The GBPJPY pair approached the previously waited main target by reaching 207.30 level which forces it to form some bullish corrective waves, affected by stochastic rally above 50 level, which allows it to recover some losses to settle near 208.15.
Note that the negative stability below 209.15 level represents main factor to confirm the previously suggested negativity, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra negative momentum to reinforce the chances of reaching 207.05, while surpassing the barrier and holding above it will ease the mission of achieving several gains by its rally towards 209.85 reaching 207.05.
The expected trading range for today is between 207.05 and 208.75
EUR/JPY pares its recent losses from the previous session, trading around 182.60 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart points to a potential bullish reversal, with the currency cross holding slightly above the upper boundary of the descending channel pattern. However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.84 (neutral) signals modest improvement in momentum without a clear trend resumption.
The EUR/JPY cross holds just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 182.57, while the 50-day EMA at 182.78 caps near-term recoveries. The short-term average has stabilized, and the medium-term slope is flattening, pointing to consolidation. Failure to reclaim the medium-term average would leave the pair vulnerable to range extension, while a sustained hold above the short-term average could keep dips contained.
A daily close above the 50-day EMA would cause the emergence of the bullish bias and support the EUR/JPY cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, which was recorded on January 23.
A break below the nine-day EMA could drag the EUR/JPY cross back into the descending channel and target the lower boundary of the channel around 177.30. Further declines below the channel would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to navigate the region around the four-month low of 175.70.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.06%
-0.03%
0.17%
0.00%
-0.14%
-0.17%
0.12%
EUR
-0.06%
-0.09%
0.13%
-0.05%
-0.20%
-0.23%
0.06%
GBP
0.03%
0.09%
0.21%
0.03%
-0.11%
-0.14%
0.15%
JPY
-0.17%
-0.13%
-0.21%
-0.16%
-0.30%
-0.34%
-0.04%
CAD
-0.00%
0.05%
-0.03%
0.16%
-0.14%
-0.17%
0.12%
AUD
0.14%
0.20%
0.11%
0.30%
0.14%
-0.03%
0.26%
NZD
0.17%
0.23%
0.14%
0.34%
0.17%
0.03%
0.29%
CHF
-0.12%
-0.06%
-0.15%
0.04%
-0.12%
-0.26%
-0.29%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Register now to be able to add articles to your reading list.
” aria-hidden=”true”>
Quick overview
WTI Crude Oil prices have dropped to $65.50, retreating from six-month highs as optimism around US-Iran nuclear talks fades.
The International Energy Agency has cut its global demand growth forecast for 2026, contributing to bearish sentiment in the market.
Record production from non-OPEC+ suppliers is expected to create a structural surplus, capping any long-term price rallies above $67.
Analysts predict a volatile 2026, with geopolitical shocks causing short-term spikes against a backdrop of fundamental oversupply.
The Lowdown: WTI Crude Oil is backpedalling from six-month highs on February 23, 2026, with prices dropping to $65.50 as optimism around US-Iran nuclear talks starts to fade the ‘war premium’. With the IEA cutting its demand forecast and a clear rejection at $67.03, we’re taking a closer look at whether oil is headed for a deeper correction towards $63 or if OPEC+ discipline can rescue the rally.
Market Update: Geopolitical Premium Takes a Hit as Oil Falls 1.5%
The ‘war premium’ that sent WTI Crude soaring to $67 just a few weeks ago is being put to the test. On February 23, 2026, USOIL took a 1.5% intraday hit, trading between $65.50 and $66.00 per barrel.
WTI Spot/Futures: Right now its trading at $65.55 – a pretty sharp reversal from that $67.03 mid-February peak.
Brent Crude: The global benchmark isn’t doing much better, down 1.3% and trading near $70.40.
What’s Behind the Sudden Shift in Oil Prices? The “De-escalation” Factor
The main driver behind today’s bearish price action is a sudden shift in the geopolitical narrative in the Middle East.
1.US-Iran Nuclear Deal Breakthrough?
Market players are pricing in progress on a potential US-Iran nuclear deal, with reports of an “understanding on guiding principles” between Tehran and Washington having taken some of the threat of military strikes or blockades off the table . As the fear of a conflict diminishes, a lot of speculative bets on rising oil prices are getting unwound.
The IEA’s Demand Reality Check
Adding to the bearish mood , the International Energy Agency has cut its global demand growth forecast for 2026 all the way down to 850,000 b/d. This puts it at odds with OPEC’s more upbeat +1.4 mb/d projection . The IEA’s warning of a surplus coming due to growth from non-OPEC+ suppliers is really weighing on long-term sentiment.
Non-OPEC+ Supply Growth Out of Control
While OPEC+ is sticking to its production quotas through March, record level production from the US, Brazil, and Guyana is expected to add +2.4 mb/d to global supply in 2026 . This structural surplus narrative is capping any long-term rally above $67.
WTI Technical Analysis: Rejection at $67.03 Suggests a Move to $64.45
The 4 hour chart for WTI Crude shows pretty clearly that price has rejected the $67.03 resistance level which is right at a critical horizontal supply zone .
WTI Crude Oil Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
Fibonacci Levels: Price has already slipped below the 0.236 fib level ($65.81) so its now resistance.
Downside Targets: Momentum suggests a further test of the 0.382 fib at $65.05 – then potentially a deeper path towards $64.45 (0.5 fib) and $63.84 (0.618 fib)
Dynamic Support: As long as oil manages to stay above the 50 period moving average ($63.78) and the 200 period MA ($62.47) the broader structure remains intact.
2026 Oil Forecast: Volatility Amid Surplus Risks
Analysts are bracing for a year of “two halves,” where geopolitical shocks provide short-term spikes against a backdrop of fundamental oversupply.
Scenario
Target Price (WTI)
Primary Driver
Bullish Case
$70.00+
Failed Iran talks & persistent inventory draws
Base Case
$67.00
OPEC+ discipline balancing high U.S. output
Bearish Case
$50.00s
IEA surplus forecast & successful nuclear deal
Bottom Line: The long term trend remains solid within an ascending channel – but today’s dip is a necessary cooling phase as the geopolitical fever breaks. Bulls need to keep an eye on the $64.00 support zone to stop a total breakdown.
Trade Idea: Sell below $65.00 aiming for $64.45 – with a protective stop loss above $66.50.
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate found a modest footing at the start of the week, with USD being dented by US trade policy uncertainty.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD hovered close to $1.3480, unchanged from the session’s opening levels.
The US Dollar was muted at the start of this week as investors grappled with fresh uncertainty linked to US tariff strategy.
This follows the US Supreme Court ruling on Friday overturning Donald Trump’s tariff framework introduced under emergency economic powers legislation. In response, the White House swiftly announced a new blanket tariff of 10%, which was then increased to 15% over the weekend.
The rapid sequence of policy changes has left investors seeking clarity, particularly regarding whether previously negotiated trade arrangements remain valid and whether US importers could reclaim costs tied to earlier duties.
Despite this uncertainty weighing on sentiment, downside pressure on the ‘Greenback’ remained somewhat limited as geopolitical tensions, including speculation over possible US military action involving Iran, encouraged some cautious positioning.
Sterling edged higher through Monday’s trading session, building on momentum generated by a run of upbeat UK data released late last week.
Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
Stronger retail sales figures, alongside resilient PMI readings, helped reinforce confidence in the UK’s economic outlook. These releases were complemented by data showing the government recorded a sizeable budget surplus in January, welcome news for Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the upcoming Spring Statement.
However, gains in the Pound were restrained by domestic political uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s Greater Manchester by-election.
A weaker-than-expected performance for the Labour Party could renew scrutiny surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership, introducing an additional layer of risk for GBP investors.
GBP/USD Forecast: Inflation Outlook and BoE Testimony in Focus
Movement in the Pound US Dollar exchange rate may hinge on comments from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene, who are due to appear before the Treasury Committee on Tuesday.
Any indication that policymakers are becoming more comfortable accelerating interest rate cuts as inflation slows could weigh on Sterling sentiment.
Meanwhile, with the US economic calendar relatively quiet, the US Dollar may remain primarily driven by developments surrounding trade policy uncertainty during the early part of the week.
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
No change on CHFJPY’s price track until this moment, due to its stability above the support of the bullish channel’s support near 198.65, besides the attempts of the main indicators to provide bullish momentum, fluctuating near199.90 level.
We expect the continuation of gathering bullish momentum by forming bullish waves, attempting to reach 200.50, to extend the trading towards facing %61.8 Fibonacci corrective level at 201,25, which represents confirmation key for the main trend on the medium-term trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.5630 and 0.5720
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) held firm near 1.18 after volatile trading triggered by a US Supreme Court ruling that struck down President Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs.
While the dollar initially drew support from geopolitical tensions and firmer oil prices, the legal setback to tariff policy has complicated the outlook for US trade strategy and added to broader structural concerns weighing on the greenback.
EUR/USD Forecast: US tariffs struck down
Danske Bank forecasts that the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will strengthen to 1.25 on a 12-month view.
The dollar gained net support from increased speculation that the US would launch a military strike against Iran as oil prices strengthened.
There was, however, choppy trading on Friday as the US Supreme Court ruled against President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs with EUR/USD around 1.18 from lows just below 1.1750.
Fed policy will remain a key overall element, especially with changes to the Board.
Save on Your EUR/USD Transfer
Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.
Danske Bank commented; “Warsh’s Fed chair nomination has calmed independence fears, immigration policy rhetoric has eased, and tariff threats have diminished. At the same time, monetary policy divergence has emerged as a key theme.”
According to Commerzbank; “the market could question the more than two Fed rate cuts that are currently discounted for this year with yields testing the upside.”
There is still speculation that the dollar will face structural barriers.
Danske Bank discussed potential risks to the outlook; “If the capital rotation out of US assets continues and a sharp US recession hit, EUR/USD could break substantially higher than our forecast suggests. In this environment, commodity currencies would also face a larger hit.”
It added; Conversely, persistent resilient US data and/or renewed euro area weakness that could prompt the ECB to cut again this year could keep the USD stronger-for-longer.
Scotiabank sees dollar headwinds; “We continue to expect broad-based weakness in the USD against all of the major developed economy currencies. The weak USD forecast extends through 2026 and into the end of our forecast horizon at the end of 2027, reflecting an outlook for relative central bank policy that includes near-term Fed easing and steady policy settings for the Fed’s peers.”
RBC Capital Markets takes a similar view “We continue to expect further US dollar weakness, mainly as US stocks and US rates are showing considerable underperformance vs European and Global benchmarks. This underperformance is materially surprising given that US growth continues to be quite strong and some of the best in the world.”
RBC added; “we note the cost of hedging USD assets back to EUR is in the bottom 25% percentile since 2022.”
During the week, there was some chatter that ECB President Lagarde would leave her post before the end of her 8-year term.
MUFG commented; “while all of the speculation on who takes over could be market-moving, a divergence of inflation relative to the target will still be more important in shaping the direction of monetary policy rather than who becomes President.”
According to Standard Chartered; “The ECB appears to have concluded its rate-cut cycle. The EUR should benefit from improved investor confidence and resilient trade data to trade near 1.21.”
Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
Platinum price took advantage by the positive factors that are represented by providing bullish momentum by the main indicators, besides forming extra support level at $2020.00, forming new bullish waves to settle near $2190.00.
We expect reaching $2245.00 barrier soon, and surpassing it will confirm its move to a new positive station, to reinforce the chances of recording extra gains that might begin at $2315.00 and $2425.00, while the failure to breach will reinforce the dominance of the sideways bias in the near-period, and there is chance to activate the bearish corrective track.
The expected trading range for today is between $2110.00 and $2245.00
![EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, XAG/USD & More [Video]](https://editorial.fxsstatic.com/images/i/market-chaos-03_Medium.jpg "EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, XAG/USD & More [Video]")
