Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs cut their forecast for oil prices towards the end of the year and 2027 following developments in the peace negotiations between the United States and Iran earlier this week.

Morgan Stanley now sees Brent crude averaging $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2026, and $90 per barrel in the third quarter, Bloomberg reported, citing a note from the bank’s commodity team. Morgan Stanley’s earlier forecast was for an average of $100 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter, while the fourth-quarter price forecast was unchanged.

“Much is still to be negotiated, and key risks remain, but for now, this is a key step towards a de-escalation of the conflict and higher oil exports via the Strait of Hormuz,” the analysts said, expecting a speedy recovery in tanker flows once the strait is reopened.

Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, cut its price forecast for the fourth quarter to $80 per barrel from $90 per barrel, and the 2027 average forecast for Brent crude to $75 per barrel from $80 in earlier forecasts. According to the bank’s commodity analysts, tanker traffic via the Strait of Hormuz would recover fully by the end of July.

Citi is even more bearish than its peers on oil prices. On Monday, the bank cut its oil price forecast to $75 per barrel of Brent in the third quarter of this year, falling further to an average of $70 per barrel in the final quarter. For 2027, Citi expects an average Brent price of $65 per barrel. That’s down from an earlier 2027 forecast of $80 per barrel of Brent.

The international benchmark earlier this week fell to the lowest since early March following the news of a preliminary peace deal between Washington and Tehran. Set to be signed on Friday in Switzerland, the deal will see Iran reopen Hormuz within 30 days.

Brent dropped below $90 per barrel on the news earlier today, extending the loss to trade at $82.51 per barrel at the time of writing. WTI was trading at $80.23 per barrel.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Decision Zone Could Spark Reversal

Despite the potential for a bearish continuation, the next decision zone lies near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior short-term advance at $4,102. If buyers respond positively there, signs of strength could emerge, leading to another bounce to test resistance. That would establish a new higher swing low and thereby create the potential for a double bottom pattern. An advance above this week’s high would trigger the reversal pattern.

Resistance Levels to Watch

However, the first area of resistance is marked by the 20-day moving average, currently near $4,356 and falling, since it was recently confirmed as dynamic resistance. After that, this week’s high at $4,382, which marks a lower swing high on the daily chart, is the next key structure resistance. A rally above that level would then target the 200-day moving average, currently around $4,468.

Breakdown Would Shift Focus Lower

Alternatively, if the current support zone fails, the trend low of $4,023 will come at risk of being broken. Nonetheless, gold would then be approaching another potentially significant support area, highlighted by the recent bullish reaction and the confluence of several technical indicators. Most importantly, a long-term uptrend line currently converges near $4,000. Whether buyers step in there or support fails altogether should help determine if this correction is nearing completion or has further room to extend lower.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

With the rapid development of AI in recent years, it has not only driven demand for chips, servers, and optical modules, but is also reshaping power systems, with copper being one of the most critical metals in power infrastructure.

On the demand side, AI data centers represent the most compelling source of incremental copper demand. AI training and inference place far higher demands on computing power, power supply, and heat dissipation than traditional data centers. Large-scale AI data centers require vast amounts of transformers, switchgears, busbars, cables, UPS, power distribution units, and cooling systems—all of which rely heavily on copper.

According to Wall Streetcn, a 1-gigawatt (GW) AI factory requires 50,000 metric tons of copper. Based on current industry projections of building 15 GW of capacity annually, data centers alone will add 750,000 metric tons of new copper demand each year. More importantly, AI data centers will further drive grid expansion, substation construction, and transmission and distribution line upgrades. This “external power infrastructure” could drive copper demand even more than the copper used inside the data centers themselves.

According to the IEA, global data center electricity consumption is projected to rise to approximately 945 TWh by 2030, roughly doubling current levels. Goldman Sachs also noted that the share of peak summer power demand from US data centers could rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 8.5% in 2027. This indicates that AI data centers are transitioning from marginal power loads into a critical variable shaping grid planning. As long as data centers continue to expand, investment in grid connections, transformers, transmission lines, and distribution equipment must keep pace, creating highly inelastic demand for copper in these segments.

In terms of the scale of copper demand, institutional forecasts are continuously being revised upward. S&P Global expects global copper demand to rise from 28 million metric tons per year in 2025 to 42 million metric tons per year in 2040, an increase of about 50%. Within this, copper demand from data centers is projected to grow from 1.1 million metric tons in 2025 to 2.5 million metric tons in 2040. BHP’s outlook emphasizes long-term trends, projecting that global data center copper usage will rise from around 500,000 metric tons per year today to approximately 3 million metric tons per year by 2050. Trafigura also believes that AI and data center-related demand could add an extra 1 million metric tons of copper demand by 2030. For a global copper market with an annual demand of roughly 20 million to 30 million metric tons, an incremental demand of this scale is enough to significantly alter the supply-demand balance.

Weekly Copper Price Chart, Source: FASTBULL

On the weekly copper price chart, as the highs and lows of the candlestick chart gradually shift upward, it indicates that the overall trend maintains a strong upward momentum. Meanwhile, multiple moving averages in the moving average system maintain a bullish alignment, further confirming that the medium-to-long-term trend for copper prices remains bullish.

Currently, the primary target for copper’s upside is to test the Fibonacci 0.382 extension level of $14,233. If it can break through strongly and hold above this level, further upside room will be unlocked, with the potential to test the Fibonacci 0.5 extension level of $15,000.

Downside support should be noted at 13,400-13,300.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market simultaneously increased in key production areas. The average coffee price was recorded at 89,900 VND/kg, an increase of 400 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices today reached 89,900 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg. Coffee prices in Gia Lai were also recorded at 89,900 VND/kg, an increase of 400 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices reached 89,700 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg and the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

Meanwhile, the old Dak Nong area had the highest coffee price, reaching 9,000 VND/kg, an increase of 400 VND/kg.

Thus, domestic coffee prices currently range from 89,000-9,000 VND/kg. The difference between the region with the highest and lowest prices is 300 VND/kg.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 26,090 VND/USD, an increase of 9 VND.

World coffee prices

World coffee prices fluctuated in opposite directions in the most recent trading session. Robusta prices on the London exchange maintained a slight increase, while Arabica prices on the New York exchange turned down.

On the London exchange, Robusta coffee futures for July 2026 reached 3,685 USD/ton, up 5 USD/ton, equivalent to 0.14%. During the session, this contract at one point increased to 3,736 USD/ton.

Robusta futures for September 2026 reached 3,629 USD/ton, up 7 USD/ton, equivalent to 0.19%. For November 2026, it reached 3,587 USD/ton, up 13 USD/ton, equivalent to 0.36%.

For further terms, Robusta in January 2027 reached 3,545 USD/ton, an increase of 20 USD/ton; the March 2027 term also increased by 20 USD/ton, to 3,514 USD/ton.

On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures for July 2026 fell 2.75 US cents/lb, or 0.99%, to 275.10 US cents/lb.

Arabica futures for September 2026 fell 4.10 US cents/lb, equivalent to 1.51%, to 267.80 US cents/lb. December 2026 futures fell 5.25 US cents/lb, to 257.90 US cents/lb.

The March and May 2027 terms decreased by 5.45 US cents/lb and 5.25 US cents/lb respectively, to 254.40 US cents/lb and 254.55 US cents/lb.

Notably, Arabica for July 2026 futures once increased to 285.75 US cents/lb in the session but then reversed to decrease. This development shows that profit-taking pressure appeared after the strong increase in coffee prices in previous sessions.

Coffee price assessment

World coffee prices have increased sharply in the past week and at times reached a 5-week high. However, the market reversed from a high in the session when the USD index increased sharply, promoting the liquidation of buying positions in the coffee market.

The rising USD often puts pressure on commodity prices valued in this currency, making purchasing costs more expensive for users of other currencies. This impact is more evident with Arabica, as contracts on the New York exchange simultaneously fell.

Weather in Brazil is still an important factor supporting coffee prices. Prolonged rain in some coffee growing areas raises concerns about slow harvest progress, and may affect drying and grain quality.

However, the prospect of drier weather in key coffee growing areas of Brazil next week has somewhat reduced concerns about harvesting activities, causing coffee prices to narrow their gains in the session.

Coffee inventory on the ICE exchange is also sending mixed signals. Arabica inventory decreased to 394.267 bags, the lowest level in more than 2 years, thereby continuing to support prices.

Conversely, Robusta inventory has increased to 4,032 lots, the highest level in more than 2 months. The increase in the amount of Robusta coffee put into the ICE standard warehouse system may limit the increase of this item.

El Niño risk is also continuing to be monitored by the market. According to NOAA, El Niño is present and is forecast to strengthen in the North hemisphere winter of 2026-2027. This phenomenon may change rainfall in coffee producing regions in South America and Asia.

However, the impact of El Niño on coffee trees also depends on the timing and level of weather changes in each region. The market is particularly interested in rainfall in Brazil in September and October, the period when coffee trees usually enter the flowering season.

On the side of putting pressure on prices, USDA/FAS forecasts that Brazil’s coffee production in the 2026/27 crop year may reach a record level of 71.9 million bags, an increase of about 14% compared to the previous crop year. Rabobank also raised its global Arabica surplus forecast from 7 million to 9.5 million bags.

Robusta supply from our country continues to be a noteworthy factor in the market. According to data from the Ministry of Finance, our country’s coffee exports in the first 5 months of 2026 reached 922,000 tons, an increase of 7.9% compared to the same period.

In general, coffee prices are being interspersedly affected. Low Arabica inventories, Brazilian weather risks and El Niño support prices; while the strong USD, the prospect of a large crop in Brazil and increased Vietnamese supply may limit the upward momentum.

Brent crude oil remains under limited and cautious gains during recent intraday trading, recovering part of its previous losses. The price has also eased its oversold conditions on relative strength indicators, which have now moved into overbought territory compared with price action. This suggests the beginning of a negative divergence, adding further downside pressure, especially with the indicators starting to show a bearish crossover.

Meanwhile, the price continues to face negative pressure from trading below the EMA50, while the short-term bearish trend remains dominant, limiting the chances of a sustained recovery.