Short-Term Pullback Risk and Support Levels

In the short-term, however, a pullback to test prior resistance as support – the first pullback after the breakout – is a risk. A first, more significant upside target at 127.2.% extension of the prior pullback is at $4,516. That is essentially a match to the high for the week to date, especially given a mild bearish reaction that followed Wednesday’s high. The prior high of $4,381, along with the 10-day average, now at $4,360 and rising, presents a first more significant potential support zone. A bullish reversal ending a pullback higher than $4,381, would suggest sustained strong support.

Current Advance Could Be Early in Larger Leg Up

When considering prior upswings in the price of gold, the current eight-week advance may still be early in the current leg up that began from the October swing low, given gains seen since then. Out of the four prior new trend highs sustained since 2024, time ranges are indicated at 5 and 6 weeks, and then at 11 and 12 weeks. Keep in mind that the first week of a new high breakout has yet to complete. This leaves potential in time and price.

Momentum Strength and Next Upside Targets

In addition to the rising slope of the bull trend, strong bullish momentum is indicated by a successful second breakout through the top of a rising trend channel. This confirms strength in the current advance. At the same time, it shows the price becoming further extended. Nevertheless, the potential for a continuation of the trend with a higher rate of change is suggested by the pattern. The next upside target for gold is at the 161.8% projection of a rising ABCD pattern. Further up is a large confluence zone starting at $4,664 and up to $4,713.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

December 25, 2025 — Energy stocks are heading into 2026 with a rare mix of forces pulling in opposite directions: bearish oil-price forecasts tied to oversupply, winter-driven natural gas volatility, and fresh geopolitical and sanctions-related headlines that can swing sentiment fast—even during holiday-thinned trading.

On the commodity side, oil ended the latest session near the low-$60s (Brent) and high-$50s (WTI), with year-end commentary increasingly focused on a 2026 surplus narrative. ^[1] But on the headlines side, developments involving Venezuela, Russia, and European sanctions are keeping risk discussions alive—especially in LNG and shipping-linked names. ^[2]

Below is what matters most for investors tracking energy stocks—from integrated oil majors and E&Ps to pipelines, refiners, oilfield services, LNG exporters, and gas-heavy producers—based on news and analysis dated Dec. 25, 2025 and the latest major forecasts available as of today.

Oil sets the baseline for energy stocks—and the baseline is weakening

Even with market activity muted around Christmas, oil’s “signal” for equity investors remains clear: prices are still struggling, and multiple forecasters expect the market to remain well supplied next year.

Recent pricing context:

• Brent crude was last around $61–$62 per barrel and WTI around $58 per barrel in the latest reported settlement window. ^[3]
• Regional equity markets tied closely to oil also reflected softer tone, with commentary pointing to oil’s weak 2025 performance and pressure on sentiment. ^[4]

For energy stocks, this matters because upstream cash flows (especially unhedged shale producers and international E&Ps) are still strongly linked to crude benchmarks. But the market is also showing that equities don’t always mirror barrels—and 2025 is becoming the textbook example.

Barron’s highlighted that despite a steep 2025 drop in WTI, energy stocks held up better than many expected, helped by shareholder returns and cost discipline among large producers. ^[5]

Takeaway: Oil is not screaming “boom,” but equity resilience is real—especially where dividends, buybacks, and diversified earnings streams soften the blow.

The 2026 oil price forecast picture: EIA points lower, Wall Street clusters in the mid-$50s

The most-cited anchor forecast in U.S. markets remains the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

In its December 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast:

• Brent spot average ~ $55.08/bbl in 2026
• WTI spot average ~ $51.42/bbl in 2026
• A backdrop of rising global inventories, with inventory builds expected to exceed 2 million barrels/day in 2026 ^[6]

EIA also expects OPEC+ to undershoot targets (in effect tightening relative to headline quotas), forecasting OPEC+ output about 1.3 million b/d less than targeted production in 2026, alongside continued Chinese stock-building that can dampen near-term downside. ^[7]

On the bank side, Reuters reported Goldman Sachs projecting lower oil prices in 2026, with Brent averaging $56/bbl and WTI $52/bbl, unless major supply shocks or deeper OPEC cuts change the equation. ^[8]

What this means for energy stocks:
A mid-$50s Brent world doesn’t automatically crush energy equities—especially if producers maintain:

• low reinvestment rates,
• steady buybacks/dividends,
• and balance sheet restraint.

But it does raise the bar: companies must out-execute rather than rely on price tailwinds.

Geopolitics isn’t “gone”—it’s just competing with oversupply

Dec. 25’s headlines underscored a key nuance: even if the oil market is structurally well supplied, political disruption risk still exists, and it tends to matter most at the margins—shipping, sanctions compliance, and regional supply chains.

Venezuela: blockade rhetoric raises “tail risk” talk

Russia compared a reported U.S.-ordered “quarantine” of Venezuelan waters to “piracy,” a reminder that even a small probability of disruption can influence short-dated pricing and sentiment in oil-sensitive names. ^[9]

Serbia’s NIS: sanctions show how quickly operational reality can change

Reuters reported Serbia backing talks involving Hungary’s MOL and Russian stakeholders over NIS, a sanctioned Serbian oil firm. The story highlighted that while OFAC reportedly allowed negotiations until March 24, the firm still lacked an operating license to buy and refine crude, contributing to a refinery shutdown dynamic. ^[10]

Equity implication: Refiners, regional distributors, and logistics-linked players can see outsized effects from sanctions mechanics—even when global benchmark prices are calm.

LNG is the energy stocks “second act,” and Russia just signaled delays

If oil is the baseline, LNG is increasingly the growth (and geopolitics) story—especially for gas producers, exporters, and midstream names tied to liquefaction and pipelines.

On Dec. 25, Reuters reported Russia delaying its target of producing 100 million tons/year of LNG by “several years” due to sanctions, with revised strategy numbers pointing to 90–105 million tons by 2030 and up to 130 million tons by 2036. ^[11]

At the same time, gas flows to Asia remain central. Reuters reported Gazprom saying gas supplies to China would reach 38.8 bcm in 2025—about 1 bcm above contractual obligations—and are expected to rise to 40 bcm in 2026. ^[12]

Why this matters for energy stocks:

• LNG delays for one major supplier can reshape expectations for global LNG balances, shipping rates, and the negotiating power of alternative suppliers.
• Pipeline gas commitments (like Russia-to-China volumes) influence long-term demand expectations, which feeds into valuation narratives for LNG-linked projects elsewhere.

Natural gas volatility: storage draws, winter demand, and an EIA forecast reset

While oil has been sliding, U.S. natural gas has been the more volatile energy tape—especially with winter weather and storage expectations driving sharp moves.

An Investing.com market note published today pointed to a forecast -158 Bcf storage withdrawal (week ending Dec. 19), which would push inventories to 3,420 Bcf, described as below both the prior year and five-year average benchmarks cited in the analysis. ^[13]

Meanwhile, the EIA’s STEO raised its winter gas view:

• Henry Hub forecast to average almost $4.30/MMBtu this winter (Nov–Mar), citing colder-than-expected December weather
• Henry Hub forecast around $4.01/MMBtu on average in 2026 ^[14]

And despite a lower rig count trend, Reuters reported Baker Hughes data showing U.S. energy firms added rigs in the week ending Dec. 23 (released early for the holiday), with oil rigs at 409 and total rigs at 545. ^[15]

Equity implication: Gas-heavy producers can outperform even in a weak-oil year when:

• winter demand tightens balances,
• LNG export growth supports structural demand,
• and supply discipline (or infrastructure constraints) amplifies price response.

But the risk cuts both ways—weather shifts can reverse pricing quickly.

Refining and product markets: China keeps export quotas steady for 2026

For refiners and integrated majors, the downstream side can sometimes offset weaker crude—especially when product markets are tight.

On Dec. 25, Reuters reported China issued its first batch of 2026 refined fuel export quotas:

• 19 million tons for gasoline/diesel/jet fuel exports
• 8 million tons for low-sulfur marine fuel
  The report also noted China’s refined product exports in the first eleven months of 2025 at 52.65 million tons, down 3.2% year over year. ^[16]

Separately, EIA’s STEO flagged that refining margins have been influenced by constrained global refinery production and sanctions-related trade shifts, while still expecting supportive margin dynamics into 2026 compared to 2025 (with uncertainty). ^[17]

Why investors care:
China’s quota policy affects Asia’s product flows, which can ripple into:

• global diesel/gasoline cracks,
• refinery utilization decisions,
• and earnings power for refiners and integrated majors.

So where do energy stocks fit in 2026? A practical sector map

Energy stocks rarely move as one group for long. Here’s how today’s news-and-forecast mix tends to sort the subsectors:

Integrated majors: “duration” plus buybacks

Majors often fare better in weak crude periods because they combine upstream earnings with refining/marketing and trading. The 2025 pattern of oil prices falling while large energy equities held up has been linked to cost discipline, buybacks, and dividend support in market commentary. ^[18]

Upstream E&Ps: quality and balance sheets matter more in a $50–$55 world

If EIA’s ~$51 WTI 2026 average holds, the winners are usually those with:

• lower breakevens,
• flexible capex,
• and hedging strategies that don’t cap upside excessively. ^[19]

Midstream and LNG infrastructure: volume narratives can beat price narratives

LNG delays in Russia and continued Asia demand signals keep infrastructure optionality valuable, even if commodity prices are soft. ^[20]

Refiners: watch product exports and policy

China’s steady quotas and EIA’s margin discussion reinforce that refiners can still have earnings power even when crude is weak—depending on product tightness and regional outages. ^[21]

Oilfield services: late-cycle sensitivity

Rig counts and upstream budget restraint can pressure pricing for drill-bit-exposed services, even if production stays high due to efficiency. ^[22]

Power and “energy-adjacent” beneficiaries: data centers push demand growth

EIA expects U.S. electricity generation growth to continue into 2026, driven in part by large loads like data centers, concentrated in regions such as ERCOT and PJM. ^[23]
That matters for gas demand, grid investment, and firms tied to power infrastructure.

The 5 catalysts energy stock investors are watching next

1. Inventory reality vs. forecast narrative
   EIA’s projected inventory builds (and the market’s willingness to store barrels) will heavily influence price expectations. ^[24]
2. OPEC+ policy execution
   The difference between headline targets and realized output can tighten or loosen balances more than headlines suggest. ^[25]
3. Sanctions enforcement and shipping friction
   Venezuela and Russia-related headlines can create sharp, short-lived risk premiums—especially in thin liquidity. ^[26]
4. Natural gas storage and winter weather
   Storage withdrawals and shifting degree-day forecasts can reprice gas quickly, impacting gas-heavy equities. ^[27]
5. China’s product and crude flow management
   Export quotas and stockpiling behavior influence global refining and crude balances, affecting both upstream and downstream names. ^[28]

Bottom line: Energy stocks are entering 2026 in “cash-flow mode,” not “commodity boom mode”

As of Dec. 25, 2025, the dominant setup for energy equities looks like this:

• Oil: bearish-to-neutral on forecasts (EIA ~$51 WTI / ~$55 Brent for 2026) ^[29]
• Gas: structurally supported by LNG growth but tactically dominated by winter volatility ^[30]
• Geopolitics: not pricing like 2022-era panic, but still capable of sudden shocks ^[31]
• Stocks: increasingly judged on capital discipline, dividends, buybacks, and resilience—rather than pure commodity beta ^[32]

For investors, that means 2026 is likely to reward selectivity: the companies that can defend margins and returns in a mid-cycle price environment may continue to outperform—even if the barrel itself stays under pressure.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. www.eia.gov, 7. www.eia.gov, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.eia.gov, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.eia.gov, 18. www.barrons.com, 19. www.eia.gov, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.eia.gov, 24. www.eia.gov, 25. www.eia.gov, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.eia.gov, 30. www.eia.gov, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.barrons.com

December 25, 2025 — Silver prices are pausing near historic highs on Christmas Day, after a blistering year-end rally pushed spot silver into fresh record territory. With many major financial markets shut or running on holiday-thin liquidity, today’s price action is less about fresh positioning and more about consolidation — but the bigger story is that silver has entered what several analysts describe as “price discovery” after breaking multi-year resistance and posting one of its strongest years on record. ^[1]

Silver price today: where XAG/USD stands on 25.12.2025

Spot silver was around $71.9 per ounce on December 25, 2025, according to TradingEconomics, effectively flat on the day and just below the latest all-time highs logged this week. ^[2]

That “just below” matters: Reuters reported silver hit an all-time high near $72.70 before easing back toward $71.94 in a modest pullback described as profit-taking after a record run. ^[3]

Futures snapshots tell a similar holiday story. Investing.com listed silver futures around $71.875 with volume shown as 0—a reminder that Christmas conditions can freeze normal trading and make “today’s” levels look static until liquidity returns. ^[4]

Why silver is consolidating now — and why the rally happened in the first place

1) Rate-cut expectations are the core tailwind

The dominant macro driver behind precious metals’ year-end surge has been the market’s conviction that U.S. monetary policy will keep easing. Reuters noted the Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2025, and traders were pricing two more cuts next year—a classic supportive backdrop for non-yielding assets like gold and silver. ^[5]

Other Reuters reporting through the week echoed the same theme: softer labor and inflation signals bolstered the case for additional rate cuts, while analysts highlighted that silver has been “leading” gold at points during the rally. ^[6]

2) The U.S. dollar’s slump amplified the move

A weaker dollar typically makes dollar-priced commodities more attractive to non-U.S. buyers. Reuters described the dollar as having slumped significantly in 2025, helping to power the precious-metals surge. ^[7]

3) Geopolitical risk kept “safe-haven” demand alive

Silver is unusual because it straddles two roles: a precious metal with safe-haven appeal and a critical industrial input. Reuters coverage tied the precious-metals rally to rising geopolitical tensions and trade-related uncertainty, including developments linked to Venezuela. ^[8]

4) The real differentiator: a multi-year physical deficit and tightening inventories

Multiple analysts point to the same structural issue underneath the rally: silver has been running a deficit for years, and physical tightness has become harder to ignore as prices climb.

• Reuters quoted strategists describing a market that has been in deficit for five years, with rising industrial demand reinforcing the squeeze. ^[9]
• The Silver Institute (citing Metals Focus) estimated the 2025 deficit at about 95 million ounces, marking the fifth successive deficit, with a large cumulative shortfall across 2021–2025. ^[10]

In a market like silver — smaller than gold and increasingly demanded by industry — persistent deficits can create the kind of “air pocket” dynamics that turn rallies into breakouts.

Industrial demand is no longer a side story — it’s the main plot

Silver’s industrial profile is central to the bullish thesis because it links the metal to long-duration themes like electrification and data infrastructure.

ING emphasized that industrial demand accounts for more than half of total silver consumption, and while solar growth may slow after peak installation years in China, demand tailwinds remain from electrification, grid upgrades, and increased silver content in automotive components (including hybrids and EVs). ^[11]

IG’s 2026 outlook went further, arguing demand remains broad-based across solar, EVs, semiconductors, 5G, and AI-related power infrastructure, while also highlighting how hard substitution can be in performance-sensitive applications. ^[12]

Reuters also framed silver’s “perfect storm” as a blend of investment demand and the industrial pull from AI data centers, solar, and EVs, with momentum buying layered on top. ^[13]

The “flow” problem: China, London, and tariff fears

Holiday sessions hide volatility — but they don’t remove the deeper plumbing issues that can whip silver around when markets reopen.

ING flagged a set of conditions that help explain why silver can spike or gap more aggressively than gold:

• Chinese exchange-linked stockpiles falling toward multi-year lows
• Record Chinese silver exports (ING cited October exports above 660 tonnes)
• Elevated lease rates in London (around 6%, per ING), even after large inflows
• A lingering risk that silver could be caught up in tariff policy, especially after being added to a U.S. “critical minerals” context that could raise the odds of import restrictions ^[14]

Reuters reporting earlier in the month also linked tariff concerns to physical dislocations and liquidity stress in the London spot market, reinforcing the idea that silver’s rally is not purely “paper-driven.” ^[15]

2026 silver price forecasts: what major analysts are actually projecting

Forecasts for silver in 2026 are wide — and that dispersion is itself a signal. Silver is historically volatile, and analysts are splitting into two camps: “bank-base-case” pricing and “breakout-extension” pricing.

Bank/strategy forecasts cluster around the mid-to-high $50s (with upside cases)

• Reuters reported Macquarie strategists expect silver to average about $57 per ounce in 2026, citing supply-demand deficits and strong import demand dynamics. ^[16]
• IG’s 2026 outlook said the average of major banks places silver in the $56–$65 range for 2026, describing that as the conservative view. ^[17]

This is a critical takeaway for readers: even relatively “measured” forecasts still imply silver stays far above the levels that defined most of the pre-breakout decade.

Bullish strategist targets converge around $75 (and sometimes higher)

Several market professionals quoted in Reuters pointed to $75 as a psychologically and technically important milestone:

• Reuters cited Jim Wyckoff (Kitco) pointing to $75/oz as a next upside objective into year-end, while noting technicals remained bullish. ^[18]
• In another Reuters report, a WisdomTree strategist said silver could gain to close to $75/oz by the end of next year (i.e., end of 2026). ^[19]
• Reuters also quoted commentary warning that year-end profit-taking could still trigger pullbacks even in a bullish trend. ^[20]

“Technical extension” scenarios: $72–$88 becomes the map if the breakout holds

IG outlined a more technical pathway: once silver cleared the long-term ceiling and held above it, the next measured-move extensions in their framework pointed to $72 and $88. ^[21]

One nuance here is timing: silver is already flirting with the low-$70s zone now. That means the “$72” area is no longer a distant projection — it’s becoming a near-term battleground where traders will judge whether the breakout is consolidating or exhausting.

Gold-silver ratio: the “relative value” signal traders keep watching

Silver’s outperformance has also shown up in the gold-silver ratio, a long-followed measure of how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.

Reuters reported the gold-silver ratio narrowed to around 64 from about 105 in April, reflecting how aggressively silver has caught up during the year-end sprint. ^[22]

IG noted that long-run historical averages are often discussed in the 40–60 zone, and argued that further compression would imply additional relative strength for silver — even if gold prices merely hold steady. ^[23]

Technical and short-term analysis for Dec. 25: key levels traders are citing

Because today is holiday-thinned, most technical notes are anchored to the last “normal” session’s close and framed as setups for when markets reopen.

• FXEmpire described silver holding near $71.85, after a pullback from just under $73.80, with an important support zone near $70.20 (and a deeper risk point around the high-$60s). It also noted momentum cooling — more consistent with consolidation than an immediate trend break. ^[24]
• FXLeaders similarly framed silver near $71.85, calling attention to support levels around $70.75 and $69.55 in holiday conditions where volume is thin. ^[25]

From a news-reader standpoint, the technical message is straightforward: the uptrend remains intact above the low-$70s/high-$60s supports, but the market is extended enough that sharp pullbacks are possible — especially once liquidity returns and year-end portfolio rebalancing resumes.

A quick note on India’s silver market (MCX): bullish breakout language dominates

India is a key demand center for physical silver, and local-market commentary has turned increasingly bullish.

The Times of India highlighted analyst commentary pointing to a breakout structure in MCX Silver, with support near 215,000 and an upside target around 240,000 (pricing in rupees terms on the exchange). ^[26]

Even for global readers who don’t trade MCX, this matters because India’s import demand and retail participation can influence physical flows — a theme Reuters has also referenced in discussing drivers of silver’s record highs. ^[27]

What could move silver next: 5 catalysts to watch after the holiday

1. Fed repricing: If markets reduce expectations for 2026 cuts, silver can drop fast. If cuts look more likely, the rally can re-accelerate. ^[28]
2. Dollar direction: A renewed dollar decline tends to support metals; a sharp dollar rebound can cap upside. ^[29]
3. Geopolitics and trade policy: Venezuela-linked headlines and broader tariff uncertainty have already been cited as tailwinds for safe-haven demand. ^[30]
4. Physical tightness signals: Watch inventories, lease rates, and cross-region flows (London–U.S.–China). ING’s work suggests this “plumbing” can matter as much as macro. ^[31]
5. Industrial demand prints: Solar, grid, EV, and AI data-center buildouts remain key demand narratives — but any evidence of a sharper slowdown could hit sentiment given silver’s industrial exposure. ^[32]

Bottom line: Silver’s 2025 breakout is real — but the ride into 2026 is likely to stay wild

As of December 25, 2025, silver is consolidating near $72/oz, after printing fresh records and capping a year defined by falling-rate expectations, a weaker dollar, geopolitical risk, and a widely cited multi-year supply deficit. ^[33]

For 2026, mainstream forecasts cluster around the mid-to-high $50s on average (with upside cases), while several strategists continue to flag $75 as a plausible milestone if macro tailwinds and physical tightness persist. ^[34]

The caution is embedded in the same story: silver’s market structure and dual-demand profile make it prone to steep corrections, especially when positioning gets crowded — meaning the next leg up, if it comes, may not be a straight line. ^[35]

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

References

1. tradingeconomics.com, 2. tradingeconomics.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. silverinstitute.org, 11. think.ing.com, 12. www.ig.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. think.ing.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.ig.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.ig.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.ig.com, 24. www.fxempire.com, 25. www.fxleaders.com, 26. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. think.ing.com, 32. think.ing.com, 33. tradingeconomics.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com

December 25, 2025 — Gold is entering the Christmas break near historic highs after a dramatic late‑year surge that pushed the metal through the psychological $4,500 per ounce level and up to fresh records earlier this week. In holiday-thinned conditions, spot gold has been hovering around the mid‑$4,400s to ~$4,480, following an intraday record near $4,525 set during Christmas Eve trading. ^[1]

The bigger story, however, is not just “gold price today” — it’s why the rally has been so relentless into year-end, and what major banks and market strategists think happens next in 2026, with forecasts clustering from the low‑$4,000s to $5,000+ depending on interest rates, the U.S. dollar, geopolitics, and the pace of central‑bank and ETF buying. ^[2]

Gold price today: where XAU/USD stands on Dec. 25

Gold trading is typically quieter around Christmas, and this year is no exception: liquidity has been thin and the market is pausing after a powerful run. Spot gold was last reported around $4,479 in the final active session before Christmas Day, after touching a record near $4,525 earlier in the day; U.S. gold futures were also around $4,481 in that session. ^[3]

Several market updates published on Dec. 25 describe gold as “steady” or “stabilizing” after the breakout above $4,500, with traders starting to lock in gains as the year closes. ^[4]

What’s driving the gold rally into year-end?

Gold’s late‑2025 rally is being powered by a rare alignment of macro and structural forces — some of which are cyclical (rates, the dollar), and some of which look longer‑lasting (central bank diversification, ETF flows, and a broadened investor base).

1) Rate-cut expectations and the “lower yields” tailwind

Gold tends to benefit when markets expect easier monetary policy, because bullion doesn’t pay interest — so falling yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding it. Reuters reporting this week highlighted that markets have been pricing in additional U.S. rate cuts in 2026, supporting gold’s appeal. ^[5]

2) A weaker U.S. dollar

A softer dollar can mechanically support gold (priced in dollars) by making it cheaper for non‑U.S. buyers. Reuters has noted the dollar’s notable decline in 2025 and the view among many investors that weakness could extend into 2026 — one reason precious metals demand has remained strong into the holiday period. ^[6]

3) Geopolitics and “safe-haven” demand

Safe‑haven buying has been repeatedly cited as a catalyst in the latest leg higher, including tensions linked to the Middle East, uncertainty around Ukraine‑Russia dynamics, and the recent focus on U.S. actions tied to Venezuelan tankers. ^[7]

4) Policy uncertainty and tariffs

Beyond day‑to‑day headlines, broader policy uncertainty has become part of the gold narrative. Financial Times’ year‑in‑review framing points to tariff turmoil and market instability as major themes of 2025, with gold a standout beneficiary amid a “gold rush” driven by central banks and retail investors. ^[8]

The structural engine: central banks and ETF inflows

If rate expectations and geopolitics explain the timing of the latest surge, the foundation of this bull market is increasingly described as structural.

Central banks: still buying, still diversifying

Reuters reporting on the year-end rally cited Metals Focus estimates that central banks are on track to buy about 850 tonnes of gold in 2025 (down from 2024 but still sizable), and analysts expect elevated official-sector demand to remain a key pillar into 2026. ^[9]

In a separate Reuters deep dive on “what fuels the market,” the same structural theme comes through: gold’s surge has been linked to robust central‑bank buying and diversification trends alongside rate-cut bets and safe-haven flows. ^[10]

ETFs: 2025 became an inflow year again

Gold ETFs have also reasserted themselves as a major demand channel:

• Reuters reported physically backed gold ETFs are on course for their largest inflow since 2020, attracting $82 billion (about 749 tonnes) so far this year. ^[11]
• World Gold Council data for November 2025 showed global physically backed gold ETFs logged their sixth consecutive monthly inflow, adding $5.2 billion, with total holdings rising to 3,932 tonnes and assets under management reaching $530 billion. ^[12]

That ETF persistence matters for price: it signals institutional and retail participation beyond short-term “fear trades,” reinforcing the idea that gold is increasingly treated as a strategic allocation rather than a tactical hedge. ^[13]

Christmas-week price action: records first, consolidation next

The week’s price behavior has looked like a classic “breakout then breathe” pattern.

• Reuters described gold hitting fresh records near $4,525 before easing modestly, with analysts pointing to profit-taking and holiday-thinned trading as reasons for the pause. ^[14]
• Investing.com’s analysis of Christmas Eve trading described spot gold moving in a wide band roughly between $4,471 and $4,526, with the push above $4,500 followed by some fading into late trade. ^[15]
• A Dec. 25 market note also emphasized that some traders are beginning to take profits after gold’s ~70% surge in 2025, while still framing the broader trend as supported by central‑bank buying and expectations of lower borrowing costs. ^[16]

One widely cited technical takeaway: even after the pullback, gold remains in a powerful uptrend, and some market commentary continues to flag the potential for another leg higher once liquidity returns after the holiday lull. ^[17]

Regional snapshot: gold prices in India on Dec. 25

Gold’s global surge is showing up in local markets too. In India, Business Standard reported sharp moves in domestic bullion prices on Dec. 25, with 24K gold (10 grams) quoted around ₹1,38,940 and 22K gold (10 grams) around ₹1,27,330, alongside a jump in silver prices. ^[18]

This divergence between soaring investment demand and pressured jewelry demand is also consistent with Metals Focus commentary cited by Reuters: high prices have weighed on jewelry consumption in India even as bar-and-coin investment has held up better. ^[19]

Gold price forecast for 2026: where top banks and strategists see XAU/USD next

The most important question for investors heading into 2026 is whether gold’s extraordinary 2025 performance sets up a correction — or whether the rally is simply shifting into a slower, higher‑plateau phase.

Here’s what major published forecasts and analyst notes are saying right now:

Bullish base case: $4,900 (Goldman Sachs)

Goldman Sachs sees gold rising to $4,900/oz by December 2026 in its base case, driven by structurally high central bank demand and cyclical support from U.S. Fed rate cuts — with potential upside if private-investor diversification broadens. ^[20]

“Highest conviction” bull view: $5,055 average by late 2026 (J.P. Morgan)

J.P. Morgan has been among the most prominent bulls. Reuters reported the bank forecasting gold could average $5,055/oz by Q4 2026, with assumptions that investor demand and central bank buying average around 566 tonnes per quarter in 2026. The same Reuters report also reiterated J.P. Morgan’s longer-term target of $6,000/oz by 2028. ^[21]

A separate Reuters analysis on 2026 forecasting also grouped J.P. Morgan with Bank of America and Metals Focus in seeing $5,000 as reachable in 2026, even if the pace of gains slows compared with 2025. ^[22]

A wider forecast range: $4,225 to $5,000+ depending on macro

Reuters’ Dec. 17 survey-style reporting captured how dispersed the outlook is:

• Macquarie: average around $4,225 in 2026 (more conservative, assuming improving growth and relatively high real rates). ^[23]
• MKS PAMP: expects $4,500 average in 2026, describing gold as increasingly a multi‑year strategic portfolio asset. ^[24]
• Morgan Stanley: forecast $4,500 by mid‑2026 (per Reuters reporting). ^[25]
• Metals Focus: forecast $5,000 by end‑2026 (per Reuters reporting). ^[26]

Meanwhile, some media summaries published this week note that several banks broadly cluster expectations for 2026 trading in the $4,500–$4,700 zone, with upside scenarios toward $5,000 if macro uncertainty remains elevated. ^[27]

Key risks that could cool the rally in 2026

Even gold bulls are increasingly careful about one thing: after a 60–70% year, volatility cuts both ways.

The main downside risks highlighted across current reporting include:

• A rebound in real yields / less Fed easing than markets expect, which would raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion. ^[28]
• A stronger U.S. dollar, which can mechanically pressure USD gold prices and reduce overseas buying power. ^[29]
• Forced selling during broader risk-off events, where investors sell liquid “winners” (including gold) to cover losses elsewhere — a dynamic Reuters flagged as a risk when gold and equities rise together. ^[30]
• Soft jewelry demand, particularly in price-sensitive markets, which can remove a traditional source of physical demand even as investment demand remains strong. ^[31]

In short: the structural story may be supportive, but the path is unlikely to be smooth.

What to watch next: the early-2026 catalysts for gold price direction

Once full liquidity returns after the holidays, the gold market is likely to refocus on a clear set of catalysts:

1. Fed policy and U.S. data — inflation and labor prints that move rate-cut expectations (and by extension, real yields). ^[32]
2. U.S. dollar trend — whether 2025’s dollar weakness extends into 2026 as many investors expect. ^[33]
3. Central bank buying pace — whether diversification remains persistent at levels seen in recent years. ^[34]
4. ETF flows — whether 2025’s heavy inflows continue, especially across Asia and North America. ^[35]
5. Geopolitical and trade-policy headlines — particularly anything that intensifies safe-haven demand or disrupts confidence in fiscal/monetary frameworks. ^[36]

Bottom line: gold ends 2025 in control — but 2026 becomes a “range vs. breakout” year

As of Dec. 25, 2025, the gold price narrative is best described as strong trend, cautious tape: bulls still have the structural wind at their back (central banks + ETFs + diversification), but the market is also digesting an extraordinary year and heading into the new one with a wider forecast dispersion than usual — from “cool-off” scenarios in the low‑$4,000s to “new regime” calls at $5,000+. ^[37]

If you want, I can rewrite this in a more “wire-style” Google News format (shorter paragraphs, more attribution in-line, and a tighter nut graf) while keeping the same facts and SEO focus.

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.fxleaders.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.ft.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.gold.org, 13. www.gold.org, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.fxleaders.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.business-standard.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.businessinsider.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.gold.org, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com