The pair’s price did not hold for long above the firm barrier at 185.80, affected by the negative US data, which forced it to postpone the bullish attack and form negative corrective waves, targeting the 184.60 level.

We highlight the importance of maintaining trading above the additional support level located at 184.20, as this would enhance the chances of the price renewing its bullish attempts by moving soon toward 185.50 and then resuming pressure on the previously mentioned barrier. However, a decline below the support and a negative close would force the price to incur additional losses, initially moving toward 183.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 184.35 and 185.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

recovers to 1.33 ahead of BoE decision, but upside may be limited. at a 2-month high on hawkish Fed hold.

GBP/USD Recovers Ahead of BoE Decision, but Upside May Be Limited

GBP/USD has recovered from the two-month low of 1.3260 reached yesterday and is trading back above 1.3300. However, the recovery could prove limited given the broader fundamental backdrop.

Comments from President Trump regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have helped pull oil prices below $75 per barrel, prompting some profit-taking in the U.S. dollar following the overnight rally sparked by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed left unchanged but removed its easing bias. In addition, nine of the 18 policymakers now expect a rate hike this year, reflecting a hawkish tilt that could continue to support the U.S. dollar.

Attention is now turning to the Bank of England rate decision, where policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting. The focus will be firmly on the vote split and any changes in the policy outlook.

The backdrop facing the BoE has shifted materially since its previous meeting. The U.S.-Iran peace agreement, falling oil prices, softer-than-expected inflation and signs of a cooling economy have all reduced pressure on policymakers to tighten policy further.

Oil prices are now around 30% below the levels seen at the previous BoE meeting, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation. Meanwhile, UK came in at 2.8%, below expectations and below March’s 3.3% peak. Inflation is also running below the Bank’s February projections, giving policymakers greater flexibility.

At the same time, growth remains weak. UK contracted by 0.1% in April and labour market conditions continue to soften, reinforcing the case for a cautious approach.

As a result, investors expect the BoE to leave rates unchanged today. The key question is whether softer inflation and weaker growth have persuaded some MPC members to abandon calls for further tightening, resulting in a more dovish vote split.

GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis

GBP/USD faced rejection at the 200-day SMA and broke below its symmetrical triangle pattern, falling to a two-month low at 1.3260. Combined with an RSI below 50, the technical picture continues to favour sellers.

Bears will look to break below 1.3260, the June low, exposing the 1.3200 support level. Below here, the 1.3000-1.3200 support zone comes into focus.

Any recovery would first need to reclaim 1.3340 before bringing the 200-day SMA at 1.3420 into focus. Above here, the 50-day SMA at 1.3475 becomes the next target. A move above 1.3500 would improve the broader outlook and bring 1.3600 into view.

DXY at a 2-Month High After a hawkish Fed Hold

The U.S. dollar rallied sharply in the previous session, reaching a two-and-a-half-month high of 100.55 after the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold.

While the dollar has eased slightly from those highs amid profit-taking and improving sentiment surrounding the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, the broader outlook remains supported by the Fed’s shift in tone.

The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% as expected and removed its easing bias. More significantly, nine of the 18 policymakers now expect a rate hike this year, highlighting growing concern over persistent inflation pressures.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has also signalled a tougher stance on inflation and launched a review of how the central bank communicates policy, marking the beginning of a potentially more hawkish era for the Fed.

Markets have now fully priced in a Fed rate increase by October, supporting Treasury yields and underpinning the U.S. dollar.

DXY Forecast – Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index has recovered from the May low at 97.60, rising to a high of 100.57. The index continues to trade above its rising trendline, as well as the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

Combined with an RSI above 50, the technical picture remains supportive of further gains.

Buyers will need to break above 100.60, a level that capped gains in March, to target 101.00 and then 102.00, the May 2025 high.

Support can be seen at 99.50, where horizontal support, the 20-day SMA and the rising trendline converge. Below here, the 50-day SMA at 99.00 and the 200-day SMA at 98.70 come into focus. A break below these levels would expose the May 2026 low at 97.60.

Original Post

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Pending Home Sales report for May. The report indicated that Pending Home Sales grew by +3.8% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +0.8%.

Better-than-expected reports provided support to the American currency. However, traders stay cautious as they wait for Fed decision and first comments from new Fed Chair Warsh.

A successful test of the resistance at 99.70 – 99.85 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range.

EUR/USD Pulls Back Ahead Of Fed Decision

BitcoinWorld

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rebound Toward 186.50 Possible as Bullish Momentum Builds

The EUR/JPY currency pair is showing signs of a potential rebound toward the 186.50 resistance level, as technical indicators point to a prevailing bullish bias in the market. Traders are closely watching key support levels and macroeconomic drivers that could influence the pair’s next move.

Technical Setup Favors Further Upside

From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY has been consolidating above the 184.00 support zone after a brief pullback earlier this week. The pair is now trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, which typically signals bullish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 58, indicating room for further upside before entering overbought territory. A decisive break above the 185.50 immediate resistance could open the door for a move toward the 186.50 level, a key psychological and technical barrier.

Fundamental Factors Supporting the Euro

The euro has been supported by improving economic data from the Eurozone, including better-than-expected industrial production figures and resilient services sector activity. The European Central Bank’s cautious stance on further rate cuts has also provided a floor for the single currency. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains under pressure as the Bank of Japan maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy, keeping interest rate differentials wide in favor of the euro.

What Traders Should Watch

Key levels to monitor include the 184.00 support zone, where buyers have stepped in multiple times this month. A break below that level could negate the bullish outlook and signal a deeper correction toward 182.50. On the upside, sustained trading above 185.50 would confirm the bullish bias and make 186.50 the next target. Traders should also watch for any unexpected policy signals from the Bank of Japan or European Central Bank that could shift sentiment rapidly.

Conclusion

The EUR/JPY outlook remains cautiously bullish in the near term, with technical and fundamental factors aligning to support a potential move toward 186.50. However, traders should remain aware of resistance levels and the risk of sudden reversals driven by central bank commentary or geopolitical developments.

FAQs

Q1: What is the key resistance level for EUR/JPY right now?
The immediate resistance is at 185.50, with a more significant barrier at 186.50. A break above 185.50 would strengthen the bullish case.

Q2: Why is the yen weak against the euro?
The yen is under pressure due to the Bank of Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy, which keeps Japanese interest rates very low compared to the Eurozone, making the euro more attractive to yield-seeking investors.

Q3: What could reverse the bullish bias in EUR/JPY?
A break below the 184.00 support level could reverse the bullish outlook. Additionally, unexpected hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan or a sharp risk-off event could trigger a yen rally.

This post EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Rebound Toward 186.50 Possible as Bullish Momentum Builds first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

The EUR/GBP exchange rate has moved sideways in the past few days as traders focus on the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decisions. It was trading at 0.8627, down from last year’s high of 0.8865. It has formed two major chart patterns, pointing to more downside.

The daily chart shows that the EUR to GBP exchange rate has pulled back in the past few months. It has retreated from a high of 0.8865 in November last year to 0.8628. 

A closer look shows that the pair has found substantial support at 0.8615, its lowest level on February 5,  March 19, and May 25. This support is part of the descending triangle pattern, whose upper side connects the highest swings in November last year and February and May this year. The descending triangle is a common continuation sign in technical analysis

The pair has also formed a small head-and-shoulders pattern, a common bearish sign. Also, it also remained below the 50-day and 200-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA).

Therefore, the pair will likely have a strong bearish breakout in the near term, potentially to the key support at 0.8545, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. 

EUR/USD chart | Source: TradingView

The EUR/GBP pair has come under pressure in the past few days as investors waited for the upcoming ECB interest rate decision. Economists polled by Reuters expect Christine Lagarde and her team to deliver the first interest rate hike of the year. 

If this happens, the bank will hike rates by 0.25% to 2.40% and the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. It will be the first time that the bank has hiked interest rates since September 2023. Also, it will be a big reversal after the bank delivered several interest rate cuts last year.

The bank’s rate hike will come as it combats the elevated inflation, which has continued rising in the past few months. Data shows that the headline CPI rose to 3.2% in May from 3.0% in the previous month. It has jumped sharply from the year-to-date low of 1.7%. Anal

The next key catalyst for the EUR/USD pair will be the upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision scheduled for Thursday. Economists expect the bank to leave interest rates unchanged in its meeting next week.

The most recent data showed that the headline Consumer Price Index retreated to 2.8% in April, helped by the ongoing government actions. Still, Polymarket traders are predicting that the bank will hike interest rates in the coming months as inflation ticks up again.