The EURUSD pair declined in its latest intraday trading, amid continued negative signals from the relative strength indicators, while the stubborn resistance level at 1.1190 remains intact. The decline has also pushed the pair below its EMA50 support, potentially exposing it to further downside pressure and signaling additional losses in the near term.
The pair retested the resistance level at 212.00 during yesterday’s trading, before closing negatively below it. This came amid the presence of the 55-period moving average near this resistance, limiting the pair’s chances of shifting into an uptrend. Therefore, we will continue to wait for the price to gather negative momentum, which could activate bearish attempts targeting 210.40 initially, followed by the support barrier at 209.10.
On the other hand, a successful breakout above the current resistance, followed by holding above it for at least four hours, would invalidate the bearish outlook and give the price an opportunity to record further gains, initially targeting 212.85 and 213.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 210.75 and 212.00
Trend forecast: Bearish
The pair remains under the influence of the corrective bullish bias, moving further away from the main support level at 174.95, to begin recording the first previously anticipated corrective target at 177.25.
The price still has an opportunity to record further gains, supported by the positive momentum from stochastic, attempting to retest the additional resistance barrier at 178.10. On the other hand, activating a new bearish move will require the price to break the mentioned support level and hold beneath it, strengthening the chances of targeting new bearish levels starting at 174.00 and 173.50.
The expected trading range for today is between 176.20 and 178.10
Trend forecast: Bullish
A 2.45% rise brings Silver (XAG/USD) close to $50.35 during Monday’s European trading. With oil prices continuing to retreat, the white metal has recovered strongly from Friday’s $48.86 low, its weakest level in almost a year.
Having reached a five-month high of $104.03 on Friday, WTI Oil has since slipped to just below $100 at the time of writing.
TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights
Concerns about an acceleration in global inflationary pressures ease when oil becomes cheaper. This could temper expectations that central banks will maintain monetary tightening for longer, providing a favourable backdrop for non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Signals that the United States (US) would favour a diplomatic solution with Iran over renewed military strikes have weighed on oil prices.
Attention is also turning to the US mid-term elections and major US economic releases, particularly Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). These could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path.
Turning to the week ahead, Deutsche Bank strategists observe that “tomorrow’s midterms will determine control of Congress for the final two years of President Trump’s term.” In their assessment, current polling “suggests Democrats are favoured to gain the three seats needed for a House majority, while the Senate remains a much closer contest,” and the result in either chamber could take “several days to become clear if the margins are tight.”
On market-implied odds, Deutsche Bank notes that “Polymarket currently put the probability of the Democrats taking the Senate at 72.0%. Well renowned pollster Nate Silver currently suggests a 75% probability.”
Looking at the immediate fiscal implications, economists at Deutsche Bank warn that “the lame-duck session after the election could prove at least as consequential as the composition of the new Congress,” given “government funding expiring on December 11 and Republicans likely to seek a reconciliation bill that could include additional defence spending and potentially address the debt limit.”
At $50.35 on the daily chart, XAG/USD remains well below its 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $53.02, maintaining a bearish near-term bias. This dynamic resistance continues to weigh on the metal. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 28.90 in oversold territory, suggesting that downward momentum is stretched without yet showing a decisive reversal.
The first upside hurdle is the 9-day EMA near $53.02; only a sustained move above it would alleviate the prevailing bearish tone. Although the dataset offers no nearby structural support level, an oversold RSI of around 28.90 indicates that sellers may become less convinced on further declines. That could moderate the fall rather than define a clear support area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Widely traded by investors, Silver has long served both as a store of value and as a means of exchange. Gold remains more popular, but Silver may appeal to traders seeking portfolio diversification, intrinsic value or a potential hedge against high inflation. Exposure can be obtained by purchasing physical Silver coins or bars, or by trading instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds that follow its price in international markets.
A broad range of influences can drive Silver prices. Its safe-haven role means that geopolitical uncertainty or concerns about a severe recession can lift prices, though usually less markedly than for Gold. Lower interest rates also tend to benefit Silver because it pays no yield. Since the metal is quoted in US Dollar (USD) terms (XAG/USD), its performance is also tied to the currency: Dollar strength generally restrains Silver prices, while a weaker Dollar is likely to push them higher. Investment demand, recycling rates and mine supply can affect prices too, with Silver far more abundant than Gold.
With electrical conductivity among the highest of any metal, exceeding that of Copper and Gold, Silver has extensive industrial applications, especially in electronics and solar energy. A sharp increase in demand can push prices higher, whereas weaker demand generally weighs on them. Developments in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also generate price fluctuations. Large industrial sectors in the US and, in particular, China use Silver across a variety of processes. In India, consumer demand for Silver jewellery is another important influence on prices.
Given their similar roles as safe-haven assets, Silver usually moves in line with Gold and typically rises when Gold prices advance. To assess their relative valuations, investors may use the Gold/Silver ratio: the number of ounces of Silver equivalent in value to one ounce of Gold. A high reading may be interpreted by some investors as a sign that Silver is undervalued or Gold overvalued. A low reading, by contrast, could indicate that Gold is undervalued compared with Silver.
Final PMI data, a monthly survey of purchasing managers, showed British manufacturers started the fourth quarter with their strongest output growth in more than two years, Reuters reported. Economists polled by Reuters expect the Bank of England to raise rates to 4% from 3.75% on Thursday, its first hike since August 2023.
Companies also expect prices to keep rising. The BoE’s Decision Maker Panel, a monthly survey of company finance chiefs, showed year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 3.3% from 3.1%. Rabobank expects a 7-2 vote among the nine policymakers and a follow-up hike in February. I expect the UK-US rate gap to keep GBP/USD supported this week, since UK rates are set to rise while US yields fall.
Coffee prices attempted to withstand the negative pressure resulting from negative momentum signals across the main technical indicators, while trying to hold above the additional support level at 283.80. This forced the price to move sideways in mixed trading, as appears on the attached chart.
We expect the price to gather positive momentum soon and begin forming bullish waves, targeting 301.20, before renewing pressure on the resistance barrier near 315.00. However, a break below the current support would force the price to form strong bearish waves, potentially driving it directly toward the main support level at 269.45. We will then monitor the price reaction to determine the broader direction of upcoming trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 284.00 and 301.20
Trend forecast: Bullish
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that the United States had struck Iran’s Qeshm Island. Some officials described the attacks as defensive operations aimed at preventing Iran from freely targeting commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Read more:D-Street poised for positive start as GIFT Nifty signals gains
Brent crude futures rose 11 cents, or 0.12%, to $105 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 26 cents, or 0.27%, to $97 a barrel. In the previous session, Brent crude futures had settled $8.66, or 7.63%, lower at $104.77 a barrel. Brent crude ended October at its highest level in six months, amid concerns that tensions in the Middle East could intensify again following Tuesday’s US midterm elections.
The report brought a fresh risk premium into oil prices after markets had begun factoring in the possibility of a diplomatic resolution, said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. He added that news of continued military activity had shifted market sentiment.
Read more:Stocks in news: ITC, Marico, SBI, Yatra Online, NSE, Container Corp and Sun Pharma
Meanwhile, Tehran said on Monday that discussions with the United States to end the conflict were continuing. This came after several days of talks between Iran and Qatari mediators concluded with revised proposals but failed to produce a breakthrough. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had granted the government certain powers to pursue peace negotiations.US President Donald Trump also cast doubt on Monday over whether he would carry out his threat to resume military strikes against Iran, while indicating that a deal with Tehran remained possible.
The conflict between the US and Iran, which began in late February, has significantly curtailed shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway previously handled around a fifth of global crude oil and natural gas supplies.
Separately, the United States will host delegations from Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 for discussions on ending Moscow’s war against Ukraine, post-war security arrangements and de-escalation.
Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts upwards, citing heightened risks to global supply, and warned that Brent crude could climb to $140 a barrel in 2027 if oil production in the Gulf region remains significantly below its 2025 average. The investment bank raised its December Brent crude price forecast to $105 a barrel from $90 earlier. Its projection for US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was also increased to $94 a barrel from $81.
In an upside scenario, Brent crude could reach $140 a barrel and average around $130 in 2027 if Gulf oil production remains 3.5 million barrels per day below its 2025 average, Reuters reported, citing Goldman Sachs’ projections.
The bank expects oil markets to price in a higher geopolitical risk premium, taking into account the possibility of disruptions to Middle East supplies, the historical duration of major supply shocks and concerns that a lasting diplomatic breakthrough may be difficult to secure.
Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the course of the conflict continues to cloud the oil price outlook. JPMorgan analysts said it remained difficult to assess how the war would unfold. At the beginning of the conflict, the bank had expected the US administration to avoid crossing certain economic thresholds. However, seven months later, several of those limits had been breached, with no clear strategy for bringing the conflict to an end.
Disclaimer: This article has been written by Veer Sharma, who is not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst or an Investment Adviser. Veer Sharma and his/her ‘relative(s)’ (as defined under Section 2(77) of the Companies Act, 2013) do not hold any financial interest in the companies mentioned in this article as of the date of publication. The views/recommendations mentioned in this article, wherever applicable, are those of the respective SEBI-registered Research Analyst/brokerage and have been reproduced/reported with due attribution. They should not be construed as the views or recommendations of The Economic Times Digital or the journalist. Readers are advised to consider the original research report and make their investment decisions based on their own assessment. Brokerage disclaimers here
Silver (XAG/USD) falls around 3% on Thursday, sliding to fresh year-to-date lows as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep buyers on the sidelines. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $52.32, its lowest level since November 2025.
The decline comes despite a softer US Dollar (USD), suggesting that price action remains driven by interest rate expectations. Higher borrowing costs increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Silver.
TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights
The latest US economic data released on Thursday keep bets on a December rate hike firmly in place. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, closely watched by the Fed, rose 0.3% MoM in September. Annual core inflation increased to 3.1% from 3.0%, remaining above the Fed’s 2% target.
Meanwhile, the preliminary estimate of third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed the US economy grew at an annualised rate of 3.4%, above expectations of 3.2% and up from 2.2% in the previous quarter. Traders see around an 80% chance of a December rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This comes after the Fed opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at the conclusion of its October meeting on Wednesday. However, the main takeaway was that inflation remained elevated and the central bank remained committed to ensuring price stability.
On the technical front, sellers remain in control as XAG/USD trades well below its key daily moving averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 28, signalling oversold conditions that could allow a short-term bounce. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 37 suggests the downtrend remains strong.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal level near $55.00, followed by the former congestion zone around $60.00 before the 100-day SMA at $61.73 and the 50-day SMA at $62.11 come into play as a broader resistance band, with the 200-day SMA further up at $70.63 marking a major barrier to any sustained recovery.
On the downside, an extension of the decline would bring the $50.00 psychological level into focus as major support. A decisive break below it could open the door to deeper losses.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.15% | -0.34% | 0.02% | -0.16% | 0.24% | -0.11% | -0.26% | |
| EUR | 0.15% | -0.19% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.40% | 0.03% | -0.12% | |
| GBP | 0.34% | 0.19% | 0.36% | 0.16% | 0.58% | 0.20% | 0.07% | |
| JPY | -0.02% | -0.18% | -0.36% | -0.19% | 0.22% | -0.16% | -0.29% | |
| CAD | 0.16% | -0.02% | -0.16% | 0.19% | 0.41% | 0.06% | -0.09% | |
| AUD | -0.24% | -0.40% | -0.58% | -0.22% | -0.41% | -0.35% | -0.51% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | -0.03% | -0.20% | 0.16% | -0.06% | 0.35% | -0.12% | |
| CHF | 0.26% | 0.12% | -0.07% | 0.29% | 0.09% | 0.51% | 0.12% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold is holding on to its modest gains recorded earlier today, driven by positive signals emerging from the relative strength indicators after it reached deeply oversold levels. This has allowed the price to recover some of its previous losses, supported by the stability of the $3,900 support level.
However, negative pressure remains in place as gold continues to trade below EMA50, reinforcing the dominance and stability of the main bearish trend over the short term.
USD/JPY moved higher despite the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.58% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.90%.
USD/JPY needs to settle above the resistance at 158.00 – 158.50 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/JPY will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 160.00 – 160.50 range. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to provide support to the yen if USD/JPY tests the 160.00 level, but traders are worried about this scenario.
