USD/JPY remains stuck near resistance at 158.00 – 158.50 despite the pullback in Treasury yields. I’d note that USD/JPY has become less sensitive to Treasury yield dynamics in recent trading sessions.
Today, traders focused on BoJ Governor Ueda speech. Ueda said that BoJ would continue to raise the interest rate.
If USD/JPY climbs above the 158.50 level, it will move towards the next resistance level at 160.00 – 160.50. On the support side, a move below the 50 MA at 157.76 will push USD/JPY towards the 157.00 level. If USD/JPY settles below 157.00, it will head towards the support level at 155.00 – 155.50.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.
2026.10.06 2026.10.06 Short-Term Analysis for Oil, Gold, and EURUSD for 06.10.2026
Alex Rodionovhttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-rodionov/
Welcome, my fellow traders! I have prepared a price forecast for US Crude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of the margin zones method and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I have identified entry signals for intraday traders.
Gold reached its second sell target today.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
USCrude: Oil may break below the Target Zone of 88.79–87.46.
XAUUSD: Gold has reached the second sell target at 4,110.
The oil price is approaching last week’s low around 87.30. If the asset settles below this low, it may pierce the Target Zone of 88.79–87.46. In this case, the next bearish target will be the Gold Zone of 84.36–83.92.
Consider short trades during a pullback from resistance A at 92.18–91.74, with targets at 89.74 and 87.30.
USCrude Trading Ideas for Today:
Sell at resistance A at 92.18–91.74. TakeProfit: 89.74, 87.30. StopLoss: 93.25.
Gold Forecast for Today: XAUUSD Analysis
Today, gold reached 4,110, its second sell target. Currently, the price is correcting higher. The short-term trend remains bearish.
If the gold price climbs to resistance A at 4,217–4,206, one may consider short trades, targeting 4,160 and 4,104.
XAUUSD Trading Ideas for Today:
Sell at resistance A at 4,217–4,206. TakeProfit: 4,160, 4,104. StopLoss: 4,243.
Euro/Dollar Forecast for Today: EURUSD Analysis
The euro is trading in a correction phase within a short-term downtrend. If it tests the resistance zone A at 1.1253–1.1245 during the correction, short positions can be considered, with the first target at 1.1207 and the second at 1.1161.
If the price falls below yesterday’s low, resistance A should be adjusted.
EURUSD Trading Ideas for Today:
Sell near resistance A at 1.1253–1.1245. TakeProfit: 1.1207, 1.1161. StopLoss: 1.1274.
Would you like to learn more about technical analysis methods and principles? Explore our comprehensive guide.
P.S. Did you like my article? Share it in social networks: it will be the best “thank you” 🙂
Useful links:
I recommend trying to trade with a reliable broker here. The system allows you to trade by yourself or copy successful traders from all across the globe.
Use my promo code BLOG to get a 50% deposit bonus on the LiteFinance platform. Simply enter this code in the appropriate field when funding your trading account.
Telegram channel with high-quality analytics, Forex reviews, training articles, and other useful things for traders https://t.me/litefinance
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
Daily chart of US 2-Year Treasury yield (US02Y) at 4.875%, pulling back from a recent high, with EMAs and 10-year yield indicator.
The first chart I’m watching is the U.S. 2-year yield. It is dropping a little bit during the trading session. That could provide a little bit of relief for some risk appetite-based assets. We’ll just have to wait and see. But right now, it is still elevated, so I think anti-U.S. dollar sentiment is probably somewhat short-lived.
It is not until the 28th that we roll over into the December contract. At that point, we really start to talk about people in the United States burning natural gas 24 hours a day. Until we get to that point, it is a little bit of a buy-the-dip opportunity, but it is also a market that probably has somewhat limited upside.
European LNG purchases this year could be a major story. We will just have to wait and see whether or not natural gas gets from Qatar to the EU. So far, it looks like that fear might be alleviated, but that is a wild card out there.
There is no change on the temporary sideways moves of GBPJPY pair, to fluctuate near 209.00 level due to the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, which obstacles the chances of resuming the main bearish trend, the sideways trading might continue temporarily until gathering negative momentum, attempting to press on 208.10 barrier, which extend the trading towards the main negative stations near 206.80 and 206.25.
While the risk of changing the negative trend and begin building a bullish path, which requires surpassing 210.45 and holding above it, to begin recording several gains to expect forming an initial station at 211.35.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.10 and 209.55
Platinum price remains stable near the extra support at $1705.00, affected by the contradiction of the main indicators, however, the stability below $1840.00 barrier makes us wait to confirm the breakout, to begin forming strong bearish waves, to target $1660.00 and $1605.00.
While breaching the previously mentioned barrier and holding above it will confirm recovering the bullish trend, to expect targeting several positive stations that might begin at $1880.00 and $1950.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1660.00 and $1740.00
EUR/JPY could find initial support at the lower boundary of the channel around 176.60.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index is at 29.78, signaling potential seller exhaustion and eventual stabilization.
The primary resistance lies at the nine-day EMA at 178.18.
EUR/JPY halts its seven-day losing streak, trading around 177.40 during Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross is remaining close to the lower boundary of the descending channel, suggesting the price holds support and a temporary bounce. However, a break below the channel would signal accelerating downward momentum in a steeper downtrend.
The EUR/JPY cross is maintaining a bearish tone as it holds beneath both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The currency cross has recently slipped below the nearer structural floor at 175.70, turning recent price action into a corrective phase, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 29.78 hovers in oversold territory, hinting that while downside pressure is strong, fresh selling could become more measured in the short term.
The initial support lies at the lower boundary of the channel around 176.60, followed by an 11-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025. Further support lies at the 14-month low of 169.72.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross may rebound and test the nine-day EMA at 178.18, followed by the 50-day EMA at 181.20. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 184.20, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
ECB tone softens as Lagarde flags growth risks from rising yields
Analysts at Commerzbank argue that the ECB has scope to ease market tensions through communication before resorting to more forceful tools. They note that, despite elevated inflation, ECB representatives could “adopt a less hawkish tone in their public comments, thereby dampening expectations of interest-rate hikes and easing pressure on government bonds.” In their view, Christine Lagarde’s recent appearance before the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs already points in this direction, as she stressed that “the sharp rise in bond yields would dampen economic growth and limit the pass-through of higher energy costs to consumers,” signalling greater sensitivity to the impact of tighter financing conditions.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.05%
0.10%
0.16%
0.03%
0.01%
0.04%
0.10%
EUR
-0.05%
0.00%
0.07%
-0.02%
-0.02%
-0.01%
0.06%
GBP
-0.10%
-0.00%
0.08%
-0.04%
-0.02%
-0.02%
0.08%
JPY
-0.16%
-0.07%
-0.08%
-0.11%
-0.12%
-0.08%
-0.01%
CAD
-0.03%
0.02%
0.04%
0.11%
-0.02%
0.00%
0.09%
AUD
-0.01%
0.02%
0.02%
0.12%
0.02%
0.00%
0.11%
NZD
-0.04%
0.00%
0.02%
0.08%
-0.00%
-0.01%
0.10%
CHF
-0.10%
-0.06%
-0.08%
0.00%
-0.09%
-0.11%
-0.10%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Disclaimer: For information purposes only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to ISM Services PMI report. The report showed that ISM Services PMI declined from 55.4 in August to 54.9 in September, compared to analyst forecast of 55. Numbers above 50 show expansion. The weaker-than-expected report did not put any pressure on the American currency.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 102.35 – 102.50. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 102.50 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 103.35 – 103.50 range.
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) traded near 1.1204 on Monday afternoon, down around 0.4% as concerns over French government finances weighed on the single currency.
Weaker US employment figures have failed to produce a lasting Euro recovery, with ING warning of further losses and Rabobank cutting its forecasts despite the softer American data.
EUR/USD Forecasts: ING warns of 1.10 risk
ING expects EUR/USD to retreat towards 1.1100-1.1120 in the near term, with French fiscal uncertainty threatening a deeper decline.
According to ING; “We stick with our 1.1100/1120 EUR/USD target for the time being, with the risk of an extension to the 1.10 area.”
EUR/USD has slipped further from Friday’s close near 1.1252, extending the pressure that drove a 2.5% decline during September.
ING noted that markets have removed around 30 basis points of expected European Central Bank tightening since late September, compared with only 13 basis points for the Federal Reserve.
Save on Your EUR/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
The smaller adjustment to US expectations has preserved a source of support for the Dollar.
Rabobank has also become more cautious, lowering its three-month EUR/USD forecast to 1.13 from 1.16 and its 12-month projection to 1.12 from 1.18.
The bank commented; “We have revised our EUR forecasts lower across the board”.
The revised targets are close to current levels, but represent a substantial retreat from its previous expectations of a stronger Euro.
Rabobank warned that investors selling French bonds may increasingly move funds outside the Eurozone rather than switch into other Euro-denominated assets.
It added; “This raises the prospect that the EUR could be impacted by outflows.”
French public debt reached 119.0% of GDP in the second quarter, up from 117.5% during the opening three months of the year.
US economic developments nevertheless remain an important counterweight to the Euro’s domestic difficulties.
Non-farm payrolls increased by just 29,000 in September, while revisions removed 60,000 jobs from the previous two months and unemployment increased to 4.2%.
Annual wage growth also eased to 3.0%, providing further evidence that labour-market inflation pressures are cooling.
ING said “the Fed leadership is clearly leaning in the direction of an October hold”, although it still expects another increase later this year.
It added; “December remains our call on the next Fed hike.”
Deutsche Bank’s analysis published last week offered a more constructive outlook, forecasting EUR/USD at 1.17 by the end of 2026.
The bank believes resilient growth outside the US, an eventual easing of energy pressures and already substantial expectations of Fed tightening should limit sustained Dollar gains.
According to Deutsche Bank; “This global growth environment is not consistent with US exceptionalism.”
The forecast is under pressure following the latest decline, but the bank argued that conditions did not justify assuming the Dollar’s advance would continue.
“This is the wrong time to be chasing EUR/USD lower,” the analysts added.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
Strong US manufacturing PMI data and rising Treasury yields are placing heavy downward pressure on Silver.
Odds of an October Fed rate hike jumped to 69.7%, driven by hawkish official commentary and inflation concerns.
Rising crude oil prices and Middle East geopolitical tensions further reinforce expectations for prolonged monetary tightening.
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $64.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. Silver faces increased downward pressure as both the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields surge, driven by hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and resilient domestic economic indicators.
The latest Flash US S&P Global PMI data for September highlighted this momentum, showing manufacturing expanding faster than expected at 52.0 and helping offset slight pullbacks in services and composite activity. Following these economic signals, market expectations for a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in October surged to nearly 69.7%, up sharply from 48.7% last week.
Traders are now turning their attention to the upcoming US weekly Initial Jobless Claims report, while several Fed officials have reiterated support for the recent rate increase and issued fresh warnings regarding persistent inflation risks.
Fed’s Barr flags need for more hikes, underpinning Dollar support
Fed’s Barr delivers a distinctly hawkish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 8/10, above the 7/10 historical average and signaling a stronger-than-usual tightening bias. The emphasis that “further rate hikes [are] likely needed” and that risks to achieving 2% inflation have increased, while labor market risks have receded, underscores a clear prioritization of inflation control over growth concerns. The admission that the Fed was “out of position” and needed to “recalibrate” policy reinforces the message that the current stance may still be too loose, a backdrop that tends to support the Dollar and weigh on risk assets.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 0.42 points to 148.81, firmly in hawkish territory well above the neutral 100 mark, consistent with the elevated FXS Speechtracker reading. This combination of a higher index level and above-baseline speech score confirms a market narrative of persistent Fed tightening risk, which should remain a supportive factor for the Dollar against lower-yielding peers.
Adding to the hawkish interest-rate outlook is a potential rebound in crude oil prices amid lingering uncertainty surrounding United States-Iran diplomatic talks. Speaking at the UN General Assembly, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Tehran would not yield to threats, reaffirming the country’s right to pursue nuclear technology for economic development. He also emphasized that Iran would restrict freedom of navigation through the strategic Strait of Hormuz for as long as US sanctions and blockades remain active. Because higher oil prices exacerbate inflationary pressures, these geopolitical tensions further reinforce expectations for prolonged monetary tightening, maintaining headwinds for Silver.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
