Natural Gas (NG=F) Price Forecast: Storage Build, Technical Resistance, and Demand Signals Shape Outlook

EIA Storage Build Puts Pressure on NG=F Prices

U.S. natural gas futures hovered near $2.98 after the Energy Information Administration reported a +71 Bcf storage injection for the week ending September 5, slightly above consensus estimates of +68–70 Bcf. Total storage rose to 3,343 Bcf, which is 188 Bcf above the five-year average and only 38 Bcf below last year’s levels. The injection disappointed bulls hoping for a lower figure, keeping NG=F prices capped under $3 despite recent attempts to break higher. Traders are now gauging whether this oversupply trend will continue, with projections pointing toward end-season inventories above 4.0 Tcf.

Technical Barriers Near $3.20 Hold Back Momentum

Natural gas is trading just below its 50-day moving average at $3.20 and faces a short-term pivot at $3.238. A decisive breakout above these levels could open room toward $3.579, but current momentum remains fragile. The market recently rebounded from a low of $2.695 to $3.198, a move driven largely by short-covering rather than fresh institutional buying. Support is concentrated in the $2.947–$2.887 range. If prices hold above this zone, a secondary higher bottom could form, paving the way for renewed bullish momentum. A failure of $2.887, however, would risk a sharp drop back toward $2.695–$2.647.

Cooling Forecasts and LNG Demand Weakness Weigh on NG=F

Weather models show muted demand signals in the near term, with cooler temperatures across the North and extreme Southern heat offsetting each other. This reduces overall gas burn expectations. Compounding the weakness, LNG feed gas demand remains subdued, keeping export flows below capacity levels. The quiet Atlantic hurricane season has further dampened volatility, as Gulf Coast LNG terminals face fewer storm-related risks. Traders are cautious that without a stronger weather-driven demand surge or a rebound in LNG exports, NG=F prices could remain pinned below resistance.

Regional Pricing Shows Oversupply Strain

Henry Hub benchmark gas slipped by $0.21 to trade below $3.00, with broad regional averages showing similar pressure. West Texas and Southeast New Mexico hubs posted deeper declines, with Waha sliding by $0.535, highlighting pipeline constraints and oversupply in producing regions. In contrast, Northeast hubs like Tennessee Zone 6 showed small gains near $0.135, reflecting localized demand. Nationally, the weighted average dropped by $0.10, reinforcing that weakness is spread across most delivery points rather than being isolated to a few hubs.

Institutional Buyers Signal Longer-Term Reliability Demand

While near-term pricing remains pressured, major North American buyers continue to lock in long-dated supply agreements. Forward curves show seasonal swings between $2.50 and $5.50/MMBtu through 2035, with consistent winter spikes above $5. This reflects underlying structural demand growth from population increases and data center expansion. Companies like Williams and Enbridge are expanding their pipeline and storage portfolios to meet this demand, underscoring that while short-term oversupply persists, long-term fundamentals remain tight.

Trading Strategy and Verdict

With NG=F near $2.98 and resistance layered at $3.20–$3.24, the market is at a critical inflection point. If support at $2.947–$2.887 holds, upside potential toward $3.58 remains viable, especially if weather or LNG demand improves. However, repeated failures to clear $3.20 combined with strong storage builds argue for caution. On balance, the technical structure favors a Hold stance—bullish potential exists on support confirmation, but oversupply and weak catalysts prevent a decisive Buy call at this stage. A break below $2.887 would shift the outlook firmly bearish.

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First Test of 20-Day Support

Price has now reached an important potential support zone defined by the 20-Day moving average at $2.92 and the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $2.91. This marks the first test of support around the 20-Day line since it was reclaimed nine days ago, a development that often carries technical significance. If buyers step in here, the zone could provide the foundation for a bullish reversal. Yet, the conviction behind today’s decline raises the risk that the 20-Day line may not hold, with lower levels likely to be tested before firm support is established.

Additional Support Levels in Play

Should the $2.91 area fail, nearby levels of interest include the interim swing low at $2.87 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $2.84. Together, these levels form a secondary support cluster that could attract buyers if downward momentum extends. A break below that zone, however, would increase the probability of natural gas testing the $2.62 swing low from late August.

Channel Dynamics and Trend Implications

Another lens for evaluating the current move is the large bearish parallel trend channel that continues to guide price action. The channel has been respected on multiple occasions, with the May corrective low and August swing low both bouncing off support near the lower quarter line. The center line has also acted as both support and resistance in recent months, underlining its importance as a dynamic pivot.

An upside breakout through the center line occurred on August 28, coinciding with the recovery of the 20-Day average — a technically significant alignment. Yet, the recent swing high at $3.20 was rejected at the upper quarter line of the channel, reinforcing resistance and keeping the channel intact. If price revisits the channel’s center line near the 61.8% retracement, traders will be watching closely for signs of stabilization and support from buyers.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Gold (XAU/USD) Holds Near $3,680 After 40% Year-to-Date Surge

Gold (XAU/USD) futures opened Thursday at $3,680.60 per ounce, climbing 1% from the prior session’s close of $3,643.60. The metal has delivered nearly 40% YTD gains, a historic run powered by shifting U.S. monetary policy expectations, global inflation, and central bank accumulation. One week earlier, on September 4, futures traded at $3,549.90, meaning bullion has advanced 3.7% in seven days. Compared to a month ago, when contracts opened at $3,383.90 on August 11, the increase is +8.8%. Year-on-year, gold has surged 45.7% from $2,525.80 in September 2024, reflecting its strongest twelve-month performance since the post-crisis rally of 2010–2011.

U.S. CPI and Labor Data Reinforce Fed Rate Cut Speculation

The U.S. inflation profile remains at the center of gold’s momentum. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) advanced 0.4% MoM in August, accelerating from July’s 0.2%, pushing the annual rate to 2.9%. Core CPI held at 3.1% YoY, consistent with forecasts. At the same time, jobless claims surged to 263,000, far above the 235,000 consensus, marking the highest level in nearly four years. These signals increase the likelihood of Fed easing at the September 17 FOMC meeting, with futures markets fully pricing a 25bp cut from the 4.25%–4.50% band and leaving a smaller probability for a 50bp move. For gold, lower rates reduce opportunity costs, reinforcing its appeal versus yield-bearing assets.

China and India Demand Weakens as Domestic Discounts Emerge

Despite global strength, physical demand in Asia is softening. In Shanghai, bullion traded $17 below London prices, maintaining a discount streak for two consecutive weeks — the longest since late 2024. Discounts reflect weak local buying, particularly in jewelry, as consumers shift toward investment bars and coins. In India, the world’s No. 2 gold consumer, prices have risen more than 50% YoY, squeezing demand ahead of the critical festival and wedding season culminating in Diwali next month. Industry officials expect a 15–20% drop in volume purchases, with lighter jewelry designs replacing heavier traditional styles. Raksha Bandhan and Onam sales were already reported down 25% YoY, the steepest decline in three years.

Central Banks and Institutional Demand Counteract Retail Weakness

While consumer demand has softened in Asia, central banks remain net buyers, offsetting retail declines. Ongoing geopolitical risk — including Trump’s 100% tariff threats against China and India if they maintain Russian ties — adds a policy-driven motive for reserve diversification. Central banks’ gold accumulation has historically provided a floor during periods of declining jewelry demand, and current trends mirror past cycles in 2020–2021 when official purchases supported prices even as consumer markets slowed.

Technical Structure Points to $3,800 Breakout Potential

The technical landscape remains constructive. Gold recently broke out from an ascending triangle pattern, confirming buyers’ control. The measured target from the breakout projects toward $3,800 per ounce, aligning with bullish Wall Street forecasts, including Goldman Sachs’ projection for $3,700 by year-end. Immediate support sits at $3,622, where futures briefly traded after Tuesday’s record-setting session. Below that, $3,550 represents secondary support. Resistance is now concentrated at $3,700–$3,720, followed by the breakout zone near $3,800. Failure to hold above $3,620 would risk testing the $3,500 handle, but momentum remains tilted upward as long as the Fed’s easing path stays intact.

Silver Outpaces Gold in Percentage Gains

Silver is adding fuel to the precious metals rally, recently trading back to $41.30 per ounce, only 25 cents shy of a 14-year high. The gold-to-silver ratio has compressed to levels not seen since 2021, suggesting relative strength in the white metal. Historically, silver’s outperformance has marked late-stage accelerations in precious metals rallies, further underlining speculative positioning.

Valuation and Monetary Supply Divergence Support Further Upside

Analysts note that the divergence between U.S. M2 money supply growth and gold’s price has reached levels last seen in 2016, 2019, and 2021 — all periods that preceded sustained rallies. If monetary expansion leads gold by three months, as historical correlations suggest, liquidity injections in Q4 2025 could extend the run toward $3,900–$4,000 territory. This structural undervaluation thesis is one reason many institutional desks maintain overweight positions in XAU/USD despite overbought conditions.

Geopolitical and Trade Risks Remain Key Tailwinds

Trade policy remains a persistent wildcard. Trump’s proposed 100% tariffs on China and India if they maintain ties with Russia could exacerbate supply chain disruptions and drive safe-haven flows into gold. The assassination of activist Charlie Kirk added political instability in U.S. equities, but gold’s defensive positioning attracted buyers during that volatility. Geopolitical stress, coupled with the halving of global bond yields since early 2024, has made bullion increasingly attractive as a hedge against systemic risk.

Quarterly Seasonality and Historical Patterns Favor Q4 Strength

Historically, the final quarter of the year has been gold’s strongest, with October and November showing outsized gains in multiple cycles. Combined with the Bitcoin halving effect drawing liquidity into alternative assets, and with the SEC reviewing 92 ETF applications across crypto and metals, broader institutional engagement could spill over into gold. Public listings of firms tied to gold-backed products are also expected, echoing the pipeline of crypto IPOs in parallel, reinforcing gold’s strategic allocation in institutional portfolios.

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XAU/USD Current price: $3,643.25

• United States inflation, as measured by the CPI, rose to 2.9% YoY in August.
• The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times before year-end.
• XAU/USD extends its consolidative phase near record highs ahead of a fresh catalyst.

Gold price held within familiar levels on Thursday, hovering around $3,630 in the mid-American session. The XAU/USD pair suffered a minor intraday setback ahead of first-tier events, which were unable to spur action around the bright metal.

On the one hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its decision to keep benchmark interest rates unchanged following the September meeting. The decision was largely anticipated by market players and had no major impact on financial markets, although the Euro (EUR) shed some ground amid fresh projections on slower growth in the Eurozone.

On the other hand, the United States (US) released the August Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed inflation remained sticky in the month. The figures were pretty much in line with the market’s expectations, with the annual CPI hitting 2.9% and the core annual reading printing at 3.1%. On a negative note, the monthly increase was 0.4%, surpassing the 0.3% anticipated and the previous 0.2%. Also, the country released Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended  September 6, which jumped to 263K from the previous 236K and was much higher than the expected 235K.

The US Dollar came under strong selling pressure after the dismal news, while Wall Street soared, as speculative interest rushed to price in Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate cuts in the three meetings the central bank will have before year end.

Market’s attention now shifts to the Fed’s announcement scheduled for September 17.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

Technically, the XAU/USD pair has made no progress. It trades little changed for a third consecutive day, consolidating near record highs. The daily chart shows that the pair remains far above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) accelerating north above the longer ones. In the meantime, technical indicators barely eased from their recent peaks, still holding within overbought readings.

The near-term picture is neutral. In the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair battles to recover above a bullish 20 SMA, while the 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their firm upward slopes far below the current level. Technical indicators in the meantime, pared their slides and turned north, although the Momentum indicator remains below its 100 line and shows no actual strength. Overall, Gold is likely to extend its consolidative phase, with minor bearish corrections on the docket.  

Support levels: 3,625.85 3,608.40 3,597.10

Resistance levels: 3,650.00 3,675.00 3,690.00

The EURNZD suffered strong negative pressures in its last trading, which forces it to break the extra support at 1.9775, suffering extra losses by its approach from the bullish channel’s support at 1.9645.

The current scenario depends on the strength of the bullish channel’s support, to expect forming bullish waves to breach 1.9775 level, then achieving extra gains by its rally to 1.9850, while breaking the main support will confirm moving to the negative track, which forces it to suffer big losses by reaching 1.9585 and 1.9525.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.9650 and 1.9800

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price attacked the barrier at $1400.00 yesterday, to find an exit to resume the bullish attempts, but this attempt ended by a clear failure to force it to decline temporarily towards $1381.00.

The contradiction between the main indicators might force the price to provide mixed trading until gathering extra positive momentum, to ease the mission of breaching the current barrier and begin recording extra gains by its rally to $1412.00 and $1435.00, while the attempts of changing the main trend requires achieving a real break to the support at $1340.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1370.00 and $1412.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track