2026.03.27 2026.03.27
GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 27.03.26–03.04.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.3207 with a target of 1.3870–1.4300. A buy signal: the price holds above 1.3207. Stop Loss: below 1.3207, Take Profit: 1.3870–1.4300.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 1.3207 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3000–1.2700. A sell signal: the 1.3207 level is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 1.3207, Take Profit: 1.3000–1.2700.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above the level of 1.3207 with a target of 1.3870–1.4300.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 1.3207 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3000–1.2700.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree (A) of B is developing. Within it, wave 1 of (A) has formed, and a downward correction has been completed as wave 2 of (A). The third wave 3 of (A) appears to continue forming on the daily chart, with wave iii of 3 developing as its part. The third wave of smaller degree (iii) of iii has likely started developing on the H4 chart, with wave i of (iii) formed as its part. If the presumption is correct, GBP/USD will continue to rise to the levels of 1.3870–1.4300. The level of 1.3207 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.3000–1.2700.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

The GBPAUD confirmed the continuation of the bullish corrective scenario by moving way from the main support at 1.8675, achieving several gains by its rally towards 1.9270, taking advantage of the continuation of providing positive momentum by stochastic in the previous period.

Forming extra support at 1.9060 level will increase the efficiency of the bullish corrective track, to keep waiting for attacking 1.9310 level, and surpassing it will open the way for recording extra gains that might begin at 1.9400 reaching 1.9515.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.9155 and 1.9310

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price stayed below $5.5100, maintaining its negative stance and increasing the likelihood of forming short-term corrective downward waves. Since yesterday, the price has been fluctuating near $5.4200, affected by the ongoing divergence in key indicators, particularly the moving average 55 positioned above current trading levels.

It is important for the price to gather bearish momentum during today’s sessions, which would facilitate targeting first $5.2700, followed by the next key support near $4.9500. However, a strong push above $5.5100 with a positive close would cancel this bearish outlook and give the price a chance to start recovering, potentially moving first toward $5.6300.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.2700 and $5.5100

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Choppy as Iran Talk Uncertainty Persists

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved without a clear trajectory on Thursday, amid uncertainty around US-Iran peace negotiations.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3364, having wavered throughout the session.

The US Dollar experienced uneven movement, rising early in the session before giving back those gains, as uncertainty surrounding potential US-Iran peace talks clouded market sentiment.

Earlier in the week, US President Donald Trump suggested that discussions were underway to bring an end to the conflict, a claim swiftly dismissed by Tehran.

Since then, reports have remained mixed, with speculation ranging from informal contact to the possibility of structured negotiations taking place in the coming days.

Washington has also tabled a peace proposal that Iran has publicly rejected, though there are suggestions it is still being weighed behind closed doors. At the same time, the deployment of an additional 2,000 US troops to the region has raised questions about the credibility of de-escalation efforts.

Amid these conflicting signals, the safe-haven US Dollar found it difficult to establish a clear trend.

The Pound struggled to find momentum, with the absence of notable UK economic releases leaving Sterling without a clear catalyst.

With little fresh data to guide markets, GBP traded cautiously as investors continued to assess how the ongoing Middle East crisis could influence the UK’s economic outlook.

While rising energy prices may encourage the Bank of England to maintain a more restrictive policy stance, they also risk placing additional pressure on already weak growth prospects.

Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Retail Sales in Focus

Friday’s UK retail sales figures could act as a headwind for the Pound. Forecasts suggest sales volumes contracted by 0.8% in February, with a drop of this scale likely to raise fresh concerns about the resilience of the UK economy.

Across the Atlantic, the final reading of the US consumer sentiment index is also due. If confidence is confirmed to have weakened or revised lower, this could place some downward pressure on the US Dollar.

Developments in the US-Iran conflict are expected to remain a key driver of movement. Any indication that both sides are willing to engage in meaningful peace discussions may lift market sentiment and support GBP/USD. On the other hand, further escalation could reinforce demand for the safe-haven US Dollar and potentially push the exchange rate lower.

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2026.03.26 2026.03.26
Yen Slides Amid Rising Oil Pressures. Forecast as of 26.03.2026

Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/

The Japanese government doubts that intervening in the Forex market will drive the USD/JPY pair down. The US dollar is strong amid surging Brent crude prices. Let’s discuss this and develop a trading plan.

Major Takeaways

• The Japanese government is stepping up its verbal interventions.
• Japan is planning to intervene in the oil market.
• The BoJ may raise rates as early as April.
• Long positions on the USD/JPY pair can be opened on a breakout of 159.7.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Yen

While the Japanese government says it is ready to intervene in the currency market at any moment, it is also considering a large-scale plan to deploy its $1.4 trillion in reserves across other markets. The crude oil futures market, in particular, is in the spotlight. The recent rally in Brent crude—triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—has become a major concern for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

Japan has considerable experience with currency interventions, but its effectiveness has often depended on periods of US dollar weakness. With the Fed signaling the end of its monetary tightening cycle and a potential shift toward rate cuts, pressure on USD/JPY has increased. It seems that Tokyo has been waiting for the right moment to act.

USD/JPY Rate and Currency Interventions

Source: Bloomberg.

This time, however, the Fed is largely sidelined. The futures market gives a 63% probability that the US regulator will keep rates unchanged through the end of 2026. At the same time, the trajectory of the US dollar is increasingly tied to oil prices. In other words, any decline in USD/JPY quotes is likely to be temporary as long as Brent crude prices remain elevated. Addressing the root cause of the problem would, in turn, ease pressure on the Japanese currency.

At the same time, Japanese officials continue to fuel concerns in the domestic currency market. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has described the USD/JPY rally as disconnected from fundamentals and warned that intervention in the foreign exchange market could occur at any moment. She has been echoed by Deputy Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura. Alongside this, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated that the Middle East conflict will have only a temporary impact on the economy and reiterated that the central bank is still considering further rate hikes. These factors would support the yen.

However, the currency remains weak. This weakness, combined with rising import costs driven by higher oil prices, is increasing the risk of renewed inflationary pressure, even as inflation has recently fallen below the 2% target for the first time since March 2022.

Japan CPI

Source: Bloomberg.

In this context, the Bank of Japan’s potential moves are truly mind-boggling. The central bank refrained from raising the overnight rate even though consumer prices remained above target for four years. Now, it is considering rate hikes while the CPI slides below 2%. It is nothing short of a paradox.

In reality, central bank actions are typically preventive. If rising inflation expectations are not contained early, they can spiral out of control. This is precisely why Nomura expects the BoJ to increase the overnight rate in April.

Weekly USDJPY Trading Plan

Interventions in the oil market are unlikely to achieve lasting results. Brent is reacting primarily to news of ongoing negotiations, and any funds Japan injects will likely only suppress prices temporarily. The same logic applies to the USD/JPY pair. As a result, a sustained break above the resistance level at 159.7 could serve as a strong signal to add to previously established long positions.

This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode