The EURUSD pair has been experiencing volatile trading in its latest intraday movements, as the pair attempts to offload some of its overbought conditions on the relative strength indicators, with negative signals beginning to emerge, against the dominance of the short-term bullish trend, with the pair moving alongside a trend line supporting this path. In addition, positive pressure continues to stem from trading above EMA50, which provides a support base that reinforces the pair’s chances of rising in the near term.
Benchmark Brent crude oil futures rose past $100 a barrel on Wednesday, breaching the symbolic barrier for the first time since July 24, as intensifying conflict in the Middle East fuelled growing concerns about oil flows from the region.
Brent crude futures rose $2.15, or 2.2%, to $100.07 a barrel by 0721 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1.70, or 1.83%, at $94.73 a barrel.
Brent has risen by a quarter since early last month as hopes fade for a permanent resolution to the six-month-old conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington would continue targeting Iranian oil tankers in response to attempted attacks on U.S. warships. “Iran continues to try to hit U.S. naval ships, and for every time they do that or try to do that, they’re going to lose tankers,” Rubio told reporters during a visit to Colombia.
U.S. Central Command said on Tuesday that its forces had destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers on September 8 following attempted missile attacks on a U.S. Navy warship over the previous two days.
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Jordan’s air-defence systems intercepted 18 of the 20 ballistic missiles launched from Iranian territory, while the other two fell in unpopulated areas, according to the country’s state news agency, which cited the military. No casualties were reported.
Where are prices headed?
Goldman Sachs has warned that oil prices could reach as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on shipping in the Middle East intensify, with the renewed hostilities raising concerns about disruptions to crude supplies.Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said in an interview with Bloomberg that recent developments indicated that the risk of wider and more severe shipping disruptions had become an important concern.
Struyven said Goldman Sachs sees “meaningful upside to crude oil prices”, while also suggesting that investors position for higher natural gas and refined product prices. He said the supply shocks in gas and fuels are larger than those in the crude market.
The duration of the disruption will be critical for the oil market. JPMorgan estimates that every additional month of disruption could add around $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent prices. If the disruption lasts three months, the bank expects average monthly Brent prices to reach around $114 a barrel.
Citi has raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 a barrel from $80, pointing to a longer-than-expected timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
ANZ analysts have also increased their short-term Brent forecast to $95 a barrel and warned that prices could rise further if the Middle East conflict escalates. They said a prolonged standoff involving calibrated military action by the U.S. and Iran appeared to be the most likely scenario, potentially delaying the return of full Middle East supply.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate made modest gains on Wednesday, with Sterling benefiting as broader currency market dynamics limited demand for the US Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3559, up by approximately 0.2% compared with Wednesday’s opening levels.
The US Dollar (USD) struggled for momentum on Wednesday, with a rally in the Japanese Yen putting pressure on the ‘Greenback’.
The Yen rose to a seven-month high against the US Dollar as expectations of a Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate hike continued to build.
Growing speculation around further monetary tightening in Japan has also encouraged investors to unwind Yen-funded carry trades, providing another source of support for the currency.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar faced additional headwinds as markets adopted a cautious stance ahead of Friday’s US consumer price index.
August’s inflation figures could have a significant bearing on the Federal Reserve’s September policy decision, with markets currently assigning around a 60% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike.
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A weaker-than-expected inflation reading could cause these expectations to retreat, particularly following comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggesting he would prefer to keep interest rates unchanged if there are indications that price pressures are continuing to ease.
Sterling (GBP) managed to edge higher against the US Dollar but remained largely subdued versus its other major counterparts on Wednesday as a fresh jump in energy costs reignited concerns over UK inflation.
UK wholesale natural gas prices surged to their highest levels since 2022, with ongoing instability in the Middle East contributing to the sharp increase.
Higher energy costs could strengthen the case for the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates later in the year.
However, the potential impact on consumers appeared to be a greater concern for GBP investors.
There are growing fears that another squeeze on household finances could weigh heavily on consumer spending, potentially undermining the UK economy’s momentum in the months ahead.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Producer Prices in Spotlight
Turning to Thursday, the latest US inflation data is likely to set the tone for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.
The latest producer price index is expected to show that factory-gate inflation picked up again in August.
A stronger-than-forecast reading could reinforce expectations ahead of Friday’s more closely watched consumer price data, potentially lending further support to the ‘Greenback’ if it points to renewed inflationary pressure.
For Sterling, attention will shift towards the UK’s latest GDP figures on Friday.
Economists expect month-on-month economic activity to have stagnated in July. Should the figures confirm that growth stalled, the Pound could face fresh selling pressure as investors reassess the outlook for the UK economy.
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Gold (XAU/USD) trims losses on Wednesday, with price action returning to the $4,400 area during the European morning session, after bouncing from $4,345 lows on Tuesday. The precious metal is drawing support from broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness, although the broader trend remains bearish, after losing more than $100 in the previous three trading days.
The Greenback is on its back foot on Wednesday, with investors awaiting Friday’s US Consumer Inflation figures to confirm expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates next week.
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman argue that “a hot CPI print would all but seal a September hike and underpin a firmer USD,” whereas “a cooler reading would strengthen the case for a hold and leave USD vulnerable to a dovish Fed repricing.” BBH experts, however, warn that “even if a September Fed hike becomes a done deal, we doubt USD will make new cyclical highs,” noting that tightening by other major central banks “limits policy divergence, with the ECB widely expected to deliver a 25bps hike tomorrow.”
Technical Analysis: A bearish H&S pattern looms
XAU/USD has trimmed losses, returning to $4,400, yet with price action contained within Tuesday’s range, and with the broader bearish structure intact. The precious metal remains capped below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with last week’s knee-jerk reaction looking like the second shoulder of a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) formation.
Momentum indicators in the daily chart are neutral-to-bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flat around 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in negative territory, suggesting that rebounds are vulnerable.
Tuesday’s low in the mid-$4,300s is holding bears for now and closing the path to the H&S neckline between $4,311 and $4,282, the August 14 and September 2 lows, respectively. A confirmation below those levels brings the August 6 low, at $4,223, into focus. Upside attempts above $4,400, on the contrary, are likely to meet resistance at Tuesday’s high of $4,443, ahead of last week’s highs around $4,500 and the 200-day SMA at $4,537.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Daily chart for US 2-Year Treasury Yield showing yield climbing to 4.425% above the 50 EMA (4.233%) and the 200 EMA (3.986%). Source: TradingView
The U.S. 2-year yield is the first place I’m focusing on today. It continues to climb. Rates rocketing higher suggest people are becoming more and more used to the idea that the Federal Reserve is likely to hike rates, or at least that it is becoming more likely to hike rates next week.
Platinum price didn’t move anything since yesterday, keeping its temporary sideways fluctuation near $1825.00 level, due to the continuation of forming an obstacle against the bullish rally at $1835.00 level.
We recommend waiting to confirm the required breach by providing positive closes above the current barrier, reinforcing the chances of reaching the positive stations, which might begin at $1910.00 and $1958.00, while the risk of changing the trend and begin a bearish trend depends on breaking $1705.00 support.
The expected trading range for today is between $1780.00 and $1910.00
The GBP/JPY pair has dropped significantly, only to turn things around and show signs of life again.
GBP/JPY
The British pound initially fell against the Japanese yen as we continued to see a lot of carry trade unwind around the world, but it has turned back around later in the day. Perhaps the Japanese yen got a little bit ahead of itself.
So as we head toward a Bank of Japan interest rate decision late next week, we also have to keep in mind that the interest rate differential is going to continue to be a big driver over the longer term.
The question is whether or not we have seen the carry trade unwind finish, or whether the market still has further to go.
The hammer that we are forming for the session is a good look. So we’ll see. I’ll be watching the 210 yen level for a potential breakaway to the upside.
A breakdown below the bottom of the candlestick for the day would be very negative. It could open up the pound to drop down to the 205 yen level.
Overall, this is a market that is being heavily influenced by the Bank of Japan and its intervention. And the question now is whether or not that intervention continues.
This isn’t the primary pair. The primary pair is dollar-yen, but this still has that huge interest rate differential. And even if the Bank of Japan does raise rates, it only makes a slight difference.
It certainly is a market that has been manipulated. That’s nothing new via intervention. But from a longer-term standpoint, not much has changed.
Maybe the British pound softens a little bit, and maybe the next high isn’t at 220 yen like we had seen at one point.
But the interest rate differential continues to be supportive, although that has deteriorated over the last couple of weeks.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
Despite the weakness in the natural gas price last trading, it formed a new sideways fluctuation by its stability near $2.880 level, however it didn’t affect the chances of forming new bullish waves, depending on the stability of the main support at $2.620 besides forming extra support at $2.810 level against the current trading.
The continuation of providing positive momentum by stochastic will help it renew the bullish attempts in the near period, to keep waiting for attacking $3.100 level, and surpassing it will ease the mission of achieving extra losses by its rally towards $3.250 and $3.450.
The expected trading range for today is between $2.800 and $3.100
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up almost 1% to near $66.40 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar remains under pressure despite expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates at the policy meeting next week.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly lower to near 98.76. The USD Index is closer to its two-week low of 98.72 posted on Tuesday.
A lower US Dollar makes the Silver price a favorable risk-reward bet for investors.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 60% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in the September policy meeting. Hawkish Fed bets are propelled by a stronger-than-expected United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for August released on Friday.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August scheduled for Friday to get fresh cues regarding the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
TD sees core inflation easing but flags upside risks from tariffs
According to TD Securities, core inflation likely continued to moderate in August, with the bank projecting that “core CPI rose 2.3% on a y/y basis, down 10 bps vs July,” while “headline inflation likely stayed unchanged at 3.4% y/y.” However, the economists caution that “we see the risks to our forecasts as skewed to the upside given that we’re assuming a number of large price declines in tariff-exposed goods categories.”
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.42. The metal trades close to the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.79, reflecting a sideways trend.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.68 sits in neutral-positive territory, suggesting modest bullish momentum rather than overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support is seen near the August 19 low at $62.19, followed by the psychological level of $60.00. Looking up, the June high at $71.56 appears to be a strong barrier for the Silver price bulls.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The EURJPY pair attempted to form sideways trading yesterday, however its stability below 180.80 barrier pushed it to renew the bearish attempts, to settle near 178.40 level.
Providing negative momentum by the main indicators reinforces the chances of resuming the bearish trend, to expect surpassing 177.80 level to pave the way for reaching extra negative stations, which are located near 177.35 and 176.70.
The expected trading range for today is between 177.35 and 179.40
