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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Bullish Momentum Persists as Technicals Signal Further Gains

Gold prices are extending their upward trajectory, with XAU/USD holding near recent highs as of mid-February 2026, driven by a combination of technical momentum, persistent safe-haven demand, and expectations of central bank policy shifts. The precious metal has climbed over 8% since the start of the year, buoyed by geopolitical uncertainties and a softer U.S. dollar, and market analysts see further upside potential if key resistance levels are breached.

What’s Driving the Gold Rally?

The current bullish run in gold is underpinned by several macro factors. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s signals of a potential pause in rate hikes have weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive to international buyers. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth continue to fuel safe-haven inflows into the yellow metal. Central bank buying, particularly from emerging markets, remains a structural support, with official sector purchases in 2025 reaching a two-decade high.

From a technical perspective, XAU/USD has broken above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a classic bullish crossover that often attracts momentum traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 65, indicating strong upward momentum without being overbought, leaving room for further gains before a potential pullback.

Key Levels to Watch

Immediate resistance is seen at the psychological $2,700 mark, followed by the all-time high near $2,750. A decisive close above these levels could open the path toward $2,800. On the downside, support is established at $2,620, the 20-day moving average, and a break below that could signal a short-term correction. Traders are also monitoring the $2,580 level, which aligns with a Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally.

Volume analysis shows increasing participation in the rally, with open interest in gold futures rising by 5% over the past week, suggesting that new money is entering the market rather than just short covering.

Why This Matters for Investors

For investors, the sustained bullish trend in gold offers a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. With real yields still negative in several major economies, gold’s opportunity cost remains low, making it an attractive asset in diversified portfolios. However, a sudden shift in Fed policy or a resolution of geopolitical tensions could trigger profit-taking, so risk management is crucial.

Conclusion

Gold’s bullish run appears poised to continue, supported by solid technicals and macro tailwinds. While short-term corrections are possible, the overall trend remains upward. Investors should watch key resistance levels and central bank communications for cues on the next leg of the move.

FAQs

Q1: Is gold a good investment in 2026?
Gold remains a viable hedge against inflation and market volatility, especially with central banks diversifying reserves. However, it’s essential to consider your risk tolerance and portfolio goals.

Q2: What is the forecast for XAU/USD this year?
Analysts are cautiously bullish, with targets ranging from $2,700 to $2,800 if current support levels hold. A break below $2,580 could signal a reversal.

Q3: How does the U.S. dollar affect gold prices?
Gold and the dollar typically move inversely. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting demand and prices.

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What Would Change Bearish Outlook?

Price behavior suggests a continuation of the bearish trend until there is evidence to the contrary. That wouldn’t occur unless there was a sustained reclaim of the 50-day moving average. Since that average may be at or near Monday’s high before an upside breakout is attempted, it may have greater significance. The breakout of consolidation, along with the reclaim of a key moving average, would suggest that an advance from there may have greater success than if that 50-day moving average was approached.

Above the 50-day moving average is a lower swing high of $2.98, a key resistance area from structure. It is supported as resistance by a higher swing low from May. That wouldn’t change the overall bearish technical outlook represented in the larger bearish structure. In that case, the current developing symmetrical triangle pattern could be interpreted as a bearish pennant, could add to momentum if a breakdown below last week’s low of $2.69 occurs.

The pair ended its latest bullish surge after hitting 217.10, which forced it to form some sideways trading as it gathers additional positive momentum. The price is currently fluctuating around 216.70, maintaining its positive stability above the initial support at 216.35.

The above keeps our bullish bias intact, with the pair potentially targeting 217.35 and 217.85, respectively. However, slipping below 216.35 and recording a negative close would activate the corrective scenario, potentially pushing the price toward 215.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 216.30 and 217.50

Trend forecast: Bullish

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market increased slightly compared to the previous session. According to giacaphe. com, the average coffee price on August 24 was 96,600 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices were recorded at 96,500 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg compared to the previous session.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices reached 96,000 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg. This is the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

In Gia Lai, coffee prices are at 96,500 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg.

The old Dak Nong area recorded a level of 96,800 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg. This is the highest level in today’s price list.

Despite increasing again, the price level is still significantly lower than the 98,000-99,000 VND/kg area recorded last week.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank is recorded at 25,900 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

In the world market, coffee prices decreased in the most recent session.

According to Barchart, the December 2026 Arabica futures contract closed the last session of the week down 6.65 US cents/lb, equivalent to 2.02%. In the same session, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 104 USD/ton, equivalent to 2.81%.

Coffee prices fell as the market expects drier weather in Brazil to help accelerate harvest progress. Robusta alone is also under pressure from increased inventory, as Robusta inventory certified on ICE reached 4,732 lots, the highest level in 8.75 months.

Coffee price assessment

Domestic coffee prices increased slightly after adjustment sessions, but the upward momentum is still quite thin. The sharp decrease in world Robusta in the most recent session may cause the domestic market to continue to be cautious in the coming sessions.

For Vietnam, Robusta London is still a more important reference because this is the main coffee group. When Robusta decreases by nearly 3%, domestic purchasing prices are unlikely to have a strong upward momentum if there is no additional purchasing power from export businesses or supporting factors from actual supply.

From an export perspective, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, in July, Vietnam exported about 147,600 tons of coffee, worth 639.5 million USD. Accumulated in the first 7 months of the year, coffee exports reached about 1.2 million tons, an increase of 10.8% in volume but a decrease of 11.2% in turnover, to 5.45 billion USD. This development is mainly due to the average export price decreasing by 19.9% compared to the same period, down to 4,537 USD/ton.

Regarding the weather, the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting said that on the day and night of August 24, the Central Highlands area will be cloudy, sunny during the day; showers and scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon and night. Lowest temperature 20-23 degrees C, highest 28-31 degrees C, in some places above 32 degrees C. In thunderstorms, there is a possibility of tornadoes, lightning and strong gusts of wind.

Rainstorms in this season need to be monitored in terms of garden care, pest and disease prevention, and goods preservation.

In the coming sessions, the diễn biến of Robusta London, Arabica New York, USD/VND exchange rate, inventory and demand for export purchases will continue to dominate the domestic price level.