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12 04, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Steady Above $72 Amid Critical Trump Iran Deadline Tensions

By |2026-04-12T01:20:08+02:00April 12, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


BitcoinWorld

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Steady Above $72 Amid Critical Trump Iran Deadline Tensions

Global precious metals markets maintained cautious stability on Thursday, with silver prices trading essentially flat above the $72 per ounce threshold as investors worldwide focused their attention on an impending geopolitical deadline involving former President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. The XAG/USD pair demonstrated remarkable resilience despite multiple market pressures, reflecting the complex interplay between monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risk premiums that continue to define the 2025 commodities landscape.

Silver Price Forecast: Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Silver’s current trading pattern reveals significant market indecision. Consequently, analysts observe consolidation within a narrow range. The precious metal found support at $71.85 earlier this week before climbing to current levels. Meanwhile, resistance remains firm near $72.40. This technical behavior suggests traders await clearer directional signals. Fundamentally, several competing factors influence silver’s valuation. First, moderating inflation expectations reduce immediate safe-haven demand. Second, industrial consumption data shows mixed signals across global manufacturing sectors. Third, central bank reserve diversification continues providing underlying support. Fourth, currency fluctuations, particularly dollar strength, create headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities.

Market participants currently monitor several key indicators. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting minutes will provide crucial insights. Additionally, Chinese industrial production figures will influence demand expectations. Furthermore, European Central Bank commentary may affect currency cross-rates. These domestic economic factors interact with broader geopolitical developments. Specifically, the Middle East situation introduces volatility potential. Therefore, silver’s price action reflects this multidimensional analysis.

Geopolitical Context: Understanding the Iran Deadline

The geopolitical landscape gained renewed attention this week. Former President Donald Trump’s administration established specific Iran-related deadlines during its tenure. Currently, certain provisions approach their expiration or review periods. These deadlines involve nuclear agreement considerations and sanctions enforcement mechanisms. International observers monitor potential policy shifts carefully. Regional stability concerns naturally affect commodity markets. Historically, Middle East tensions correlate with precious metals volatility. Silver often demonstrates sensitivity to such developments.

Several specific factors contribute to market watchfulness. First, diplomatic channels report ongoing negotiations. Second, regional military posturing shows subtle changes. Third, energy market reactions influence broader commodity sentiment. Fourth, global shipping and trade routes face potential disruption risks. Market analysts reference historical precedents for context. For instance, the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani triggered significant silver price movements. Similarly, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action announcement affected precious metals. Current conditions suggest moderate rather than extreme market impact.

Expert Analysis: Precious Metals Market Dynamics

Financial institutions provide measured assessments of the situation. Goldman Sachs commodities research notes silver’s dual nature as both monetary and industrial asset. Their analysis suggests geopolitical premiums typically add 3-7% to silver prices during tension periods. Meanwhile, JP Morgan’s quarterly commodities report highlights inventory levels. Global silver stockpiles remain within historical averages. This inventory cushion may limit extreme price spikes. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts emphasize technical factors. The 50-day moving average currently provides support at $71.20. Additionally, trading volume patterns show institutional accumulation.

Comparative analysis reveals interesting patterns. Gold-silver ratio calculations currently stand at approximately 78:1. This ratio remains above the 10-year average of 68:1. Consequently, some analysts suggest silver possesses relative value. Historical data supports this perspective. During previous geopolitical crises, silver often outperformed gold percentage-wise. However, silver also demonstrates higher volatility characteristics. Risk management considerations therefore remain paramount for traders.

Market Infrastructure and Trading Considerations

Modern silver trading involves complex market structures. The London Bullion Market Association provides daily price benchmarks. Meanwhile, COMEX futures contracts offer standardized trading vehicles. Exchange-traded funds like iShares Silver Trust provide retail access. These interconnected systems create efficient price discovery. Current open interest data shows moderate positioning. Specifically, managed money accounts maintain net-long positions. However, these positions decreased slightly last week. This reduction suggests professional traders exercise caution.

Several practical factors affect silver market functioning. First, physical delivery mechanisms operate smoothly. Second, storage costs remain stable across major vaults. Third, refining capacity meets current demand levels. Fourth, recycling flows contribute approximately 20% of annual supply. These operational elements support market stability. Despite geopolitical headlines, physical market conditions show normalcy. Premiums for immediate delivery remain within typical ranges. This indicates adequate available supply.

Economic Indicators and Silver Demand Drivers

Broader economic conditions influence silver’s fundamental outlook. Global manufacturing PMI readings show regional variation. Asian industrial activity demonstrates relative strength. European figures indicate contraction concerns. American manufacturing displays mixed signals. These regional differences create complex demand patterns. Solar panel installation represents a growing demand segment. Photovoltaic technology consumes substantial silver quantities. Government renewable energy targets support this demand. Automotive electrification provides additional industrial usage. Electric vehicles utilize silver in multiple components.

Monetary policy developments remain crucial for precious metals. Central bank balance sheet adjustments affect liquidity conditions. Interest rate expectations influence opportunity costs. Currency valuation changes impact dollar-denominated pricing. The current environment features policy divergence among major economies. The Federal Reserve maintains a data-dependent approach. The European Central Bank faces growth challenges. The Bank of Japan continues yield curve control. These policy differences create currency market volatility. Silver often benefits from dollar weakness scenarios.

Risk Assessment and Future Scenarios

Market participants evaluate multiple potential outcomes. A diplomatic resolution to Iran tensions could reduce risk premiums. Conversely, escalating rhetoric might increase safe-haven demand. Economic slowdown concerns present additional considerations. Recession scenarios typically depress industrial demand. However, monetary policy responses might offset this effect. Technological innovation introduces long-term uncertainty. Silver substitution research continues across industries. Alternative materials development could affect future demand.

Several specific scenarios warrant monitoring. First, deadline extensions without substantive changes. Second, renewed negotiations with modified parameters. Third, enforcement actions affecting specific sectors. Fourth, regional proxy conflicts with indirect impacts. Historical analysis provides probability estimates. Similar deadlines in past administrations resulted in varied outcomes. Market reactions correspondingly differed in magnitude and duration. Current volatility expectations remain moderate based on options pricing.

Conclusion

The silver price forecast reflects balanced market assessment as XAG/USD trades near $72. Geopolitical developments involving Trump’s Iran deadline command attention but haven’t triggered dramatic movements. Market infrastructure demonstrates resilience amid uncertainty. Technical indicators suggest consolidation within defined parameters. Fundamental factors present mixed signals across industrial demand and monetary policy dimensions. Ultimately, silver’s price trajectory will depend on resolution clarity regarding Iran policy alongside broader economic indicators. The precious metal maintains its traditional role as both industrial commodity and potential hedge, with current trading patterns indicating measured market evaluation of competing risk factors.

FAQs

Q1: What is the current XAG/USD trading range?
The XAG/USD pair currently trades between $71.85 support and $72.40 resistance, showing consolidation patterns as markets await clearer directional signals from both economic data and geopolitical developments.

Q2: How do geopolitical tensions typically affect silver prices?
Historically, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions add risk premiums of 3-7% to silver prices, though the effect varies based on conflict scale, duration, and potential disruption to trade routes and energy supplies.

Q3: What industrial factors support silver demand in 2025?
Solar panel manufacturing represents the fastest-growing demand segment, followed by automotive electrification components and 5G infrastructure deployment, though traditional electronics and jewelry applications remain significant.

Q4: How does the gold-silver ratio affect trading decisions?
The current ratio near 78:1 suggests silver may be relatively undervalued compared to historical averages near 68:1, potentially indicating better value for long-term investors, though silver’s higher volatility requires appropriate risk management.

Q5: What economic indicators most influence silver prices?
Manufacturing PMI data, inflation expectations, currency exchange rates (particularly USD strength), central bank policy signals, and industrial production figures collectively drive silver’s fundamental valuation alongside geopolitical developments.

This post Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Steady Above $72 Amid Critical Trump Iran Deadline Tensions first appeared on BitcoinWorld.



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11 04, 2026

U.S. Dollar Pulls Back As Inflation Rate Jumps to 3.3%: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By |2026-04-11T21:12:44+02:00April 11, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

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11 04, 2026

Natural gas price approaches the support– Forecast today – 10-4-2026

By |2026-04-11T17:18:26+02:00April 11, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


The GBPJPY pair is under strong positive pressures, pushing it to surpass the resistance at 213.30, to settle above it to confirm regaining the bullish bias by its stability within the minor bullish channel’s levels, recording 213.85 level.

 

The continuation of providing positive closes above 213.30 level will allow it to take advantage from the main indicators, to begin targeting new positive stations that might begin at 214.10 and 215.00, while the return to settle below 213.30 will force it to activate the bearish corrective scenario again, forming the initial negative targets at 211.90 level.

 

The expected trading range for today is between 213.30 and 215.00

 

Trend forecast: Bullish

 





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11 04, 2026

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Critical Analysis Reveals Hesitant Bears as Breakout Above 1.1670 Remains in Play

By |2026-04-11T17:11:45+02:00April 11, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

BitcoinWorld

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Critical Analysis Reveals Hesitant Bears as Breakout Above 1.1670 Remains in Play

Financial markets in London and New York observed cautious trading activity on Thursday, December 4, 2025, as the EUR/USD currency pair approached a critical technical juncture. Technical analysis reveals that bearish momentum appears hesitant despite recent pressure, with a potential breakout above the 1.1670 resistance level remaining firmly in play according to multiple chart patterns and indicators.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Landscape Analysis

Market analysts currently examine the EUR/USD pair through multiple technical frameworks. The currency pair recently tested support near 1.1620 before rebounding toward the 1.1650 region. Consequently, this price action suggests underlying strength despite apparent bearish pressure. Furthermore, the 50-day moving average provides dynamic support around 1.1635, creating a confluence zone with horizontal support levels.

Several key technical elements merit attention in the current EUR/USD forecast. First, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 48, indicating neutral momentum without extreme overbought or oversold conditions. Second, trading volume patterns show declining volume during recent pullbacks, suggesting weak bearish conviction. Third, Fibonacci retracement levels from the October swing high to November low identify 1.1670 as the 61.8% retracement level, a historically significant technical barrier.

Recent price action reveals important characteristics for traders. Specifically, the pair has established higher lows since mid-November, forming a potential ascending triangle pattern. Meanwhile, daily candlestick patterns show rejection of lower prices near 1.1620 on three separate occasions. These technical developments collectively suggest that bears lack sufficient momentum to drive prices significantly lower at present.

Market Context and Fundamental Backdrop

The current EUR/USD price forecast operates within a complex fundamental environment. European Central Bank policy decisions continue to influence euro dynamics, particularly regarding interest rate differentials with the Federal Reserve. Additionally, economic data releases from both regions create intermittent volatility spikes that technical analysis must contextualize.

Recent economic indicators provide crucial background for the EUR/USD forecast. Eurozone inflation data showed modest improvement last week, reducing immediate pressure for aggressive ECB easing. Conversely, U.S. employment figures demonstrated resilience, supporting the dollar’s underlying strength. These competing fundamental forces create the technical indecision currently visible on price charts.

Expert Analysis and Institutional Perspectives

Major financial institutions offer nuanced views on the EUR/USD outlook. Goldman Sachs analysts note that positioning data reveals net short euro positions approaching extreme levels, potentially limiting further downside. Meanwhile, JPMorgan’s technical team identifies 1.1670 as a “make or break” level for near-term direction. Bloomberg Intelligence reports that options market pricing shows balanced risk perceptions around current levels.

Historical precedent provides additional context for the current EUR/USD forecast. During similar technical setups in 2023, the pair frequently experienced false breakdowns before resuming broader trends. Statistical analysis of past breakouts above the 1.1670 level reveals an average follow-through of approximately 150 pips over subsequent sessions. This historical data informs current risk-reward calculations for traders.

Technical Indicators and Chart Pattern Interpretation

Multiple technical indicators converge around the 1.1670 level in the EUR/USD forecast. Bollinger Bands show contraction, indicating reduced volatility and potential for an impending expansion. The Average Directional Index (ADX) reads 22, suggesting a non-trending market environment that favors range-bound strategies. Meanwhile, moving average convergence divergence (MACD) shows a bullish crossover on the four-hour chart, providing short-term momentum signals.

Key resistance and support levels structure the current trading range:

  • Immediate Resistance: 1.1670 (horizontal resistance and Fibonacci level)
  • Secondary Resistance: 1.1700 (psychological level and previous swing high)
  • Primary Support: 1.1620 (recent swing low and volume node)
  • Secondary Support: 1.1585 (200-day moving average and October low)

Chart patterns suggest several potential scenarios for the EUR/USD forecast. The ascending triangle formation would complete with a breakout above 1.1670, projecting measured moves toward 1.1750. Alternatively, a breakdown below 1.1620 would invalidate the bullish pattern structure. Volume profile analysis identifies high-volume nodes between 1.1640 and 1.1660, indicating price acceptance in this region.

Risk Factors and Market Sentiment Indicators

Several risk factors could alter the current EUR/USD forecast trajectory. Geopolitical developments in Eastern Europe continue to influence euro sentiment, particularly regarding energy market stability. Additionally, unexpected central bank communications from either the ECB or Fed could override technical considerations. Market sentiment indicators show retail traders maintaining net long positions, while institutional positioning appears more balanced.

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report provides positioning context for the EUR/USD forecast. Commercial hedgers increased long euro positions recently, while leveraged funds reduced net short exposure. This positioning shift suggests professional money flows may be anticipating euro strength. Open interest in EUR/USD futures contracts remains elevated near yearly highs, indicating sustained market participation.

Trading Implications and Strategy Considerations

The current EUR/USD forecast presents distinct trading implications across different timeframes. Swing traders monitor the 1.1670 breakout level for potential trend continuation signals. Day traders focus on intraday support and resistance reactions, particularly around European and U.S. session overlaps. Position traders consider broader fundamental developments while respecting technical boundaries.

Risk management parameters derive naturally from the technical landscape. Stop-loss placements below 1.1620 protect against pattern invalidation, while breakout scenarios above 1.1670 warrant trailing stop methodologies. Position sizing should account for the potential volatility expansion following a confirmed breakout or breakdown. Correlation analysis with other dollar pairs provides additional confirmation signals for directional bias.

Seasonal patterns offer supplementary context for the EUR/USD forecast. Historically, December trading often features reduced liquidity but increased volatility during year-end positioning adjustments. The pair has shown positive December returns in seven of the past ten years, though past performance never guarantees future results. This seasonal tendency may influence institutional behavior around current technical levels.

Conclusion

The EUR/USD price forecast reveals a market at a critical technical juncture with bears demonstrating hesitation despite apparent pressure. The 1.1670 resistance level represents a decisive barrier whose breach would signal renewed bullish momentum and potentially trigger algorithmic buying programs. Technical indicators suggest balanced conditions that favor breakout scenarios in either direction, though chart patterns lean cautiously bullish. Market participants should monitor price action around identified key levels while maintaining flexible risk parameters that acknowledge both breakout potential and false signal risks inherent in current market conditions.

FAQs

Q1: What makes the 1.1670 level particularly significant in the current EUR/USD forecast?
The 1.1670 level represents a confluence of technical factors including a key Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%), previous swing high resistance, and a psychological round number. Multiple tests of this level increase its technical significance for determining near-term direction.

Q2: How does current market volatility affect the EUR/USD breakout potential?
Reduced volatility, as indicated by contracting Bollinger Bands, typically precedes volatility expansion and directional moves. The current low-volatility environment suggests an impending resolution of the trading range, though the direction remains uncertain until confirmed by price action.

Q3: What fundamental factors could override the technical EUR/USD forecast?
Unexpected central bank policy shifts, particularly from the ECB or Federal Reserve, could override technical considerations. Additionally, significant geopolitical developments or extreme economic data surprises could drive price action outside technically defined ranges.

Q4: How reliable are chart patterns like the potential ascending triangle in current market conditions?
Chart patterns provide probabilistic frameworks rather than certain predictions. The potential ascending triangle pattern suggests bullish resolution but requires confirmation above 1.1670 with accompanying volume. False breakouts remain common in low-volatility environments.

Q5: What timeframes are most relevant for the current EUR/USD analysis?
The analysis applies across multiple timeframes but finds particular relevance on daily and four-hour charts for swing trading perspectives. Intraday traders might focus on hourly charts for entry precision, while longer-term investors should consider weekly charts for broader context.

This post EUR/USD Price Forecast: Critical Analysis Reveals Hesitant Bears as Breakout Above 1.1670 Remains in Play first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

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11 04, 2026

GBP/JPY Forecast: Critical Bullish Breakout Looms Above Formidable 214.00-215.00 Resistance

By |2026-04-11T13:10:03+02:00April 11, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments















GBP/JPY Forecast: Critical Bullish Breakout Looms Above Formidable 214.00-215.00 Resistance


































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11 04, 2026

Coffee prices on April 11: Regaining momentum for recovery

By |2026-04-11T09:15:55+02:00April 11, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market this morning, April 11, recovered after a day of downward adjustment.

According to surveys in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, coffee prices simultaneously increased slightly from 200 to 300 VND/kg, bringing the average price level of the whole region to the threshold of 85,700 VND/kg.

In Dak Nong province (old), the purchase price recorded an increase of 200 VND, pushing the price to the highest in the region at 85,800 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai localities respectively increased by 200 – 300 VND, currently trading stably at the 85. 700 VND/kg mark.

With the same increase of 200 VND, Lam Dong province listed it at 85. 200 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

On the international market, futures exchanges also recorded a slight increase. The New York exchange led the upward trend when Arabica futures for May 2026 surged by 6.4 cents (equivalent to 2.18%), closing at 300.10 cents/lb.

In the same period, the London exchange also witnessed the Robusta line recovering slightly by another 14 USD (equivalent to 0.42%), closing the session at 3,324 USD/ton.

Coffee prices closed the session up again, in which Arabica coffee reached the highest level in 1 week, while Robusta recovered from the lowest level of the most recent contract in 8.5 months. The strengthening of the Brazilian real supported coffee prices as the real exchange rate against the USD rose to the highest level in 2 years yesterday. The strong real caused Brazilian coffee producers to limit export sales.

Market outlook

The scarcity of Robusta coffee supply has continued to support prices. Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange fell to their lowest level in more than 1 year, to 3,977 lots. However, increased Arabica inventories are putting pressure on prices.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted global transportation and tightened coffee supply. This move increased transportation costs, insurance and fuel costs, thereby pushing up coffee import and roasting costs.

However, coffee exports increased sharply from Vietnam – the world’s largest Robusta producer, which is also putting pressure on Robusta prices to fall. According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 3 months of 2026 increased by 14% compared to the same period, reaching 585,000 tons. In 2025, exports increased by 17.5% to 1.58 million tons. Production in the 2025/26 crop year is also forecast to increase by 6% to 1.76 million tons (equivalent to 29.4 million bags), the highest level in 4 years.

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) said that global coffee exports in the current crop year (October – September) decreased by 0.3% compared to the same period, to 138.658 million bags.

The actual price at the purchasing yards may differ depending on the quality of the seeds and the actual transaction agreement.





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11 04, 2026

GBP/USD Forecast: Technicals turn slightly bullish for Pound Sterling amid Mideast drama

By |2026-04-11T09:09:08+02:00April 11, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The Pound Sterling (GBP) staged a stellar recovery from near four-month lows against the US Dollar (USD) and clinched two-month highs just shy of the 1.3500 threshold.

Pound Sterling bulls returned with a bang

The week started with the domination of safe-haven flows and the risk-sensitive Pound Sterling in multi-month troughs.

Markets remained nervous as they weighed US President Donald Trump’s social media threat posted on Sunday, in which he ratcheted up pressure on Iran, while extending the deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to Tuesday at 8 PM Eastern Time or Wednesday 00:00 GMT.

On the other side, Iran mulled a “much more devastating” retaliation if civilian targets are hit.  Against the deepening escalation in the Middle East conflict, investors scurried for safety in the world’s reserve currency, the USD, once again, extending its recovery.

The Greenback also capitalized on the increased expectations about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook, especially after a blockbuster February jobs report.

Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Friday showed that US Nonfarm Payrolls jumped by 178K in March, against the consensus of +60K and a 133K drop recorded in February (revised down from -92K). The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3%, vs. 4.4% consensus and 4.4% prior.

However, the GBP/USD showed some resilience and embarked upon a recovery as the USD failed to sustain at higher levels against its major counterparts. The tide entirely turned against the buck following Trump’s TACO trade early Wednesday, which provided legs to the GBP/USD rebound.

Risk-on flows returned with a bang after the United States (US) and Iran brokered a two-week ceasefire and agreed to enter negotiations on April 10, potentially paving the way for a lasting peace in the Middle East and resumption of Gulf oil and gas exports through the vital Strait of Hormuz.

In light of the de-escalation, the currency pair stretched higher and reached the highest levels in two months just below 1.3500.

However, GBP/USD sellers quickly jumped in and triggered a sharp retracement amid investors’ concerns over whether Trump would stick to the ceasefire agreement ahead of Friday’s negotiations on the ten-point proposal.

The Iranian proposal submitted to the US on Wednesday included maximalist demands that the Trump administration previously rejected.

The Greenback regained its safe-haven bid in the latter part of the week as doubts about the Mideast ceasefire countered the dovish Minutes of the Fed’s March monetary policy meeting.

Israel continued its attacks on the Iran-aligned militant group, Hezbollah, in Lebanon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that the announcement said that the ceasefire included Lebanon.

On Friday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that there is “no ceasefire in Lebanon” and Israel would continue “to strike Hezbollah with full force”. Late Thursday, Netanyahu had issued an instruction to start direct negotiations with Lebanon “as soon as possible,” per the Washington Post.

Also, sentiment remained fragile and kept the pair on the back foot ahead of the highly-anticipated US-Iran peace talks and the top-tier Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the US.

The BLS reported ahead of the weekend that annual inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the CPI, climbed to 3.3% in March from 2.4% in February. This print came in line with the market expectation. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, compared to analysts’ estimate of 0.3%. The USD struggled to gather strength following these data and allowed GBP/USD to remain in the upper half of its weekly range.

Middle East updates and Bailey’s speech on tap

After an eventful week, the focus will continue to remain on any signs of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict following Friday’s US-Iran negotiations.

The economic calendar is relatively light in the US, while the UK docket has several appearances of the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey throughout the week.

Monday is devoid of any high-impact macro releases, while Tuesday features the US ADP four-week Employment Change and Producer Price Index (PPI) data.

Bailey is scheduled to participate in a moderated discussion about the future of central banking at Columbia University, in New York, later on Tuesday. A bunch of Fed policymakers are also lined up that day.

Bailey will speak on Wednesday at two separate events. On Thursday, the UK monthly growth and industrial numbers will be reported, followed by the US weekly Jobless Claims data.

The Fed and BoE officials are set to deliver their speeches on Friday, filling up the data-dry calendar.

Beyond the statistics and speeches from the central bank officials, developments on the US-Iran war will remain the main market driver.

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD daily chart

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3468, holding a constructive bullish tone as spot sits above the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day simple moving averages clustered between roughly 1.3324 and 1.3435. This stacked moving average support suggests the recent recovery remains intact, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 58 leans positive without yet flagging overbought conditions, hinting that buyers still retain control in the near term.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier near 1.3555, ahead of a stronger cap at 1.3700, where sellers may look to fade extended advances. On the downside, immediate protection is provided by the tight cluster of the 50-day SMA at 1.3435, the 100-day SMA at 1.3434 and the 200-day SMA at 1.3413, with the 20-day SMA lower at 1.3324 before more substantial horizontal support at 1.3221, 1.3160 and 1.3034.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Risk sentiment FAQs

In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

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11 04, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises to near $76.00 on easing rate hike bets

By |2026-04-11T05:13:46+02:00April 11, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak, trading around $76.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. The non-interest-bearing Silver found support as the United States (US)–Iran ceasefire triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, easing concerns over renewed inflation and further rate hikes by the central banks.

The dollar-denominated metal also benefited from a subdued US Dollar (USD) earlier this week, making it cheaper for foreign buyers. However, gains may be limited as the Greenback steadied amid renewed risk aversion driven by ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US–Iran ceasefire longevity.

Market sentiment stays cautious as Israel continues strikes on Hezbollah, despite Benjamin Netanyahu stating that Israel will soon begin direct negotiations with Lebanon. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said US forces will remain deployed around Iran until full compliance with the agreement is achieved.

Traders turned their attention to expected diplomatic talks in Islamabad this weekend, where US Vice President JD Vance may lead the American delegation in meetings with Iranian officials. However, uncertainty persists, with no official confirmation of delegates’ arrival on Friday.

The Federal Reserve March Meeting Minutes indicate policymakers are maintaining a wait-and-see approach, while acknowledging that inflation risks linked to higher oil prices are becoming more balanced. Traders are awaiting the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due later in the North American session, a key catalyst for near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) policy direction.

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.



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11 04, 2026

USD/JPY Forex Forecast 10/04: Pressures 160 (Video&Chart)

By |2026-04-11T05:08:05+02:00April 11, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The US dollar continues to bounce against the yen, waiting to see if we can break higher.

  • The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of noise in the interest rate environment.

  • The 158-yen level on the bottom of the range and the 160-yen level on the top is how I see the market right now.

Obviously, there is a lot going on that could greatly influence what happens next, not the least of which of course would be any ceasefire talks in the Middle East, but I would also watch very closely the 10-year yield in both countries, but specifically the United States.

The longer it stays above 4.3% the more likely it is the US dollar breaks out. It has fallen back below there during this session so we will see how that plays out. I suspect probably what you are going to see more than anything else is a lot of volatility over the next couple of days because we have those ceasefire talks on Friday in Islamabad, so we will have to see how that plays out.

Market Volatility and Key Resistance

It certainly looks like the USD/JPY market is pricing in some type of good news when I look at other assets. So, I anticipate that the US dollar may weaken a bit but ultimately this is a market that I also pay close attention to the 160.4-yen level because that would be an area that if we could break above it could really spell serious trouble for the Japanese yen.

That is a 1990 high that the US dollar made against the Japanese yen and if we were to break that, things could get ugly really fast. All things being equal, I do think this is a scenario where traders are going to have to be very patient, but I do think it also remains a buy-on-the-dip type of scenario as clearly the interest rate differential will continue to favor the US dollar.

Again, I think the 158-yen level continues to be a major support for the greenback right now and I do like the idea of buying closer to that, in fact I did overnight. But you can see just how noisy this market might end up being and with that being the case you do have to be somewhat cautious with your position sizing, but ultimately, I believe this is a market that will threaten that 160.4-yen level which is so important.

If we were to break down below the 50-day EMA then that obviously would be a major breakout just waiting to happen and, in that way, the Japanese yen probably strengthens across the board for not only moving against US dollar but maybe other currencies. The 156-yen level at that point for me would be the next support level.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

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11 04, 2026

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By |2026-04-11T01:13:09+02:00April 11, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


At 9 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil was priced at $97.78 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (we’ll explain different benchmarks later in this article). That’s a gain of $4.02 compared with yesterday morning and around $31 higher than the price one year ago.

Oil price per barrel % Change
Price of oil yesterday $93.76 +4.28%
Price of oil 1 month ago $108.90 10.21%
Price of oil 1 year ago $63.68 +53.54%
Price of oil yesterday
Oil price per barrel $93.76
% Change +4.28%
Price of oil 1 month ago
Oil price per barrel $108.90
% Change 10.21%
Price of oil 1 year ago
Oil price per barrel $63.68
% Change +53.54%

Will oil prices go up?

It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.

How oil prices translate to gas pump prices

Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.

Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”

The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.

It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.

How oil and natural gas prices are linked

Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.

Historical performance of oil

To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:

  • Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America

Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.

Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:

  • The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
  • Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
  • Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
  • During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.

All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.

Energy coverage from Fortune

Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:

Frequently asked questions

How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?

The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.

How often does the price of oil change during the day?

The price of oil updates constantly when the “futures” markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.

How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?

In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy we’ll have—and the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.

How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?

When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but it’s also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as it’s more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.



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