ton. The term from January 2027 to May 2027 saw an increase of $55-57/ton, to $3,383 – $3,415/ton.
Similarly, the September 2026 Arabica futures contract closed the session at 324.35 cents/lb. The December 2026 term increased slightly by 0.25 US cents/lb, equivalent to 0.08%, raising the cost price to 295.60 cents/lb. Further forwards increased from 2.35 to 3.40 cents/lb, anchored in the 287.4 – 283.4 cents/lb range.
Assessments and forecasts
Arabica prices on the ICE exchange have fallen to a 5-week low, while Robusta fell to a 2.5-month low. This development reflects market concerns about the possibility of increased coffee supply to the market in the near future.
For Arabica, Brazil is a noteworthy factor as new crop yield prospects are improved. StoneX raises its 2026-2027 crop yield forecast to a record 77.2 million bags, 2.6% higher than the forecast made in March. The return of rainfall at the time coffee trees enter the flowering stage also creates more grounds for expectations of a favorable crop.
For the domestic market, in the short term, domestic coffee prices are likely to recover after a deep decline, however, the increase is not too sudden, continuing to accumulate around the area of 94,000 – 95,000 VND/kg.
The market is expected to maintain a probing state and can only clearly define the new trend when the first assessments of Vietnam’s actual harvest output next season begin to appear.
The GBPJPY pair ended the last bearish scenario by recording the previously suggested targets, reaching 209.95 level to rebound quickly to settle above 210.40 level, to activate the attempts of recovering the losses in the near and medium period.
The stability above the current support will help it to form several bullish waves, to expect targeting 212.40 and 213.25 level, while the price return to settle below the support level and providing a daily close below it will confirm its readiness to form strong bearish waves, to reach 209.10 initially, reaching the next support near 208.25.
The expected trading range for today is between 210.70 and 212.40
2026.09.04 2026.09.04 XAU/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 04.09.26–11.09.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 4,282.50 with a target of 4,900.00–5,610.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 4,282.50. Stop Loss: below 4,215.00, Take Profit: 4,900.00–5,610.00.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 4,282.50 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,003.25–3,720.00. A sell signal: the level of 4,282.50 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 4,350.00, Take Profit: 4,003.25–3,720.00.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 4,282.50 with a target of 4,900.00–5,610.00.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 4,282.50 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,003.25–3,720.00.
Analysis
An ascending third wave of larger degree (3) is presumably developing on the weekly chart. Within it, a descending correction has been completed as the fourth wave of smaller degree 4 of (3). Apparently, the fifth wave 5 of (3) started developing on the daily chart, with wave i of 5 forming as its part. The H4 time frame shows that wave (iii) of i of 5 has formed, a local correction has been completed as wave (iv) of i, and wave (v) of i is currently developing. If the presumption is correct, XAU/USD will continue to rise to 4,900.00–5,610.00. The level of 4,282.50 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,003.25–3,720.00.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
2026.09.04 2026.09.04 GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 04.09.26–11.09.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 1.3470 with a target of 1.3870–1.4140. A buy signal: the price holds above 1.3470. Stop Loss: below 1.3425, Take Profit: 1.3870–1.4140.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 1.3470 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3275–1.3140. A sell signal: the level of 1.3470 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 1.3515, Take Profit: 1.3275–1.3140.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 1.3470 with a target of 1.3870–1.4140.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 1.3470 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3275–1.3140.
Analysis
On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree (A) of B is developing. Within it, wave 1 of (A) has formed, a downward correction has been completed as wave 2 of (A), and wave 3 of (А) is unfolding. Apparently, the third wave iii of 3 is developing on the daily time frame, within which a local correction has formed as wave (ii) of iii. Wave (iii) of iii is developing on the H4 chart, with wave iii of (iii) unfolding as its part. If the presumption is correct, GBP/USD will continue to rise to 1.3870–1.4140. The level of 1.3470 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3275–1.3140.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
Platinum price kept its stability above $1695.00 support in its last trading, confirming the stability of the bullish scenario, recording clear gains by approaching the initial target at $1860.00.
The attempt of the price to settle above the 55 moving average level reinforces the chances of gathering the positive momentum, to expect surpassing $1860.00 level and reaching the extra stations near $1910.00 and $1955.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1785.00 and $1900.00
