Fibonacci Confluence Zone in Focus

Nearby targets start with a 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance at $3,927, followed by a swing low from October at $3,886. Additionally, the midline of the descending trend channel cuts through those levels. The midline was just recently tested as support, resulting in a bounce and lower swing high. Its location adds to the potential significance of the support zone from $3,927 to $3,886.

Lower Extension Risk Still in Play

Nevertheless, a bounce from that zone may lead to a setup for a bearish continuation to the next lower 78.6% Fibonacci retracement target of $3,650. The parameters of the falling channel would also suggest that target zone could be reached. One thing is relatively clear. If gold stays below the uptrend line, it remains prone to further declines. Bearish implications from the break below the 200-day moving average in early June have come to pass and the new trendline break signals suggests a continuation of the overall bearish trend.

Resistance Thresholds Define Next Move

However, as noted above, a decisive advance above Wednesday’s high of $4,115 would trigger a daily reversal and recovery of the trendline. Trend resistance near the 20-day moving average, now near $4,248 would then be next in line to be tested as resistance. It is a potential upside barrier confirmed twice during the last two advances. Therefore, a reclaim of that average would provide the first indication that gold may continue to rise from there.

Trendline Boundary Remains the Decisive Line

Ultimately, price action remains defined by the trendline boundary: sustained trading below it keeps the bearish channel intact, while a breakout above it would shift momentum back toward a broader recovery phase.

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Copper price confirmed its commitment to the corrective bearish trend by posting new negative closes below the $6.1000 barrier. The price renews the attempt of pressing on the moving average 55 by its fluctuating around $5.9500, in an attempt to find a chance to resume its decline and target the next support level at $5.7700.

Note that Stochastic continues to fluctuate within oversold levels will increase the negative pressures on the current trading, to reinforce the chances of reaching the previously suggested next target, while the attempt of renewing the bullish attempts requires surpassing $6.3000 level and holding above it.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.7700 and $6.0700

Trend forecast: Bearish

September arabica coffee (KCU26) today is down -3.35 (-1.21%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) is down -2 (-0.05%).

Coffee prices are moving lower today on forecasts for drier weather in Brazil next week, which should allow for the resumption of the country’s coffee harvest. 

Coffee prices have moved higher this week, with robusta posting a 4-month high on Thursday and arabica posting a 7-week high on Wednesday.  Recent heavy rains in Brazil have delayed the country’s coffee harvest, pushing prices higher.  Meteorologist Climatempo said a cold front has supported rainfall over southern Brazil this week, with more than 50 millimeters (2 inches) expected, which has limited field activities and potentially lowered the quality of the coffee crop. 

ICE coffee inventories have trended lower over the past three months, which is also supportive of coffee prices.  ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.25-year low of 385,191 bags on Thursday. Meanwhile, ICE robusta inventories fell to a 2-year low of 3,631 lots on May 15 but jumped to a 2.25-month high of 4,032 lots last Thursday.

Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. 

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates an 67% probability of a “Super El Niño” this year that could be the strongest on record.  On June 10, the Japan Meteorological Agency confirmed an El Niño weather pattern had formed across the equatorial Pacific.  This sets the stage for months of floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America. 

On June 9, arabica coffee fell to a 19-month nearest-futures low, and robusta slid to a 2-month low, amid an outlook for a bumper coffee crop in Brazil this year.  On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.  Also, Rabobank raised its 2026/27 global arabica coffee surplus estimate to 9.5 million bags from 7.0 million bags previously.  Meanwhile, Cecafe reported June 11 that Brazil’s May green coffee exports rose +4.2% y/y to 2.73 million bags.

Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices.  On June 2, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-May) rose by +7.9% y/y to 922,000 MT.  Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).

As a bearish factor, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (Oct-Sep) fell -0.3% y/y to 138.658 million bags.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) bi-annual report on December 18 projected that world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by +2.0% y/y to a record 178.848 million bags, with a -4.7% decrease in arabica production to 95.515 million bags and a +10.9% increase in robusta production to 83.333 million bags.  FAS forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will decline by -3.1% y/y to 63 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.2% y/y to a 4-year high of 30.8 million bags. FAS forecasts that 2025/26 ending stocks will fall by -5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25.

On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

No new for Platinum price since yesterday’s trading, keeping its negative stability near $1570.00 level, attempting to gather extra negative momentum, to ease the mission of resuming the negative trend by targeting $1515.00 level, reaching the main support at $1440.00.

Note that stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level might force the price to delay the bearish trend and providing some corrective waves by its rally towards $1640.00, however, it will not affect the main bearish scenario, depending on forming an initial resistance at $1745.00 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $1515.00 and $1630.00

Trend forecast: Bearish