The US Dollar Index is trading near 102.43 on the 4-hour chart after extending its recovery from the 101.54 support area. What stands out to me is that price has reclaimed the short-term moving average and continues to hold above the rising trendline, keeping the broader structure constructive. The recent sequence of higher lows also suggests buyers remain in control, although DXY is now approaching another important resistance area.

The first resistance I am watching is 102.59. A clean break above that level would expose 102.92, followed by 103.32. On the downside, 102.03 is the first important support, with 101.54, 101.18, and 100.87 becoming more relevant if sellers regain control.

RSI is trading in the upper portion of its range, confirming strong bullish momentum but also suggesting the move is becoming somewhat stretched. I am leaning bullish while DXY remains above 102.03 and the rising trendline. A sustained break above 102.59 would strengthen the case for 102.92, while a move below 102.03 would weaken the immediate bullish setup.

Despite the pair’s price repeatedly holding above the support level at 174.90, the prevailing negative factors, including the continued formation of additional resistance at 177.80 and the main indicators providing negative momentum, increase the chances of renewed bearish attempts, with the price currently trading around 175.60.

To confirm the bearish outlook for the upcoming period, we recommend waiting for the price to break below the aforementioned support and close negatively beneath it. This would open the way toward new bearish targets, starting at 174.55 and 173.95. However, breaking above 177.80 would invalidate the current bearish scenario, giving the price an opportunity to form strong bullish corrective waves that could target 179.25, followed by the resistance level around 180.80.

The expected trading range for today is between 175.00 and 176.55

Trend forecast: Sideways

(MENAFN– Daily Forex) The U.S. dollar continues to rise against the Japanese yen on Tuesday, but we have both central banks in the forefront over the next few sessions. The interest rate situation continues to be front and center here.USD/JPYThe U.S. dollar has risen slightly against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Tuesday to reach above the 200-day EMA, although just barely. At this point, this looks like a market that is doing everything it can to try to get towards the ¥158.50 level.Top Regulated Brokers1 Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money We’ll see whether or not it can break through all of that noise, though, because, quite frankly, this is an area that could be difficult. Keep in mind, interest rates in America still far outpace Japan. But it will be all about the statement and the press conference.Interest rates are still the driver here

This week will be noisy in this particular pair, mainly due to the fact that we have an interest rate decision on Wednesday coming out of the United States, expected to be unchanged. Friday morning in Asia, we will have the Japanese releasing their latest interest rate decision statement and press conference. That obviously will be a big mover here.

EURUSD Chart by TradingViewAll things being equal, if the market were to break above the ¥159 level, I think that would be a major victory for the U.S. dollar. Keep in mind that the interest rate differential favors the U.S. dollar, and the market turning around here probably needs some type of massive change from one of these two central banksPerhaps more likely than not, the Federal Reserve. If the Federal Reserve suddenly sounds dovish, then that could have this pair selling off. Right now, though, I like the idea of buying dips. I have for a while. I’ve been long of this for a while. I’ve been very patient, but get paid at the end of every day. That, of course, does help the situation if you’re long.Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

EUR/USD stayed in sideway consolidations last week and outlook is unchanged. Initial bias remains neutral this week first, and further decline is expected with 1.1276 resistance intact. . Below 1.1111 will extend larger fall from 1.2081 to 1.0904 fibonacci level. However, firm break of 1.1276 will indicate short term bottoming, and bring stronger rebound to 55 D EMA (now at 1.1373).

In the bigger picture, current development suggests that fall from 1.2081 medium term top could be reversing the rise from 1.0176 (2025 low), and probably even that from 0.9534 (2022 low). Deeper fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.0904 next. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1710 resistance holds, in case of rebound.

In the long term picture, immediate focus is now on 55 M EMA (now at 1.1246). Sustained break there will argue that rise from 0.9534 (2022 low) has completed as a three wave corrective move at 1.2081, after rejection at 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level. That will keep the long term down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact.

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Slips Below Scotiabank Support

Pound Sterling has slipped below Scotiabank’s near-term support area as the UK Budget approaches, although the bank still sees buyers returning on dips.

Pound Sterling slipped below a near-term support area on Monday, putting Scotiabank’s warning of a retreat towards $1.33 into focus before Wednesday’s UK Budget.

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate was trading at $1.3347, down 0.22% on the day and just beneath the bank’s $1.3350-$1.3355 reference zone.

Its strategists label the short-term outlook neutral to bearish: “GBP gains through the low 1.34 area late last week may have stalled and price may be reversing modestly with minor support at 1.3350/55 under a little pressure. Spot losses may extend to the 1.33 area below here.”

The $1.33 reference is a conditional technical projection with no fixed date, not a year-end forecast.

Scotiabank has not abandoned the more constructive signal from Pound Sterling’s mid-October rebound.

“Broader price action is positive, following the solid mid-October rebound from the low 1.31 area, however. Modest GBP losses should entice support from bargain-hunters.”

A credible Budget may deliver little fresh currency support

Chancellor John Healey’s 28 October Budget comes against higher debt-servicing costs, with updated official forecasts accompanying the statement.

Scotiabank’s assessment suggests investors already expect a broadly reassuring outcome.

“The UK weekend press coverage of Chancellor Healey’s Wednesday budget announcement centered mostly on the need for the government to maintain fiscal credibility.”

The bank adds: “More social spending will have to be balanced by revenue increases (with a higher surcharge on bank profits above GBP100mn thought likely).”

The possible bank surcharge is part of that pre-Budget discussion, not an announced measure.

Scotiabank says: “Despite sterling’s drift today, most commentators assume that Healey will deliver a credible budget which may be largely sterling-neutral. Front-end GBP vols are, however, relatively elevated, suggesting investors are cautious.”

Those short-dated measures of expected exchange-rate volatility indicate investors are still allowing for movement around the announcement, despite the broadly calm fiscal assumption.

The Budget is only half of Wednesday’s test for GBP/USD, with the Federal Reserve’s October meeting ending that day too.

In its Monday assessment, Scotiabank recorded little expected tightening at that meeting but much more for December: “Expectations for this week’s meeting are muted with short-term rates markets only pricing about 2bpts of tightening while December is priced for 22bpts.”

Guidance that sustains expectations of another US increase could support the Dollar even if the UK Budget avoids unsettling investors.

What This Means for GBP/USD

At $1.3347, Pound Sterling is already marginally below the support Scotiabank identified. Continued trading beneath that area would keep the bank’s $1.33 downside scenario relevant, while a recovery above it would reduce the immediate pressure.

The bank still expects modest declines to attract buyers. A credible Budget could help that response, but its own assessment suggests fiscal reassurance is already the prevailing expectation, limiting the case for assuming an automatic rally.

The US decision could therefore determine whether a calm UK outcome is enough to stabilise the pair. Stronger signals for December Fed tightening would test the resilience of the mid-October recovery even without a domestic fiscal surprise.

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

GBP/USD is trading near 1.3333 on the 2-hour chart. After a week stuck between 1.3356 and 1.3407, the pound has slipped below the bottom of that range. Price is now under the faster moving average and resting just above the slower one.

The first support is 1.3295, then 1.3264. The broken 1.3356 floor is now the first resistance, followed by 1.3407.

RSI is near 39, showing mild selling pressure. In my view, the pound has a slight bearish lean below 1.3356, and Wednesday’s Budget could decide the next move. A close below 1.3295 would open 1.3264, while a move back above 1.3356 would favor buyers.