2026.07.08 2026.07.08
Oil Price Surges as US-Iran Ceasefire Over. Forecast as of 08.07.2026

Dmitri Demidenkohttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/dmitri-demidenko/

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has given Donald Trump an opportunity to declare that it’s all over. The deal is canceled, and everything is back to square one. Judging by the rally in Brent, that seems to be the case. However, are investors being led up the garden path? Let’s discuss this and develop a trading plan.

Major Takeaways

• The US is ready to withdraw from the deal with Iran.
• The oil market turned bullish again.
• China continues to stabilize the market.
• Long positions on Brent can be considered with targets of $82.5 and $84.5.

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Oil

Don’t count your chickens before they hatch. In recent weeks, the markets have lived with the sense that the worst of the conflict in the Middle East was behind them. Brent quickly returned to pre-war levels, and Macquarie and Citigroup predicted that prices would fall to $60 per barrel in the coming months. Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, followed by the US response, appeared at first glance to be a black swan event. In reality, it was entirely predictable. The positions of the two sides were simply too far apart.

The main drivers behind Brent’s drop to February lows were record US exports—which allowed Europe and Asia to meet demand for the next 2–3 months—a reduction in global reserves to their lowest level since December 1990, and a sharp decline in Chinese imports. Against this backdrop, the resumption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz resulted in oil shipments that proved unnecessary.

OECD Government Oil Stocks

Source: Bloomberg.

Adding to the bearish pressure are OPEC+ plans to raise production by 180,000 bpd, Iran’s rapid increase in exports, and the swift recovery of output in Gulf states. As a result, even 30–60 tankers passing through the world’s key oil chokepoint were enough to fuel concerns about a potential supply surplus. According to Vortexa, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz before the escalation reached 40% of pre-conflict levels.

Interestingly, China has once again increased its oil purchases. While some have described Beijing as a savior of the global economy, its actions are largely driven by market conditions: China tends to buy more when Brent prices decline and scale back imports when prices rise.

Chinese Oil Imports

Source: Bloomberg.

In general, given the reluctance of OECD countries to quickly rebuild their stockpiles prior to Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude was indeed closer to $60 than to $80 per barrel. The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East changed everything. The oil market quickly shifted from contango to backwardation, where more distant contracts are cheaper than those for immediate delivery. This indicates either strong demand or supply constraints. Clearly, the latter is the case.

Donald Trump’s words that it’s all over and he doesn’t want to deal with Iran suggest that investors can expect more intense hostilities than before unless the US leader changes his mind.

Weekly Trading Plan for Brent

Brent‘s rebound from the lower boundary of the $70–80 range signaled profit-taking on short positions and triggered a reversal. A further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East would provide grounds for increasing long positions with targets of $82.5 and $84.5. Alternatively, if the US and Iran return to the negotiating table, Brent crude will likely remain stuck in this consolidation range.

This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.

Price chart of UKBRENT in real time mode

Copper price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the contradiction of the main indicators against holding below $6.3000 barrier, the price needs to settle below $5.9500 level, reinforcing the chances of targeting the corrective stations, which might begin at $5.8200 and $5.7100.

Surpassing the barrier will cancel the corrective scenario, to open the way for recording clear gains by its rally towards $5.4300 initially, to attempt to surpass $6.5200, to confirm the continuation of the positivity in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.9500 and $6.2600

Trend forecast: Bearish

Price movements in platinum are often sharper than gold or silver due to its limited availability and reliance on a few global mining regions. Automotive regulations, global production levels, and technology usage influence the platinum price today. As platinum becomes more relevant in clean energy applications, its daily rate has gained importance for both buyers and investors.

Domestic coffee prices today

Coffee prices today in the domestic market decreased sharply after the previous surge. The average price was recorded at 94,800 VND/kg, down 2,100 VND/kg.

In Dak Lak, coffee prices decreased by 2,000 VND/kg, down to 94,700 VND/kg. In Gia Lai, coffee prices also decreased by 2,000 VND/kg, reaching 94,800 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong, coffee prices today decreased by 1,900 VND/kg, down to 94,300 VND/kg. This is the lowest level among the surveyed areas.

The old Dak Nong area recorded a purchase price of 94,800 VND/kg, down 2,200 VND/kg compared to the previous update.

Thus, domestic coffee prices currently fluctuate from 94. 300-94. 800 VND/kg. The gap between the region with the highest and lowest prices is 500 VND/kg.

Despite a sharp decrease, the domestic coffee price level is still higher than the price range at the beginning of July. This development shows that the market is adjusting after a hot increase.

The USD/VND exchange rate according to Vietcombank was recorded at 26,076 VND/USD, an increase of 4 VND.

World coffee prices

World coffee prices simultaneously fell sharply in the most recent trading session, after a shock increase in the previous session.

On the London exchange, the September 2026 Robusta futures contract fell 172 USD/ton, equivalent to 4.25%, to 3,872 USD/ton.

During the session, this contract at one point increased to 4,121 USD/ton but then decreased sharply, sometimes down to 3,846 USD/ton. Trading volume reached 18,153 lots.

Robusta for November 2026 delivery fell 168 USD/ton, equivalent to 4.19%, to 3,839 USD/ton.

The January and March 2027 terms decreased by 168 USD/ton and 169 USD/ton respectively, to 3,806 USD/ton and 3.773 USD/ton.

The July 2026 Robusta contract decreased by 172 USD/ton, to 3,892 USD/ton. However, this term is close to maturity, so the trading volume is low; the September contract reflects the market trend more clearly.

On the New York exchange, Arabica fell very sharply. September 2026 Arabica futures fell 32.35 US cents/lb, equivalent to 9.24%, to 317.60 US cents/lb.

During the session, this contract at one point increased to 350.00 US cents/lb but then reversed sharply, sometimes falling back to 315.40 US cents/lb.

Arabica December 2026 futures fell 30.40 US cents/lb, or 9.06%, to 305.00 US cents/lb.

March and May 2027 terms decreased by 29.50 US cents/lb and 28.95 US cents/lb respectively, to 300.25 US cents/lb and 299.15 US cents/lb.

Coffee price assessment

According to data from Barchart, coffee prices fell sharply on Tuesday as the market returned some of the shocking increase of the first session of the week.

After coffee prices rose too quickly to a high level, the market appeared pressure to take profits and liquidate buy positions. Barchart believes that the move to raise margin requirements for coffee futures contract transactions by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) also increased selling pressure.

However, the factors supporting coffee prices have not disappeared. A report by consulting firm Safras & Mercado said that Brazil’s 2026-2027 coffee harvest has only completed 52% as of July 1, lower than the 60% level in the same period last year and the 5-year average of 55%.

Slow harvest progress increases concerns that spot supply will be tightened in the short term. Previously, heavy rains in Brazil have repeatedly disrupted coffee harvesting, transportation and drying operations.

However, Somar Meteorologia said that Minas Gerais state, Brazil’s largest coffee growing region, did not record rain in the week ending July 5. This shows that weather risks need to be assessed by production region.

Standard Arabica coffee inventories on the US Intercontinental Exchange continued to decrease, down to 362,466 bags. This is the lowest area in more than 2 years, continuing to create support for prices after the adjustment.

Conversely, Robusta inventories on the European Intercontinental Exchange increased to 4,183 lots, the highest level in about 3 and a half months. The volume of goods meeting recovery standards is one of the factors putting pressure on Robusta prices.

El Niño risk is still being monitored by businesses. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assesses that El Niño is likely to strengthen in the 2026-2027 winter of the Northern Hemisphere.

El Niño could change rainfall in Brazil during the coffee flowering period in September and October, and also affect Robusta production conditions in some Asian countries.

In terms of pressure, the Foreign Agricultural Services Agency of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA/FAS) still forecasts Brazil to have a large coffee crop in the 2026-2027 crop year. Rabobank of the Netherlands also raised its global Arabica surplus forecast for the 2026-2027 crop year from 7 million bags to 9.5 million bags.

Regarding Robusta, the Statistics Department (Ministry of Finance) of our country said that Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first 6 months of 2026 increased compared to the same period. Vietnam is the world’s largest Robusta producer, so increased supply is still a factor that can curb price increases in the medium term.