Copper price attempted to settle above the initial support at $5.9700, however the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction pushed it to form new sideways fluctuation to settle near $6.0300.
The continuation of forming an obstacle at $6.1200 level against the bullish attempts will increase the chances of forming bearish corrective waves, to increase the chances of reaching $5.8900 and $5.8200, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will the way for resuming the bullish attempt, to reach $6.2500 initially.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.8900 and $6.1200
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has drifted around 1.3500, with markets cautious ahead of the upcoming Bank of England policy update and ongoing uncertainty surrounding energy prices and UK politics.
While stronger UK data has offered some support, rising cost pressures, leadership risks, and expectations that the Bank of England may hold rates are limiting Sterling’s upside.
GBP/USD Forecasts: BoE update due
ING forecasts that the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will edge lower to 1.33 at the end of 2026 before a slight gain to 1.36 at the end of next year.
GBP/USD drifted lower during the week to trade around 1.35 amid further uncertainty surrounding the Iran situation and mixed UK fundamentals.
Energy prices will remain a key short-term element. Matsui Securities commented; “Oil and the dollar are still moving pretty closely together, and with crude creeping back up, I’d say the dollar is still staying fairly firm.”
There were further political concerns during the week as the Mandelson scandal continued.
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ING commented; “the risk of a leadership change in Downing Street is growing. Markets are wary that a new prime minister – and, by extension, chancellor – might mean more borrowing and looser fiscal rules.
The headline UK PMI business confidence data was stronger than expected, but business confidence dipped to the lowest level since 2022 and there was a very sharp increase in cost pressures and prices.
The Bank of England remains in a very difficult position. Following the data, markets priced in a 75% chance of a rate hike by June.
ING discussed the April 30th BoE decision; “in short, we’d expect the Bank to keep its options open. Avoid doing anything that could add to rate hike bets in markets, but without trying to actively talk them down, either.
It added; “Ultimately, though, we don’t think the Bank will hike rates this year – not at the current level of energy prices. We expect rates to stay at 3.75% in April and June, and for the rest of 2026.”
Bank of America also remains cautious over the UK outlook; “Despite a much better unemployment reading, underlying weakness persists. And the unfolding energy shock will also revive fears of higher unemployment in the near-term.
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Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts upward amid escalating risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and potential supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf.
Operative Information Center-OMM reports that the adjustment was highlighted in a recent Bloomberg analysis. The investment bank now expects Brent crude to average $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, a significant increase from its previous estimate of $80 per barrel.
According to the bank’s analysts, the shift is primarily driven by a possible sharp decrease in oil supply from the Persian Gulf region. Goldman Sachs suggests that regional exports may not fully recover until the end of June. Furthermore, the bank projects a substantial supply deficit of approximately 9.6 million barrels per day in the global market during the current quarter, warning of potential negative impacts on the global economy if prices continue to climb.
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, with approximately one-fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passing through it daily. Any geopolitical instability in this region traditionally leads to volatility in global energy markets. For Azerbaijan, a significant exporter of crude oil and natural gas, fluctuations in global oil prices directly influence state revenues and the implementation of large-scale reconstruction projects in the liberated territories of Garabagh and East Zangezur.
The USD/JPY exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) publish their interest rate decisions. It was trading slightly below the important resistance level at 160 as traders wait for these events and as the Iran crisis continued.
BoJ interest rate decision
The USD to Japanese yen will be in focus this week as the BoJ releases the latest interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as it observes the impact of the ongoing war to the economy.
A report released on Friday showed that Japan’s inflation continued rising in March as the war boosted energy prices. This rise will continue as there are signs that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue for a while.
The US has been open to talks with Iran, which the latter has resisted. Last week, the Iranians remained non-commital on talks even as President Donald Trump insisted that they would happen. At some point, he noted that JD Vance was on his way to Pakistan only for his motorcade to show up in the White House.
The same situation happened during the weekend. To save face, Trump shared that the team would not travel to Pakistan, citing the fact that Iranian leaders were divided. Iran has rejected these claims.
In addition to the headline decision, the BoJ will likely provide a guidance on what to expect in the upcoming meetings. For one, the IMF has called for the bank to hike interest rates, which analysts believe is possible. Officials will also highlight measures to boost the Japanese yen, which has crashed in the past few years.
Federal Reserve decision and key macro data
The next key catalyst for the USD/JPY will be the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. Like the BoJ, analysts expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% in this meeting.
The bank, which has been under pressure to cut rates from Trump, sees no need to do so as inflation remains high. The most recent data showed that the headline consumer inflation jumped to 3.3% and the OECD expects it will rise to 4.3% this year.
Worse, there are signs that the US is moving towards a stagflation, a period characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth. For example, an economic report expected this week will show that the economy expanded by less than two percent in the first quarter.
USD/JPY technical analysis
USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView
The weekly chart shows that the USD to JPY pair has moved to the psychological level at 160. It has moved comfortably above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, a sign that bulls are in control.
The pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is made up of a horizontal support and a diagonal line. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it rebounds, potentially to the key resistance level at 163.
Oil Prices today: Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter to $90 a barrel for Brent crude and $83 for U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), on lower output from the Middle East.
“The economic risks are larger than our crude base case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock,” GS analysts led by Daan Struyven said in an April 16 note.
Oil prices extended gains on Monday, rising nearly 2 per cent as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran stalled while shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, keeping global oil supplies tight.
Brent crude futures rose $2.16, or 2.05 per cent, to $107.49 a barrel, the highest since April 7, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $96.17 a barrel, up $1.77, or 1.88 per cent. Last week, Brent and WTI gained nearly 17 per cent and 13 per cent, respectively, the biggest weekly gains since the start of the war.
Hopes of reviving peace efforts receded during the weekend when U.S. President Donald Trump scrapped a planned trip to Islamabad by his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, even as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi arrived In Pakistan.
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“This move puts the ball squarely back in Iran’s court, and the clock is now ticking loudly,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note, adding that Tehran may be forced to shut production at its aging oil fields when it runs out of storage capacity.
Tehran has largely closed the strait while Washington has imposed a blockade of Iran’s ports. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained limited, with just one oil products tanker entering the Gulf on Sunday, shipping data from Kpler showed.
No news for GBPJPY pair until this moment, confined between 214.80 support, while 215.70 level keeps forming a strong barrier against the bullish attempts, forcing it to provide sideways trading by its fluctuation near 215.60.
Note that stochastic approach 80 level might help it to provide extra positive momentum to surpass the current barrier, reinforcing the chances of reaching new bullish stations that might begin at 216.40 and 216.90, while the failure of the breach will increase the chances of forming bearish corrective waves, to press on the previously mentioned support and surpassing it will make the initial main target at 214.10 level in the bearish trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.80 and 215.70
Gold finds fresh demand to retake the $4,700 level in Asia on Monday, as the US Dollar pauses its advance amid a recovery in risk sentiment and ahead of the key Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision due later this week.
Gold: Coming up for air pre-Fed?
Despite a stand-off between the United States (US) and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear program, alongside pervasive inflation fears due to elevated Oil prices, markets are hopeful that the Iran war could end soon, promoting a modest risk recovery.
US President Donald Trumo said early Monday that the “Iran war will end soon, and we will be victorious.”
“If Iran wants to talk, they can call us,” Trump added.
Following his remarks, Axios carried a story, citing a US official and two sources with knowledge of the matter, “Iran has given the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the war that includes putting off nuclear negotiations,” per Bloomberg.
The positive shift in risk tone curbs the haven demand for the US Dollar (USD), dragging lower while lifting the bullion.
However, it remains to be seen if Gold sustains the latest leg up as traders could refrain from placing fresh bets on the bright metal ahead of key central bank policy meetings this week, including the Fed event risk on Wednesday.
In the meantime, profit-taking and fresh developments in the Middle East conflict could lead the way for Gold traders.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,721.88. The metal holds just above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,719.11 and has pushed over a reclaimed descending trend line now tracking around $4,709.76, hinting at a mildly constructive tone despite still sitting beneath the 100-day SMA at $4,746.61 and the 50-day SMA near $4,864.12. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.34 is neutral, suggesting consolidation rather than a decisive trend, with price caught between nearby short-term support and the heavier overhead averages.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA around $4,746.61, with a break there exposing the more important 50-day SMA near $4,864.12 as the next barrier to recovery. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the reclaimed descending trend line around $4,709.76 and the nearby 21-day SMA at $4,719.11; a loss of this shelf would put focus on the higher rising trend support around $4,589.67, ahead of the lower uptrend line at $4,383.70 and the 200-day SMA at $4,257.49, where the broader bullish structure would be challenged.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
The GBP/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers in the vicinity of the 1.3500 psychological mark and climbs to over a one-week top during the Asian session on Monday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.3500s, up 0.10% for the day, and seem poised to appreciate further.
The US Dollar (USD) turns lower in reaction to the optimism led by reports that Iran gave the US a new proposal on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the ending of the war. Furthermore, sliding Oil prices ease inflationary concerns and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which exerts additional pressure on the USD and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Apart from this, bets for further policy tightening by the Bank of England (BoE) this year underpin the British Pound (GBP) and validate the positive outlook for the currency pair.
The recent corrective pullback from the 1.3600 neighborhood, or a two-month peak, stalled ahead of a confluence comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the January-March downfall. The subsequent move up beyond the 50% retracement level reaffirms the constructive outlook. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 59 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in positive territory, hinting that buyers still retain control even as the advance begins to slow.
Initial resistance is seen at a structural standpoint near the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 1.3608, which guards a deeper extension toward the recent swing highs. On the downside, the 50.0% retracement at 1.3523 is the first line of support, followed by the 38.2% level at 1.3437 and then the 23.6% retracement at 1.3332, with the 1.3161 area acting as a more distant structural floor if the broader pullback extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
GBP/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.08%
-0.10%
-0.11%
-0.05%
-0.33%
-0.19%
-0.05%
EUR
0.08%
-0.01%
-0.04%
0.03%
-0.22%
-0.09%
0.03%
GBP
0.10%
0.00%
-0.02%
0.04%
-0.24%
-0.12%
0.04%
JPY
0.11%
0.04%
0.02%
0.08%
-0.22%
-0.10%
0.10%
CAD
0.05%
-0.03%
-0.04%
-0.08%
-0.28%
-0.16%
0.00%
AUD
0.33%
0.22%
0.24%
0.22%
0.28%
0.14%
0.28%
NZD
0.19%
0.09%
0.12%
0.10%
0.16%
-0.14%
0.15%
CHF
0.05%
-0.03%
-0.04%
-0.10%
-0.00%
-0.28%
-0.15%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USDJPY exchange rate will be in the spotlight this week as the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) publish their interest rate decisions. It was trading slightly below the important resistance level at 160 as traders wait for these events and as the Iran crisis continued.
BoJ interest rate decision
The USD to Japanese yen will be in focus this week as the BoJ releases the latest interest rate decision. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75% as it observes the impact of the ongoing war to the economy.
A report released on Friday showed that Japan’s inflation continued rising in March as the war boosted energy prices. This rise will continue as there are signs that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will continue for a while.
The US has been open to talks with Iran, which the latter has resisted. Last week, the Iranians remained non-commital on talks even as President Donald Trump insisted that they would happen. At some point, he noted that JD Vance was on his way to Pakistan only for his motorcade to show up in the White House.
The same situation happened during the weekend. To save face, Trump shared that the team would not travel to Pakistan, citing the fact that Iranian leaders were divided. Iran has rejected these claims.
In addition to the headline decision, the BoJ will likely provide a guidance on what to expect in the upcoming meetings. For one, the IMF has called for the bank to hike interest rates, which analysts believe is possible. Officials will also highlight measures to boost the Japanese yen, which has crashed in the past few years.
Federal Reserve decision and key macro data
The next key catalyst for the USDJPY will be the upcoming Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday. Like the BoJ, analysts expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75% in this meeting.
The bank, which has been under pressure to cut rates from Trump, sees no need to do so as inflation remains high. The most recent data showed that the headline consumer inflation jumped to 3.3% and the OECD expects it will rise to 4.3% this year.
Worse, there are signs that the US is moving towards a stagflation, a period characterized by high inflation and slow economic growth. For example, an economic report expected this week will show that the economy expanded by less than two percent in the first quarter.
The weekly chart shows that the USD to JPY pair has moved to the psychological level at 160. It has moved comfortably above the 50-week and 100-week moving averages, a sign that bulls are in control.
The pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern, which is made up of a horizontal support and a diagonal line. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it rebounds, potentially to the key resistance level at 163.
At 9 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil was priced at $106.01 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (we’ll explain different benchmarks later in this article). That’s a gain of $2.34 compared with yesterday morning and around $39 higher than the price one year ago.
Oil price per barrel
% Change
Price of oil yesterday
$103.67
+2.25%
Price of oil 1 month ago
$111.49
-4.91%
Price of oil 1 year ago
$66.64
+59.07%
Price of oil yesterday
Oil price per barrel
$103.67
% Change
+2.25%
Price of oil 1 month ago
Oil price per barrel
$111.49
% Change
-4.91%
Price of oil 1 year ago
Oil price per barrel
$66.64
% Change
+59.07%
Will oil prices go up?
It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.
How oil prices translate to gas pump prices
Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.
Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”
The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.
It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.
How oil and natural gas prices are linked
Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:
Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America
Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:
The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.
All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.
Energy coverage from Fortune
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Frequently asked questions
How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change during the day?
The price of oil updates constantly when the “futures” markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.
How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy we’ll have—and the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.
How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?
When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but it’s also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as it’s more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.
