– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rises as UK Gilt Yields Hit Five-Week Low

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate climbed on Thursday as falling UK government borrowing costs provided support for Sterling following Wednesday’s Autumn Budget.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3370, up approximately 0.3% on the day.

The Pound (GBP) strengthened as investors continued to assess Chancellor John Healey’s first Autumn Budget, with the initial reaction in UK bond markets proving relatively encouraging.

Healey’s decision to adhere to the government’s fiscal rules appeared to reassure investors who had been concerned about the possibility of additional borrowing or measures that could undermine confidence in the public finances.

The Chancellor also avoided major policy surprises that might have unsettled gilt markets, helping UK government borrowing costs retreat further.

The benchmark 10-year gilt yield fell to its lowest level in five weeks, easing some of the pressure that elevated debt-servicing costs have placed on the Treasury.

Although falling yields can sometimes reduce a currency’s appeal by narrowing its interest rate advantage, Thursday’s decline appeared to reflect greater confidence in the UK’s fiscal position rather than expectations of looser Bank of England monetary policy.

This distinction helped Sterling benefit from the move, with investors welcoming signs that the Budget had avoided triggering another bout of bond market volatility.

Nevertheless, concerns about the UK’s economic outlook remain. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s downgrade to its 2027 growth forecast continues to raise questions about the strength of the economy over the coming year.

The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, weakened as improving market sentiment reduced demand for traditional safe-haven currencies.

The ‘Greenback’ had already come under pressure following Wednesday evening’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

As widely expected, policymakers left borrowing costs unchanged, but the accompanying guidance prompted markets to modestly reduce expectations of another rate increase in December.

This adjustment weighed on the Dollar, particularly as investors became more willing to move into riskier assets.

Sentiment also improved following reports of renewed diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the US and Iran.

A letter from US Vice President JD Vance to Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei was reportedly ‘received well’ by Tehran, raising hopes that negotiations between Washington and Iran could resume.

The prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough helped ease some of the geopolitical concerns that have supported demand for the safe-haven Dollar in recent months.

Stronger-than-expected US economic data failed to reverse the currency’s decline.

Preliminary figures showed that the American economy expanded at an annualised rate of 3.4% during the third quarter, accelerating from 2.2% in the previous three months.

The reading exceeded forecasts for 3.2% growth, suggesting that the US economy retained considerable momentum despite elevated borrowing costs.

However, the positive figures were insufficient to offset the pressure from improving risk appetite and reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Can Sterling Extend Recovery towards $1.34?

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate could remain sensitive to broader market sentiment on Friday, with few major economic releases scheduled in either the UK or US.

A continuation of Thursday’s more positive market mood could favour Sterling, particularly if investors remain encouraged by the reaction to the Autumn Budget.

Further declines in UK gilt yields would also provide some reassurance that Chancellor John Healey’s fiscal plans have avoided unsettling bond investors.

This could help GBP/USD challenge the $1.3400 level, which remains the immediate upside reference point following Thursday’s recovery.

A sustained move above this area would strengthen the case for further Sterling gains.

However, the Dollar could regain ground if geopolitical tensions intensify or global equity markets come under renewed pressure.

Developments in the Middle East will remain particularly important, with any setbacks in diplomatic efforts potentially reviving demand for safe-haven assets.

Investors will also continue assessing the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook following Wednesday’s decision.

Any renewed speculation that US policymakers could raise interest rates in December may provide additional support for the Dollar.

For GBP/USD, a retreat below $1.3350 could weaken the near-term recovery, potentially bringing the $1.3300 level back into focus.

The direction of UK bond yields and broader risk appetite will therefore remain important influences as the pairing approaches the end of the week.

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– Written by


James Fuller

STORY LINK British Pound to Euro Forecast: UK Budget Growth Downgrade Halts GBP Rally

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) retreated from 18-month highs above 1.1960 after Chancellor John Healey’s Budget revealed a sharp downgrade to the UK’s 2027 growth outlook.

Pound Sterling held close to 1.1940 as continued Euro weakness limited the decline, but reduced fiscal headroom and the decision to defer difficult spending choices raised questions over the sustainability of the government’s plans.

GBP/EUR Forecasts: Retreat from 18-Month Highs

Chancellor Healey’s budget did not have a major initial impact on the Pound. There were a few minor measures to help cut costs for many consumers, but Healey avoided any major measures on taxes or spending while the 2027 GDP growth forecast was cut sharply.

After hitting 18-month highs just above 1.1960, the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate retreated to near 1.1940 with a weak Euro still providing underlying Pound support.

According to ING, GBP/EUR can hold a firm tone; “we do not see any clear reasons why EUR/GBP needs to bounce at the moment.”

According to Rabobank Head of FX Strategy Jane Foley; “Right now, the budget hasn’t meant an awful lot for the pound. The silver lining of the (2022 Liz)Truss budget is it has created an environment where politicians don’t want to create any ruckus for the market.”

There will, however, need to be big adjustments to meet medium-term budget targets. There are also still important underlying stresses in global markets with a particular focus on energy prices.

Brent crude is trading at close to 6-month highs while gas prices increased again are trading at the highest level since late 2022.

Higher energy prices will put upward pressure on inflation, curb growth and have implications for Bank of England policy. If there is no relief soon, there will also be a big impact on fiscal with a risk that fiscal headroom will collapse.

There will also be a negative impact on the Euro-Zone with French bond concerns still hurting the single currency.

There was a small decline in the 10-year gilt yield after the budget while the FTSE 100 index secured a limited advance amid relief in the banking sector following a smaller than expected increase in banking-sector taxes.

As far as growth is concerned, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.0% in March, but the 2027 forecast has been lowered sharply to 1.0% from 1.6%.

As far as fiscal headroom is concerned, Healey stated that tax revenue will be £15bn above current spending in 2029/30 compared with £24bn in the March update.

BNP Paribas UK Economist Dani Stoilova commented; “We think the projected headroom of £15bn in 2029/30 was the minimum amount likely acceptable to the market given consensus expectations of £15-20bn”

He added; “The government has opted to defer significant, more contentious decisions (e.g. defence spending, welfare reforms) to future fiscal events, perhaps even to the next parliament. This means some uncertainty about the medium-term outlook for policy lingers, despite today’s announcements.”

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

Finally, the Australian dollar is an interesting market right now. We had broken above a resistance barrier and been repudiated twice. CPI in Australia increased to a reading of 4.3%, over the 4% in August, while the annual trimmed mean number was actually 3.6% instead of the anticipated 3.5%.

So, with that, it seems like with the RBA raising rates as of late, there should be some support, but the price action is a little bit hesitant. What I would like to see is a move back above the 0.7050 level on a sustained move, maybe a couple of hours. Then I would go long, looking to perhaps try to get to the 0.7120 level. That’s the plan at the moment. Whether or not that holds, we’ll have to wait and see.

The EURJPY pair kept providing temporary sideways trading by holding near 175.80 level, attempting to face the intraday positivity of stochastic to reinforce the dominance of the bearish bias, which depends on the stability of the extra barrier at 177.80.

Gaining the bearish momentum will increase the chances of attacking 174.90 support, where breaking will open the way for reaching new bearish stations that might begin at 174.55 and 173.95.

The expected trading range for today is between 175.00 and 176.55

Trend forecast: Sideways 

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Below 1.33 after UK Autumn Budget

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate struggled for direction on Wednesday as investors assessed the UK’s Autumn Budget and awaited the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3297, marginally below Wednesday’s opening levels.

The Pound (GBP) struggled to attract support after Chancellor John Healey delivered his first Autumn Budget, with the announcement offering few surprises capable of shifting expectations for the UK economy.

Healey outlined measures aimed at easing financial pressures on households and businesses, alongside funding for Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s regional devolution agenda.

However, the Chancellor adopted a relatively cautious approach to taxation and public spending, reflecting the constraints imposed by elevated borrowing costs and the government’s limited fiscal headroom.

The absence of major policy surprises initially left Sterling trading within a narrow range.

The Pound subsequently edged lower as investors turned their attention to updated economic forecasts accompanying the Budget.

Revised projections pointed to a sharper slowdown in UK economic growth during 2027 than previously anticipated.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) also warned that the country’s fiscal challenges had intensified since its previous assessment in March.

The weaker outlook raised questions about the government’s ability to support economic activity while maintaining control of public borrowing.

For Sterling, the concern is that slower growth could weaken tax revenues and place further pressure on the Treasury’s finances, potentially limiting the Bank of England’s room to pursue additional monetary tightening.

Nevertheless, the relatively measured nature of Healey’s Budget appeared to prevent a more pronounced sell-off in the Pound.

The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, traded within a narrow range as investors awaited Wednesday evening’s Federal Reserve interest rate announcement.

Policymakers are widely expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at 18:00 GMT, following September’s 25-basis-point increase, which marked the first US rate hike in three years.

With the decision largely anticipated, attention will focus on the accompanying policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

Persistent US inflation has strengthened expectations that the central bank could maintain a relatively hawkish stance, even if policymakers decide against another immediate increase.

Any indication that officials remain concerned about underlying price pressures could revive expectations for a December rate hike, potentially providing renewed support for the Dollar.

Conversely, a more cautious assessment of the economic outlook could reduce expectations for further tightening and leave the US currency vulnerable to selling pressure.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US GDP and Fed Guidance Could Test $1.33

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate could experience increased volatility as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement and Thursday’s US economic growth figures.

Preliminary third-quarter GDP data are expected to show annualised growth accelerating from 2.2% to 3.2%, suggesting the American economy maintained considerable momentum through the summer.

A stronger-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve has room to raise interest rates again, potentially lifting the Dollar.

Combined with hawkish guidance from Wednesday’s policy meeting, robust GDP figures could put additional pressure on GBP/USD.

The $1.3300 level remains an important near-term reference point, with a sustained move below this area potentially exposing the $1.3250 region.

However, disappointing US growth figures or a less hawkish message from the Fed could allow Sterling to recover towards $1.3350.

For the Pound, investors will continue assessing the implications of Wednesday’s Autumn Budget.

The reaction of UK government bond markets will be particularly important, with any renewed increase in gilt yields potentially signalling concerns about the outlook for public borrowing.

A stable bond market response could offer Sterling some reassurance, while further evidence that the UK’s growth prospects are deteriorating may limit the currency’s ability to recover.

With both the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and the UK’s fiscal position under scrutiny, GBP/USD may remain sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations over the coming sessions.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts