EUR/USD Forecast: Political and fiscal uncertainty likely to maintain USD pressured
The US Dollar (USD) collapsed this week, helping EUR/USD reach a fresh three-month high just above the 1.1700 mark, heading into the weekly close a handful of pips below that level but still firmly up.
Unexpected boost to US liquidity
The USD sell-off was triggered by the United States (US) Department of the Treasury, which announced on Wednesday that it will increase the government debt repurchase size by at least double. According to the press release, the current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation, and the change will become effective September 9.
The announcement, while aimed at taming long-term bond yields, was also a signal that the Treasury is sensitive to yield volatility. The Treasury made its move after the 30-year bond yield climbed to 5.327% on Tuesday, its highest level since June 2007, immediately falling afterward by roughly 9 basis points.
There are, however, a couple of things that are worth understanding. First, buybacks are just a rearrangement of the maturity schedule, as the Treasury will have to issue fresh bonds to replace those that it plans to buy back. Government debt and fiscal deficits will remain the same.
Second, the decision has an impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy decisions. Given that the US Treasury will have to issue more bills to finance the planned removal, this would likely ease financial conditions, which would increase the odds of a tighter monetary policy.
The future looks cloudy for the USD, with precious metals likely to outpace the Greenback in a risk-averse environment. Neither Treasury buybacks nor higher rates will address the root of the problem, which is the fiscal deficit.
In any case, that means further USD weakness in a risk-averse environment. The Middle East war is in a stalemate, and neither side is willing to budge. Oil prices have already picked up a bullish pace, and it won’t take much longer until energy prices become embedded inflation.
Financial war
Meanwhile, the Middle East war adds pressure on financial markets. Tensions between the US and Iran remain in place, with neither willing to give in to the other party´s demands. Fire exchange around the Strait of Hormuz remains paused, as well as talks aimed at ending the conflict.
Market participants are clearly seeing a long-standing conflict ahead, and generally speaking, they are getting used to the idea. However, Oil prices have been picking up lately, reviving inflation-related concerns and also hinting at central banks opting for tighter monetary policies.
US President Donald Trump, however, is unwilling to give up. Trump posted on Truth Social that the next move is choking Tehran’s economy by levying major penalties against any country that provides “any type of lifeline” to Iran, calling it an “Economic D-Day.”
His comments were reinforced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who noted on Thursday that President Trump’s plan to crush Iran’s economy will likely negate the need for major US military operations against the Islamic Republic.
Bessent also had some comments on the Treasury buyback. He declared that the Treasury could increase bond buybacks beyond $4 billion, partly to signal that current yields do not reflect underlying economic fundamentals.
ECB Lagarde worried about Europe growth
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde hit the wires on Wednesday and expressed concerns about Europe facing an erosion of the conditions that have historically driven the continent’s growth at the World Economic Forum’s International Business Council in Geneva, Switzerland. Growth rested on three pillars, according to Lagarde: expanding global trade, manufacturing supported by access to cheap energy, and “a stable, rules-based global order, underpinned by a US security umbrella.”
“Today, that global order is under pressure. Geopolitical tensions are bringing critical dependencies and choke points into sharper focus, while Europe faces growing security threats on its doorstep,” Lagarde added. Her speech aimed to warn about Europe’s ability to compete in the age of AI, but her comments about the US did not pass unnoticed. War, physical or financial, poses a major risk and no one can ignore it.
Macroeconomic clues
The macroeconomic calendar had little to offer in the last few days. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the Minutes of the July meeting, which brought nothing of substance. Officials remain concerned about inflation, and support rate hikes would be required if price pressures persist. A note of color was added by Chair Kevin Warsh, as he proposed reducing annual meetings from the current eight to six, to allow collecting more data in between meetings. This year’s schedule, however, remains the same.
Other than that, the focus was on the S&P Global and local banks’ Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) released on Friday. The August flash estimates showed that Eurozone business activity expanded more than anticipated, as the Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.8 from 51.9 in July, against expectations of 51.8. Services output remained unchanged at 51.7, beating the expected slowdown to 51.5. Finally, the Composite PMI printed at 52.1, better than the expected 51.7 and the previous 52.
US PMIs also showed encouraging results, despite the Manufacturing PMI ticking lower to 53.2 from 53.9 in July. The Services index jumped to 56.8 from 54.6, pushing the Composite PMI to 56 from 54.5 in July, surpassing the expected 54. The figures help the USD recover some modest ground, though it is still sharply down for the week.
In the upcoming days, the macroeconomic calendar will include the German Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The US will also publish the second estimate of its Q2 GDP.
Additionally, investors will keep an eye on this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Fed Bank of Kansas. This year’s theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Policymakers from around the globe will discuss the main topic and may provide hints on the future of monetary policy.
Finally, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the annual Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Benchmark Revisions on Friday, a revision of labor statistics for the twelve months to March.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook:
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is bullish. The pair extends its advance well above the short- and medium-term moving averages, with the shorter one clearly bullish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1542, the 100-day SMA at 1.1573 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1631 all sit below spot, reinforcing a supportive backdrop as price pushes further into higher ground. The outlook stays constructive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) consolidating at 71 and the 14-period Momentum indicator also holding above its midline, hinting that buyers still dominate in the near term even as conditions look stretched.
On the weekly chart, EUR/USD holds a constructive bullish bias and trades above bullish moving averages. The 20-week SMA stands at 1.1576, while the 100-week SMA is at 1.1326 and the 200-week SMA is at 1.1059, reinforcing a broader underlying support structure. Weekly momentum is building up, as technical indicators head firmly north after crossing their midlines into positive ground.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 200-day SMA around 1.1631, followed by the 100-day SMA and the 20-week SMA, which converge in the 1.1570 price zone, forming a strong dynamic support area. Further slides could see EUR/USD dropping towards 1.1470 before relevant buying interest reappears. Recent highs around 1.1710 establish the first resistance area ahead of the 1.1800 mark. Additional gains should lead to a test of the April monthly peak at 1.1850.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
