EUR/USD Forecast: Holds above 1.1600 as bulls eye 200-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair builds on last week’s bounce from the vicinity of the 1.1500 psychological mark and gains strong follow-through positive traction on Monday. The momentum lifts spot prices beyond the 1.1600 round figure during the first half of the European session and is supported by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
Traders scaled back their expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after data released last week pointed to signs of cooling inflation and a slowdown in consumer spending. This, in turn, dragged the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to an over two-month low and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices confirmed an intraday breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June decline. Moreover, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 67 and a positive, mildly rising Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint that buyers still have the upper hand. Risks of overextension might cap the EUR/USD pair near the 200-day SMA at 1.1630, and the 61.8% retracement at 1.1645 sit just overhead.
A sustained break above this band could open the way toward the 78.6% retracement at 1.1732 and ultimately the cycle high near 1.1843. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement at 1.1584 ahead of the 100-day SMA at 1.1569. A deeper pullback would expose the 38.2% Fibo. level at 1.1522 and then the 23.6% retracement at 1.1447, with the broader bullish structure only seriously threatened on a drop toward the 1.1324 swing low.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.23% | -0.10% | -0.11% | -0.10% | -0.49% | -0.46% | -0.50% | |
| EUR | 0.23% | 0.10% | 0.13% | 0.13% | -0.24% | -0.24% | -0.27% | |
| GBP | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -0.33% | -0.37% | -0.37% | |
| JPY | 0.11% | -0.13% | 0.00% | 0.01% | -0.37% | -0.34% | -0.36% | |
| CAD | 0.10% | -0.13% | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.38% | -0.36% | -0.39% | |
| AUD | 0.49% | 0.24% | 0.33% | 0.37% | 0.38% | 0.03% | -0.07% | |
| NZD | 0.46% | 0.24% | 0.37% | 0.34% | 0.36% | -0.03% | -0.03% | |
| CHF | 0.50% | 0.27% | 0.37% | 0.36% | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.03% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
