Created on September 18, 2026

The GBP/JPY pair, like so many others, is going to be waiting to see what the Japanese have to say during the press conference early Friday morning.

GBP/JPY

The British pound has fallen during the trading session here on Thursday as the Bank of England chose not to raise rates. Although the Bank of England sounded like they were still relatively hawkish, it looks like the markets do not believe it. As a result, the British pound has fallen against most currencies.

Overall, this is a market that continues to see questions asked of the Bank of Japan and what they may be doing at this juncture. After all, traders are trying to figure out whether or not they remain very hawkish, or if this is a one-and-done type of scenario.

The area just below current trading, right around the 206 yen level

This is a level that is important. It has been supported multiple times, and after all of this intervention that we have seen in the Japanese yen, this area is going to be watched very closely. After that, you have the ¥205 level. Anything below there, I think, solidifies the downtrend.

Overall, I think this is a scenario where the interest rate differential will continue to be a driver of this pair higher eventually. But we need to get through the Bank of Japan first, and we also need to see whether or not they blink. If they blink or sound like they are not completely dedicated to raising rates on a relatively steady basis, that could work against the value of the yen.

Holding this pair to the upside also pays you at the end of every day, and I think that is something that cannot be argued. It does not mean that it has to rally now, but I will be watching how it behaves after the announcement for the first few hours. If we can stay above ¥206, I think that is a good sign.

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Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The EURJPY pair activated with stochastic positivity by forming a new bullish rally, approaching the main barrier at 180.80, to settle below it, holding below this barrier makes us keep the bearish scenario, which might target 179.45 and 178.60 levels.

While breaching the current barrier and providing a daily close above it will provide a new chance for forming bullish waves, to target 181.50 and 182.10 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 179.45 and 180.80

Trend forecast: Bearish

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at Japan’s inflation data. Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 1.9% in August, while analysts expected that it would rise to 2.1%. Core Inflation Rate decreased from 1.8% to 1.7%, compared to analyst forecast of 1.8%. Inlation data served as an additional bearish catalyst for the yen.

If USD/JPY moves above the resistance at 158.00 – 158.50, it will head towards the resistance level at 160.00 – 160.50. On the support side, a move below the 156.50 level will open the way to the test of the support at 155.00 – 155.50.

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2026.09.18 2026.09.18
USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 18.09.26–25.09.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: once the correction has been completed, consider short positions below the level of 157.50 with a target of 151.76–148.92. A sell signal: the local correction ends and the price holds below 157.50. Stop Loss: above 158.10, Take Profit: 151.76–148.92.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 157.50 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 160.48–163.90. A buy signal: the level of 157.50 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 156.90, Take Profit: 160.48–163.90.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions below 157.50 with a target of 151.76–148.92 once the correction is completed.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above 157.50 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 160.48–163.90.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending third wave of larger degree 3 has formed, a downward correction has been completed as the fourth wave 4, and the fifth wave 5 is developing. Apparently, the first wave of smaller degree (1) of 5 has formed and a bearish correction (2) of 5 is developing on the daily chart. On the H4 time frame, wave A of (2) is developing, within which wave iii of A has been completed and a local correction iv of A is nearing completion. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to decline to 151.76–148.92 after the correction ends. The level of 157.50 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 160.48–163.90.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time. 

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

2026.09.18 2026.09.18
EUR/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 18.09.26–25.09.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 1.1450 with a target of 1.1790–1.2088. A buy signal: the price holds above 1.1450. Stop Loss: below 1.1405, Take Profit: 1.1790–1.2088.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 1.1450 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.1350–1.1230. A sell signal: the level of 1.1450 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 1.1495, Take Profit: 1.1350–1.1230.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 1.1450 with a target of 1.1790–1.2088.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 1.1450 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.1350–1.1230.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree B is developing, with wave (A) of B forming as its part. On the daily time frame, the third wave 3 of (A) is apparently unfolding. Within it, wave i of 3 has formed, a bearish corrective wave ii of 3 has been completed, and wave iii of 3 has started developing. On the H4 time frame, the first wave of smaller degree (i) of iii has formed, and a local correction has presumably ended as the second wave (ii) of iii. If the presumption is correct, EUR/USD will continue to rise to 1.1790–1.2088. The level of 1.1450 is critical in this scenario. A breakout below it will allow the pair to continue falling to the levels of 1.1350–1.1230.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time. 

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

The GBPJPY pair failed in confirming breaking 208.10 level, which forces it to activate the bullish corrective trend, to surpass 209.45 level and recording extra gains by its rally towards 210.30.

Note that stability below 210.40 supports the continuation of the negativity in the upcoming trading. The price might be affected by the instability until gathering extra negative momentum, to repeat the pressure attempts on 208.10 barrier to find an exit to reach the negative stations, which might extend to 206.85.

The expected trading range for today is between 208.10 and 210.40

Trend forecast: Bearish