Brent crude oil price ended the week lower as investors anticipated an Iranian response to US proposals to end the ten-week war. It dropped to $100, down sharply from this month’s high of over $115 a barrel. Other global benchmarks like the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Russian urals have also retreated.

Iran is in no hurry to reach a deal

Brent crude oil price retreated after media reports suggested that a deal between Iran and the United States was imminent. Axios was the first major news organization to report this. In his report, Barack Ravid said that the two sides were working on a one-page document that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The United States sent Iran a proposal on this deal late last week. In a press gaggle on Friday, Trump said that the US was waiting for Iranian’s proposal “tonight.” At press time, Iran was yet to submit the proposal, a sign that officials are not in a hurry.

Analysts believe that divisions between the US and Iran are extremely wide and hard to bridge. For one, the US will want Iran to hand it over the highly enriched uranium, which Trump will use to tout his success. Iran has largely ruled that out.

On the other hand, Iran will want an end to sanctions and the release of billions of dollars held in foreign accounts. Such a move will be risky for Trump, who has accused President Obama of shipping billions of dollars to Iran after the signing of the Iran nuclear deal.

Therefore, there is still a risk that the ongoing crisis will continue for longer than Trump expects. Such a move would lead to higher crude oil prices for longer.

In addition to the closure of the Hormuz Strait, the reality is that oil inventories are falling in some key countries. Data shows that global oil inventories fell by about 4.8 million barrels a day between March and late April.

Analysts believe that the oil supply shock will worsen even when the war ends because of the declining inventories. In a warning statement last week, Jeff Currie, a top analyst at Carlyle Group, said that US oil storage tanks may run empty around July 4th this year.

Looking ahead, signs of a potential deal between the US and Iran will be bearish for oil prices. Signs of an escalation, on the other hand, will lead to a reversal.

A key wildcard will be Donald Trump’s trip to China, where he will ask Beijing to press Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While the closure is affecting Beijing, chances are that Xi will not be interested in helping the US.

Brent crude oil price is sending mixed signals

Crude oil price chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart reveals that Brent has come under pressure in the past few days. It has pulled back from $116 earlier this month to the current $100.

A closer look shows that it may have formed a double-top pattern whose neckline is at $85. However, one can also argue that it has formed an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern and is now in the right shoulder.

Therefore, this week will be crucial as traders wait for the outcome of the ongoing talks. The most likely scenario is where the inverted H&S pattern activates and retests the key resistance at $115. A drop below the support at $96 will invalidate the bearish outlook.

2026.05.08 2026.05.08
WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 08.05.26–15.05.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 87.20 with a target of 115.70–126.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 87.20. Stop Loss: below 85.50, Take Profit: 115.70–126.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 87.20 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00. A sell signal: the level of 87.20 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 88.80, Take Profit: 78.70–65.00.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 87.20 with a target of 115.70–126.00.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 87.20 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00.

Analysis

A descending correction appears to have formed as the second wave of larger degree (2) on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily time frame, an ascending third wave (3) has started unfolding, with the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) still developing as its part. Apparently, wave v of 1 is developing on the H4 time frame, with a local correction (ii) of v formed as its part. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 115.70–126.00 within wave (iii) of v. The level of 87.20 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode

NEW YORK, May 9, 2026, 05:42 EDT

Natural gas futures in the U.S. wrapped up the week just under $2.80 per million British thermal units. Prices held their ground on a lighter storage build, though a decisive move higher remained elusive with spring demand lagging. As of May 8, Trading Economics showed natural gas at $2.80, marking a monthly gain of roughly 5%, but the contract is still off more than 26% compared to the same period last year.

The timing lands in the shoulder season—the lull between heavy winter heating and the onset of summer air-conditioning demand. During this stretch, traders pay close attention to storage levels, export activity, and weather forecasts, since day-to-day demand can shift abruptly.

Underground gas storage in the U.S. reached 2,205 bcf for the week ending May 1, according to the Energy Information Administration. That’s a 63 bcf build from the previous week. Inventories now stand 75 bcf higher than this time last year and 139 bcf above the five-year average. While supplies remain comfortable, traders had been looking for a touch more slack.

The reported 63 bcf injection missed forecasts for a 74 bcf build and trailed the five-year average gain of 77 bcf, StoneX noted after the data hit. While a smaller build isn’t a sign of scarcity, it does chip away at just how persistent the surplus appears.

Gelber & Associates pointed to “a rapidly fading heating season” bumping up against the first notable summer cooling demand, with pipeline exports to Mexico approaching 7.5 bcf/d lending a floor. NatGasWeather.com noted that extended forecasts now tilt hotter-than-normal for much of the interior U.S. heading into late May and early June. The Wall Street Journal

Supply remains steady. U.S. drillers bumped up oil and gas rigs for the third week running, bringing the count to 548, according to Baker Hughes. Gas rigs ticked down by one to 129. The EIA projects U.S. gas production will edge up to 109.6 bcf/d in 2026, compared with a record 107.7 bcf/d seen in 2025, Reuters said.

For now, the EIA’s outlook is muted, not wild. The agency projects Henry Hub—the main U.S. benchmark out of Louisiana—hovering near $3.10 per MMBtu for both Q2 and Q3. By 2026, it expects a yearly average of $3.67. On the export front, U.S. liquefied natural gas shipments are set to reach 17.0 bcf/d in 2026, topping the prior year’s record 15.1 bcf/d.

U.S. gas finds an extra lift from global markets. Asia’s spot LNG prices slipped to $16.90 per MMBtu for June, down from $17.80, according to Reuters, but that’s still a hefty premium over Henry Hub. ICIS analyst Evan Tan pointed to “current spot prices have started to ease off” as traders watch for a potential U.S.-Iran agreement and sluggish buying in North Asia. Yet Hans Van Cleef at EqoLibrium said the firmer Asian market means “all uncontracted cargoes are heading to Asia.” Reuters

Bulls could see their case unravel in a hurry. A cool-down after late May, ongoing LNG maintenance that’s still limiting export demand, or bigger builds in the upcoming storage reports—any of these could send the market slipping into that softer spring mood again. With inventories running above average, sellers aren’t shy about hitting into any rally.

Looking ahead, range-bound action seems most likely, though there’s a slight tilt higher if weekend weather models keep the heat. Edging up to $3? That’ll require a clear boost in power burn or LNG feedgas running hotter. Otherwise, Thursday’s storage surprise offers a floor, not fresh direction.