The pair ended its corrective bullish rebound after encountering resistance near 0.8605 and stabilizing below it, maintaining its overall movement within the bearish channel shown on the attached chart.
The main indicators have also started providing bearish momentum, supporting the continuation of the negative scenario. The price is currently stabilizing near 0.8550, and we expect it to resume its bearish attack soon, targeting 0.8520 and then 0.8480.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8520 and 0.8575
After a volatile week, the silver price prediction from UBS remains $70 for December and $80 for September 2027.
The Silver price recovered to $64.48 an ounce on Friday, clawing back less than a third of Thursday’s losses.
The 1.64% rebound still left XAG/USD down 2.6% over the week, with the metal needing a sustained recovery to reach UBS’s forecasts.
The bank’s silver price forecast starts at $70 in December 2026, rises to $75 in March and June 2027, then reaches $80 that September.
UBS has retained its earlier September projections, with December’s $70 estimate around 8.6% above Friday’s close and September 2027’s $80 target 24% higher.
View full sizeImage: Gold price in US dollars over the last month
UBS had already anticipated a rate rise before those figures arrived.
The bank said on 10 September: “Our economists’ base case is that the Fed will raise its policy rate by 25bps. Given current market expectations, the hike itself should have a relatively limited impact.”
Its focus was the accompanying message: “More important will be whether markets interpret the decision and the tone of the subsequent press conference as leaning hawkish or dovish.”
In its currency outlook, UBS added: “In our base case, we do not expect a hawkish hike that would provide broad support for the dollar.”
That leaves room, in our view, for silver to recover even if US rates rise, provided the dollar does not strengthen materially.
The Fed’s 15–16 September meeting will test that reading, with most of Thursday’s silver losses still unrecovered.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell on Monday, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week lending support to the ‘Greenback’.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3473, down 0.4% on the day.
The US Dollar (USD) gained ground on Monday as traders moved into the ‘Greenback’ ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday evening.
The prospect of an interest rate hike from the Fed, which markets widely anticipate at this week’s meeting, helped bolster demand for the US currency.
The safe-haven US Dollar also benefited from growing risk aversion.
Tensions in the Middle East intensified as Yemen’s Houthi rebels stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure, unsettling financial markets.
The Pound (GBP) struggled for direction on Monday, with Sterling traders keeping their powder dry ahead of a packed week of UK economic developments.
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With few domestic releases expected to influence trading at the start of the week, focus shifted towards the heavier run of data and events ahead.
Among the key releases on the agenda were the latest UK labour market figures, consumer price index, Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and retail sales data.
With several potential catalysts approaching, GBP traders were reluctant to take sizeable positions.
This left the Pound subdued as the new trading week got underway.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Jobs Figures to Weigh on Pound?
Looking forward, Tuesday’s UK employment figures are set to give Sterling its first major test of the week, as traders assess what the data could reveal about the strength of the labour market.
UK unemployment is forecast to edge higher from 4.9% to 5% in the three months to July, while wage growth including bonuses is expected to have slowed over the same period.
Signs of a weakening jobs market could put further pressure on the Pound, particularly with the Bank of England’s interest rate decision due later in the week.
Across the Atlantic, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet on Tuesday.
This could leave USD more exposed to shifts in risk appetite, with a risk-off environment potentially providing support for the ‘Greenback’.
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Coffee prices today in the domestic market are trending sideways. According to giacaphe. com, coffee prices on September 14th averaged at 95. 200 VND/kg, anchored in the price range of 94. 700-95. 300 VND/kg.
In Gia Lai and Dak Lak, coffee prices are recorded at 95,200 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong, the listed coffee price is at 94,700 VND/kg.
The old Dak Nong area recorded a level of 95. 300 VND/kg.
The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank is recorded at 25,700 VND/USD.
World coffee prices
In the world market, coffee prices remained unchanged for all terms.
According to Barchart, the September 2026 Robusta contract is anchored at $3,495/ton. In the same direction, the November 2026 term is listed at $3,525/ton. The term from January 2027 to May 2027 is listed in the $3,482 – $3,508/ton price range.
Meanwhile, the September 2026 Arabica futures contract held at 313.65 cents/lb. The December 2026 futures were offered to the market at 285.70 cents/lb. Further forwards were anchored in the 272.20 – 277.20 cents/lb range.
Assessments and forecasts
Traders are planning to bring a large amount of Arabica coffee from Brazil – the world’s largest coffee producer – to certified warehouses of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), where inventories have fallen to their lowest level in 26 years, thereby pushing coffee prices up.
Arabica coffee contracts operated by ICE Futures U.S., acting as the global reference price for the coffee market, hit a 6-month high in July, exceeding 3.5 USD/pound. Prices remain around this level despite market forecasts that supply will be significantly surplus in the 2026/27 crop year.
Industry experts believe that the main reason why coffee prices remain high, currently around 3 USD/pound, is that Arabica coffee inventories on the ICE exchange are low. About 70% of these inventories are stored in Antwerp, Belgium.
The amount of coffee from Brazil brought to ICE warehouses is likely to cause certified inventory to increase more than 2 times. This is an indicator that has a major impact on coffee prices, because it clearly reflects the surplus of coffee ready to be delivered on the exchange.
Many investment funds use algorithms programmed to automatically sell when stocks on the exchange increase and buy when stocks decrease.
Brent oil moved above the $107.00 level as reports indicated that Saudi East-West pipeline will not work for several weeks after an attack. I’d note that oil prices pulled back from session highs after President Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine agreed not to attack energy facilities. Russia and Ukraine have not confirmed the existence of such a deal.
In case U.S. Dollar Index stays above the support level at 99.25 – 99.40, it will move towards the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00. On the support side, a successful test of the support at 99.25 – 99.40 will open the way to the test of the next support, which is located in the 98.60 – 98.75 range.
1. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline Has Been Shut
One of the most important developments for the oil market is the temporary shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline.
The pipeline normally provides Saudi Arabia with an alternative route to export crude through the Red Sea, reducing its dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.
Following attacks, Saudi Arabia temporarily shut the pipeline while emergency teams assessed the damage. Reuters reported that the outage could threaten as much as 4% of global oil supply if it persists.
The importance of the pipeline has increased because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has already been severely disrupted.
According to Reuters, Saudi crude production had fallen to around 6.2 million barrels per day in August, compared with 10.9 million barrels per day in February.
That leaves the market with less room to absorb another supply shock.
2. Strait of Hormuz Risks Remain
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most important variables for the oil market.
Shipping activity through the strait has fallen significantly, while a vessel was reportedly hit by a projectile during the weekend. Reuters reported that only four outbound and 10 inbound vessels were recorded over the weekend, compared with a recent 10-day average of around 14 daily transits.
Any further reduction in tanker traffic could increase the geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices.
For WTI traders, this means that headlines surrounding the Gulf can produce significant intraday volatility.
3. Iran-Gulf Talks Have Been Postponed
The market had been hoping that diplomatic discussions could provide a path towards reopening safer shipping routes.
However, Oman’s foreign minister confirmed that a planned meeting between Iran and Gulf countries had been postponed.
That reduces the probability of an immediate de-escalation and leaves the oil market focused on physical supply rather than diplomatic progress.
4. Houthi Activity Is Increasing Supply Risks
The risk is no longer limited to the Strait of Hormuz.
Houthi forces have intensified their activities around the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, creating another obstacle for oil transportation.
Reuters reported that the Houthi advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coastline is increasing pressure on Saudi oil exports and global shipping routes.
This creates a dangerous scenario for the oil market: multiple export routes are facing simultaneous geopolitical risks.
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) held close to 1.1600 last week despite another surge in US Treasury yields, with markets now focused squarely on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and this week’s crucial policy decision.
A September rate hike is increasingly expected, but the bigger question for the Dollar is whether the Fed can ultimately deliver the tightening cycle already priced into markets.
EUR/USD Forecasts: Big Call for Feds Warsh
SEB expects the dollar to hold steady in the short term and potentially advance slightly over the remainder of 2026, but the bank expects the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will strengthen to 1.23 by the end of 2027.
Goldman Sachs, however, has a 12-month EUR/USD forecast of 1.12.
The main feature during the week was a slide in US Treasuries with the 10-year yield jumping to near 5.00% and the highest level for over three years. Higher energy prices contributed to the fears with Brent hitting 4-month highs above $100 p/b.
Despite this volatility, EUR/USD was held in relatively tight ranges and settled close to 1.16.
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The headline US inflation rate held at 3.4% for August with the core rate edging lower to 2.4% from 2.5% and in line with consensus forecasts.
Markets are now pricing in close to a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at this week’s meeting.
ING commented; “It is a close call, but after Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, we now see a 25bp Fed hike to 4.00% on 16 September.”
Markets also consider that the most likely outcome is three rate increases by March 2027.
According to SEB; “Rates have continued to rise during the summer and a sticky inflation scenario for the Fed now looks reflected in pricing. A question is if the Fed will be able to meet expectations – it is not obvious to us. Meanwhile Scott Bessent has begun a more activist approach via Yen intervention and increasing treasury buybacks, both having a negative Dollar impact.”
It added; “This is happening with a backdrop where the global positioning in the Dollar has only increased (via lower FX hedge ratios). Thus, the outlook would seem to be skewed towards Dollar weakness, triggered by an eventual global disinflation impulse (Hormuz reopening) – this is looking like a story for 2027 though.”
SEB did note Euro-Zone reservations; “French budget/election is a risk, but bias is that Euro can climb this wall of worry by avoiding the most negative market outcome.”
The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points at the latest policy meeting with the deposit rate hiked to 2.50%. There were also hints that a further increase is possible before year-end.
Euro-Zone energy prices continued to increase with natural gas prices at fresh 3-year highs.
Goldman Sachs commented; “On net, we see moderate risks of energy-driven EUR under-performance ahead.”
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2026.09.14 2026.09.14 Short-Term Analysis for Oil, Gold, and EURUSD for 14.09.2026
Alex Rodionovhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-rodionov/
Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for US Crude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I suggest entry signals for intraday traders.
Gold continues to trade under selling pressure.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
USCrude: Oil has reached the first bullish target set for trades opened at support A of 96.45–96.01.
EURUSD: The euro is piercing support B of 1.1585–1.1572.
Oil Price Forecast for Today: USCrude Analysis
The oil price is maintaining a short-term uptrend. On Friday, the asset tested support A at 96.45–96.01. As a result, bulls managed to hold this zone. Today, the price opened with a gap and reached the first bullish target of 98.40.
Consequently, some of the remaining long trades can be shifted to the breakeven point and held until the second target of 100.75 is reached. If oil breaks below support A, the correction will extend toward support B of 94.27–93.61.
USCrude Trading Ideas for Today:
Hold part of the long trades opened at support A of 96.45–96.01. TakeProfit: 98.40, 100.75. StopLoss: at breakeven.
Gold Forecast for Today: XAUUSD Analysis
Gold remains under selling pressure. Last week, the price reached the first bearish target of 4,367. The second target is at 4,282. This level lies within the Gold Zone of 4,286–4,276. Therefore, if the price breaks below this zone, it may slide further to the Target Zone 2 of 4,158–4,135.
XAUUSD Trading Ideas for Today:
Hold part of the short trades opened at resistance B of 4,451–4,436. TakeProfit: 4,282. StopLoss: at breakeven.
Euro/Dollar Forecast for Today: EURUSD Analysis
After reaching the first bullish target set for trades opened at support B of 1.1585–1.1572, the euro price reversed lower. Today, it is attempting to break below support B. If it settles below this zone, the trend will turn bearish. In that case, consider short trades tomorrow, targeting the lower Target Zone of 1.1459–1.1434.
If the euro price returns to support B and forms a buy pattern, consider long trades, with the first target at 1.1642 and the second one at the August 21 high of 1.1711.
EURUSD Trading Ideas for Today:
Watch the market.
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Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
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The GBPJPY pair provided more negative closes by moving away from 210.40 barrier, forming bearish waves by its stability below 208.10 level, announcing its readiness to resume the previously suggested negative trend.
Gathering extra negative momentum makes us expect reaching 206.70 level, where surpassing it will open the way for targeting more negative stations, to reach 205.90 and 205.10.
The expected trading range for today is between 206.70 and 208.70
But as things stand right now, it looks like the natural gas market is stuck between $3 on the top and somewhere right around $2.80 on the bottom. The 50-day EMA is flat, and the 200-day EMA sits above the $3 level, but it is drifting lower.
Ultimately, this, at least from what I can tell, still looks very range-bound. As a result, I have to play it that way. This time of year, we start to shift from bearish seasonality to neutral, and this is an interesting time of year because longer-term traders quite often will be putting their positions on.
Ultimately, we are going to need to see a significant drawdown in storage to make things change. We have not really seen that yet, and at last count, we were still running at about 5% above the five-year average as far as storage is concerned. So, there are still some bearish headwinds, but we are starting to think about winter.
