The first market I’m watching, of course, will be the two-year yield. That’s been the game for a while. It is rising slightly during the day. Although let’s keep in mind, today is Columbus Day, so certain bank traders won’t be at work. In Canada, we have Thanksgiving, so North America is going to be pretty thin at this juncture.
Natural gas gapped lower to kick off the trading session and then continued to fall toward the 200-day EMA. That being said, keep in mind that Monday is a bank holiday in the United States and Canada, so we’ll have to wait and see whether or not that makes a difference with liquidity. A huge portion of natural gas trading is done out of North America. It is a North American contract, and therefore this is important.
Ultimately, not a lot has changed. We are still stuck between the $3 and $3.30 levels. This is a market that is starting to roll over into colder temperatures, and that should help demand, therefore increasing price. But we are at that time of year in the United States where it might get a little cold at night, but it is warm enough during the day that you are not really heating your home.
GBPJPY maintained its bullish corrective trajectory through this morning’s trading session, posting several positive closes above the 208.10 level. The pair responded to stochastic’s positive signals and is currently fluctuating near 209.60.
The price is now expected to resume its corrective bullish attempts, potentially advancing toward the resistance barrier near 210.40 in the near term. If positive factors persist, the pair may successfully test the resistance level near 211.25, which in turn represents a key threshold for confirming the broader trend in upcoming trading sessions.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.90 and 210.40
Trend forecast: Bullish
Platinum completed its latest bullish corrective rebound after touching the $1705.00 level, before moving into sideways trading in an attempt to confirm the continuation of its current bearish trend, with $1740.00 now acting as an additional resistance barrier.
The conflicting signals from the main technical indicators may push the price into further sideways trading. We will therefore continue to wait for the price to gather the necessary negative momentum to renew its bearish attempts, gradually moving toward $1650.00 and $1605.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1740.00 and $1740.00
Trend forecast: Bearish
EURJPY remains on a bearish path, with the 179.45 level currently acting as an additional resistance barrier. However, continued conflicting signals from the main technical indicators have pushed the pair into some sideways trading, with the price stabilizing near 177.40.
We will continue to wait for the price to gather additional negative momentum, which could enable it to resume its bearish attempts, initially targeting 176.50 before exerting further pressure on the first additional support level at 175.75.
The expected trading range for today is between 176.50 and 178.20
Trend forecast: Bearish
Oil prices fell on Monday as expectations of additional Russian diesel supplies and a possible halt to attacks on energy facilities in the Russia-Ukraine conflict eased some concerns over supply. However, continued tensions in the Middle East kept Brent crude above $100 a barrel.Brent crude futures fell $1.54, or 1.47%, to $103.18 a barrel by 7.24 am IST. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined by the same amount, or 1.68%, to $90.31 a barrel.ICE gasoil futures, a benchmark for diesel, fell 3% to $1,436 per barrel after US President Donald Trump said Russia would supply additional diesel to US and global markets.Earlier on Friday, Trump said that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel, equivalent to around 2.25 million barrels.He added that another 500,000 tonnes would be supplied in November, followed by a further 1 million tonnes “immediately thereafter”.Global daily diesel consumption is forecast to be close to 29 million barrels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).Trump also announced on Sunday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to halt attacks on each other’s energy facilities. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was still waiting for details of the proposed energy ceasefire.The announcements eased some immediate concerns over supply, said Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, Reuters reported.“Questions remain over the validity and longevity of any such ceasefire, and without clearer evidence that it will actually hold, the extent of the pullback is likely to stay limited,” he added.Despite the easing of some supply concerns, the conflict in the Middle East continued to support oil prices. The Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh’s international airport that reportedly killed 13 people and injured more than 300.Saudi authorities also reported injuries in another attack on the airport on Sunday.Trump said on Saturday that the US was considering joining Saudi strikes against the Houthis. The conflict has spilled over from the wider war involving Iran, launched by the US and Israel in February.Attacks on tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz have also increased this month, threatening to disrupt the recovery in Middle Eastern crude exports seen in September.Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast for December to $90 a barrel from $85, according to a note by analysts led by Daan Struyven.“We maintain our base case that continued adaptation of Mideast supply will eventually reduce crude oil prices, while potential renewed escalation still poses significant net upside risk,” the analysts said, estimating a risk premium of just over $20 a barrel.“We forecast WTI prices, which are unusually low vs Brent because of high US-Europe shipping costs, to average $81 in December 2026 and $73 in 2027,” they added.Oil prices ended the previous week with mixed movements. Brent futures for December delivery rose $2.47, or 2.41%, to $104.72 a barrel, while WTI gained 1% to settle at $91.85 a barrel.With Brent crude trading above $100 a barrel, geopolitical developments are likely to remain a key driver of prices. Progress in US-Iran negotiations could ease pressure, but the risk of renewed attacks, shipping disruptions and prolonged supply constraints is expected to keep volatility elevated.
That being said, this is a temporary situation as opposed to some of the more prolonged shut-ins that we have seen in the Middle East. The reality is that undamaged facilities can restart after they are inspected and standard safety checks are done, while damaged installations could take longer.
This sets up a situation where the weekend could be very important because we need to know how much damage has been done to those rigs in the Gulf. That is probably a story that will develop Saturday evening, Sunday morning, possibly Monday.
The storm arrives against a supportive inventory backdrop. The EIA’s October 7 petroleum report showed commercial crude stocks falling 3.2 million barrels to 424.1 million in the week ending October 2. Crude exports have reached 4.765 million barrels per day, while refinery inputs have increased to 16.48 million. This all predates the storm, so this could look like a wild release next week.
Lost offshore production will reduce supply, potentially supporting WTI prices. The fact that the technical analysis lines up with that is something that is not lost on me. This is not to say that crude oil has to go straight up in the air, but clearly a lot of things are lining up at the same time to be supportive.
Brent is up to $103.45. It has recovered very nicely off the $98.71 level. As it stands above both the MAs and in the upper channel it keeps the broad picture positive. However, $103.89 remains the key breakout level and buyers still need a clear break above it to strengthen the uptrend.
$103.89 is the first resistance. A clear break above this would target $106.03 and then $109.79. For support, $102.78 is the first. Under this, $98.71, $95.64, and $93.15 come into play.
RSI has improved recently and is above the 50 level. This means the momentum is positive, but is not overextended. With Brent above $102.78, I like longs. A close above $103.89 further strengthens the uptrend and targets the $106.03 area. A move through $98.71 invalidates the current pattern.
This short-term bullish behavior may or may not lead to further gains, but the recovery and subsequent hold above a key long-term dynamic support line keep the door open to further upside. The moving average was recently reclaimed for a second time, strengthening its significance as a technical pivot. Further consolidation above the 200-day moving average, currently near $3.11, would preserve a bullish outlook. If this support fails, the rising 20-day moving average, now near $3.04, becomes the next key support test, alongside the earlier swing high of $3.026.
There are three major tailwinds pushing copper upwards: tariffs, supply disruptions, and rising demand for copper in emerging technologies.
Refined copper cathode, the raw metal itself, is not, as of the time of writing, subject to a Section 232 tariff. It was exempted when the copper tariffs took effect on August 1 2025 and remains exempt today. Copper ores, concentrates, anodes and scrap are also outside the tariff.
What is tariffed is semi-finished and derivative products. Proclamation 11021 of 2 April 2026, effective 6 April, applied the duty to the full customs value of a covered article rather than only to its declared metal content, and set the tiered rate structure below at the same time.
The resulting structure, in force since 6 April 2026:
These tariffs are not applied universally. For example, the reduced UK rates of 25 per cent (Annex I-A) and 15 per cent (Annex I-B) are written to cover UK-origin aluminium and steel content; the proclamation does not extend them to copper content. And the threshold to qualify as “made entirely” from American metal fell from 95 per cent to 85 per cent by weight on June 8, which makes the 10 per cent rate easier to claim.
Goods listed as articles or derivatives of more than one covered metal are charged once, at the rate for the annex they appear in, rather than stacked per metal. Since July 30 2026, importers of certain copper articles must report primary country of smelt and country of cast in ACE.
However, markets are now being repriced according to the threat of future tariffs, as much as they are according to the impact of existing tariffs. The July 2025 proclamation set out a contemplated expansion, which envisioned a phased universal duty on refined copper of 15 per cent from January 2027, rising to 30 per cent from January 2028.
It also contemplated a 25 per cent domestic sales requirement for copper input materials from 2027, and a 25 per cent domestic sales requirement plus export licensing for high-quality copper scrap. None of that is in force as of the time of writing.
To inform the decision, the Commerce Secretary was directed to deliver an update on US copper markets by 30 June 2026. That deadline was set by presidential proclamation, not by statute, and that deadline has now passed without any report being made public. As of late August, the White House has still not made a ruling, though markets appear to be bracing for tougher tariffs ahead.
In the meantime, it makes sense for firms to hold copper inside US customs territory rather than risk paying duty later. American refined copper imports reached 885,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, up 3 per cent year on year. At that run rate, the year will match or exceed 2025’s record 1.64 million tonnes. July alone topped 200,000 tonnes, the strongest month since records began in 2014.
Consultancy Project Blue puts first-half 2026 production losses at roughly 338,000 tonnes across Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile. Collectively, these countries account for a significant amount of global copper production, and disruptions to their mines will be felt keenly in the markets.
The world’s second-largest copper mine is still recovering from the September 2025 mudslide that prompted Freeport-McMoRan to declare force majeure. S&P Global has it targeting 65 per cent of capacity by the end of 2026, with full production pushed back to 2027.
Ivanhoe Mines cut 2026 guidance to 290,000–310,000 tonnes from 380,000–420,000 in April, a 22.5 per cent reduction. In August, partner Zijin Mining warned that flooding could cut its own attributable share by as much as 57,000 tonnes this year, putting its 1.2 million tonne group target under pressure.
Cochilco expects national output of 5.27 million tonnes in 2026, down 2.6 per cent on the year, citing weak first-half performance at Codelco, Escondida and Spence. Codelco’s average ore grade has fallen from 1.02 per cent in 2022 to 0.66 per cent in 2025.
Goldman Sachs cut its global mine supply estimate by 350,000 tonnes on Grasberg and Kamoa alone, noting neither is expected back at full capacity before 2028, although by some estimates, full supply at Grasberg could be returned to as soon as 2027.
The direct impact is small; the DRC shipped 696,725 tonnes of cathode against just 53,926 tonnes of concentrate in the first quarter, because it already refines most of its copper domestically. However, the violent reaction in the market reveals just how jumpy it has become.
A newer vulnerability has emerged in sulphur and sulphuric acid, essential to leaching and SX-EW processing. Middle East shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been squeezed, and China halted acid exports from May 2026. BMI flags this as a critical and under-priced constraint.
Traditionally, the construction industry was the premier source of copper demand, and China’s construction boom had been a significant driver. But with China’s property market stalling, demand-side pressure is being relieved somewhat.
Nevertheless, copper continues to rise because of rising demand for copper in grid infrastructure, electrification and emerging technologies. Chinese power grid capital expenditure rose 37 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2026. J.P. Morgan estimates copper demand from new data centre installations at around 475,000 tonnes in 2026 alone.
On the electrification side, the International Energy Agency puts a battery electric vehicle at roughly 53.2kg of copper against 22.3kg for a conventional car. Offshore wind uses about 8,000kg per megawatt, against 1,150kg for a coal-fired plant.
