Copper price began its trading by losing the bullish momentum due to stochastic attempt to end the bullish rally, to settle again near $5.9700 level, which formed strong barrier in the previous trading.

The stability above $5.9700 supports the chances of gathering the required extra positive momentum to motivate the bullish rally that might target $6.1550 and $6.2500, while the decline below it might force it to provide temporary trading, to target $5.8100 before reaching the additional positive targets.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.9100 and $6.1550

Trend forecast: Fluctuated

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EUR/JPY Forecast: Pair’s Critical Resilience Test at 187.50 Amid Bullish 100-Day EMA Support

The EUR/JPY currency pair presents a compelling technical narrative in early 2025, as it weakens toward the 187.50 level while demonstrating notable resilience above its critical 100-day Exponential Moving Average. This price action creates a crucial juncture for traders and analysts monitoring the cross between the Euro and the Japanese Yen. Market participants globally are scrutinizing this dynamic for signals about broader risk sentiment and central bank policy divergence. Consequently, the pair’s behavior near these technical landmarks offers significant insights into potential future directional moves.

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis and Current Price Dynamics

As of late March 2025, the EUR/JPY exchange rate trades cautiously around the 187.50 handle. This level represents a short-term support zone that has attracted consistent buying interest throughout the first quarter. However, the more substantial and widely watched technical feature remains the 100-day Exponential Moving Average, currently positioned several pips below the spot price. Historically, this moving average has acted as a robust dynamic support during the pair’s broader uptrend, which began in late 2024. A sustained hold above this indicator typically signals maintained bullish momentum from a medium-term perspective.

Several key technical indicators provide context for the current consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has retreated from overbought territory above 70, now hovering in the mid-50s. This suggests a healthy correction within a prevailing uptrend rather than a fundamental reversal. Furthermore, trading volume profiles indicate accumulation near the 187.00-187.80 range, reinforcing the area’s importance. Market analysts often reference these confluence zones where price, volume, and moving averages intersect to gauge potential pivot points.

Fundamental Drivers Influencing the Euro Yen Cross

The fundamental backdrop for EUR/JPY involves a complex interplay between European and Japanese economic policies. On the Eurozone side, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) communicated path for interest rates remains a primary driver. Investors are closely parsing statements from ECB officials for clues on the timing and pace of any further policy normalization beyond initial rate cuts. Conversely, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues its nuanced exit from ultra-accommodative monetary settings, a process that markets are still calibrating. This policy divergence creates inherent volatility for the cross.

Economic data releases directly impact trader sentiment. Strong Eurozone inflation or growth figures can bolster the Euro, while signs of persistent weakness in Japan’s economic recovery may limit the Yen’s appeal. Geopolitical developments and global risk appetite also play outsized roles, as the Yen traditionally functions as a safe-haven currency. Therefore, a shift toward risk-off sentiment can trigger Yen strength, pressuring EUR/JPY lower irrespective of Euro-specific news. Analysts must therefore consider both regional and global catalysts.

Expert Analysis on Key Support and Resistance Levels

Financial strategists emphasize the hierarchical structure of support levels. The immediate support rests at the recent lows near 187.30, followed by the more significant 100-day EMA, which currently approximates 186.80. A decisive daily close below this moving average would likely trigger a deeper corrective phase, potentially targeting the 185.50 region. On the upside, initial resistance is seen near 188.20, the late-February swing high. A clean break above this barrier could open the path toward the psychological 190.00 level, a target many institutional forecasts mention for Q2 2025.

Seasoned chartists also monitor candlestick patterns for reversal or continuation signals. The recent price action has formed several inside bars and doji candles near 187.50, indicating equilibrium and indecision. This often precedes a volatility expansion. The commitment of traders (COT) reports, which show positioning by large speculators, provide another layer of insight. Current data suggests that while long positions in EUR/JPY remain substantial, some profit-taking has occurred, aligning with the recent pullback from yearly highs.

Comparative Performance and Market Context

Understanding EUR/JPY requires viewing it within the broader Forex landscape. The pair’s performance often correlates with global equity markets and the general appetite for carry trades, where investors borrow in low-yielding currencies like the JPY to invest in higher-yielding assets. The table below summarizes key technical levels and comparative strength against other major Yen crosses as of this analysis:

This comparative analysis reveals that EUR/JPY maintains relative strength among the major Yen pairs, underscoring the underlying demand for Euro exposure against the Japanese currency. The pair’s ability to hold above its primary moving average, while others test or breach theirs, is a technically positive sign. Market technicians interpret this relative performance as a clue to underlying capital flows and sector rotation within the Forex market.

Conclusion

The EUR/JPY forecast hinges on the pair’s interaction with the 187.50 support and the 100-day Exponential Moving Average. While short-term weakness is evident, the broader bullish structure remains intact as long as price sustains above this key dynamic level. Traders should monitor upcoming economic data from both regions and any shifts in central bank rhetoric for directional catalysts. The technical setup suggests that the current consolidation may resolve with a continuation of the prior uptrend, provided global risk sentiment remains stable. Consequently, the 100-day EMA continues to serve as the critical line in the sand for the medium-term EUR/JPY outlook.

FAQs

Q1: What does the 100-day EMA indicate for EUR/JPY?
The 100-day Exponential Moving Average is a widely followed medium-term trend indicator. A price trading above it generally suggests a bullish bias, while trading below it can indicate bearish momentum. For EUR/JPY, holding above it supports the ongoing uptrend narrative.

Q2: Why is the 187.50 level significant?
The 187.50 level has acted as a recent pivot point and area of price congestion, where buying and selling interest has historically been balanced. It represents immediate short-term support, and a break below could accelerate selling toward the next major support at the 100-day EMA.

Q3: How do Bank of Japan policies affect EUR/JPY?
The Bank of Japan’s monetary policy directly influences the Yen’s value. A more hawkish BOJ (hinting at rate hikes or reducing stimulus) typically strengthens the JPY, weighing on EUR/JPY. The pace of the BOJ’s policy normalization is a key watchpoint for cross traders.

Q4: What is the main risk to the bullish forecast?
The primary risk is a sustained break below the 100-day EMA on a daily closing basis. This would technically invalidate the current bullish structure and could trigger a deeper correction, potentially driven by a surge in safe-haven Yen demand or unexpectedly dovish ECB signals.

Q5: How does global risk sentiment impact this currency pair?
EUR/JPY is considered a “risk-sensitive” cross. In periods of positive risk appetite (rising stock markets), the pair tends to rise as investors sell the safe-haven JPY. During risk-off periods, the pair often falls due to JPY buying, regardless of Euro-specific news.

This post EUR/JPY Forecast: Pair’s Critical Resilience Test at 187.50 Amid Bullish 100-Day EMA Support first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

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GBP/USD rises as the UK GDP beats forecasts

GBP/USD is edging higher, holding above 1.3550 and moving towards 1.3600, supported by US dollar weakness and stronger-than-expected UK GDP data.

The UK economy expanded by 0.5% month-on-month in February, well above the 0.1% forecast and up from an upwardly revised 0.1% in January. The data suggests the economy had solid momentum heading into the Iran conflict. The dominant services sector drove growth, marking a fourth consecutive monthly expansion, while production and construction also contributed positively.

However, further upside in sterling may be limited as the outlook has deteriorated since the onset of the Iran war. Rising energy prices and the UK’s reliance on imported energy pose downside risks. The International Monetary Fund has already downgraded UK growth to 0.8% for this year from 1.3%.

Despite potential stagflationary pressures, Andrew Bailey has indicated that the Bank of England will not rush to raise interest rates, stressing that the duration of the conflict will be a key determinant. Should the war de-escalate and oil prices stabilise, inflationary pressures may prove transitory, reducing the need for aggressive policy tightening.

Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure, trading near a six-week low amid optimism over potential peace in the Middle East. President Trump has suggested that the conflict could end soon, with diplomatic efforts— including talks involving Israel and Lebanon—supporting risk sentiment.

Additionally, expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged are weighing on the dollar. US initial jobless claims are expected to edge higher to around 215,000, and attention will remain firmly on geopolitical developments.

GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis

GBP/USD found support at the 1.3150 support zone and recovered higher, rising above the falling channel and above the 200 SMA to resistance at 1.36. This, combined with the RSI above 50, keeps buyers optimistic of further upside.

A rise above 1.36 opens the door to further gains towards 1.37 before bringing 1.3870, the 2026 high, into focus.

Support is seen at 1.3420, the 200 SMA and below here at 1.3340, the January low comes into play.

EUR/USD rises on USD weakness & ahead of ECB minutes

EUR/USD is holding above 1.1800 and extending gains, supported by broad US dollar weakness amid improving risk sentiment and growing optimism over a potential de-escalation in the Middle East.

The dollar has come under pressure after President Trump confirmed indirect negotiations with Iran, raising expectations that peace talks could resume in the coming days. He also suggested that Israel and Lebanon may begin direct talks soon, potentially paving the way for a more durable ceasefire.

Further weighing on the greenback, Trump has renewed his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, fuelling concerns over central bank independence.

The euro is also benefiting from improved market sentiment, with European equities moving higher and US stocks hovering near record highs, reducing demand for the safe-haven US dollar.

Attention now turns to eurozone inflation data, expected to confirm that CPI rose to 2.5% year-on-year in March. This comes ahead of the latest European Central Bank meeting minutes from March 19, where policymakers left rates unchanged but highlighted rising risks to both growth and inflation, particularly from elevated energy prices linked to the Iran conflict.

More recently, ECB officials have signalled that inflation expectations could rise faster than anticipated, strengthening the case for potential rate hikes in the coming meetings. However, policymakers continue to stress that there is no urgency to tighten policy, maintaining a cautious and data-dependent approach.

Looking ahead, developments in US–Iran relations will remain a key driver for EUR/USD, alongside incoming eurozone inflation data and ECB communication.

EUR/USD forecast – technical analysis

EUR/USD has recovered from the 1.1410 2026 low, rising above the 200 SMA and re-entering the rising channel. The price has run into resistance at 1.1825, the March high.

Buyers will look to rise above 1.1825 to extend gains to 1.1925, the February high. Above ere 1.20 comes into focus.

Support is seen at 1.1670, the 200 SMA. A break below here brings 1.16 into focus.