Copper price remains affected by the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, as it provided new sideways fluctuations, to keep its negative stability below the barrier at $5.5100, to support the chances of renewing the corrective attempts in the near and medium period.
While gaining negative momentum will increase the chances of reaching $5.2700 level, forming the initial target in the current period reaching $4.9500, while breaching the barrier will confirm delaying the negative attempts, to expect recording some gains by its rally towards $5.6300 and $5.7500.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.2700 and $5.5500
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slipped to its lowest level in a fortnight on Monday, as escalating geopolitical tensions dampened market sentiment and drove demand for safer assets.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3229, down roughly 0.2% on the day.
The US Dollar firmed at the beginning of the week, supported by a cautious market mood as investors gravitated towards safer assets amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
Risk aversion strengthened after Yemen’s Houthi forces, closely aligned with Iran, entered the conflict over the weekend, fuelling fears of a wider regional escalation and increased global economic disruption.
Comments from President Donald Trump sparked some fluctuation but ultimately added to the sense of geopolitical uncertainty.
Although Trump indicated that Iran was allowing 20 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a present and referenced serious discussions between the two sides, he also renewed threats to target Iranian energy infrastructure if the strait is not reopened swiftly.
Ongoing concerns that the conflict could intensify and inflict significant damage on the global economy unsettled markets, boosting demand for the US Dollar.
Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
The Pound struggled to gain traction against the backdrop of a risk-off market environment.
With investors favouring safer assets, Sterling remained on the back foot as sentiment deteriorated.
A lack of notable UK economic data left the currency without clear direction, with no major domestic releases to help guide movement.
Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Data in Focus
The UK’s final GDP reading for the fourth quarter of 2025 could shape movement in the Pound. If the data confirms that the economy expanded by only 0.1%, Sterling may face some downside pressure, while any revision could trigger more pronounced volatility.
For the US Dollar, February’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey may act as a potential headwind if it shows a decline in the number of available roles.
A forecast drop in US consumer confidence for March could also weigh on the US Dollar, as rising prices linked to the conflict in Iran dampen household sentiment.
Developments in the Middle East will remain a key driver. A cautious market mood and fears of further escalation could bolster the US Dollar and potentially push the pairing lower.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Monday, supported by a pullback in US Treasury yields as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is trading around $70.50, up nearly 1% on the day. However, a broadly stronger US Dollar (USD) is limiting follow-through buying.
US Treasury yields are pulling back after a recent surge to multi-month highs, with the benchmark 10-year yield down more than 6 basis points (bps) to around 4.35% on Monday. Earlier, markets had priced in at least two rate cuts before the US-Iran war, but rising Oil prices briefly lifted expectations of rate hikes toward year-end.
Those bets are now being scaled back, with traders increasingly expecting the Fed to hold rates steady through 2026, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This shift reflects growing concerns that higher interest rates, combined with elevated energy prices, could weigh on economic growth, reducing the need for tightening.
That said, despite the recent stabilization, Silver is likely to remain volatile as shifting rate expectations and ongoing Middle East tensions continue to drive market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, the near-term outlook for XAG/USD is neutral to bearish, as prices remain capped below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $74.96 after slipping below it earlier this month.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 40, indicating weak momentum and keeping downside pressure intact without signaling oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero, though the line edges higher toward the signal line, which hints at fading bearish momentum rather than a confirmed shift higher.
Immediate resistance emerges at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $74.43, measured from the $61.01 low to the $96.15 high, with the 50% retracement at $78.58 as the next hurdle if a bounce extends.
On the downside, initial support is seen near the recent lows around $68, which converges with the 78.6% retracement at $68.53, forming a key defensive area for buyers.
A decisive break below this zone would expose the psychological $65 handle and bring the 200-day SMA near $58 into focus, while recovery above $74.43 would ease immediate bearish pressure and open the way toward $78.58.
Inflation FAQs
Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it.
Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Platinum price remains affected by stochastic positivity, which contradicts the bearish corrective scenario, recording some extra gains by reaching $1913.00 level, the price keeps providing positive trading until testing the bearish channel’s resistance at $1968.00, to begin forming new bearish waves to activate the bearish corrective scenario again.
The moving average 55 stability is near the previously mentioned resistance, to support the stability of the chances of targeting the negative stations, holding near $1835.00 and $1745.00 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $1775.00 and $1950.00
Gold edges higher beyond $4,500 with technical indicators turning bullish.
The US Dollar Index remains firm but is nearing a key resistance area.
Above the Fibonacci retracement at $4,610, bulls might target the key $5,000 area.
Gold (XAU/USD) reversal from early March highs at $5,420 seems to have found support at $4,100 last week, and the pair has been showing a moderate positive tone over the last few days.
The US Dollar Index maintains a strong trend, favoured by higher US Treasury yields amid rising hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will be forced to change course and hike interest rates at least once this year. The DXY, however, is nearing a key resistance area at 100.50. If bulls fail again at that level, we might see a deeper correction in Gold.
Technical Analysis
The 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD trading at $4,532. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price rebounds from last week’s lows, with technical indicators coming up from heavily oversold levels, and the higher low suggesting that the bearish trend has lost steam.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed to 53.58, edging above the 50 midline and suggesting improving upside momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands above the Signal line in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram, which reinforces a moderate bullish momentum.
Price action suggests that we are in a C-D leg of a Gartley pattern, with immediate resistance at the 38.2% Fobonacci retracement of the March sell-off, around $4,610. A confirmation above here would expose the March 20 high at the $4,735 area, although the most plausible target for a bullish correction is the $5,040 area, a previous support-turned-resistance on March 16 and 17.
On the downside, initial support is at the March 26 low of $4,355, ahead of the mentioned March 23 low at the $4,100 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on March 30 at 11:40 GMT to say that $4,735 was the March 20 high, and not the March 20 low, and that the $4,355 low was hit on March 26 and not last Friday as previously stated)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
EUR/JPY depreciates after registering modest gains in the previous trading day, hovering around 183.60 during the European hours on Monday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the currency cross remains within the upper boundary of the ascending triangle pattern, reflecting rising buying pressure.
The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while the nine-day EMA rises above it, signaling short-term upside pressure. The pair has rebounded from the 180.81 support area and continues to print higher lows, keeping the broader uptrend intact.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slipped back toward the 50 line, showing fading upside momentum but not yet signaling bearish pressure, which keeps the focus on dip-buying interest while the EUR/JPY cross trades above nearby support.
The immediate barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 183.91, followed by the upper ascending triangle boundary around 184.60. A successful breakout above the triangle would reinforce the bullish bias and lead the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the 50-day EMA at 183.37, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending triangle around 182.50. A break below the channel would expose the three-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.09%
0.11%
-0.40%
0.10%
0.36%
0.39%
0.12%
EUR
-0.09%
0.00%
-0.48%
0.00%
0.31%
0.30%
0.02%
GBP
-0.11%
0.00%
-0.51%
0.00%
0.29%
0.29%
0.01%
JPY
0.40%
0.48%
0.51%
0.50%
0.77%
0.77%
0.50%
CAD
-0.10%
-0.00%
-0.00%
-0.50%
0.27%
0.22%
-0.00%
AUD
-0.36%
-0.31%
-0.29%
-0.77%
-0.27%
0.00%
-0.26%
NZD
-0.39%
-0.30%
-0.29%
-0.77%
-0.22%
-0.01%
-0.29%
CHF
-0.12%
-0.02%
-0.01%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.26%
0.29%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Platinum price remains affected by stochastic positivity, which contradicts the bearish corrective scenario, recording some extra gains by reaching $1913.00 level, the price keeps providing positive trading until testing the bearish channel’s resistance at $1968.00, to begin forming new bearish waves to activate the bearish corrective scenario again.
The moving average 55 stability is near the previously mentioned resistance, to support the stability of the chances of targeting the negative stations, holding near $1835.00 and $1745.00 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $1775.00 and $1950.00
The USD/JPY pair retreats sharply from the vicinity of mid-160.00s, or a fresh high since July 2024, touched during the Asian session on Monday, and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day winning streak. Spot prices drop to a fresh daily trough, around the 159.70-159.65 region in the last hour, though the downside potential seems limited.
Comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda and Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs, Atsushi Mimura, fueled speculations that authorities would step in to stem weakness in the domestic currency. This, in turn, prompts aggressive short-covering around the Japanese Yen (JPY) and weighs on the USD/JPY pair. That said, economic concerns on the back of the escalating conflicts in the Middle East might keep a lid on any meaningful JPY appreciation.
The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the USD/JPY pair holds well above the rising 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, spot prices continue to respect the ascending support trend line that originated around 157.20, reinforcing a pattern of higher lows. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54 keeps momentum in neutral-to-positive territory, consistent with a grind higher rather than a sharp impulsive move.
Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stays marginally above its signal line in positive territory, though with a contracting histogram, which suggests upside momentum is present but not accelerating. Hence, any subsequent slide is likely to find some support near 159.40, and a break would expose the 159.00 region, followed by a deeper support at the 100-period EMA around 158.70.
As long as these levels hold, buyers could focus on resistance at 160.20, followed by the recent high zone around 160.30. A clear move above 160.30 would open the way toward the 160.80 area, while a sustained drop below 158.70 would negate the upside bias and signal a broader corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The domestic coffee market this morning, March 30, did not have much fluctuation compared to Sunday’s holiday. The average purchase price in the Central Highlands region is still anchored at 92,400 VND/kg. Notably, the Lam Dong area recorded a slight increase of 200 VND/kg, while other localities kept prices unchanged to listen to signals from international exchanges that will reopen tonight.
Detailed purchase prices in regions:
Dak Nong (old): Continuing to maintain the highest price in the region at 92,500 VND/kg.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Stable trading at 92,300 VND/kg.
Lam Dong: Slightly increased by 200 VND, pushing the price to 91,700 VND/kg.
In general, the current price level has moved away from the peak of over 96,000 VND/kg in early March due to unfavorable information about global supply in the long term.
World coffee prices
At the end of last week’s trading session, coffee prices on both London and New York exchanges closed in the red.
New York Stock Exchange (Arabica): May 2026 term fell sharply 5.95 cents (-1.93%), closing at 301.70 cents/lb. Oversupply pressure surged after Marex Group Plc raised its Brazilian production forecast for the 2026/27 crop to a record level of 75.9 million bags (up 15.5% y/y), higher than Sucafina’s forecast (75.4 million bags) and StoneX’s (75.3 million bags).
London Stock Exchange (Robusta): May 2026 term slightly decreased by 3 USD (-0.08%), closing the session at 3,593 USD/ton. Robusta’s decline was curbed thanks to inventories on the ICE exchange continuing to fall to the lowest level in 3.25 months, leaving only 4,127 lots.
Market opinion
The coffee market is facing great supply pressure from South America. The continuous appearance of “super crop” forecast reports in Brazil along with Arabica’s ICE floor inventory reaching a 6-month peak (585.621 bags) is a major barrier to price increases.
However, supporting factors are still present as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt maritime transport, increase logistics costs and tighten short-term supply for international roasters. In Vietnam, exports in the first 2 months of the year increased by 14% to 360,000 tons, showing that the volume of goods is still being pushed to the market quite steadily.
It is forecasted that in the first sessions of this week, coffee prices will continue to be in a state of fluctuation in the range of 91,500 – 93,000 VND/kg. Farmers should closely monitor the technical recovery of the London exchange when inventories are still at a low level to balance sales.
Note: The actual price may vary depending on quality and locality.
The EUR/USD pair recovers a few pips after retesting a one-week low earlier this Monday and holds steady around the 1.1500 psychological mark during the Asian session. The upside, however, seems limited as rising geopolitical tensions might continue to benefit the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for spot prices.
Reports suggest that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran. Adding to this, the entry of the Iran-backed militant group in Yemen, the Houthis, raises the risk of a further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. This continues to weigh on investors’ sentiment. Furthermore, inflation fears stemming from elevated energy prices continue to fuel hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which could further underpin the USD and cap the upside for the EUR/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bearish as spot prices hold beneath the flat 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.1550, keeping upside attempts capped. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line fluctuates tightly around the signal and the zero line, and the muted histogram highlights a lack of strong directional momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 43 remains below the 50 midline, suggesting sellers retain a modest advantage despite the absence of impulsive downside.
Meanwhile, immediate resistance emerges at 1.1535, with a break exposing 1.1550 as the next barrier in line with the 200-hour EMA. A sustained move above 1.1550 would ease bearish pressure and open the door toward 1.1580. On the downside, initial support stands at 1.1490, followed by 1.1475 if selling pressure extends. A clear drop through 1.1475 would strengthen the bearish bias and target the 1.1450 area next.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
EUR/USD 1-hour chart
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
