EUR/JPY could find the initial barrier at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 187.00.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 60.85 signals solid bullish momentum.
The primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 184.79.
EUR/JPY remains stronger for the second successive day, trading around 186.00 during the Asian hours on Friday. The technical analysis of a daily chart indicates that the spot is moving higher within the ascending channel pattern, signaling a persistent bullish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross is retaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60.85 suggests constructive upside momentum rather than overbought conditions.
The primary resistance lies at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 187.00. A break above the channel would strengthen the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around its all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may find the primary support around the nine-day EMA of 184.79, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.64 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 184.70. A break below this confluence support zone would revive the bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.
US Treasury move doubles buybacks and flattens the long end
Commerzbank’s FX Research team highlights the impact of the latest US Treasury announcement on the rates complex, noting that, effective 9 September, “the US Treasury will double the size of liquidity support buyback operations to at least USD4bn.” They add that the decision immediately rippled through the long end of the curve, as “the 30Y yield fell 10bp following the announcement, and the curve flattened,” reinforcing the bull-flattening move that has underpinned recent Dollar weakness and Yen strength.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.13%
-0.09%
-0.05%
-0.18%
-0.40%
-0.43%
-0.10%
EUR
0.13%
0.03%
0.07%
-0.08%
-0.28%
-0.29%
0.03%
GBP
0.09%
-0.03%
0.04%
-0.11%
-0.31%
-0.33%
0.00%
JPY
0.05%
-0.07%
-0.04%
-0.14%
-0.36%
-0.40%
-0.05%
CAD
0.18%
0.08%
0.11%
0.14%
-0.22%
-0.24%
0.08%
AUD
0.40%
0.28%
0.31%
0.36%
0.22%
-0.04%
0.30%
NZD
0.43%
0.29%
0.33%
0.40%
0.24%
0.04%
0.35%
CHF
0.10%
-0.03%
-0.01%
0.05%
-0.08%
-0.30%
-0.35%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Copper price ended the bearish corrective trading by providing a new positive close above the main support at $6.2700, benefiting from the main indicators by forming some bullish waves, to settle near $6.5000, confirming the stability of the previously suggested bullish scenario.
The price might face some difficulties in the bullish attempts due to stochastic fluctuation below level 50, we expect reaching the barrier near $6.5800, and breaching it will ease the mission of recording extra gains that might begin at $6.6700.
The expected trading range for today is between $6.4200 and $6.5800
The US Dollar (USD) collapsed this week, helping EUR/USD reach a freshthree-month high just above the 1.1700 mark, heading into the weekly close a handful of pips below that level but still firmly up.
Unexpected boost to US liquidity
The USD sell-off was triggered by the United States (US) Department of the Treasury, which announced on Wednesday that it will increase the government debt repurchase size by at least double. According to the press release, the current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation, and the change will become effective September 9.
The announcement, while aimed at taming long-term bond yields, was also a signal that the Treasury is sensitive to yield volatility. The Treasury made its move after the 30-year bond yield climbed to 5.327% on Tuesday, its highest level since June 2007, immediately falling afterward by roughly 9 basis points.
There are, however, a couple of things that are worth understanding. First, buybacks are just a rearrangement of the maturity schedule, as the Treasury will have to issue fresh bonds to replace those that it plans to buy back. Government debt and fiscal deficits will remain the same.
Second, the decision has an impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy decisions. Given that the US Treasury will have to issue more bills to finance the planned removal, this would likely ease financial conditions, which would increase the odds of a tighter monetary policy.
The future looks cloudy for the USD, with precious metals likely to outpace the Greenback in a risk-averse environment. Neither Treasury buybacks nor higher rates will address the root of the problem, which is the fiscal deficit.
In any case, that means further USD weakness in a risk-averse environment. The Middle East war is in a stalemate, and neither side is willing to budge. Oil prices have already picked up a bullish pace, and it won’t take much longer until energy prices become embedded inflation.
Financial war
Meanwhile, the Middle East war adds pressure on financial markets. Tensions between the US and Iran remain in place, with neither willing to give in to the other party´s demands. Fire exchange around the Strait of Hormuz remains paused, as well as talks aimed at ending the conflict.
Market participants are clearly seeing a long-standing conflict ahead, and generally speaking, they are getting used to the idea. However, Oil prices have been picking up lately, reviving inflation-related concerns and also hinting at central banks opting for tighter monetary policies.
US President Donald Trump, however, is unwilling to give up. Trump posted on Truth Social that the next move is choking Tehran’s economy by levying major penalties against any country that provides “any type of lifeline” to Iran, calling it an “Economic D-Day.”
His comments were reinforced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who noted on Thursday that President Trump’s plan to crush Iran’s economy will likely negate the need for major US military operations against the Islamic Republic.
Bessent also had some comments on the Treasury buyback. He declared that the Treasury could increase bond buybacks beyond $4 billion, partly to signal that current yields do not reflect underlying economic fundamentals.
ECB Lagarde worried about Europe growth
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde hit the wires on Wednesday and expressed concerns about Europe facing an erosion of the conditions that have historically driven the continent’s growth at the World Economic Forum’s International Business Council in Geneva, Switzerland. Growth rested on three pillars, according to Lagarde: expanding global trade, manufacturing supported by access to cheap energy, and “a stable, rules-based global order, underpinned by a US security umbrella.”
“Today, that global order is under pressure. Geopolitical tensions are bringing critical dependencies and choke points into sharper focus, while Europe faces growing security threats on its doorstep,” Lagarde added. Her speech aimed to warn about Europe’s ability to compete in the age of AI, but her comments about the US did not pass unnoticed. War, physical or financial, poses a major risk and no one can ignore it.
Macroeconomic clues
The macroeconomic calendar had little to offer in the last few days. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the Minutes of the July meeting, which brought nothing of substance. Officials remain concerned about inflation, and support rate hikes would be required if price pressures persist. A note of color was added by Chair Kevin Warsh, as he proposed reducing annual meetings from the current eight to six, to allow collecting more data in between meetings. This year’s schedule, however, remains the same.
Other than that, the focus was on the S&P Global and local banks’ Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) released on Friday. The August flash estimates showed that Eurozone business activity expanded more than anticipated, as the Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.8 from 51.9 in July, against expectations of 51.8. Services output remained unchanged at 51.7, beating the expected slowdown to 51.5. Finally, the Composite PMI printed at 52.1, better than the expected 51.7 and the previous 52.
US PMIs also showed encouraging results, despite the Manufacturing PMI ticking lower to 53.2 from 53.9 in July. The Services index jumped to 56.8 from 54.6, pushing the Composite PMI to 56 from 54.5 in July, surpassing the expected 54. The figures help the USD recover some modest ground, though it is still sharply down for the week.
In the upcoming days, the macroeconomic calendar will include the German Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The US will also publish the second estimate of its Q2 GDP.
Additionally, investors will keep an eye on this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Fed Bank of Kansas. This year’s theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Policymakers from around the globe will discuss the main topic and may provide hints on the future of monetary policy.
Finally, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the annual Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Benchmark Revisions on Friday, a revision of labor statistics for the twelve months to March.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook:
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is bullish. The pair extends its advance well above the short- and medium-term moving averages, with the shorter one clearly bullish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1542, the 100-day SMA at 1.1573 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1631 all sit below spot, reinforcing a supportive backdrop as price pushes further into higher ground. The outlook stays constructive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) consolidating at 71 and the 14-period Momentum indicator also holding above its midline, hinting that buyers still dominate in the near term even as conditions look stretched.
On the weekly chart, EUR/USD holds a constructive bullish bias and trades above bullish moving averages. The 20-week SMA stands at 1.1576, while the 100-week SMA is at 1.1326 and the 200-week SMA is at 1.1059, reinforcing a broader underlying support structure. Weekly momentum is building up, as technical indicators head firmly north after crossing their midlines into positive ground.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 200-day SMA around 1.1631, followed by the 100-day SMA and the 20-week SMA, which converge in the 1.1570 price zone, forming a strong dynamic support area. Further slides could see EUR/USD dropping towards 1.1470 before relevant buying interest reappears. Recent highs around 1.1710 establish the first resistance area ahead of the 1.1800 mark. Additional gains should lead to a test of the April monthly peak at 1.1850.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Risk sentiment FAQs
In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.
Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.
The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.
The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.
The Gold price’s break above its 200-day average strengthens the near-term outlook, with $4,700 now the first major test and $4,500 providing support.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) entered the weekend near $4,604 an ounce after climbing more than 5% over the week and reaching its highest level since mid-May.
The move above the 200-day moving average around $4,513 marked an important change in the technical picture and strengthened the case for a further recovery towards $4,700.
Gold benefited from a sharp Dollar decline after US Treasury plans to expand purchases of longer-dated government debt unsettled investors and pulled capital towards alternative stores of value.
The policy announcement also helped ease long-term yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing asset.
Goldman Sachs reported renewed speculative interest in COMEX gold and rate-sensitive exchange-traded funds, while unusually strong demand for call options amplified the advance.
Gold broke decisively above $4,500 as Dollar selling and renewed demand for macroeconomic hedges accelerated.
Near-Term Gold Price Prediction: $4,700 Becomes the First Test
The immediate gold price forecast has turned bullish following Friday’s close above both the 200-day average and the downward trend line from the January record.
Initial resistance is expected between $4,654 and $4,689, where measured technical projections converge with retracement levels from the earlier decline.
TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek said: “Next step is $4,700 if this momentum continues.”
A sustained break above $4,700 would strengthen the recovery and expose the $4,770–$4,780 region.
Technical analyst Bruce Powers identified the April swing high around $4,891 as the larger upside objective if buyers retain control.
That would leave gold within reach of the psychologically important $5,000 level, although momentum indicators suggest the market could consolidate or correct before mounting such an advance.
The first important support zone is now located between $4,500 and $4,516.
Holding this area would indicate that former resistance has become support and keep the bullish breakout intact.
A daily close below $4,500 would weaken the signal and risk a retreat towards $4,450, followed by the August 14 low near $4,310.
Losses below $4,300 would represent a more serious deterioration, potentially returning attention to the $4,000 region that supported gold during the June correction.
Indian Demand Strengthens the Floor, Not the Immediate Target
World Gold Council research also revealed improving demand conditions in India ahead of the festive season, although the figures should be viewed as evidence of support during price declines rather than justification for an uninterrupted rally.
The Council’s reference price of $4,391 was recorded on August 14, before gold subsequently broke above $4,600.
Research Head for India Kavita Chacko said: “Demand conditions are improving, raising expectations of a stronger festive season.”
Jewellery retailers and manufacturers replenished inventories as consumers returned after June’s sharp correction and July’s period of greater price stability.
Local discounts narrowed from around $100 an ounce in May and early June to approximately $45 by mid-August, pointing to a better balance between available supply and immediate demand.
Estimated Indian gold imports recovered to 40–45 tonnes in July from 20 tonnes during June, while their value more than doubled from $1.97bn to $4.16bn.
Investment demand provided a second source of support.
Indian gold ETFs attracted net inflows of $163mn during July, followed by an estimated $124mn during the first two weeks of August.
There are limits to how much support the physical market can provide at current prices.
Friday’s surge above $4,600 reportedly deterred some Indian retail buyers, while elevated prices could encourage households to exchange old jewellery and postpone discretionary purchases.
The medium-term institutional outlook nevertheless retains a bullish bias.
UBS expects gold to reach $5,000 an ounce during the first half of 2027, supported by eventual Federal Reserve easing, portfolio diversification and continuing official-sector demand.
UBS Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele said periods of weakness towards $4,000 “may ultimately prove to be opportunities to build strategic exposure.”
Our base-case forecast is for gold to remain supported above $4,500 and challenge $4,654–$4,700.
A confirmed break higher would target $4,770–$4,780 and potentially $4,891, while a close below $4,500 would warn that the breakout had failed.
US PCE inflation data on Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address on Friday will be the principal tests next week.
Softer inflation or reduced expectations of another US rate increase would favour further gains, whereas a renewed rise in yields and the Dollar could trigger a correction towards breakout support.
So, there could be a little bit of a jump here in the next week or so in one direction or the other, really. And the October contract does tend to be a little bit more bullish than September because you start to talk about cooler temperatures in the United States, something that we certainly don’t have at the moment. I’m giving this analysis with all of the windows open, very comfortable temperatures, no need to burn a lot of natural gas, although it is somewhat attached to electricity. It gets a little bit of a spike when it gets really hot; air conditioning demand can drive it higher, but right now there is no real huge push for that either. So, all things being equal, with the abundant supply, it keeps the price of natural gas somewhat suppressed.
Contract Rollover and Seasonal Demand Outlook
Ultimately, I do think that we’re getting close to the end of the quiet season. And this winter could be particularly interesting as the Europeans may find themselves having to import US natural gas, and that will have a major influence here.
But as things stand right now, we’re in a tight range between the 50-day EMA at $2.87 and the $2.65 level underneath. We’re basically in the middle of it. Looks like quiet, choppy trading to me.
The EUR/GBP currency pair is showing signs of a pause in its recent trend, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has moved to a neutral reading, suggesting that the pair is likely to consolidate in the near term.
This technical signal indicates that buying and selling momentum are currently balanced, following a period of directional movement. For traders, this often points to a range-bound market where the currency pair may trade sideways until a new catalyst emerges.
What Does a Neutral RSI Signal for EUR/GBP?
A neutral RSI, typically in the 40-60 range, signifies that the market is not overbought or oversold. This lack of directional momentum often precedes a period of consolidation. In the context of EUR/GBP, this means that neither the Euro nor the Pound has a clear technical advantage at the moment.
This technical setup often follows a significant move, allowing the market to ‘breathe’ before the next leg. For investors, a neutral RSI can be a signal to watch for breakouts from established support and resistance levels rather than expecting immediate trend continuation. The current setup suggests that the recent price action is digesting, with neither bulls nor bears in full control.
Key Levels and Market Context
As of this analysis, the pair is trading within a defined range, with traders closely monitoring key technical levels. A break above the recent swing high could signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below the current support zone might open the door for further downside. These levels are critical for determining the next significant move.
The consolidation comes amid a complex macroeconomic environment for both the Eurozone and the UK. Divergent monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) remain a core driver for the pair. Any shifts in economic data releases, such as inflation or GDP figures, could quickly alter the technical picture and inject new volatility into the market.
Implications for Traders and Investors
For traders, the current neutral RSI suggests a strategy of range trading or waiting for a clear breakout. The lack of momentum means that chasing price moves could be risky. Instead, focusing on well-defined support and resistance levels offers a more structured approach to navigating this phase.
For longer-term investors, this consolidation phase is a critical period to watch. It reflects the market’s uncertainty about the future path of interest rates in both economies. The resolution of this consolidation will likely set the tone for the pair’s direction in the coming weeks, making it an important development for anyone with exposure to the GBP or EUR.
Conclusion
The neutral RSI reading on the EUR/GBP daily chart indicates a period of consolidation is likely. This technical signal points to balanced momentum, suggesting that the pair may trade within a range until new economic data or policy signals provide a clearer direction. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels for potential breakout opportunities.
FAQs
Q1: What is the RSI indicator and how is it used in forex trading? The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It is used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in a market. A reading above 70 typically indicates overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 suggests oversold conditions. A neutral reading, usually between 40 and 60, indicates a lack of strong momentum and often precedes consolidation.
Q2: What does ‘consolidation’ mean for a currency pair like EUR/GBP? Consolidation refers to a period where an asset’s price trades within a relatively narrow range, pausing its broader trend. It occurs when supply and demand are roughly balanced. For a currency pair, this often results in a sideways movement on the chart, as buyers and sellers are equally matched until a new catalyst forces a breakout.
Q3: What factors could break the current EUR/GBP consolidation? Key factors that could break the consolidation include new economic data releases (like inflation or employment figures), shifts in monetary policy expectations from the European Central Bank or the Bank of England, geopolitical events, or significant changes in market risk sentiment. Any of these could provide the momentum needed for a decisive move beyond the current trading range.
At 8 a.m. Eastern Time today, oil was priced at $95.29 per barrel with Brent serving as the benchmark (we’ll explain different benchmarks later in this article). That’s a loss of 11 cents compared with yesterday morning and more than $27 higher than the price one year ago.
Oil price per barrel
% Change
Price of oil yesterday
$95.40
-0.11%
Price of oil 1 month ago
$89.12
+6.92%
Price of oil 1 year ago
$67.80
+40.54%
Price of oil yesterday
Oil price per barrel
$95.40
% Change
-0.11%
Price of oil 1 month ago
Oil price per barrel
$89.12
% Change
+6.92%
Price of oil 1 year ago
Oil price per barrel
$67.80
% Change
+40.54%
Will oil prices go up?
It’s impossible to forecast oil prices with detailed precision. Many different elements affect the market, but ultimately it boils down to supply and demand. When worries about economic recession, war, and other large-scale disruptions increase, oil’s path can shift fast.
How oil prices translate to gas pump prices
Gas prices at the pump don’t only track crude oil. They also include what it takes to refine and move that fuel, the taxes layered on top, and the extra markup your local station adds to stay in business.
Since crude oil generally makes up a majority of the per-gallon cost, changes in its price have an outsized impact. When oil surges, gas prices typically rise in tandem. But when oil retreats, gas prices often lag on the way down, a trend sometimes described as “rockets and feathers.”
The role of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve
In case of emergency, the U.S. has a store of crude oil known as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Its primary purpose is energy security in case of disaster (think sanctions, severe storm damage, even war). But it can also go a long way toward softening crippling price hikes during supply shocks.
It’s not a long-term answer and is more meant to provide temporary relief, assisting consumers and keeping critical parts of the economy running, like key industries, emergency services, public transportation, etc.
How oil and natural gas prices are linked
Both oil and natural gas are key sources of the energy we use every day. Because of this, a big change in oil prices can affect natural gas. For example, if oil prices increase, some industries may swap natural gas for some segments of their operations where possible, which increases demand for natural gas.
Historical performance of oil
To gauge oil’s performance, we often turn to two benchmarks:
Brent crude oil, the main global oil benchmark.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main benchmark of North America
Between these two, Brent better represents global oil performance because it prices much of the world’s traded crude. And, it’s often the best way to track historical oil performance. In fact, even the U.S. Energy Information Administration now uses Brent as its primary reference in its Annual Energy Outlook.
Looking at the Brent benchmark across several decades, oil has been anything but steady. It’s seen spikes due to factors such as wars and supply cuts, and it’s also seen crashes from global recessions and an oversupply (called a “glut”). For example:
The early 1970s brought the first big oil shock when the Middle East cut exports and imposed an embargo on the U.S. and others during the Yom Kippur War.
Prices dropped in the mid-1980s for reasons such as lower demand and more non-OPEC oil producers entering the industry.
Prices spiked again in 2008 with increased global demand, but it soon plummeted alongside the global financial crisis.
During the 2020 COVID lockdown, oil demand collapsed like never before—bringing prices below $20 per barrel.
All to say, oil’s historical performance has been anything but smooth. Again, it’s hugely affected by wars, recessions, OPEC whims, evolving energy initiatives and policies, and much more.
Energy coverage from Fortune
Looking to stay up-to-date regarding the latest energy developments? Check out our recent coverage:
Frequently asked questions
How is the current price of oil per barrel actually determined?
The current price of oil per barrel depends largely on supply and demand, including news about potential future supply and demand (geopolitics, decisions made by OPEC+, etc.). In the U.S., prices also move based on how friendly an administration is to drilling, as it can affect future supply. For example, 2025 saw the Trump administration move to reopen more than 1.5 million acres in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge for oil and gas leasing, reversing the Biden administration’s policy of limiting oil drilling in the Arctic.
How often does the price of oil change during the day?
The price of oil updates constantly when the “futures” markets are open. A futures market is effectively an auction where people agree to buy or sell oil in the future. As long as people and companies are trading contracts, the oil price is changing.
How does U.S. shale oil production affect the current price of oil?
In short, shale is rock that contains oil and natural gas. Think of shale as energy yet to be tapped. The more shale the U.S. accesses, the more energy we’ll have—and the more easily oil prices can keep from spiking as much thanks to a greater supply.
How does the current price of oil impact inflation and the broader economy?
When oil is expensive, it tends to make everyday items cost more. This can be related to energy (your heating, gas utilities, etc.), but it’s also due to the logistics involved with making those items accessible to you. Shipping, for example, can affect the price of things at the grocery store, as it’s more expensive to get those products from warehouses and farms onto the shelf.
Scotiabank’s conditional GBP/USD objective sits above consensus after Pound Sterling tests the 1.3650/60 resistance area
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has tested the mid-1.36s, putting Scotiabank’s conditional route towards 1.41 into focus.
ERUK market data show GBP/USD reached an intraday high near 1.3675 before slipping back towards 1.3645, so the sustained push required by Scotiabank has not yet occurred.
The bank’s scenario depends on a durable advance beyond the 1.3650/60 area, which has contained Sterling near its early-May peak.
It is a notably bullish technical case: ERUK’s Research Currency Forecast Sentiment Survey places the median fourth-quarter forecast at 1.3446 and the top of the surveyed range at 1.40.
Scotiabank analysts noted the recent move reflected broad US Dollar weakness more than a sudden improvement in UK fundamentals.
Nevertheless, the bank judged the technical structure to be firmly positive after GBP/USD twice defended the 1.3150 area during April and June.
The strategists said “a sustained push above 1.3650/60 implies potential for an extension towards the 1.41 zone over the balance of the year”.
That makes 1.41 a possible extension rather than a guaranteed year-end destination, with Sterling still needing to establish former resistance as support.
1.3848 as the intermediate test
Sucden Financial analysts highlighted 1.3650/60 as the breakout zone and said the next broader objective was 1.3848.
Sucden described the set-up as one “with the January high around 1.3848 representing a broader upside target”.
The level therefore offers an intermediate test of whether Scotiabank’s larger scenario is gaining traction.
The two institutions reach a similar bullish conclusion but on different horizons.
Sucden’s 1.3848 is the first substantial obstacle above the trigger, while Scotiabank’s conditional 1.41 objective extends through the balance of 2026.
Sucden placed initial support near 1.3600 and a deeper cushion around 1.3500, where the 20-day average and 30-day volume-weighted average price reinforce the technical floor.
A daily close below 1.3600 would weaken the breakout case and expose 1.3500, while a sustained hold above 1.3650/60 would strengthen the route towards 1.3848 and 1.41.
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