Softer US rate bets should have helped the euro, yet it has stayed flat around 1.12 because France is now the bigger worry. The premium investors demand to hold French 10-year bonds over German Bunds, meaning the extra interest France pays compared with Germany, the euro zone’s benchmark borrower, widened to a 15-year high on Thursday. That is the widest since November 2011, during the euro zone debt crisis, Reuters reported. France’s 10-year yield reached its highest level since July 2002, and the gap also widened for Belgium, Italy, Spain and Greece.
There is no easy rescue either. France is under an EU excessive deficit procedure, a formal EU process for countries whose budget deficit is too large, so it may not qualify for the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument, the central bank’s emergency tool for calming bond markets. ECB President Christine Lagarde has said the fix for France’s finances must be homegrown, which leaves the euro carrying that risk on its own.
Silver is trading near $54.05 on the 4-hour chart, inside the falling channel that has guided prices lower since September. The latest rejection came near $58.09 at the top of the channel, and the drop that followed took silver to a fresh low near $53.43, just under the $53.46 support, before a small bounce.
If $53.46 gives way on a closing basis, $52.41 and then $51.39 come into play. On the upside, silver needs to clear $54.53 first, then $55.77.
USD/JPY moved lower as traders focused on the strong pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.70% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below the psychologically important 5.00% level. Treasury yields moved lower as demand for U.S. bonds increaseed amid sell-off in U.S. equity markets.
Currently, USD/JPY is trying to settle below the 157.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, USD/JPY will head towards the next support, which is located in the 155.00 – 155.50 range.
On the upside, USD/JPY needs to settle above the resistance at 158.00 – 158.50 to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/JPY will move towards the 160.00 level.
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Moving Average Crossover Reinforces Bearish Pressure
Signs of resistance are anticipated near that average given its accelerating downward slope, reflecting increasing seller momentum. The average has also declined below the recent minor lower swing high of $62.09 and is approaching a cross below the falling channel’s midline. Those signs support the bearish implications of the recent moving average crossover, in which the 20-day moving average crossed below the 50-day moving average, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. Together, these factors suggest that any recovery may encounter selling pressure before reaching the upper channel boundary.
Breakdown Risks Extend Toward $48.29
Finally, a further support reference lies near $54.49, defined by the high of a resistance shelf that began forming in October 2025. Given this nearby support, a break to new lows should be treated cautiously until additional technical evidence confirms the breakdown. However, if price continues to fall and these support levels fail to hold, silver could eventually test support near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $48.29. For now, the $55.40 low remains the immediate decision point, with a breakdown favoring trend continuation and a sustained recovery potentially establishing a higher swing low.
EURJPY maintained its bearish stability by forming negative trading to move away from 177.80. The pair is currently fluctuating around 177.25, while continued negative momentum from the main indicators supports our bearish outlook, with the price potentially targeting several downside levels, starting at 176.35 and then 175.75.
We reiterate that a successful move above the resistance barrier, followed by a positive close, would confirm the pair’s shift toward a corrective bullish trend, increasing the likelihood of further gains toward 178.60 and then 179.40.
The expected trading range for today is between 176.35 and 177.80
Natural gas price remains under negative pressure, having recently recorded a sharp decline and settling near $2.730, breaking below the additional support level at $2.820.
Continued trading below the broken support will force the price to maintain its bearish attempts, renewing pressure on the support level at $2.620, which serves as the key level for confirming the overall direction of upcoming trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $2.620 and $2.900
EURGBP completed the previously anticipated bearish move, reaching 0.8370 and approaching strong demand zones around 0.8360. This area represents an important support level for confirming the overall direction of trading in the short and medium term.
If the price holds above current support, it may move sideways while gathering the positive momentum needed to begin recovering its losses, gradually advancing toward 0.8415 and 0.8460. However, a break below current support, followed by a four-hour close that remains below it, would confirm a new bearish phase, potentially exposing the pair to further losses toward 0.8325.4
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8360 and 0.8415
GBPJPY surged to 211.98, approaching the main resistance barrier at 212.10, before quickly reversing toward 211.20, confirming its continued commitment to the main bearish trend.
The main indicators are aligned in supporting the bearish outlook, as the 55-period moving average remains near the main resistance barrier. This favors further downside attempts, potentially targeting 210.40 and 209.60. However, a successful breakout above the main resistance could trigger a strong bullish rally toward several positive targets, starting at 212.65 and extending to 213.25.
The expected trading range for today is between 210.40 and 212.00
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has climbed towards four-week highs around 1.3400 as stronger UK employment and inflation figures reinforce expectations of a November Bank of England rate hike.
Pound Sterling has outperformed its major peers, while concerns over the US artificial-intelligence investment boom continue to limit Dollar demand despite elevated American yields.
GBP/USD Forecasts: 4-Week Highs
The Pound maintained a firm tone on Wednesday after stronger UK labour-market and inflation data reinforced expectations of a Bank of England rate hike in November.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate held above 1.3300 and traded close to 1.3380-1.3400, its strongest level in around four weeks.
Sterling has outperformed most major currencies in recent sessions as UK data surprised on the upside, while the Dollar struggled to gain traction amid renewed concerns surrounding the US technology sector.
GBP/USD faces significant resistance above 1.3400, with a sustained break potentially opening the way towards the mid-1.34s.
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The latest UK labour-market figures showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.7% in the three months to August from 4.9% previously.
Vacancies continued to decline, but the Office for National Statistics reported a modest increase in payroll employment during August and September.
Annual regular earnings growth held around 3.7%.
Wednesday’s inflation figures added further support for Sterling.
Headline CPI accelerated to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, slightly above consensus forecasts, while core inflation increased to 2.8%.
Services inflation also rose to 3.7%.
The combination of stronger labour-market data and firmer inflation has effectively cemented expectations that the Bank of England will increase Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.00% at its November meeting.
Handelsbanken FX strategist Tommy von Brömsen commented; “The UK economy is surprising on the upside. There’s room for more hiking.”
He added; “Rate differentials are going to go in favour of the pound going forward.”
There are still doubts over whether the Bank will deliver the full amount of tightening currently priced over the next 12 months.
Lloyds’ senior UK economist Nikesh Sawjani commented; “The release reinforces expectations of a November hike, rather than making a compelling case in itself for a more aggressive path thereafter.”
AI Concerns Keep Dollar on the Defensive
The Dollar has struggled to benefit fully from elevated energy prices and high US yields as investors continue to assess risks surrounding the artificial-intelligence investment boom.
Concerns have centred on highly leveraged US data-centre companies and the sustainability of current investment models.
ING commented; “Energy markets remain nervous that the US and Israel may once again attack Iran ahead of the US Mid-Terms.”
The bank added that concerns surrounding high-yield US data-centre providers remain a key threat to Dollar strength.
CoreWeave debt has traded at a substantial discount to face value, reinforcing concerns that stress in the AI investment sector could tighten US financial conditions.
The Dollar has also proved vulnerable when technology shares fall sharply, as weaker equities encourage investors to reduce expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.
Nordea remains more constructive on the US currency.
The bank commented; “Inflows into US equities and credit are unlikely to fade simply because interest rates are slightly higher. Passive investment reinforces this trend because broad indices remain heavily concentrated in US mega-cap technology stocks.”
It added that continued unhedged investment flows into US assets should provide underlying Dollar demand.
For GBP/USD, the 1.3400 area remains the immediate technical barrier.
A sustained break higher would strengthen the recent Sterling recovery and bring 1.3450-1.3500 back into focus.
On the downside, 1.3300 should provide initial support, followed by the 1.3230-1.3250 region.
Near-term direction is likely to depend on whether UK rate expectations remain firm and whether concerns surrounding US technology and credit markets continue to restrain the Dollar.
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December natural gas futures are selling off hard for the sixth session in a row. The intense selling pressure started with a closing price reversal top at $3.652 on October 14. It accelerated to the downside after the market crossed to the bearish side of the 50-day moving average at $3.474 last Friday.
The main trend is also down according to the daily swing chart. It was reaffirmed earlier today when sellers took out the swing bottom at $3.234. The nearest swing tops are $3.652 and $3.709. The nearest downside target is $2.896.
What to Watch
For November natural gas futures, my bias remains to the downside. It’s being supported by the breakdown under the 50-day moving average and the downtrend on the main swing chart. Counting the October 14 main top at $3.334, the market has been down six-out-of-seven sessions. This means that on Thursday, it will be in the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. This formation and a subsequent confirmation could soften my bearish outlook.
For December natural gas futures, the breakdown under the 50-day moving average and the breakdown under the swing bottom at $3.234 are providing the best support for my downside bias. Due to the current prolonged break in terms of price and time, on Thursday we will enter the window of time for a closing price reversal bottom. If formed and confirmed, we could see a strong counter-trend rally. This would weaken my outlook slightly.
