Created on September 10, 2025

• The US dollar initially plunged during the trading session on Tuesday, testing the crucial ¥146.50 level.
• However, we have turned the market back around to show signs of life, and in fact, have broken back above the 50 Day EMA.
• In other words, it looks like the market is going to try to recover and stay within the previous consolidation area. If we end up forming a hammer, a lot of technical traders will watch that very closely.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market remains somewhat flat, and we are hanging around the 50 Day EMA. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see the pair dance around in the same consolidation area that we have been in before. The market is of course paying close attention to the Federal Reserve meeting next Thursday, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where we are in a little bit of a “holding pattern.”

The 50 Day EMA is flat, and then again you have the 200 Day EMA sitting just below the ¥148 level. All things being equal, it does make a certain amount of sense that the market could just kill sometime between now and the September 17 session. Ultimately, I think this is a scenario where we will see quite a bit of choppiness, but I think we still see a lot of buyers on dips, as the market continues to favor the US dollar at least at the end of the day, as the swap is certainly positive.

If we were to break down below the ¥146 level, then we could see this market plunging toward the ¥143 level. If we were to break above the ¥148.50 level, then it’s possible that the market could go looking to the ¥151 level. Ultimately, I do favor the upside but I think the next couple of weeks could be very choppy and sideways overall.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on September 10, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Neutral, with a slight upward bias.
• Support Levels: 1.1680 – 1.1600 – 1.1540
• Resistance Levels: 1.1750 – 1.1810 -1.1880

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1620, with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1570.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1810, with a target of 1.1600 and a stop-loss at 1.1880.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

As you can see, the EUR/USD pair is trending higher within a newly formed ascending channel pattern. The EUR/USD pair is currently testing key Fibonacci retracement levels that could determine its next direction. The price recently retreated from its highs near 1.1776 and is now approaching potential support around the trend correction levels. Overall, the Fibonacci retracement tool reveals several key levels that buyers may be waiting to join the uptrend.

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1719 appears to offer initial support, while the 50% retracement level at 1.1701 closely aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A deeper correction might test the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1683, which represents a larger pullback but could maintain the overall bullish structure if it holds. If any of these Fibonacci levels successfully contain the current decline, the EUR/USD pair may resume its rise toward the swing high near the top of the channel at 1.1776 or other potential higher targets.

The moving average structure also appears to support further upward momentum, with short-term indicators positioned above their long-term counterparts. This formation confirms that the stronger trend remains upward, provided key support areas hold. However, momentum indicators are showing mixed signals. The Stochastic appears to be exiting the oversold zone, which could indicate that selling pressure is beginning to fade and buyers may be preparing to return. This development is consistent with a bullish pullback scenario.

The Relative Strength Index also appears to be stabilizing after reaching oversold levels, suggesting that a correction may be nearing completion. Any rise from current levels would enhance the likelihood of a continued trend towards the top of the channel.

Trading Tips:

Traders are advised to wait for the reaction to the announcement of U.S. inflation numbers and the European Central Bank (ECB) announcement this week to determine the most suitable EUR/USD trades. My preference is still to sell on every strong upward rebound.

EUR/USD trading will be affected by the ECB’s decision tomorrow, Thursday. A neutral or hawkish statement could allow the uptrend to resume. On the other hand, a cautious tone in the statement or press conference could push the price below support areas. Additionally, the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 3:30 PM (Egypt time) could affect U.S. dollar trends, as a weak reading could strengthen expectations for monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

EUR/USD Forecast Amid European Political Concerns

This week’s EUR/USD forecast is swaying between European politics and a weak U.S. economy. At the start of this week’s trading on reliable trading platforms, the pair settled above 1.1700 after last week’s weak jobs report, but traders remain cautious ahead of a no-confidence vote in France, which could lead to new elections. While political risks are casting a shadow over the euro, the U.S. labor market remains the primary driver, with Federal Reserve interest rate cuts seen as inevitable, and the EUR/USD pair is expected to rise by the end of the year.

According to forex trading experts, the no-confidence vote in the French government will be a significant short-term issue, although the U.S. economy is likely to remain dominant in overall dollar movements. Currently, the dollar’s sentiment remains weak amid expectations of Fed rate cuts, but the French vote has increased caution.

According to experts, there appears to be potential for further volatility in the 1.1650-1.1750 range for the EUR/USD pair this week. Also, we doubt Thursday’s European Central Bank meeting will be a major market driver. Credit Agricole sees a risk of the EUR/USD pair falling above 1.1650 in the event of new elections. However, MUFG expects the US dollar to decline in the medium term, and the divergence in policy between the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve towards the end of the year supports our expectations of a rise in the EUR/USD pair above the psychological resistance level of 1.2000.

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Despite the attempts of the main indicators to provide positive momentum but the stability of the GBPJPY pair below the barrier at 200.40 obstacle the chances for resuming the bullish attack, which forces it to provide sideways trading, activating the expected bearish correctional track. 

While gathering the negative momentum will make the price begin targeting the negative stations by its decline to 198.60, then attempts to press on the initial support at 197.85, while the price success in breaching the barrier and holding above it will turn the bullish scenario to begin achieving clear gains by its rally to 200.90 and 201.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.65 and 200.30

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EURGBP returned to fluctuate below 0.8700 level, forming extra barrier against the bullish attempts, which forces it to delay the bullish attack, and activating the attempts of gathering the gains by reaching 0.8650 facing 61.8%Fibonacci extension level.

Note that stochastic reach below 50 level will increase the negative intraday pressure on the price, which forces it to resume the correctional decline, to expect targeting 0.8625, then monitoring the price behavior due to the importance of this level by detecting the expected trend in the medium period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8625 and 0.8665

Trend forecast: Bearish

• GBP/USD moves sideways in a narrow channel above 1.3500.
• The US Dollar holds its ground despite downward revision to employment data.
• The pair faces a stiff resistance area at 1.3590-1.3600.

GBP/USD fluctuates above 1.3500 in the European session on Wednesday after posting small losses on Tuesday. The pair could attract technical buyers if it manages to clear the 1.3590-1.3600 resistance area.

The US Dollar (USD) staged a rebound in the second half of the day and caused GBP/USD to turn south, as markets turned risk-averse on escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the preliminary benchmark revision showed that the total nonfarm employment in March 2025 was 911,000 less than initially reported. This announcement failed to convince markets of a large Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September and triggered a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ action in markets, helping the USD gather strength.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about an 8% probability of a 50 bps rate cut at next week’s policy meeting, compared to nearly 11% on Tuesday.

Later in the day, producer inflation data from the US will be watched closely by market participants. On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rise by 3.3% in August, matching July’s increase. For the month, the PPI is seen increasing by 0.3% following the 0.9% rise recorded in July.

The market reaction to the PPI data could be straightforward and short-lived ahead of Thursday’s key Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. A stronger-than-forecast increase in the monthly PPI could support the USD with the immediate reaction, while a soft print could weigh on the currency and help the risk mood improve, supporting GBP/USD in the American session.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 50 and GBP/USD continues to trade above the 20-day, 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact but lacks momentum.

On the upside, 1.3590-1.3600 (static level, round level) aligns as a key resistance area before 1.3640 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.3700 (static level, round level).

Looking south, support levels could be seen at 1.3500 (static level, 20-day SMA), 1.3465-1.3460 (50-day SMA, 100-day SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.3440 (200-day SMA).