Domestic coffee prices today

The domestic coffee market this morning, May 1, recorded a gloomy state as purchasing prices continued to fall, officially hitting the lowest level in a week.

According to surveys in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the price of raw coffee beans has simultaneously decreased, pushing the regional average to the threshold of 87,700 VND/kg.

In Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices are currently trading at 87,800 VND/kg.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai localities both maintained stable prices at 87,600 VND/kg, while the Lam Dong area listed at the lowest level of 87,100 VND/kg.

Contrary to the decline of coffee, pepper prices still maintained their recovery when standing firm at 143,000 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

On world exchanges, red color covered brilliantly in the session closing early this morning with very deep declines.

The price of Arabica for July delivery on the New York exchange “evaporated” 5.15 cents, equivalent to 1.77%, closing at 294.90 cents/lb.

Similarly, the London exchange also witnessed the price of Robusta for July delivery plummet by 81 USD, equivalent to 2.35%, falling to 3,361 USD/ton.

This is the most negative adjustment in many recent sessions, reflecting investors’ concerns about the prospect of abundant supply from leading manufacturing powers in the world.

The main reason for this terrible drop is that forecasts of a “super-bumper” crop in Brazil are gradually becoming apparent. The Coffee Transaction Institute has just released an estimated figure that Brazil’s 2026/27 crop output will increase by 12% compared to the previous year, reaching about 71.4 million bags.

Even, Marex Group and StoneX have made bolder forecasts with figures up to nearly 76 million bags. This pressure becomes even heavier when StoneX forecasts that the global coffee surplus in 2026 will expand to 10 million bags, the highest level in the past 6 years. In Vietnam, the export growth in Q1 of 14% reaching 585,000 tons also contributed to easing concerns about short-term supply shortages in the international market.

Although the market is under great downward pressure, there are still some supporting factors hindering the free fall. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to geopolitical tensions is still putting pressure on global shipping, insurance and fertilizer costs.

In addition, coffee inventories on both ICE exchanges are still anchored at a record low, which is an important technical support to help prices not break deeper support levels. It is forecasted that in the coming days, domestic coffee prices will continue to fluctuate and accumulate around the 86,500 – 88,500 VND/kg range. Farmers need to be very alert to make appropriate trading decisions, avoiding panic in the context of speculative funds being aggressively liquidating positions.

2026.05.01 2026.05.01
WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 01.05.26–08.05.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 91.50 with a target of 115.70–126.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 91.50. Stop Loss: below 89.50, Take Profit: 115.70–126.00.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 91.50 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00. A sell signal: the level of 91.50 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 93.50, Take Profit: 78.70–65.00.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 91.50 with a target of 115.70–126.00.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 91.50 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.70–65.00.

Analysis

A descending correction appears to have formed as the second wave of larger degree (2) on the weekly chart, with wave C of (2) completed as its part. On the daily timeframe, the ascending third wave (3) has started unfolding, with the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) still developing as its part. On the H4 chart, wave iii of 1 has likely formed, a local correction iv of 1 has been completed, and wave v of 1 continues to unfold. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 115.70–126.00. The level of 91.50 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue to decline to the levels of 78.70–65.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode

There is a study by McKinsey that shows commodities spent the vast majority of their time in mean-reverting or range-bound states. It claims that commodities tend to trend about 20 to 30% of the time and trade sideways about 70 to 80%.

Studies by organizations like the World Gold Council show that gold’s volatility isn’t evenly distributed. It often enters “sleep” cycles where it moves sideways for years, followed by “vertical” cycles.

Last year, gold outperformed the S&P 500 significantly during months of high geopolitical stress, while moving sideways during risk-on periods. This year, it broke out of the long-term consolidation phase. That may have been the 30% trending phase. So brace yourself because we may be in the consolidation phase, but that doesn’t mean it’s untradeable.

Since the spike bottom on March 23 established support at $4,099.12 on the 200-day MA, I think that sends a signal that this indicator is support. Since it was rejected by the 50-day MA at $4,891.54 on April 17, we can say that it is resistance.

The price action this week shows it can still find support inside the moving averages. The current two-day rally may be telling us that we are in buy-the-dip mode. The recent reaction to the 50-day MA certainly told us that traders are selling rallies.

Once again, the market is giving you two choices: be active and take out offers, hoping for the breakout, or be passive and wait for the dip into value areas. I understand that traders like the “set it and forget it” trade, but that’s not happening now.

What I’m Watching

The way I see it, gold is still in sell-the-rally mode. Support is holding but buyers are not committing at these levels. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield and Fed rate expectations are the two levers that will decide this. Until one of them breaks in gold’s favor, this market grinds lower or goes nowhere. That is where we are.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.