2026.09.25 2026.09.25
XAU/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 25.09.26–02.10.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 3,960.00 with a target of 4,900.00–5,610.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 3,960.00. Stop Loss: below 3,890.00, Take Profit: 4,900.00–5,610.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 3,960.00 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 3,720.00–3,290.62. A sell signal: the level of 3,960.00 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 4,030.00, Take Profit: 3,720.00–3,290.62.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 3,960.00 with a target of 4,900.00–5,610.00.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 3,960.00 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 3,720.00–3,290.62.

Analysis

An ascending third wave of larger degree (3) is presumably developing on the weekly chart. Within it, a descending correction has been completed as the fourth wave of smaller degree 4 of (3). Apparently, the fifth wave 5 of (3) has started developing on the daily chart, with wave i of 5 forming as its part. The H4 chart shows that wave (iii) of i of 5 has formed, a local correction is complete as wave (iv) of i, and wave (v) of i has likely started unfolding. If the presumption is correct, XAU/USD will continue to rise to 4,900.00–5,610.00. The level of 3,960.00 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 3,720.00–3,290.62.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time. 

Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode

In Finland, the cost of a grocery basket is forecast by the research organization Pellervo Economic Research (PTT) to increase by an average of 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. YLE News reported this, citing PTT calculations.

Risks to coffee prices

PTT expects the price of coffee to rise somewhat compared with its current level. Senior agricultural economist Päivi Kujala noted that there is no upward price pressure this year, but the risks concern next year.

The El Niño weather phenomenon may affect coffee harvests in Africa and South America. If drought reduces the harvest, coffee prices will rise, Kujala explained. In Finland, coffee had become more expensive for several years, with prices peaking in 2025, when they rose by almost one-third compared with 2024. Prices later stabilized, so a similarly sharp increase is not currently forecast.

More current news is available on the UA.News Telegram channel Telegram.

Beef will remain expensive

According to PTT’s assessment, beef prices in Finland will remain high but will not rise further. Due to the high cost of beef, consumers are more often choosing chicken and pork; analysts expect this trend to continue.

Kujala said there had been pressure to raise beef producers’ prices in order to offset rising production costs. At the same time, PTT forecasts that both producer prices and retail prices will remain at their current levels. Food prices are also partly affected by the war in the Middle East, which raises the cost of energy and fertilizers and, accordingly, food production costs.

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The major support zone is $4,319.61 to $4,230.51. It has been tested successfully three times since early September. The first resistance zone is $4,384.59 to $4,405.59. Sitting inside this zone is the main top at $4,399.67.

Trader reaction to the resistance cluster at $4,317.93 to $4,319.61 is likely to set the tone on Friday. A sustained move over $4,319.61 could generate the upside momentum needed to challenge $4,384.59 to $4,405.59. A sustained move under the 50-day MA would indicate that sellers are still in control with $4,230.51 the next potential target.

What to Watch

Gold has buyers after a third successful test of the support zone since early September. The 50-day at $4,317.93 and the 50% level at $4,319.61 are sitting directly above the market. That cluster is where Friday’s session gets decided.

The dollar eased Friday but is still up more than 1% for the week with back-to-back weekly gains. Treasury yields are off Thursday’s highs without reversing the move. Crude is lower on the Hormuz-talks headline. Gold is bouncing on the combination. University of Michigan and durable-goods data are the next inputs. The bond market has been repricing on strong numbers all week. Friday’s data tells the market whether the repricing continues or the week ends with a pause.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

Copper price continues to lack positive momentum, as it posts further negative closes below the established barrier at $6.7400, forcing it to incur some losses and slip toward $6.6200.

The continued conflict between the main indicators confirms that the price is currently succumbing to a temporary corrective path, increasing the chances of slipping toward the additional support extending to $6.5100. Meanwhile, breaking above the barrier and holding above it would increase the chances of recording further gains, potentially starting at $6.9300.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.5100 and $6.7500

Trend forecast: Fluctuating

Platinum price remains affected by negative pressure, driven by the main indicators aligning to provide additional negative momentum, while the $1,840.00 level continues to form a strong barrier against recent attempts, prompting the price to resume its negative fluctuations and stabilize near $1,740.00.

We expect the price to continue moving sideways; however, its continued stability above the support at $1705.00 may give it an opportunity to renew its bullish attempts, pushing toward $1790.00 before resuming pressure on the aforementioned barrier.

The expected trading range for today is between $1710.00 and $1775.00

Trend forecast: Bullish