TradingKey – Panic sentiment spreads further as U.S. stock index futures plunge across the board, while crude oil prices surge to a nearly one-month high.
Ahead of the U.S. market open on April 2, the volatility index surged over 10%, sending stock index futures into a collective dive. Specifically, Nasdaq futures fell 478 points, or nearly 2%, to 23,541; S&P 500 futures dropped over 100 points, or 1.54%, to 6,474; and Dow Jones futures fell 658 points, or 1.41%, to 45,907.
Meanwhile, international crude oil prices jumped by more than 10%. Among them, WTI crude ( USOIL) rose 11%, briefly breaking above $110 per barrel and currently trading at $109.93 per barrel, marking a new high for the past month.
WTI Crude Oil Price Chart, Source: TradingView
On April 1, U.S. President Trump delivered a national address regarding the conflict in Iran, declaring that “the United States will launch extremely heavy strikes against Iran within the next two to three weeks.” Following these remarks, gold, cryptocurrencies, and equities all plummeted, while only crude oil prices surged.
Trump’s speech not only negated previous de-escalation signals regarding troop withdrawals but also further intensified the conflict. In fact, immediately after Trump concluded his national address, Iran launched a barrage of missiles toward Israel, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Command announced an expansion of its target range to accelerate the expulsion of U.S. presence in the region in response to Trump’s provocation.
GBP/JPY trades with a mild downside bias on Thursday, though it lacks strong follow-through selling and trims part of its intraday losses as markets remain volatile. Ongoing US-Israel war with Iran keeps sentiment fragile, weighing on the British Pound (GBP), while the Japanese Yen (JPY) holds firm across major peers except the US Dollar (USD) and Canadian Dollar (CAD).
At the time of writing, the cross is trading around 210.90, attempting a rebound after sliding to 210.35 during the Asian session.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows near-term consolidation, with prices trapped between the 100-day and 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMAs) at 210.21 and 211.27, respectively.
Momentum indicators suggest a mildly bearish undertone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 46, holding below the neutral 50 mark, indicating subdued buying interest.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows early signs of weakening momentum, with the MACD line slipping below the signal line and the histogram turning slightly negative.
On the downside, a decisive break below the 100-day SMA could expose the 207.50 support zone, which marks the February swing low. A sustained move below this level would shift focus toward the 200-day SMA near 205.00.
On the upside, a recovery above the 50-day SMA would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure. A sustained break higher could open the door toward the 213.50 resistance area, marked by recent highs, followed by the February peak near 215.00.
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the British Pound.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.55%
0.71%
0.53%
0.31%
0.67%
0.70%
0.59%
EUR
-0.55%
0.16%
-0.07%
-0.27%
0.13%
0.16%
0.02%
GBP
-0.71%
-0.16%
-0.21%
-0.40%
-0.03%
0.01%
-0.14%
JPY
-0.53%
0.07%
0.21%
-0.21%
0.15%
0.18%
0.06%
CAD
-0.31%
0.27%
0.40%
0.21%
0.36%
0.38%
0.26%
AUD
-0.67%
-0.13%
0.03%
-0.15%
-0.36%
0.03%
-0.13%
NZD
-0.70%
-0.16%
-0.01%
-0.18%
-0.38%
-0.03%
-0.14%
CHF
-0.59%
-0.02%
0.14%
-0.06%
-0.26%
0.13%
0.14%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The EURJPY pair continued forming mixed trading, due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, delaying the negative attack in the current trading by its rally towards 184.25 yesterday, to open this morning trading with new negativity, to notice targeting 183.60.
In general, the bearish scenario will remain valid depending on the stability below 184.80 resistance, forming an extra barrier at 184.20 level will support the chances of gathering the negative momentum, to ease the mission of targeting negative levels, which might begin at 183.10 and 182.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 182.20 and 184.20
The EURJPY pair continued forming mixed trading, due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, delaying the negative attack in the current trading by its rally towards 184.25 yesterday, to open this morning trading with new negativity, to notice targeting 183.60.
In general, the bearish scenario will remain valid depending on the stability below 184.80 resistance, forming an extra barrier at 184.20 level will support the chances of gathering the negative momentum, to ease the mission of targeting negative levels, which might begin at 183.10 and 182.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 182.20 and 184.20
The GBPJPY pair is under positive pressure, which forces it to delay the bearish movement, by its rally above 210.60 level, recording some gains by reaching 211.43.
Note that the stability below the main resistance at 213.30 and forming extra barrier at 212.10 level makes us keep waiting for gathering negative momentum, to ease the mission of activating the negative scenario by reaching 210.60 initially, to begin targeting the negative stations near 209.10 and 208.25.
The expected trading range for today is between 209.10 and 211.80
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) rebounded above 1.3300 after hitting four-month lows near 1.3150, as easing geopolitical tensions weakened the US dollar and lifted risk appetite.
However, with uncertainty still high and the Bank of England pushing back against rate-hike expectations, Sterling’s recovery remains fragile.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Bounces from 4-Month Lows
After a torrid trading day on Tuesday, the Pound secured some respite on Wednesday. The prime influence, however, was a weaker dollar amid a rebound in risk appetite with the Pound overall still struggling.
After hitting 4-month lows near 1.3150, the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rebounded to just above 1.3300.
Equity gains offered support, but traders are still wary over the risk of sudden reversal in optimism while hints from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Bailey that he would not back a rate hike hampered the Pound.
According to UoB; “Downward momentum is starting to fade, and if GBP breaks above 1.3285 it would indicate that GBP has moved into a range-trading phase.
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ING commented; “Markets are making another attempt at playing the de-escalation trade. The trigger was reports that Iranian officials are leaning towards dialogue and Trump explicitly saying the US will end the war within two to three weeks.”
Trump also claimed that Iran had asked for a ceasefire and he will address the nation after the New York close.
MUFG expressed some caution; “There is certainly a logic to this rebound in risk on renewed optimism but there are numerous questions that remain unanswered over how this conflict will evolve over the coming weeks.”
It noted the importance of the Strait of Hormuz; “As the WSJ reported yesterday, it looks like the US is going to leave and hope that the exit of the US will encourage Iran to reopen the key chokepoint for global energy. That could prove correct but it is no certainty that Iran will play it like that.”
As far as US data is concerned, ADP reported a 62,000 increase in private payrolls for March compared with consensus forecasts of around 40,000 and followed a 66,000 gain for February.
ADP chief economist Dr. Nela Richardson commented; “Overall hiring is steady, but job growth continues to favor certain industries, including health care.”
BoE Governor Bailey stated that the MPC may debate the case for a precautionary rate rise, but needs to judge that in the context of the remit and how to return inflation to target.
He reiterated; “I still think markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes.
The BoE also warned over the financial risks to the UK and global economy; “the prospect of weaker growth and higher inflation and borrowing costs raised the chance of risks crystallising simultaneously in government debt markets, private credit and the valuations of U.S. tech giants.”
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Platinum price kept its negative stability below the moving average 55 level, which keeps forming extra barrier by its stability at $1980.00, reaching $1925.00.
The price returns to settle within the minor bearish channel’s level by reaching below $1885.00 and providing negative close to confirm its readiness to target several negative stations, to expect forming initial target at $1775.00 level in the near trading, reaching $1720.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1775.00 and $1970.00
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The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days, reaching the weekly top the previous day, and attracts heavy selling during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices drop below the 1.1550 level in the last hour amid the emergence of fresh buying around the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) as US President Donald Trump’s update on the Iran war dampens de-escalation hopes.
Addressing the nation, Trump threatened that Iran would be hit extremely hard over the next two to three weeks and would be brought to the Stone Age if no deal is reached. Trump further added that Iranian energy infrastructure remains a possible target, triggering a sharp rally in Crude Oil prices and fueling inflationary concerns. This, in turn, bolsters bets for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and turns out to be another factor supporting the USD, which is seen exerting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the failure to find acceptance above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and a pullback from the 1.1620-1.1625 supply zone favors bearish traders. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips back toward the zero line after a brief positive extension, with the histogram contracting and hinting at fading bullish momentum. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) eases to around 50, reinforcing a loss of directional conviction after failing to sustain overbought proximity earlier in the move.
Meanwhile, initial support emerges at 1.1520, guarding the recent reaction low near 1.1485, where a break would expose the 1.1450 zone as the next downside objective. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at 1.1580 ahead of the 1.1610–1.1620 band, where prior swing highs converge with the 200-period exponential moving average to define a key barrier. A sustained move above this upper resistance zone would be needed to revive a clear bullish bias, while failure to hold 1.1520 would shift focus back toward the mid-1.1400s.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.42%
0.53%
0.35%
0.24%
0.67%
0.70%
0.45%
EUR
-0.42%
0.11%
-0.09%
-0.20%
0.26%
0.29%
0.02%
GBP
-0.53%
-0.11%
-0.19%
-0.26%
0.16%
0.20%
-0.08%
JPY
-0.35%
0.09%
0.19%
-0.10%
0.32%
0.35%
0.10%
CAD
-0.24%
0.20%
0.26%
0.10%
0.42%
0.44%
0.20%
AUD
-0.67%
-0.26%
-0.16%
-0.32%
-0.42%
0.03%
-0.26%
NZD
-0.70%
-0.29%
-0.20%
-0.35%
-0.44%
-0.03%
-0.26%
CHF
-0.45%
-0.02%
0.08%
-0.10%
-0.20%
0.26%
0.26%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Coffee price failed in its last trading by breaching 316.40 level, forcing it to form bearish corrective waves, to settle before 297.00.
Despite the contradiction between the main indicators, the main stability above the main support at 276.00 supports the continuation of the positive trading in the upcoming period, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering positive momentum to ease its rally towards 307.80, then repeating the attempts of pressing on the previously mentioned barrier to find an exit for recording extra gains in the upcoming period.
The expected trading range for today is between 290.00 and 307.80
