Despite the lack of positive momentum in natural gas price recently, its repeated stability above the additional support level at $2.850 reinforces the dominance of the previously suggested bullish trajectory, with the price currently advancing toward $3.120.
We expect the price to renew its bullish attempts and pressure the 55-period EMA, which has recently formed an important barrier at $3.250. Breaking above this level would open the way toward further positive targets, starting at $3.420 and $3.550, respectively.
The expected trading range for today is between $2.950 and $3.250
This currency paid has been within a long-term upwards track. However, financial institutions and large players who find themselves taking opposing positions and are trying to merely pursue the bullish trend often find that dangers and expensive losses lurk. The USD/JPY trend is publicly being confronted by the Bank of Japan – and sometimes the U.S Treasury/Fed – and those who want to pursue what appears to be a consistently rising tide, must also acknowledge the tide reverses quickly. Retail traders who want to pursue the USD/JPY cannot be blamed, there are profits to be made, but substantial losses can occur too.
USD/JPY’s Uptrend Remains Vulnerable to Sudden Reversals
Technical traders of the USD/JPY can point to a long line of charts to say the currency pair remains locked within an upwards draft. However, those same technical charts – including near-term – also clearly show that spikes downwards occur. The desire to seek momentum in the USD/JPY remains strong and can be described as tantalizing.
Yet, experienced speculators know that what feels like a comfortable march upwards can be struck by a sudden punch downwards. The Bank of Japan is caught within a monetary policy that has many financial institutions outwardly betting against the JPY, thus the BoJ has steadily intervened and crushed long positions. The ability of the Bank of Japan to intervene remains a real threat for large and small traders tempted to buy the USD/JPY.
As of this writing the USD/JPY is near the 158.350 realm and has been showing a track upwards. The currency pair remains fast and has been climbing again over the past couple of weeks – but has also seen momentary strikes lower. Betting on the USD/JPY to move higher at the current elevations is a wager that makes sense.
But it is also a gamble, because if financial institutions are threatened by the BoJ via rhetoric that an intervention could occur, this sometimes proves enough to cause reversals lower. Yes, the USD/JPY has been higher and then has faced loud interventions. Two questions and points come to mind: where would the USD/JPY be if there had been no interventions over the past year? And how should traders attack the USD/JPY if they remain skeptical about fundamental policies that the Bank of Japan is having a difficult time fixing – particularly when interventions to kill off buying momentum is a real piece of the trading landscape.
Abrupt Price Moves Can Undermine Planned Exits
Without the influence of the Bank of Japan interventions the currency pair would likely be closer to 170.00 at this juncture, perhaps higher. However, that really cannot be worked into the thinking of traders accept to know the policy of the BoJ is not held in high regard in the mindsets of many financial institutions.
Thus, retail traders need to understand if they are wagering on the USD/JPY, that the bets should always be on the lookout for sudden problems to emerge and have take profit orders working to cash out winning bets. If a trader can use a trailing stop and simply have their wager eliminated effectively with a profit remaining that is a good option. However, sometimes interventions can cause notorious spikes downwards which shoot past stop loss orders leaving traders at the mercy of their brokers.
USD/JPY Price Chart – Double Top at 158.00
Rising USD/JPY Tests Confidence in the Trend
You cannot blindly bet on the upside of the USD/JPY. The BoJ has proven it can and will hurt the largest of players in the currency pair if they believe too much speculation exists. The Bank of Japan however remains caught in a tough problem. Clearly the government of Japan favors a somewhat weaker JPY, but at the same time doesn’t want the currency to become too devalued. The current USD centric strength in the broad market is problematic too for the USD/JPY right now and not making things easy on policy makers in Japan, nor the U.S Treasury. Yet, looking for upside in the USD/JPY remains the logical bet. However, conservative traders may want to wait for downturns and then look to ignite upside bets.
Following Momentum and Avoiding Sudden Violent Shifts
The USD/JPY is approaching dangerous elevations once again. Again – being the most important word. We have seen this currency pair theatre before. Buying the USD/JPY certainly remains the flavor of the day. The problem for speculators is knowing when it is safe to step into the speculative spotlight and follow momentum correctly, without getting destroyed by a sudden shift of sentiment caused by the BoJ.
USD/JPY: Levels to Watch
Around the article’s quoted price of 158.350, the immediate focus is whether that support area holds and how the pair behaves near resistance at 158.450. Sustained trading above resistance would put 158.850 into focus; a loss of support would shift attention toward 157.950.
These are reference points rather than promised destinations. The unresolved issue is whether moves beyond this narrow range attract sustained participation or quickly reverse, particularly if intervention concerns return to the foreground.
Robert Petrucci is a Market and Geopolitical Analyst at DailyForex with professional experience in the Forex, commodity, and broader financial markets dating back to 1993. His work focuses on risk analysis, macroeconomic themes, and how geopolitical events affect currencies, commodities, stock indices, and cryptocurrencies. Robert brings a conservative wealth management perspective from his long-standing advisory roles, translating complex market conditions into structured scenarios for traders and investors.
As seen on:Investing.com, TalkMarkets, Angry MetaTraders
Coffee price continued to form strong bullish waves, moving further away from the pivotal support level at 269.00, as it responded to the positive signals from the main indicators and recorded notable gains, reaching 305.00 and thereby achieving the targets suggested in the previous report.
Currently, with the price attempting to establish 295.10 as additional support and positive momentum available, we expect it to resume its bullish advance, targeting 311.10 in the near term, followed by 320.75, closing the previously formed price gap.
The expected trading range for today is between 294.00 and 311.10
The pair’s lack of bearish momentum has led to the formation of some bullish corrective waves, with GBPJPY breaking above 209.10 yesterday, recovering some of its previous losses as it currently approaches 210.10.
We reiterate that the bearish scenario remains valid as long as 210.40 holds as the key resistance level. Holding below this barrier would give the price a new opportunity to resume negative trading, targeting 209.00 before renewing pressure on the obstacle at 208.10. However, breaking above the current resistance and holding above it would confirm a shift toward the bullish trajectory, paving the way for further gains initially toward 211.30 and 212.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.10 and 210.40
If Tuesday’s high leads to a break above resistance and confirms the formation of a higher swing low, the first notable test of support at the 50-day moving average will have been completed. After reclaiming that average in August there was one quick pullback to test it as support, but the current pullback is a wider swing and carries greater significance.
The successful defense of the 50-day moving average, combined with support at the August swing high and the rising trend channel, adds weight to the underlying strength suggested by the bullish structure. For now, Tuesday’s low at $88.66 is the key reference point, while a move above Tuesday’s high would provide the confirmation needed to turn this potential pullback low into a more meaningful bullish reversal.
The euro continues to grind lower, but is sitting in the middle of a demand zone that we are well aware of. At this point, buyers are trying to get involved. That being said, this is a pair that could lag a bit.
EUR/JPY
The euro has fallen a bit during the trading session on Monday, but it has seen a little bit of a pushback. Ultimately, the interest rate differential does favor the euro, but part of that is due to concerns about French debt, and that is a major detriment to the currency. Those are not higher interest rates because the economy is hot. France is the second-largest economy in the European Union, and this will continue to be an issue for traders when it comes to being overly bullish on the euro currency in general.
Noisy zone of Confluence
Market participants continue to see a lot of noisy behavior between the 178 yen and the 175 yen levels. With that being said, market participants continue to see a lot of noisy behavior between the ¥178 and ¥175 levels. I do like the idea of shorting the yen. It may not be here, though. We’ll just have to wait and see whether or not that takes off.
If we can break above the ¥178 level, then it could open up a move to the ¥181 level. But if we were to break down below the ¥175 level, then we could see this pair fall apart. That would probably see the euro falling against everything else, as we’ve seen, and the Japanese yen strengthening. This is a situation where we are watching a lot of things at the same time.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think is trying to find a situation where we are trying to bounce. We are seeing buyers coming in to pick up value, but this may be one of the weaker pairs when taking into account the yen as the denominator.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
The weekly chart is also showing increasing compression of price as the range contracted last week, putting it inside the range of the prior week. Subsequently, this week’s range could extend that compression to a second inside week. Expansion follows compression, and a second consecutive inside week on the weekly timeframe could lead to a sharp move in price.
Given recent bullish indications, the more likely direction looks to be higher. That potential for expansion makes the current test of the 200-day moving average especially important, as a successful breakout would provide the clearest confirmation yet that the developing bullish structure can continue.
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved modestly higher on Tuesday as a brighter mood across financial markets reduced demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3239, having edged up slightly from Tuesday’s opening level.
Demand for the US Dollar (USD) eased on Tuesday as investors became more willing to move into riskier assets.
Wall Street’s technology-led rally helped lift broader market sentiment, while a retreat in oil prices offered further reassurance after elevated energy costs had contributed to recent concerns over inflation and global growth.
Despite Tuesday’s pullback, USD remained close to multi-month highs.
The US Dollar Index was hovering around 102.2 after gaining almost 1% during the previous week, while elevated US Treasury yields continued to provide the currency with a degree of underlying support.
Sterling (GBP) traded within a relatively narrow range on Tuesday morning as investors awaited comments from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann.
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Mann was one of three Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members to vote for an immediate 25-basis-point rate increase at September’s meeting.
Her latest remarks could therefore attract considerable attention from GBP traders.
Any indication that she continues to favour higher borrowing costs could strengthen expectations for a November hike and provide another lift for Sterling.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Minutes to Offer Fresh Policy Clues
Wednesday’s release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting is likely to provide the next significant catalyst for the Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.
Investors will be looking for clues about how much support there is within the central bank for additional interest rate increases.
An especially hawkish set of minutes could revive some expectations for tighter policy, although a return to firm October hike bets appears unlikely.
Should the minutes instead reinforce the possibility of a December increase, the US Dollar could find some support.
Sterling’s gains may remain limited in the meantime, with traders likely to adopt a cautious stance ahead of Thursday’s busy schedule of BoE speakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey.
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The US Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next on Tuesday, citing rapidly declining global inventories and tight diesel supplies caused by the ongoing war with Iran, Reuters reported.The EIA now expects global benchmark Brent crude to average about $98 a barrel in 2026, an 8% increase from its previous projection, according to its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Oil and fuel prices have surged since the US-Israeli war with Iran disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which handled about 20% of global oil supplies before the conflict. Iran has also targeted regional energy infrastructure in retaliation for US military strikes.
Falling inventories and tight diesel supplies are expected to keep prices elevated. Brent is forecast to average about $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter, $14 above the EIA’s earlier estimate.
US retail diesel prices, which reached record highs last month, are projected to remain above $6 a gallon in October before gradually declining to an average of about $4.50 in 2027.
However, Middle Eastern oil production and exports are expected to recover gradually as transit through the Strait of Hormuz improves and producers increasingly use alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers.
As supply flows normalise and inventories rebuild, Brent is expected to average $84 a barrel in 2027, $10 above the agency’s previous forecast.
According to Reuters, regional oil flows have improved after Saudi Arabia resumed shipments through its East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Exporters have also adapted to attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure through “dark transits,” in which tankers switch off their tracking systems before transferring cargo at sea.
These measures helped restore Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, to more than 81% of pre-war levels in September.
As the workarounds expand, crude-production shutdowns are expected to decline from 4.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 to 2.7 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2027, the EIA said.
(Disclaimer: This article is based on inputs from agencies. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
USD/JPY remains stuck near resistance at 158.00 – 158.50 despite the pullback in Treasury yields. I’d note that USD/JPY has become less sensitive to Treasury yield dynamics in recent trading sessions.
Today, traders focused on BoJ Governor Ueda speech. Ueda said that BoJ would continue to raise the interest rate.
If USD/JPY climbs above the 158.50 level, it will move towards the next resistance level at 160.00 – 160.50. On the support side, a move below the 50 MA at 157.76 will push USD/JPY towards the 157.00 level. If USD/JPY settles below 157.00, it will head towards the support level at 155.00 – 155.50.
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