2026.03.31 2026.03.31
Sliding Yen Nears Intervention Zone. Forecast as of 31.03.2026

Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/

Japan is ready to combat speculators in the foreign exchange and oil markets. Tokyo’s persistent verbal interventions are curbing bullish sentiment in the USD/JPY pair. Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan.

Major Takeaways

• Japan’s verbal interventions remain ongoing.
• USD/JPY quotes are declining in line with falling US Treasury yields.
• Capital repatriation flows are likely to support the yen.
• Long positions on the USD/JPY can be opened on pullbacks with targets of 159 and 158.5.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yen

Japanese officials are keeping speculators under pressure. Having built up net short positions on the yen to two-month highs, hedge funds are reluctant to buy the USD/JPY pair above the psychologically important 160 level amid the government’s ongoing verbal interventions and the BoJ’s focus on the national currency’s exchange rate.

USD/JPY Rate and Speculative Positions on Japanese Yen

Source: Bloomberg.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama claims that the time has come for decisive action. Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura has promised to act on all fronts, including both the foreign exchange and oil markets. According to him, immediate decisive action may be required.

Kazuo Ueda has likewise expressed concern about the yen’s weakness. The BoJ governor believes that exchange rate fluctuations are affecting prices, as companies increasingly pass higher costs on to consumers. The BoJ must ensure that rising inflation expectations do not lead to an uncontrollable acceleration in core inflation.

However, consumer prices in Japan continue to slow, with Tokyo CPI—a leading indicator for nationwide inflation—sliding to 1.7%, its lowest level since April 2024.

Tokyo CPI

Source: Bloomberg.

Nevertheless, officials are concerned about the situation in the Middle East. About 90% of Japan’s energy imports come from that region. At the same time, rising oil prices and a weak yen heighten the risk of stagflation—an economic slowdown accompanied by galloping inflation. Such a mix creates serious challenges for the BoJ. The central bank must choose the lesser of two evils, while its passive stance may trigger renewed buying pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

Government rhetoric is not the only factor tempering USD/JPY bulls. Investors are increasingly reassessing the outlook for the US economy. In their view, the longer the conflict in Iran persists, and the higher Brent crude prices climb, the greater the risk of a recession. Against this backdrop, Treasury yields are declining, while USD/JPY bears are receiving support.

Moreover, according to Eurizon Capital, the decline in global stock indices will prompt Japanese investors to repatriate capital to Japan. It will give the yen a boost. The Japanese currency cannot yet serve as a safe haven due to its sensitivity to rising energy prices. However, the flow of capital could turn everything upside down.

Weekly USDJPY Trading Plan

Capital is not guaranteed to flow back to Japan, as investors have alternative destinations such as gold or Bitcoin. Against this backdrop, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East may still present opportunities to buy the USD/JPY pair on pullbacks to support levels of 159 and 158.5. Alternatively, long positions could be considered on a confirmed break above the 160 level.

This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

The GBPJPY pair failed to resume the bullish attempts, due to the stability of the barrier at 112.30, forcing it to activate the bearish corrective scenario by threatening the stability of the minor bullish channel’s support at 211.90.

The contradiction of the main indicators by providing negative momentum by stochastic that might push the price to break the current support, to confirm its readiness to target new corrective stations that might extend 211.35 and 210.60, while renewing the bullish scenario depends on breaching the previously mentioned barrier and holding above it.

The expected trading range for today is between 211.35 and 212.75

Trend forecast: Bearish

Platinum price reached $1958.00 level this morning, to face %100 Fibonacci extension level, to rebound quickly to the downside, holding below the minor bearish channel’s resistance at $1940.00, to confirm the continuation of the previously suggested bearish scenario.

The price needs a new negative momentum to ease the mission of forming bearish waves, to expect targeting $1835.00 level initially reaching the next target at $1745.00, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will open the way for recording several gains, to reach $2025 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between $1835.00 and $1940.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

BitcoinWorld

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Critical Breakdown Below 184 as Bears Target 100-Day SMA Support

The EUR/JPY currency pair has breached a significant technical level, sliding below the 184.00 handle in European trading on Thursday, March 20, 2025. Consequently, market analysts now scrutinize the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) as the next potential target for the prevailing bearish momentum. This move reflects a complex interplay of monetary policy divergence and shifting global risk sentiment.

EUR/JPY Forecast: Technical Breakdown Analysis

The recent price action for the Euro against the Japanese Yen shows a clear bearish shift. After failing to sustain gains above the 185.50 resistance zone, the pair experienced a sharp sell-off. This decline pushed it below the psychologically important 184.00 level. Technical indicators now align to suggest further downside potential. For instance, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped below 50, signaling increasing selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has crossed into negative territory. These signals collectively point toward sustained bearish control in the near term.

Market participants closely monitor several key technical levels. The immediate support now rests at the 100-day Simple Moving Average, currently hovering around the 182.80 region. A decisive break below this moving average could trigger accelerated selling. This might then open the path toward the 181.50 support zone, which acted as a strong floor in late February. Conversely, any recovery attempt will likely face stiff resistance near the former support-turned-resistance at 184.00, followed by the 185.00 level.

Key Technical Levels for EUR/JPY

Fundamental Drivers Behind the Euro Yen Slide

The EUR/JPY price forecast cannot be separated from its fundamental underpinnings. Primarily, the pair acts as a barometer for global risk sentiment and interest rate differentials. Recently, several factors have converged to pressure the cross. Firstly, the European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained a cautious stance. Despite easing inflationary pressures, ECB officials emphasize a data-dependent approach. This contrasts with market expectations for more aggressive rate cuts. Consequently, the Euro has struggled to find sustained bullish catalysts.

Conversely, the Japanese Yen has garnered support from shifting expectations. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has signaled a gradual move away from its ultra-accommodative policy framework. Markets now price in the potential for further policy normalization in 2025. This narrowing yield differential reduces the appeal of the carry trade, where investors borrow in low-yielding JPY to invest in higher-yielding assets. As this trade unwinds, it naturally supports the Yen against currencies like the Euro. Furthermore, a recent bout of risk aversion in global equity markets has boosted demand for the traditional safe-haven JPY.

Expert Analysis on Monetary Policy Divergence

Financial strategists point to policy divergence as a core theme. “The path for EUR/JPY is increasingly dictated by the pacing of ECB cuts versus BoJ hikes,” notes a senior currency analyst at a major European bank. “Current price action suggests the market is betting the BoJ will move faster to tighten than the ECB will to ease, compressing the yield spread.” This view is supported by recent options market data, which shows rising demand for protection against further Yen strength. Historical data also indicates that breaks below the 100-day SMA often precede extended trends, especially when accompanied by fundamental shifts.

Market Context and Historical Precedents

Understanding the current EUR/JPY forecast requires historical context. The pair enjoyed a strong bullish run throughout much of 2023 and early 2024, driven by a wide policy gap. However, trends often reverse when expectations shift. The last time the pair tested its 100-day SMA from above was in November 2024. On that occasion, it rebounded strongly. The critical question for traders is whether this level will hold again or signify a deeper correction.

The broader macroeconomic landscape provides additional clues. Global growth concerns, particularly stemming from China, often benefit the JPY as a safe haven. Simultaneously, geopolitical tensions in Europe can weigh on the Euro. Recent data shows:

• Eurozone PMIs: Manufacturing remains in contraction, though services show modest growth.
• Japanese Inflation: Core CPI remains above the BoJ’s 2% target, supporting hawkish policy arguments.
• Yield Spreads: The Germany-Japan 10-year yield spread has narrowed by 25 basis points this quarter.

This combination creates a challenging environment for the Euro to gain traction against the Yen. Market sentiment, as measured by the CFTC Commitment of Traders report, shows a reduction in net-long Euro positions. This suggests institutional investors are scaling back bullish bets.

Conclusion

The EUR/JPY price forecast points to a cautious near-term outlook as the pair trades below 184. The immediate focus rests on the 100-day Simple Moving Average around 182.80. A sustained break below this technical indicator could validate the bearish momentum and target lower supports near 181.50. The primary drivers remain the evolving monetary policy paths of the ECB and BoJ, alongside fluctuations in global risk appetite. Traders should monitor upcoming central bank communications and key economic data releases from both regions for confirmation of the next directional move. The current technical breakdown underscores the importance of dynamic support levels in forex market analysis.

FAQs

Q1: What does it mean that EUR/JPY is below the 100-day SMA?
The 100-day Simple Moving Average is a key medium-term trend indicator. Trading below it suggests the prevailing medium-term trend has turned bearish, and it now acts as a dynamic resistance level that the price must reclaim to signal a potential recovery.

Q2: Why is the 184.00 level significant for EUR/JPY?
The 184.00 level is a major psychological round number and previously acted as a support zone. After breaking below it, this level often flips to become a strong resistance area, where selling pressure can re-emerge during any price rebounds.

Q3: What fundamental factors are driving the Japanese Yen’s strength?
The Yen is strengthening due to expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue to normalize its ultra-loose monetary policy, potentially raising interest rates. Additionally, periods of global market uncertainty increase demand for the JPY as a traditional safe-haven currency.

Q4: How does risk sentiment affect the EUR/JPY pair?
EUR/JPY is considered a “risk-sensitive” cross. When investor sentiment is positive (risk-on), capital tends to flow out of the safe-haven JPY into higher-yielding assets, often boosting EUR/JPY. In risk-off environments, the reverse occurs, pressuring the pair lower.

Q5: What key data should traders watch next for EUR/JPY direction?
Traders should monitor Eurozone inflation (CPI) and growth data, comments from ECB officials, Japanese wage growth and inflation figures, and BoJ policy meeting minutes. Any surprise in these data points can cause significant volatility in the currency pair.

This post EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Critical Breakdown Below 184 as Bears Target 100-Day SMA Support first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Falls as Middle East Tensions Escalate

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate slipped to its lowest level in a fortnight on Monday, as escalating geopolitical tensions dampened market sentiment and drove demand for safer assets.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3229, down roughly 0.2% on the day.

The US Dollar firmed at the beginning of the week, supported by a cautious market mood as investors gravitated towards safer assets amid rising tensions in the Middle East.

Risk aversion strengthened after Yemen’s Houthi forces, closely aligned with Iran, entered the conflict over the weekend, fuelling fears of a wider regional escalation and increased global economic disruption.

Comments from President Donald Trump sparked some fluctuation but ultimately added to the sense of geopolitical uncertainty.

Although Trump indicated that Iran was allowing 20 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a present and referenced serious discussions between the two sides, he also renewed threats to target Iranian energy infrastructure if the strait is not reopened swiftly.

Ongoing concerns that the conflict could intensify and inflict significant damage on the global economy unsettled markets, boosting demand for the US Dollar.

The Pound struggled to gain traction against the backdrop of a risk-off market environment.

With investors favouring safer assets, Sterling remained on the back foot as sentiment deteriorated.

A lack of notable UK economic data left the currency without clear direction, with no major domestic releases to help guide movement.

Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Data in Focus

The UK’s final GDP reading for the fourth quarter of 2025 could shape movement in the Pound. If the data confirms that the economy expanded by only 0.1%, Sterling may face some downside pressure, while any revision could trigger more pronounced volatility.

For the US Dollar, February’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey may act as a potential headwind if it shows a decline in the number of available roles.

A forecast drop in US consumer confidence for March could also weigh on the US Dollar, as rising prices linked to the conflict in Iran dampen household sentiment.

Developments in the Middle East will remain a key driver. A cautious market mood and fears of further escalation could bolster the US Dollar and potentially push the pairing lower.

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