Price movements in platinum are often sharper than gold or silver due to its limited availability and reliance on a few global mining regions. Automotive regulations, global production levels, and technology usage influence the platinum price today. As platinum becomes more relevant in clean energy applications, its daily rate has gained importance for both buyers and investors.
Silver (XAG/USD) is up over 2.5% to near $70.00 during the early European trading session on Friday. The white metal gains sharply, but is still inside Thursday’s trading range, indicating that the broader trend is sideways.
The white metal is expected to trade with caution amid growing doubts over hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East war. Comments from peace talks mediators that Tehran had not requested a pause on Washington’s planned military attacks on Iran’s energy plants, as reported by the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), have voiced concerns over the credibility of United States (US) President Donald Trump’s claims that he ordered the postponement of attacks as per Iran’s request.
Late Thursday, US President Trump announced through a post on Truth.Social that, as per the Iranian request, he has paused his plans of obliterating Iranian energy plants by 10 days to Monday, April 6, 2026, at 8 P.M. Eastern Time.
Signs of fading de-escalation in Middle East conflicts are expected to remain as a key drag on the Silver price, assuming that the longer the conflicts last, the stronger the odds that oil prices could rise further.
Higher oil prices have already raised consumer inflation expectations, a scenario that restricts global central banks from easing monetary conditions, which in turn diminishes demand for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver price struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Friday and oscillates in a narrow trading band just above the $68.00 mark. Meanwhile, the technical setup suggests the path of least resistance for the white metal remains to the downside and backs the case for an extension of the recent downfall witnessed over the past four weeks or so, from the monthly swing high.
The recent breakdown below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) – for the first time since April 2025 – was seen as a key trigger for the XAG/USD bears. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below the zero line with its latest values negative, reinforcing downside momentum despite some recent flattening. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-30s, indicating weak momentum rather than outright oversold conditions and leaving room for further downside if sellers press the move.
Hence, any meaningful recovery attempt is likely to confront immediate resistance near the 100-day SMA, around $74.70. A daily close above this area would ease bearish pressure and open the way toward the $80.00 region as the next upside hurdle. On the downside, initial support is located at the recent low near $67.80, where a break would expose the mid-$60.00 zone as the next demand area in line with the broader moving-average-supported trend.
A sustained defense of $67.80 would keep the current pullback contained, while repeated failures below the 100-day SMA would maintain the focus on lower supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market on March 28 had a slight adjustment. Purchasing agents in the Central Highlands region have lowered prices by 500 – 700 VND/kg, causing the price level to slightly retreat from the 96,000 VND/kg mark just established earlier. This adjustment is considered a late reaction after the weekend declines of the world exchange.
Specific fluctuations in localities:
Dak Lak, Gia Lai and Dak Nong (old): Simultaneously reduced by 500 VND, currently purchasing at 95,500 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: Recorded a decrease of 700 VND, currently the transaction price here reaches 94,800 VND/kg.
World coffee prices
In this morning’s session, international exchanges have not yet had new updates due to being on holiday, listed prices are still anchored at the closing level of last Friday’s session.
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 delivery is currently at 3,624 USD/ton. Robusta is under pressure from Rabobank’s forecast report that world output in the 2026/27 crop year will reach a record 180 million sacks, an increase of about 8 million sacks compared to the previous crop year. In addition, Vietnam’s exports in January increased sharply by 38.3% compared to the same period, continuing to put pressure on the recovery momentum.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): Closing the weekend session at 280.75 cents/lb. Pressure on the Arabica exchange comes from inventory on the ICE exchange continuing to recover to a 4-month high of 466,055 bags. In addition, the weather situation in Brazil is still very positive as rainfall in the Minas Gerais region reached 138% of the historical average, promising a bumper crop.
Market opinion
The coffee market is entering a sensitive phase as forecasts for Brazil’s upcoming record crop year (66.2 million bags for 2026) are still the main factor dominating investor sentiment. However, Colombia’s 34% production decline in January and a decrease in export reports from Brazil are also contributing to curbing the deep decline.
It is predicted that in the coming sessions, domestic coffee prices will continue to struggle to establish a new bottom around the threshold of 94,500 – 96,000 VND/kg. Due to the abundant prospects of long-term supply, speculative funds tend to liquidate buy positions to take profits, making it difficult for prices to rebound sharply immediately. Farmers should closely monitor developments from major consumer countries and the actual export situation to have appropriate sales plans in March.
Note: The actual coffee price may vary depending on each purchasing area and grain quality.
At 9 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil was priced at $107.81 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (we’ll explain different benchmarks later in this article). That’s a gain of $1.96 compared with yesterday morning and around $34 higher than the price one year ago.
It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.
Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.
Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”
In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.
It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.
Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.
To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:
Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:
All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.
Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
The price of oil updates constantly when the “futures” markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.
In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy we’ll have—and the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.
When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but it’s also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as it’s more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.
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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Keeps Pair Firmly Above 184.00 as Buying Pressure Surges
The EUR/JPY currency pair maintains its position above the critical 184.00 level as sustained buying pressure continues to dominate market sentiment across global trading sessions. Market analysts observe this development during European trading hours on March 15, 2025, noting the pair’s resilience despite broader market volatility. Technical charts reveal consistent upward momentum, while fundamental factors provide additional support for the current price trajectory. Consequently, traders monitor key resistance levels as the cross-pair demonstrates remarkable stability in the current economic environment.
Technical indicators consistently signal strength for the EUR/JPY pair across multiple timeframes. The daily chart shows the currency pair maintaining its position above the 184.00 psychological level for seven consecutive sessions. Moreover, the 50-day moving average provides dynamic support around 183.50, creating a solid foundation for further upward movement. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at 62, indicating bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, trading volume shows a 15% increase compared to the previous week, confirming genuine buying interest rather than speculative positioning.
Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing low to high reveal important technical information. Specifically, the 61.8% retracement level at 183.80 aligns with current support, while the 78.6% extension at 185.20 represents the next significant resistance. Furthermore, Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows price action trading above the cloud on both daily and four-hour charts. This configuration typically suggests a strong bullish trend with minimal immediate reversal signals. Bollinger Bands also demonstrate expanding width, indicating increased volatility and potential for continued directional movement.
Traders currently monitor several critical price levels that could influence future EUR/JPY movement. Immediate support rests at 184.00, followed by stronger support at 183.50 where multiple technical indicators converge. On the resistance side, 184.80 presents the first significant barrier, with 185.50 representing a more substantial challenge based on previous price action. Market participants particularly watch the 185.00 psychological level, as breaking above this point could trigger additional algorithmic buying and momentum-based entries.
| Support Levels | Resistance Levels | Indicator Status |
|---|---|---|
| 184.00 (Psychological) | 184.80 (Recent High) | RSI: 62 (Bullish) |
| 183.50 (50-day MA) | 185.00 (Psychological) | MACD: Positive |
| 183.00 (Trendline) | 185.50 (Previous Peak) | Volume: Increasing |
Multiple fundamental factors contribute to the current EUR/JPY price dynamics and sustained buying pressure. The European Central Bank maintains a relatively hawkish stance compared to the Bank of Japan, creating favorable interest rate differentials. Specifically, the ECB’s latest policy statements suggest continued vigilance against inflation, while the BOJ maintains ultra-accommodative policies. This divergence in monetary policy directly supports Euro strength against the Japanese Yen. Additionally, improving economic data from the Eurozone provides fundamental backing for currency appreciation.
Recent economic indicators reveal important developments affecting both currencies. Eurozone manufacturing PMI data shows expansion for the third consecutive month, reaching 52.3 in the latest reading. Conversely, Japanese export growth has moderated despite Yen weakness, raising questions about the sustainability of current BOJ policies. Furthermore, energy price stability benefits the Eurozone’s trade balance while posing challenges for Japan’s import-dependent economy. These macroeconomic conditions collectively create an environment conducive to EUR/JPY appreciation.
Monetary policy divergence represents the primary fundamental driver for current EUR/JPY movement. The European Central Bank continues to emphasize data-dependent approaches, with several governing council members expressing concerns about persistent service inflation. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan maintains negative interest rates and yield curve control, though market participants increasingly speculate about potential policy normalization. This policy gap creates what analysts term a “carry trade favorable environment,” where investors borrow in low-yielding Yen to purchase higher-yielding Euro-denominated assets.
Market sentiment toward EUR/JPY remains predominantly bullish according to recent Commitment of Traders reports and sentiment surveys. Institutional positioning data reveals net long positions increasing by 18% over the past month, reaching their highest level since November 2024. Retail trader sentiment, however, shows more mixed signals with approximately 45% of positions favoring further upside. This divergence between institutional and retail positioning often precedes sustained trends, as institutional capital typically demonstrates greater staying power during market movements.
Options market activity provides additional insight into trader expectations and risk assessment. Implied volatility for EUR/JPY options has increased moderately, suggesting growing uncertainty about near-term direction despite the prevailing uptrend. Risk reversals, which measure the difference between call and put option prices, show continued preference for Euro calls over Yen calls. This options market structure indicates that while traders anticipate potential volatility, the bias remains toward Euro strength rather than Yen recovery in the medium term.
Analysis of trader positioning reveals distinct behavioral patterns between institutional and retail participants. Large speculators, including hedge funds and asset managers, have increased their net long positions to approximately 85,000 contracts according to the latest CFTC data. Meanwhile, retail traders through major platforms show more cautious positioning with only 52% of accounts holding long positions. This institutional conviction, when combined with favorable fundamentals and technicals, often provides strong confirmation for trend continuation rather than reversal scenarios.
The current EUR/JPY price action occurs within a broader historical context that provides valuable perspective for market participants. The pair previously traded above 184.00 during the third quarter of 2023 before retreating to support around 175.00. Historical volatility analysis shows current price movements remain within one standard deviation of the five-year average, suggesting sustainable rather than extreme market conditions. Additionally, correlation analysis reveals EUR/JPY maintains approximately 0.75 correlation with global equity markets, particularly European indices, which have shown resilience in recent sessions.
Comparative analysis with other Yen crosses provides additional market intelligence. The USD/JPY pair shows similar strength, trading near 152.00, while GBP/JPY approaches 190.00. This broad-based Yen weakness suggests the current EUR/JPY movement reflects more than just Euro strength, indicating genuine Yen depreciation across multiple currency pairs. Furthermore, the correlation between EUR/JPY and global risk sentiment remains elevated, with the pair typically appreciating during periods of market optimism and declining during risk-off episodes.
Several risk factors could potentially disrupt the current EUR/JPY uptrend despite strong technical and fundamental support. Geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe and Asia represent primary external risks, as escalation could trigger safe-haven flows into the Japanese Yen. Additionally, unexpected shifts in central bank communication could alter interest rate expectations, particularly if the Bank of Japan signals earlier-than-expected policy normalization. Domestic political developments in both currency regions also warrant monitoring, as fiscal policy changes could influence currency valuations.
Economic data releases scheduled for the coming weeks present immediate catalysts for potential EUR/JPY volatility. Eurozone inflation data on March 20 will provide crucial information about ECB policy trajectory, while Japanese wage growth figures on March 22 could influence BOJ normalization timing. Furthermore, global risk sentiment remains sensitive to developments in equity markets and commodity prices, particularly energy. Traders should therefore maintain awareness of these potential catalysts while managing position sizes appropriate to their risk tolerance.
Market participants should closely monitor several upcoming economic events that could impact EUR/JPY direction. The European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting on April 10 represents the next major scheduled event, though any interim commentary from policymakers could generate volatility. Japanese spring wage negotiations conclude in mid-March, with results potentially influencing BOJ policy decisions. Additionally, global PMI data releases at month-end will provide updated information about economic growth differentials between the Eurozone and Japan.
The EUR/JPY price forecast remains bullish as the pair maintains its position above the critical 184.00 level with rising buying pressure. Technical analysis reveals strong chart patterns supporting continued upward momentum, while fundamental factors including central bank policy divergence provide additional tailwinds. Market sentiment, particularly among institutional traders, favors further Euro strength against the Japanese Yen. However, traders should remain vigilant regarding potential risk factors and scheduled economic catalysts that could introduce volatility. The overall outlook suggests the EUR/JPY pair will likely test higher resistance levels in the coming sessions, provided current market conditions persist.
Q1: What is the main reason for EUR/JPY staying above 184.00?
The primary driver is sustained buying pressure from institutional investors capitalizing on interest rate differentials between the Eurozone and Japan, combined with favorable technical chart patterns.
Q2: How does Bank of Japan policy affect EUR/JPY?
The BOJ’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy, including negative interest rates and yield curve control, weakens the Japanese Yen relative to currencies from economies with higher interest rates like the Euro.
Q3: What technical indicators support the bullish EUR/JPY forecast?
Key indicators include price above all major moving averages, RSI in bullish territory without being overbought, positive MACD crossover, and trading volume confirming buying interest.
Q4: What are the key resistance levels for EUR/JPY above 184.00?
Immediate resistance sits at 184.80, followed by psychological resistance at 185.00, with stronger resistance around 185.50 based on previous price action and technical extensions.
Q5: What risks could cause EUR/JPY to fall below 184.00?
Potential risks include unexpected Bank of Japan policy normalization signals, geopolitical escalation triggering safe-haven Yen flows, or weaker-than-expected Eurozone economic data altering ECB policy expectations.
This post EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Keeps Pair Firmly Above 184.00 as Buying Pressure Surges first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
Oil price today: Brent crude closed at $112.57 per barrel (+4.22%) and WTI surged 5.46% to $99.64 — briefly touching $100.04 intraday — as of Friday, March 28, 2026, the highest levels since July 2022. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi declared that “no negotiations have happened with the enemy until now, and we do not plan on any negotiations,” while Iran has begun operating a yuan-based “toll booth” system at the Strait of Hormuz — allowing select Chinese, Russian, and allied vessels to transit while collecting fees in Chinese yuan. The Strait has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since March 2, disrupting approximately 17.8 million barrels per day of oil flows. Goldman Sachs estimates a $14–18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium baked into current prices. Trump has extended the deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait to April 6, 2026.
Brent: $112.57
▲ $4.56 (+4.22%)
WTI Crude (NYMEX)
$99.64 (+5.46%)
Brent-WTI Spread
$12.93
WTI Session High
$100.04 (crossed $100)
Brent 1-Month Change
+$36.57 (+51.3%)
Brent 1-Year Change
+$33.91 (+45.9%)
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
~$3.80/MMBtu
Gasoline (RBOB)
Elevated — refinery margins squeezed
This section is updated as market conditions change. For real-time streaming prices, check Trading Economics oil charts or OilPrice.com.
Four forces are converging to push crude to its highest levels since 2022.
Iran rejects all negotiations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera on March 25 that “no negotiations have happened with the enemy until now, and we do not plan on any negotiations.” A senior Iranian security official separately confirmed no direct or indirect contact with Trump. This reversed the previous day’s optimism when President Trump claimed the two countries were “in negotiations right now.” The rejection sent Brent up 4.22% as the market priced out ceasefire probability.
Iran’s Hormuz yuan toll system. In a significant escalation with de-dollarization implications, Iran has begun operating a selective “toll booth” at the Strait of Hormuz — allowing Chinese, Russian, and allied vessels to transit while collecting fees in Chinese yuan. The Strait has been effectively closed to commercial traffic since March 2, disrupting approximately 17.8 million barrels per day. This is not just a supply disruption — it’s a geopolitical restructuring of how oil flows through the world’s most critical chokepoint.
OPEC+ holds firm on cuts. The cartel’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee confirmed no plans to increase output before Q3 2026. Saudi Arabia has maintained voluntary production cuts of 1 million barrels per day since mid-2025. Combined with Iranian export disruptions, total OPEC+ output sits roughly 3.5 million bpd below capacity — the widest gap since the 2020 pandemic cuts.
Inventories critically low. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude stockpiles fell 4.1 million barrels last week to 427.3 million — the lowest since November 2022. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve sits at 345 million barrels following emergency releases in 2022–2023 that have not been replenished. OECD inventories are 180 million barrels below their five-year average.
The Iran conflict has added an estimated $14–18 per barrel risk premium to crude since hostilities began in early March 2026, according to Goldman Sachs. Before the conflict, Brent was trading near $71–76 (per EIA data). The premium reflects three specific risks:
Strait of Hormuz closure. Approximately 17.8 million barrels per day — roughly 21% of global oil consumption — normally transits the Strait. Iran has effectively closed it to commercial traffic since March 2, with the yuan toll system creating a two-tier access regime. Insurance premiums for Gulf-bound vessels have tripled since March 1. Goldman Sachs warned that “Brent is likely to exceed its 2008 all-time high if depressed flows keep the market focused on the risk of lengthier disruptions.”
Iraqi force majeure. Iraq declared force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields on March 20, citing “security concerns.” Iraq produces approximately 4.5 million bpd, making it OPEC’s second-largest producer. Even partial disruption removes significant supply from global markets.
Kuwait refinery strikes. Drone attacks on two Kuwaiti refineries on March 20 temporarily disrupted approximately 400,000 bpd of refining capacity. While operations have partially resumed, the attacks demonstrated the vulnerability of Gulf infrastructure to asymmetric warfare.
17.8M bpd
Oil flow through Strait of Hormuz — effectively closed since March 2
Iran’s selective “toll booth” system allows allied vessels (Chinese, Russian) to transit while collecting fees in yuan — a de-dollarization weapon weaponizing the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. Trump has set an April 6 deadline for reopening.
January 2026: Brent opened at $82.80. Markets were cautiously optimistic about demand recovery in China and stable OPEC+ output. WTI averaged $78.50 for the month. In late January, Brent briefly dipped to $64 per barrel as U.S.-Iran negotiations in Oman showed progress.
February 2026: Prices climbed to $88 as U.S.-Iran tensions escalated following sanctions enforcement actions. The U.S. issued warnings to American-flagged ships to avoid Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. India’s potential freeze on Russian crude imports — linked to a Trump trade deal — added upside pressure. Brent closed February at $89.40.
March 1–10: The Iran conflict began in earnest. Brent spiked from $89 to $98 in three sessions. WTI broke above $90 for the first time since October 2023. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (March 10) noted Brent at $94 — up 50% from the start of the year.
March 11–20: Iraqi force majeure and Kuwaiti refinery attacks pushed Brent above $112 — the 2026 high at the time. WTI touched $98.32. The psychologically significant $100 WTI level came into sight.
March 21–26: Prices pulled back to $97–106 range as ceasefire rumors circulated, then rebounded sharply after Iran’s total rejection of negotiations.
March 27–28: WTI briefly crossed $100 for the first time since 2022 ($100.04 intraday), and Brent closed at $112.57 — a new 2026 high. The Hormuz yuan toll system and Trump’s April 6 ultimatum added fresh urgency.
Crude oil has been the standout commodity performer of 2026, driven by supply constraints and geopolitics rather than demand strength. Brent is up approximately 51% from one month ago ($71.24) and 46% year-over-year. By comparison, gold has gained approximately 15% year-to-date to ~$4,430 per ounce, while the S&P 500 is down roughly 8% as energy costs weigh on corporate margins.
The oil-gold correlation has strengthened during the conflict — both are benefiting from geopolitical uncertainty, but oil carries more upside risk because supply disruption has no equivalent in precious metals. Bitcoin, often touted as an inflation hedge, has been mixed — gaining approximately 15% year-to-date but showing far more volatility during crisis spikes. Natural gas has also spiked, with European TTF futures up 34% since March 1 as markets worry about LNG supply routes through the Gulf. U.S. natural gas (Henry Hub) has been relatively insulated at ~$3.80/MMBtu, according to the EIA.
United States: The world’s largest consumer at approximately 20 million bpd. U.S. production has reached a record 13.3 million bpd — the EIA forecasts this rising to 13.6 million bpd in 2026 and 13.8 million bpd in 2027 as higher prices incentivize drilling. However, the U.S. remains a net importer of crude, making it vulnerable to Brent-linked pricing.
China: The second-largest consumer at approximately 16 million bpd. Chinese demand growth has slowed to 2.1% year-over-year as the economy navigates a property sector correction and EV adoption accelerates. China has been quietly building strategic reserves during price dips, with stockpiles estimated at 900 million barrels. Notably, China is among the countries benefiting from Iran’s Hormuz toll system — gaining preferential transit access.
India: The fastest-growing major demand center, consuming approximately 5.8 million bpd — up 4.3% year-over-year. India has been purchasing discounted Russian crude at volumes exceeding 2 million bpd, partially insulating itself from Brent price spikes. However, the Trump administration’s trade deal linking U.S. market access to halting Russian crude purchases has created uncertainty about India’s future supply mix.
Europe: Demand is flat at approximately 14 million bpd as energy transition policies and mild winter weather reduced consumption. European refiners face margin pressure from elevated Brent prices and weak domestic demand. LNG disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have pushed European gas prices higher, adding to the energy cost burden.
Supply and demand. Global oil demand averages approximately 103 million barrels per day in 2026, while supply capacity sits around 104 million bpd. This thin 1% buffer means any disruption — a pipeline outage, a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, or a geopolitical crisis — can move prices 5–10% in days.
OPEC+ production decisions. The cartel controls roughly 40% of global output. When OPEC cuts production, prices rise. When they increase output, prices fall. Saudi Arabia’s role as swing producer gives it outsized influence — the kingdom can add approximately 2 million bpd within 90 days if it chooses.
U.S. dollar strength. Oil is priced in dollars globally. When the dollar strengthens, oil becomes more expensive for buyers using other currencies, which can suppress demand. The Dollar Index (DXY) currently sits near 100, down from 103 earlier this month — a modest tailwind for oil. Iran’s yuan toll system, if it persists, could gradually erode the dollar’s dominance in oil pricing — a development explored in TECHi’s de-dollarization analysis.
Seasonal patterns. Demand typically peaks in summer (driving season) and winter (heating). Spring and fall are shoulder seasons with weaker demand. However, geopolitical events can override seasonal patterns entirely, as the current Iran crisis demonstrates.
U.S. production response. Higher oil prices incentivize more U.S. drilling. The EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.6 million bpd in 2026 and rise to 13.8 million bpd in 2027 — both upward revisions driven by current prices. This domestic supply buffer partially insulates U.S. consumers but cannot offset a sustained Hormuz closure.
Trump’s April 6 deadline. The president has given Iran until April 6, 2026, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran does not comply, the administration has signaled potential military action — including intercepting tankers carrying Iranian crude and deploying an additional carrier strike group. This is the single most important near-term catalyst for oil prices.
Iran ceasefire negotiations. Despite Iran’s public rejection of talks, back-channel communications through Pakistani mediators continue. Any confirmed deal would trigger a sharp $10–15 drop in Brent as the risk premium unwinds. Conversely, escalation — particularly a direct strike on oil infrastructure — could push Brent above $120 and potentially toward its 2008 all-time high of $147.
OPEC+ June meeting. The cartel’s next full ministerial meeting is scheduled for June 1. Markets will watch for any signal of production increases to cool prices and prevent demand destruction.
EIA weekly inventory report. Released every Wednesday at 10:30 AM ET. Continued draws below the 5-year average would support prices; any surprise build could signal demand weakness.
Federal Reserve policy. Rising oil prices feed directly into inflation. The Fed’s April 28–29 FOMC meeting is the next major policy event. If oil-driven inflation prevents rate cuts — Goldman Sachs has pushed its first cut call from June to September — the dollar could strengthen and create a modest headwind for crude. Conversely, any hint of rate cuts would weaken the dollar and support oil.
Analyst Oil Price Forecasts
Goldman Sachs
$14–18 premium
EIA (STEO)
>$95 near-term
EIA (Q3-Q4)
$70–80 if resolved
The EIA forecasts Brent above $95/bbl for the next two months, falling below $80 in Q3 2026 and ~$70 by year-end — contingent on Hormuz transit resuming. If the conflict persists, Goldman warns Brent could exceed its 2008 all-time high of $147.
This is a developing story. Oil prices are updated as market conditions change. Last updated: March 28, 2026.
As of March 28, 2026, Brent crude closed at $112.57 per barrel (+4.22%) and WTI crude at $99.64 per barrel (+5.46%) — the highest levels since July 2022. WTI briefly crossed $100. Prices surged after Iran rejected negotiations and began operating a yuan-based toll system at the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices are elevated due to the U.S.-Iran military conflict that began in March 2026, which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint for 21% of global oil supply. Iraq’s force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields, Kuwait refinery strikes, and OPEC+ production cuts have further tightened supply. Goldman Sachs estimates a $14–18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium.
The EIA forecasts Brent crude remaining above $95 per barrel for the next two months, before falling below $80 in Q3 2026 and around $70 by year-end — if the Iran conflict resolves and Strait of Hormuz transit resumes. Without a resolution, analysts expect Brent to remain above $100 through at least mid-2026, with Goldman Sachs warning prices could exceed the 2008 all-time high of $147 if disruptions persist.
Brent crude is the international benchmark sourced from the North Sea, while WTI (West Texas Intermediate) is the U.S. benchmark from landlocked Cushing, Oklahoma. Brent typically trades at a premium due to its global shipping accessibility. The current $12.93 Brent-WTI spread is elevated due to Middle East shipping disruptions that disproportionately affect waterborne Brent-linked crude.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) showed some resilience against the US Dollar (USD), holding gains from the previous week’s recovery, when the Bank of England (BoE) opted for a hawkish hold. The pair’s outlook remains mildly bearish as US-Iran talks on a potential de-escalation or ceasfire remain clouded in uncertainty.
GBP/USD extended its bearish consolidation phase into a second straight week as the bull-bear tug-of-war continued in the face of looming risks surrounding the Middle East war and renewed expectations of BoE rate hikes this year.
The week started with the war in the Gulf having entered into a new phase of escalation after the United States (US) and Iran traded fresh threats over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, targeting civilian and energy infrastructure, while Israel planned for “weeks” more fighting.
The persistent risk-off flows kept the haven demand for the USD underpinned, while weighing on the Pound Sterling.
However, markets witnessed a complete 360-degree turnaround later on Monday after US President Donald Trump extended his ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, citing “productive talks” with Iran as the reason behind a likely pause in attacks for five days.
Risk sentiment rebounded firmly, helping GBP/USD stage an impressive relief rally from near the 1.3250 region toward 1.3500.
But Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied having “any negotiations or talks with the US during the past 24 days of the imposed war.” The constant dismissal of any peace talks from Tehran kept a lid on the risk-sensitive Pound Sterling when compared to the USD.
On Tuesday, the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for February confirmed that headline inflation remained at 3% for February, unchanged from the January rate. The data had limited impact on the Pound Sterling as it did not yet account for the surge in energy prices triggered by the Middle East war.
Later in the week, Reuters reported that “the US is seeking a month-long ceasefire in its war on Iran and had sent a 15-point plan to Iran for discussion, raising hopes for a resumption of oil exports out of the Persian Gulf.”
The hopes for a Mideast ceasefire weighed heavily on Oil prices and eased concerns over higher inflation and interest rates, undermining the Greenback once again, while cushioning the downside in the GBP/USD pair.
Heading into the weekend, investors remained on edge due to the uncertainty and confusion over negotiations on a potential ceasefire and the chances of further escalation in the Middle East war.
The Greenback consolidated weekly gains on Friday amid looming risks of a US ground military operation on Iran’s Kharg Island as early as this weekend.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Thursday, citing defence department officials with knowledge of the planning, that the Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to give US President Donald Trump more military options. This happens, ironically, even as Trump extended the pause on his threat to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure for ten days until April 6.
About the UK economy, data on Friday showed that British Retail Sales volumes fell by 0.4% on the month in February, less than the 0.7% decline expected by economists. The data had a limited impact on the currency pair, as the number doesn’t show the potential dip in consumer spending due to the war.
It’s a holiday-shortened week, with clocks turning back in Europe and a data-sparse UK docket. This week will be dominated by economic data from the US.
On Monday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is due to participate in a moderated discussion at Harvard University in Massachusetts. His comments will be closely monitored for the central bank’s path forward on interest rates.
The US employment data will start trickling in from Tuesday, with the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due on Good Friday.
Before that, the US JOLTS Job Openings Survey, ADP monthly Employment Change and ISM Manufacturing PMI will entertain traders.
Beyond the statistics and speeches from the Fed officials, developments on the US-Iran war will be key to shaping the direction of markets in the upcoming week.
The near-term bias stays weakly bearish as spot holds beneath the declining 21- and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and below the flatter 100- and 200-day SMAs, which cap the upside around the mid-1.34s. This configuration signals persistent selling pressure after the recent slide from the 1.36 area, with shorter SMAs now reinforcing a downward tilt against a broader range-bound backdrop. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43 remains below the 50 midline, aligning with a downside bias rather than an oversold condition and leaving room for further extension lower if support gives way.
Immediate resistance emerges at the 21-day SMA near 1.3370, followed by the 100-day SMA around 1.3420 and then the 200-day SMA close to 1.3430, where a break would be needed to ease bearish pressure and reopen 1.3500. On the downside, initial support sits at the recent low near 1.3220, and a clear drop below this area would expose the 1.3150 region next. As long as price trades below the clustered SMAs in the 1.34 zone, rallies are vulnerable to selling into these resistance layers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The CHFJPY price ended the last negative movement by facing a key support at 200.55 level, which forces it to delay the decline and begin providing sideways trading to settle near 200.70.
Note that the continuation of forming extra barrier at 201.05 level and providing negative momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of renewing the negative pressures on the current support, to confirm the importance of surpassing it to open the way for reaching new stations that might begin at 200.25 and 199.90.
The expected trading range for today is between 200.25 and 200.90
Trend forecast: Bearish by achieving the break
The US dollar is slightly positive against the Japanese yen in early trading on Thursday as the pair is caught between the high stakes levels of safe haven flows favoring the Japanese yen and yield differentials which of course favors the United States. The primary driver today is escalation in the Middle East conflict as reports of strikes on infrastructure have derailed hopes of a 15-point peace plan.
This ironically has supported the US dollar via safe haven demand even as the 10-year Treasury yield climbs towards 4.4% due to oil driven inflation fears. At the same time, the Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% last week and Japanese short-term yields, the 2-year yield, has spiked to 30-year highs at 1.32% today as markets price in a 64% chance of an April hike to combat imported inflation. This is a relative interest rate play, and if both banks remain inflation weary, then this pair should continue to see buyers as things stand.
However, as long as the remain of central banks are more or less either hawkish or wait and see mode with a benchmark rate far above Japan’s, the path of least resistance remains higher over the longer term.
The 160-yen level is an area that has been a level that gets the Bank of Japan verbally intervening, but if we can break above the 160.40-yen level, then we clear a 1990 resistance barrier and could send this market much higher over the longer term. I believe that this remains a buy on the dip market and the 158-yen level should be a bit of a floor.
Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Copper price continued to provide sideways trading by its stability near the initial barrier at $5.5100 level, to announce delaying the attempts of resuming the bearish correction due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction in the last period.
The price might continue to provide mixed sideways trading, to keep waiting for extra momentum, to ease the mission of reaching $5.2700 initially, attempting to reach the next target at $4.9500, confirming the importance of its stability in the current period below $5.6300.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.4000 and $5.5800
Trend forecast: Fluctuating
