2026.10.02 2026.10.02
GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 02.10.26–09.10.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.3308 with a target of 1.2938–1.2745. A sell signal: the price holds below 1.3308. Stop Loss: above 1.3355, Take Profit: 1.2938–1.2745.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3308 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3560–1.3675. A buy signal: the level of 1.3308 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 1.3265, Take Profit: 1.3560–1.3675.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.3308 with a target of 1.2938–1.2745.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above 1.3308 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3560–1.3675.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree (A) of B is developing. Within it, wave 1 of (A) has formed, a downward correction has been completed as wave 2 of (A), and the third wave 3 of (А) is unfolding. Apparently, the first wave of smaller degree i of 3 has formed and corrective wave ii of 3 is developing on the daily chart. Wave (c) of ii is forming on the H4 chart, with wave iii of (c) still developing as part of its structure. If the presumption is correct, GBP/USD will continue to decline to the levels of 1.2938–1.2745. The level of 1.3308 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3560–1.3675.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time. 

Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

The EURGBP confirmed its surrender to the dominant bearish trend by providing several closes below 0.8600 level, activating with the main indicators’ negativity by forming sharp decline, to surpass the initial targets to settle near 0.8515.

Forming extra barrier at 0.8454 level and stochastic reach to the oversold level, we expect renewing the negative attempts, to target 0.8490 and 0.8470 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8490 and 0.8520

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1260 on the 2-hour chart as it rebounds from the latest decline. I see price trading below both moving averages, and still within a longer-term bearish move. The bounce, however, is improving momentum in the near-term, and I am looking for the first Fibonacci level at 1.1278 to be tested.

The next resistance would be at 1.1298, with 1.1317 above that. The support would be at 1.1254, and then 1.1215 and 1.1189.

RSI is moving up from the oversold area, but is still below the center line. This means the bullish momentum is not confirming a trend reversal, and I would expect price to continue falling, while staying below 1.1278 and 1.1298. I would see a break above 1.1317 as bullish and a break below 1.1254 as more bears coming in toward 1.1215.

The 2-year yield I’m watching is dropping after the jobs report came in very anemic on Friday. We had anticipated 90,000 jobs added; we got 29,000. So, the idea is maybe the Federal Reserve won’t have to raise rates as quickly. We’ll have to wait and see, but this will have a major influence on how certain assets play out, and that is in the back of my mind.

The GBPJPY pair ended the bullish corrective rebound by providing a new negative close below 210.45 barrier, forming a sharp decline by targeting 207.60, repeating the sideways fluctuation by its stability above 208.10 level, which represents a confirmation key for the near trading.

The contradiction of the main indicators might push the price to provide unstable sideways trading, while its move below 208.10 and providing a negative close will increase the chances of resuming the bearish trend, to expect reaching 206.80, and surpassing this barrier will extend the trading towards 206.25 and 205.65.

The expected trading range for today is between 208.10 and 209.45

Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bearish trend

The EURJPY pair kept its stability below the additional barrier that is represented by 179.45 level, activating the negative trend and recording initial extra target by reaching 176.75 level.

The current corrective rebound will not threaten the bearish trend, depending on the stability below 180.80 resistance, besides the continuation of forming extra barrier at 179.45 level, and providing negative momentum by the main indicators makes us prefer breaking 176.70 level, to open the way for reaching new bearish stations that might begin at 176.00 and 175.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 176.00 and 178.20

Trend forecast: Bearish