Despite the weakness in the pair’s trading yesterday, its repeated stability above the additional support level at 216.35 continues to support the bullish outlook. This morning, the pair has formed some positive waves, approaching the previously suggested first target at 217.35.
The price currently has little choice but to resume its bullish attempts, given that the main momentum indicators continue to provide positive signals. We expect the pair to be drawn soon toward the intraday barrier near 217.85, which represents the key level for determining the upcoming short- and medium-term targets.
A successful break above this barrier would open the way for further gains, potentially extending toward 218.65. On the other hand, failure to break through it would increase the chances of activating a bearish corrective path, pushing the price to break below 216.35 and head directly toward 215.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 216.50 and 217.85
Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) edged higher in recent intraday trading, while negative pressure persists as the stock continues to trade below its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which is acting as dynamic resistance and reinforcing the stability of the short-term bearish corrective trend. Meanwhile, momentum indicators continue to generate bearish signals after previously reaching extremely overbought territory, adding further downside pressure to the stock.
Therefore, our outlook remains bearish for the stock’s upcoming trading sessions, as long as resistance at $345.00 remains intact. Under this scenario, the stock is expected to target the support level at $277.00.
EUR/JPY appreciates after two days of gains, trading around 185.80 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross remains within the ascending channel pattern, signaling an ongoing bullish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross is maintaining a bullish near-term tone as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.45 stays in positive territory, suggesting firm but not overstretched upside momentum.
The EUR/JPY cross may explore the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 187.70, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may test the immediate support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 185.50, followed by the nine-day EMA of 185.07 and the 50-day EMA at 184.70. A break below this confluence support zone may cause the bearish reversal, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.
Yen focus shifts from intervention to BoJ fundamentals
Strategists at Scotiabank observe that the recent Yen narrative is evolving, with markets moving away from the summer’s emphasis on official action. They note that “the market narrative appears to be shifting from the official intervention that dominated through much of the summer,” with participants “now tightening their focus on fundamentals into the September 18 BoJ meeting.” This refocusing on underlying drivers, rather than headline intervention risk, is increasingly shaping positioning in JPY ahead of the policy decision.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.06%
0.04%
0.14%
0.09%
0.02%
0.02%
0.16%
EUR
-0.06%
-0.02%
0.11%
0.03%
-0.04%
-0.07%
0.10%
GBP
-0.04%
0.02%
0.13%
0.05%
-0.01%
-0.04%
0.12%
JPY
-0.14%
-0.11%
-0.13%
-0.07%
-0.14%
-0.17%
0.00%
CAD
-0.09%
-0.03%
-0.05%
0.07%
-0.07%
-0.09%
0.07%
AUD
-0.02%
0.04%
0.00%
0.14%
0.07%
-0.02%
0.10%
NZD
-0.02%
0.07%
0.04%
0.17%
0.09%
0.02%
0.16%
CHF
-0.16%
-0.10%
-0.12%
-0.00%
-0.07%
-0.10%
-0.16%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices are extending their upward trajectory, with XAU/USD holding near recent highs as of mid-February 2026, driven by a combination of technical momentum, persistent safe-haven demand, and expectations of central bank policy shifts. The precious metal has climbed over 8% since the start of the year, buoyed by geopolitical uncertainties and a softer U.S. dollar, and market analysts see further upside potential if key resistance levels are breached.
What’s Driving the Gold Rally?
The current bullish run in gold is underpinned by several macro factors. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s signals of a potential pause in rate hikes have weakened the dollar, making gold more attractive to international buyers. Additionally, ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth continue to fuel safe-haven inflows into the yellow metal. Central bank buying, particularly from emerging markets, remains a structural support, with official sector purchases in 2025 reaching a two-decade high.
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD has broken above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a classic bullish crossover that often attracts momentum traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 65, indicating strong upward momentum without being overbought, leaving room for further gains before a potential pullback.
Key Levels to Watch
Immediate resistance is seen at the psychological $2,700 mark, followed by the all-time high near $2,750. A decisive close above these levels could open the path toward $2,800. On the downside, support is established at $2,620, the 20-day moving average, and a break below that could signal a short-term correction. Traders are also monitoring the $2,580 level, which aligns with a Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally.
Volume analysis shows increasing participation in the rally, with open interest in gold futures rising by 5% over the past week, suggesting that new money is entering the market rather than just short covering.
Why This Matters for Investors
For investors, the sustained bullish trend in gold offers a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. With real yields still negative in several major economies, gold’s opportunity cost remains low, making it an attractive asset in diversified portfolios. However, a sudden shift in Fed policy or a resolution of geopolitical tensions could trigger profit-taking, so risk management is crucial.
Conclusion
Gold’s bullish run appears poised to continue, supported by solid technicals and macro tailwinds. While short-term corrections are possible, the overall trend remains upward. Investors should watch key resistance levels and central bank communications for cues on the next leg of the move.
FAQs
Q1: Is gold a good investment in 2026? Gold remains a viable hedge against inflation and market volatility, especially with central banks diversifying reserves. However, it’s essential to consider your risk tolerance and portfolio goals.
Q2: What is the forecast for XAU/USD this year? Analysts are cautiously bullish, with targets ranging from $2,700 to $2,800 if current support levels hold. A break below $2,580 could signal a reversal.
Q3: How does the U.S. dollar affect gold prices? Gold and the dollar typically move inversely. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting demand and prices.
USD/CAD gained ground as demand for commodity-related currencies declined despite rising gold markets. The pullback in the oil markets has not provided support as traders remained worried about potential escalation in the Middle East, which could hurt global growth and reduce demand for commodities.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.3825 – 1.3840. In case this attempt is successful, USD/CAD will get to the test of the 50 MA at 1.3855. A move above the 50 MA will push USD/CAD towards the next resistance level at 1.3900 – 1.3915.
Price behavior suggests a continuation of the bearish trend until there is evidence to the contrary. That wouldn’t occur unless there was a sustained reclaim of the 50-day moving average. Since that average may be at or near Monday’s high before an upside breakout is attempted, it may have greater significance. The breakout of consolidation, along with the reclaim of a key moving average, would suggest that an advance from there may have greater success than if that 50-day moving average was approached.
Above the 50-day moving average is a lower swing high of $2.98, a key resistance area from structure. It is supported as resistance by a higher swing low from May. That wouldn’t change the overall bearish technical outlook represented in the larger bearish structure. In that case, the current developing symmetrical triangle pattern could be interpreted as a bearish pennant, could add to momentum if a breakdown below last week’s low of $2.69 occurs.
Analysts forecast USD/JPY at 149 by year-end as intervention and faster BoJ tightening reshape the Yen outlook, despite spot holding above 159.
The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate climbed back above 159.20 on Monday, leaving a sizeable gap between current levels and Bank of America’s revised year-end forecast.
USD/JPY traded as high as 159.28 during the session and remained near the top of its daily range, even though the pair is almost 3% below the late-July levels which triggered coordinated US-Japan intervention.
BofA has become materially more constructive on the Yen, cutting its end-2026 USD/JPY forecast to 149 from 152.
“We remain constructive on JPY and revised down USD/JPY forecasts this month,” strategist Shusuke Yamada said, with the bank now forecasting 153 in Q3, 149 in Q4 and Q1 2027, followed by 148 in Q2.
The change is closely tied to what BofA sees as a new policy regime.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the US Treasury, the Takaichi administration and the Bank of Japan are now all involved in the Yen story, although BofA cautions that their objectives are “unlikely to be identical”.
The bank nevertheless believes the combination of direct intervention and faster monetary tightening has altered the balance of risks.
BofA’s rates team now expects the BoJ to increase rates in September and December 2026, followed by further hikes in March and July 2027, lifting its terminal-rate assumption from 1.75% to 2.00%.
USD/JPY recovered from an early dip below 158.60 and finished the session near 159.20, another reminder that increasingly hawkish BoJ expectations have yet to produce a clean Yen trend.
Near-Term USD/JPY Outlook: Staying Above 155 Could Force More BoJ Action
There is a particularly interesting feedback loop in BofA’s forecast.
“Our base case assumes USD/JPY falls to 149 by end-2026 and 145 by end-2027, allowing the BoJ to reach 2% in July 2027,” the bank said.
If the Yen refuses to strengthen, however, the policy response could become considerably more aggressive.
“If the yen instead remains around 155 or above, we think the BoJ may need to raise rates to 2.5%,” BofA said, implying another substantial repricing of Japanese front-end yields.
That makes current levels around 159 awkward.
The market is effectively sitting in the zone which, under BofA’s framework, could eventually force the Bank of Japan to tighten more than the bank’s own base case assumes.
The alternative risk is that policymakers lose their nerve.
BofA warns that if intervention was intended merely to slow Yen depreciation, rather than signal a broader change in policy, “USD/JPY may rise again beyond 160”.
We explored that same problem in our latest USD/JPY weekly forecast: September tightening is increasingly expected, but the Yen has demanded evidence that one rate increase will be followed by more.
The rare joint US-Japan operation earlier this month showed Washington and Tokyo were prepared to act together when the Yen’s decline threatened broader financial stability.
BofA’s 149 forecast goes a step further by assuming policy follows the intervention rather than relying on repeated market operations.
The gap from 159.20 to 149 is substantial, but that is precisely why BofA’s forecast stands out.
It is not simply a call for a softer Dollar; it is a wager that Japan’s reaction function has changed.
The pair ended its latest bullish surge after hitting 217.10, which forced it to form some sideways trading as it gathers additional positive momentum. The price is currently fluctuating around 216.70, maintaining its positive stability above the initial support at 216.35.
The above keeps our bullish bias intact, with the pair potentially targeting 217.35 and 217.85, respectively. However, slipping below 216.35 and recording a negative close would activate the corrective scenario, potentially pushing the price toward 215.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 216.30 and 217.50
The pair has been forced into some sideways trading since Friday as it repeatedly holds below the 186.05 barrier. During this morning’s trading, the price declined toward 185.00 to stabilize around 185.55, maintaining its commitment to the main bullish scenario.
We will currently rely on 184.80 as the first additional support level and emphasize the importance of the price gathering positive momentum, which would enable it to surpass the 186.00 barrier. Holding above this level would allow the pair to achieve further gains, potentially starting at 186.55 and extending toward 187.25, breaking below the additional support would reactivate the bearish corrective path, reaching towards 184.35 and 183.75.
The expected trading range for today is between 185.00 and 186.55
Silver price (XAG/USD) remains stronger for the fourth successive day, trading around $69.00 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday. Silver price rises as concerns over United States (US) debt management and fiscal sustainability persist.
This market reaction follows the US Treasury Department’s pledge to at least double its buybacks of longer-dated government debt to curb surging bond yields. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated these buybacks could exceed $4 billion, signaling a strategic effort to demonstrate that elevated yields fail to accurately reflect underlying economic fundamentals.
However, non-yielding Silver could face potential headwinds if energy prices trend upward, which could limit the scope for upcoming interest-rate cuts. Secretary Bessent announced plans to impose unprecedentedly tough sanctions as part of an economic isolation campaign designed to force Iran and its trade partners into compliance. This policy shift threatens further constraints on global energy markets, especially as Iranian oil shipments experience severe disruptions and offers to Chinese buyers fall off amid an ongoing US naval blockade.
Tehran has dismissed the impending sanctions as an ineffective attempt to exert economic pressure, emphasizing decades of experience navigating blockades and building economic resilience. Meanwhile, geopolitical friction around the Strait of Hormuz remains acute, with vessel transit through the critical oil corridor staying well below historical averages.
Fed watchers eye Warsh’s Jackson Hole focus on AI and task forces
According to Deutsche Bank, their US economists have published a preview of Fed Chair Warsh’s upcoming Jackson Hole appearance, highlighting the potential for a more thematic address. They note that if Warsh opts for a “big-picture” speech, “then his options include a discussion of the Fed’s task forces he set up, or possibly a speech on AI’s impact on the economy and his thinking,” framing the event as a key opportunity for insight into his broader policy approach.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
