The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate retreated towards 1.3380 after failing to hold gains above the 1.34 level, with Sterling undermined by a stronger US Dollar and renewed concerns surrounding UK political and fiscal risks.
ING notes that the global bond-market sell-off has become an important negative for the Pound, particularly as investors reassess exposure to economies with widening fiscal pressures.
The bank considers that recent UK political developments have increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy credibility and could trigger a higher Sterling risk premium.
“During this period, international investors may want to avoid UK exposure, and at its extreme, another 3-4% in risk premium could be priced into sterling.”
ING also notes that rising US Treasury yields continue to support the Dollar more broadly as markets scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
That combination leaves GBP/USD vulnerable in the short term, especially if global risk appetite deteriorates further.
The bank expects support around the 1.3250–1.3300 area to come under increasing focus if bond-market volatility persists.
At the same time, ING still considers Sterling relatively better positioned against the Euro given ongoing structural growth concerns within the eurozone.
Near-term direction will depend heavily on global bond markets, Federal Reserve expectations and whether UK political tensions continue to intensify.
For now, ING considers that the balance of risks remains tilted towards further GBP/USD weakness.
Copper price settled with the bearish corrective track by providing negative closes below the extra barrier at $6.3800 level, fluctuating again near $6.1700 level.
The price needs to break the initial support at $6.1000 to resume the negative attempts, opening the way for targeting extra corrective stations that might begin at $5.9500 and $5.8000, while surpassing $6.3800 level and holding above it will increase the chances of forming bullish waves, to expect targeting %100 Fibonacci extension level at $6.5400.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.9500 and $6.3000
The dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate strengthened to highs near 158.5 at the start of the week, maintaining pressure on the Japanese currency after another rise in US Treasury yields.
MUFG notes that the yen remains vulnerable in the short term, especially with energy prices rising again and global bond markets under renewed pressure.
The bank expects yield differentials to remain an important driver, particularly as markets continue scaling back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In this context, MUFG expects USD/JPY to remain close to the upper end of its recent range, with the bank targeting a 157.00–160.00 range in the short term.
“Fundamental factors continue to favour further yen weakness and will keep pressure on Japan to intervene again to support the yen as the USD/JPY moves back closer to the 160.00-level.”
MUFG also notes that Japan’s fiscal position is attracting increased scrutiny following discussion of another supplementary budget package and rising long-dated Japanese government bond yields.
The bank considers that higher oil prices are an additional negative for the yen given Japan’s dependence on imported energy.
At the same time, volatility could increase sharply if markets begin testing the Japanese authorities’ tolerance for renewed yen weakness.
The bank still sees scope for periods of yen recovery over the medium term, particularly if geopolitical tensions intensify further or US economic data starts to weaken more materially.
In the short term, however, MUFG considers that the balance of risks still favours a higher USD/JPY pair.
The domestic coffee market on May 19, 2026 recorded a very strong decline session, completely cutting off the accumulation momentum of the mid-week period.
According to the latest survey data in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the bulk purchase price simultaneously “evaporated” from 1,400 to 1,700 VND per kg, pushing the average price level throughout the region deeply back to the threshold of 85,400 VND per kg.
Specifically in Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices decreased sharply by 1,700 VND, bringing the purchase level back to 85,500 VND per kg but still maintaining the highest position in the region.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai localities both recorded a deep decrease of 1,700 VND, currently trading stably at the 85,300 VND per kg mark.
Lam Dong area witnessed a decrease of 1,400 VND, pushing soybean kernel prices down to the lowest level in the region at 84,880 VND per kg.
Meanwhile, pepper still maintained stable sideways movement at 142,000 VND per kg and the USD exchange rate listed at Vietcombank slightly increased by 2 VND to 26,109 VND.
World coffee prices
Developments on the two international futures exchanges in the nearest closing session continued to sink into bright red as selling pressure from speculative funds increased sharply.
On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures for July 2026 delivery fell another 2.70 cents, equivalent to 1,01%, closing the session at 256.75 cents per pound, officially setting the lowest contract level in nearly 1.5 years.
Sharing the negative trend, the London exchange witnessed Robusta futures for July 2026 delivery plummet by 59 USD, equivalent to 1.75%, falling deeply to the threshold of 3,306 USD per ton, hitting the lowest level in the past 4 weeks. The continuous decline in the last two sessions of the week and the beginning of the new week clearly reflects the panic of speculators before the new supply wave about to land from South America.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
From the perspective of macro analysts, the core reason pushing coffee prices to slide comes from the harvest progress and expectations of Brazil’s super-bumper crop.
Major organizations such as StoneX and Marex Group Plc both maintained their forecast for the 2026 crop year. 2027 of this South American nation will reach a record 75.9 million bags, directly expanding the global coffee surplus in 2026 to 10 million bags.
In Vietnam, export growth in the first 4 months of the year, impressively increasing by 15.8% to 810,000 tons, also contributed to easing the fear of Robusta shortage among international roasters.
However, the market still has certain technical support points when Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange just fell to the bottom of 2.75 months with 462,777 bags, Robusta inventories anchored at the bottom of 2 years with 3,631 lots, along with the fact that the Strait of Hormuz continues to close, increasing freight and fertilizer costs to a very high level.
In the short term, domestic coffee prices will continue to be under adjustment pressure and strong fluctuations around 84,000 to 86,000 VND per kg when Brazil’s new crops begin to flood the market in June.
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened on Monday, clawing back some of last week’s losses as UK political concerns began to ease and British bond markets stabilised.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3393, up around 0.5% on the day.
The Pound (GBP) climbed on Monday as investors appeared to take a calmer view of the UK’s political backdrop.
Pound Sterling had been knocked last week by mounting speculation over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position, with the uncertainty spilling into the bond market and sending UK borrowing costs sharply higher.
However, the mood improved at the start of the week as fears of an imminent leadership challenge began to recede.
Further reassurance came from Andy Burnham, seen as a potential challenger, after he suggested that he would maintain the government’s current fiscal rules if he became Prime Minister.
His comments helped cool concerns around the UK’s fiscal outlook, allowing gilt yields to pull back from their recent near-18-year highs and easing a key source of pressure on the Pound.
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GBP also found some support from the IMF’s latest UK growth upgrade. The fund lifted its 2026 forecast from 0.8% to 1%, citing the economy’s ‘strong pre-war momentum’.
With political nerves easing and borrowing costs retreating, Sterling was able to regain some of the ground lost during last week’s volatility.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) weakened on Monday as investors locked in gains following the currency’s strong run last week, which had carried USD to multi-week highs.
The safe-haven ‘Greenback’ also struggled to attract much fresh demand amid an uneven market mood.
Ongoing attacks in the Middle East kept investors cautious, preventing a stronger risk-on rally. However, tentative optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal helped curb demand for safer assets.
As a result, the US Dollar lost ground as traders trimmed positions after last week’s advance.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Labour Data to Lift the Pound?
Looking ahead, the Pound could be driven by the UK’s latest labour market figures on Tuesday.
Economists expect unemployment to have held at 4.9% in the three months to March, pointing to a broadly unchanged jobs market. Wage growth is also forecast to remain steady, while employment is expected to rise by 107,000.
If the figures print in line with expectations, signs of resilience in the UK labour market could reinforce the view that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise interest rates.
Later in the session, comments from BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden may also influence GBP. A hawkish tone from Breeden could help the Pound extend its gains.
For the US Dollar, the latest ADP weekly employment change figure may attract attention as investors look for fresh signals on the strength of the US jobs market.
Meanwhile, risk sentiment could remain a key driver of the ‘Greenback’. Any further developments in the Middle East may trigger volatility, particularly if they shift demand for safe-haven currencies.
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The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened on Monday, clawing back some of last week’s losses as UK political concerns began to ease and British bond markets stabilised.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3393, up around 0.5% on the day.
The Pound (GBP) climbed on Monday as investors appeared to take a calmer view of the UK’s political backdrop.
Pound Sterling had been knocked last week by mounting speculation over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position, with the uncertainty spilling into the bond market and sending UK borrowing costs sharply higher.
However, the mood improved at the start of the week as fears of an imminent leadership challenge began to recede.
Further reassurance came from Andy Burnham, seen as a potential challenger, after he suggested that he would maintain the government’s current fiscal rules if he became Prime Minister.
His comments helped cool concerns around the UK’s fiscal outlook, allowing gilt yields to pull back from their recent near-18-year highs and easing a key source of pressure on the Pound.
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GBP also found some support from the IMF’s latest UK growth upgrade. The fund lifted its 2026 forecast from 0.8% to 1%, citing the economy’s ‘strong pre-war momentum’.
With political nerves easing and borrowing costs retreating, Sterling was able to regain some of the ground lost during last week’s volatility.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) weakened on Monday as investors locked in gains following the currency’s strong run last week, which had carried USD to multi-week highs.
The safe-haven ‘Greenback’ also struggled to attract much fresh demand amid an uneven market mood.
Ongoing attacks in the Middle East kept investors cautious, preventing a stronger risk-on rally. However, tentative optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal helped curb demand for safer assets.
As a result, the US Dollar lost ground as traders trimmed positions after last week’s advance.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Labour Data to Lift the Pound?
Looking ahead, the Pound could be driven by the UK’s latest labour market figures on Tuesday.
Economists expect unemployment to have held at 4.9% in the three months to March, pointing to a broadly unchanged jobs market. Wage growth is also forecast to remain steady, while employment is expected to rise by 107,000.
If the figures print in line with expectations, signs of resilience in the UK labour market could reinforce the view that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise interest rates.
Later in the session, comments from BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden may also influence GBP. A hawkish tone from Breeden could help the Pound extend its gains.
For the US Dollar, the latest ADP weekly employment change figure may attract attention as investors look for fresh signals on the strength of the US jobs market.
Meanwhile, risk sentiment could remain a key driver of the ‘Greenback’. Any further developments in the Middle East may trigger volatility, particularly if they shift demand for safe-haven currencies.
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ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
The silver price in US dollars (XAG/USD) traded at 77.501360, up 1.07%, stabilising after a steep correction that saw the metal fall nearly 9% on May 15.
Silver has endured extreme volatility this month, sliding from recent highs above 87 even though the broader 12-month trend remains strongly positive.
Image: XAG USD 7 day chart
RBC’s market review showed silver fell 5.4% to $75.99/oz in the week to May 15, while physical silver ETFs still recorded inflows of 4 million ounces.
That combination points to a market where speculative momentum has cooled, but investor demand has not disappeared.
RBC analysts also noted that net long silver positioning increased by 3,000 contracts to 27,000, suggesting parts of the market were still adding exposure despite the price fall.
The wider macro backdrop remains difficult for precious metals.
US Treasury yields rose sharply, the Dollar strengthened, and inflation expectations moved higher after stronger US price data.
These forces tend to hurt silver because the metal carries no yield and is highly sensitive to shifts in real rates.
Image: XAG USD 1 year chart
The correction also follows an exceptional rally.
The price of silver remains up more than 130% over one year, far outpacing the price of gold.
That leaves the market vulnerable to sharp position unwinds when the US Dollar rises or bond yields jump.
For now, silver’s outlook remains split between strong structural performance and fragile short-term momentum.
A sustained break back above 80 would suggest buyers are returning, while failure to recover that level could keep the focus on deeper consolidation after the recent speculative surge.
The Euro (EUR) strengthened against Pound Sterling (GBP) after renewed speculation surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s future added to concerns over UK political stability and the outlook for the British currency.
Latest — Exchange Rates: Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.15364 (-0.08%) Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.3506 (-0.15%) Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.17073 (-0.07%)
Currency analysts at Rabobank said Pound Sterling remains heavily driven by headlines surrounding Starmer’s leadership battle, warning that prolonged political uncertainty could push EUR/GBP higher over the coming year.
GBP initially recovered some ground during early European trade, but Rabobank said the rebound quickly faded as investors reassessed mounting tensions inside the Labour Party.
“The currency clearly remains beholden to news regarding the future of PM Starmer’s leadership,” Rabobank said.
Markets briefly stabilised after Starmer survived another night without a formal leadership challenge, although pressure on the Prime Minister intensified sharply earlier this week.
Rabobank noted that more than 80 Labour MPs have reportedly called on Starmer to resign, while four ministers quit the government yesterday.
The bank said reports suggesting Health Secretary Wes Streeting could resign and launch a leadership challenge “as soon as tomorrow” were adding further uncertainty for investors.
While Labour Party rules make removing an incumbent leader difficult, Rabobank warned the scale of internal divisions points to the risk of “a prolonged period of messy UK politics”.
“This hints at the possibility of a prolonged period of messy UK politics – something that the Labour party had promised to put a stop to,” the bank said.
UK Gilt Market Concerns Returning
Rabobank said political instability is increasingly spilling into UK financial markets, particularly the gilt market.
Although long-dated UK bond yields briefly steadied this morning, the bank warned further volatility remains likely if uncertainty drags on.
“Any wobble in the long end would also leave the currency vulnerable,” Rabobank said.
Investors are also reassessing Bank of England rate expectations.
Through March and April, Sterling was supported by a sharp repricing in UK interest rates as markets swung from expecting cuts to pricing multiple hikes following the Iran-driven energy shock.
However, Rabobank believes current pricing has become too aggressive.
“Currently the market is priced for three 25bp rate hikes on a one-year view. That said, in Rabo’s view this is too aggressive,” the bank said.
Rabobank argued that softer labour market conditions and growing spare capacity in the UK economy should ultimately limit the need for aggressive Bank of England tightening.
“A re-pricing in favour of one rate hike could weigh on the pound,” analysts added.
EUR/GBP Forecast: Rabobank Targets 0.89 as Pound Sterling Risks Grow
Rabobank continues to forecast the Euro to Pound exchange rate moving towards 0.89 over a 12-month horizon, implying broader Sterling weakness ahead.
The bank warned the UK’s large current account deficit leaves the Pound particularly exposed if political uncertainty combines with renewed gilt market stress or weaker growth expectations later this year.
Coffee price surrendered to the negative pressure in its last trading due to the negative momentum that comes from the main indicators, to settle below the support at 276.80 level, announcing its surrender to the negative scenario by reaching 265.40 level.
Note that providing negative close below 255.00 level in the near trading, to confirm its readiness to target new bearish stations that might begin at 233.80, while its failure to settle below this barrier will provide a chance for recovering some losses by its rally towards 280.00 and 294.00 gradually.
The expected trading range for today is between 234.00 and 274.00
The US dollar has rallied a little bit against the Japanese Yen, but we are getting a little bit stretched here. What I would like to see is a little bit of a pullback in order to find value so that we can take advantage of any cheap dollars that we can find.
The 50-day EMA sits just above the 150-yen level, and it is an area that I think will continue to be important—a little bit of a floor, if you will. Above, we have the 160-yen level, an area that I think a lot of people will have to watch closely due to the fact that we had seen the Bank of Japan intervene in that general vicinity. That being said, this is a situation I think you’re looking to buy dips, taking advantage of the interest rate differential and any value you can find.
