London, May 9, 2026, 10:40 (BST)

Oil prices managed a bounce on Friday but still wrapped up the week in the red, with traders eyeing U.S.-Iran diplomacy more than the usual supply reports as violence flares near the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude, the international standard, settled at $101.29 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed at $95.42. Both benchmarks slid over 6% for the week. “The market is hung between a breakthrough in negotiations and a renewal of the fighting,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital. Reuters

The market’s not just moving with the usual supply swings anymore. China’s crude imports tumbled 20% in April, sliding to 38.5 million metric tons—the lowest mark since July 2022—after the Hormuz shutdown tightened flows to the top oil buyer, according to customs figures.

Bulls got a bit of a lift from fresh U.S. weekly figures, yet the war premium stuck around. The Energy Information Administration reported commercial crude stocks, not counting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, dropped 2.3 million barrels to 457.2 million for the week ended May 1. Gasoline and distillate inventories also moved lower.

Citi didn’t budge on its short-term Brent call, holding the zero-to-three-month target at $120 a barrel. The bank projects the benchmark will average $110 through the second quarter, sliding to $95 in the third and $80 in the fourth. According to Citi, the market may be shrugging off how persistent or severe the disruption could be, warning traders are “under-pricing duration and tail risks.” Reuters

The U.S. government isn’t calling for fireworks, but there’s a catch baked in. According to the EIA’s April outlook, Brent tops out at $115 a barrel in Q2, then slides under $90 in Q4. All of it hinges, though, on how long the Middle East conflict drags on and how much supply actually goes offline.

OPEC+ is making a point to the market: it has the power to boost supply, even if those promised extra barrels won’t hit the market right away. The group signed off on a 188,000-barrel-per-day quota hike for June, but analysts caution the real-world impact looks minor as Gulf exports are still tight. “Physical supply remains very limited,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad and former OPEC official. OPEC+, he added, wants to remind everyone it “still calls the shots.” Reuters

Signals out of U.S. shale remain conflicted. Baker Hughes reported a third consecutive weekly increase in oil and gas rigs, ticking up by one to 548—the highest since early April. Even so, that’s 30 fewer rigs than this time last year, highlighting that rising prices aren’t translating into immediate production gains.

Big swings in risk are turning up in corporate hedging moves. Diamondback Energy has snapped up close to $70 million in options riding on the WTI-Brent spread—the difference between U.S. crude and international oil prices—in a bet that stands to gain if U.S. oil exports face curbs and domestic crude drops. Tim Skirrow, who heads derivatives at Energy Aspects, called the deal a sign of “risk of a U.S. crude export ban.” Reuters

On the demand front, the International Energy Agency in April projected that oil demand would shrink by 80,000 barrels per day this year as the Iran war reshaped its view. The agency cautioned that if tight supplies and elevated prices stick around, “demand destruction will spread.” IEA

Still, the risk runs both ways. A lasting ceasefire, tankers once again flowing smoothly through Hormuz, tepid Chinese demand, and draws from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve could all keep a lid on prices. But if negotiations break down and shipping snarls persist, Brent hovering close to $100 might end up being less a barrier and more a launchpad.

This week, oil prices look set to move on headlines rather than the usual inventory calculus. Brent’s underpinned by stubbornly tight physical supply and thinning product stocks. WTI, though, gets dragged by added uncertainty over U.S. export policy. The market’s got a bit of relief in the mix. Patience? Not much of that priced in.

The EURJPY pair reached %23.6 Fibonacci correction level at 182.00, to form strong support to provide chances for recovering some losses by its rally near 183.70 level.

In general, the bearish scenario will remain valid depending on forming main barrier by 185.45 level against the current trading, which makes us wait for gathering negative momentum, which allows it to renew the negative attempts that might target 182.80 level, to attempt to renew the pressure on 182.00 support, while breaching the main barrier and holding above it will confirm its move to a positive station, to begin targeting several positive stations by its rally towards 186.00 and 186.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 182.80 and 184.30

Trend forecast: Bearish

• Silver has rallied quite nicely during the trading session on Thursday as interest rates have dropped.

• Ultimately, this is a very good sign, and I think eventually silver could go looking to the $90 level.

That being said, there are a couple of things that you just simply must pay attention to here because it could make a major difference on what your account sees next. Quite frankly, we have the United States and Iran getting closer to peace, but if that falls apart, that will make rates rise and that will be bad for the XAG/USD pair.

Geopolitical Influence and Technical Resistance

Furthermore, Friday is non-farm payroll in the United States, so that obviously has a part to play in how things turn out in the interest rate market as well. So while this is a very bullish looking market in the short term, it’s also worth noting that we’re at a very dangerous crossroads.

The $82.50 region was a swing high back on April 17 and that’s where we find ourselves now. Because of this, I am a little hesitant to get too aggressive, but I also recognize that we have a situation where eventually we have to resolve whether or not the uptrend can continue.

As things stand right now, I do think it happens but we’ll more likely than not get some type of pullback. I’ll be looking at that pullback as a potential buying opportunity. I’ve got no interest in shorting silver.

I think there’s a hard floor at 70 and we could very well find ourselves in a situation where we just bang around between $70 and $90 longer term with more of an upward tilt because there is a supply constraint out there that can’t be ignored. Regardless, we’re probably one bad headline away from getting a lot of volatility, so size accordingly.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.