Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market this morning, May 20, 2026 recorded a vibrant growth turnaround, cutting off the series of consecutive free-fall days at the beginning of the week.

According to actual surveys in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, bulk purchase prices simultaneously surged by another 800 VND/kg, pushing the general price level of the whole region to an average threshold of 86.2 million VND/kg.

In Dak Nong (old), coffee prices surged to 86,300 VND/kg, continuing to maintain the leading position in purchasing prices.

Dak Lak and Gia Lai localities both recorded good recovery momentum, currently trading stably at 86.100 VND/kg. In Lam Dong province, after hitting a deep bottom, coffee prices also reversed to increase by another 800 VND, climbing to 85.600 VND/kg.

This increase coincided with the breakthrough momentum of the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank when it increased by another 12 VND to 26,121 VND/USD, while the pepper price remained unchanged at the level of 142,000 VND/kg.

World coffee prices

In the international market, after hitting the lowest levels in many months at the beginning of the session, strong bottom-fishing demand helped both futures exchanges close in bright green.

On the New York floor, July Arabica futures price (KCN26) went upstream and increased sharply by 5.95 cents (+2.25%), closing at 270.15 cents/lb.

Sharing the same recovery trend, the London exchange saw the price of Robusta futures in July (RMN26) increase by 39 USD (+1.18%), reaching 3,345 USD/ton.

Coffee price assessment

The price reversal to increase sharply after a 3-week series of continuous sell-offs is mainly due to technical reasons, when indicators touched the oversold zone, which triggered a wave of short buys and settled the decline status of large speculative funds.

Besides technical factors, the support from depleted standard reserves continues to provide solid momentum for the increase. Arabica inventories monitored by the ICE floor have fallen sharply to a 2.75-month low, to only 458,735 bags on Tuesday, while Robusta inventories are also tightly anchored at the lowest level in the past 2 years. In addition, unresolved logistics congestion in the Strait of Hormuz due to prolonged Middle East tensions is still squeezing global supply through pushing freight rates, fuel and especially input fertilizer prices to very high levels. Exports from Brazil also show signs of slowing down as Cecafe’s April report recorded a decrease of 1.3% in green coffee exports compared to the same period.

Although the market has just had an impressive rebound session, experts still recommend maintaining caution and avoiding subjective psychology. Pressure from long-term macroeconomic forecasts is still extremely heavy as StoneX and Marex Group both simultaneously predict that Brazil’s upcoming harvest output will reach a record 75.9 million sacks, leading to a global surplus of up to 10 million sacks for 2026.

Along with the fact that Vietnam’s export growth in the first 4 months of the year jumped 15.8% to 810,000 tons, this recovery momentum may only be short-term before new supply from South America floods the market in June.