DAX 40 trades near 26,520, above its moving averages, with resistance around 26,750. Source: TradingView.
The DAX in Germany remains positive, but we are slamming into significant resistance. The DAX rising as oil continues to fall is a theme here. There are a lot of concerns about European energy over the winter, especially. But right now, I think there’s a barrier right around €26,750 that we need to get beyond in order to start seeing a bigger move.
At this point, a pullback makes sense, but I think that only offers a buying opportunity, especially if we can see this thing drop closer to 26,000. I don’t expect that today. It’s probably easier to break out than to get down there. But if we do break out to the €26,750 level, I’ll be buying that FOMO move.
The EURUSD pair edged lower in its latest intraday trading, taking a breather to lock in gains from its previous advance while attempting to unwind some of its clearly overbought conditions on the relative strength indicators, particularly amid emerging negative signals from these indicators. This comes amid the dominance of a short-term upward corrective wave, while the pair continues to benefit from trading above its EMA50, which provides dynamic support and strengthens its chances of recovering and resuming its gains in the near term.
EUR/GBP Forecast: ING Sees a Recovery to 84 Pence in Coming Weeks
ING expects the Euro to recover to 84 pence in the coming weeks as doubts about further UK rate rises limit the Pound’s advantage over the single currency.
The Euro-to-Pound exchange rate closed at 83.45 pence in New York on Friday. ING expects a recovery to 84 pence in the coming weeks, a rise of around 0.7% from the closing rate recorded by Crédit Agricole CIB. ING sees room for that move even if uncertainty over French public finances continues to weigh on the Euro.
Francesco Pesole, an FX strategist at ING, writes, “EUR/GBP continues to trade sharply below its short-term fair value, by around 2.6-2.8% according to our models. That continues to reflect the euro’s idiosyncratic premium related to French risk (EUR/GBP has been one of the favourite channels), but even accounting for that, the decline in the pair looks a bit too stretched.”
How much more can UK rates do for Sterling?
All nine Bank of England policymakers voted to raise rates on 5 November. Eight backed the quarter-point increase to 4% and Catherine Mann preferred half a point. For Sterling, the difficulty is that investors have already seen how much agreement there was about raising rates from 3.75%. The next vote will depend on whether policymakers think 4% provides enough restraint.
Pesole writes, “The lack of dovish dissenters in November reinforced our view that the BoE will hike again in February, with some risk already in December. However, as we note here, consensus around another rate increase will likely be harder to achieve next time, as some members are considering a one-and-done approach as a possibility.”
ING therefore expects Sterling to give back some ground even as it forecasts another British rate rise. Governor Andrew Bailey’s caution concerns how far the Bank will ultimately go. If the next increase brings the cycle to an end, the Pound may already reflect much of the extra return UK rates will offer. “A return to 0.840 in EUR/GBP remains the most realistic move in the coming weeks, in our view.”
Bond markets have moved further than the Euro
Crédit Agricole’s model gives a different perspective on the size of the gap. Its strategists Valentin Marinov and David Forrester write, “EUR/GBP’s fair value increased from 0.8469 to 0.8496 due to a rise in the Eurozone-UK box yield spread, as well as a fall in the peripheral EGB yield spread to Bunds. EUR/GBP spot has instead steadied near its recent lows, thus staying more than 1.5 standard deviations undervalued.”
The narrower gap between peripheral eurozone government bond yields and German Bund yields means investors were demanding less extra interest to hold the former. That improvement lifted the model’s valuation while the Euro remained near 83.45 pence. At Friday’s close the bank put the shortfall at 1.77%. Even a recovery to ING’s 84 pence would close only a little over a third of the distance to Crédit Agricole’s estimate. If yields on peripheral eurozone bonds rise again relative to German Bund yields, the model could put a lower value on the Euro.
Who was still buying the Pound?
Crédit Agricole’s separate positioning report shows how much the answer depends on which investors are counted. “The GBP enjoyed some buying interest last week, predominantly driven by IMM flows. Our FX flow data points at hedge funds inflows, as well as banks, corporates and real money investors outflows. All in all, the GBP is in overbought territory.”
The futures market was an important source of last week’s demand for Sterling. Hedge funds were buyers in the bank’s own flow data too, while companies and longer-term investors were sellers. If the prospect of further UK tightening becomes less convincing, some of those existing buyers may reduce their exposure. The bank also observed buying on the other side of the cross. “The EUR enjoyed fresh buying interest last week, predominantly driven by Tactical flows. Our FX flow data points at hedge funds inflows, as well as banks, corporates and real money investors outflows.”
Hedge funds were buying both currencies. The figures cover each currency across markets, so the transactions could include purchases against the Dollar or other currencies.
What this means for EUR/GBP
Standard Chartered sees scope for a larger technical rebound towards 84.50 pence. Its strategists Vincent Tan and Iris Yuen see reasons for Euro demand to recover even if UK rates stay higher. “In contrast, the ECB held its deposit rate at 2.50% in October but signalled readiness to tighten if inflation remains elevated. We expect Euro area inflation to rise further, keeping the ECB’s tightening bias alive. This suggests EUR/GBP has fallen too far relative to interest rate differentials.”
Their assessment also rests on developments outside the central banks. “Germany’s planned increase in federal debt issuance should support Euro area growth, while Moody’s decision not to downgrade France has removed an important EUR tail risk. Meanwhile, tighter UK fiscal policy is likely to weigh on domestic growth and business investment. We expect EUR/GBP to recover towards 0.8450.”
At Friday’s close, a UK importer needed £8,345 to buy €10,000 before fees. ING’s forecast would raise the bill to £8,400 and Standard Chartered’s rebound would take it to £8,450. The first half-penny of recovery would require only a partial easing of the discount both ING and Crédit Agricole see in Friday’s exchange rate.
Platinum price has once again responded to the positive signals from stochastic, breaking above the additional barrier at $1550.00 yesterday, signaling its readiness to record further gains in the near term. We expect trading to move toward $1610.00, with positive momentum potentially extending gains toward $1655.00, which represents the main target for current trading.
A return to trading below $1515.00 will force the price to resume its bearish pressure, to expect further losses toward $1470.00 and $1440.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1520.00 and $1610.00.
(MENAFN– Daily Forex) The U.S. dollar continues to see a lot of noise at the moment, as we are looking at the reaction to interest rates playing out, as the employment numbers were much stronger than expected.USD/JPYThe U.S. dollar initially pulled back a bit during the Friday session but then turned around to show signs of life. Ultimately, this is a market that is range-bound, as we have been seeing a lot of sideways action from the middle of September to now. The 200-day EMA is flat, with the 50-day EMA sitting just above it, just as flat.Top Regulated Brokers1 Get Started 74% of retail CFD accounts lose money Interest rate differentialsThe interest rate differential is something worth watching. That being said, the interest rate differential is something worth watching, as you get paid to hang on to this pair to the upside. I think that is a lot of what was reinforced today, as the United States added 165,000 jobs last month.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan, which does have a meeting here fairly soon, may or may not hike rates. The latest one reiterated a 1.25% overnight rate. The Americans almost certainly will have to in December. I think that has got to be close to 100% certainty at this point. Before the announcement, it was something like 75%. This market will almost certainly be expecting the interest rate differential to widen, not shrink.
EURUSD Chart by TradingViewWith this being the case, I like buying dips. I do think that eventually, if we can break above the ¥159 level, that is your signal to start getting long from a longer-term standpoint.For myself, I am building a position on dips. As long as we can stay above the crucial ¥156.50 level, I think this is a market that continues to see plenty of support underneath that people are willing to express. This is a market that I am only buying and not worrying about selling at this point in timeWant to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.
TradingKey – On November 10, international oil prices extended their downward trend, with Brent crude (UKOIL) futures falling below the $90 round-number mark, trading at $89.96 per barrel, while WTI crude (USOIL) futures retreated to around $84.36 per barrel. Both benchmarks dropped to their lowest levels since late August, signaling that the geopolitical premium previously driven by Middle East tensions is rapidly unwinding.
U.S. President Trump stated that military action against Iran appears unnecessary at this time. This remark lowered market expectations of a renewed escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict and eased investor concerns over disruptions to Middle East crude production and transport. As the risk of near-term supply disruptions subsided, traders began unwinding previously established safe-haven positions, prompting oil prices to further surrender earlier gains.
ING analysts noted that the market is reassessing the U.S.-Iran situation, and as expectations of de-escalation strengthen, part of the risk premium priced into crude oil over the past several weeks continues to be squeezed out. Meanwhile, oil shipments along some Middle East shipping routes have shown signs of recovery, further reducing expectations of supply shortages. In the absence of fresh geopolitical shocks, the pricing logic for oil is gradually shifting from potential supply disruptions back to actual supply and demand fundamentals.
However, the situation in the Middle East has not fully stabilized. The foundation for negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remains fragile, and regional energy facilities and key shipping lanes still face potential risks. If talks stall again or oil production and transport infrastructure come under attack, the risk premium that has been discounted by the market could quickly return. Therefore, the current decline in oil prices reflects a reduced probability of conflict escalation rather than the complete elimination of related risks.
Source: TradingView
From a technical perspective, Brent crude has broken below the ascending trendline formed since its July low and lost the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $93.96, damaging its prior medium-term upward structure. Crude prices are also currently trading well below the 20-day moving average of $105.93 and the 60-day moving average of $101.18. Both moving averages have begun turning downward, indicating that short- and medium-term trends are dominated by bears.
The most critical support level to monitor currently is at $88.36, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of this rally. Although Brent crude broke below $90 intraday, it has not yet decisively breached this support. If the $88 to $90 area can attract dip-buying interest, oil prices may first stage a technical rebound, with initial overhead resistance near $93.96. Only a sustained move back above $94 would likely slow the pace of the short-term decline.
If Brent crude confirms a break below $88.36 on a daily closing basis, it would signify a failure of the 61.8% retracement level, and the next downside target could shift to $80.38. Calculated from $88.36, a decline to that level would represent a potential drop of approximately 9%. The vicinity of $80 corresponds not only to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, but also to a high-volume consolidation zone formed between July and August, which is expected to serve as a more vital defensive line for the bulls.
Momentum indicators also reflect that oil prices remain weak. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 33.43, well below its smoothed signal line of 51.28 and inching closer to the oversold threshold of 30. This suggests that bearish momentum still holds the upper hand, though after consecutive declines, the risk of chasing short positions in the near term is also mounting. If the RSI dips into oversold territory while crude holds above $88, the market could see a temporary rebound driven by short covering.
However, approaching oversold conditions does not mean the downtrend is over. Under a markedly weakening trend, the RSI can linger at low levels for an extended period. Even if Brent crude rebounds from the $88 to $90 zone, it would need to reclaim $93.96 and $101.18 in succession to relieve current technical pressure. Within that range, the $100 to $101 area combines a psychological round-number threshold and the 60-day moving average, which is expected to pose formidable resistance; further above, the $105 to $106 zone remains a crucial hurdle that must be cleared before the trend can regain upside momentum.
The pair ended its recent bearish attempts after touching the 176.15 level, before beginning to form some upward corrective waves and advancing toward 177.30. This indicates that it is currently resisting negative pressure, increasing the chances of renewed pressure on the resistance barrier near 178.10.
We would like to note that breaking above the targeted barrier and holding above it would open the way toward new bullish targets at 178.70 and 179.40. However, renewed bearish momentum would require the price to break below the support level at 174.95 and hold below it.
The expected trading range for today is between 176.40 and 178.10
Copper continued to post upward corrective trades, but its repeated positioning below the additional barrier at $6.4200 supports the dominance of the bearish bias in the near and medium terms. We currently emphasize the importance of gathering negative momentum, which could facilitate a move toward the bearish targets, starting at $6.2100 and extending to the support level at $6.1000.
On the other hand, breaking above the aforementioned barrier and holding above it would confirm the continuation of the bullish corrective scenario, giving the price an opportunity to achieve further gains by gradually advancing toward $6.4900, followed by the next resistance level near $6.6100.
The expected trading range for today is between $6.2100 and $6.4000
U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders focus on the strong pullback in the oil markets, which is driven by Iran deal hopes. Demand for safe-haven assets declined, which was bearish for the American currency.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the 50 MA at 101.81. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next support, which is located in the 101.50 – 101.65 range. A successful test of the support at 101.50 – 101.65 will open the way to the test of the next support level at 100.85 – 101.00.
Domestic pepper prices in key producing areas remained unchanged compared to the previous session, staying within the range of 135,500 – 138,000 VND/kg.
Specifically, Dak Lak continues to lead the country with a purchase price of 138,000 VND/kg. In Lam Dong province, the price of pepper is recorded at 137,000 VND/kg.
In Ho Chi Minh City, the price remained at 136,000 VND/kg. Meanwhile, Gia Lai and Dong Nai provinces traded at 135,500 VND/kg.
Illustration photo: 24h.com.vn
On the world market, the International Pepper Community (IPC) reports that pepper prices in key producing countries are generally stable.
Indonesian black pepper prices are currently at $6,799 per ton. Brazil maintains ASTA 570 black pepper prices at $5,700 per ton, while Malaysia continues to lead the surveyed group with $9,100 per ton.
For Vietnam, the export price of black pepper (500 g/l) remained at US$5,950/ton, while the price for the 550 g/l variety reached US$5,995/ton.
In the white pepper segment, Indonesia maintained a price of $9,285/ton, Malaysia reached $12,000/ton, and Vietnam kept its price at $8,450/ton.
According to data from the International Trade Centre (ITC), in the first nine months of 2026, the US imported 68,797 tons of pepper, worth $524 million.
Compared to the same period in 2025, import volume increased by 7.1%, equivalent to an increase of 4,538 tons, while value increased by 6.9%. However, compared to the first nine months of 2024, import volume is still 5.9% lower, indicating that demand in the US market has not fully returned to the levels of two years ago.
Notably, Vietnam continues to be the largest supplier of pepper to the US with a volume of 54,939 tons, a 23.3% increase compared to the same period last year, equivalent to an increase of 10,389 tons.
As a result, Vietnam’s pepper market share in the US increased from 69.3% to 79.9%, equivalent to an improvement of approximately 10.6 percentage points.
This means that for every 10 tons of US pepper imported in the first nine months of the year, nearly 8 tons came from Vietnam.
Vietnam’s export growth has significantly outpaced the overall US import growth rate, thereby offsetting declines from some competing sources.
These figures show that Vietnam’s position in the US market continues to strengthen, especially as two major suppliers, India and Indonesia, both recorded a decrease in exports to this market.
However, the increase in market share also means that Vietnamese businesses need to focus on maintaining quality, meeting import standards, and ensuring a stable supply to retain their competitive advantage.
The forecast for pepper prices tomorrow, November 11th, suggests they may remain around current levels if international export prices remain stable and purchasing activity does not experience significant fluctuations. Some localities may see slight adjustments if demand increases, but there is insufficient basis to confirm that the market will enter a new, strong upward trend.
* Coffee prices in the Central Highlands region have increased slightly, fluctuating between 85,000 and 85,300 VND/kg.
Accordingly, traders in Lam Dong province are buying coffee at the highest price of 85,300 VND/kg, an increase of 600 VND/kg compared to the previous session. Similarly, the price of coffee in Dak Lak province is 85,000 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to the previous session.
Coffee prices in Gia Lai province are trading at 85,000 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to the previous session.
According to data from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, Vietnam exported approximately 1.8 million tons of coffee in the 2025-2026 crop year, generating about US$8.5 billion in export revenue. This represents a 21% increase in volume and a 1% increase in value compared to the 2024-2025 crop year. This is the highest export value ever recorded for the industry. Of this total, green coffee bean exports reached 1.65 million tons, generating nearly US$7 billion in export revenue, a 21.4% increase in volume but a 1.5% decrease in value compared to the 2024-2025 crop year.
Illustration photo: 24h.com.vn
On the London exchange, robusta coffee futures for January 2027 delivery rose by $66/tonne, or 2.1%, to $3,270/tonne. The March 2027 contract also increased by $50/tonne, or 1.6%, reaching $3,243/tonne.
Robusta coffee’s recovery comes after a period of sharp price declines, and is supported by position adjustments by investors in the futures market.
Conversely, arabica prices on the New York exchange continued to face selling pressure. The December 2026 contract fell 7.2 US cents/pound, or 2.5%, to 280 US cents/pound.
The March 2027 contract fell 1.9% to 271.65 US cents per pound, while the May 2027 contract declined to 267.7 US cents per pound.
According to Reuters, Citi’s commodity research division continues to maintain a cautious view on the outlook for coffee prices, particularly arabica.
This bank forecasts that the price of arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange could fall to $2.50 per pound in the next three months and continue to decline to $2.25 per pound within 12 months.
Compared to the $2.80/pound price of the December 2026 arabica contract last week, these forecasts are lower by approximately 10.7% and 19.6%, respectively.
Citi believes the market is approaching a turning point, with the possibility of another downward correction before the end of 2026.
One of the bases for this assessment is the prospect of increased supply in Brazil and Vietnam. Citi has raised its estimate for Vietnamese coffee production by 2 million bags, while Brazilian coffee exports continue to remain at high levels.
Coffee price forecast for tomorrow, November 11th: The domestic market may continue to trade sideways or experience a slight correction if the supply of new crop coffee increases rapidly. Conversely, the recovery of international robusta prices and purchasing demand from export businesses could support prices. This is a conditional assessment and not yet a confirmed trading price.
