Copper Price: Navigating Near-Term Volatility and Long-Term Bullish Trends
Why Is the Copper Price Rising?
There are three major tailwinds pushing copper upwards: tariffs, supply disruptions, and rising demand for copper in emerging technologies.
US copper tariffs
Refined copper cathode, the raw metal itself, is not, as of the time of writing, subject to a Section 232 tariff. It was exempted when the copper tariffs took effect on August 1 2025 and remains exempt today. Copper ores, concentrates, anodes and scrap are also outside the tariff.
What is tariffed is semi-finished and derivative products. Proclamation 11021 of 2 April 2026, effective 6 April, applied the duty to the full customs value of a covered article rather than only to its declared metal content, and set the tiered rate structure below at the same time.
The resulting structure, in force since 6 April 2026:
These tariffs are not applied universally. For example, the reduced UK rates of 25 per cent (Annex I-A) and 15 per cent (Annex I-B) are written to cover UK-origin aluminium and steel content; the proclamation does not extend them to copper content. And the threshold to qualify as “made entirely” from American metal fell from 95 per cent to 85 per cent by weight on June 8, which makes the 10 per cent rate easier to claim.
Goods listed as articles or derivatives of more than one covered metal are charged once, at the rate for the annex they appear in, rather than stacked per metal. Since July 30 2026, importers of certain copper articles must report primary country of smelt and country of cast in ACE.
However, markets are now being repriced according to the threat of future tariffs, as much as they are according to the impact of existing tariffs. The July 2025 proclamation set out a contemplated expansion, which envisioned a phased universal duty on refined copper of 15 per cent from January 2027, rising to 30 per cent from January 2028.
It also contemplated a 25 per cent domestic sales requirement for copper input materials from 2027, and a 25 per cent domestic sales requirement plus export licensing for high-quality copper scrap. None of that is in force as of the time of writing.
To inform the decision, the Commerce Secretary was directed to deliver an update on US copper markets by 30 June 2026. That deadline was set by presidential proclamation, not by statute, and that deadline has now passed without any report being made public. As of late August, the White House has still not made a ruling, though markets appear to be bracing for tougher tariffs ahead.
In the meantime, it makes sense for firms to hold copper inside US customs territory rather than risk paying duty later. American refined copper imports reached 885,000 tonnes in the first half of 2026, up 3 per cent year on year. At that run rate, the year will match or exceed 2025’s record 1.64 million tonnes. July alone topped 200,000 tonnes, the strongest month since records began in 2014.
Mine supply disruption
Consultancy Project Blue puts first-half 2026 production losses at roughly 338,000 tonnes across Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Chile. Collectively, these countries account for a significant amount of global copper production, and disruptions to their mines will be felt keenly in the markets.
Grasberg, Indonesia
The world’s second-largest copper mine is still recovering from the September 2025 mudslide that prompted Freeport-McMoRan to declare force majeure. S&P Global has it targeting 65 per cent of capacity by the end of 2026, with full production pushed back to 2027.
Kamoa-Kakula, DRC
Ivanhoe Mines cut 2026 guidance to 290,000–310,000 tonnes from 380,000–420,000 in April, a 22.5 per cent reduction. In August, partner Zijin Mining warned that flooding could cut its own attributable share by as much as 57,000 tonnes this year, putting its 1.2 million tonne group target under pressure.
Chile
Cochilco expects national output of 5.27 million tonnes in 2026, down 2.6 per cent on the year, citing weak first-half performance at Codelco, Escondida and Spence. Codelco’s average ore grade has fallen from 1.02 per cent in 2022 to 0.66 per cent in 2025.
Goldman Sachs cut its global mine supply estimate by 350,000 tonnes on Grasberg and Kamoa alone, noting neither is expected back at full capacity before 2028, although by some estimates, full supply at Grasberg could be returned to as soon as 2027.
The direct impact is small; the DRC shipped 696,725 tonnes of cathode against just 53,926 tonnes of concentrate in the first quarter, because it already refines most of its copper domestically. However, the violent reaction in the market reveals just how jumpy it has become.
A newer vulnerability has emerged in sulphur and sulphuric acid, essential to leaching and SX-EW processing. Middle East shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been squeezed, and China halted acid exports from May 2026. BMI flags this as a critical and under-priced constraint.
AI data centres and grid demand
Traditionally, the construction industry was the premier source of copper demand, and China’s construction boom had been a significant driver. But with China’s property market stalling, demand-side pressure is being relieved somewhat.
Nevertheless, copper continues to rise because of rising demand for copper in grid infrastructure, electrification and emerging technologies. Chinese power grid capital expenditure rose 37 per cent year on year in the first quarter of 2026. J.P. Morgan estimates copper demand from new data centre installations at around 475,000 tonnes in 2026 alone.
On the electrification side, the International Energy Agency puts a battery electric vehicle at roughly 53.2kg of copper against 22.3kg for a conventional car. Offshore wind uses about 8,000kg per megawatt, against 1,150kg for a coal-fired plant.
