The pair took advantage of its repeated stability above 210.40, along with the positive momentum generated by stochastic as it reached overbought territory, to form new bullish waves. This brought the price within a short distance of its target at 212.20, before it began moving sideways as this level formed an additional barrier to further upside attempts.
The 55-period moving average remains positioned above the current price, creating a conflicting technical signal that prevents confirmation of a bullish trend reversal. This leads us to favor some bearish trading, potentially targeting 210.80 and then 210.00. However, a breakout above the 55-period moving average, followed by sustained trading above it, would confirm the pair’s readiness to achieve further gains, with targets at 212.65 and 213.25, respectively.
The expected trading range for today is between 210.00 and 212.00.
The EURUSD pair declined in its latest intraday trading, continuing its attempts to gain the positive momentum needed to resume its recovery and rise again. This comes amid a short-term bullish corrective wave, with ongoing positive support from trading above EMA50, which strengthens the chances of further gains in the near term, especially as the relative strength indicators have entered deeply oversold territory compared to the pair’s price action.
The pair posted another negative close below the resistance barrier at 177.80, forming bearish waves while settling near 177.45, affected by stochastics’ attempt to exit overbought territory, allowing the pair to gather additional negative momentum in the current period.
The successful accumulation of bearish momentum reinforces our negative outlook, targeting 176.35 in the near term, reaching the next target near 175.75. However, a rise above the resistance barrier, accompanied by a positive close, would confirm the pair’s submission to the dominance of the bullish corrective trend. In this scenario, we would expect the price to pursue further gains, gradually advancing toward 178.60 and 179.40.
The expected trading range for today is between 176.35 and 177.80.
Platinum maintained its bearish positioning so far, remaining below the resistance barrier at $1740.00, confirming its readiness to resume its downward attempts as it currently edges toward $1635.00.
The formation of an additional resistance barrier at $1670.00 could increase the chances of the price gathering the negative momentum needed to reach the next bearish targets, currently located at $1555.00 and $1505.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1550.00 and $1670.00
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved higher on Tuesday after unexpectedly strong UK employment figures reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise interest rates in November.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3346, up approximately 0.3% from Tuesday’s opening levels.
Sterling found fresh support after the latest UK labour market report delivered a considerably stronger performance than economists had anticipated.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the unemployment rate fell from 4.9% to 4.7% in the three months to August, defying expectations for a broadly unchanged reading.
Employment also increased by 102,000, comfortably exceeding forecasts for a rise of just 20,000.
Wage growth provided further encouragement for Pound investors.
Regular earnings, excluding bonuses, accelerated from 3.6% to 3.7% year-on-year, suggesting that underlying pay pressures remain persistent despite earlier signs of a cooling labour market.
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The stronger figures reinforced expectations that the BoE will deliver another 25-basis-point interest rate increase at its November meeting.
With unemployment falling and wage growth remaining firm, policymakers may have less reason to delay further tightening, particularly while inflation continues to exceed the Bank’s 2% target.
The prospect of higher UK borrowing costs helped Sterling strengthen against several of its major counterparts.
The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, struggled to attract demand on Tuesday as improving market sentiment reduced appetite for traditional safe-haven currencies.
Although oil prices remained elevated and concerns persisted over the possibility of renewed escalation in the Middle East, investors showed a greater willingness to hold riskier assets.
Expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates more gradually than previously anticipated also limited support for the ‘Greenback’.
US political developments added another source of uncertainty.
Recent polling suggesting stronger support for the Democrats ahead of the mid-term elections raised questions over whether President Donald Trump could face greater opposition to his legislative agenda.
However, the Dollar’s losses remained relatively contained as investors continued to monitor geopolitical risks and the outlook for US monetary policy.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Inflation Could Extend Sterling’s Gains
Wednesday’s UK consumer price index (CPI) release will provide the next major test for the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate.
Economists expect annual headline inflation to accelerate from 3.1% to 3.4% in September, adding to concerns that price pressures remain stubbornly elevated.
Following Tuesday’s stronger employment figures, an above-forecast inflation reading would strengthen the case for another Bank of England rate increase in November.
This could allow Sterling to build on its latest gains and challenge the $1.3400 level.
However, a softer inflation reading could temper expectations for further tightening and encourage some profit-taking following the Pound’s recent recovery.
For the US Dollar, the absence of major economic releases may leave broader market sentiment as the main influence on trading.
Renewed geopolitical tensions or a deterioration in risk appetite could revive demand for the safe-haven Dollar, potentially limiting GBP/USD’s upside.
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In addition to the rising channel that suggests a potential target near the upper boundary of that pattern, crude oil broke out of a falling bullish wedge continuation pattern two weeks ago. That breakout preceded the rally to $97.17 but there has not yet been a notable pullback since the breakout. Tuesday’s price action suggests that the first pullback may have just begun. If support holds above $88.66 and is followed by renewed strength, a higher swing low would reinforce the bullish structure and increase the likelihood of another advance as the wedge breakout continues to unfold.
Upside Targets Reach Toward $120
An initial upside target zone extends from $106.89 to $109.74, where several technical indicators converge. This zone remains valid unless weakness breaks support at the 50-day moving average, now near $92.89 and rising. Beyond that zone, a rising ABCD pattern projects a potential target at $120.90, close to the March spike high of $119.54, where resistance could emerge.
USD/JPY remains stuck near key resistance at 158.00 – 158.50 as traders focus on Treasury yield dynamics. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.79% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back towards 5.12%.
In case USD/JPY declines below the 158.00 level, it will head towards the 157.00 level. A move below 157.00 will open the way to the test of the support at 155.00 – 155.50. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
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FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 82.8% probability that Fed will keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the next meeting. It looks that gold traders are focused on longer-term outlook for Fed policy. The market expects that Fed will raise the federal funds rate in December and will proceed with another rate hike in January.
Oil prices moved away from session highs amid reports indicating that U.S. and Iran were trying to reach a deal. Earlier, some reports showed that a peace deal was close, but these reports have been refuted. Lower oil prices failed to provide support to gold prices today.
Gold declines below the $4150 level and is trying to settle below $4100. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $4000 – $4020 range. A move below the $4000 level will push gold towards the $3950 level.
On the upside, gold needs to settle above the resistance at $4160 – $4180 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, gold will head towards the resistance level at $4300 – $4320.
2026.10.20 2026.10.20 US Stock Market Trends Drive the Dollar. Forecast as of 20.10.2026
Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/
Before the release of US inflation data, the currency market reacted to movements in Brent crude prices. Rising oil prices were seen as a sign of accelerating inflation and higher Fed interest rates. This strengthened the US dollar. Now things are different. Let’s discuss this topic and make a trading plan for EUR/USD.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
European assets are being sold off.
France faces a major budget challenge.
The US dollar reacts to stock market movements.
Selling EURUSD if the price fails to break above 1.128, 1.13, or 1.134 remains a relevant strategy.
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar
US Treasury yields are rising because of a strong US economy and expectations that the Fed will continue tightening monetary policy. European bond yields are rising because of protests in France and other European countries. Is there a difference? Absolutely! And this difference raises doubts about whether the EUR/USD rally can last.
The yield spread between French and German bonds has reached a two-week high and is approaching the 15-year peak recorded in early October. To keep its debt at the current level of approximately 120% of GDP, France would have to achieve something remarkable: keep its budget deficit below 2% of GDP for several consecutive years. It has not managed to do so since the 1970s.
French-German Bond Yield Spread
Source: Bloomberg.
The government aims to reduce the budget deficit to 5% of GDP by cutting spending by €43 billion. However, voters oppose these measures. People are taking to the streets to protest against the rising cost of living. The wave of discontent is spreading beyond France to Italy, Portugal, Belgium, and other eurozone countries.
Protests are slowing economic activity and boosting support for right-wing parties willing to confront the EU, potentially even leaving the currency bloc. The euro faces a double blow from slower GDP growth and rising Frexit risk. It is no surprise that European assets are being sold off so quickly. Yet EUR/USD is not falling. It is actually trying to rise! A paradox?
In fact, it is not France but the US stock market that is setting the tone in Forex. The sell-off in technology stocks during the week ending October 16 gave way to a rebound at the start of the new trading week. Investors bought the dip and started selling Treasury bonds. Why seek safe-haven assets when the Nasdaq 100 is doing well?
US Treasury Yields and the Nasdaq 100
Source: Bloomberg.
As a result, Treasury yields rose, supporting the US dollar and helping it recover. EURUSD fell. Then the Nasdaq 100 stumbled, Treasury yields followed it lower, and the euro launched another counterattack.
Oil no longer drives the foreign exchange market. US stock indices and American exceptionalism now drive the Forex market. Under normal circumstances, a decline in the S&P 500 and weaker global risk appetite would be seen as a signal to buy the US dollar as a safe-haven currency. But not today.
In my view, fears surrounding technology giants and AI bubbles are overblown. Strong corporate earnings will renew interest in AI, push the Nasdaq 100 higher, and reassure US dollar bulls.
Weekly Trading Plan for EUR/USD
Thus, a failure to break above the resistance levels of 1.128, 1.13, or 1.134 would provide an opportunity to sell EUR/USD.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
Power-sector consumption may complicate the weather relationship. Warmer conditions may reduce heating requirements while supporting cooling load in some areas, especially the Deep South. LNG exports and production can also change the amount available for storage. However, the official daily feed gas, terminal operation, or production flow series do not suggest this is going on quite yet.
Storage Report
The next EIA storage release is scheduled for Thursday and is still pending. A smaller injection, or perhaps an unexpected withdrawal, especially alongside a colder forecast revision, could strengthen the tighter-balance interpretation. But as things stand right now, continued builds and persistent warmth are weakening it.
The present evidence supports a cautious reading: a modest national buffer, an uneven regional cushion, and forecasts that restrain the case for immediate heating pressure.
