The EURJPY pair moves away from 182.00 support, affected by the positivity of the main indicators, attacking the barrier at 184.20 which represents %66.8 Fibonacci corrective level as appears in the above image.
Note that the continuation of the stability below the barrier that might push it to provide new bearish trading, reaching 183.40 and 182.65, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will confirm its readiness to form strong bullish waves, to expect reaching 184.80, attempting to reach the next target near 185.45.
The expected trading range for today is between 183.40 and 184.20
Brent crude is seen averaging $85 per barrel this year, and West Texas Intermediate could see an average price of $79, Goldman Sachs commodity analysts said in a note released Sunday. They added that the supply loss from the crisis is going to peak at 17 million barrels daily.
The price update is from an earlier outlook of $77 on average per barrel of Brent crude and $72 on average per barrel of WTI.
At the time of writing, the international benchmark was trading at $112.69 per barrel, with the U.S. benchmark at $99.60 per barrel, both up from Friday’s close as the deadline for the ultimatum that President Donald Trump gave the Iranian leadership draws near.
Trump issued the ultimatum on Saturday, urging Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours of his TruthSocial post or face the “obliteration” of its power plants by U.S. forces. In response, Iran said it would target the energy and water desalination infrastructure of U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf and Israel.
Goldman assumed the disruption in tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will last six weeks, and then shipments of crude from the Gulf will gradually recover within a month, pushing oil prices down. Iran effectively closed the Strait in the days following the joint U.S. and Israeli attacks on its leadership, cutting off 20% of global oil flows almost completely. Not everyone is as optimistic as Goldman analysts, with some observers suggesting the disruption could last for months even if the bombings stop.
“The largest oil supply shock ever will likely lead policymakers and markets to recognize the structural risks from the high concentration of production and spare capacity in the Middle East and from the vulnerability of energy infrastructure,” the Goldman commodity team wrote in its note.
Following the bearish action seen in the first half of the day on Tuesday, EUR/USD staged a decisive rebound in the American session to end the day virtually unchanged. The pair fluctuates in a narrow channel at around 1.1600 in the European session on Wednesday as investors await clarity regarding the Middle East conflict.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.49%
-0.61%
-0.30%
0.51%
0.40%
0.00%
0.24%
EUR
0.49%
-0.12%
0.22%
1.01%
0.88%
0.51%
0.75%
GBP
0.61%
0.12%
0.28%
1.13%
1.02%
0.63%
0.80%
JPY
0.30%
-0.22%
-0.28%
0.78%
0.69%
0.27%
0.44%
CAD
-0.51%
-1.01%
-1.13%
-0.78%
-0.09%
-0.51%
-0.27%
AUD
-0.40%
-0.88%
-1.02%
-0.69%
0.09%
-0.39%
-0.23%
NZD
-0.01%
-0.51%
-0.63%
-0.27%
0.51%
0.39%
0.17%
CHF
-0.24%
-0.75%
-0.80%
-0.44%
0.27%
0.23%
-0.17%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Israeli Channel 12 claimed late Tuesday that a one-month ceasefire in the United States’ and Israel’s war against Iran could be announced in accordance with the mechanism developed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Other reporting on the matter suggested that the proposal is complex and has 15 points that need to be agreed upon for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened. The framework of the proposal is said to be negotiated during the ceasefire period. The US Dollar (USD) came under bearish pressure with the immediate reaction to this headline and helped EUR/USD gather recovery momentum.
Nevertheless, investors remain cautious with the Iranian side dismissing the claims of negotiations. Additionally, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said early Wednesday that they had fired missiles at Israel as well as military bases hosting US forces in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain.
Meanwhile, “the case for action becomes stronger when deviations from our inflation target grow larger and more persistent,” European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday. This comment seems to be further supporting the Euro.
In the absence of high-tier data releases, investors will continue to pay close attention to fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. In case markets grow increasingly optimistic about the sides reaching a ceasefire to negotiate the terms of a potential agreement, risk flows could dominate the action in financial markets and allow EUR/USD to push higher. On the other hand, Oil prices could rise again and trigger another bout of flight to safety if Iran rejects any attempts to end the conflict. In this scenario, EUR/USD could lose its traction.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1605. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 20- and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and has reclaimed the 100-period SMA near 1.1563, suggesting buyers are gaining control despite the longer-term 200-period SMA still capping the broader trend near 1.1700. Bollinger Bands flatten with spot trading in the upper half of the envelope, indicating firm but not overstretched upside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 reinforces a positive momentum backdrop rather than overbought conditions.
Immediate support emerges at 1.1530, reinforced by the nearby 50-period SMA, with further downside protection at 1.1500 ahead of the more distant 1.1460 level. On the topside, initial resistance stands at 1.1630, aligning with the upper Bollinger Bank, ahead of the static level at 1.1670 and the 200-period SMA in the 1.1690-1.1700 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
(The story was corrected on March 25 at 09:40 GMT to say that the Israeli Channel 12’s claim about a possible ceasefire is for a one-month period, not for 12 months, and corrected again at 10:35 GMT to fix the misspelling of Steve Witkoff.)
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The GBPJPY pair repeats the attempts of forming bullish waves, taking advantage of its stability within the minor bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image, besides the continuation of forming an extra support at 212.00 level, to rally towards 213.20 in this morning trading.
The price needs a new bullish momentum, which allows it to surpass the intraday barrier at 213.30, opening the way towards the main bullish stations that are located near 214.05 reaching to 215.2, while changing the main trend is represented by the attempt of breaking the bullish channel’s support at 211.40.
The expected trading range for today is between 212.10 and 214.05
Gold sees a brief recovery stint for the second straight day on Wednesday, gaining roughly 2.5% so far, courtesy of the renewed market optimism induced by potential ceasefire talks between the United States (US) and Iran.
Gold recovers amid US-Iran ceasefire hopes
Gold buyers look to build on the upswing beyond the $4,600 level as the haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) retreats on the revival of risk trades.
Reuters reported that “the US is seeking a month-long ceasefire in its war on Iran and had sent a 15-point plan to Iran for discussion, raising hopes for a resumption of oil exports out of the Persian Gulf.”
The hopes for a Mideast ceasefire weighed heavily on Oil prices and eased concerns over higher inflation and interest rates. This, in turn, helped fuel a risk rally across the financial markets, sending US Treasury bond yields lower alongside the Greenback, while providing the much-needed relief to the bright metal.
However, a lack of details and certainty on when the ceasefire talks will be held, and whether there will be significant progress on a potential de-escalation, could keep Gold buyers on edge.
“Diplomatic sources say negotiations may begin in Islamabad next week, though no formal agreement is in place, the Guardian reports.
Meanwhile, tensions persist as two sources told Reuters on Tuesday that the Pentagon is set to send thousands of soldiers from the US Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.
Additionally, the technical setup on the daily chart continues to lean in favor of sellers in the near-term despite the price defending the critical the $4,400 level.
Therefore, it remains to be seen if Gold sustains the recovery momentum going forward.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The near-term bias is mildly bearish as price has slipped below the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which now cap the market near $4,970 and $4,970–4,975 respectively, while the rising 100-day and 200-day SMAs far beneath price highlight that the broader uptrend remains intact. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from oversold territory toward the mid-30s, which suggests fading downside momentum but does not yet indicate a strong recovery phase.
Adding credence to the persistent bearish sentiment, the 21-day SMA is on the verge of crossing the 50-day SMA from above, which if materialized on a daily closing basis would validate a Bear Cross.
Initial resistance emerges at the 21-day SMA around $4,970, followed by the 50-day SMA near $4,970–4,975, where a sustained break would open the way toward the $5,000 area. On the downside, immediate support is seen near the recent low around $4,490, with a decisive loss of this level exposing the rising 100-day SMA near $4,620 and then the 200-day SMA around $4,110. A daily close back above the clustered short-term averages would ease the bearish bias, while failure to reclaim them keeps focus on the lower supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
EUR/JPY remains stronger for the fourth consecutive trading day, hovering around 184.30 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the spot is rising above the upper boundary of a descending triangle, which typically signals a bullish reversal. However, low volumes suggest a lack of conviction from buyers. Traders will likely look for strong volume confirmation to validate the breakout and avoid false signals.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 stays above its midline and confirms improving momentum rather than overbought conditions, suggesting buyers retain control after the recent consolidation.
The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while the nine-day average rises above it, indicating short-term upside pressure within an established uptrend. The currency cross may explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.
On the downside, the immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 183.77. A return to the descending triangle would expose the 50-day EMA support at 183.28. Further declines below the medium-term average would revive the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the area around the lower boundary of the descending triangle around 181.60, followed by the three-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.03%
0.06%
0.06%
0.06%
0.33%
0.21%
0.14%
EUR
-0.03%
0.03%
0.06%
0.03%
0.30%
0.17%
0.10%
GBP
-0.06%
-0.03%
0.02%
-0.00%
0.27%
0.16%
0.08%
JPY
-0.06%
-0.06%
-0.02%
-0.00%
0.26%
0.14%
0.07%
CAD
-0.06%
-0.03%
0.00%
0.00%
0.27%
0.16%
0.08%
AUD
-0.33%
-0.30%
-0.27%
-0.26%
-0.27%
-0.11%
-0.19%
NZD
-0.21%
-0.17%
-0.16%
-0.14%
-0.16%
0.11%
-0.08%
CHF
-0.14%
-0.10%
-0.08%
-0.07%
-0.08%
0.19%
0.08%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Despite forming mixed trading by platinum price, its stability within the bearish channel’s levels, which represents an extension for the main resistance at $2045.00 level, besides the attempt to form an additional barrier by the moving average 55 by its fluctuations near $1980.00 makes us keep the bearish scenario, due to its move towards $1840.00.
The continuation of facing negative pressures will push it to form strong bearish waves, to expect attacking $1775.00 level soon, attempting to reach the bearish channel’s support at $1665.00.
The expected trading range for today is between $1775.00 and $1910.00
