The pair succumbed to positive pressure during yesterday’s trading, surging toward 178.45 before returning to fluctuate near the resistance level at 178.10 to gather additional positive momentum.
We emphasize the importance of waiting for confirmation of a breakout above current resistance, which would pave the way for further gains toward 178.70 and 179.25, respectively. However, a renewed bearish move would require the price to first decline toward 176.40, followed by an attempt to reach the support level at 174.95.
The expected trading range for today is between 177.00 and 178.70
TradingKey — International oil prices suffered a fresh round of heavy selling. Following the release of the U.S. midterm election results, in which the Democratic Party swept both the House of Representatives and the Senate, markets began betting that the Trump administration could face mounting pressure, potentially prompting the U.S. to reconsider military action against Iran.
On November 4, WTI crude (USOIL) plunged intraday to as low as $87.13 per barrel, a decline of over 9.3%, while Brent crude (UKOIL) hit a low of $93.22 per barrel, down about 10%, marking its largest single-day drop since May. Heading into November 5, oil prices continued their downward trend, with WTI trading at $86.96 per barrel, down 1.24%, and Brent crude at $94.07 per barrel, down 0.57%. Brent has retreated more than 20% from its late-October high near $118, sinking to its lowest level in over two months.
The Democratic victory reinforced market expectations of de-escalating warfare. U.S. Vice President Vance acknowledged that the monthslong war with Iran and the resulting surge in energy costs were key reasons for the Republican Party’s midterm defeat. Democratic leaders, meanwhile, stated they would leverage Congress to push for an end to the conflict and constrain the Trump administration’s tariff and military policies. With Democrats gaining control over budgets, hearings, and investigative powers, future military appropriations and operations could face stronger headwinds—a primary catalyst prompting traders to swiftly unwind crude oil risk premiums.
However, market bets on a ceasefire may have run ahead of themselves. The new Congress will not be officially seated until January 2027, leaving Trump considerable diplomatic and military maneuverability until then. Even if Democrats can curtail certain military appropriations, the U.S. president retains broad executive authority in ongoing conflicts, and Congress can hardly halt military operations immediately. Trump could currently opt to maintain limited strikes, expedite negotiations, or re-escalate military action against Iran; any of these paths would keep oil prices highly volatile.
Tehran has likewise signaled no clear concessions. Iran warned that shifts in the U.S. domestic political landscape do not necessarily translate into changes in its policy toward Iran, adding that it would mount an even larger-scale response if attacked again. Significant disagreements persist between the U.S. and Iran over the nuclear issue, sanctions relief, the unfreezing of overseas funds, and navigation arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz.
Beyond political factors, global supply outstripping demand once again forms another key narrative driving oil prices lower. JPMorgan estimates that the global oil market saw a daily supply surplus of about 1.1 million barrels in September, which widened further to 1.4 million barrels per day in October, approaching the prior year’s average surplus of 1.3 million barrels per day. This indicates that the market has shifted from destocking to rebuilding inventories, stripping oil prices of the support previously provided by supply deficits.
As transportation gradually resumed in certain regions, Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded from approximately 9.8 million barrels per day in March to about 20.7 million barrels per day. At the same time, Latin American oil supplies have also been climbing. New production from oil-producing nations such as Brazil, Guyana, Argentina, and Venezuela has further expanded the volume of crude available to the global market. JPMorgan’s assessment indicates that the market has transitioned from the previous inventory-depletion phase to re-accumulating stockpiles, meaning that even if Middle Eastern supply has not fully returned to pre-conflict levels, output gains from other regions are partially filling the void.
Source: TradingView
On the daily chart, Brent crude has breached its previous upward trendline and consecutively lost both its 20-day moving average at $107.51 and 60-day moving average at $100.95, recently trading at $94.07. Oil prices have pulled back approximately 20% from their October high of $117.71, with the medium-to-short-term technical structure flipping from bullish to bearish.
Currently, oil prices are testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $93.96. Coinciding with the $94 psychological round-number mark, this level is critical in determining whether the decline will deepen further. If Brent can hold $94, an oversold technical rebound could emerge in the short term, with initial resistance seen at $100–$101; only a decisive reclaim of $106.50–$107.51 would meaningfully alleviate current bearish pressure.
The RSI has dropped to 34.36, well below its signal line at 56.68 and approaching the oversold threshold of 30, signaling that selling momentum remains potent, though the risk of chasing shorts is also mounting. In the near term, even if a rebound occurs, it should still be viewed as a technical correction within a downtrend until oil prices reclaim the 60-day moving average.
If Brent effectively breaks below $93.96 on a daily closing basis, the next support will shift down to $88.36, representing about 6% of further downside from current levels. If $88 is also breached on heavy volume, oil prices could test the 78.6% retracement level at $80.38, with potential downside nearing 15%.
The U.S. dollar fell initially on Wednesday, perhaps in reaction to the elections. However, we have since seen the pair rally, as it aims for a resistance barrier. Ultimately, I am still bullish on the carry trade.
USD/JPY
The U.S. dollar initially did fall during the trading session in reaction, I suspect, to the election result, but has turned around to show signs of life. By doing so, this is a market that continues to see a massive amount of carry trading willing to jump in and take advantage of that ability to get paid at the end of every session.
At this point, it’s worth watching the 159 yen level
At this point, it’s worth watching the 159 yen level as a region that, if we can break above, then we could really take off to the upside. Short-term pullbacks, I think, open up the possibility of buying opportunities, and I do remain bullish on this pair as the Federal Reserve probably has to continue to look to the idea of raising rates in December, while the Japanese may, but even if they do, the interest rate differential is still pretty wide.
We get the jobs number on Friday. That will be a major factor to analyze in this pair as well. If we can break that 159 yen level, the 160 yen level would be the next target. Anything above there could open up a much bigger move, perhaps to the 164 yen level.
If we fall from here, I look at that as a buying opportunity, but if we were to break down below the 156.50 yen level, then I’d have to reassess things. As things stand right now, short-term dips continue to be buying opportunities. This is a market that I will not be looking to short anytime soon, as the markets offer pairs that won’t cost me to short dollars, assuming that I would want to.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
US equities rallied strongly on Wednesday as investors responded to the prospect of divided government and lower energy prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 3.03%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.58% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.44%.
However, gains were uneven across sectors. Technology companies with large cloud businesses advanced, while several AI infrastructure and semiconductor-related stocks came under pressure.
Nvidia fell approximately 3.2% to around US$200 as investors considered the possibility of tighter oversight of data-centre construction and AI infrastructure expansion.
Why Are AI Stocks Under Pressure?
Despite the broader equity recovery, investors remain concerned about the economics of artificial intelligence investment.
Three challenges are becoming increasingly important.
AI infrastructure financing: Technology companies are spending heavily on computing capacity, power infrastructure and data centres. Investors are questioning how quickly those investments will generate sustainable returns.
Regulatory uncertainty: Democratic control of Congress could lead to greater scrutiny of AI development, energy consumption and data-centre expansion.
Valuation pressure: High expectations for AI revenue growth leave technology stocks vulnerable to disappointing earnings or changes in financing conditions.
These concerns could continue to influence the Nasdaq 100 even if the broader equity market remains resilient.
Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Can the Technology Sector Sustain Its Recovery?
The Nasdaq 100 remains one of the most closely watched indices for Australian CFD traders because of its substantial exposure to large US technology companies.
Following the recent market correction, traders should focus on whether the index can establish a sustained recovery supported by broader participation across technology stocks.
A bullish scenario would involve improving semiconductor performance, stabilising Treasury yields and stronger corporate earnings.
A bearish scenario could develop if Nvidia and other AI-related companies continue to weaken, particularly if concerns about infrastructure spending and regulatory restrictions intensify.
Copper futures trade near $6.38 after falling below $6.50, with the longer-term EMA at $6.23.
The first market that I’m looking at is the copper market, and we can see that we did fall pretty significantly to kick off the session, but we’ve turned around as rates have drifted a little bit lower. We got close to the 200-day EMA, which is an indicator that a lot of people will be watching closely.
At this juncture, if we were to turn around and break above the $6.50 level, I still think that is a potential sign that we are going much higher. Copper is something that is, I think, going to continue to move on the latest demand-and-supply type of questions. Right now, we are starting to see more flow out of Chile than we did previously, so that has put a little bit of negativity into pricing.
EUR/GBP has found support above 0.8300, but remains capped below the 0.8365 area.
Market expectations of a BoE rate hike on Thursday are keeping Pound downside attempts limited.
The technical picture shows a fading bearish momentum with bulls still absent.
The Euro (EUR) remains practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, with both currencies appreciating sharply against the US Dollar (USD) following the results of the US midterm elections, but with the GBP buoyed by market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike interest rates on Thursday. Against this background, the EUR/GBP pair remains stuck in a 40-pip range, just above 18-month lows, at 0.8330.
Eurozone preliminary data released on Wednesday revealed that consumer inflation accelerated to three-year highs in October, which adds pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to tighten its monetary policy further in the coming months. These figures have offset a downward revision of October’s HCOB Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures released earlier in the day.
In the UK, all eyes are on the BoE, which is widely expected to raise its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4% on Thursday. The final UK S&P Global Services PMI has also been revised lower, but the impact on the Pound was minimal.
Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP is looking for direction between 0.8320 and 0.8365
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8347 halfway through the last few days’ trading range, between 0.8320 and 0.8365. Momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart are neutral-to-bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (14) nearing the 50 midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) marginally positive. The Doji candles in the daily chart, however, highlight a hesitant market.
Bulls need to breach the October 30 and November 2 highs, near 0.8365 to confirm a deeper correction towards the October 26 high, in the 0.8400 area. On the downside, the area between Tuesday’s low at 0.8330 and the late March 2025 lows at 0.8315 is likely to test bearish attempts. Further down, the February 2025 low, near 0.8250, emerges as a plausible target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.51%
-0.52%
-0.16%
-0.35%
-0.66%
-0.29%
-0.42%
EUR
0.51%
-0.01%
0.34%
0.14%
-0.17%
0.22%
0.09%
GBP
0.52%
0.01%
0.36%
0.17%
-0.13%
0.23%
0.09%
JPY
0.16%
-0.34%
-0.36%
-0.18%
-0.50%
-0.14%
-0.26%
CAD
0.35%
-0.14%
-0.17%
0.18%
-0.31%
0.05%
-0.08%
AUD
0.66%
0.17%
0.13%
0.50%
0.31%
0.36%
0.24%
NZD
0.29%
-0.22%
-0.23%
0.14%
-0.05%
-0.36%
-0.12%
CHF
0.42%
-0.09%
-0.09%
0.26%
0.08%
-0.24%
0.12%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) climbed to a seven-week high around 1.3495 as the US Dollar weakened following the Democrats’ sweep of both chambers of Congress in the midterm elections.
Pound Sterling also drew support from expectations of a Bank of England rate hike on Thursday, with markets now watching whether GBP/USD can break above 1.3500
GBP/USD Forecasts: Hits Seven-Week High
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened sharply on Wednesday as the US Dollar came under pressure following the Democratic sweep in the US midterm elections.
GBP/USD climbed to around 1.3495, its strongest level since mid-September, as investors assessed the implications of Democrats taking control of both the House and Senate.
Sterling also remained supported ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy decision, with markets still expecting a 25 basis-point rate increase to 4.00%.
Scotiabank sees scope for further Dollar losses; “We continue to highlight fundamental downside risk to the USD and DXY, given that it continues to trade well above levels implied by our FV estimate.”
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UoB had also highlighted scope for GBP/USD to extend its advance towards 1.3480, a level that has now been surpassed.
Democratic Sweep Weighs on Dollar
The Dollar weakened after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, creating divided government for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term.
Markets had largely anticipated Democratic gains in the House, but the clean sweep was a more significant outcome than many investors had priced.
The result increases the potential for political gridlock over government funding, debt-ceiling negotiations and elements of the administration’s economic agenda.
It has also increased expectations of tighter congressional scrutiny of the US technology sector.
ING had commented ahead of the results; “Our baseline assumption is that markets fully price in a Republican loss of the House, but only partially a Democratic clean sweep. A blue sweep can put some pressure on the dollar.”
The bank added that tougher regulation could weigh on AI stocks, which has become increasingly important for the Dollar given the close relationship between US technology-sector sentiment and capital inflows.
The Dollar index subsequently slipped as investors reduced exposure to the US currency.
Strong US Jobs Data Limits Dollar Downside
The Dollar’s losses have nevertheless been contained by relatively encouraging US labour-market data.
JOLTS job openings increased to 7.523mn in September from 7.19mn previously, comfortably above consensus forecasts around 7.15mn.
Hiring also increased, while layoffs fell to their lowest level since March 2025.
The stronger figures suggest that the US labour market remains resilient despite relatively weak payroll growth.
Markets continue to price a significant probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again in December.
This should limit the extent of any sustained Dollar sell-off unless incoming inflation and employment data weaken materially.
For Sterling, the immediate focus now turns to Thursday’s Bank of England meeting.
The BoE is widely expected to increase Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike since 2023.
The main market focus will be on the vote split and the Bank’s guidance over how much further tightening may be required in 2027.
A relatively hawkish message could push GBP/USD above 1.3500 and bring the mid-1.35s into focus.
Conversely, if policymakers push back strongly against expectations for three or four further rate hikes next year, Sterling could give back part of its recent gains.
For GBP/USD, 1.3500 is now the immediate resistance area, with 1.3400 providing initial support.
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The pair benefited from recurring positive pressure, driven by Stochastic approaching overbought territory, pushing it to break above the 212.00 resistance level. It recorded some gains yesterday, surging toward 213.00 before staging an intraday pullback, while maintaining its stability above the broken resistance.
Continued positive closes above the current resistance level would give the price an opportunity to achieve further gains toward 213.55, followed by 214.20 in the near term. However, a return to the bearish trend would require a sharp decline, with the price settling below 210.40.
The expected trading range for today is between 211.80 and 213.55
October’s eurozone manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers, eased to 52.7 from 52.9, Reuters reported. A reading above 50 signals improving manufacturing conditions. Operating costs rose at their fastest pace in five months. Export orders strengthened, but overall new-order growth slowed, leaving factories facing higher costs as demand growth lost some pace.
The European Central Bank held rates unchanged on October 29 and kept its approach dependent on incoming data. It said higher energy prices posed upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. That leaves the euro facing an awkward balance: persistent inflation could support more tightening, but higher borrowing costs and weaker demand would weigh on activity. The ECB has not committed to a fixed rate path.
On the 1-hour chart, gold recovered from a base at $3,870 to test resistance at $3,971-$3,982 before profit-taking pushed it back toward $3,923.91. The short-term structure remains range-bound, with liquidity absorption buying continuing to provide support.
The RSI momentum indicator has recovered from oversold territory and is holding around 48-52, signaling that selling pressure has slowed and momentum is returning to balance. However, failure to clear 60 indicates that buying still lacks the force to drive an immediate trend reversal.
Today’s key decision point is a reclaim and close above resistance at $3,971-$3,982. Until then, beware of a bull trap that could allow selling pressure to push price back down to retest the key support base at $3,885-$3,904.
If price holds above $3,885-$3,904 and clears $3,971-$3,982, it could recover toward $4,074-$4,083 and $4,104-$4,115. However, a break below $3,885 would confirm continued selling pressure, with the next supports at $3,829-$3,849 and $3,780-$3,800, respectively.
Today’s Gold Price Outlook
Scenarios
Bull case: If price holds firmly above support at $3,885-$3,904 and buying supports a reclaim above resistance at $3,971-$3,982, it could recover toward $4,074-$4,083 and then $4,104-$4,115.
Bear case: A break below key support at $3,885 would confirm continued selling pressure, with the next correction target at $3,829-$3,849 and the next support base at $3,780-$3,800.
Sideways case: Price consolidates between support at $3,885-$3,904 and resistance at $3,971-$3,982 to absorb selling pressure while awaiting clarity from the U.S. midterm elections and labor-market data later this week.
Today’s Trading Strategy
Short-term traders should trade the range cautiously, waiting to see absorption of selling around support at $3,885-$3,904 before opening positions. Avoid chasing purchases before the first resistance is cleared, and always use a stop loss.
Buy setup: Wait for a pullback to test support at $3,885-$3,904 with clear buying support and a stable RSI, or follow a break above $3,982. Target $4,074-$4,083, with a stop loss below $3,875.
Sell setup: Consider opening a short position when price rebounds to test resistance at $3,971-$3,982 or $4,074-$4,083 and is rejected, or follow a break below $3,885. Target $3,829-$3,849, with a stop loss above resistance.
For long-term investors, structural support from post-midterm historical data remains favorable. Consider accumulating if price tests support bases at $3,829-$3,849 or $3,780-$3,800.
Daily Support and Resistance Levels
Type
Price Level
Support #1
$3,885-$3,904
Support #2
$3,829-$3,849
Support #3
$3,780-$3,800
Resistance #1
$3,971-$3,982
Resistance #2
$4,074-$4,083
Resistance #3
$4,104-$4,115
Today’s Questions (FAQ)
Why did JOLTS job openings surging to 7.52 million pressure gold prices?
JOLTS job openings rising to 7.52 million indicate that the labor market remains strong, supporting expectations that the Fed could raise rates again in December. This lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.95% and strengthened the dollar, increasing opportunity costs and pressuring spot gold down to $3,924.
What factors explain gold’s average 14% gain after U.S. midterm elections?
Fifty-year historical data show that uncertainty tends to ease after midterm elections. If a divided Congress emerges, it can limit borrowing and slow new Treasury issuance, reducing pressure on yields and helping gold rise an average 14% over the following 12 months.
