The EURJPY pair began this morning with new positive trading, attempting to settle above 186.00, to increase the efficiency of the previously suggested trend, while gathering extra positive momentum makes us expect its rally towards 186.65 level, attempting to resume the bullish trend, reaching the next main target near 187.35.
The failure of confirming the breach will increase the chances of forming temporary corrective waves, to attempt to reach 185.40, to test the main support at 184.80 before any attempt to record the previously suggested targets.
The expected trading range for today is between 185.50 and 186.60
Copper price neediness to the positive momentum led it to form more correction waves, to move away from $6.6600, to keep providing weak sideways trading by its stability near $6.3500 level.
The sideways trading might continue with potential test to the initial support at $6.1000, which forms confirmation key for the suggested trend in the near period, breaking the support and holding below it will push the price to resume the corrective attempts, which might target $5.8200 reaching $5.5000.
The expected trading range for today is between $6.1000 and $6.5100
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) dropped sharply to 1.3375, down around 0.35% on the day, after the latest US labour market report comfortably exceeded expectations.
US non-farm payrolls rose by 172,000 in May, more than double consensus forecasts of 85,000, while unemployment held steady at 4.3%, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance and providing broad support for the US Dollar.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Finds Support Near 1.34
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate again found support just above the 1.3400 level on Thursday and rallied to near 1.3460.
The dollar lost ground amid fresh hopes that there could be some form of US-Iran deal. There was an element of relief in the bond market as the 10-year yield drifted lower while equities rallied from intra-day lows, but the PMI construction index slipped further to a 6-year low.
UoB considers that GBP/USD still has work to do; “as long as GBP holds below 1.3470 (‘strong resistance’ level), the risk of GBP breaking below 1.3390 will increase over the next few days.”
ING maintains a positive short-term view on the US currency; “It’s hard to argue against dollar strength at this juncture. Data continues to paint a picture of resilience for the US economy – ADP payrolls and ISM services were both firm yesterday – and fresh US-Iran military exchanges have driven a risk-off shift in global markets.”
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ING is also cautious over the Middle East situation; “Yesterday’s House resolution to end the war is meaningful, but it doesn’t block new military operations. It highlights domestic pressure for a peace deal, but markets already understand this, and it has not yet translated into tangible progress in negotiations.”
As far as data is concerned, US initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 in the latest week from 215,000 the previous week while there was a 3.4% annual increase in Challenger job cuts.
The US employment report will be released on Friday. Consensus forecasts are for an increase in non-farm payrolls of around 85,000 from 115,000 the previous month with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%.
According to Bank of America; “We look for another upside NFP surprise (95k forecast vs. 85k consensus) with risks to the upside, and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%. Education & health should continue to lead, followed by trade & transport and leisure & hospitality.”
MUFG commented; “Jobs data today and tomorrow will be key ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first monetary policy meeting and press conference. How influential will Warsh be? And what will his initial leaning be regarding inflation risks?
It added; “Whether tomorrow’s NFP is strong and whether the SoH (Strait of Hormuz)has reopened by then will be important. If the escalation in clashes in the Middle East persist, the pricing of a rate hike this year will increase further and with the data holding up the positive momentum for the US dollar looks set to continue.”
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2026.06.05 2026.06.05 XAU/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 05.06.26–12.06.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 4,372.95 with a target of 5,610.00–6,000.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 4,372.95. Stop Loss: below 4,300.00, Take Profit: 5,610.00–6,000.00.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 4,372.95 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,075.30–3,718.62. A sell signal: the level of 4,372.95 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 4,450.00, Take Profit: 4,075.30–3,718.62.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 4,372.95 with a target of 5,610.00–6,000.00.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 4,372.95 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,075.30–3,718.62.
Analysis
An ascending fifth wave of larger degree 5 is presumably developing on the weekly chart, with wave (3) of 5 forming as its part. The third wave of smaller degree 3 of (3) appears to continue forming on the daily chart, with wave v of 3 developing as its part. The H4 time frame shows that a local correction (ii) of v has been completed, and wave (iii) of v has presumably started unfolding. If the presumption is correct, XAU/USD will continue to rise to 5,610.00–6,000.00. The level of 4,372.95 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 4,075.30–3,718.62.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
2026.06.05 2026.06.05 USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 05.06.26–12.06.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below 160.70 with a target of 152.10–145.50. A sell signal: the price holds below 160.70. Stop Loss: above 161.20, Take Profit: 152.10–145.50.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 160.70 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 165.00–170.00. A buy signal: the level of 160.70 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 160.20, Take Profit: 165.00–170.00.
Main Scenario
Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 160.70 with a target of 152.10–145.50.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation above 160.70 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 165.00–170.00.
Analysis
An ascending third wave of larger degree 3 has formed on the weekly chart, and a bearish correction is developing as the fourth wave 4. On the daily time frame, wave (B) of 4 has presumably been completed, and a descending wave (C) of 4 has started to form. The first wave of smaller degree 1 of (C) is unfolding on the H4 chart. Within this structure, wave i of 1 has been completed, and a local corrective wave ii of 1 has likely formed. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to decline to 152.10–145.50 within wave iii of 1. The level of 160.70 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 165.00–170.00.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
Copper price neediness to the positive momentum led it to form more correction waves, to move away from $6.6600, to keep providing weak sideways trading by its stability near $6.3500 level.
The sideways trading might continue with potential test to the initial support at $6.1000, which forms confirmation key for the suggested trend in the near period, breaking the support and holding below it will push the price to resume the corrective attempts, which might target $5.8200 reaching $5.5000.
The expected trading range for today is between $6.1000 and $6.5100
The Euro rallied a bit during the trading session on Thursday to bounce from the 1.16 region.
The 200-day EMA continues to be a major attractor of markets, with the 50-day EMA above near the 1.1665 level offering resistance.
That being said, I think we’re basically compressed between 1.16 and 1.17, and with the jobs number coming out on Friday, it’s possible that we will just sit still in the meantime, waiting for the interest rates reaction to the number, be it better or worse than anticipated, and then I think that gives you a little bit of a heads-up.
Interest Rates and Market Clarity
It is worth noting that interest rates did slip a bit early during the trading session on Thursday, so that has put a little bit of strength back into the Euro as the US rates are now right around 4.46.
That being said, from a historical perspective, they are a little bit elevated, and when you look at the EUR/USD charts from a longer-term perspective, the 1.14 level underneath is a floor in the market with the 1.1850 level above being a bit of a ceiling.
We are basically right in the middle of that as one would expect when the market is just waiting for some type of clarity, not only from the jobs report, not only from interest rates in the United States and Germany as well, but the reaction of interest rates to any news coming out of the Middle East. We are essentially in a tight range, I think short-term traders will continue to work this 100-pip range until something actually changes.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 2% to near $72.40 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal faces intense selling pressure as Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members have warned of high inflation pressures, and have guided that the choice is between holding interest rates at their current levels or raising them.
Theoretically, high Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US NFP report is expected to show that the economy created 85K fresh jobs, lower than 115K in April. The Unemployment Rate is seen steady at 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings, a key measure of wage growth, is estimated to have cooled down to 3.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) from the previous reading of 3.6%.
Signs of strong job demand would force traders to raise hawkish Fed bets for the year; however, soft numbers would have a little impact on Fed market expectations as officials seem to be more concerned about high inflation.
Economic Indicator
Nonfarm Payrolls
The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months’ reviews and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market’s reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.
Brent crude oil price remains in a narrow range this week as investors watch the new developments in the ongoing US-Iran crisis. It was trading at $95.40 today, June 5, after Hezbollah rejected the new ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
Odds of new fighting rise as Hezbollah rejects ceasefire
Brent and the West Texas Intermediate have barely moved this week as investors assessed the current phase of the US-Iran crisis and the dwindling US Strategic Reserves.
Odds of a quick deal between the two sides have now dropped substantially this week as ceasefire talks stalled. Worse, the recent ray of hope between Israel and Lebanon found a major roadblock after Hezbollah rejected the ceasefire.
Hezbollah argued that the ceasefire was not in Lebanon’s interest and amounted to surrender. This means that the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel will continue in the foreseeable future, something that Israel wants.
The challenge, however, is that Iran has insisted that any deal with the US will be contigent on the developments in Lebanon.
Therefore, there is a real risk that the US and Iran will restart their bombing campaigns. Just this week, Iran launched a barrage of missiles towards Kuwait in response to US attacks on its targets.
A renewed phase of fighting would be risky for the world economy, as it would push crude oil prices much higher than where they are today. Besides, data show that US oil inventories have continued falling, while drawdowns from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) have accelerated and moved to the lowest level in years. If this trend continues, chances are that these reserves wil run out in months.
US driving season is underway
At the same time, the US is now in its driving season,where petroleum demand is usually at its highest. As a result, some top officials and experts warn of an impending danger in the world’s oil market if the Strait of Hormuz continues its closure for longer.
Before the war, 20.3 million barrels of oil used to pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day. This figure has now been reduced to near zero by Iran’s closure and the US blockade.
The world has found some extra oil, with Saudi Arabia boosting its pipeline exports, surging to 7 million barrels per day. Oil exports from the US and other countries like Canada has soared. This, however, has not been enough to offset the losses from the Strait.
Brent crude oil price technical analysis
Brent crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart reveals that Brent crude oil price has been sending mixed signals in the past few weeks. On the one hand, it has moved below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bears remain in control.
Brent has also formed a double-top pattern, a common bearish reversal sign in technical analysis. If this happens, Brent may drop to the key support level at $60.
On the other hand, Brent has formed an island reversal pattern, which happens after a big down gap. If this happens, the price may rebound and move above the key resistance level at $100. Such a move may also push it to $110 and above.
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded modestly higher on Thursday as improving geopolitical sentiment reduced demand for traditional safe-haven currencies.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was changing hands at approximately $1.3431, up slightly from the beginning of Thursday’s European session.
The US Dollar (USD) struggled to find support on Thursday as investors responded positively to signs of de-escalation in the Middle East.
Market sentiment improved following confirmation that Israel and Lebanon had agreed to a ceasefire arrangement brokered by the United States, with the deal intended to reduce tensions along the border and pave the way for broader regional negotiations.
The announcement fuelled speculation that diplomatic discussions between Washington and Tehran could soon regain momentum, particularly after Iranian officials threatened to walk away from talks while hostilities in Lebanon continued.
Despite this, losses for the ‘Greenback’ remained relatively limited as investors remained wary of the fragile nature of the ceasefire agreement. In addition, many traders preferred to remain on the sidelines ahead of the release of key US labour market data later in the week.
The Pound (GBP) posted modest gains against the US Dollar on Thursday but otherwise traded in a relatively narrow range against its major counterparts.
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With little in the way of notable UK economic releases, Sterling struggled to establish a clear direction through the European session.
At the same time, movement in UK government bond markets was limited, with gilt yields holding broadly steady and offering little support or pressure to the currency.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Payrolls Data to Drive Market Sentiment?
Looking ahead, attention is likely to shift away from geopolitical developments and towards Friday’s highly anticipated US non-farm payrolls report.
The latest labour market figures could influence the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate if they reinforce expectations that the US economy remained resilient throughout May.
A stronger reading may provide support for the US Dollar by encouraging speculation that the Federal Reserve could still consider raising interest rates before the end of the year.
Meanwhile, Sterling investors will also be monitoring comments from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey. Any indication that policymakers remain reluctant to tighten monetary policy further could weigh on the Pound as the week draws to a close.
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