Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats late in the North American session, down by over 6.80% in the day, poised to finish the week with losses of more than 15.70%, posting its second-largest weekly loss since the one that ended down 17.39% on January 30. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $67.89.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Although turned bearish this week, Silver remains upward biased as long as the bulls keep spot prices above the February 6 swing low of $64.10. In the short term, XAG/USD turned negative after falling below the 100-day SMA at $72.55, which exacerbated a drop below $70.00, towards a six-week low of $65.52.
Nevertheless, in the medium term, the market structure has respected the successive series of higher lows and higher highs, keeping the bulls in the driver’s seat.
Momentum notably favours sellers, as evidenced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which pierced its neutral level and fell sharply toward oversold territory. A drop below the RSI’s 30 level and a quick jump back above it could open the door to form a bottom, IF the RSI consolidates steadily, registering higher peaks and troughs.
For a bull market recovery, XAG/USD needs to reclaim $70.00 and the 100-day SMA. Once surpassed, the next stop is the cycle low-turned-resistance at $77.98, the March 3 daily low.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
XAG/USD Daily Chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
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Energy prices are set to fall on 1 April when the new price cap comes into effect, but war in the Middle East could mean energy prices soar in the summer.
The new Ofgem energy price cap period will begin on 1 April, with energy bills for most households set to fall by 7%, the equivalent of £117 a year.
The cut comes after the government announced it would scrap some green levies from household bills in the Autumn Budget worth around £150.
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The April to June period should relieve the pressure that high energy prices have been having on many in the UK, but the US-Iran war means lower prices are probably going to be short-lived.
We look at where energy prices are forecast to go in 2026, and why conflict in the Middle East means you are likely to pay more for your energy.
Where will energy prices go in April?
Gas and electricity bills will fall on 1 April as the new energy price cap will bring the annual average energy bill for a dual-fuel household paying for their energy by direct debit to £1,641.
That is a saving of £117 per year when compared to the current January to March price cap of £1,758 – but remember, the cap is a cap on unit prices, not your total bill, so your actual bill is determined by what you use.
Bills have been able to fall in April after the government said it will remove some environmental levies that fund eco schemes that add to costs for households.
The government said the majority of households in the UK will benefit from the policy and the savings will apply to all tariffs, including variable tariffs, fixed tariffs, tracker tariffs and time-of-use tariffs.
The savings will come despite an overall increase to the cost of servicing the UK’s energy infrastructure that was set to increase bills by around £57 had the government not stepped in.
Lower bills will be welcomed by households in the second quarter of the year, but how long will the savings last?
Where will energy prices go from July onwards?
Ofgem, the energy regulator,will confirm the next price cap, covering the July to September period, by 27 May. It is widely expected to announce an increase in prices.
Cornwall Insight, an energy consultancy well-regarded for the accuracy of its price cap predictions, expects the July price cap to rise to £1,972 – an increase of around £331, or 20%.
Before the current conflict, Cornwall Insight expected the July price cap to be £1,645.
The reason for the rise is that the global energy market has been thrown into turmoil following the joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, which led to increased hostilities in the Middle East, where a significant proportion of the world’s oil comes from.
In particular, the conflict has led to Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow naval passageway between the coasts of Iran and Oman through which around 20% of the world’s oil is transported.
Since the beginning of the conflict very few ships have managed to safely pass through the strait, pushing up global oil prices. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil was around $70 before the conflict – it is now north of $100.
Increases to the cost of oil have major knock-on effects on the prices of many other commodities which are produced using oil.
The supply of liquified natural gas (LNG), which makes up around 33% of the UK’s energy supply and is mainly imported, has also risen significantly since the start of the conflict.
Ofgem calculates the price cap by observing the average wholesale price of energy over a three-month period, and as this period will include spiking prices due to the war, we can expect the price cap to increase.
Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall Insight, said: “The latest forecast puts the role of wholesale markets firmly back in the spotlight and illustrates how exposed UK households remain to international market movements.
“While the rise is eye‑catching, any immediate concern should be tempered. We are still early in the assessment period for the July cap, and what happens in the energy markets over the next three months will be the key factor, rather than this spike alone.”
Other forecasters have similar predictions.
Economists at the Bank of England (BoE) expect household energy prices to increase in the summer when the July price cap kicks in, helping push inflation to 3.5% in the third quarter of 2026.
EDF Energy expects the price cap will rise £217 on 1 July, from £1,641 to £1,858. This prediction comes in £112 higher than predictions before the conflict. It says prices could rise again in October, to £1,919, and start 2027 at £1,928.
Meanwhile, Economists at consultancy Oxford Economics expect the price cap to rise by 19% in July.
How to get help with paying your energy bills
If you’re struggling to afford your energy bills, your energy supplier may offer support with hardship grants. Octopus Energy has Octo Assist and British Gas has the British Gas Energy Trust.
You may be able to get a repayment holiday. This is where you ask your supplier to pause your repayments for a short amount of time to give you some breathing space.
Another option is to agree to an affordable payment plan. You will pay fixed amounts over a set period of time, which will cover what you owe plus an amount for your current use.
If you are on benefits, you might be able to repay your debt directly from your benefits through the Fuel Direct Scheme.
According to Citizens Advice, the Fuel Direct Scheme can be a good option if you can’t agree on a plan to pay back your debt, and it’s usually better than getting a prepayment meter.
Additionally, some government schemes give some households money towards paying their energy bills.
The Warm Home Discount is offered to households in receipt of some means-tested benefits who use participating energy suppliers and provides £150 of credit that is automatically paid towards your energy bill.
Meanwhile, if you are a pensioner with an income of £35,000 or less, you will be eligible for the Winter Fuel Payment, which provides retirees with up to £300 each winter.
Where will heating oil prices go after recent eye-watering price hikes?
Some households in Britain are facing the prospect of an over 100% rise to the cost of heating their homes after the Iran war has led to a surge in the price of heating oil.
Disruptions to the supply of oil, which heating oil is derived from, have meant the price of the fuel increased from around 60p per litre on 28 February to more than £1.31 per litre on 20 March.
Households reliant on heating oil are not protected by a regulator in the same way mains customers are protected by the price cap, making them more sensitive to market forces.
For this reason it is especially difficult to predict where the price of heating oil will go in the future as no cap is agreed-upon in advance.
This being said, one way to get a rough idea of where the price of heating oil may go in the future is by looking at where the wider oil market will go.
EUR/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.1550 after posting impressive gains on Thursday. Comments from policymakers could impact the pair’s action in the near term.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-1.30%
-1.39%
-0.76%
-0.07%
-1.32%
-1.58%
-0.16%
EUR
1.30%
-0.07%
0.48%
1.24%
-0.02%
-0.29%
1.14%
GBP
1.39%
0.07%
0.68%
1.31%
0.06%
-0.21%
1.28%
JPY
0.76%
-0.48%
-0.68%
0.72%
-0.57%
-0.80%
0.62%
CAD
0.07%
-1.24%
-1.31%
-0.72%
-1.30%
-1.51%
-0.09%
AUD
1.32%
0.02%
-0.06%
0.57%
1.30%
-0.27%
1.17%
NZD
1.58%
0.29%
0.21%
0.80%
1.51%
0.27%
1.41%
CHF
0.16%
-1.14%
-1.28%
-0.62%
0.09%
-1.17%
-1.41%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Following Wednesday’s sharp decline, EUR/USD reversed its direction on Thursday and gained more than 1% on the day, supported by the European Central Bank’s relatively hawkish guidance.
The ECB left policy settings unchanged, as anticipated, after the March meeting. “The war in the Middle East has made outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth,” the ECB noted in its policy statement.
In the post-meeting press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that a prolonged war could increase energy prices for longer and erode incomes. Lagarde further added that risks to inflation are tilted to the upside in the near term and said that they could have a “temporary, targeted and tailored” response to the energy shock.
Early Friday, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel argued that the ECB would need to raise rates in April if the price outlook sours. On a more neutral note, policymaker José Luis Escrivá said that the situation is highly uncertain and volatile, adding that they must continues to assess a wealth of information before taking a policy step.
The economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases on Friday. Hence, investors will continue to pay close attention to comments from policymakers.
In case ECB officials voice their willingness to consider policy-tightening in response to rising inflation, the Euro could preserve its strength.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hours chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1576. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1522 and the 50-period SMA near 1.1528, while remaining below the declining 100- and 200-period SMAs around 1.1600 and 1.1715, respectively. This alignment suggests a recovery phase within a broader downside context, with the recent push away from the lower Bollinger Band toward the mid-band reinforcing improving momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.7 stays above the 50 line, signaling steady bullish pressure without overbought conditions.
Immediate support is seen at 1.1530 (static level), reinforced by the nearby 20- and 50-period SMA, with a deeper floor at 1.1500 (round level) ahead of 1.1460 (static level) if sellers regain control. On the upside, initial resistance comes at 1.1600 (100-period SMA, upper line of the Bollinger Band) ahead of the horizontal barrier near 1.1670 and the 200-period SMA at 1.1715.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Price movements in platinum are often sharper than gold or silver due to its limited availability and reliance on a few global mining regions. Automotive regulations, global production levels, and technology usage influence the platinum price today. As platinum becomes more relevant in clean energy applications, its daily rate has gained importance for both buyers and investors.
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U.S. natural gas prices are nearly flat on Friday with speculators hoping for a repeat performance of yesterday’s 3% gains. Thursday’s sharply higher close was fueled by a jump in European natural gas prices to a 3-year high. The sympathy spike in April natural gas futures was in reaction to an attack on Qatar’s natural gas export plant at Ras Laffan Industrial City. While the short-term impact on U.S. natural gas prices is subdued when compared to the movement in European prices, the longer-term view is more bullish given that the damage to the Qatar facility may take more than three years to repair.
Goldman Sachs oil price forecast: Oil prices are already flashing warning signs—and the numbers are hard to ignore. Brent crude is hovering above $104, while recent spikes pushed it past $110 per barrel. According to the latest Goldman Sachs oil price forecast, the world could be entering a prolonged era of triple-digit oil, potentially lasting through 2027. That’s not just a short-term shock—it’s a structural shift driven by supply disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and tightening global reserves.
Oil markets showed mixed movement today, with WTI crude (CL00) holding near $95.50, slipping slightly by 0.05% amid steady U.S. supply signals. In contrast, Brent crude (BZC00) rose 0.80% to $104.61, reflecting continued global supply concerns and geopolitical tensions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz. The widening gap between Brent and WTI highlights stronger international risk premiums. Meanwhile, natural gas (NG00) declined 3.47% to $3.06, indicating easing short-term demand or improved supply conditions.
Goldman Sachs oil price forecast: Will oil stay above $100 for years amid Middle East crisis?
The Goldman Sachs oil price forecast has shifted sharply upward due to one critical factor: supply risk. When nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil flows through a single chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz, any disruption sends shockwaves across global markets.
Right now, that chokepoint is under extreme pressure. The ongoing Iran-linked conflict has already damaged key infrastructure, including gas facilities and export terminals. Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, the largest LNG hub in the world, saw its export capacity drop by 17%, with repair timelines stretching up to five years. That’s not a temporary disruption—it’s a long-term constraint.
Goldman analysts highlight that past supply shocks don’t resolve quickly. In fact, historical data shows that production can remain 40% below normal levels even four years after major disruptions. This is largely due to infrastructure damage, underinvestment, and geopolitical uncertainty. When you combine these factors, the Goldman Sachs oil price forecast becomes clear: prices are likely to trend higher, not lower.
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Will oil stay above $100 for years as supply disruptions continue?
The possibility that oil will stay above $100 for years is no longer just a worst-case scenario—it’s increasingly becoming a base case. Goldman Sachs explicitly states that in high-risk scenarios involving prolonged disruptions, oil prices could remain above $100 well into 2027.
Here’s why. If the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained for even two months, and production recovers slowly to just 2 million barrels per day, Brent crude could average around $111 by late 2027. That’s a sustained period of elevated pricing, not a temporary spike.Even in a more optimistic scenario, where oil flows gradually recover starting next year, prices may only ease into the $70 range by late 2026. That still implies years of volatility and elevated costs before any meaningful normalization.
Meanwhile, the gap between Brent and WTI is widening. U.S. production increases have helped cushion domestic prices slightly, with WTI trading near $95, but global benchmarks remain significantly higher. This divergence reflects a fragmented market where regional supply dynamics matter more than ever.
How are geopolitics and the Strait of Hormuz driving oil prices higher?
To understand the Goldman Sachs oil price forecast, you have to look at geopolitics. The Strait of Hormuz is not just a shipping lane—it’s the lifeline of global energy markets. With around 20% of the world’s oil passing through it, even partial disruptions can trigger massive price swings.
The current conflict has entered its third week, with no clear end in sight. Missile strikes, drone interceptions, and ongoing threats have kept the region on edge. Iran has signaled that the strait may not return to normal conditions anytime soon, raising fears of prolonged supply bottlenecks.
At the same time, retaliatory strikes have escalated risks. Damage to Iran’s South Pars field and Qatar’s LNG infrastructure has created a cascading effect across energy markets. These disruptions don’t just reduce supply—they increase uncertainty, which markets tend to price in aggressively.
This is exactly why the Goldman Sachs oil price forecast remains elevated. Markets are not just reacting to current shortages—they are pricing in future risks.
What does the Goldman Sachs oil price forecast mean for gas prices and the economy?
For consumers, the Goldman Sachs oil price forecast translates directly into higher costs. U.S. gasoline prices have already climbed to $3.91 per gallon—the highest level since October 2022. And if oil stays above $100, those prices could rise even further.
Higher energy costs ripple across the economy. Transportation becomes more expensive. Manufacturing costs increase. Inflation pressures build. Central banks may be forced to keep interest rates higher for longer, slowing economic growth.
At the same time, governments are scrambling for solutions. The U.S. has committed to releasing over 172 million barrels from strategic reserves as part of a coordinated effort with global partners. There are also discussions around easing sanctions on Iranian oil to increase supply.
However, these measures may only provide temporary relief. Structural supply issues—like damaged infrastructure and limited spare capacity—cannot be fixed overnight. That’s why the Goldman Sachs oil price forecast continues to emphasize long-term risks.
Could anything bring oil prices down despite the Goldman Sachs oil price forecast?
Despite the bullish outlook, there are still factors that could ease prices. OPEC holds significant spare capacity, and a coordinated increase in production could stabilize markets if the Strait of Hormuz reopens fully.
Demand could also weaken. High prices tend to reduce consumption over time by encouraging fuel efficiency and accelerating the shift to alternative energy sources. If global economic growth slows, oil demand may decline, putting downward pressure on prices.
But here’s the catch: these factors take time. Supply disruptions can happen overnight, but demand adjustments occur gradually. That imbalance is what keeps the Goldman Sachs oil price forecast tilted toward higher prices.
The 160-yen level is a large figure in the USD/JPY pair at the moment that a lot of people will be watching. If it were to get broken – it would be a big deal.
So far, it is proving very tough.
The US dollar plunged against the Japanese yen during trading on Thursday as we can see the 160-yen level is still being defended. The 160-yen level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be watching because if we could break above there, then we could really start to challenge somewhere near the 160.40-yen level a breakout and a move that tops the highs all the way back to 1990.
With that being the case, I think you have to be very cautious, but you also have to understand that this is a market that will continue to be very noisy.
Interest Rates and Central Bank Divergence
We just had the Federal Reserve come out and sound pretty hawkish and at the same time, we have the Bank of Japan basically doing nothing but suggesting that perhaps we will continue to see very easy rates coming out of Japan.
I just don’t see a situation where this changes, but obviously there was a bit of a reaction to the chatter coming out of Japan. I think this is temporary and I do believe that we will end up seeing a little bit of a bounce.
I like the idea of buying a bounce, but I need to see a little bit of a V-pattern on shorter-term charts to get involved. I’m looking at the 158-yen level as a major support level but even if we break down below there, I think we’re looking at the 156 level as a floor.
I am looking for opportunities. I do believe that it will end up being offered here, but it is going to be noisy. After all we don’t break a 36-year high easily very often, so a little bit of a pullback and another surge higher make quite a bit of sense.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
