XAU/USD Current price: $3,352.64

• Market talks about US Trump aiming to fire Fed’s Chair Powell put the USD in sell-off mode.
• The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by less than anticipated in May.
• XAU/USD returns to its comfort zone at around $3,350, remains within Fibonacci levels.

Spot Gold spent the first half of the day under pressure, bottoming at $3,319.75 early in the American session. The US Dollar (USD) remained strong amid a risk-averse environment, directly linked to stubbornly high United States (US) inflation and US President Donald Trump’s attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

The US Dollar suffered a major set back across the FX board and the XAU/USD pair jumped to $3,377.32 following headlines indicating Trump is analyzing firing Powell.

CBS reported that Trump asked a group of House Republicans whether he should fire the Fed’s Chair in a meeting that took place in the Oval Office on Tuesday night. Additionally, The New York Times reported that Trump had already drafted a letter to fire the Fed Chair.

Just a few minutes afterwards, Reuters reported that Trump said he is not planning on doing anything, and that any change will be in the next eight months. It is worth remembering that Powell’s term ends in May 2026. The XAU/USD pair retreated towards the current $3,350 region. Stocks plummeted with the initial headlines but trimmed all the news-inspired losses, while the USD remains in the red.

Meanwhile, the US June Producer Price Index (PPI) data was better than anticipated. The index rose 2.3% on an annual basis in June, easing from the 2.6% previous and below the 2.5% anticipated by market players. The core annual reading printed at 2.6%, down from the 3% posted in May and below the 2.7% expected.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair keep trading between Fibonacci levels, recovering from around the 38.2% retracement of the $3,452.51 – $3,247.83 slump while topping around the 61.8% retracement of the same decline at $3,374.56. At the same time, the daily chart shows XAU/USD is currently above a mildly bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the 100 and 200 SMAs head firmly north, far below the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, keep seesawing around their midlines, lacking clear directional strength.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the pair is currently trading above all its moving averages, which, anyway, remain flat. At the same time, technical indicators aim marginally higher at around their midlines, yet lack momentum enough to confirm additional gains ahead.

Support levels: 3.325.00 3,311.70 3,295.50

Resistance levels: 3,350.18 3,374.56 3,390.10

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) edges higher, approaching the $65.00 mark.
• WTI Crude Oil gains are restricted by the 100-day moving average, providing additional resistance at $65.31.
• US Crude Oil inventory data could serve as an additional catalyst for WTI with the weekly API report due at 20.30 GMT.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil is staging a mild rebound on Tuesday, as traders continue to monitor supply and demand dynamics.

WTI Crude Oil is trading near $65.00, with intraday gains nearing 1% at the time of writing.

As the US Oil benchmark continues to trade within a well-defined range between $64.00 and $65.00, focus turns to the upcoming American Petroleum Institute (API) report.

The API will release its weekly Statistical Bulletin (WBS), providing insight into US crude oil stockpiles. According to FXStreet data, Tuesday’s report is expected to show Oil stockpiles declining by 2.26 M barrels, after a 4.277 M barrel drawdown last week. 

Will US Oil inventory data drive WTI out of its current range? 

Over the past five weeks, the report has revealed that Crude Oil stockpiles have continued to decline, reflecting rising demand. However, the Israel-Iran conflict, which ignited fears over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, had been a major contributor to depleting stockpiles. 

With easing tensions in the Middle East, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) continue to increase supply, limiting the upside move.

However, even with OPEC+ gradually adding supply, sentiment appears to be stabilizing after last week’s steep 12% slide. 

If Tuesday’s data points to a deeper-than-forecast draw, it could signal stronger domestic consumption and offer short-term support as the third quarter begins.

Crude Oil technical analysis: WTI rises toward $65.00

With WTI currently testing the $65.00 psychological level, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is providing resistance near $65.31. A move above this level could see the price retest the next round number of $66.00, opening the door for the 50% Fibonacci level of the January-April decline at $67.00.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing higher, but remains slightly bearish near 47.

WTI (US Crude) Oil daily chart

If prices fail to hold above $65.00, prices could fall to the 38.2% Fibo level, providing support at $64.18. The June low at $63.73 lies below, a break of which brings the 50-day SMA into play at $63.41.

Bulls Remain in Charge

The bulls remain in charge at the time of this writing, with trading continuing in the upper half of the day’s trading range. A daily close above yesterday’s high of $3.54 to a new trend high and the 20-Day line, while a daily close above $3.57 confirms the swing breakout. Nevertheless, this is bullish behavior, and it establishes additional confirmation that the bearish correction is most likely complete.

Next Pivot, $3.75

If the price of natural gas keeps rising before a pullback, it heads towards the next pivot zone from the lower swing high at $3.75. A breakout above that level will trigger another bullish reversal signal. It is interesting to note that the convergence of the 20-Day MA, the 50-Day MA, and an AVWAP line from the April low, converged as price broke through. In addition, the prior uptrend line (dashed) was also part of the resistance zone. This makes today’s breakout potentially significant, and it increases the chance for a relatively shallow pullback, when it does occur.

200-Day Moving Average Support

Since the $3.53 price zone remains nearby, the 200-Day MA, now at $3.44, is a key potential support area. If natural gas continues to trade above the line, a bullish posture remains. In addition, a weekly bull breakout occurred this week, and it looks likely that the week will end above last week’s high of $3.47. That would confirm the breakout on a weekly basis.

$3.75 – Initial Upside Target

A key potential resistance zone shows from around the interim swing high at $3.75 to a prior swing high of $3.84 from May. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is within that range at $3.77. Given the likelihood that a bottom is complete, the supply and demand dynamics in a pullback should provide clues. In the short-term, the next potential resistance zone above today’s high is around the 50% retracement at $3.65.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver (XAG/USD) holds steady near $37.80 on Wednesday, recovering modestly from a mild pullback earlier in the week.
• The headline PPI came in flat for June, while Core PPI also missed expectations.
• Core PPI also disappointed, printing at 0.0% MoM and 2.6% YoY, both below market estimates.

Silver (XAG/USD) is holding firm near the $38.00 level on Wednesday, drawing support after US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June came in softer than expected. At the time of writing, the metal is trading around $37.90 per ounce.

Silver showed little reaction after the release of the latest US PPI data, which came in softer than expected. Headline PPI was flat in June, showing no monthly growth, compared to the 0.2% increase markets had expected, and down from a 0.3% rise in May. On an annual basis, PPI slowed to 2.3%, also below the 2.5% forecast and the 2.6% reading from the previous month.

Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was also weaker than expected. It came in at 0.0% MoM, missing the 0.2% forecast and down from 0.1% in May. On a yearly basis, Core PPI eased to 2.6%, compared to 2.7% expected and 3.0% in the previous month.

This follows Tuesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed headline inflation in line with expectations, but core inflation came in slightly softer. The mix of inflation data has reduced the urgency for rate cuts, keeping the US Dollar under modest pressure while non-yielding assets, such as silver, remain supported.

The metal touched a fresh 14-year high of $39.13 on Monday before retreating slightly as investors booked profits. However, the broader technical setup remains bullish, with buyers still in control amid lingering safe-haven demand and cautious risk sentiment.

On the daily chart, Silver (XAG/USD) is trading just above the midline of a rising parallel channel that has guided price action since early April. The recent move higher followed a breakout from a multi-week consolidation range between $35.50 and $37.00, which had kept the metal in check through much of June and early July.

The breakout was confirmed by a strong bullish daily candle, propelling Silver toward the channel’s upper boundary near $39.00. Following a modest round of profit-taking, the metal has stabilized near the midpoint of the channel, which now serves as dynamic support, suggesting that the uptrend remains intact and well-supported.

The 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $36.82 continues to offer key dynamic support and has been consistently respected throughout the current uptrend, reinforcing the underlying bullish structure.

Immediate resistance is seen at the 14-year high of $39.13. A decisive daily close above this level would confirm the next leg of the uptrend and open the door toward the psychological $40.00 mark. If bulls manage to sustain momentum above $40.00, the upper boundary of the rising channel around $40.50 could act as the next upside target.

On the downside, initial support is located at $37.50, which marks the upper boundary of the previous consolidation zone. A break below this level would put focus back on the 21-day EMA at $36.82. Deeper losses may target stronger support near $36.00, aligning with the lower edge of the rising channel.

Momentum indicators continue to favor the bullish scenario. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased slightly from overbought conditions, and now stands near 63.50. This pullback in the RSI indicates a healthy consolidation phase rather than a trend reversal.

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains firmly in positive territory with a steady histogram and no signs of bearish divergence, signaling that upward momentum remains intact.

Bulls Remain in Charge

Nonetheless, the bulls remain in charge but within a pennant consolidation pattern. This week’s minor pullback reached a low of $3,320, which was a successful test of support around the 50-Day MA and a short downtrend line. Today was the second day in a row that support was retained. Whether there is a slightly deeper pullback before a new rally attempt remains to be seen.

But an overall bullish outlook would not start to change until there was a decline below an interim swing low at $2,283. And the lower boundary line for a bullish pennant pattern may be significant as a drop below it gives a bearish signal and the possibility of a failure of the bull pennant.

Lower Volatility Leads to Higher Volatility

Volatility in gold will likely remain muted until there is a breakout of the pennant consolidation range. Look at the monthly chart (not shown) for a clearer view of the contraction in volatility over the past few months. These areas of trend, where the trading range contracts over time, can often lead to fast-moving markets. Gold’s monthly chart is interesting as May through June (to date) are inside months relative to April and July is inside the range of June. A pennant breakout triggers above the top pattern boundary line, but a more convincing signal occurs above the swing high at $3,451 (B).

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Natural gas prices activated with stochastic attempt to provide positive momentum, to notice forming some bullish waves, approaching from the barrier at $3.6000.

The current bullish rebound will not threaten the bearish scenario, unless breaching the mentioned barrier and holding above it, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering the negative momentum to ease the mission for reaching $3.350, then repeat the pressure at $3.180 to find an exit to resume the suggested negative attack.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.180 and $3.600

Trend forecast: Bearish