The EURJPY pair confirmed its readiness to resume the main bearish trend by providing a negative close again below the main barrier at 180.80 level, reaching 177.85 in Friday, achieving the previously awaited initial target.
The continuation of providing negative momentum by the main indicators will increase the efficiency of the negative trend, which might target new negative stations that begin at 177.35 reaching the next support near 176.70.
The expected trading range for today is between 177.35 and 178.60
Despite the stability of platinum price above $1705.00 support level, it faced negative pressure by stochastic attempt to reach the oversold levels, and forming a strong obstacle at 1840.00 level against the current trading pushed it to form new sideways moves by its stability near $1790.00.
Note that the continuation of providing negative momentum by the main indicators might push the price to renew the pressure on the previously mentioned support, to monitor its behavior to detect the suggested targets in the upcoming trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $1705.00 and $1840.00
Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bullish trend
Focus for the Euro is what occurs post the recent European Central Bank (ECB) decision. The ECB chose to increase interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in 2022. Renewed increases in inflation, driven by rising energy prices, has policymakers focused on good policymaking. EUR/USD initially sold off on the news as investors digested the growing income risks against slowing economic conditions. Speeches from President Lagarde and many of her colleagues are due at various points today, market participants should closely follow these speeches for update on future policy decisions.
For sterling, the main event this Thursday is the Bank of England meeting. About 75% of participants expect the BoE to stand pat. In the absence of any blow-up Middle East conflict, we’ll see increased re-invigoration in demand for higher yielding assets. However, ruptures to Middle East Oil continue to grow and will further increase oil prices. Increased oil prices will lead to inflation in the UK, narrowing policy divergences between the BoE, Fed and ECB.
Fundamental bias: DXY moderately bullish, EUR neutral, GBP neutral, with this week’s Fed and BoE decisions likely to determine the next major policy divergence.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Breaks Above $99.26 as $99.39 Comes Into Focus
Despite the weakness of natural gas price’s last trading, its stability above the support level of $2.620 makes us keep the bullish trend, to notice its rally to settle near $2.880 level.
Note that stochastic stability above 50 level will increase the chances of gathering positive momentum in the current trading to form new bullish waves, paving the way towards surpassing $2.920 level and reaching the next target at $3.100.
The expected trading range for today is between $2.760 and $3.100
But a 25 basis point increase may already be priced in. Therefore, USD/JPY could decline more sharply if Ueda talks at the next couple of meetings about another hike or if he indicates that rates might be raised beyond 1.75%. A dovish press conference might have the opposite effect and move USD/JPY higher.
On the other hand, the expectation of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has increased by 87% after the US inflation data. If both central banks raise rates by 25 basis points, the interest rate gap would remain broadly unchanged.
This could limit the immediate gains in yen. The move in USD/JPY would then depend mainly on which central bank signals a faster pace of future tightening.
USD/JPY Forecast: 152 Support in Focus After Break Below 159
USD/JPY remains under extreme pressure in the short term after failing at the long-term resistance zone of 160-162. The pair produced a high of 163.98 on July 20 but failed to hold it and dropped sharply. This drop indicates that the pair is moving toward the 150 area in the short term to find the next support.
This support is defined by the ascending channel pattern that stretches from the January 2023 lows. If this support holds and bottom forms around 150, it will likely initiate another rally toward 160-162.
The formation of bottoms in December 2023, September 2024 and April 2025 suggests positive price action in USD/JPY. Therefore, a confirmed break above the 162 level will likely open the way to higher levels, possibly reaching 175.
After a volatile week, the silver price prediction from UBS remains $70 for December and $80 for September 2027.
The Silver price recovered to $64.48 an ounce on Friday, clawing back less than a third of Thursday’s losses.
The 1.64% rebound still left XAG/USD down 2.6% over the week, with the metal needing a sustained recovery to reach UBS’s forecasts.
The bank’s silver price forecast starts at $70 in December 2026, rises to $75 in March and June 2027, then reaches $80 that September.
UBS has retained its earlier September projections, with December’s $70 estimate around 8.6% above Friday’s close and September 2027’s $80 target 24% higher.
View full sizeImage: Gold price in US dollars over the last month
UBS had already anticipated a rate rise before those figures arrived.
The bank said on 10 September: “Our economists’ base case is that the Fed will raise its policy rate by 25bps. Given current market expectations, the hike itself should have a relatively limited impact.”
Its focus was the accompanying message: “More important will be whether markets interpret the decision and the tone of the subsequent press conference as leaning hawkish or dovish.”
In its currency outlook, UBS added: “In our base case, we do not expect a hawkish hike that would provide broad support for the dollar.”
That leaves room, in our view, for silver to recover even if US rates rise, provided the dollar does not strengthen materially.
The Fed’s 15–16 September meeting will test that reading, with most of Thursday’s silver losses still unrecovered.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
2026.09.11 2026.09.11 WTI Crude Oil: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 11.09.26–18.09.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 92.50 with a target of 115.50–125.50. A buy signal: the price holds above 92.50. Stop Loss: below 91.00, Take Profit: 115.50–125.50.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 92.50 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.58–67.00. A sell signal: the level of 92.50 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 94.00, Take Profit: 78.58–67.00.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 92.50 with a target of 115.50–125.50.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 92.50 will allow the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.58–67.00.
Analysis
On the weekly chart, a descending correction has likely finished developing as the second wave of larger degree (2) and an ascending third wave (3) is forming. On the daily chart, apparently, the first wave of smaller degree 1 of (3) has formed, a local correction has been completed as wave 2 of (3), and the third wave 3 of (3) is unfolding. Wave i of 3 continues developing on the H4 chart; within it, wave (iii) of i is unfolding. If the presumption is correct, WTI will continue to rise to 115.50–125.50. The level of 92.50 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the asset to continue declining to the levels of 78.58–67.00.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USCRUDE in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
Stronger core inflation favours MUFG’s bearish Euro outlook, with the bank now expecting a September Fed hike and EUR/USD closing below 1.16.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate closed Friday near 1.1599, down 0.10% on the day, as stronger US core inflation reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase.
MUFG’s downside scenario points towards 1.14, approximately 1.7% below that close.
Before Friday’s inflation release, the bank outlined two possible paths: a Fed hold alongside further ECB tightening could lift EUR/USD towards 1.20, while a September Fed hike could push it towards the bottom of its 1.14-1.18 range.
“The performance of EUR/USD may increasingly hinge on the Fed’s policy response,” MUFG’s Lee Hardman said.
Core inflation strengthens the case for a hike
The August CPI release showed core prices rising 0.3% on the month, accelerating from July’s 0.2% increase and exceeding the 0.2% consensus.
Headline prices rose 0.4%, with gasoline accounting for more than a third of the increase.
Annual core inflation nevertheless eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, making this a setback in monthly momentum rather than an acceleration across every measure.
Market estimates put the probability of a September hike around 85-90% after the release.
MUFG subsequently changed its own Fed forecast:
“As a result, we now expect the Fed to hike rates by 25bps in September.”
Thursday’s ECB decision announced a quarter-point increase in the deposit rate to 2.50%, effective from 16 September, while projecting inflation above target through 2028.
That supported the argument for further European tightening explored in our earlier EUR/USD outlook.
We believe Friday’s CPI weakens the case for the Euro to benefit from an ECB tightening cycle while the Fed stands aside.
However, with a US hike already heavily anticipated, its delivery alone may offer limited additional Dollar support.
MUFG’s rates strategists acknowledge that markets have already priced in much of the expected tightening and may have gone too far.
A move towards 1.14 therefore remains conditional on how the Fed’s decision and guidance change expectations for subsequent meetings.
Euro Prices: This Week
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
+0.13%
-0.08%
-1.75%
+0.24%
+0.46%
+1.16%
+0.79%
EUR
-0.13%
-0.21%
-1.87%
+0.12%
+0.33%
+1.03%
+0.67%
GBP
+0.08%
+0.21%
-1.67%
+0.33%
+0.54%
+1.24%
+0.88%
JPY
+1.78%
+1.91%
+1.70%
+2.03%
+2.24%
+2.96%
+2.58%
CAD
-0.24%
-0.12%
-0.33%
-1.99%
+0.21%
+0.91%
+0.55%
AUD
-0.46%
-0.33%
-0.54%
-2.20%
-0.21%
+0.70%
+0.33%
NZD
-1.15%
-1.02%
-1.23%
-2.87%
-0.90%
-0.69%
-0.36%
CHF
-0.79%
-0.66%
-0.87%
-2.52%
-0.54%
-0.33%
+0.36%
The FX heat map compares how Euro (EUR) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Japanese Yen, where Euro recorded its sharpest decline. Data comparing prices today (12/09/2026 12:07 UTC) and daily close on 05/09/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The CADCHF confirmed the bullish scenario by providing repeated bullish closes above the support level of 0.5770, forming several bullish waves and recording clear gains by its stability near 0.5880.
The attempt to provide positive momentum by the main indicators makes us prefer more bullish attempts, which might target 0.5910 barrier, where surpassing it will confirm that the price will enter a new positive pace by its rally towards 0.5945 reaching 0.6000.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.5850 and 0.5910
Stronger core inflation favours MUFG’s bearish Euro outlook, with the bank now expecting a September Fed hike and EUR/USD closing below 1.16.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate closed Friday near 1.1599, down 0.10% on the day, as stronger US core inflation reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase.
MUFG’s downside scenario points towards 1.14, approximately 1.7% below that close.
Before Friday’s inflation release, the bank outlined two possible paths: a Fed hold alongside further ECB tightening could lift EUR/USD towards 1.20, while a September Fed hike could push it towards the bottom of its 1.14-1.18 range.
“The performance of EUR/USD may increasingly hinge on the Fed’s policy response,” MUFG’s Lee Hardman said.
Core inflation strengthens the case for a hike
The August CPI release showed core prices rising 0.3% on the month, accelerating from July’s 0.2% increase and exceeding the 0.2% consensus.
Headline prices rose 0.4%, with gasoline accounting for more than a third of the increase.
Annual core inflation nevertheless eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, making this a setback in monthly momentum rather than an acceleration across every measure.
Market estimates put the probability of a September hike around 85-90% after the release.
MUFG subsequently changed its own Fed forecast:
“As a result, we now expect the Fed to hike rates by 25bps in September.”
Thursday’s ECB decision announced a quarter-point increase in the deposit rate to 2.50%, effective from 16 September, while projecting inflation above target through 2028.
That supported the argument for further European tightening explored in our earlier EUR/USD outlook.
We believe Friday’s CPI weakens the case for the Euro to benefit from an ECB tightening cycle while the Fed stands aside.
However, with a US hike already heavily anticipated, its delivery alone may offer limited additional Dollar support.
MUFG’s rates strategists acknowledge that markets have already priced in much of the expected tightening and may have gone too far.
A move towards 1.14 therefore remains conditional on how the Fed’s decision and guidance change expectations for subsequent meetings.
Euro Prices: This Week
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
+0.13%
-0.08%
-1.75%
+0.24%
+0.46%
+1.16%
+0.79%
EUR
-0.13%
-0.21%
-1.87%
+0.12%
+0.33%
+1.03%
+0.67%
GBP
+0.08%
+0.21%
-1.67%
+0.33%
+0.54%
+1.24%
+0.88%
JPY
+1.78%
+1.91%
+1.70%
+2.03%
+2.24%
+2.96%
+2.58%
CAD
-0.24%
-0.12%
-0.33%
-1.99%
+0.21%
+0.91%
+0.55%
AUD
-0.46%
-0.33%
-0.54%
-2.20%
-0.21%
+0.70%
+0.33%
NZD
-1.15%
-1.02%
-1.23%
-2.87%
-0.90%
-0.69%
-0.36%
CHF
-0.79%
-0.66%
-0.87%
-2.52%
-0.54%
-0.33%
+0.36%
The FX heat map compares how Euro (EUR) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Japanese Yen, where Euro recorded its sharpest decline. Data comparing prices today (12/09/2026 12:07 UTC) and daily close on 05/09/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
