Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $4,133.61, after a bounce from the $4,073.63 area on the 2-hour time frame. I like to draw your attention to the fact that the price bounce has taken gold above the $4,107-$4,128 area, but is still below a descending trend line and a resistance area formed by the moving averages. Thus, the overall bearish trend is still intact, despite the current bounce.The first area of interest on the upside is at $4,161.46, above which $4,181.44 and $4,216.96 would come into play. On the other hand, the first support comes in at $4,127.56, below which $4,107.28, $4,088.10, and $4,073.63 would come into focus.

Wednesday’s high came before the number. A build near 73 Bcf gives buyers another shot at the market. A print near 77 Bcf leaves room for the sellers who hit the market late Wednesday.

Warm Weather Comes Back Next Week

Highs in the 80s and 90s are running from East Texas to the Mid-Atlantic Coast Thursday. A cold system is crossing the Midwest with highs in the 40s and 50s. It reaches the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend, with lows in the teens to 30s.

NatGasWeather sees moderate demand from Friday through Sunday, then low demand next week. The Commodity Weather Group sees above-average temperatures spreading across the central third of the country from October 19 through October 23.

The cold is in the forecast. So is the warmth behind it.

LNG and TCO Are Holding the Bullish Side Together

Estimated LNG net flows to U.S. export terminals were 19.7 Bcf per day Wednesday, up 9.6% from the prior week, according to BNEF. European gas storage was 74% full as of October 12, compared with the five-year seasonal average of 89%.

The TCO pipeline outage has also put future storage builds back on the board. LNG demand, lower European storage and the outage are the three supply-side issues traders are carrying into the EIA report.

Lower-48 dry gas production was 111.2 Bcf per day Wednesday, up 2.9% from a year ago, according to BNEF. Lower-48 gas demand was 72.7 Bcf per day, up 3.8% from a year ago.

Production Is Not Getting Out of the Way

LNG is making the dips harder to sell, but the market is not short gas. The EIA still sees end-of-October storage at 3,985 Bcf, the highest level in 10 years and 5% above the five-year average. It also raised its 2027 dry gas production forecast to 116.0 Bcf per day from 115.3 Bcf per day.

Last week’s 85 Bcf build was a little above the 82 Bcf estimate, but still below the five-year average of 96 Bcf. Inventories are 2.0% above the seasonal average and 3.9% below last year. That is not a supply squeeze.

Baker Hughes took one gas rig out of the count, leaving 132. That is down from 135 two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Lower-48 output is running at 111.2 Bcf per day. One rig is not going to change that story.

What to Watch

The storage report is the first real answer after Wednesday’s break. A light injection gives the buyers another reason to stay with LNG demand and the TCO outage. A larger build brings the warm weather trade right back into the market. Next week is the harder problem. Demand fades, the central United States stays warm and production remains heavy.

Wednesday’s reversal top is still sitting on the chart. The main trend held up, but buyers have to take out Wednesday’s high to dismiss the reversal. Sellers need a break under Wednesday’s low to prove it. Until then, neither side has finished the job.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

The GBPJPY pair remains stable below 210.40 level, forcing it to form some negative trading, approaching 208.10 support, to settle above it to confirm the previously suggested bullish trend.

The price needs a new bullish momentum, to surpass 209.45 level, then repeating the pressure on 210.40 level to find an exit for recording extra gains that might extend to 211.20.

The expected trading range for today is between 208.20 and 210.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price kept forming strong negative trading, due to the stability below the extra barrier at $1740.00, holding near the second negative target by reaching $1595.00 level.

Stochastic attempt to settle near 20 level might increase the negative pressures on the price, to motivate it to resume the negative trend, to target $1555.00 level soon, then monitor its behavior due to the importance of this obstacle for detecting the expected trend in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $1555.00 and $1635.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

Fibonacci Support Defines Next Downside Zone

If gold breaks below $4,066, the next lower potential support area is defined by the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance at $4,028. Gold found support near both the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement levels during the correction, making the 88.6% level a potentially significant area for another reaction. It is reinforced by the summer trading range, which provides a broader support zone extending toward its low of $3,942. A break below $4,066 would expose this next retracement target, while a sustained recovery from the current levels would be needed to challenge the prevailing bearish pressure.

Copper pulled back from a three-week high on Wednesday after US inflation data put a Federal Reserve rate hike this month back on the table, and word of a preliminary deal to avert a strike at BHP’s Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, took some of the supply premium out of the price.

Comex copper for December delivery traded at $6.6695 a pound (about $14,704 a tonne) late morning in New York, down 0.8%, after touching $6.7890 earlier in the session. The most-active contract’s record settlement of $6.89 was set on September 9, the day before a report that the White House tariff plan had stalled knocked more than 5% off the price.

In London, three-month copper climbed as far as $14,700 a tonne, its highest since September 23, before easing to $14,532 by early afternoon. Cash copper settled at a record $14,822 on Monday and $14,741 on Tuesday, and LME inventories have fallen for seven straight sessions to 229,650 tonnes.

US consumer prices accelerated in September on a surge in gasoline costs, and the CME’s FedWatch tool put the odds of a quarter-point hike at the Fed’s late-October meeting at about 44%, double the day before, Reuters reported. New York Fed President John Williams said he still sees one more hike this year.

Two sources told Reuters that Escondida’s supervisors’ union and the company had reached a preliminary agreement, which members were voting on Wednesday morning, and a union leader told Bloomberg a deal was “virtually done”. Unions at Antofagasta’s Centinela returned to talks on Tuesday after a week-long stoppage, while the open pit at Codelco’s El Teniente remains shut after a deadly landslide.

Copper’s 2026 advance has forecasters raising their numbers for the second time in three months, and with the metal averaging $13,471 a tonne for the year to date, the 2026 revisions mostly bring the sheet into line with the tape.

Macquarie now has copper averaging $13,573 this year, BMO Capital Markets $13,619 and BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, $13,500, up from the $12,700 it moved to in July. The differences open up from next year, and they come down to how much of the 1.5 to 2 million tonnes of copper now sitting in the United States is counted as surplus.

“The great copper gamble”

Macquarie, which in July called the rally “running ahead of reality”, has lifted its 2027 average by 14% to $12,750 and pushed the cycle low to $12,000 in the fourth quarter of next year from $11,000 a quarter earlier, while its long-term price rises to $10,500 a tonne in 2025 dollars.

Prices “have disconnected from the fundamentals and could arguably move higher or lower depending on the outcome of the Section 232,” the bank’s strategists write in a quarterly compendium whose copper chapter is headed “The great copper gamble”, listing the metal among its preferred commodities for the next six to nine months “but very binary”.

The fundamentals as Macquarie counts them are a 223,000-tonne surplus this year after a 531,000-tonne disruption allowance, and surpluses averaging more than 700,000 tonnes a year from 2027 as mine supply grows 4.9% next year and 4.3% in 2028, with Collahuasi, Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula and Centinela ramping up, Tia Maria starting and Cobre Panama back in full from mid-2027.

Global demand growth slows to 1.5% in 2027 on its numbers, with none at all in China, where construction-related copper use is shrinking 9% a year and air conditioner makers are “again looking at aluminium substitution.”

Visible stocks worldwide are up 300,000 tonnes this year, but that is the US build; everywhere else they are down 168,000 tonnes, and Macquarie says sentiment will not turn until LME and Shanghai inventories start rising again, either quickly on a tariff decision or gradually as its forecast surpluses feed through.

Macquarie’s four tariff scenarios run from a January 1 that passes with no announcement at all, which it rates most likely, to a definitive decision against a duty, which it rates least likely: “the CME price will most likely collapse, taking the LME price with it, and the arb will invert,” with surplus US stocks reappearing in LME warehouses in the US and Asia.

A tariff announced six to eight weeks ahead of implementation would pull a last wave of metal into the US and leave the rest of the world “very tight”, while a formal six-month delay would see the spread fade as it did for platinum and palladium after the critical minerals decision.

Expectations are also growing that a scrap export ban will be folded into any decision; an immediate ban would take about 600,000 tonnes a year of contained copper off the world market.

“Has the market misread US inventory?”

BMO Capital Markets arrives at a very different place from a similar starting point. Its quarterly price deck, published two days before Macquarie’s, raises its long-term copper price by 47% to $16,000 a tonne in real terms, or $18,000 nominal by 2030, with $14,675 for 2027 and $16,000 for 2028, and the bank puts itself 46% above consensus on the long-term number. Its market balance is close to balanced throughout: an 83,000-tonne surplus this year, then small deficits from 2027.

The argument turns on what the US hoard, now close to 2 million tonnes on BMO’s estimate, or about a year of American consumption, actually represents. China’s refined copper imports have run below trend and its exports above trend since the tariff trade began, a cumulative swing of about 1.6 million tonnes on a net basis, which BMO reads as Beijing allowing its strategic reserve to run down while Washington built one.

“Instead of there being a build in above ground inventory over the last 2 years, there has been a geographical redistribution from ‘not visible’ to ‘visible’, meaning today’s price of ~$14,500-15,000/t is fundamentally supported,” the bank writes. Had China bid for metal alongside the US, “copper prices today would in fact be much, much higher,” and at some point China will want to restock.

BMO expects no tariff decision before the US midterms in November, which may see copper “pause for breath” and keep the Comex-LME spread narrow, but says investors it talks to are coming around to the view that the US stockpile “could simply stay in situ for many more years.”

Rising dependence on scrap, with China’s secondary refined output heading for 3.3 million tonnes this year from 2.8 million, is the other leg of its case: scrap is the marginal unit, and it only comes out at higher prices.

BMI sits between the two. It still views the rally “as having extended beyond what fundamentals alone would suggest” and has the market in a 43,000-tonne surplus this year, but has cut its 2026 mine supply growth forecast to 1.1% from 2.4% with Chilean output down 4%, and expects a deficit from 2027 that widens to 1.7 million tonnes by 2035 as demand grows 3% to 4% a year on grids, EVs and data centres.

Its 2027 forecast is $12,900, rising to $15,000 in 2029 and an unchanged $17,000 in 2035. The International Copper Study Group, meeting this week, lifted its 2026 surplus to 104,000 tonnes and kept 2027 at 368,000 tonnes.

The spread that built the US stockpile has all but disappeared on a spot basis. Comex October copper at $6.62 a pound trades below LME cash, which at Tuesday’s $14,741 works out to $6.69, and John Gross of The Copper Journal calculates the month-to-date average has flipped to an 85-point LME premium from a 17-cent Comex premium in June.

Most of that is London’s doing: the backwardation that put cash $164.50 over three months at Monday’s settlement, since narrowed to $115.50, reflects how little spot metal is left outside the US.

Aurubis, Europe’s largest copper producer, has offered customers a record premium of $347 a tonne for 2027 supply, 10% above this year’s level, Benchmark Minerals reported, and a company spokesperson told Bloomberg that “a lot of material has relocated to the US, leaving warehouses quite empty.”

Further down the curve the premium survives. December Comex at $14,704 a tonne sits about $170 over LME three-month, which Macquarie read at the end of September as the market pricing a 10% chance of a 15% duty (on Wednesday’s prices the same arithmetic gives about 8%).

That is too little to pull fresh shipments across the Atlantic, but enough to keep what is already there in place as long as the Comex curve pays traders to hold it. The tonnes still arriving are cargo booked months ago: Comex stocks rose another 6,500 tonnes last week to 713,000 tonnes, with 100,000 tonnes of African and South American copper due through October.

Deutsche Bank takes the stockpiling argument furthest. Daniel Ghali, the bank’s new head of metals research, told the Wall Street Journal that with China adding to its strategic reserve for decades and the tariff threat pulling metal into American sheds, the two countries could be sitting on 71% of the world’s supply by the end of the year. On that trajectory copper “simply won’t be available” to users elsewhere by the end of 2028, an outcome averted only by prices high enough to force substitution into aluminium.

He sees $10 a pound, or $22,050 a tonne, in the second quarter of 2027, almost 50% above current levels. Even a decision against tariffs may not free the metal, he told the paper, since the LME has warehouses in the US and copper may simply be shuffled between American sites rather than leave the country.

Gross points to copper’s premium over aluminium, which hit a record $5.08 a pound in September, more than double its July 2022 low. “Clearly, this rising premium cannot continue indefinitely, but who among us will step forward to say it’s at the top?” he writes. His September monthly report makes the longer point: China consumed 58.9% of the world’s refined copper last year, up from 12.4% in 2000. “There are too many copper eggs in China’s basket.”

Miners still pricing $5 copper

Copper producers fell with the metal on Wednesday, Lundin Mining down 3.9%, Freeport-McMoRan 3.7%, Southern Copper 3.3% and Teck Resources 2.9%, but the year has been kind. Southern Copper is up 44.1% in 2026, taking its market value to $169 billion, with Glencore ahead 38.6%, BHP 38.0% and Freeport 37.4% at a $100 billion valuation. Teck has gained 36.1% and Anglo American 29.2%. Lundin has managed 13.0%, Antofagasta 7.5% with Centinela on strike, and First Quantum 3.0%.

RBC Capital Markets calculates that North American copper producers at 1.0 times net asset value imply a copper price of $5.03 a pound, from $5.98 for Freeport down to $3.96 for Ivanhoe Mines, against a futures price near $6.70. The group trades at 0.9 times net asset value, in line with its 10-year average.

Comex copper is up more than 18% in 2026.