Goldman Sachs has raised its Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price forecasts by $5 a barrel for December 2026 and 2027, citing expectations that shipping disruptions in the Middle East will persist into next year, Reuters reported.

The bank said Brent crude could rise above $120 a barrel in 2027 if average oil production in the Gulf remains 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. That compares with Goldman Sachs’ base-case assumption of a 500,000-barrel-per-day shortfall.

However, the bank also outlined a significantly lower-price scenario. Brent could fall into the $60s a barrel in 2027 if average Gulf oil production rises by 1 million barrels per day above pre-war levels, according to the Reuters report.

Oil prices have recently climbed to a six-week high as renewed conflict in the Middle East heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions. Iran has also threatened the United States with economic retaliation, adding to fears that the conflict could escalate further.

The six-month-old war has been characterised by periods of calm followed by renewed flare-ups, keeping energy markets on edge. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has also slowed sharply, with an average of only 10 commodity ships passing through the key waterway each day over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May, shipping data showed on Monday.

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Goldman Sachs said the increase in its price forecasts remained relatively modest despite its assumption that shipping disruptions would continue. Reuters reported that the bank pointed to limited drawdowns in OECD commercial oil inventories since the conflict began and its expectation that Middle Eastern producers would continue adapting supply flows.The Strait of Hormuz is a critical route for global energy shipments, and prolonged disruption could tighten crude supplies and put upward pressure on prices. The extent of the impact, however, will depend heavily on the duration of the conflict, the pace at which Gulf production recovers and the ability of producers and traders to redirect supplies.

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Goldman Sachs’ scenarios highlight the wide range of possible outcomes for crude prices in 2027, with prolonged supply losses potentially pushing Brent above $120 a barrel, while a stronger-than-expected recovery in Gulf production could send prices down toward the $60s.

From a fundamental perspective, WTI has continued to climb recently, with the core driver remaining Middle East crude supply risks stemming from the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. As both sides launch a new round of actions targeting oil tankers and related military targets, market focus has shifted from pure geopolitical tension to whether the conflict will further affect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf.

Recently, the number of commodity vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped noticeably, while safety and insurance risks facing commercial oil tankers have risen in tandem. Given that the Strait of Hormuz handles a substantial portion of global oil transport, if traffic remains persistently below normal levels, even if crude exports are not completely disrupted, the market will need to price in a higher risk premium for potential supply losses.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ decided to maintain its existing production policy unchanged in October, pausing its previous streak of consecutive output increases. This means that amid rising supply uncertainty in the Middle East, the short-term buffer of additional supply from OPEC+ is reduced, providing further support to oil prices.

However, WTI has already risen rapidly from near $80 in late August to above $92, with some geopolitical risk already priced in. Whether oil prices can further challenge $97 or even $100 going forward will depend critically on the actual shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and whether Middle East crude experiences more pronounced supply losses.

If attacks on commercial tankers expand further, or if energy facilities such as major oil fields and export terminals are affected, WTI could still continue to move higher; conversely, if signals of negotiations or a ceasefire emerge between the U.S. and Iran and shipping recovers, the current elevated risk premium could rapidly recede.

WTI crude oil price daily chart, source: TradingView

Looking at the daily chart of WTI crude oil prices, driven by the escalation of the US-Iran conflict, oil prices recently rose from $80 to a high of $93.29. The short-term candlestick structure shows a distinct pattern of continuously higher highs and higher lows, indicating that the short-term uptrend remains intact. Meanwhile, the 5-day and 10-day moving averages sequentially crossed above the 144-day moving average, forming a golden cross structure and further strengthening short-term bullish momentum.

Currently, oil prices today advanced to just below the July 23 rebound high of $93.50, increasing short-term upside pressure. If oil prices can effectively break through and hold above $93.50, it will open up upside space toward $97.00. Further up, prices could test the $100 mark and even challenge $105.

On the downside, the primary support level to watch below is the $91-$90 range. If oil prices fall below $90, they may further test support near $87.70 down below; if the decline continues, they could test support at the 20-day moving average.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.

Domestic coffee prices

Coffee prices today in the domestic market simultaneously unexpectedly remained unchanged compared to the previous session. According to giacaphe. com, the average coffee price on September 7 remained at 94,800 VND/kg.

In Gia Lai and Dak Lak, coffee prices were recorded at 94,700 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, the listed coffee price is at 94. 200 VND/kg.

The old Dak Nong area still maintained the highest price in the whole region, recording 95,000 VND/kg.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 25,840 VND/USD, down 5 VND/USD.

World coffee prices

In the world market, coffee prices fluctuated in the same direction as all terms did not adjust.

According to Barchart, the September 2026 Robusta contract remained unchanged, anchored at the $3,344/ton mark. The November 2026 term was listed at $3,430/ton. The term from January 2027 to May 2027 saw an increase from $55-57/ton, to $3,383 – $3,415/ton.

Similarly, the September 2026 Arabica futures contract closed the session at 324.25 cents/lb. The December 2026 term held the price at 295.60 cents/lb. Further forwards were anchored in the 287.4 – 283.4 cents/lb range.

Assessments and forecasts

The London and New York exchanges entered the first trading session of the new week with the foundation being a slight technical recovery from the previous week’s closing session. The 3,400 USD/ton zone of Robusta for November 2026 futures temporarily played a good role as a short-term psychological support level.

Meanwhile, weather factors continue to dominate the New York Stock Exchange. The rainfall diễn biến in Minas Gerais and São Paulo (Brazil) states in the early days of September is still not thick enough to completely relieve concerns about drought for the main flowering stage. This helps New York limit the deep decline, fluctuating accumulation around the 295 cent/lb mark.

Supply and demand keep domestic pepper prices stable above the 94,000 VND/kg mark. According to statistics, the volume of coffee exports in the first 8 months of 2026 reached about 1.3 million tons with a value of 6 billion USD, an increase of 13.1% in volume but a decrease of 9.1% in value compared to the same period in 2025. The average export price reached 4,538 USD/ton, down 19.7%, showing that price decreases are significantly impacting turnover even though export volume is increasing.

GBPAUD faced new bearish pressures due to the stability of stochastic stability within the oversold level, to push it to break the support level at 1.8830 and providing negative closes, to suffer new losses by reaching 1.8740 level.

 

The stability below the broken support will increase the efficiency of the bearish scenario in the near trading, to expect reaching 1.8675 and surpassing this barrier might extend the trading towards the next station that is represented by 1.8585.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 1.8675 and 1.8810

 

Trend forecast: Bearish