– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Hits 20-Day High as USD Rally Pauses

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) climbed to a 20-day high above 1.3400 as calm market conditions and subdued volatility encouraged demand for higher-yielding currencies.

With the Dollar consolidating after its recent rally and Sterling continuing to benefit from easing UK political uncertainty, investors have become more willing to rebuild long Pound positions.

GBP/USD Forecasts: 20-Day High

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate posted a 20-day high fractionally above the 1.34 level before trading around 1.3385.

Overall risk appetite held steady while overall volatility remained low. In this environment, the relatively high yields offered by the Dollar and Pound provided net support to both currencies.

UOB noted strong resistance close just above 1.34 and commented; “A break above this major resistance is not ruled out, but based on the prevailing momentum, the next resistance at 1.3445 is likely out of reach. To sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above 1.3350.”

According to Scotiabank; “momentum appears to be pushing further into bullish territory.”

It added; “The daily chart offers dense resistance at several levels (1.3420, 1.3450. 1.3500, 1.3520) ahead of 1.3600.”

After hitting 13-month highs near 101.50 last week, the dollar index was steady around 100.60.

Minutes from June’s Federal Reserve policy meeting will be released on Wednesday. Interest rates were held at 3.75% with relatively hawkish comments from new Chair Warsh.

ING commented; “markets probably require a convincing narrative to short the high-yielding dollar in such a favourable environment for carry. Unless the minutes surprise on the dovish side (we don’t think so), that narrative should not emerge this week, and DXY can stay closer to 101.0 than 100.0.”

Scotiabank is less convinced over the dollar outlook; “we continue to think that near-term risks are tilted towards a little more USD weakness overall; we think the markets are mispricing Fed tightening risks—certainly over the next few months—and we believe dollar index gains may be showing signs of peaking on the charts which may see the index put a little more pressure on support around the 100.5 point.”

DBS Bank noted; “the US dollar has strengthened in response to a hawkish market interpretation of the first US Fed meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh in June.”

It added; “That said, the USD’s appeal continues to be challenged by investor concerns over US exceptionalism, long-term fiscal sustainability, and ongoing policy uncertainties.”

Domestically, assuming Burnham is confirmed as new Prime Minister, markets will be looking closely at the appointment of the next Chancellor and overall direction of fiscal policy.

According to Scotiabank; “In terms of fiscal risks, the UK’s OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) has underscored the challenges facing the UK and specifically the cost (£100bn) of stabilizing the national debt around current levels (95% of GDP).”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Goldman Sachs has cut its Euro to Dollar exchange rate forecasts, warning that the earlier case for sustained EUR/USD upside has weakened.

The bank now sees EUR/USD at 1.14 in three months, before falling to 1.12 on both a six- and twelve-month view. That marks a clear downgrade from the previous profile, which had looked for gains to 1.18 and 1.20.

Goldman says the FX market has shifted into a “divided Dollar environment”, with the US currency no longer expected to weaken broadly across the board.

The bank says it is now “unlikely to return to broad-based, sustained Dollar depreciation” in the near term, particularly as US asset demand remains resilient and AI-related investment spending continues to support the US growth outlook.

The report also flags a more balanced rates backdrop. Goldman still expects some narrowing in US rate differentials, but not enough to justify the previous EUR/USD upside path.

The bank adds that Dollar diversification concerns have “quieted”, while the US currency remains better supported against low-yielding currencies than against higher-carry alternatives.

For EUR/USD, the revised forecast sends a clear signal: the Euro may still find periods of support, but Goldman no longer sees the conditions for a sustained break higher.

Instead, the bank’s new 1.12 target suggests the Dollar is likely to retain more support than previously expected, especially if US data avoids a sharper downturn and rate-market expectations remain contained.

Euro Prices: This Week

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		+0.07%	-0.77%	+0.11%	-0.05%	-0.68%	-0.43%	+0.09%
EUR	-0.07%		-0.84%	+0.04%	-0.13%	-0.75%	-0.50%	+0.01%
GBP	+0.77%	+0.85%		+0.89%	+0.72%	+0.09%	+0.34%	+0.86%
JPY	-0.11%	-0.04%	-0.88%		-0.16%	-0.78%	-0.54%	-0.02%
CAD	+0.05%	+0.13%	-0.72%	+0.16%		-0.62%	-0.38%	+0.14%
AUD	+0.68%	+0.76%	-0.09%	+0.79%	+0.63%		+0.25%	+0.77%
NZD	+0.43%	+0.50%	-0.34%	+0.54%	+0.38%	-0.25%		+0.52%
CHF	-0.09%	-0.01%	-0.86%	+0.02%	-0.14%	-0.76%	-0.52%

The FX heat map compares how Euro (EUR) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Pound Sterling, where Euro recorded its sharpest decline. Data comparing prices today (07/07/2026 20:38 UTC) and daily close on 30/06/2026.

To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.

Copper price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the contradiction of the main indicators against holding below $6.3000 barrier, the price needs to settle below $5.9500 level, reinforcing the chances of targeting the corrective stations, which might begin at $5.8200 and $5.7100.

Surpassing the barrier will cancel the corrective scenario, to open the way for recording clear gains by its rally towards $5.4300 initially, to attempt to surpass $6.5200, to confirm the continuation of the positivity in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.9500 and $6.2600

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


James Fuller

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Slips as Middle East Tensions Lift the US Dollar

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate weakened on Tuesday, slipping back after striking a near three-week high overnight, as a deterioration in risk appetite pressured the pairing.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3371, down from an overnight peak of $1.3398.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Tuesday, recouping part of Monday evening’s losses, as renewed Middle East tensions pushed investors towards safer assets.

Market sentiment weakened after two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly hit by projectiles overnight, including a Qatari LNG tanker.

Washington has accused Iran of carrying out the strikes, with the US expected to respond by targeting Iranian sites.

The latest flare-up in geopolitical risk prompted a more defensive mood across global markets, lifting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.

The Pound (GBP) held up relatively well on Tuesday, with Sterling avoiding sharper losses despite a quiet UK data calendar.

GBP has found support in recent sessions as domestic political uncertainty continues to ease. Following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, several potential challengers have reportedly backed frontrunner Andy Burnham.

Markets have responded positively to the prospect of a relatively orderly handover, with months of speculation over Starmer’s position and fears of a damaging leadership contest now seemingly fading. Burnham is widely expected to become Prime Minister without a contest, while keeping the government’s existing fiscal rules in place.

This helped the Pound resist steeper losses against the US Dollar, even as a risk-averse market mood weighed on wider sentiment.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Could Fed Minutes Lift the US Dollar?

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes are due out on Wednesday evening and could drive movement in the US Dollar. If the minutes point to support among policymakers for further interest rate rises, the ‘Greenback’ may strengthen.

Market risk sentiment could also shape the GBP/USD exchange rate. Any further escalation in the Middle East may dampen appetite for risk, potentially boosting the safe-haven US Dollar while weighing on the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound.

Meanwhile, Sterling may continue to draw some support from the fading political risk premium that had previously weighed on GBP. However, with Labour leadership nominations set to open on Thursday, the Pound could struggle to find much upside.

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EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bearish in the medium term, with temporary corrective recovery attempts.

• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1415 – 1.1380 – 1.1300

• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1480 – 1.1530 – 1.1600

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy scenario (with corrective bounce): from the support level of 1.1370, targeting 1.1500, with a stop loss activated below 1.1320.

• Sell scenario (with the main trend): from the resistance level of 1.1500, targeting 1.1400, with a stop-loss order placed above 1.1560.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

The EUR/USD pair continues to move under selling pressure amid the ongoing dominance of the bearish trend on the technical front, despite the limited recovery attempts witnessed during recent sessions.

Technical indicators suggest that any current rallies are still classified as corrective movements, unless the pair manages to break through key resistance levels and regain upward momentum. Across the best trading platforms, the Euro-Dollar rate settled around the 1.1441 level at the time of writing this analysis.

According to the general technical outlook, the broader trend for the EUR/USD pair still leans downward over the medium and long term. Meanwhile, the support level of 1.1325, which is the low recorded during June, remains the most prominent support level monitored by traders.

The performance of the EUR/USD price at the beginning of the trading week indicates continuing selling pressures as prices approach influential technical resistance levels. The daily timeframe chart shows that the 21-day Moving Average (MA) continues to act as strong dynamic resistance—a level that has successfully capped upward attempts since mid-May, reinforcing the sellers’ continued control over market price action.

As long as the price settles below the 21-day Moving Average, the most likely scenario remains a resumption of the decline to retest the June low at 1.1325, which represents the most prominent technical target during July.

Conversely, a successful breakout and daily close above the 21-day Moving Average by the currency pair could provide the first signal of fading bearish momentum. However, this development would not be enough to change the general trend as long as the price moves below the 100-day Moving Average and the downward trendline extending from the January peaks.

Therefore, any upward waves at the current time remain merely corrective rebounds rather than the start of a new uptrend.

Regarding momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving below 50, reflecting continued negative momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory despite the weakening downward momentum. This suggests the possibility of limited bounces before the main trend resumes.

According to fundamental analysis, Euro trading via trusted brokerage platforms received limited support after the Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the Eurozone improved during July. It is rising from -13.4 to -3.1 to record its third consecutive monthly improvement. Additionally, the Current Situation Assessment Index improved from -20.0 to -14.8, while the Future Expectations Index jumped from -6.5 to 9.3, returning to positive territory for the first time in several months, reflecting growing optimism regarding the European economy.

Despite the positive nature of these figures, their impact on the Euro remained limited, as they did not lead to a tangible rise in European bond yields.

On the monetary policy front in the Eurozone, financial markets indicate a decline in the likelihood of the European Central Bank taking further steps to tighten monetary policy during the remainder of 2026, especially after the release of inflation data that fell short of expectations.

The easing of concerns related to inflationary pressures stemming from geopolitical tensions has also contributed to a reduction in market bets on any further interest rate hikes. This is reflected in the decline in short-term European bond yields, a factor that is not usually favorable for the euro.

According to currency market trading, the performance of the US dollar remains the most influential factor in the EUR/USD pair’s movement during the current period. The recent US jobs report marked a significant turning point, as it came in weaker than market expectations, prompting investors to reduce their bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.

Overall, the outlook remains bearish as long as the currency pair remains below the 21-day moving average and the main downtrend line. Support at 1.1325 remains the nearest target if selling pressure continues, while buyers need a clear break above key technical resistance levels to change the current picture and pave the way for a more sustainable recovery.

Trading Advice:

The EUR/USD pair may remain trapped within its current sideways range until major economic catalysts emerge. Regardless of your investment conviction to buy or sell, adherence to strict risk management and position sizing is your only key to staying in the market.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.