Created on January 30, 2026

• The USD/JPY pair currently looks as if it is trying to find a floor in the market, near the crucial 200-day EMA.

The US dollar continues its attempt to stabilize against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday as we have seen a lot of noise in this general vicinity. All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to look at the 200-day EMA just below as a potential floor in the market, which is currently sitting at the 152 yen level. As long as we stay above that area, I do think you start to talk about the possibility of the market turning things around. If and when it does, then I think a move back toward the 50-day EMA makes quite a bit of sense.

There were some grumblings about the Bank of Japan intervening and that wouldn’t be a huge surprise. But at this juncture, I also recognize that market participants are looking at this as a market that pays interest at the end of the day and a lot of people will continue to try to take advantage of the carry trade if in fact it is available to them.

Market Volatility and Support Levels

With this, I believe the volatility that we are seeing during the trading session is just a function of market participants trying to fight back. I do think that the US dollar is oversold, and I believe this is a potential bottom just waiting to happen. I also recognize that there are a lot of questions about the US dollar at the moment, so I don’t think this is something that you want to get extraordinarily aggressive on.

Rather, treat it more or less as a part of your diversified portfolio that pays your dividends occasionally or in this case daily and just helps pad returns for the year. The Japanese yen is not a currency I want to own, and the US dollar is oversold. You probably get more traction using a different currency against the yen, maybe such as the Australian dollar, but the market certainly looks like one that I think is setting up for some consolidation and a bigger move. All we have to do is wait to see which direction.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Reclaims Ground Above $1.38

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) edged higher on Thursday, with the pairing moving back towards the four-year high reached earlier in the week.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3844, up roughly 0.2% from the start of Thursday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) remained on the back foot at the beginning of European trade on Thursday, extending a late-session retreat from the previous day.

After enduring sustained selling pressure for much of the past fortnight, the greenback had shown tentative signs of stabilising ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy announcement on Wednesday.

As expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged at its first meeting of 2026 and adopted a relatively firm tone, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs will also remain on hold through at least March and April.

However, rather than restoring confidence in the currency, the decision appeared to underscore the Dollar’s current vulnerability. Investors continued to view the USD through a pessimistic lens, allowing selling pressure to resume.

Although Sterling managed to advance against the US Dollar, it failed to build similar gains versus other major currencies on Thursday.

The Pound remained rangebound, with thin trading conditions persisting amid a continued lack of impactful UK economic releases.

GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Chair Speculation to Drive Volatility?

Looking ahead, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate could see heightened volatility towards the end of the week if President Trump reveals his nominee to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair.

Earlier comments from Trump suggested an announcement could come ‘soon’, alongside claims that interest rates will ‘come down a lot’ once his preferred candidate takes charge.

If no announcement materialises, attention is likely to shift to the latest US producer price index, where signs of easing factory gate inflation could apply fresh pressure to the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, in the continued absence of meaningful UK data, the Pound may struggle to develop a clear directional bias as the week draws to a close.

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The Japanese yen has staged a strong comeback in the past few days as investors focused on its potential intervention and the latest actions by the Federal Reserve. The USD/JPY pair was trading at 153, down by 4% from its highest level this year.

Concerns about Japanese yen intervention remain

The USD/JPY exchange rate has been in focus in the past few weeks as concerns about the Japanese economy continued. It crashed last week after media reports suggested that Donald Trump’s administration was willing to help Japan intervene.

The pair then rose slightly this week after Scott Bessent announced that the US will not intervene. This is notable as Bessent is a well-known figure in the forex industry because of his role in collapsing the British pound in the early 1990s.

Market participants are concerned on whether Japan will succeed in going solo in intervening in the forex market. In a note, an analyst from CBA said:

“Without US involvement, any intervention by the Ministry of Finance  alone would be far less effective in countering downward pressure on the yen, meaning any post-intervention gains are likely to fade quickly.”

Why the Japanese yen needs intervention 

The Japanese yen has been in a freefall in the past few months, with the USD/JPY exchange rate soaring from a low of 139 in April last year to a high of 160 this year.

This performance accelerated after Sanae Takaichi became the prime minister and embraced Shinzo Abe-like policies. Her initial policy was a large stimulus program that she aimed at solving the inflation situation. She now plans more stimulus, including tax cuts if she wins the election in February.

Takaichi also took a more hawkish stance on China, a top trading partner. She vowed that her government would step in to help Taiwan if Beijing attacked, a move that infuriated Beijing.

The Japanese yen has crashed despite the ongoing divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The BoJ has embraced a more hawkish tone and hiked interest rates to the highest level in three decades. It has hinted its willingness to continue hiking rates this year.

The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and analysts believe that its next move will be lower. Besides, Donald Trump will soon announce the potential Jerome Powell replacement. He has maintained that the potential replacement will be one who will be willing to cut rates aggressively.

USD/JPY technical analysis

The daily timeframe chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has suffered a harsh reversal in the past few days, moving from a high of 159.40 to 153 today. It remains below the crucial support level at 154.3, its lowest level in December last year.

The pair has crashed below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. It also moved below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages, and is now in the process of forming a bearish flag or pennant pattern.

Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it continues falling, potentially to the 50% retracement level at 150.

The post USD/JPY forecast: What next for the soaring Japanese yen? appeared first on Invezz

Natural gas price continued providing weak sideways trading, affected by the contradiction between the main indicators besides forming a significant obstacle against the attempts to renew the bullish attack, fluctuating near $3.850.

There is a chance for forming new bearish waves, to press on the moving average 55 at $3.450, and surpassing it might extend the losses towards $3.050, facing the extension of historical support, while the price success in surpassing $4.000 level and holding above it will allow it to renew the bullish attempts, to expect targeting $4.220 and $4.450 level.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.450 and $4.050

Trend forecast: Bearish