I wrote on 12th April that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair following a daily (New York) close above ¥160.

2. Long of Brent Crude Futures in the small chance we get a daily close above $112.50.

Neither of these trades set up.

A summary of last week’s most important data in the market:

1. US PPI – considerably worse than expected, showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.5% while 1.1% was widely forecasted. This undershot helped the US Dollar lose some value.

2. UK GDP –better than expected, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5% while only 0.1% was forecasted. This didn’t have much effect upon the Pound.

3. Australia Unemployment Rate – as expected, no change at 4.3%.

Last week’s economic data releases were much less influential upon the markets than the US/Iran negotiations. Optimism that the war will come to a full end soon with some kind of deal and an open Strait of Hormuz has increased, and this has sent stock markets soaring, especially in the USA. The S&P 500 Index has risen by over 13% within just the past three weeks after reaching a new 7-month low. It closed Friday at a new record high! This is a huge turnaround, and April is on track to being the best month for the S&P 500 Index in 52 years.

Despite the optimism, the Iranians are publicly goading the USA, declaring they are refusing President Trump’s red lines, and acted to re-close the Strait of Hormuz yesterday after temporarily opening it. President Trump has continued with a mixture of publicly expressed optimism with the occasional comment following Iran’s fire on vessels attempting to transit about how more bombs will probably be required.

It is worth mentioning that the current ceasefire expires by this Wednesday.

The outcome of negotiations and the ceasefire concerning the Middle Easy war is likely to remain more influential that any economic data releases which are scheduled over the coming week, as we approach the deadline for the expiry of the current two-week ceasefire and await to see whether it will be extended or something else will be agreed.

The coming week’s most important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US Retail Sales

2. UK CPI (inflation)

3. Canada CPI (inflation)

4. New Zealand CPI (inflation)

5. Germany & UK Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI

6. UK Retail Sales

7. UK Claimant Count Change (Unemployment Claims)

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

For the month of April, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value. The performance of the forecast so far:

Last week, I made the following forecasts for the coming week:

• AUD/JPY short – this was a losing trade, as the cross rose by 0.98%.

• NZD/JPY short – this was a losing trade, as the cross rose by 0.32%.

• NZD/CAD short – this was a winning trade, as the cross fell by 0.33%.

Overall, the trades gave a loss of 0.97%, which is an average loss of 0.32% per trade.

The Australian Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the US Dollar was the weakest.

Next week’s volatility is likely to remain relatively low. However, the ongoing war in the Middle East (subject to the current ceasefires) retains the ability to roil the market if there are any surprises. This could generate volatility in the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the Canadian Dollar, not to mention stock markets.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

Key Support and Resistance Levels

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar printed a bearish candlestick, with a significant lower wick, and a close that was within the lower half of its range. We have a bearish long-term trend, with the 3-month trend bearish and the 6-month trend also bearish.

Despite the seeming bearish trend, looking at the price chart below, we can see that the greenback is really within a long-term consolidation phase, so we cannot really expect much of a trend in the US Dollar here.

I think the greenback will be more driven by the progress in the current Middle East ceasefire talks – if war breaks out again, it will likely boost the Dollar, not so much as a haven but more as an effect of the inflationary shock of the rising energy prices. If the ceasefire becomes something more durable, conversely, it will probably be bearish for the US Dollar. This latter scenario is what the market is strongly expecting right now, so I will generally prefer to be short of the US Dollar over the coming week, unless the USA/Iran war restarts.

US Dollar Index Weekly Price Chart

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair was at the heart of the Forex market yet again last week, with the Aussie gaining by more than any other major currency, while the US Dollar was the biggest loser. There has been a very long-term bullish trend in the Aussie, which seemed to have decoupled from risk sentiment to some extent, but we see the Aussie getting bid hard as the world enjoys the increasing expectation that there will be a peace deal soon concluded between Iran and the USA. This is also leading to a decline in the USD, as a safe haven is no longer in such demand.

Another factor pushing the Australian Dollar higher is the relatively hawkish central bank agenda of the RBA, which is likely to hike rates again. The AUD has the highest overnight carry of any major currency, so the Aussie is also being used as a long component in carry trades, possibly against the Swiss Franc or Japanese Yen (the Yen is probably better value overall for that role).

Technically, there is a long-term bullish trend. The price reached a new 3-year high last Friday above $0.7220 but then fell firmly. The price chart below shows last week printed a fairly large bullish candlestick, but it definitely has an upper wick to watch out for.

I think the coming week could give more good long trade opportunities. The support near $0.7150 looks quite strong, so a bullish bounce there might be a good trade entry signal. However, longs will need to watch out for more strong selling potentially above $0.7200.

This pair will likely be at the heart of market volatility, which can be great for day traders, and follow sentiment on the Middle East and the second order effect of a commodity price shock, both up and down.

AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair lost some ground last week, three weeks after finally making the long-anticipated bullish breakout beyond the big round number at ¥160. The problem is not Yen weakness, which can be taken for granted over the long-term it seems. The problem for progress higher by this currency pair is the renewed weakness in the US Dollar now that there is a ceasefire seen as leading to a peace deal in the Middle East war, because if there is a longer-term agreement it will remove some inflationary pressure from the Fed through lower energy prices.

Trend traders will be worrying about the slight bearish bias we are seeing near the highs and the price’s unwillingness to break out, especially above the ¥160 level. The Japanese Yen is weak but the Bank of Japan might get nervous and work for an intervention to strengthen the Yen above that level, adding a potential extra hurdle for bulls.

Bulls might however be encouraged by the fact we see significant lower wicks on all the recent weekly candlesticks below. There is also a very solid ascending trend line which has been supporting the price action for a year.

If we do not see the price make a firm bullish move soon, I fear that we might have a bit of a bearish head and shoulders chart pattern which might complete below ¥157.50, finally knocking out most trend traders from their long position, although some will be setting their stop losses for a break below the trend line at about ¥155.

I remain long, but more cautious traders might want to wait for a daily (New York) close above ¥160 before entering a new long trade.

USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart

S&P 500 Index

The S&P 500 Index has been on a wild ride over the past few weeks, rising by more than 13% in value within that time, especially over the past week. If this holds up, it will be the biggest calendar month gain by the Index since 1987, or possibly even 1974. This is quite an extraordinary turnaround after the price fell by about 10% to spend several days trading below the 200-day simple moving average and reaching new 7-month low prices. This is extraordinarily high volatility and an unusual event.

Stock markets are soaring through the same driver that was sending them plummeting just three or four weeks ago – the war between the USA and Iran. The ceasefire and negotiations have generated an increasingly strong expectation that the war will end soon with a comprehensive peace deal. This sent markets soaring higher, and we saw this Index end the week very near the high of its large range after reaching a new all-time high above 7,150.

This is overall a bullish development, this strong breakout to a new record high, and it is generally a signal that the price will go on to rise over the coming months. However, it might be worth considering what could happen if the war unexpectedly resumes this Wednesday when the two-week ceasefire expires. I find it hard to believe the Islamic Republic will accept giving up its nuclear program and will instead try to draw the USA into a long war of attrition, hoping the American eventually give up enough to accept some kind of compromise that leaves their nuclear program to fight for another day. If the war resumes, this would likely send stock markets sharply lower again. However, as a trend trader, I follow what happens, not what I think might happen, and I had to go long at this bullish breakout.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Price Chart

NASDAQ 100 Index

Everything I wrote above about the S&P 500 Index applies equally to the NASDAQ 100 Index, with the small adjustment that the bullish breakout to new record highs here looks maybe slightly less strong. However, the NASDAQ 100 averages a higher return than the S&P 500 Index, so if you want to be long there, you should seriously consider being long here too.

NASDAQ 100 Index Weekly Price Chart

Brent Crude Oil Futures

Brent Crude Oil fell again last week, continuing its journey lower as the USA/Iran ceasefire has continued to hold and give rise to strong expectations of a comprehensive peace deal by the end of May. Just as this has pushed stocks higher, it has sent crude oil lower. Another factor here is the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran opened on Friday before closing again on Saturday and firing on at least three tankers, as the USA continues its blockade of traffic to and from Iranian ports.

This new situation might push the price up a bit, but it is very unlikely to send prices to new highs. I am not sure that the price will fall a great deal further even if there is a peace deal, it may take a while to do that, but it should continue to trade lower in that scenario.

The surprise to consider is, what if all the positivity from President Trump is a feint and he is planning to pretend to negotiate a ceasefire extension, but will then order a fresh attack on Iran the minute the ceasefire expires this Tuesday / Wednesday. If this happened, it would certainly send the price of oil racing higher, we might even see the price rise by $20 in a single day.

I think that unless you have a strong view on whether a resumption of the war is likely, there is no point trading crude oil right now, but on a surprise resumption of the war, a long trade could be a good idea.

I will go long here if we get a daily (New York) close above $112.50 per barrel.

If you do go long, Brent will likely be the better vehicle than WTI, as it is more exposed to events in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Daily Price Chart

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair following a daily (New York) close above ¥160.

2. Long of Brent Crude Futures if we get a daily close above $112.50. This is extremely unlikely to set up unless there is a surprise resumption of the war.

Created on April 19, 2026

Day traders may feel as if last week was an opportunity to ride momentum lower in WTI Crude Oil, but be unsure of where things are going next.

Large speculators in WTI Crude Oil have had a month and a half of wild rides to navigate and there are more coming. News this weekend shows there is a lack of clarity regarding what is taking place in the Hormuz Strait because of the Iranian war saga. The U.S White House which had been saying they had blockaded the waterway, did admit that Iran had shut off some the shipping as of Saturday. And Iran seems to be saying with conviction via some of its mouthpieces that the strait is closed again.

WTI Crude Oil and Supply

Via international ocean navigation sites it is being reported that shipping has slowed down in the Hormuz Strait once again. This article is being written on Sunday morning and as most people know who are following the developments from the Middle East, things can change fast. The closing price of WTI Crude Oil around the $83,60 mark is certain to endure another spike on early Monday. The direction of that spike tomorrow and how it is perceived will depend on positions being held now and what will happen in the first hours of WTI Crude Oil opening.

Depending on news developments over the next 24 hours, Monday is certain to be another turbulent trading situation in WTI. The ability to traverse to a low of nearly $79 on Friday shows where optimistic outlooks can take Crude Oil prices. The bounce upwards as the weekend set in shows the quick reactionary results that can flourish. Value velocity in WTI Crude Oil remains a danger. Supply is the key in the short-term and if the Strait of Hormuz suffers from ships turning around and deciding not to enter the waterway, the price of WTI Crude Oil will be disrupted upwards too.

Near-Term and Gambling on WTI Crude Oil

Certainly there is money to be made by speculating on WTI Crude Oil because of its dynamic price action it is now presenting. Picking the right direction based on perceptions is the most important piece of the gambling endeavor.

• WTI Crude Oil technical prices are of interest for traders to gauge sentiment.

• However, the fast paced action of the commodity is a bit like a roulette table depending on which news generates the biggest reaction.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 75.000 to 105.000

So where is the price going to go in WTI Crude Oil? If there is an early Monday morning lurch upwards above $90 this will indicate nervousness has returned and large traders are actually uncertain of what is taking place in the Strait of Hormuz. This seems to be a likely reaction while trying to get a sense of the news on Sunday. The potential price differential in WTI Crude Oil via lows and highs in the coming days could be electric.

Yet, if things change towards positive sentiment again today into tomorrow, and if this is accomplished via proof that oil tanker shipping is functioning, then WTI Crude Oil could remain tranquil. The ability to go below $80 is possible once again, but this will need additional proof of facts for large traders to create downwards momentum. Betting on WTI Crude Oil by day traders must be done carefully and strict risk management is needed. The commodity will remain a focus for all global investors this week.

Spot Gold closed higher on Friday, but off its high for the session. The main trend is still down according to the main swing chart, but the minor swing chart is trending higher. Long-term support is the 200-day moving average at $4210.83. Short-term resistance is the 50-day moving average at $4897.88.

In addition to the 50-day moving average resistance, retracement zone resistance comes in at $4850.68 to $5028.04.

The near-term direction is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50-day moving average at $4897.88. A sustained move over this level could create the upside momentum needed to challenge $5028.04. This could be the trigger point for an acceleration into a pair of main tops at $5238.78 and $5419.66.

Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market entered Sunday (April 19) with a closing price lower than last week by about 600 VND/kg. The first trading session of the week started with a price threshold of 86,000 VND/kg. Then the price range continuously increased and peaked at 88,300 VND/kg. However, the high price range decreased sharply towards the end of the week, down to 85,100 VND/kg. This shows a fairly large fluctuation range, about 3,200 VND/kg.

Detailed purchase prices in key localities:

Dak Nong (old): Recorded price of 85. 200 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Maintain a trading level of 85,000 VND/kg.

Lam Dong: Anchored at the lowest level in the region at 84,500 VND/kg.

Compared to the peak of 96,600 VND/kg set on March 7, the current coffee price has evaporated by about 11,500 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

On the London exchange, the price of online Robusta coffee for May 2026 futures contracts closed last week at $3,388/ton, down $64/ton compared to the previous week. July 2026 futures contracts fell $24/ton, to $3,263/ton.

In the same direction, the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee futures for May 2026 delivery fell 10.8 US cents/lb last week, reaching 289.3 US cents/lb. July 2026 contracts plummeted 11.65 US cents/lb, reaching 284.25 US cents/lb.

Market outlook

The world coffee market closed the last trading session of the week in red, extending the decline on both the London and New York exchanges as selling pressure increased in most trading terms.

This is also the second consecutive week that world coffee prices have ended in red, showing a rapid change in the supply-demand balance and macroeconomic factors. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced oil prices by about 10%, thereby reducing global shipping costs.

When logistics pressure subsided, one of the important supports for agricultural product prices, including coffee, also weakened. At the same time, the market shifted to a state of less concern about supply shortages, causing speculative buying power to decrease significantly.

However, the market is not entirely negative. In Vietnam – the world’s largest Robusta supplier, the price decrease has stimulated buying demand. As of April 17, Robusta inventories managed by ICE continued to plummet, down to 3,838 lots. This is also the lowest level in 16 months – a factor limiting the market’s deep decline.

Will oil prices go up?

It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.

How oil prices translate to gas pump prices

Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.

Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.

It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.

Historical performance of oil

To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:

• Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
• West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America

Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:

• The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
• Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
• Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
• During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.

All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.

Energy coverage from Fortune

Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:

Frequently asked questions

2026.04.17 2026.04.17
WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 17.04.26–24.04.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 84.85 with a target of 115.70–126.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 84.85. Stop Loss: below 82.90, Take Profit: 115.70–126.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 84.85 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 75.70–65.00. A sell signal: the level of 84.85 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 86.50, Take Profit: 75.70–65.00.

Main scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 84.85 with a target of 115.70–126.00.

Alternative scenario

Breakout and consolidation below the level of 84.85 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 75.70–65.00.

Analysis

A descending correction (2) appears to have formed on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily timeframe, an ascending third wave (3) has started unfolding, with the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) still developing as its part. On the H4 timeframe, wave v of 1 is developing, within which a local correction (iv) of v has been completed and wave (v) of v has started forming. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to the levels of 115.70–126.00. The level of 84.85 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 75.70–65.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode

Resistance Layers Define Next Breakout or Rejection Zone

A lower swing high at $4,640, along with the 20-day moving average, identifies a lower short-term support zone, as a drop below it will signal likely further weakness. Since Friday was the first approach to the 50-day moving average to test it as resistance since it broke as support on March 18, resistance may persist. However, a decisive breakout above the 50-day average, followed by a daily close above it, would put the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $5,122 in sight. The downtrend line is nearby, and it also represents the top boundary of a falling trend channel. This is notable since the bottom boundary of the channel was confirmed as a support zone during the sharp March selloff.

Confluence Support Suggests Potential for Continuation

Gold is sitting on a strong support confluence zone consisting of the 10-day, 20-day, and 100-day moving averages, along with the top channel line of a long-term rising trend channel. This suggests that a breakout above the 50-day average may be possible before a drop below this zone. Once prior resistance becomes support, as seen with the three moving averages, the short-term bull trend is showing an intention to continue higher.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.