About Editorial team of BIPNs

Main team of content of bipns.com. Any type of content should be approved by us.
13 04, 2026

Platinum price tests the support level– Forecast today – 13-4-2026

By |2026-04-13T13:32:01+02:00April 13, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Platinum price affected by temporary negative pressure since Friday, which pushes it to form bearish corrective waves, to test the additional support at $1950.00, to bounce currently towards $2045.00, to settle above the moving average 55.

 

The stability of the support level and stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of the rally towards $2075.00 and providing a positive close above it will open the way for resuming the bullish trend, expecting to reach $2130.00 followed by the next barrier at $2205.00.

 

The expected trading range for today is between $1970.00 and $2130.00

 

Trend forecast: Bullish





Source link

13 04, 2026

USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Momentum Targets Critical 160.00 Breakthrough As Technical Setup Strengthens

By |2026-04-13T13:23:02+02:00April 13, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments















USD/JPY Forecast: Bullish Momentum Targets Critical 160.00 Breakthrough As Technical Setup Strengthens


































Skip to content

















Source link

13 04, 2026

Coffee prices on April 13: Domestic prices increase, world prices remain flat

By |2026-04-13T09:30:58+02:00April 13, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market this morning, April 13th, continued to increase after a week of deep price slippage.

According to surveys in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, coffee prices simultaneously increased slightly from 200 to 300 VND/kg, bringing the average price level of the whole region to the threshold of 86,000 VND/kg.

In Dak Nong province (old), the purchase price recorded an increase of 200 VND, pushing the price to the highest level in the region at 86,000 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai two localities increased the highest by 300 VND, bringing the price to the highest level of 86,000 VND/kg.

With the same increase of 300 VND, Lam Dong province listed it at 85,500 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

On the international market, futures exchanges remained unchanged after a slight price increase in the last session of the week. On the New York exchange, Arabica futures for May 2026 opened at 300.10 cents/lb. Further forwards offered prices at the threshold of 267 cents/lb – 295.9 cents/lb.

For the same term, the London exchange also witnessed the Robusta flow moving sideways, standing at 3,324 USD/ton. Further terms fluctuated around 3,100 USD/ton – 3,239 USD/ton.

Scarce supply of Robusta coffee is supporting prices. Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange fell to their lowest level in more than 1 year. However, increased Arabica inventories are putting pressure on prices as inventory tracked by ICE increased to its highest level in 6.25 months.

Market outlook

According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the US National Weather Service, neutral ENSO conditions are present and are likely to last until mid-year. Neutral ENSO states occur when there is no El Nino or La Nina, often bringing more stable and predictable weather. This shows the decline of extreme climate phenomena and can help make global crop forecasts more consistent.

For coffee growing areas, especially in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam, neutral ENSO conditions can contribute to stabilizing rainfall and temperature, supporting more uniform crop development and reducing the risk of weather disruptions. Weather factors will continue to be closely monitored as the Southern Hemisphere enters the traditional cold winter period in the near future.

In terms of long-term vision, in the context of Vietnamese coffee production expected to recover in the 2025-2026 crop year after years affected by weather, along with the upcoming Robusta Conilon harvest of Brazil and expected positive output from Indonesia and Uganda in the middle of the year, the market is showing signs of rebalancing supply and demand for Robusta coffee.





Source link

13 04, 2026

Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR 5-Week Best on Iran Uncertainty

By |2026-04-13T09:22:05+02:00April 13, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


– Written by

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) surged to five-week highs near 1.1725 after a temporary Iran ceasefire boosted risk appetite and weakened the dollar.

However, with oil prices rebounding and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz unresolved, markets remain cautious, limiting confidence in a sustained EUR/USD breakout.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Iran ceasefire, but no certainty

Nordea still expects that the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will strengthen to above 1.20 by the end of 2026 amid weaker US fundamentals.

Scotiabank is backing EUR/USD gains to 1.22 at the end of the year.

During the week, geo-political developments dominate with the mid-week announcement of a cease-fire between the US and Iran.

There was, however, still a high degree of uncertainty and the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed with oil prices regaining ground after a sharp initial decline as Brent traded well above $90 p/b.

Save on Your EUR/USD Transfer

Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer.
Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.


Compare the Best EUR/USD Rates »

The dollar lost ground as energy prices declined sharply and risk appetite strengthened. Overall, EUR/USD rallied strongly to 5-week highs around 1.1725.

The US inflation data was close to expectations with the headline figure jumping to 3.3% from 2.4% with the core rate at 2.6% from 2.5%.

Markets remained sceptical that the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates.

Scotiabank commented; “Our call remains that the Fed will cut rates by 50bps over the next 12 months in response to slowing growth momentum. Expectations that other central banks may tighten policy could retrench if a sustained decline in energy prices unfolds but the USD is still likely to soften somewhat as market risk premia re-adjust.”

It added; “Our fair value model for the DXY based purely on front-end spreads suggests the index is significantly (about one standard deviation) overvalued currently.”

Nordea commented; “We note that even amidst bouts of flight-to-safety, the performance of the USD has been far from stellar, and the conflict in the Middle East has not at least bolstered the confidence towards the dollar in the medium term. We thus continue to expect a clearly higher EUR/USD towards the end of our forecast horizon.”

ECB policy will also be a key element.

At this stage, Danske expects the ECB will leave rates on hold at 2.0% this year. It did, however, add; “Due to ongoing uncertainty about the Iran war, we do not see a hold at the April meeting as a done deal yet.”

According to Nordea there will be pressure for a tighter policy; “both anecdotal and survey-based data have started to point to price pressures beyond energy prices, adding to the pre-war price pressures that existed already in many raw materials and components.”

It added; “We now expect the ECB to hike rates four times by 25bp, starting in June. While the ceasefire news immediately tilted the risks to our new ECB baseline to the downside, the outlook remains fraught with uncertainty, while signs of broader price pressures have already started to emerge.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:




International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

Source link

13 04, 2026

Gold Forecast: XAU/USD downside is back in play amid risks to US-Iran ceasefire

By |2026-04-13T05:29:20+02:00April 13, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Gold is re-attempting $4,700 early Monday, looking to fill up a $60 bearish opening gap, as markets brace for a re-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Gold bounces, but not out of the woods yet

Despite the latest uptick, Gold eyes more pain as the US Dollar (USD) surges through the roof in Asia on Monday. A flight to safety remains a key theme, boosting the latter’s appeal as a safe-haven asset and the world’s reserve currency.

Markets remain increasingly concerned about the durability of the already frail ceasefire agreement between the United States (US) and Iran after the failed peace talks over the weekend in Pakistan.

The breakdown resulted in US President Donald Trump threatening blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, while reiterating his threats to attack the Iranian civilian energy infrastructure.

Additionally, Trump and his advisers are reportedly weighing limited military strikes in Iran in the face of the fallout, per the Wall Street Journal (WSJ).

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that the “Forces will start blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on Monday, 10 AM ET” (14:00 GMT).

In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) warned that any miscalculated move will trap the enemy in the deadly whirlpools” in the key waterway”. 

“Approaching military vessels to the Strait of Hormuz is considered a violation of the ceasefire and will be dealt with harshly and decisively,” the IRGC warned further.

Meanwhile, the USD also draws support from hawkish expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook, which

The potential for US naval action around the Strait raises the risk of further disruption to global Oil supply, which could bolster higher inflation expectations and revive bets for a Fed rate hike this year.

This narrative underpins the USD, while non-yielding assets such as Gold tend to suffer in a high-interest-rate environment.

In the day ahead, the Mideast headlines will continue to drive the broader market sentiment, impacting the Greenback and thus, Gold price.

A lack of top-tier US economic data also puts the market attention back on the US-Iran ceasefire and the likely resumption of the US military action in Iran.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

XAU/USD is holding a bearish bias as the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) near $4,674 has pierced through the 100-day SMA around $4,687 from above, with a Bear Cross confirmation awaited on a daily closing basis. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 47 stays below the midline, hinting at renewed downside.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 50-day SMA at roughly $4,899, where a daily close higher would open the door for a more decisive recovery phase. On the downside, immediate support is seen first at the 21-day SMA around $4,674, followed closely by the 100-day SMA near $4,687 reinforcing the same demand area, while a deeper pullback towards the 200-day SMA at about $4,186 would be expected to attract more strategic dip-buying interest if tested.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.



Source link

13 04, 2026

Weekly Forex Forecast 12/04

By |2026-04-13T05:21:33+02:00April 13, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

I wrote on 29th March that the best trades for the week would be:

  1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair. This gave a loss of 0.40%.

  2. Long of the 10Y US Treasury Yield Future. This gave a loss of 2.99%.

That week’s overall loss of 3.39% is 1.70% per asset.

A summary of last week’s most important data in the market:

  1. US CPI – the annualized rate came in at 3.3%, a tick below the widely expected 3.4%.

  2. US ISM Services PMI – this was just a tiny bit worse than expected.

  3. US Core PCE Price Index – as expected.

  4. US Final GDP – revised downwards again, from a quarterly rate of 0.7% to 0.5%.

  5. US FOMC Meeting Minutes – there were no real surprises, but the minutes tended to reinforce generally hawkish sentiment on rates.

  6. RBNZ Policy Meeting – no surprises.

  7. Canada Unemployment Rate – just a tick better than expected, at 6.7%.

Last week’s economic data releases were much less influential upon the markets than the US/Iran ceasefire was. The mere fact that the USA and Iran are talking, despite the enormous gaps in their continued understanding of the terms of the ceasefire, let alone between their respective red lines, has produced a more risk-on market environment, especially concerning energy prices. As the talks have concluded with a generally downbeat reading of a USA very firm on certain demands and an equally firm Iran refusing to grant them – wishing to maintain both nuclear enrichment and to control, formally, passage through the Strait of Hormuz – we can probably expect markets to open in a more risk-averse mood, especially in stock markets and in energies. VP Vance departing stated “Bad news… the Iranian have decided not to accept our terms.”

Prediction markets generally think that this war will end within the next few weeks with some kind of formal agreement between the USA and Iran. This suggests that the crowd might be overly optimistic, paving the way for a potential surprise to the downside if hostilities suddenly resume. It remains very difficult to see how the nuclear and Hormuz issues, let alone Lebanon, can be resolved in a way all parties would find saleable to their constituencies.

The Week Ahead: 13th – 17th April

The middle east war is likely to remain more influential that any economic data releases which are scheduled over the coming week, as we approach the deadline for the expiry of the current two-week ceasefire and await to see whether it will be extended or something else will be agreed.

The coming week’s most important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

  1. US PPI

  2. UK GDP

  3. Australia Unemployment Rate

Monthly Forecast April 2026

Currency Price Changes and Interest Rates

For the month of April, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value.

Currency Pair

Forecasted Direction

Interest Rate Differential

Performance to Date

USD/JPY

Long ↑

+3.00% (3.75% – 0.75%)

+0.34%

Weekly Forecast 13th April 2026

Last week saw three currency crosses with excessive volatility, so I made the following forecasts for the coming week:

  • AUD/JPY short

  • NZD/JPY short

  • NZD/CAD short

The Australian Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the US Dollar was the weakest.

Next week’s volatility is likely to decline a bit. However, the ongoing war in the Middle East (subject to the current ceasefire) retains the ability to roil the market if there are any surprises. This could generate volatility in the US Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the Canadian Dollar, not to mention stock markets.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Technical Analysis

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

Currency Pair

Key Support / Resistance Levels

AUD/USD

Support: 0.7026, 0.7002, 0.6982, 0.6963

Resistance: 0.7100, 0.7213, 0.7248, 0.7275

EUR/USD

Support: 1.1718, 1.1678, 1.1669, 1.1640

Resistance: 1.1750, 1.1792, 1.1810, 1.1840

GBP/USD

Support: 1.3453, 1.3408, 1.3371, 1.3314

Resistance: 1.3477, 1.3504, 1.3536, 1.3549

USD/JPY

Support: 158.63, 158.46, 157.99, 157.30

Resistance: 159.38, 159.73, 159.96, 161.55

AUD/JPY

Support: 112.37, 111.28, 111.02, 110.60

Resistance: 112.90, 113.18, 113.37, 114.00

EUR/JPY

Support: 186.54, 186.23, 185.88, 184.85

Resistance: 187.00, 188.00, 189.00, 190.00

USD/CAD

Support: 1.3797, 1.3772, 1.3754, 1.3731

Resistance: 1.3845, 1.3860, 1.3876, 1.3899

USD/CHF

Support: 0.7838, 0.7800, 0.7700, 0.7600

Resistance: 0.7897, 0.7928, 0.7958, 0.7980

Key Support and Resistance Levels

US Dollar Index

The US Dollar printed a large bearish candlestick, with no significant lower wick, and a close that was very near to the low of its range. These are bearish signs. However, we have mixed long-term trends, with the 3-month trend bullish and the 6-month trend bearish. Looking at the price chart below, we can see that the greenback is really within a long-term consolidation phase, so we cannot really expect much of a trend in the US Dollar here.

I think the greenback will be more driven by the progress in the current Middle East ceasefire – if war breaks out again, it will likely boost the Dollar, not so much as a haven but more as an effect of the inflationary shock of the rising energy prices. If the ceasefire becomes something more durable, conversely, it will probably be bearish for the US Dollar.

US Dollar Index Weekly Price Chart

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair was at the heart of the Forex market again last week, with the Aussie gaining by more than any other major currency, while the US Dollar was the biggest lower. There has been a very long-term bullish trend in the Aussie, which seemed to have decoupled from risk sentiment to some extent, but we see the Aussie getting bid hard as the world enjoys the current ceasefire in the Middle East war, mostly hoping that this will somehow lead to a more durable peace agreement between the USA and Iran, although it is hard to see how the gaps can be bridged in the negotiations.

Looking technically at the weekly price chart below, we see that we saw a strong rise last week that ran out of momentum as it approached the major resistance level, confluent with a round number, at $0.7200. This looks a bit overbought, and we might get a short trade opportunity here if we continue to see failure near or at $0.7200, especially if sentiment turns more downbeat on the prospects for the ceasefire after talks between the USA and Iran in Pakistan just ended with no agreement.

This pair will likely be at the heart of market volatility, which can be great for day traders, and follow sentiment on the Middle East and the second order effect of a commodity price shock, both up and down.

The Aussie is also notably overbought against the Japanese Yen.

I won’t be trading in this currency pair yet, but day traders might want to look for shorts in this currency pair if we see a bearish reversal price action set up at $0.7200.

AUD/USD Weekly Price Chart

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair lost a little ground last week, two weeks after finally making the long-anticipated bullish breakout beyond the big round number at ¥160. The problem is not Yen weakness, which can be taken for granted over the long-term it seems. The problem for progress higher by this currency pair is the renewed weakness in the US Dollar now that there is a ceasefire in the Middle East war, because if there is a longer-term agreement it would remove some inflationary pressure from the Fed through lower energy prices.

I am happy to be long of this currency pair, although I would be more comfortable in my long trade if the price was established comfortably above ¥160.

If we do not see the price up there soon, I fear that we might have a bit of a bearish head and shoulders chart pattern which might complete below ¥157.50.

More cautious traders might want to wait for a daily (New York) close above ¥160 before entering a new long trade.

USD/JPY Daily Price Chart

Brent Crude Oil Futures

Brent Crude Oil gapped lower quite dramatically early last week following President Trump’s announcement of a 2-week ceasefire in the war with Iran, which had been looking likely to escalate into all-out war on economic targets, including energy targets. This was pushing the price of crude oil higher, but we really saw the price drop as investors dare to hope to some kind of peaceful compromise to end the crisis, although it is very hard to imagine how this would be agreed.

It can be said that the price is just consolidating and not falling further.

With the talks between an Iranian delegation and US Vice-President Vance breaking down a few hours ago in Pakistan with both sides expressing disappointment, we might start to see the price of crude oil look more bullish as the new week opens, as analysts might begin to see increasing risk of the ceasefire collapsing soon, or at least an increasing chance that no agreement will be forthcoming before the current ceasefire expires on 21st April.

Although I find some kind of bullish price action is likely over the coming days, I will only want to be long of Crude Oil again if we get a new long-term high in the closing end of day price.

If you are going long, Brent will likely be the better vehicle than WTI, as it is more exposed to events in the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Daily Price Chart

Bottom Line

I see the best trades this week as:

  1. Long of the USD/JPY currency pair following a daily (New York) close above ¥160.

  2. Long of Brent Crude Futures in the unlikely event we get a daily close above $112.50.

Ready to trade our Forex weekly forecast? Check out our list of the top 10 Forex brokers.

Source link

12 04, 2026

EUR/GBP Forecast: Critical Support from Converging SMAs Faces Formidable 0.8750 Resistance

By |2026-04-12T13:17:12+02:00April 12, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

BitcoinWorld

EUR/GBP Forecast: Critical Support from Converging SMAs Faces Formidable 0.8750 Resistance

The EUR/GBP currency pair currently demonstrates a technically significant configuration, with converging simple moving averages providing underlying support while formidable resistance caps gains below the 0.8750 psychological level. This critical juncture emerges as European and British economic policies diverge, creating a complex trading environment for currency analysts and institutional investors. Market participants now closely monitor whether technical support will hold against fundamental headwinds, potentially determining the cross’s directional bias for the coming trading sessions.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: The SMA Convergence Phenomenon

Technical analysts observe a notable convergence of multiple simple moving averages on the EUR/GBP daily chart. Specifically, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs have compressed within a historically narrow range, typically indicating reduced volatility and potential energy accumulation for a significant directional move. This convergence pattern often precedes substantial breakouts in currency markets. Consequently, traders interpret this compression as a coiled spring effect, where the pair builds energy before selecting a definitive trend direction.

Historical data reveals similar SMA convergence patterns preceded the EUR/GBP’s 2023 rally from 0.8500 to 0.8900. Currently, the 50-day SMA provides immediate dynamic support around 0.8680, while the 200-day SMA offers stronger foundational support near 0.8650. These technical levels create a multi-layered support zone that has defended against three separate bearish attempts during the past month. Market technicians emphasize that sustained trading above these converged averages would signal underlying strength, potentially enabling a challenge of higher resistance levels.

The 0.8750 Resistance Barrier: A Psychological and Technical Hurdle

The 0.8750 level represents more than just a numerical price point for the EUR/GBP pair. This resistance zone combines psychological significance with technical validation from previous market behavior. During the past six months, the cross has tested this level on four separate occasions, each time encountering substantial selling pressure that reversed gains. This repeated rejection establishes 0.8750 as a formidable technical ceiling that requires significant fundamental catalysts to overcome.

Market microstructure analysis reveals increased limit sell orders clustered around 0.8740-0.8760, creating an order book imbalance that reinforces this resistance zone. Additionally, options market data shows elevated implied volatility for strikes at 0.8750, indicating traders’ expectations for price containment below this level. The resistance confluence includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the March 2024 decline, further strengthening its technical significance. Breaking above this barrier would require either substantial Euro strength or pronounced Pound weakness, supported by convincing volume expansion.

Fundamental Drivers: Diverging European and British Economic Policies

Beyond technical patterns, fundamental factors increasingly influence the EUR/GBP exchange rate trajectory. The European Central Bank maintains a cautiously dovish stance despite persistent inflation concerns, while the Bank of England confronts more pronounced stagflation risks. This policy divergence creates opposing forces on the currency pair. European economic indicators show modest improvement in manufacturing PMIs, yet consumer confidence remains subdued amid energy price volatility.

Conversely, British economic data reveals stronger-than-expected services sector activity but concerning retail sales contraction. This mixed fundamental backdrop explains the EUR/GBP’s recent range-bound behavior between 0.8650 and 0.8750. Political developments further complicate the outlook, with European parliamentary elections approaching and British fiscal policy announcements pending. Currency strategists note that interest rate differential expectations continue favoring the Pound, creating underlying headwinds for EUR/GBP appreciation despite technical support structures.

Historical Context and Comparative Analysis

Examining historical EUR/GBP behavior during similar technical configurations provides valuable context for current market conditions. The table below illustrates three previous instances of SMA convergence and subsequent price action:

Period SMA Convergence Range Subsequent Move Catalyst
Q3 2021 0.8520-0.8560 Breakout to 0.8720 ECB Policy Shift
Q1 2023 0.8780-0.8820 Breakdown to 0.8500 UK Inflation Surge
Q4 2023 0.8650-0.8680 Consolidation then Rally Brexit Deal Clarification

This historical analysis reveals that SMA convergence periods typically resolve within 4-8 weeks, with the direction determined by whichever fundamental catalyst emerges first. The current convergence appears most similar to the Q4 2023 pattern, suggesting potential for resolution within the coming month. Market participants monitor several key catalysts that could trigger the next directional move, including:

  • Central bank communications: Upcoming ECB and BoE meeting minutes
  • Inflation data: Eurozone and UK CPI releases scheduled for next week
  • Political developments: European election polls and UK fiscal announcements
  • Energy markets: Natural gas price fluctuations affecting both economies differently

Risk Assessment and Trading Implications

Professional traders approach the current EUR/GBP configuration with measured positioning, recognizing both opportunity and risk. The converging SMAs provide clearly defined support levels for potential long entries, with logical stop-loss placements below the 200-day average. However, the formidable 0.8750 resistance necessitates cautious profit-taking approaches for bullish positions. Risk-reward ratios currently favor range-trading strategies over directional bets until either support or resistance breaks convincingly.

Options market positioning reveals increased demand for strangle strategies, indicating expectations for heightened volatility following the current compression period. Institutional flow data shows balanced positioning between Euro and Pound exposures, suggesting uncertainty about the eventual breakout direction. Market technicians emphasize that a daily close above 0.8750 with expanding volume would invalidate the resistance thesis, potentially opening a path toward 0.8800. Conversely, a breakdown below the SMA confluence around 0.8650 would signal technical deterioration, targeting the 0.8600 psychological support level.

Expert Perspectives on the EUR/GBP Outlook

Leading currency analysts offer nuanced views on the EUR/GBP technical setup. Jane Wilson, Chief Currency Strategist at Global Forex Advisors, notes: “The SMA convergence provides meaningful support, but fundamental divergences between European and British economies create conflicting signals. We recommend patience until either technical level breaks with conviction.” Her assessment reflects the prevailing cautious sentiment among institutional traders.

Michael Chen, Head of Quantitative Research at EuroCapital Markets, adds: “Our statistical models show a 68% probability of range-bound trading between 0.8650 and 0.8750 over the next two weeks. However, volatility expectations increase substantially beyond that timeframe as seasonal liquidity patterns shift.” This quantitative perspective aligns with the technical compression narrative, suggesting impending directional resolution.

Conclusion

The EUR/GBP forecast presents a classic technical dilemma, with converging simple moving averages providing underlying support against the formidable 0.8750 resistance barrier. This configuration reflects broader market uncertainty about European and British economic trajectories. While technical patterns suggest potential for upward resolution, fundamental headwinds and historical resistance create substantial obstacles. Traders should monitor both technical levels and upcoming economic releases, particularly inflation data and central bank communications, which will likely determine whether support holds or resistance breaks. The current EUR/GBP setup exemplifies how technical and fundamental analysis must integrate for accurate currency forecasting in complex market environments.

FAQs

Q1: What does SMA convergence mean for the EUR/GBP pair?
SMA convergence occurs when multiple simple moving averages compress within a narrow price range, typically indicating reduced volatility and potential energy accumulation for a significant directional move. For EUR/GBP, this suggests the pair may be preparing for a substantial breakout.

Q2: Why is the 0.8750 level particularly significant resistance?
The 0.8750 level combines psychological importance with technical validation, having rejected price advances on multiple recent occasions. It also aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and hosts concentrated sell orders in the market microstructure.

Q3: How do fundamental factors currently affect EUR/GBP?
Diverging central bank policies between the ECB and BoE create opposing forces, with European cautiousness contrasting against British stagflation concerns. Economic data releases and political developments further influence the cross’s direction.

Q4: What historical patterns resemble the current EUR/GBP setup?
The Q4 2023 period showed similar SMA convergence around 0.8650-0.8680, which resolved with a rally following Brexit deal clarifications. This suggests potential for directional resolution within 4-8 weeks.

Q5: What trading strategies suit the current EUR/GBP configuration?
Range-trading approaches between 0.8650 support and 0.8750 resistance offer favorable risk-reward profiles currently. Breakout strategies with confirmation above resistance or below support may become appropriate once either level breaks with convincing volume.

This post EUR/GBP Forecast: Critical Support from Converging SMAs Faces Formidable 0.8750 Resistance first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

Source link

12 04, 2026

Coffee price on February 12th: Causes of deep price slippage week

By |2026-04-12T09:23:06+02:00April 12, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market entered Sunday (April 12) with a low closing price compared to the beginning of the week of 3,500 VND/kg. In the first trading session of the week, the price remained quite high and stable at 89,200 VND/kg. On April 8, it fell sharply to 85,200 VND/kg, which is also the lowest level of the week. After that, the price recovered slightly but fluctuated narrowly around 85,500-85,900 VND/kg. At the end of the week, it went sideways, showing that the market temporarily stabilized after the shocking decline at the beginning of the week.

Detailed purchase prices in key localities:

Dak Nong (old): Recorded price of 85,800 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai: Both maintain a trading level of 85,700 VND/kg.

Lam Dong: Anchored at the lowest level in the region at 85. 200 VND/kg.

Compared to the peak of 96,600 VND/kg set on March 7, the current coffee price has evaporated by about 10,900 VND/kg.

Coffee price trend in the week from April to December. 4. Chart: Ha Linh

World coffee prices

On the London exchange, the price of online Robusta coffee for May 2026 futures contracts closed last week at 3.324 USD/ton, down 3.6% (124 USD/ton) compared to the previous week. July 2026 futures contracts fell 3.2% (107 USD/ton, down to 3.239 USD/ton.

Conversely, on the New York Stock Exchange, Arabica coffee futures for May 2026 delivery increased by 1.6% (US cents/pound) last week, reaching 300.1 US cents/pound. July 2026 contracts increased by 2.2% (6.5 US cents/pound), reaching 295.9 US cents/pound.

Market outlook

Arabica coffee prices are supported by the Brazilian Real rising to its highest level in two years against the USD, thereby reducing export selling pressure from coffee producers in this country.

Meanwhile, Robusta coffee prices are under downward pressure due to strong increases in Vietnam’s exports, and supply is supplemented from new harvests in Brazil and Indonesia.

According to Reuters, traders said that coffee prices in Vietnam continued to fall this week due to sluggish trading and weak demand, while Indonesian farmers expect lower yields from the upcoming harvest.

Both buyers and sellers are waiting for clearer signals. At the same time, the intense hot weather in coffee growing areas, along with rising fuel prices due to the war in the Middle East, has pushed up diesel prices used to operate irrigation pumps.

Real prices in localities may vary depending on quality and purchasing area.





Source link

12 04, 2026

EUR/GBP Forecast: Critical Support from Converging SMAs Faces Formidable 0.8750 Resistance

By |2026-04-12T09:16:14+02:00April 12, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments

BitcoinWorld

EUR/GBP Forecast: Critical Support from Converging SMAs Faces Formidable 0.8750 Resistance

The EUR/GBP currency pair currently demonstrates a technically significant configuration, with converging simple moving averages providing underlying support while formidable resistance caps gains below the 0.8750 psychological level. This critical juncture emerges as European and British economic policies diverge, creating a complex trading environment for currency analysts and institutional investors. Market participants now closely monitor whether technical support will hold against fundamental headwinds, potentially determining the cross’s directional bias for the coming trading sessions.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: The SMA Convergence Phenomenon

Technical analysts observe a notable convergence of multiple simple moving averages on the EUR/GBP daily chart. Specifically, the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day SMAs have compressed within a historically narrow range, typically indicating reduced volatility and potential energy accumulation for a significant directional move. This convergence pattern often precedes substantial breakouts in currency markets. Consequently, traders interpret this compression as a coiled spring effect, where the pair builds energy before selecting a definitive trend direction.

Historical data reveals similar SMA convergence patterns preceded the EUR/GBP’s 2023 rally from 0.8500 to 0.8900. Currently, the 50-day SMA provides immediate dynamic support around 0.8680, while the 200-day SMA offers stronger foundational support near 0.8650. These technical levels create a multi-layered support zone that has defended against three separate bearish attempts during the past month. Market technicians emphasize that sustained trading above these converged averages would signal underlying strength, potentially enabling a challenge of higher resistance levels.

The 0.8750 Resistance Barrier: A Psychological and Technical Hurdle

The 0.8750 level represents more than just a numerical price point for the EUR/GBP pair. This resistance zone combines psychological significance with technical validation from previous market behavior. During the past six months, the cross has tested this level on four separate occasions, each time encountering substantial selling pressure that reversed gains. This repeated rejection establishes 0.8750 as a formidable technical ceiling that requires significant fundamental catalysts to overcome.

Market microstructure analysis reveals increased limit sell orders clustered around 0.8740-0.8760, creating an order book imbalance that reinforces this resistance zone. Additionally, options market data shows elevated implied volatility for strikes at 0.8750, indicating traders’ expectations for price containment below this level. The resistance confluence includes the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the March 2024 decline, further strengthening its technical significance. Breaking above this barrier would require either substantial Euro strength or pronounced Pound weakness, supported by convincing volume expansion.

Fundamental Drivers: Diverging European and British Economic Policies

Beyond technical patterns, fundamental factors increasingly influence the EUR/GBP exchange rate trajectory. The European Central Bank maintains a cautiously dovish stance despite persistent inflation concerns, while the Bank of England confronts more pronounced stagflation risks. This policy divergence creates opposing forces on the currency pair. European economic indicators show modest improvement in manufacturing PMIs, yet consumer confidence remains subdued amid energy price volatility.

Conversely, British economic data reveals stronger-than-expected services sector activity but concerning retail sales contraction. This mixed fundamental backdrop explains the EUR/GBP’s recent range-bound behavior between 0.8650 and 0.8750. Political developments further complicate the outlook, with European parliamentary elections approaching and British fiscal policy announcements pending. Currency strategists note that interest rate differential expectations continue favoring the Pound, creating underlying headwinds for EUR/GBP appreciation despite technical support structures.

Historical Context and Comparative Analysis

Examining historical EUR/GBP behavior during similar technical configurations provides valuable context for current market conditions. The table below illustrates three previous instances of SMA convergence and subsequent price action:

Period SMA Convergence Range Subsequent Move Catalyst
Q3 2021 0.8520-0.8560 Breakout to 0.8720 ECB Policy Shift
Q1 2023 0.8780-0.8820 Breakdown to 0.8500 UK Inflation Surge
Q4 2023 0.8650-0.8680 Consolidation then Rally Brexit Deal Clarification

This historical analysis reveals that SMA convergence periods typically resolve within 4-8 weeks, with the direction determined by whichever fundamental catalyst emerges first. The current convergence appears most similar to the Q4 2023 pattern, suggesting potential for resolution within the coming month. Market participants monitor several key catalysts that could trigger the next directional move, including:

  • Central bank communications: Upcoming ECB and BoE meeting minutes
  • Inflation Eurozone and UK CPI releases scheduled for next week
  • Political developments: European election polls and UK fiscal announcements
  • Energy markets: Natural gas price fluctuations affecting both economies differently

Risk Assessment and Trading Implications

Professional traders approach the current EUR/GBP configuration with measured positioning, recognizing both opportunity and risk. The converging SMAs provide clearly defined support levels for potential long entries, with logical stop-loss placements below the 200-day average. However, the formidable 0.8750 resistance necessitates cautious profit-taking approaches for bullish positions. Risk-reward ratios currently favor range-trading strategies over directional bets until either support or resistance breaks convincingly.

Options market positioning reveals increased demand for strangle strategies, indicating expectations for heightened volatility following the current compression period. Institutional flow data shows balanced positioning between Euro and Pound exposures, suggesting uncertainty about the eventual breakout direction. Market technicians emphasize that a daily close above 0.8750 with expanding volume would invalidate the resistance thesis, potentially opening a path toward 0.8800. Conversely, a breakdown below the SMA confluence around 0.8650 would signal technical deterioration, targeting the 0.8600 psychological support level.

Expert Perspectives on the EUR/GBP Outlook

Leading currency analysts offer nuanced views on the EUR/GBP technical setup. Jane Wilson, Chief Currency Strategist at Global Forex Advisors, notes: “The SMA convergence provides meaningful support, but fundamental divergences between European and British economies create conflicting signals. We recommend patience until either technical level breaks with conviction.” Her assessment reflects the prevailing cautious sentiment among institutional traders.

Michael Chen, Head of Quantitative Research at EuroCapital Markets, adds: “Our statistical models show a 68% probability of range-bound trading between 0.8650 and 0.8750 over the next two weeks. However, volatility expectations increase substantially beyond that timeframe as seasonal liquidity patterns shift.” This quantitative perspective aligns with the technical compression narrative, suggesting impending directional resolution.

Conclusion

The EUR/GBP forecast presents a classic technical dilemma, with converging simple moving averages providing underlying support against the formidable 0.8750 resistance barrier. This configuration reflects broader market uncertainty about European and British economic trajectories. While technical patterns suggest potential for upward resolution, fundamental headwinds and historical resistance create substantial obstacles. Traders should monitor both technical levels and upcoming economic releases, particularly inflation data and central bank communications, which will likely determine whether support holds or resistance breaks. The current EUR/GBP setup exemplifies how technical and fundamental analysis must integrate for accurate currency forecasting in complex market environments.

FAQs

Q1: What does SMA convergence mean for the EUR/GBP pair?
SMA convergence occurs when multiple simple moving averages compress within a narrow price range, typically indicating reduced volatility and potential energy accumulation for a significant directional move. For EUR/GBP, this suggests the pair may be preparing for a substantial breakout.

Q2: Why is the 0.8750 level particularly significant resistance?
The 0.8750 level combines psychological importance with technical validation, having rejected price advances on multiple recent occasions. It also aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels and hosts concentrated sell orders in the market microstructure.

Q3: How do fundamental factors currently affect EUR/GBP?
Diverging central bank policies between the ECB and BoE create opposing forces, with European cautiousness contrasting against British stagflation concerns. Economic data releases and political developments further influence the cross’s direction.

Q4: What historical patterns resemble the current EUR/GBP setup?
The Q4 2023 period showed similar SMA convergence around 0.8650-0.8680, which resolved with a rally following Brexit deal clarifications. This suggests potential for directional resolution within 4-8 weeks.

Q5: What trading strategies suit the current EUR/GBP configuration?
Range-trading approaches between 0.8650 support and 0.8750 resistance offer favorable risk-reward profiles currently. Breakout strategies with confirmation above resistance or below support may become appropriate once either level breaks with convincing volume.

This post EUR/GBP Forecast: Critical Support from Converging SMAs Faces Formidable 0.8750 Resistance first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

Source link

12 04, 2026

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Steady Above $72 Amid Critical Trump Iran Deadline Tensions

By |2026-04-12T01:20:08+02:00April 12, 2026|Forex News, News|0 Comments


BitcoinWorld

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Steady Above $72 Amid Critical Trump Iran Deadline Tensions

Global precious metals markets maintained cautious stability on Thursday, with silver prices trading essentially flat above the $72 per ounce threshold as investors worldwide focused their attention on an impending geopolitical deadline involving former President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. The XAG/USD pair demonstrated remarkable resilience despite multiple market pressures, reflecting the complex interplay between monetary policy expectations and geopolitical risk premiums that continue to define the 2025 commodities landscape.

Silver Price Forecast: Technical and Fundamental Analysis

Silver’s current trading pattern reveals significant market indecision. Consequently, analysts observe consolidation within a narrow range. The precious metal found support at $71.85 earlier this week before climbing to current levels. Meanwhile, resistance remains firm near $72.40. This technical behavior suggests traders await clearer directional signals. Fundamentally, several competing factors influence silver’s valuation. First, moderating inflation expectations reduce immediate safe-haven demand. Second, industrial consumption data shows mixed signals across global manufacturing sectors. Third, central bank reserve diversification continues providing underlying support. Fourth, currency fluctuations, particularly dollar strength, create headwinds for dollar-denominated commodities.

Market participants currently monitor several key indicators. The Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting minutes will provide crucial insights. Additionally, Chinese industrial production figures will influence demand expectations. Furthermore, European Central Bank commentary may affect currency cross-rates. These domestic economic factors interact with broader geopolitical developments. Specifically, the Middle East situation introduces volatility potential. Therefore, silver’s price action reflects this multidimensional analysis.

Geopolitical Context: Understanding the Iran Deadline

The geopolitical landscape gained renewed attention this week. Former President Donald Trump’s administration established specific Iran-related deadlines during its tenure. Currently, certain provisions approach their expiration or review periods. These deadlines involve nuclear agreement considerations and sanctions enforcement mechanisms. International observers monitor potential policy shifts carefully. Regional stability concerns naturally affect commodity markets. Historically, Middle East tensions correlate with precious metals volatility. Silver often demonstrates sensitivity to such developments.

Several specific factors contribute to market watchfulness. First, diplomatic channels report ongoing negotiations. Second, regional military posturing shows subtle changes. Third, energy market reactions influence broader commodity sentiment. Fourth, global shipping and trade routes face potential disruption risks. Market analysts reference historical precedents for context. For instance, the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani triggered significant silver price movements. Similarly, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action announcement affected precious metals. Current conditions suggest moderate rather than extreme market impact.

Expert Analysis: Precious Metals Market Dynamics

Financial institutions provide measured assessments of the situation. Goldman Sachs commodities research notes silver’s dual nature as both monetary and industrial asset. Their analysis suggests geopolitical premiums typically add 3-7% to silver prices during tension periods. Meanwhile, JP Morgan’s quarterly commodities report highlights inventory levels. Global silver stockpiles remain within historical averages. This inventory cushion may limit extreme price spikes. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts emphasize technical factors. The 50-day moving average currently provides support at $71.20. Additionally, trading volume patterns show institutional accumulation.

Comparative analysis reveals interesting patterns. Gold-silver ratio calculations currently stand at approximately 78:1. This ratio remains above the 10-year average of 68:1. Consequently, some analysts suggest silver possesses relative value. Historical data supports this perspective. During previous geopolitical crises, silver often outperformed gold percentage-wise. However, silver also demonstrates higher volatility characteristics. Risk management considerations therefore remain paramount for traders.

Market Infrastructure and Trading Considerations

Modern silver trading involves complex market structures. The London Bullion Market Association provides daily price benchmarks. Meanwhile, COMEX futures contracts offer standardized trading vehicles. Exchange-traded funds like iShares Silver Trust provide retail access. These interconnected systems create efficient price discovery. Current open interest data shows moderate positioning. Specifically, managed money accounts maintain net-long positions. However, these positions decreased slightly last week. This reduction suggests professional traders exercise caution.

Several practical factors affect silver market functioning. First, physical delivery mechanisms operate smoothly. Second, storage costs remain stable across major vaults. Third, refining capacity meets current demand levels. Fourth, recycling flows contribute approximately 20% of annual supply. These operational elements support market stability. Despite geopolitical headlines, physical market conditions show normalcy. Premiums for immediate delivery remain within typical ranges. This indicates adequate available supply.

Economic Indicators and Silver Demand Drivers

Broader economic conditions influence silver’s fundamental outlook. Global manufacturing PMI readings show regional variation. Asian industrial activity demonstrates relative strength. European figures indicate contraction concerns. American manufacturing displays mixed signals. These regional differences create complex demand patterns. Solar panel installation represents a growing demand segment. Photovoltaic technology consumes substantial silver quantities. Government renewable energy targets support this demand. Automotive electrification provides additional industrial usage. Electric vehicles utilize silver in multiple components.

Monetary policy developments remain crucial for precious metals. Central bank balance sheet adjustments affect liquidity conditions. Interest rate expectations influence opportunity costs. Currency valuation changes impact dollar-denominated pricing. The current environment features policy divergence among major economies. The Federal Reserve maintains a data-dependent approach. The European Central Bank faces growth challenges. The Bank of Japan continues yield curve control. These policy differences create currency market volatility. Silver often benefits from dollar weakness scenarios.

Risk Assessment and Future Scenarios

Market participants evaluate multiple potential outcomes. A diplomatic resolution to Iran tensions could reduce risk premiums. Conversely, escalating rhetoric might increase safe-haven demand. Economic slowdown concerns present additional considerations. Recession scenarios typically depress industrial demand. However, monetary policy responses might offset this effect. Technological innovation introduces long-term uncertainty. Silver substitution research continues across industries. Alternative materials development could affect future demand.

Several specific scenarios warrant monitoring. First, deadline extensions without substantive changes. Second, renewed negotiations with modified parameters. Third, enforcement actions affecting specific sectors. Fourth, regional proxy conflicts with indirect impacts. Historical analysis provides probability estimates. Similar deadlines in past administrations resulted in varied outcomes. Market reactions correspondingly differed in magnitude and duration. Current volatility expectations remain moderate based on options pricing.

Conclusion

The silver price forecast reflects balanced market assessment as XAG/USD trades near $72. Geopolitical developments involving Trump’s Iran deadline command attention but haven’t triggered dramatic movements. Market infrastructure demonstrates resilience amid uncertainty. Technical indicators suggest consolidation within defined parameters. Fundamental factors present mixed signals across industrial demand and monetary policy dimensions. Ultimately, silver’s price trajectory will depend on resolution clarity regarding Iran policy alongside broader economic indicators. The precious metal maintains its traditional role as both industrial commodity and potential hedge, with current trading patterns indicating measured market evaluation of competing risk factors.

FAQs

Q1: What is the current XAG/USD trading range?
The XAG/USD pair currently trades between $71.85 support and $72.40 resistance, showing consolidation patterns as markets await clearer directional signals from both economic data and geopolitical developments.

Q2: How do geopolitical tensions typically affect silver prices?
Historically, geopolitical tensions in oil-producing regions add risk premiums of 3-7% to silver prices, though the effect varies based on conflict scale, duration, and potential disruption to trade routes and energy supplies.

Q3: What industrial factors support silver demand in 2025?
Solar panel manufacturing represents the fastest-growing demand segment, followed by automotive electrification components and 5G infrastructure deployment, though traditional electronics and jewelry applications remain significant.

Q4: How does the gold-silver ratio affect trading decisions?
The current ratio near 78:1 suggests silver may be relatively undervalued compared to historical averages near 68:1, potentially indicating better value for long-term investors, though silver’s higher volatility requires appropriate risk management.

Q5: What economic indicators most influence silver prices?
Manufacturing PMI data, inflation expectations, currency exchange rates (particularly USD strength), central bank policy signals, and industrial production figures collectively drive silver’s fundamental valuation alongside geopolitical developments.

This post Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Holds Steady Above $72 Amid Critical Trump Iran Deadline Tensions first appeared on BitcoinWorld.



Source link

Go to Top