USD/JPY remains stuck near the resistance level at 158.00 – 158.50 despite rising Treasury yields. The yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near the 5.32% level, while the yield of 30-year Treasuries continued its attempts to settle above 5.70%. Interestingly, recent hawkish comments from BoJ Governor Ueda did not provide material support to the Japanese yen.
From the technical point of view, USD/JPY continues its attempts to settle above the 158.50 level. If USD/JPY settles above 158.50, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 160.00 – 160.50.
Following the reclaim of the 200-day moving average, last week’s high was exceeded as noted above, and that was followed by a rise above the upper boundary of a rising trend channel. That upper boundary area may see resistance and stall the ascent but if support is confirmed near the 200-day moving average and followed by strength, a continuation higher to challenge last month’s peak of $3.317 could occur.
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EURJPY remains affected by conflicting signals from the main indicators, forming some bullish corrective waves and stabilizing near 178.00. However, this will not affect the main bearish scenario, which remains supported by the formation of 179.45 as an additional resistance level.
We expect the pair to continue mixed trading for now until it gathers the required bearish momentum to resume its negative attempts and reach the bearish targets, starting at 176.80 and 176.00. However, breaking above the additional resistance would give the price room to extend its corrective gains, with the next targets at 179.90 and the key resistance at 180.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 177.00 and 179.40
Platinum price remains under negative pressure, with the price currently attempting to stabilize below the support level at $1705.00, increasing the chances of activating the previously suggested bearish scenario. We reiterate the importance of a daily close below the current support, which would strengthen the chances of targeting $1660.00 and $1605.00 in succession in the near term.
However, a return to stability above $1705.00 would force the price into mixed trading, with room for some gains as it advances toward the key resistance level at $1840.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1660.00 and $1740.00
EUR/USD is near 1.1230 on the daily chart and has recently fallen from the 1.1352 area. I find it important that price is below both the moving averages and the rising trendline, and the latest leg lower has pushed the pair into the lower Fibonacci extension. From a larger time frame perspective, the structure is very bearish.
Support comes in at 1.1225. A downside break from that area would open up 1.1131 and then 1.0993. 1.1352 remains the first major barrier on the upside, with 1.1489 extending higher and coming into focus if we see a more decisive recovery.
RSI is extremely oversold and confirms the strength of the lower moves, however it also increases the probability of a minor bounce back higher. I am looking for opportunities to sell more aggressively should we remain below 1.1352 and within the existing descending trend. If 1.1489 comes into play, I will look to reverse my perspective. A break below 1.1225 would put 1.1131 in focus.
Despite the lack of positive momentum in natural gas price recently, its repeated stability above the additional support level at $2.850 reinforces the dominance of the previously suggested bullish trajectory, with the price currently advancing toward $3.120.
We expect the price to renew its bullish attempts and pressure the 55-period EMA, which has recently formed an important barrier at $3.250. Breaking above this level would open the way toward further positive targets, starting at $3.420 and $3.550, respectively.
The expected trading range for today is between $2.950 and $3.250
This currency paid has been within a long-term upwards track. However, financial institutions and large players who find themselves taking opposing positions and are trying to merely pursue the bullish trend often find that dangers and expensive losses lurk. The USD/JPY trend is publicly being confronted by the Bank of Japan – and sometimes the U.S Treasury/Fed – and those who want to pursue what appears to be a consistently rising tide, must also acknowledge the tide reverses quickly. Retail traders who want to pursue the USD/JPY cannot be blamed, there are profits to be made, but substantial losses can occur too.
USD/JPY’s Uptrend Remains Vulnerable to Sudden Reversals
Technical traders of the USD/JPY can point to a long line of charts to say the currency pair remains locked within an upwards draft. However, those same technical charts – including near-term – also clearly show that spikes downwards occur. The desire to seek momentum in the USD/JPY remains strong and can be described as tantalizing.
Yet, experienced speculators know that what feels like a comfortable march upwards can be struck by a sudden punch downwards. The Bank of Japan is caught within a monetary policy that has many financial institutions outwardly betting against the JPY, thus the BoJ has steadily intervened and crushed long positions. The ability of the Bank of Japan to intervene remains a real threat for large and small traders tempted to buy the USD/JPY.
As of this writing the USD/JPY is near the 158.350 realm and has been showing a track upwards. The currency pair remains fast and has been climbing again over the past couple of weeks – but has also seen momentary strikes lower. Betting on the USD/JPY to move higher at the current elevations is a wager that makes sense.
But it is also a gamble, because if financial institutions are threatened by the BoJ via rhetoric that an intervention could occur, this sometimes proves enough to cause reversals lower. Yes, the USD/JPY has been higher and then has faced loud interventions. Two questions and points come to mind: where would the USD/JPY be if there had been no interventions over the past year? And how should traders attack the USD/JPY if they remain skeptical about fundamental policies that the Bank of Japan is having a difficult time fixing – particularly when interventions to kill off buying momentum is a real piece of the trading landscape.
Abrupt Price Moves Can Undermine Planned Exits
Without the influence of the Bank of Japan interventions the currency pair would likely be closer to 170.00 at this juncture, perhaps higher. However, that really cannot be worked into the thinking of traders accept to know the policy of the BoJ is not held in high regard in the mindsets of many financial institutions.
Thus, retail traders need to understand if they are wagering on the USD/JPY, that the bets should always be on the lookout for sudden problems to emerge and have take profit orders working to cash out winning bets. If a trader can use a trailing stop and simply have their wager eliminated effectively with a profit remaining that is a good option. However, sometimes interventions can cause notorious spikes downwards which shoot past stop loss orders leaving traders at the mercy of their brokers.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Double Top at 158.00
Rising USD/JPY Tests Confidence in the Trend
You cannot blindly bet on the upside of the USD/JPY. The BoJ has proven it can and will hurt the largest of players in the currency pair if they believe too much speculation exists. The Bank of Japan however remains caught in a tough problem. Clearly the government of Japan favors a somewhat weaker JPY, but at the same time doesn’t want the currency to become too devalued. The current USD centric strength in the broad market is problematic too for the USD/JPY right now and not making things easy on policy makers in Japan, nor the U.S Treasury. Yet, looking for upside in the USD/JPY remains the logical bet. However, conservative traders may want to wait for downturns and then look to ignite upside bets.
Following Momentum and Avoiding Sudden Violent Shifts
The USD/JPY is approaching dangerous elevations once again. Again – being the most important word. We have seen this currency pair theatre before. Buying the USD/JPY certainly remains the flavor of the day. The problem for speculators is knowing when it is safe to step into the speculative spotlight and follow momentum correctly, without getting destroyed by a sudden shift of sentiment caused by the BoJ.
USD/JPY: Levels to Watch
Around the article’s quoted price of 158.350, the immediate focus is whether that support area holds and how the pair behaves near resistance at 158.450. Sustained trading above resistance would put 158.850 into focus; a loss of support would shift attention toward 157.950.
These are reference points rather than promised destinations. The unresolved issue is whether moves beyond this narrow range attract sustained participation or quickly reverse, particularly if intervention concerns return to the foreground.
Robert Petrucci is a Market and Geopolitical Analyst at DailyForex with professional experience in the Forex, commodity, and broader financial markets dating back to 1993. His work focuses on risk analysis, macroeconomic themes, and how geopolitical events affect currencies, commodities, stock indices, and cryptocurrencies. Robert brings a conservative wealth management perspective from his long-standing advisory roles, translating complex market conditions into structured scenarios for traders and investors.
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Coffee price continued to form strong bullish waves, moving further away from the pivotal support level at 269.00, as it responded to the positive signals from the main indicators and recorded notable gains, reaching 305.00 and thereby achieving the targets suggested in the previous report.
Currently, with the price attempting to establish 295.10 as additional support and positive momentum available, we expect it to resume its bullish advance, targeting 311.10 in the near term, followed by 320.75, closing the previously formed price gap.
The expected trading range for today is between 294.00 and 311.10
The pair’s lack of bearish momentum has led to the formation of some bullish corrective waves, with GBPJPY breaking above 209.10 yesterday, recovering some of its previous losses as it currently approaches 210.10.
We reiterate that the bearish scenario remains valid as long as 210.40 holds as the key resistance level. Holding below this barrier would give the price a new opportunity to resume negative trading, targeting 209.00 before renewing pressure on the obstacle at 208.10. However, breaking above the current resistance and holding above it would confirm a shift toward the bullish trajectory, paving the way for further gains initially toward 211.30 and 212.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.10 and 210.40
If Tuesday’s high leads to a break above resistance and confirms the formation of a higher swing low, the first notable test of support at the 50-day moving average will have been completed. After reclaiming that average in August there was one quick pullback to test it as support, but the current pullback is a wider swing and carries greater significance.
The successful defense of the 50-day moving average, combined with support at the August swing high and the rising trend channel, adds weight to the underlying strength suggested by the bullish structure. For now, Tuesday’s low at $88.66 is the key reference point, while a move above Tuesday’s high would provide the confirmation needed to turn this potential pullback low into a more meaningful bullish reversal.
