The weekly chart shows this week’s range contained within last week’s range, reflecting consolidation on that timeframe. It also provides key support and resistance levels, at $2.912 and $3.18, respectively. Another important development is that this week is set to close above support represented by the 200-week moving average near $2.997 and the 20-week moving average around $2.985.
Both failed to hold as support earlier in the week, but quick reclaims within the week show that support has been retained near those moving averages. Therefore, Friday’s bullish outside day is occurring as natural gas remains above important weekly support, giving the short-term reversal signal a stronger technical foundation.
At 9:15 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil was priced at $103.37 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (we’ll explain different benchmarks later in this article). That’s a gain of $0.39 drop compared with yesterday morning and around $37.41 higher than the price one year ago.
Oil price per barrel
% Change
Price of oil yesterday
$103.86
-0.47%%
Price of oil 1 month ago
$97.34
+6.19%
Price of oil 1 year ago
$65.96
56.72%
Price of oil yesterday
Oil price per barrel
$103.86
% Change
-0.47%%
Price of oil 1 month ago
Oil price per barrel
$97.34
% Change
+6.19%
Price of oil 1 year ago
Oil price per barrel
$65.96
% Change
56.72%
Will oil prices go up?
It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.
How oil prices translate to gas pump prices
Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.
Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”
The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.
It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.
How oil and natural gas prices are linked
Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:
Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America
Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:
The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.
All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.
Energy coverage from Fortune
Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:
Frequently asked questions
How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change during the day?
The price of oil updates constantly when the “futures” markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.
How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy we’ll have—and the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.
How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?
When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but it’s also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as it’s more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.
2026.10.02 2026.10.02 WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 02.10.26–09.10.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 87.70 with a target of 105.17–115.50. A buy signal: the price holds above 87.70. Stop Loss: below 86.20, Take Profit: 105.17–115.50.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 87.70 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 79.25–67.00. A sell signal: the level of 87.70 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 89.20, Take Profit: 79.25–67.00.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 87.70 with a target of 105.17–115.50.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 87.70 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 79.25–67.00.
Analysis
On the weekly chart, a descending correction has likely finished developing as the second wave of larger degree (2) and an ascending third wave (3) is forming. On the daily time frame, the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) has apparently formed, a downward correction has been completed as the second wave 2 of (3), and the third wave 3 of (3) is developing, with wave i of 3 unfolding as its part. On the H4 time frame, wave (iii) of i is developing, with a local correction completed as wave iv of (iii) within it. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 105.17–115.50 within wave v of (iii). The level of 87.70 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 79.25–67.00.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate came under heavy pressure on Thursday, falling to fresh three-month lows below 1.3200 before stabilising as investors reacted to extreme moves in global bond markets.
GBP/USD touched around 1.3193, its lowest level since June, before recovering modestly.
The 2026 low remains around 1.3140.
Risk appetite deteriorated sharply as bond yields surged across major markets, boosting demand for the Dollar and limiting support for Sterling.
ING had commented; “Expect DXY to remain bid in a 101.50-101.80 range today, but an upside breakout is a possibility should tomorrow’s US data surprise on the upside or should the sell-off in European government debt start to heavily weigh on the euro.”
According to UoB; “GBP has likely entered a range-trading phase, expected to be between 1.3205 and 1.3345.”
Weak US Jobs Data Eases Bond-Market Pressure
Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
The bond-market rout intensified on Thursday, with the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing above 5.3% and the UK 30-year gilt yield breaking above 6% for the first time since 1998.
The surge in borrowing costs triggered losses across global equity markets and intensified concerns over fiscal sustainability.
AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould commented; “Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey already have enough on their plate without a rapid increase in government borrowing costs since they took office. Gilt yields moving at such a pace presents a major challenge for their spending and borrowing plans.”
Friday’s US employment data, however, provided some relief.
Non-farm payrolls increased by just 29,000 in September, far below consensus forecasts of around 90,000.
The unemployment rate also edged higher to 4.2% from 4.1%, while previous payroll estimates were revised lower.
The weak report prompted a sharp retreat in Treasury yields and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in October.
Markets cut the implied probability of an October hike to around 20%, compared with close to 40% before the release and roughly 70% last week.
The US 10-year yield retreated towards 5.17% following the figures.
Softer Inflation and Jobs Data Challenge Fed Tightening Bets
The labour-market figures followed softer-than-expected US inflation data earlier in the week.
Core PCE prices increased 0.2% in August, while the annual rate held at 3.0%.
The data had already encouraged traders to reduce expectations of a back-to-back Federal Reserve rate hike.
National Australia Bank head of FX strategy Ray Attrill commented; “There’s a little bit of comfort to be drawn from the (US PCE) numbers. I think the market’s been right to moderate somewhat its expectations for a back-to-back Fed hike, but I don’t think it necessarily means there aren’t still more Fed hikes ahead.”
The latest payroll figures have strengthened the argument for the Fed to pause in October, although inflation remains above target and policymakers may still consider another increase later in the year.
Attrill had also noted that the Dollar was becoming more sensitive to developments in longer-dated Treasury yields than to immediate policy pricing.
That relationship was evident again on Friday as lower yields triggered a modest Dollar retreat.
For the GBP/USD exchange rate, the 1.3190-1.3200 area remains the immediate downside support zone.
A sustained break below this region would expose the June low around 1.3140.
On the upside, Pound Sterling would need to recover above 1.3250 and then 1.3300 to ease the immediate bearish pressure.
The softer US jobs report has provided some breathing room, but the broader Dollar trend remains supported by high yields, elevated geopolitical risk and continued concerns over global fiscal policy.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
U.S. dollar is losing some ground against a broad basket of currencies in a volatile trading session. However, the American currency managed to rebound from session lows, supported by higher Treasury yields. As a result, dollar’s dynamics were neutral for gold markets today.
Gold failed to settle above the $4200 level and pulled back below the support at $4160 – $4180. In case gold stays below the $4160 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $4000 – $4020 range.
On the upside, a move above the $4200 level will push gold towards the resistance level at $4300 – $4320.
2026.10.02 2026.10.02 GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 02.10.26–09.10.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.3308 with a target of 1.2938–1.2745. A sell signal: the price holds below 1.3308. Stop Loss: above 1.3355, Take Profit: 1.2938–1.2745.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3308 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3560–1.3675. A buy signal: the level of 1.3308 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 1.3265, Take Profit: 1.3560–1.3675.
Main Scenario
Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.3308 with a target of 1.2938–1.2745.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation above 1.3308 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3560–1.3675.
Analysis
On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree (A) of B is developing. Within it, wave 1 of (A) has formed, a downward correction has been completed as wave 2 of (A), and the third wave 3 of (А) is unfolding. Apparently, the first wave of smaller degree i of 3 has formed and corrective wave ii of 3 is developing on the daily chart. Wave (c) of ii is forming on the H4 chart, with wave iii of (c) still developing as part of its structure. If the presumption is correct, GBP/USD will continue to decline to the levels of 1.2938–1.2745. The level of 1.3308 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3560–1.3675.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
The EURGBP confirmed its surrender to the dominant bearish trend by providing several closes below 0.8600 level, activating with the main indicators’ negativity by forming sharp decline, to surpass the initial targets to settle near 0.8515.
Forming extra barrier at 0.8454 level and stochastic reach to the oversold level, we expect renewing the negative attempts, to target 0.8490 and 0.8470 level.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8490 and 0.8520
The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1260 on the 2-hour chart as it rebounds from the latest decline. I see price trading below both moving averages, and still within a longer-term bearish move. The bounce, however, is improving momentum in the near-term, and I am looking for the first Fibonacci level at 1.1278 to be tested.
The next resistance would be at 1.1298, with 1.1317 above that. The support would be at 1.1254, and then 1.1215 and 1.1189.
RSI is moving up from the oversold area, but is still below the center line. This means the bullish momentum is not confirming a trend reversal, and I would expect price to continue falling, while staying below 1.1278 and 1.1298. I would see a break above 1.1317 as bullish and a break below 1.1254 as more bears coming in toward 1.1215.
The U.S. Dollar Index eased after the report, falling from a session high at 102.132 to near 101.74. It remains above the 50-day moving average at 99.94 after a sharp run higher. The dollar gave gold some room Friday. Control of the currency trade is another matter.
That’s why gold couldn’t hold the first spike. The metal got a weaker jobs report, lower October hike odds, a lower 10-Year yield and a softer dollar. It still couldn’t take out the 61.8% level.
What to Watch
The payrolls report pushed the October rate trade out of the way. Friday’s bounce is running on short-end relief. Gold still needs the long end of the bond market to follow it lower. The 10-Year and the dollar backed off Friday without breaking anything on their charts.
The bias is to the downside with the main trend down on the swing chart. The jobs report gave gold a chance to repair the break and it stalled before the 61.8% level at $4,230.51. Spot Gold is still trading under the 50% level at $4,319.61 and the 50-day moving average at $4,327.50. This week’s low at $4,110.87 is the level underneath.
If you’d like to know more about how to Spot Gold, please visit our educational area.
Daily chart of the US 2-Year Yield showing price pulling back toward 4.735% following US employment data.
The 2-year yield I’m watching is dropping after the jobs report came in very anemic on Friday. We had anticipated 90,000 jobs added; we got 29,000. So, the idea is maybe the Federal Reserve won’t have to raise rates as quickly. We’ll have to wait and see, but this will have a major influence on how certain assets play out, and that is in the back of my mind.
