• Silver extends gains for the third day in a row, buoyed by US Dollar weakness.
• Upbeat US corporate earnings and dovish Fedspeak are weighing on the safe-haven US Dollar.
• XAG/USD corrective reversal has been capped above previous highs, at the $37.55 area.

Silver (XAG/USD) is rallying for the third consecutive day on Friday, with bulls testing July 15 highs of 38.40 at the time of writing, as the US Dollar falls alongside US Treasury yields amid higher risk appetite.

Corporate earnings reports from Netflix, the Chipmaker TSMC, PepsiCo, and United Airlines, among others, beat market expectations on Thursday, boosting demand for equities and risk-sensitive assets to the detriment of safe havens like the US Dollar.

These reports, coupled with dovish comments from Fed Governour Christopher Waller, who maintained that the bank should cut interest rates in July, citing downside risks for the labour market and economic growth, are contributing to keeping the US Dollar on the defensive on Friday.

Technical Analysis: Correcting lower within a broader bullish trend

From a technical perspective, the pair´s corrective reversal from long-term highs above $39.00 has been capped above the reverse trendline of a previous bullish channel, and the pair is trading higher again.

Bulls are testing the 15 July high at $38.40, with the 4-hour RSI steady at levels above 50, which suggests that further appreciation is likely. A confirmation above that level brings the July 14 high, at $39.15, to the focus.

A rejection from current levels, on the contrary, might find support at the mentioned trendline, now at $37.8, ahead of the July 15, 16, and 17 lows, at $37,60. Below here, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the June-July rally, and the July 6 low, at $37.25, might attract selling pressure.

The EURJPY pair kept its stability above the breached bullish channel’s resistance, which forms an extra support at 172.10, forming a new bullish rally and its fluctuation near 173.00 level.

Note that monitoring the price behavior after achieving the target at 173.40, due to the continuation of stochastic contradiction by its fluctuations below 80 level, and surpassing this level is important to reinforce the chances for resuming the bullish attack and reaching new positive stations that might extend to 173.85 and 174.40, while activating the bearish correctional track requires a sharp decline to settle below 172.00.

The expected trading range for today is between 172.10 and 173.85.

Trend forecast: Bullish

Pullback May Be Complete

Today’s behavior shows improving demand for gold and possibly the completion of another test of the lower uptrend line across the bottom of a developing bull pennant pattern. Therefore, the short-term pullback is likely complete. A daily close above the 20-Day MA will confirm strength indicated by the reclaim of the 20-Day line.

Moreover, the day is set to end with a potentially bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Although it is not distinct at the bottom of a downtrend, it does provide another piece of bullish evidence. Also, the one-day pattern, which indicates an intraday bullish reversal, can be used to alert a short-term bullish indication on a rise above the high for the day, currently at $3,352.

Potential Bull Pennant Breakout

It is important to understand however, that a hammer breakout would be happening inside a five-day price range, which may impact the response. On Wednesday, gold triggered an upside breakout of a 16-day relatively tight price range and reached a new high for the range at $3,377. The breakout failed to follow through and led to the drop to a six-day low of $3,310 today.

That high was a three-week high. So, a breakout above $3,377 will confirm a multi-week bull breakout. Of course, this would be a bullish sign and put gold in site of the top line at the top of the pennant pattern. That could lead to the pennant triggering an upside-breakout, or a consolidation of some degree first.

Weekly Trend Improves

With Wednesday’s rally a higher weekly high was established, and a higher low will be completed today. This is the second week for the pattern, and it shows improving demand. Although a break above the top trendline triggers the pennant, a more significant signal would be above the lower swing high at $3,451. An initial upside target is at $3,578, indicated by a rising ABCD pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Is Hotter Weather Enough to Extend the Rally?

Forecast models remain in alignment on increasingly hot conditions for the second half of July, particularly across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. NatGasWeather noted that the next five days will carry solid demand due to widespread heat, while days 6–15 show a “decisively hotter” outlook.

Temperatures are expected to surge into the 90s along the East Coast and hit triple digits in California and the Southwest, with modest cooling only in the northern third of the country.

These heat-driven forecasts are boosting near-term demand expectations for electricity generation, increasing the call on gas-fired power.

On Wednesday, August Nymex natural gas settled up $0.028 (+0.79%) at a new two-week high. The rally has been fueled by stronger air conditioning load and steady LNG exports, which climbed slightly to 15.1 bcf/day, according to BNEF.

Can Traders Trust the EIA Storage Signal This Week?

Attention is now turning to Thursday’s EIA storage report for the week ended July 11, which is expected to show a +45 bcf injection—above the five-year average of +41 bcf.

However, analysts are treating the print as “tricky,” factoring in distortions from the Fourth of July holiday and weaker wind generation. Last week’s inventory build of +53 bcf was bullish, falling below expectations and aligning with seasonal norms.

No news for copper price, it remains confined between $5.3200 support and $5.5100 level which represents an extra barrier against the bullish attempts, and the contradiction between the main indicators confirming delaying the bullish attempts, to recommend neutrality and wait for surpassing these levels to detect the expected targets in the near trading.

Trading success in surpassing the barrier and holding above it will reinforce the dominance of the bullish bias, which might target $5.6700, while breaking the support will force it to form bearish correctional waves, to expect reaching $5.1500 and $4.9800.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.3100 and $5.5100

Trend forecast: Neutral

Revolve Group’s stock price (RVLV) declined in latest intraday trading, under negative pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA. This drop positions the stock to potentially break a short-term upward correctional trend line, a scenario supported by negative signals starting to stream from the Stochastic after reaching extremely overbought levels — exaggerated relative to the stock’s movement.

Therefore we expect the stock to decline in upcoming trading, especially if it breaks the mentioned upward trend line, targeting the support level of $18.75.

Today’s price forecast: Bearish

XAU/USD Current price: $3,339.52

• Upbeat US data backed a Wall Street’s recovery and limited US Dollar’s advance.
• US President Trump hinted at potential trade deals with Europe and India.
• XAU/USD bounced from fresh weekly lows, bullish potential well-limited.

Gold price hovers around $3,340, recovering from a fresh weekly low of $3,309.96. The FX board is all about United States (US) headlines and sentiment. The US Dollar (USD) traded with a firmer tone throughout the day, partially backed by comments from US President Donald Trump, hinting at trade deals with India and the Eurozone, and partially supported by upbeat macroeconomic figures.

Retail Sales in the US surged my more than anticipated in June, up 0.6% after falling by 0.9% in May and much better than the 0.1% advance anticipated. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims in the week ended July 12 rose by 221K, beating the 235K expected. Finally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to 15.9 in July from the -4 posted in June, much better than the -1 anticipated by market’s analysts.

The upbeat figures boosted Wall Street, with the three major indexes rallying, limiting USD demand in the second half of the day. At the same time, the XAU/USD pair got to bounce from the aforementioned low, amid speculative interest betting on higher highs ahead for the bright metal.

Meanwhile, speculative interest has set aside concerns about the Federal Reserve (Fed) autonomy, after US President Donald Trump poured could water on speculation he may replace Fed’s Chair, Jerome Powell, before the end of his term in May 2026.

Friday will bring the preliminary estimate of the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, expected to have improved to 61.5 from the 60.7 posted in June.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The quick bounce in Gold despite the better mood suggests buyers are still willing to add on dip. The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair temporarily fell below the 38.2% retracement of the $3,452.51 – $3,247.83 decline at around $3,325, while sellers contained advances around the 50% retracement of the same decline at around $3,350. The same chart shows that the pair is currently a handful of bucks above a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs extended their advances far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, diverge within neutral levels, failing to provide clear directional clues.

The near term picture shows the bullish potential is limited, as the pair would need to run past the next Fibonacci resistance, the 61.8% retracement at $3,374.56, to turn positive. The 4-hour chart shows a mildly bearish 20 SMA extends its slide below a flat 200 SMA, while technical indicators recovered from their early lows near oversold readings, but remain within negative levels.

Support levels: 3,325.00 3,311.70 3,295.50

Resistance levels: 3,350.18 3,374.56 3,390.10