The GBPJPY pair succeeded in surpassing the negative pressures by providing several positive closes above the key support near 210.65, activating with stochastic positivity and forming positive rally, to settle near 213.60.
The stability of the trading above 212.50 level is important to reinforce the dominance of the bullish trend, to expect targeting 214.10 level, as providing bullish momentum makes the trading extend towards the next target near 214.85.
The expected trading range for today is between 212.65 and 214.10
The CHFJPY succeeded in surpassing the negative pressures by providing several positive closes above 192.40 support, activating with stochastic positivity and recording several gains by its rally towards 195.65.
Forming extra support at 194.60 level and providing positive momentum makes us expect to form bullish waves, to attempt to reach 196.40, attacking the barrier near 197.65, which represents a confirmation key for the upcoming trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 195.00 and 196.40
EUR/JPY rises after registering losses in the previous day, trading around 183.10 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross is holding a capped tone as it sits below the 50-day Exponential moving average (EMA) while clinging to short-term support at the nine-day EMA. This configuration suggests a corrective phase within the broader uptrend, with sellers retaining the upper hand while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44 hints at still-soft but stabilizing bearish momentum after the recent slide.
Yen positioning shift seen as response to Japan intervention
Strategists at Societe Generale argue that the recent positioning adjustment in the Yen futures market is being driven primarily by official action rather than a genuine change in sentiment. They highlight that the sharp drop in speculative exposure, with the “collapse in Short Yen CFTC positions to 10.8%,” is “a reflection of MoF intervention, not a reflection of greater optimism that the currency has fundamentally turned.”
A pullback below the nine-day EMA at 183.06 would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3, followed by the nine-month low of 175.70.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could find initial resistance at the 50-day EMA at 184.57. Further advances above the medium-term moving average would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.01%
-0.00%
0.43%
0.07%
0.00%
0.06%
0.02%
EUR
-0.01%
-0.02%
0.40%
0.04%
-0.01%
0.03%
0.00%
GBP
0.00%
0.02%
0.43%
0.06%
0.03%
0.05%
0.02%
JPY
-0.43%
-0.40%
-0.43%
-0.39%
-0.46%
-0.44%
-0.43%
CAD
-0.07%
-0.04%
-0.06%
0.39%
-0.13%
0.00%
-0.07%
AUD
-0.00%
0.01%
-0.03%
0.46%
0.13%
0.03%
0.02%
NZD
-0.06%
-0.03%
-0.05%
0.44%
-0.00%
-0.03%
-0.02%
CHF
-0.02%
-0.01%
-0.02%
0.43%
0.07%
-0.02%
0.02%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Platinum price failed to resume the bullish trend after facing the resistance near $1785.00, keeping its stability below the moving average 55, by its fluctuation near $1745.00 level as appears in the above image.
The contradiction of the main indicators and the stability of the resistance will increase the chances of renewing the negative attempts, which might target $1685.00 and $1642.00 level, while breaking above the resistance level and holding above it will open the way for reaching new bullish stations that might begin at $1825.00 and $1870.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1700.00 and $1790.00
Silver (XAG/USD) is pressing against a key resistance zone near $63.30 as of this analysis, with buyers showing renewed conviction to push the precious metal to fresh highs. The ongoing challenge of this level suggests a potential breakout, though traders remain cautious ahead of broader market catalysts.
Why the $63.30 Level Matters
The $63.30 area has emerged as a critical technical barrier for silver, representing a confluence of prior swing highs and psychological round-number resistance. Bulls have repeatedly tested this zone over the past sessions, but each attempt has met with selling pressure. A decisive close above this level could open the door to the next upside targets, while repeated failures may signal a period of consolidation.
From a technical perspective, the recent price action shows higher lows on the intraday charts, indicating that buyers are stepping in at higher levels. This pattern, combined with positive momentum indicators, suggests that the path of least resistance is to the upside. However, volume and volatility remain key factors to watch, as a breakout without sufficient participation could prove false.
Market Drivers Behind the Silver Rally
Silver’s strength is being supported by a combination of factors, including a softer U.S. dollar, rising industrial demand, and shifting expectations around global monetary policy. As of mid-2025, the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates has become a major driver for precious metals, with any hint of easing typically boosting non-yielding assets like silver.
Additionally, silver’s dual role as both a precious and industrial metal has made it a beneficiary of the global push toward green technologies. Solar panels, electric vehicles, and 5G infrastructure all rely heavily on silver, creating a structural demand backdrop that continues to attract long-term investors.
What a Breakout Could Mean for Traders
If silver manages to close above $63.30 on a daily basis, the next resistance levels to watch would be around $65.00 and then the psychological $70.00 mark. Traders often use such breakouts to enter long positions, with stop-loss orders placed below the breakout level to manage risk. Conversely, a failure to break higher could lead to a pullback toward the $60.00 support zone, where buyers may find renewed interest.
Conclusion
Silver is at a pivotal juncture, with the $63.30 resistance level acting as the focal point for bulls and bears alike. While the technical setup favors an eventual breakout, traders should remain vigilant about external factors such as U.S. economic data and geopolitical developments that could influence the metal’s direction. A confirmed breakout would likely attract additional momentum buying, while a rejection could prompt a near-term correction.
FAQs
Q1: What is the current silver price forecast? As of this analysis, silver (XAG/USD) is testing resistance at $63.30. If bulls break above this level, the next targets are $65.00 and $70.00. Failure to break could lead to a pullback toward $60.00.
Q2: Why is silver rallying? Silver is benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar, strong industrial demand (especially from green technologies), and expectations of potential Fed rate cuts, which make precious metals more attractive.
Q3: What are the key resistance and support levels for silver? Key resistance is at $63.30, followed by $65.00 and $70.00. On the downside, support is seen at $60.00, with additional support near $58.00.
Exchange Rates UK Research’s latest August 2026 survey of major investment banks points to a mixed near-term Pound-to-Dollar outlook followed by a stronger median forecast through 2027.
With GBP/USD currently around 1.3492, the median bank forecast stands at 1.33 for Q3 2026, around 1.34 for Q4, 1.35 for Q1 2027 and 1.36 for Q2. It then rises to 1.37 in Q3 and around 1.39 by Q4 2027.
The headline finding is therefore relatively straightforward: banks collectively see limited upside for sterling immediately, but the median projection eventually moves above today’s exchange rate and favours a stronger pound during 2027.
The full fx forecast range is considerably wider, extending from roughly 1.27 to 1.45 across 2027.
View full sizeImage: GBP/USD bank forecast consensus range: median, central 50% and full provider range by quarter, August 2026.
Latest Survey Shows GBP/USD Median Rising Through 2027
The latest Exchange Rates UK Research poll includes forecasts from 25 major banks and institutions for the nearer quarters, and the dispersion of views is almost as important as the median.
For Q3 2026, forecasts range between 1.30 and 1.38, with the median around 1.33 sitting below spot.
By Q2 2027, however, the median has climbed to 1.36, followed by around 1.37 in Q3 and close to 1.39 in Q4.
The bullish camp includes Bank of America, which forecasts GBP/USD at 1.40 in Q2 2027, 1.43 in Q3 and 1.45 by year-end. UBS sees 1.41 by Q2, while ABN AMRO reaches 1.40 by the end of 2027.
Scotiabank, TD Economics, CIBC and Westpac also envisage sterling strengthening into the upper 1.30s.
The bearish tail is substantial.
HSBC forecasts GBP/USD falling to 1.27 by Q2 2027, while Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan both have projections reaching 1.28. Citi maintains a prolonged low-1.30s profile.
This means the consensus should not be interpreted as banks uniformly expecting sterling appreciation. Rather, the centre of the distribution gradually moves higher while disagreement over the eventual destination remains unusually large.
US Jobs Shock Adds Another Variable to the Dollar Outlook
The survey arrives after an important change in the US macro picture.
July’s US employment report delivered a surprise decline in non-farm payrolls, while earlier months were revised lower. The weaker labour-market picture knocked the dollar and forced markets to reassess the likely path of Federal Reserve policy.
That provides some fundamental support for the more bullish GBP/USD forecasts in the survey: a weaker US labour market could eventually reduce the interest-rate support enjoyed by the dollar.
There is nevertheless a strong counterargument. US inflation pressures have not disappeared, leaving the Federal Reserve balancing a softer labour market against persistent price risks.
The UK picture is similarly nuanced.
Sterling’s outlook remains sensitive to the balance between UK inflation, economic growth and the Bank of England’s policy stance.
Changes in expectations for the relative paths of UK and US interest rates could therefore remain one of the most important drivers of GBP/USD over the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
The latest Exchange Rates UK Research survey does not point towards an immediate Pound-to-Dollar breakout.
Its Q3 median around 1.33 implies some downside from current levels near 1.35, while the Q4 median sits much closer to today’s exchange rate.
The picture becomes more constructive further ahead.
Median forecasts around 1.36, 1.37 and 1.39 through 2027 suggest investment banks collectively expect the balance to shift gradually in sterling’s favour.
For anyone with longer-term exposure to GBP/USD, however, the unusually broad forecast range deserves attention.
By late 2027, individual projections stretch from around 1.30 to 1.45.
The difference reflects sharply contrasting assumptions about Federal Reserve policy, US inflation and growth, and whether sterling can maintain sufficient interest-rate and economic support.
The median points towards a higher GBP/USD exchange rate over time.
The breadth of the latest bank forecasts suggests getting there could be anything but straightforward.
UK analysts expect EUR/GBP to move higher as fading BoE rate-hike bets and autumn Budget concerns expose the Pound Sterling to renewed selling pressure.
The Euro to Pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP) held near 0.8580 on Thursday, with Rabobank favouring further gains as the summer draws to a close.
EUR/GBP has recovered from July’s low near 0.8455 after Sterling’s earlier rally ran out of steam.
The pair fell 0.72% last month, but has since climbed for three consecutive sessions and is up around 0.27% in August.
Rabobank notes that the Pound is now the third-worst performing G10 currency over one month, ahead of only the Swiss Franc and US Dollar.
“This performance may in part be a function of pared-back expectations regarding BoE rate hikes,” the bank said.
It may also reflect a measured response to the new UK government. Political news is likely to remain limited while Parliament is in recess, but attention is already turning towards Chancellor Healey’s October 28 Budget.
EUR/GBP has rebounded from below 0.8470 and is now testing the upper end of its August range.
Prime Minister Burnham has promised growth across the country while remaining within the existing fiscal rules and avoiding tax increases on workers. The unresolved issue is how the government intends to pay for its plans.
“Some news regarding the forthcoming budget has been seeping out and this could be setting up both the gilts market and GBP for friction into the autumn,” Rabobank said.
The government is reportedly considering a more flexible definition of infrastructure spending and equity investments as assets, potentially creating another £9bn of room.
While markets may tolerate extra borrowing if it funds credible growth projects, Rabobank warns that it would still imply greater Gilt issuance, which “could weigh on gilts prices and unsettle the pound”.
EUR/GBP Outlook: Rabobank Targets a Break Above 0.8588
Monetary policy presents a second downside risk for Sterling.
Rabobank believes markets continue to overestimate the likelihood of another Bank of England rate hike this year, particularly if energy prices ease as geopolitical tensions cool.
“Although three members of the MPC voted to hike rates at the July policy meeting, we anticipate that there is a high bar to further members moving camps,” the bank said.
Governor Bailey has highlighted slower services inflation, weaker household demand and a looser labour market as reasons to expect inflation pressure to fade.
“These arguments indicate a strong reluctance by Bailey to tighten policy,” Rabobank said. “In our view, the Bank is likely to keep interest rates on hold for the remainder of the year.”
The latest bank consensus shows median EUR/GBP forecasts rising above current levels into late 2026 and 2027.
Rabobank expects a repricing towards unchanged Bank Rate, combined with pre-Budget nervousness, to put the Pound under pressure.
“We favour buying EUR/GBP on dips to the 0.8550 area,” the bank said. “A break above the recent high in the 0.8588 region could increase upside potential.”
The immediate range remains tight, but the balance of risks is shifting. Sterling’s rate support is fading just as the UK’s fiscal debate starts to return.
Crude oil price jumped for the third consecutive day, with Brent hitting a high of $83.75, up by 7.30% from its lowest level this week. This rebound happened after China boosted its oil purchases and after Iran published details of the Strait of Hormuz reopening.
China boosts oil purchases
One reason why crude oil prices have not surged during the US-Iran war is that China has largely stayed away from the market.
Now, however, there are signs that Beijing is starting to buy oil again as its strategic petroleum reserves falls. Data released today showed that pipeline and seaborne flows jumped to 35.73 million tons in July, up by 22% from a month earlier.
It imported about 8.45 million barrels of crude oil per day. While this is much lower than it used to import before the war, there is a possibility that Beijing will increase its purchases later this year.
Such a move will lead to more oil demand as the country rushes to fill its strategic petroleum reserves. This is important because China is the biggest importers of crude oil in the world.
Iran shares details of its deal with Oman
Crude oil price is also rising as investors react to the details of the Iran-Oman deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. One notable part of the deal is that the two sides will not charge a toll for now.
However, Iran will control inbound traffic, while Oman will control the outbound one. As part of the agreement, Iran has insisted that it will not allow U.S and Israeli ships from transiting the strait. Also, countries that have harmed Iran will not be allowed to pass through the Strait until a compensation plan is made. Iran plans to impose a 20% fee for these countries.
It is unclear whether the Trump administration will endorse the deal. Also, it is unclear whether Trump will end the blockade it has placed on Iran. What is clear, however, is that the Strait of Hormuz will not go back to how it used to be in the future.
In the long-term, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will invest heavily on pipelines to avoid the Strait. Indeed, the UAE has said that it will be independent of the Strait in the coming years.
Meanwhile, Houthis have continued to attack Saudi Arabian ships and troops. They attacked a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea, off the coast from the Yanbu export terminal. An escalation could have an impact on oil prices.
Most notably, the US and Iran have not yet reached a ceasefire agreement, meaning that the war may resume at any time. Iran may also use the latest reports on US weapons to restart the war and put more pressure on Trump. https://twitter.com/mb_ghalibaf/status/2085433285602136467
Brent crude oil price forecast
Crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that Brent crude price peaked at $101.9 in July and then plunged to a low of $78.30 as Trump and Iran restarted their war. Recently, it bounced back to $83.70, which coincides with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
The price has moved above the Ultimate Support of the Murrey Math Lines level of $75. Therefore, the price will likely continue rising in the near term, potentially to the Major S/R pivot point of $100. A drop below the support of $78 will invalidate the bullish outlook.
Gold prices extended their upward move on Thursday, with XAU/USD trading firmer as bulls target the $4,380 area, according to the latest technical outlook. The precious metal has shown resilience amid mixed economic signals, and market participants are closely watching key resistance levels.
What’s Driving the Gold Rally?
The current rally in gold is underpinned by a combination of factors, including persistent geopolitical uncertainties, central bank buying, and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy stance from major central banks. As of this week, spot gold has gained momentum, breaking above previous consolidation ranges. Traders are now focusing on whether the bulls can sustain the push toward the $4,380 level, which represents a significant psychological and technical barrier.
From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that gold has formed a series of higher lows, indicating strong buying interest on dips. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in bullish territory but is not yet overbought, suggesting room for further upside. A clear break above the $4,380 area could open the door for a test of the next resistance zone, while failure to do so might lead to a short-term pullback toward support levels.
Market Context and Implications
The broader market context remains supportive for gold, as real yields stay low and inflation concerns persist in several economies. Additionally, central banks, particularly in emerging markets, have been diversifying their reserves into gold, providing a solid demand base. This backdrop has attracted both institutional and retail investors looking for a safe-haven asset amid volatility in equity markets and currency fluctuations.
For traders, the key levels to watch are the immediate support at $4,300, followed by the $4,250 zone, which could act as a buffer in case of a correction. On the upside, a sustained move above $4,380 would confirm the bullish momentum and could lead to accelerated buying, potentially pushing prices toward the $4,420–$4,450 region. However, market participants should remain cautious, as any unexpected economic data or policy shift could quickly alter the outlook.
Why This Matters to Investors
Understanding the gold price forecast is crucial for investors who use gold as a hedge against inflation or currency depreciation. The current rally reflects a broader trend of risk aversion and portfolio diversification. If gold breaks above $4,380, it could signal further gains, making it an opportune time for investors to review their positions. Conversely, a rejection at this level might suggest a consolidation phase, prompting a more cautious approach.
Conclusion
Gold’s rally continues to gain traction, with bulls eyeing the $4,380 level as the next major target. While the technical and fundamental backdrop remains supportive, traders should monitor key economic releases and geopolitical developments for potential volatility. A clear breakout above $4,380 could confirm the bullish trend, but until then, caution is advised.
FAQs
Q1: What is the current gold price target? The current upside target for XAU/USD is the $4,380 area, as per the latest technical analysis. This level represents a key resistance zone that bulls are aiming to break.
Q2: What factors are driving the gold rally? The rally is driven by geopolitical uncertainties, central bank buying, and expectations of looser monetary policy. Low real yields and inflation concerns also support gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Q3: What happens if gold fails to break $4,380? If gold fails to break above $4,380, it could lead to a short-term pullback toward support levels at $4,300 or $4,250. Traders may then look for a consolidation pattern before the next directional move.
The euro is finding renewed strength against the US dollar as markets increase bets on a more hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) policy path, with traders pricing in a higher likelihood of rate hikes in the coming months. This shift in expectations is providing fresh upside momentum for the EUR/USD currency pair, which has been trading in a range but now appears poised for a breakout.
Why Hawkish ECB Bets Are Supporting the Euro
The core driver behind the euro’s recent resilience is the market’s growing conviction that the ECB will maintain a tighter monetary policy stance compared to earlier expectations. Recent comments from several ECB policymakers have signaled a willingness to continue raising interest rates to combat persistent inflation in the eurozone, even as the region’s economic growth shows signs of slowing. This contrasts with the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to pause its rate hiking cycle, creating a policy divergence that favors the euro.
According to money market pricing, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the ECB’s next meeting has risen sharply over the past week. This repricing has been fueled by stronger-than-expected inflation data from key eurozone economies, particularly Germany and France, which have shown that price pressures remain sticky. As a result, the yield differential between German and US government bonds has narrowed, making euro-denominated assets more attractive to investors.
Technical Levels to Watch in EUR/USD
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has been building a base above the 1.0800 support level, with the pair now attempting to break above its 200-day moving average. A sustained move above this key indicator could open the door for a test of the 1.1000 psychological level, which has acted as resistance in recent months. On the downside, the 1.0700 area remains a critical support zone, and a break below that could signal a bearish reversal.
Traders are also watching the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has been hovering around the 50 mark, indicating a neutral momentum. However, a clear break above 60 would suggest that bullish momentum is building. The recent price action suggests that the market is positioning for a potential upside breakout, with the pair having formed a series of higher lows since early March.
Market Implications and What to Watch
For traders and investors, the key takeaway is that the EUR/USD pair is at a pivotal juncture. The combination of hawkish ECB expectations and a softer US dollar is creating a supportive environment for the euro. However, the pair’s direction will largely depend on upcoming economic data and central bank communications. The next major test will be the release of the eurozone’s flash CPI data for May, which is due in the coming days. A hot reading could cement expectations of further ECB tightening and push the pair higher.
Additionally, the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, scheduled for release this week, could provide further clarity on the US rate outlook. If the minutes reveal a more dovish tone, it would likely weigh on the dollar and provide additional support for EUR/USD. Conversely, any surprises in the data could lead to increased volatility.
Conclusion
In summary, the EUR/USD pair is being supported by a shift in market sentiment towards a more hawkish ECB, which is backing fresh upside in the exchange rate. While the technical picture suggests a potential breakout, the pair’s trajectory will be heavily influenced by upcoming economic data and central bank communications. Traders should remain cautious and monitor key levels and events to navigate the evolving landscape.
FAQs
Q1: What is driving the EUR/USD forecast? The EUR/USD forecast is being driven by increasing market bets that the European Central Bank will maintain a hawkish policy stance, with rate hikes expected, while the Federal Reserve is seen as more likely to pause. This policy divergence is supporting the euro.
Q2: What are the key technical levels to watch in EUR/USD? Key technical levels include the 1.0800 support, the 200-day moving average around 1.0850, and the 1.1000 resistance level. A break above the 200-day MA could signal further upside, while a drop below 1.0700 would be bearish.
Q3: How does ECB policy affect the euro? ECB policy directly influences the euro’s value through interest rates. When the ECB signals higher rates or maintains a hawkish stance, it makes euro-denominated assets more attractive, potentially strengthening the euro against other currencies like the US dollar.
