The EURGBP rose cautiously in its last trading, to hit the resistance of its EMA50, in attempt to offload some of its clear oversold conditions on the relative strength indicators, with the emergence of positive overlapping signals, affected by breaking bullish trend line on the short-term basis, intensifying the negative pressure on the pair, reinforcing the chances of the price decline on the near-term basis.
Therefore, our expectation suggests a decline in EURGBP’s last intraday trading, if the resistance settles at 0.8825, to target the key support at 0.8795.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.8795 and 0.8830
Copper price rose in attempt to recover its previous losses, and it attempts to recover some of its losses, attempting to offload some of its clear overbought conditions, especially with the emergence of positive overlapping signals, amid the continuation of the negative pressure due to its trading below EMA50, reinforcing the dominance and stability of the bearish corrective trend on the short-term basis with its trading alongside supportive trend line.
Therefore, our expectations suggest a decline in their last trading on an intraday basis, if the resistance settles at $55.10, to target the key support level at $4.95.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.95 and $5.10
GBP/USD forecast remains neutral to bearish after another downbeat data.
Dovish BoE expectations could push for a rate cut sooner than expected.
Markets await US and UK PMIs to gauge activity momentum.
The GBP/USD saw a dip from its daily highs near 1.3100 after another weak UK retail sales report, which further deepened concerns regarding softening domestic demand. This increased the odds of a more dovish Bank of England. However, the price pared the retail sales-led losses, hovering near 1.3095 at the time of writing. Despite this, the pound appears fragile as traders reassess the UK’s macroeconomic outlook.
The ONS data showed retail sales declining 1.1% MoM in October, well below the expected flat reading. September’s reading was revised to 0.7%, which gave some life to the pound after a fall. The annual figures came in at 0.2%, missing the forecast of 1.5% and slipping below the previous 1%. A sharp decline of 3.3% in textile, clothing, and footwear sales weighed heavily on the data, reflecting pressure on discretionary spending.
The weakness arises when inflation and labor market data have already softened significantly, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to shift towards easing. Markets are slowly pricing in a more accommodative policy path, and Friday’s data further supports this narrative that rate cuts may come sooner than expected.
On the fiscal front, the UK’s Autumn Budget, scheduled for November 26, is expected to include an increase in income tax to close the £22 billion budgetary gap. With faltering consumer demand, tighter fiscal measures could further weigh on growth prospects, limiting the pound’s ability to post a meaningful recovery.
Across the Atlantic, the US dollar remains broadly supported, as the dollar index stays comfortably above 100.00, approaching a five-month high. Traders have scaled back their bets on December rate cuts, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 35% probability, down from 70% last week. Fed officials warned that inflation remains high, dampening expectations for a potential easing. The October meeting minutes also showed officials leaning towards steady policy, supporting the US dollar.
GBP/USD Key Data Ahead
Both the UK and the US will release PMI data later on Friday, which could offer fresh insight into private sector momentum. Activity is expected to slow in both economies. The direction of GBP/USD will likely hinge on which side shows a sharper loss of momentum.
GBP/USD Technical Forecast: Gains Capped by 1.3100
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
The GBP/USD finds mild support below the mid-1.3000 level, climbing back to the broken demand zone near 1.3100, which acts as resistance. The same level coincides with the 20-period MA, making it a tough nut to crack. Finding acceptance above the level could gain buying traction, leading to the 1.3200 area.
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On the other hand, staying below the 1.3100 mark will maintain selling pressure, aiming to pounce on the 1.3000 level ahead of 1.2950. The RSI is gradually rising, showing support but still below 50.0, indicating that bulls still require more energy for a reversal.
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Silver price (XAG/USD) revisits the weekly low around $49.50 during the European trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as traders remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not cut interest rates in the December policy meeting.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting is 35.5%.
The scenario in which the Fed holds interest rates steady bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Fed dovish expectations stay lower as officials remain concerned over rising inflation risks to the upside. On Thursday, Cleveland Fed Bank President Beth Hammack stated that high inflation is the “real issue” of the economy, adding that “inflation is still too high and trending in wrong direction”, which calls for the need to keep the monetary policy “somewhat restrictive”.
Meanwhile, the rising United States (US) jobless rate has also failed to intensify Fed dovish expectations meaningfully. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for September showed on Thursday that the Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4%.
In Friday’s session, investors will focus on the flash US S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for November, which will be published at 14:45 GMT.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price struggles to hold the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $49.50.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting indecisiveness among investors about the near-term outlook.
Looking down, the September 23 high of $44.47 would remain a key support. On the upside, the all-time high of $54.50 might act as key barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
BoJ and Prime Minister Takaichi’s Policies Add to Yen Weakness
Softer Japanese data and a weaker yen have intensified focus on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ultra-loose monetary policy stance and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s forward policy guidance.
October’s data came after the first meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday, November 18. BoJ Governor Ueda kept a potential rate hike on the table, stating that monetary policy decisions will hinge on incoming data.
Wage growth trends will likely be crucial for the BoJ, given the weaker yen-import price dynamic. Updates from Japanese labor unions pushing for wage hikes ahead of the 2026 spring negotiations could support a more hawkish BoJ rate path.
Later in the morning session, Japan’s S&P Global Services PMI also requires consideration. Economists expect the Services PMI to drop from 53.1 in October to 52.8 in November. Slowing services activity would support a less hawkish BoJ rate path, given that the sector contributes around 70% to Japan’s GDP.
US Services PMI and Fed Speakers in Focus
While Japanese trade data faced market scrutiny, US services sector data will influence bets on a December Fed rate cut.
Economists expect the S&P Global Services PMI to fall from 54.8 in October to 54.6 in November. A modest drop in the headline PMI would signal economic resilience, given that the services sector accounts for around 80% of US GDP.
However, traders should consider service sector price trends, given the Fed’s increased concerns about inflation. As a key contributor to inflation, price trends will likely be the key driver for the US dollar. Elevated prices would support a more hawkish Fed policy stance, sending USD/JPY toward 160.
Beyond the data, FOMC members’ speeches may also move the dial. Growing support to delay further monetary policy easing to tame inflation would send USD/JPY higher. FOMC members John Williams, Michael Barr, Philip Jefferson, and Lorie Logan are on the calendar to speak. Views on inflation, the labor market, and the timeline for rate cuts will be crucial for the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY Scenarios: Diverging Monetary Policies
Bearish USD/JPY Scenario: Hawkish BoJ rhetoric, intervention warnings, softer US Services PMI, and dovish Fed chatter could drag USD/JPY toward 155.
Bullish USD/JPY Scenario: Dovish BoJ signals, stronger US PMI data, and hawkish Fed rhetoric could send USD/JPY toward 160.
Wednesday’s decisive close above the 10-day line marked a clear bullish reversal after a brief violation days earlier. A daily close back below $4.67 today would jeopardize that signal and return short-term bias to bearish. Minor or brief dips with swift recovery remain tolerable in a strong trend.
Higher Low Structure
Wednesday’s $4.57 low established the current higher daily low sequence. A decisive drop beneath it would erase that bullish distinction and invite a deeper test of the rising 20-day average at $4.47, now converging with a supporting uptrend line for enhanced significance.
Broader Resistance Context
The entire advance continues to probe the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement zone of the prior major decline. Sustained trade and a close above Wednesday’s $4.81 high is required to confirm continuation momentum and head towards a challenge the recent trend high at $4.88.
Measured Upside Extensions
A clean break above $4.88–$4.95 (March 2025 peak) unlocks $4.96 as the immediate next objective, followed by $5.14. The 127.2% extension of the recent pullback defines the first new trend-high projection, while the 161.8% extension outlines the stronger measured move if bulls stay aggressive.
Outlook
Thursday’s inside day crystallizes the 10-day average at $4.67 and higher low at $4.57 as the immediate defensive line for bulls. Hold this zone to protect Wednesday’s hammer reversal and drive toward $4.88–$4.96 in the sessions ahead. A close below $4.57 shifts focus to the 20-day/uptrend confluence at $4.47; only sustained weakness beneath that level would meaningfully threaten the broader bullish structure.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) declined in its latest intraday trading, with the short-term primary downtrend firmly in control as the stock continues to move along a descending trendline. Additional negative pressure persists as it trades below its 50-day simple moving average, reducing its chances of a near-term recovery. This comes alongside continued negative signals from the Relative Strength Indicators, even after the stock succeeded earlier in unwinding its oversold conditions.
Therefore, we expect the stock’s price to decline in the upcoming sessions, especially if it stabilizes below 316.40 dollars, targeting its first support level at 273.85 dollars.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Thursday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $58.46 per barrel, up from Wednesday’s close at $58.43. Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also up, advancing from the $62.52 price posted on Wednesday, and trading at $62.54.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) pushed higher on Thursday as traders assessed the implications of the latest US non-farm payroll release.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD hovered around $1.3097, up roughly 0.3% from the day’s opening level.
The US Dollar (USD) edged lower on Thursday after September’s long-awaited payroll figures finally landed.
Fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed the US economy created 119,000 jobs in September, comfortably beating expectations for a modest 50,000 increase.
However, the upbeat headline was tempered by a significant downward revision to July’s figures, with payrolls now estimated to have fallen by 4,000 instead of rising by 22,000 as initially reported.
The mixed nature of the release prompted markets to reassess Federal Reserve rate expectations, triggering a modest dovish tilt, although not enough to revive the prospect of a December rate cut.
The Pound (GBP) managed to gain ground on Thursday, though upside momentum was limited as investors remained cautious ahead of the UK’s upcoming autumn budget.
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the budget on 26 November, and uncertainty surrounding the scale and structure of potential tax increases or spending restraints is keeping investors on edge.
Concerns are growing that the measures required to stabilise the UK’s public finances could place further pressure on an already fragile economic backdrop.
Meanwhile, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will lower interest rates in December — reinforced by this week’s inflation data — continue to act as a cap on Sterling’s performance.
GBP/USD Forecast: Softer UK PMIs to Drag on Sterling?
Looking to Friday, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate may soften as fresh UK PMI and retail sales figures are released.
Initial estimates for November suggest slower activity across the UK’s private sector, while retail sales for October are expected to stagnate — a combination that could deepen concerns around the UK’s economic outlook.
Later in the afternoon, the US will publish its own S&P PMI figures. While these are typically less market-moving than ISM surveys, any notable weakening may still inject volatility into USD trade.
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At 13:08 GMT, XAUUSD is trading $4090.32, up $12.47 or +0.31%.
Gold Market Pullback as Dollar Firms Ahead of Jobs Data
Gold is down more than 1% on Thursday, driven by a firmer dollar and a sharp drop in expectations for a December rate cut. The dollar index sits near a two-week high, and that strength continues to pressure XAU/USD. Traders are dealing with typical year-end two-way flow, with profit-taking meeting fresh positioning.
The Fed minutes didn’t help the bullish side either: officials cut in October but warned that easing too fast risks sticky inflation and credibility concerns. Rate-cut pricing for December has fallen to roughly 34%, down from 49% just a day earlier.
Jobs Report Delay Keeps Fed Outlook Uncertain
Today’s September payrolls print—delayed by the shutdown—lands at 13:30 GMT, and expectations sit near 50,000 jobs versus August’s 22,000. It’s an old data set, but the Fed meets December 10 without the next jobs report until December 16, so this release still matters.
Deutsche Bank notes that a December cut basically requires a weak number, and traders know it. Treasury yields are inching higher ahead of the release, with the 10-year around 4.146% and the 2-year at 3.61%, keeping pressure on non-yielding gold.
Dollar Rally Extends as Fed Minutes Slash Cut Odds
Across FX, the dollar is pushing higher after the Fed minutes showed “many” officials opposing a December cut. The yen slid toward 158 per dollar before stabilizing, with traders openly debating whether Japan steps in around 160.
