JAKARTA – Analysts have again raised their global oil price forecasts for 2026 as energy supply disruptions continue due to the Iran conflict and trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain below pre-crisis levels.

According to a Reuters survey of 33 economists and analysts, the average price of Brent crude is now expected to reach US$90.44 per barrel in 2026, up from the previous month’s forecast of US$86.38 per barrel.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is projected to average US$84.63 per barrel, higher than April’s forecast of US$80.07 per barrel.

The latest increase marks the third consecutive upward revision since the Iran conflict began in late February. Compared with forecasts before the outbreak of the war, Brent and WTI price projections for 2026 have surged by around 40%.

Since the conflict started, Brent and WTI prices briefly climbed to their highest levels in four years, exceeding US$126 and US$119 per barrel respectively, as global energy supplies were disrupted following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Nevertheless, analysts believe the likelihood of oil prices reaching new record highs remains limited.

“The possibility of prices reaching a new record this year is very low. Although we expect prices to continue rising through July, any increase will be only marginal from current elevated levels,” said Surabhi Menon of EIU India.

“This assumption is based on the expectation that the situation in Iran will remain broadly unchanged, with the ceasefire holding and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, at least until the end of July.”

Data from Kpler show that Middle Eastern crude oil exports have fallen sharply since the crisis began. Export volumes, which previously averaged 18.3 million barrels per day, have now declined to approximately 8.8 million barrels per day.

NORD/LB analyst Thomas Wybierek expects energy distribution disruptions to persist longer than initially anticipated.

“These disruptions will last longer than expected until trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz return to pre-crisis levels,” he said.

“Even in the event of a ceasefire or some form of short-term peace agreement, we do not expect seaborne oil and gas shipments in 2026 to return to previous levels.”

Most analysts forecast that the global oil market will face a supply deficit throughout 2026. Estimates of the shortfall range from 500,000 to 8 million barrels per day.

On the demand side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth next year to 1.17 million barrels per day from a previous estimate of 1.38 million barrels per day.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has gone further, forecasting that global oil demand will decline by around 420,000 barrels per day.

“From a demand perspective, headwinds are increasing due to weaker macroeconomic conditions. Higher prices, weaker trade flows and downgraded GDP forecasts are weighing on consumption growth.

In essence, the conflict is tightening supply while simultaneously slowing demand growth,” said analysts at Crisil.

Although several OPEC+ members are expected to agree to a production increase at the upcoming 7 June meeting, analysts believe additional supply will provide limited relief as long as export routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted.

“The binding constraint is not production quotas but the physical inability to move additional barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning production policy remains largely symbolic while exports continue to be disrupted,” said UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller. (DH/LM)

Downtrend Structure Points to Lower Targets

Other than the potential support zone near the uptrend line and 200-day moving average, gold is in a downtrend correction that has established a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows since it peaked in January at $5,597. The projection of that trend would lead to another test of support near the $4,091 price zone. Since it currently aligns with another long-term uptrend line, it takes on added significance as a potential support zone. However, a decisive decline below the short-term trend low of $4,366 points toward the next downside target zone near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,262. That price area will soon be joined by the rising 50-week moving average, now at $4,229.

Conditions for Stabilization or Reversal

Despite the potential for a bearish continuation, key support has held so far, and it may continue to do so, which would instead open the door to a corrective bounce and potential bullish reversal signals. That could result in a bounce and eventual bullish reversal signals. Gold has been falling since the lower swing high of $4,891 was established in April. But the decline has been relatively slow, with ongoing signs of consolidation rather than impulsive selling.

Short-Term Resistance Levels Define Recovery Threshold

Strength would first be indicated on a rally above Wednesday’s high but with little conviction. That leaves the three-day high of $4,546 as a short-term resistance that might provide an early warning for a potential breakout above the lower swing high of $4,595, which would represent a more meaningful bullish confirmation as it would also coincide with a reclaim of the 20-day moving average.

Copper price continued forming bullish waves, achieving clear gains by reaching $6.6300 level, facing the recently achieved historical top to settle near it.

Note that the positive factors that are represented by forming extra support at $6.2500 level, and providing positive momentum by the main indicators, which makes us keep the bullish scenario, to expect targeting new historical stations that might begin at $6.7400 reaching $6.9400.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.4700 and $6.7400

Trend forecast: Bullish

Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market in the morning trading session of June 3, 2026 recorded a positive recovery momentum after a series of previous downward adjustments. According to survey data in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the bulk purchase price simultaneously increased slightly from 500 to 600 VND per kg, bringing the regional average price level to the threshold of 87,200 VND per kg.

In Dak Nong province (old), the purchase price increased by 600 VND, to 87,300 VND per kg, continuing to maintain the highest position in the region.

In Dak Lak and Gia Lai, prices both recorded an increase of 500 VND, currently trading stably at the threshold of 87,200 VND per kg.

Meanwhile, the Lam Dong area listed a price of 86,700 VND per kg after increasing by 500 VND compared to the previous session.

In other items, pepper prices remained unchanged at the threshold of 139,000 VND per kg, especially the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank recorded at 26,092 VND.

World coffee prices

Developments on international futures exchanges in the nearest closing session continued to witness clear differentiation between the two exchanges.

On the London exchange, Robusta futures for July 2026 delivery continued to maintain green with an increase of 24 USD, equivalent to 0.70%, closing the session at 3,462 USD per ton.

Conversely, the New York exchange recorded Arabica futures for July 2026 delivery down 1.40 cents, equivalent to 0.54%, falling to 259.20 cents per pound. Pressure on Arabica prices mainly comes from a drier weather forecast in Brazil this week, a factor expected to support the resumption of harvesting after a period of interruption due to heavy rain.

Coffee price assessment and forecast

World coffee prices closed in opposite directions on Tuesday, with Arabica prices falling to the lowest level of the nearest contract in 1.5 years.

The coffee market is entering a period of fierce tug-of-war between fundamental factors.

On the one hand, pressure from global supply prospects is weighing heavily on speculators’ sentiment. Reputable organizations such as Coffee Trading Academy forecast that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production will increase sharply by 12% over the same period, reaching the threshold of 71.4 million bags, while StoneX forecasts that the global surplus in 2026 may reach 10 million bags.

Coffee exports from our country in the first 4 months of this year increased by 15.8%, which is also a factor putting negative pressure on Robusta prices.

However, the long-term picture still contains many risks for the selling side. Concerns about the El Niño weather phenomenon that is likely to turn into a “Super El Niño” spell later this year, combined with prolonged drought, are directly threatening Brazil’s 2026/27 crop harvest.

At the same time, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to push up transportation costs, insurance and fertilizers, increasing costs for roasters around the globe, thereby maintaining pressure to tighten the actual supply.

In the near future, coffee prices are likely to continue to fluctuate strongly according to weather developments in Brazil. If harvesting conditions in South America are really favorable in June, prices may be under adjustment pressure.

Conversely, if the drought situation in Vietnam continues to prolong, Robusta prices on the London exchange have every opportunity to maintain their upward momentum or break through if inventories continue to maintain at a record low.

• The Overall Gold Trend: Remains in a bearish bias.

• Today’s Gold Support Points: $4455 – $4420 – $4360 per ounce.

• Today’s Gold Resistance Points: $4540 – $4580 – $4640 per ounce.

Today’s Gold Trading Signals:

• Bullish Scenario: Buy Gold from the support level of $4,410 with a target of $4,600 and a stop loss at $4,370.

• Bearish Scenario: Sell Gold from the resistance level of $4,610 with a target of $4,450 and a stop loss at $4,670.

Note: These recommendations are suitable for medium-to-long-term traders, provided there is strict adherence to capital and risk management

Daily Technical Analysis of Gold/US Dollar (XAU/USD):

During yesterday’s trading session, gold prices remained under selling pressure every time they attempted to rebound. The strength of the US dollar, rising oil prices, and increasing pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy continue to dampen investor appetite for the precious metal. According to top gold trading platforms, gold prices declined from a high of $4,541 per ounce during the session to a support level of $4,463 per ounce at the time of writing.

Gold Selling Scenario Remains the Strongest

According to the technical outlook, the stability of gold prices around and below the support level of $4,500 per ounce will continue to support the sellers’ dominance over the trend. The movement of technical indicators is in a negative bias so far. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral line. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is below the 200-day SMA, and the MACD indicator joins the technical indicators confirming the bearish bias, signaling a stronger downward move until reaching oversold territories.

Via the best trading platforms, and over the past three weeks, gold traded neutrally within a narrow range amid uncertainty surrounding a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran, as its movements were mostly driven by circulating news.

As is well known, gold, which yields no return, is considered more attractive to investors when interest rates are low. However, this scenario seems unlikely as long as the war continues, as central banks will be more inclined to keep interest rates high to combat inflationary pressures.

Global Banks’ Gold Reserves

In this regard, and according to the European Central Bank (ECB), this was the percentage of gold in foreign reserves held by central banks around the world by the end of 2025. The share of gold exceeded the share of US Treasuries (22%) and the euro’s share (15%). Other dollar-denominated reserves accounted for 20%.

Mainly, this percentage had risen from 20% in the previous year, due to the rise in gold prices, rather than central bank purchases of bullion.

After years of overbuying, these banks’ appetite for increasing their gold holdings has waned as the price of the precious metal has risen (gold has increased by more than a third in the past twelve months).

Some banks have already begun reducing their holdings. At the beginning of this year, Turkey sold or lent a significant amount of gold to defend its currency following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, according to the European Central Bank.

Gold Forecast in the Coming Months

Despite gold’s weakness in recent months, many gold market experts expect the price of the yellow metal to rise by the end of 2026, with banks like JPMorgan forecasting an average price of $5,000 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs has set a target at $5,400 per ounce.

Generally, gold was on track to achieve or exceed those targets after a strong start to the year, hitting a record high of around $5,600 per ounce in January.

However, geopolitical tensions took a toll on the outlook for another strong year similar to 2025, when prices surged by 60%. So far in 2026, the price of gold has risen by 4.5%.

Conclusion:

Obviously, the gold market will remain under selling pressure. Therefore, the prices will continue to experience continuous volatility if the factors currently affecting the markets remain without a radical change.

Trading Advice:

Dear Traders Up trader, despite the dominance of selling pressure in the short term, some long-term investors prefer gradual buying on dips. Strictly, it is essential to adhere to capital management and set stop-loss levels to mitigate risks.

Ready to trade today’s Gold prediction? Here’s a list of some of the best XAU/USD brokers to check out.