2026.07.03 2026.07.03
GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Once the correction is completed, consider short positions below the level of 1.3467 with a target of 1.3050–1.2936. A sell signal: the correction ends and the price holds below 1.3467. Stop Loss: above 1.3510, Take Profit: 1.3050–1.2936.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3467 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3660–1.3870. A buy signal: the level of 1.3467 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 1.3425, Take Profit: 1.3660–1.3870.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions below 1.3467 with a target of 1.3050–1.2936 once the correction is completed.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above 1.3467 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3660–1.3870.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree (A) of B is developing. Within it, wave 1 of (A) has formed, and a downward correction has been completed as wave 2 of (A). The third wave 3 of (A) appears to be unfolding on the daily chart. Within it, wave i of 3 has formed, and bearish correction ii of 3 is developing. On the H4 time frame, wave (c) of ii is developing. Within it, wave iii of (c) has formed, and a local correction is unfolding as wave iv of (c). If the presumption is correct, GBP/USD will continue to decline to 1.3050–1.2936 after the correction is over. The level of 1.3467 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3660–1.3870.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

2026.07.03 2026.07.03
USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 03.07.26–10.07.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 159.83 with a target of 165.00–170.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 159.83. Stop Loss: below 159.30, Take Profit: 165.00–170.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 159.83 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 158.90–158.00. A sell signal: the level of 159.83 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 160.35, Take Profit: 158.90–158.00.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 159.83 with a target of 165.00–170.00.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 159.83 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 158.90–158.00.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending third wave of larger degree 3 has formed, a downward correction has been completed as the fourth wave 4, and the fifth wave 5 is developing. On the daily chart, the third wave of smaller degree (3) of 5 appears to be developing, with wave 3 of (3) forming as its part. Wave i of 3 has formed on the H4 chart, and wave ii of 3 has presumably been completed as a local correction. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to rise to 165.00–170.00 within wave iii of 3. The level of 159.83 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 158.90–158.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has recovered to around 1.1430 after rebounding from recent multi-month lows, although Citi believes the broader risks remain tilted to the downside.

Citi maintains its three-month EUR/USD forecast at 1.13 and expects the pair to trade around 1.14 over the following six to 12 months, with scope for only a gradual recovery.

The bank warns that EUR/USD “risks a move towards the 1.10 area” if US inflation remains sticky enough to keep markets pricing further Federal Reserve tightening, even if additional rate hikes are ultimately not delivered.

Citi also believes the European Central Bank could become less hawkish as commodity prices decline and the Middle East conflict continues to ease, opening the door to further scaling back of ECB tightening expectations.

Over the medium term, however, the bank expects some mean reversion once the US Dollar rally peaks. Citi argues that markets may eventually unwind overly aggressive Fed expectations, helping to limit further Dollar gains.

The bank also expects higher European defence spending to provide a gradual lift to economic growth, although it cautions that broader structural reforms are progressing only slowly.

While Citi remains cautious on EUR/USD in the near term, it believes a moderation in Dollar strength should allow the pair to stabilise around 1.14 over the longer horizon.

– Written by


John Cameron

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Surges as Weak US Payrolls Sinks USD

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rallied strongly on Thursday after weaker-than-expected US labour market data sparked a broad selloff in the ‘Greenback’.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3360, up around 0.6% compared with Thursday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) came under heavy pressure on Thursday following the release of the latest US non-farm payrolls report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which pointed to a marked slowdown in hiring during June.

The US economy added only 57,000 jobs over the month, significantly below expectations for an increase of roughly 110,000 and representing the weakest payroll gain for several months.

The report also included downward revisions to employment figures for both April and May, reinforcing concerns that conditions in the US labour market are cooling faster than previously believed.

The disappointing data prompted investors to reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, with market pricing for an interest rate increase before the end of the summer falling sharply from around 70% to close to 50% in the aftermath of the release.

The Pound (GBP) also traded with a firmer tone on Thursday as investors became increasingly confident that the UK’s political transition will be smoother than previously feared.

With Andy Burnham expected to become the next Prime Minister without facing a leadership contest, markets have continued to unwind some of the political uncertainty that had weighed on Sterling in recent weeks.

Additional support came from Burnham’s repeated assurances that his government would continue to adhere to Labour’s existing fiscal framework, including commitments to balancing day-to-day public spending through tax receipts and reducing debt as a proportion of GDP over the longer term.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Bailey Comments in Focus

Looking ahead to Friday’s session, attention is likely to centre on a scheduled speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey, which could provide fresh direction for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.

Bailey adopted a relatively hawkish stance earlier in the week, indicating that interest rate cuts are not currently under consideration while also warning that higher energy costs could yet feed through into inflation.

Should he reiterate this message, Sterling may be able to extend its recent gains.

For the US Dollar, however, volatility may be subdued heading into the weekend, with US financial markets closed in observance of the Independence Day holiday, resulting in lighter trading volumes.

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