April 16, 2025 – Written by James Fuller

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Forecast: “GBP to Underperform EUR as Dollar Weakens”

The Pound to Euro exchange rate has stalled a fresh round of demand for safe-haven assets.

GBPEUR was quoted at 1.16747 as risk conditions dominated the Pound Sterling on Wednesday, even though the latest UK inflation data did nudge the currency lower.

Market confidence dipped again following the warning from Nvidia that it faced $5.5bn in additional costs due to US Administration export controls to China on H20 chips.

Equities came under renewed pressure while gold surged to a fresh record high and the Euro secured fresh backing.

In this environment of US-China trade-war fears, the Pound to Euro dipped to lows around 1.1660.

There was, however, a brief recovery to near 1.1700 after China stated that it is open to talks if Trump shows respect and names a point person.

Inevitably, very choppy trading will continue in the short term.

ING commented; “The new EUR/GBP trading range could be something like 0.8500-0.8750 for the second quarter.” This would be a 1.1430 – 1.1765 GBP/EUR range.

According to MUFG; “We expect GBP to continue to underperform EUR as the dollar weakens but quicker than expected progress on a US-UK trade deal would help to quickly reduce that underperformance.”

Rabobank expects underlying tensions will continue; “even if tariff heat is dialled up and down, they are unlikely to disappear and other economic statecraft tools such as subsidies, export controls, and the politicised use of capital flows and FX policy are likely to join them.”

The Euro area recorded a current account surplus of EUR34bn for February which took the 12-month total to EUR411bn and 2.7% of GDP compared with EUR291bn last year (2.0% of GDP).

The strong balance of payments position will provide underlying Euro support, especially when risk appetite deteriorates.

The headline UK inflation rate declined to 2.6% for March from 2.8% previously and slightly below consensus forecasts of 2.7%.

The core rate edged lower to 3.4% from 3.5% and in line with market expectations.

The largest downward contributions came from recreation and culture, together with fuel, offset to some extent by higher clothing prices.

The CPI goods inflation rate declined to 0.6% from 0.8% while the services sector rate retreated to 4.7% from 5.0%.

MUFG commented; “While this is good news for the BoE and makes a 25bp rate cut a near certainty on 8th May, inflation is set to pick up in Q2 given the NICs tax increase on employers, the minimum wage increase and the rise in the utility energy price cap. All of these will see the headline CPI advance potentially to levels around 4.0%.”

The bank still sees a careful and gradual approach to monetary policy as justified.

As far as the ECB is concerned, there are strong expectations of a further 25 basis-point ECB rate cut at Thursday’s council meeting.

Guidance from the bank will be watched closely.

According to Danske Bank; “We expect Lagarde to highlight the downside risks to growth from the trade war while abstaining from giving any clear guidance on future rate decisions.

It added; “Going forward, we expect the ECB to deliver three 25bp cuts at the upcoming meetings, bringing the deposit rate to 1.50% by September 2025.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

April 16, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar LIVE: 7th Consecutive Daily GBP Gain, “Momentum Remains Bullish”

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate rallied on Wednesday, striking a new multi-month high at 1.32679 amid mounting uncertainty over US trade policy.

According to FX strategists at Scotiabank, “GBPUSD’s gains have extended for a seventh consecutive session and momentum remains bullish with an RSI near the overbought threshold at 70.”

Looking ahead, with notable UK and US economic data in short supply, GBP/USD movement is likely to be driven by global sentiment in the second half of the week.

If investor confidence continues to deteriorate on the back of Trump’s erratic approach to trade policy, the US Dollar may remain under pressure.

However, any shift towards risk-off sentiment could allow the ‘Greenback’ to mount a recovery against the Pound.

Analysts at Scotiabank suggest 1.34 is in the crosshairs for near-term GBPUSD buyers.

“We look to near-term resistance around 1.33, and beyond that, the September high around 1.34. Near-term support is expected between 1.3220 and 1.32,” says Eric Theoret, FX Strategist at Scotiabank.

The US Dollar struggled to find its footing on Wednesday as investor concerns surrounding Washington’s trade strategy continued to mount.

Conflicting signals from President Trump over new tariffs on Chinese electronics has left markets rattled. Initial suggestions that products like smartphones would be exempt were quickly contradicted by Trump himself, who posted on social media that no such exemptions would be made.

He also hinted at launching a fresh investigation into the electronics supply chain — a move that further deepened uncertainty around US trade policy.

As doubts grow over the coherence of Trump’s economic agenda, investors are pulling back from the US Dollar, with fears of a recession now fuelling speculation of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming months.

The Pound (GBP) trended broadly lower on Wednesday, following the release of weaker-than-expected UK inflation figures.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed headline inflation fell from 2.8% to 2.6% in March, missing expectations for a more modest decline.

Sterling slid as the weaker-than-expected inflation print was seen as all but confirming the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in May, with GBP investors also pricing up to two more cuts in the second half of 2025.

This is despite expectations that UK inflation will quickly accelerate again in the coming months amid global trade tensions and rising energy prices.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on April 16, 2025

• During trading on Thursday, we have seen the US dollar go back and forth against the Japanese yen as we try to sort out whether or not the ¥143 level will offer enough support to keep this market afloat.
• All things being equal, this is a market that is going to continue to be bearish from a longer-term perspective, looking back at the least 3 months or so.

As the tariff war continues, it’s interesting to see that the Japanese yen has been used as a safety currency over the US dollar, as the US bond market has been sold off quite viciously. That being said, I think there is a part of the story that people are not cognizant of. Most traders look at the US dollar falling and simply assume that it is some type of political decision. Reality is that bonds are being sold off in the United States in order to raise cash. After all, one of the most common places to store cash for large corporations and sovereign wealth funds would be the US Treasury market, so if you found yourself in a situation where you may need to hoard cash and become much more liquid, you would sell your bonds.

Technical Analysis

That being said, the end result is somewhat the same, but I think this is much more temporary than people realize. After all, the Federal Reserve looks likely to remain somewhat stubborn as far as interest rate cuts are concerned, and at the same time, you have the Japanese unlikely to do anything too aggressive. If global trade does in fact slow down, Japan is particularly vulnerable to this, and you may see the interest rate differential get interesting yet again. After all, you do get paid to hang on to this pair for the end of day swap.

At this point, I think if the market can close above the ¥145 level on a daily candlestick, then you may have more of a correction ahead. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the ¥142 level, then I think we would drop down to the ¥140 level.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.