The British pound has strengthened against the US dollar, with the GBP/USD pair moving decisively beyond the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) amid reports of a potential US-Iran diplomatic agreement. The development has injected fresh optimism into currency markets, particularly for risk-sensitive pairs like cable.
US-Iran Deal Talks Boost Risk Appetite
Reports emerging from diplomatic channels indicate that the United States and Iran are nearing a framework agreement on nuclear and regional security issues. While details remain unconfirmed, market participants have interpreted the progress as a positive step toward de-escalation in the Middle East, reducing geopolitical risk premiums that have weighed on the dollar in recent sessions.
The potential deal has triggered a shift in sentiment, with traders reducing safe-haven allocations to the greenback. This has provided a tailwind for the pound, which had been trading in a narrow range below the 20-day EMA for much of the past week.
Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
The break above the 20-day EMA, currently near 1.2650, signals a short-term bullish shift in momentum. The pair is now testing resistance around the 1.2700 psychological level, a zone that has capped upside attempts in recent weeks.
If the pound sustains its advance, the next key target lies at the 50-day EMA near 1.2780. A decisive close above this level would open the door to the 1.2850 region, where the 100-day EMA converges with prior price congestion.
On the downside, the 20-day EMA now serves as initial support, with a break below exposing the 1.2600 handle and the recent swing low near 1.2550.
Market Implications for Traders
The GBP/USD move reflects a broader recalibration of currency markets as geopolitical risks recede. For traders, the key question is whether the US-Iran developments represent a sustainable catalyst or a temporary reprieve. The dollar’s trajectory will also depend on upcoming US economic data, including non-farm payrolls and inflation figures, which could reinforce or reverse the current trend.
The pound’s outlook remains tied to Bank of England policy expectations. With UK inflation still above target, markets are pricing in a slower pace of rate cuts relative to the Federal Reserve, which has provided underlying support for sterling.
Conclusion
The GBP/USD pair’s advance beyond the 20-day EMA is a technically significant move, supported by improving sentiment around US-Iran diplomatic efforts. While the short-term bias has turned bullish, traders should watch for confirmation at key resistance levels and remain attentive to evolving geopolitical and economic data. The next few sessions will be critical in determining whether this breakout has lasting momentum.
FAQs
Q1: What is the 20-day EMA and why is it important for GBP/USD? The 20-day exponential moving average is a short-term technical indicator that smooths price data to identify trend direction. A move above it often signals bullish momentum and is closely watched by forex traders for entry and exit signals.
Q2: How does a US-Iran deal affect the GBP/USD exchange rate? A US-Iran agreement can reduce geopolitical risk, which tends to weaken the safe-haven US dollar and boost risk-sensitive currencies like the British pound. Improved sentiment and reduced uncertainty often lead to capital flows away from the dollar.
Q3: What are the key resistance and support levels for GBP/USD? Key resistance is at 1.2700 (psychological level) and 1.2780 (50-day EMA). Key support is at 1.2650 (20-day EMA) and 1.2600 (round number), with a break below exposing the 1.2550 swing low.
Coffee prices today in the domestic market recorded a slight downward trend in some key localities. According to records, the average coffee price reached 89,300 VND/kg, down 300 VND/kg compared to the previous session.
In Dak Lak, coffee prices were recorded at 89,300 VND/kg, down 200 VND/kg. Gia Lai also had a price of 89,300 VND/kg, down 200 VND/kg.
In Lam Dong, coffee prices today reached 89,000 VND/kg, not recording changes compared to the previous session. Meanwhile, the old Dak Nong area was recorded at 89,300 VND/kg, down 400 VND/kg.
Thus, domestic coffee prices currently fluctuate around 89,000-89,300 VND/kg. The highest price in the survey group is 89,300 VND/kg in Dak Lak, Gia Lai and the old Dak Nong area.
The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank is recorded at 26,073 VND/USD.
World coffee prices
On the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures in July 2026 reached 3,607 USD/ton, an increase of 13 USD/ton, equivalent to 0.36%. The term for September 2026 reached 3,529 USD/ton, an increase of 4 USD/ton, equivalent to 0.11%.
Further terms also increased slightly. Robusta November 2026 term reached 3,466 USD/ton, up 14 USD/ton; January 2027 term reached 3,409 USD/ton, up 19 USD/ton; March 2027 term reached 3,375 USD/ton, up 21 USD/ton.
On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices increased more strongly than Robusta. July 2026 futures reached 262.95 US cents/lb, up 5.75 cents/lb, equivalent to 2.24%. September 2026 futures reached 259.20 US cents/lb, up 5.80 cents/lb, equivalent to 2.29%.
In distant terms, Arabica in December 2026 reached 251.75 US cents/lb, an increase of 5.30 cents/lb; March 2027 futures reached 249.15 US cents/lb, an increase of 4.95 cents/lb; May 2027 futures reached 249.10 US cents/lb, an increase of 4.95 cents/lb.
This development shows that world coffee prices continue to maintain the recovery momentum, although domestic coffee prices have not reflected the same direction in today’s session.
Coffee price assessment
According to Barchart, world coffee prices continued to rise in the first session of the week, with Arabica reaching a 2-week high and Robusta reaching a 5-week high. The main driver came from concerns that prolonged rain in Brazil could slow down coffee harvest progress.
Weather factors in Brazil are being closely monitored by the market. Light to heavy rain in coffee growing areas can disrupt harvesting and drying operations and affect the quality of seeds. This is the reason for supporting coffee prices in the short term, especially for Arabica.
Coffee inventory on the ICE exchange decreasing in recent months is also a factor supporting prices. Arabica inventory on the ICE fell to its lowest level in more than 6 months last weekend. Robusta inventory also touched a 2-year low in May and is still in the low zone.
However, the coffee market still faces pressure factors. USDA/FAS forecasts that Brazil’s coffee output in the 2026/27 crop year may reach 71.9 million bags, an increase of about 14% over the same period. Rabobank also raised its global Arabica surplus forecast to 9.5 million bags, higher than the previous level of 7 million bags.
On the Robusta side, increased Vietnamese coffee exports are a factor that can limit price increases. According to data from the Customs Department (Ministry of Finance), Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 5 months of 2026 reached 922,000 tons, an increase of 7.9% compared to the same period.
In general, world coffee prices are being supported by Brazilian weather risks, low inventories and concerns that El Niño may affect the flowering cycle in the near future. However, the prospect of large supply from Brazil and Robusta exports from Vietnam are still factors that can curb the increase in coffee prices.
The US dollar initially pulled back just a touch during the trading session here on Monday but turned around to show signs of life. The 160-yen level is an area that I think a lot of people will be watching very closely, as it’s a large psychologically significant level, but it’s also the beginning of significant resistance, I think that runs to about the 160.60-yen level.
If we can break above there, then it’s likely that the market goes even higher, as it is a smashing of the 1990 swing high. If we do fall from here, then I think there’s plenty of support near the 50-day EMA. So, I look at this as a buy on the dip type of market.
Interest Rate Differentials and Long-Term Targets
With that being said, I’m paying close attention to the 10-year yield. It did drop a little bit during the session, hinging on the idea of peace breaking out in the Middle East. It’s really not a new peace deal, I think we’re talking about, I think it is a situation where we are looking at a longer-term ceasefire. Who knows what it really turns into, and I would also point out that, unfortunately, the demands and the little bits that are being released by the Iranians now suggest things that I’d be really surprised if the Americans went along with.
Regardless, the interest rate differential in this pair continues to favor the US dollar, and I do think that we will eventually break out, kicking off a longer-term buy-and-hold type of market. The measured move from the rounding bottom that started in 1990 is 224-yen.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
Overall Trend: Bearish in the medium term with short-term rebound attempts.
Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1525 – 1.1470 – 1.1400
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1640 – 1.1700 – 1.1770
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1480 with a target of 1.1650 and a stop-loss at 1.1400
Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1670 with a target of 1.1480 and a stop-loss at 1.1760
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today
Technically, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to move near important resistance levels following a strong bearish wave over the past few weeks. The current performance reflects a state of hesitation among traders amid an absence of strong catalysts to push the price to break through new levels.
According to top trading platforms, the currency pair stabilized near the 1.1600 resistance level. Currently, short-term indicators show bullish rebound attempts, but the general trend still leans downward. However, continued trading below key resistances could prompt some profit-taking and a bearish correction before resuming the main trend.
The Bullish Scenario
If buyers succeed in pushing prices above the 1.1600 resistance, the rally could extend towards 1.1650 and then 1.1700, with a clear improvement in positive momentum.
The Bearish Scenario
If the US dollar strengthens or the Federal Reserve issues hawkish statements, the pair could decline towards the 1.1500 support level, followed by 1.1450 and then 1.1380.
Currently, the technical indicators remain bearish. The most prominent indicators on the daily timeframe are the 14-day RSI, the MACD, and the moving averages. Breaking the 1.1700 resistance level is crucial for a shift to a bullish trend in the near term. The EUR/USD pair will be affected today by new comments from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde at 10:15 AM Egypt time. This will be followed by the release of industrial production figures for the Eurozone and the United States. It’s worth noting that the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points, which provided temporary support to the euro.
At that time, the Euro found initial support from this move, as policymakers indicated that monetary policy tightening remains firmly on the table, boosting expectations for a potential rate hike again in July.
Factors Affecting the Pair’s Movement Today
The EUR/USD pair’s movements today will be influenced by several key factors, most notably:
Statements from ECB policymakers.
Economic data from the Eurozone and the United States.
US dollar movements related to interest rate expectations.
Continued geopolitical uncertainty in global markets.
Trading Advice:
It is recommended that traders monitor price action at the 1.1600 and 1.1700 resistance levels, while maintaining strict risk management given the ongoing market uncertainty.
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.
The pair continues to remain positioned within a positive trend so far, supported by the formation of the 213.50 level as the first key support. This has led to renewed attempts to reach the resistance near 215.50, in an effort to find a breakout path to resume the upward movement in the short to medium term trading.
Based on the above, we will remain waiting for the price to achieve the required breakout, which would increase the likelihood of targeting 216.10 and 216.65 initially. With continued positive factors, the movement could extend toward 217.50, which represents the first main target of the upward trend.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.00 and 216.10
Copper price activated since this morning’s trading to the positive signals from the main indicators, maintaining its position above the stable support level at $6.1000, as we notice the beginning of forming new upward waves that have settled it near $6.5000.
We reiterate that confirmation of the price’s readiness to resume the upward momentum will remain valid unless the resistance level at $6.6000 is broken. In that case, the price may shift into new sideways trading. However, a successful breakout and stability above this resistance would make it easier for the price to reach additional targets, which may start at $6.7800 and $6.9200.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.3500 and $6.6000
The EUR/GBP exchange rate has moved sideways in the past few days as traders focus on the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions. It was trading at 0.8627, down from last year’s high of 0.8865. It has formed two major chart patterns, pointing to more downside.
The daily chart shows that the EUR to GBP exchange rate has pulled back in the past few months. It has retreated from a high of 0.8865 in November last year to 0.8628.
A closer look shows that the pair has found substantial support at 0.8615, its lowest level on February 5, March 19, and May 25. This support is part of the descending triangle pattern, whose upper side connects the highest swings in November last year and February and May this year. The descending triangle is a common continuation sign in technical analysis
The pair has also formed a small head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish sign. Also, it also remained below the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA).
Therefore, the pair will likely have a strong bearish breakout in the near term, potentially to the key support at 0.8545, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.
EUR/USD chart | Source: TradingView
The EUR/GBP pair has come under pressure in the past few days as investors waited for the upcoming ECB interest rate decision. Economists polled by Reuters expect Christine Lagarde and her team to deliver the first interest rate hike of the year.
If this happens, the bank will hike rates by 0.25% to 2.40% and the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. It will be the first time that the bank has hiked interest rates since September 2023. Also, it will be a big reversal after the bank delivered several interest rate cuts last year.
The bank’s rate hike will come as it combats the elevated inflation, which has continued rising in the past few months. Data shows that the headline CPI rose to 3.2% in May from 3.0% in the previous month. It has jumped sharply from the year-to-date low of 1.7%. Anal
The next key catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged in its meeting next week.
The most recent data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index retreated to 2.8% in April, helped by the ongoing government actions. Still, Polymarket traders are predicting that the bank will hike interest rates in the coming months as inflation ticks up again.
WTI crude
oil traded at $80.73 per barrel on Monday, June 15, 2026, down almost 5% from
Friday’s $84.88 close, after the United States and Iran reached an interim deal
to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and drain the war premium from the oil market.
Brent fell more than 4% to below $84, a fresh three-month low.
The deal,
set to be signed June 19 in Switzerland, would restart a waterway that once
carried about a fifth of global oil supply. Traders now weigh a slow physical
recovery against a 60-day window of US-Iran nuclear talks that could still
collapse.
In this
article I am showing why oil prices are falling down today, how low can oil go,
and what are the newest oil price predictions from big banks.
Follow
me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk
That break
ejects WTI from the choppy consolidation it has held since March, a range
without clean edges that traded between roughly $85 to $88 on the floor and
$110 to $115 on the ceiling.
WTI oil technical analysis: the test of the 200 EMA. Source: Tradingview.com
The
boundaries are not random. The upper zone aligns with the 2022 highs I flagged when Brent
topped $115, when
WTI briefly ran toward $125 before stalling; this cycle’s war spike topped out
near $120. The lower edge near $85 to $88 matches the April and July 2024
peaks. With that floor broken, the old support now flips to resistance.
The 200 EMA
read carries weight because it sits near $80, almost to the pip on the January
2025 highs, stacked on the round number and the June 2025 highs into one dense
support shelf.
In 15-plus
years as a trader and analyst, 10 of them at FinanceMagnates.com, I have rarely
seen technical levels matter less than they do in this oil market. My prior
calls are archived on my analyst page, from the $112 April peak down to today’s reversal. Price is
being written by the US, Iran and Trump, not by moving averages.
For now the
daily trend is still up. The consolidation has broken, but the 200 EMA is
printing a first demand reaction. My question is simple: does a bounce reclaim
the range, or does the former floor, now resistance, cap the buyers before a
stronger charge?
Level
Type
Notes
$110 to $120
Resistance
2022
highs; this cycle’s war spike near $120
$85 to $88
Resistance (flipped)
Old
consolidation floor; April and July 2024 peaks
$80.73
Spot / 200 EMA
Monday,
June 15, 2026; first touch in 4+ months
$80
Support
Round
level; June 2025 highs; January 2025 highs
$72
Support
April 2025 reference level
Why Oil Is Falling Today?
Oil dropped
after Washington and Tehran agreed to halt a war that erupted in late February,
when US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program shut the Strait of Hormuz in early
March.
Officials
will meet in Switzerland on June 19 to sign the text, which neither side has
released, according to Bloomberg reporting. President Donald Trump said the
strait would reopen once mines are cleared from the waterway.
Before the
blockade, the strait handled roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply in a
market of more than 100 million barrels a day. Nearly 600 vessels remain stuck
in the Persian Gulf awaiting departure, data firm Kpler told Bloomberg.
The unwind
already shows in the futures curve: Brent’s prompt spread narrowed to less than
$1 a barrel in backwardation, down from more than $12 in April.
Goldman
Sachs added a counterintuitive twist on June 12. The bank kept its Q4 2026
Brent forecast at $90, holding to near-term geopolitical risk, while cutting
its 2027 average to $80, down $5, according to Reuters reporting. The message
is that the current war premium does not become a lasting price surge.
Goldman
pointed to stronger supply from the US, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela and the UAE,
alongside weaker demand tied partly to China’s shift to electric vehicles. The
bank assumes just over 10% of the demand lost during the shock sticks.
It stops
short of calling a collapse, because the physical market is still tight, the
same oversupply-versus-scarcity tension I covered when oil slipped after the Maduro
capture.
US crude
inventories underline that tightness. Stockpiles fell 7.2 million barrels to
426.5 million in the latest week, nearly 5% below the five-year average, while
distillates sat 13% below normal, per Investing data. Oil trading volumes climbed through Q1 as volatility
intensified.
The 2027
downgrade rests on:
Non-OPEC supply growth from the US, Brazil, Guyana,
Venezuela and the UAE
Structural demand loss, with Goldman assuming over
10% of the shock-driven drop persists
China EV penetration eroding gasoline and diesel
demand
Still-tight inventories, which keep Goldman from
forecasting a deeper slide
How Low Can Oil Go? Oil
Price Predictions
How low oil
can go depends on whether the Hormuz reopening holds. Goldman’s $90 Q4 2026
Brent call still bakes in a war premium that is actively draining, so I read it
as a ceiling rather than a base if the deal sticks. Its $80 cut for 2027
matches my own bias: once Gulf barrels return, the structural surplus reasserts
and rallies get sold.
The
official forecasters agree on direction. The EIA’s June outlook sees Brent
easing to $89 in Q4 2026 and averaging $79 in 2027, assuming Hormuz reopens in
the third quarter. JPMorgan is more bearish at $75 for 2027, the lowest of the
majors, and that number looks reasonable to me if demand stays soft and US
output holds near record highs.
How low can WTI crude oil go according to my technical analysis? Source: Tradingview.com
On my
chart, the first WTI support is the $80 shelf, where the 200 EMA, the June 2025
highs and the round number converge. Lose it, and $72 from April 2025 opens up.
The bull case is a deal collapse: mines, insurance friction or a failed nuclear
track snap the premium back and drive WTI into the $110 to $120 consolidation
again.
Source
Target
Notes
Goldman Sachs
Brent $90
Q4 2026,
kept; near-term war premium
Goldman Sachs
Brent $80
2027
average, cut $5 on supply growth
EIA (June STEO)
Brent $89 / $79
Q4 2026 / 2027; Hormuz reopens Q3
JPMorgan
Brent $75
2027 average; deepest major call
My TA
WTI $80, then $72
200 EMA
shelf, then April 2025 level
My TA (bull)
WTI $110 to $120
If deal
collapses, back into consolidation
Bull
case (deal fails, premium returns):
Mine-clearing or insurance
friction delays Hormuz transits past June 19
Iran-Oman control of the strait
reignites supply fears
Nuclear talks collapse inside
the 60-day window, risking renewed strikes
Bear
case (deal holds, surplus returns):
Gulf shut-ins restart, adding
back more than 10 million barrels per day of disrupted output
Non-OPEC supply from the US,
Brazil and Guyana keeps building
China EV demand and record US
production cap any rebound
FAQ, OIL Price Analysis
Why is oil falling today?
WTI crude
fell almost 5% to $80.73 on June 15, 2026, and Brent dropped below $84 after
the US and Iran agreed to an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The
waterway carried about a fifth of global oil supply before the war, so its
reopening drains the geopolitical premium that had lifted crude since late
February.
How low can oil prices go?
My
technical analysis puts the first WTI support at the $80 shelf, where the
200-day EMA and June 2025 highs converge. A break below it opens $72, the April
2025 level. The EIA sees Brent averaging $79 in 2027, while JPMorgan models
$75, so a move into the $70s is credible if the deal holds.
What is the Goldman Sachs
oil price forecast for 2027?
Goldman
Sachs cut its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80 a barrel on June 12, 2026, a
$5 reduction. The bank kept its Q4 2026 Brent call at $90 but expects stronger
supply from the US, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela and the UAE, plus weaker Chinese
demand, to weigh on prices next year.
When will the Strait of
Hormuz reopen?
The US and
Iran are due to sign their interim deal on June 19, 2026, in Switzerland, after
which the strait is set to reopen once mines are cleared. The EIA assumes
shipments resume in the third quarter of 2026, with traffic taking until early
2027 to return to pre-conflict levels.
Is WTI crude still in an
uptrend?
Yes, for
now. WTI broke its three-month consolidation on June 15, 2026, but the daily
trend remains up while the 200-day EMA near $80 holds. My read hinges on
whether a bounce reclaims the old range or the former floor at $85 to $88, now
resistance, caps the rebound.
WTI crude
oil traded at $80.73 per barrel on Monday, June 15, 2026, down almost 5% from
Friday’s $84.88 close, after the United States and Iran reached an interim deal
to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and drain the war premium from the oil market.
Brent fell more than 4% to below $84, a fresh three-month low.
The deal,
set to be signed June 19 in Switzerland, would restart a waterway that once
carried about a fifth of global oil supply. Traders now weigh a slow physical
recovery against a 60-day window of US-Iran nuclear talks that could still
collapse.
In this
article I am showing why oil prices are falling down today, how low can oil go,
and what are the newest oil price predictions from big banks.
Follow
me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk
That break
ejects WTI from the choppy consolidation it has held since March, a range
without clean edges that traded between roughly $85 to $88 on the floor and
$110 to $115 on the ceiling.
WTI oil technical analysis: the test of the 200 EMA. Source: Tradingview.com
The
boundaries are not random. The upper zone aligns with the 2022 highs I flagged when Brent
topped $115, when
WTI briefly ran toward $125 before stalling; this cycle’s war spike topped out
near $120. The lower edge near $85 to $88 matches the April and July 2024
peaks. With that floor broken, the old support now flips to resistance.
The 200 EMA
read carries weight because it sits near $80, almost to the pip on the January
2025 highs, stacked on the round number and the June 2025 highs into one dense
support shelf.
In 15-plus
years as a trader and analyst, 10 of them at FinanceMagnates.com, I have rarely
seen technical levels matter less than they do in this oil market. My prior
calls are archived on my analyst page, from the $112 April peak down to today’s reversal. Price is
being written by the US, Iran and Trump, not by moving averages.
For now the
daily trend is still up. The consolidation has broken, but the 200 EMA is
printing a first demand reaction. My question is simple: does a bounce reclaim
the range, or does the former floor, now resistance, cap the buyers before a
stronger charge?
Level
Type
Notes
$110 to $120
Resistance
2022
highs; this cycle’s war spike near $120
$85 to $88
Resistance (flipped)
Old
consolidation floor; April and July 2024 peaks
$80.73
Spot / 200 EMA
Monday,
June 15, 2026; first touch in 4+ months
$80
Support
Round
level; June 2025 highs; January 2025 highs
$72
Support
April 2025 reference level
Why Oil Is Falling Today?
Oil dropped
after Washington and Tehran agreed to halt a war that erupted in late February,
when US and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program shut the Strait of Hormuz in early
March.
Officials
will meet in Switzerland on June 19 to sign the text, which neither side has
released, according to Bloomberg reporting. President Donald Trump said the
strait would reopen once mines are cleared from the waterway.
Before the
blockade, the strait handled roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply in a
market of more than 100 million barrels a day. Nearly 600 vessels remain stuck
in the Persian Gulf awaiting departure, data firm Kpler told Bloomberg.
The unwind
already shows in the futures curve: Brent’s prompt spread narrowed to less than
$1 a barrel in backwardation, down from more than $12 in April.
Goldman
Sachs added a counterintuitive twist on June 12. The bank kept its Q4 2026
Brent forecast at $90, holding to near-term geopolitical risk, while cutting
its 2027 average to $80, down $5, according to Reuters reporting. The message
is that the current war premium does not become a lasting price surge.
Goldman
pointed to stronger supply from the US, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela and the UAE,
alongside weaker demand tied partly to China’s shift to electric vehicles. The
bank assumes just over 10% of the demand lost during the shock sticks.
It stops
short of calling a collapse, because the physical market is still tight, the
same oversupply-versus-scarcity tension I covered when oil slipped after the Maduro
capture.
US crude
inventories underline that tightness. Stockpiles fell 7.2 million barrels to
426.5 million in the latest week, nearly 5% below the five-year average, while
distillates sat 13% below normal, per Investing data. Oil trading volumes climbed through Q1 as volatility
intensified.
The 2027
downgrade rests on:
Non-OPEC supply growth from the US, Brazil, Guyana,
Venezuela and the UAE
Structural demand loss, with Goldman assuming over
10% of the shock-driven drop persists
China EV penetration eroding gasoline and diesel
demand
Still-tight inventories, which keep Goldman from
forecasting a deeper slide
How Low Can Oil Go? Oil
Price Predictions
How low oil
can go depends on whether the Hormuz reopening holds. Goldman’s $90 Q4 2026
Brent call still bakes in a war premium that is actively draining, so I read it
as a ceiling rather than a base if the deal sticks. Its $80 cut for 2027
matches my own bias: once Gulf barrels return, the structural surplus reasserts
and rallies get sold.
The
official forecasters agree on direction. The EIA’s June outlook sees Brent
easing to $89 in Q4 2026 and averaging $79 in 2027, assuming Hormuz reopens in
the third quarter. JPMorgan is more bearish at $75 for 2027, the lowest of the
majors, and that number looks reasonable to me if demand stays soft and US
output holds near record highs.
How low can WTI crude oil go according to my technical analysis? Source: Tradingview.com
On my
chart, the first WTI support is the $80 shelf, where the 200 EMA, the June 2025
highs and the round number converge. Lose it, and $72 from April 2025 opens up.
The bull case is a deal collapse: mines, insurance friction or a failed nuclear
track snap the premium back and drive WTI into the $110 to $120 consolidation
again.
Source
Target
Notes
Goldman Sachs
Brent $90
Q4 2026,
kept; near-term war premium
Goldman Sachs
Brent $80
2027
average, cut $5 on supply growth
EIA (June STEO)
Brent $89 / $79
Q4 2026 / 2027; Hormuz reopens Q3
JPMorgan
Brent $75
2027 average; deepest major call
My TA
WTI $80, then $72
200 EMA
shelf, then April 2025 level
My TA (bull)
WTI $110 to $120
If deal
collapses, back into consolidation
Bull
case (deal fails, premium returns):
Mine-clearing or insurance
friction delays Hormuz transits past June 19
Iran-Oman control of the strait
reignites supply fears
Nuclear talks collapse inside
the 60-day window, risking renewed strikes
Bear
case (deal holds, surplus returns):
Gulf shut-ins restart, adding
back more than 10 million barrels per day of disrupted output
Non-OPEC supply from the US,
Brazil and Guyana keeps building
China EV demand and record US
production cap any rebound
FAQ, OIL Price Analysis
Why is oil falling today?
WTI crude
fell almost 5% to $80.73 on June 15, 2026, and Brent dropped below $84 after
the US and Iran agreed to an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The
waterway carried about a fifth of global oil supply before the war, so its
reopening drains the geopolitical premium that had lifted crude since late
February.
How low can oil prices go?
My
technical analysis puts the first WTI support at the $80 shelf, where the
200-day EMA and June 2025 highs converge. A break below it opens $72, the April
2025 level. The EIA sees Brent averaging $79 in 2027, while JPMorgan models
$75, so a move into the $70s is credible if the deal holds.
What is the Goldman Sachs
oil price forecast for 2027?
Goldman
Sachs cut its 2027 average Brent forecast to $80 a barrel on June 12, 2026, a
$5 reduction. The bank kept its Q4 2026 Brent call at $90 but expects stronger
supply from the US, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela and the UAE, plus weaker Chinese
demand, to weigh on prices next year.
When will the Strait of
Hormuz reopen?
The US and
Iran are due to sign their interim deal on June 19, 2026, in Switzerland, after
which the strait is set to reopen once mines are cleared. The EIA assumes
shipments resume in the third quarter of 2026, with traffic taking until early
2027 to return to pre-conflict levels.
Is WTI crude still in an
uptrend?
Yes, for
now. WTI broke its three-month consolidation on June 15, 2026, but the daily
trend remains up while the 200-day EMA near $80 holds. My read hinges on
whether a bounce reclaims the old range or the former floor at $85 to $88, now
resistance, caps the rebound.
The New Zealand dollar has jumped to kick off the trading week on Monday, touching the 200-day EMA, but interestingly enough, we see the Kiwi dollar roll right back over again. By doing so, this is a market that is showing you there’s real concern out there right now, as the peace agreement between the Iranians and the Americans, quite frankly, the more details that are released by each country, the less likely it looks, I think, to many people to be signed. That being said, we are in a consolidation area right now with the 0.58 level being the beginning of significant support and the 200-day EMA above being resistance.
