• Silver eases from a three-week high retested earlier this Friday.
• The setup supports prospects for the emergence of dip-buyers.
• A break below the $32.00 mark might negate the positive bias.

Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower after testing the three-week top during the Asian session on Friday and currently trades around the mid-$33.00s, down 0.30% for the day. The technical setup, however, warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful depreciating move.

This week’s breakout above the $33.00 round figure, representing the top end of a multi-day-old range and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall, was seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still far from being in the overbought territory. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside.

Hence, any subsequent slide might still be seen as a buying opportunity near the $33.00 hurdle breakpoint, now turned support. A convincing break below the said handle might prompt some technical selling and drag the XAG/USD further toward the $32.40 support en route to the $32.10-$32.00 area. Some follow-through selling will suggest that the recent recovery from the $28.00 mark, or the year-to-date low, has run out of steam.

On the flip side, the $33.70 area now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, above which the XAG/USD could aim to reclaim the $34.00 mark. The momentum could extend further towards the $34.30 intermediate resistance en route to the next relevant barrier near the $34.55-$34.60 region, or the highest level since October 2024 touched last month. The white metal could eventually aim to conquer the $35.00 psychological mark.

Silver 4-hour chart

• Gold price defends weekly gains early Friday, finding stiff resistance near $3,370.  
• The US Dollar picks up bids on the US trade deal optimism with its Asian allies.
• The daily technical setup remains in favor of Gold buyers, with $3,400 a key topside barrier.

Gold price holds Thursday’s rebound, defending weekly gains near $3,350 early Friday. Gold buyers catch a breather, taking stock of the trade developments globally after US President Donald Trump’s tariffs whiplash.

Gold price pauses its rebound as US Dollar rebounds

This Friday, the US Dollar (USD) sees fresh signs of life as risk sentiment remains upbeat on optimism for trade deals. Reuters reported that the Trump administration seems to be progressing in early trade talks with Asian allies South Korea and Japan.

On Thursday, Seoul’s delegation said that both sides aim to craft a trade package before the pause on reciprocal tariffs is lifted in July. Meanwhile, Japanese Finance Minister Kato Katsunobu held talks with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Washington on Thursday, noting that Bessent did not raise the Yen’s level in bilateral talks.

In evidence of further progress, Japan’s chief negotiator, Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, will hold a second round of trade talks with Bessent next week.

Receding recession fears, following encouraging earnings reports from American tech giants, offer some respite to the beleaguered US Dollar. Shares of Google parent Alphabet jumped over 3% in after-hours after its first-quarter earnings beat analysts’ expectations.

The short-term technical outlook for the Gold price remains constructive as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds firm above the midline, currently near 65.

Gold price must find acceptance above the $3,400 threshold for resuming the uptrend toward the record highs of $3,500. Further up, the rising trendline resistance at $3,583 will come into play.

If the upside loses traction, a 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) test at $3,175 will be inevitable on a sustained move below Wednesday’s low of $3,260.

The line in the sand for Gold buyers is seen at the $3,200 barrier.

• Silver steady on Thursday, supported by weaker US Dollar and lower bond yields.
• Traders eye upside amid lingering uncertainty over full US-China tariff rollback.
• Fed officials remain cautious, signal data-dependent path amid rising economic ambiguity.

Silver finished Thursday’s session virtually unchanged, yet it remains near weekly highs of $33.65, with traders poised to push the grey metal higher.

XAG/USD clings to $33.65 as Fed uncertainty and falling Treasury yields bolster precious metals despite tariff relief hopes

An improvement in risk appetite was sponsored by a de-escalation of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on China, which weighed on silver prices. However, China’s Commerce Ministry Spokesman urged the US to lift all duties on Chinese imports “if it really wants to solve the problem.”

Precious metals remain underpinned by the fall of US Treasury yields. This consequently weakened the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), dropped 0.50% down to 99.28.

US economic data showed the labor market remains solid following the release of the latest Initial Jobless Claims figures, which came in aligned with estimates. US Durable Goods Orders smashed forecasts of 2% in March and grew 9.2% Month over Month due to a jump in transportation orders.

A myriad of Fed speakers led by Governor Waller grabbed the headlines. Waller said that it is unlikely to know the impact of tariffs in July, adding that the second half of 2025 will bring more clarity. Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said that uncertainty is weighing on businesses, and if data warrants it, the Fed’s next move could be in June.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Amid this backdrop, Silver could remain trading near the week’s high but buyers need to clear key resistance levels. the first ceiling would be $34.00, followed by the current year-to-date (YTD) high of $34.58. Once those two levels are taken out, traders could target the $35.00 mark.

Conversely, if XAG/USD falls below $33.00, sellers will be tempted to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $32.63. Once cleared, the next support would be $32.00.

Bearish Inside Day Forms

Today, Thursday, crude oil consolidated forming an inside day with a high of $63.73 and low at $62.40. There are a couple indications of weakness provided from the day. Notice that the day’s range is in the lower half of Wednesday’s range, and at the time of this writing, crude oil is trading below the halfway point of the range and looks likely to close in a similar relatively bearish position. Moreover, the high for the day found resistance at a significant price level from May 2023 (dashed horizontal). That was the lowest traded price for crude oil until the recent sharp fall.

Below $61.94 Points Lower

A decline below today’s low provides the next sign of weakening, while a deeper bearish retracement is signaled on a drop below Wednesday’s low of $61.94. Notice that there is also a small rising trend line across the bottom of recent price action. That line will already be broken if Wednesday’s low is triggered. If the decline is triggered there are two key areas to watch for support. The first is at a recent interim swing low of $60.40 and the 50% retracement at $60.27. Then, further down is a range from $59.08 to $58.86, defined by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and prior daily support, respectively.

Weak Weekly Close Looks Likely

There is one more day to the week with crude oil set to establish a second consecutive higher weekly high and higher weekly low. It reflects short term strength. But bearish price action following this week’s high puts crude oil in a position to end lower for the period and likely below last week’s high of $64.72. Therefore, the upside weekly breakout would not be confirmed on that time frame.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

XAU/USD Current price: $3,332.42

• A better mood keeps market players away from safe-haven assets.
• United States data was mixed, yet Wall Street extends its recent rally.
• XAU/USD struggles to recover its bullish momentum despite back above $3,300.

Gold price recovered the $3,300 mark late on Wednesday, extending its recovery up to $3,367.67 in the early Asian session. The XAU/USD pair, however, retreated from such a high and spent most of the day consolidating in the current $3,330 area, as a better market mood keeps safe-haven assets out of investors’ radar.

Sentiment was mixed throughout the day, with caution present through the Asian and European sessions amid headlines coming from China, indicating that there were no ongoing discussions with the US on tariffs, according to a Ministry of Commerce Spokesperson.

Market players reduced expectations of a deal coming up, despite United States (US) President Donald Trump stating a meeting with China on trade issues was held in the American morning.

Wall Street shrugged off the negative tone of its overseas counterparts, with major indexes extending their advances and holding on to gains at the time of writing, which further draws attention from safe-haven Gold.

Meanwhile, the US released a slew of mixed macroeconomic data. Durable Goods Order improved to 9.2% in March, much better than the 2% forecast. Initial Jobless Claims were slightly worse than anticipated, up to 222K vs the 21K expected. March Existing Home Sales, however, fell by 5.9%, worse than the -3% anticipated. Finally, the April Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity index, with posted -5, worse than the 1 from March.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the XAU/USD pair is up on the day, although it remains contained within Wednesday’s range. Technical indicators have changed course and aim north within positive levels, gaining fresh impetus and supporting additional gains. At the same time, the pair keeps developing far above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently at around $3,182, advancing well above also bullish 100 and 200 SMAs.

The 4-hour chart shows that the XAU/USD pair is comfortably consolidating, with technical readings suggesting a bearish twist. The bright metal keeps developing below a mildly bearish 20 SMA, providing dynamic resistance at around $3,370, although the longer moving averages maintain their bullish slopes well below the current level. Finally, technical indicators remain directionless within negative levels. A break through the aforementioned 20 SMA at around $3,370 should open the door for a more sustainable rally.

Support levels: 3,314.50 3,301.40 3,288.70

Resistance levels: 3,344.60 3,358.10 3,370.00

41.7% Decline Reached

Today’s low completed a $2.04 or 41.7% decline in the price of natural gas in 32 days, when measured from the recent trend high of $4.90 (A). Since the February 2024 low, the biggest bearish correction was 40.7%, starting after the $3.16 swing high in June. Therefore, on a percentage basis there is price symmetry between the two downswings, which can sometimes lead to a completion of the correction.

But since new bearish signs were seen this week, with a drop below a prior swing low and the 200-Day MA, the potential to eventually decline to test support around the lower uptrend line (purple), increases. That trendline is part of a large rising parallel trend channel that reflects a degree of symmetry within the price structure of the long-term uptrend.

Project to Lower Channel Line

Nevertheless, further bearish indications follow a rejection of natural gas from the top of the channel. It indicates that sellers remain in charge, with renewed enthusiasm. Once one side of the pattern is tested and leads to a reversal, the other side of the pattern becomes a potential target. Whether the lower line is reached or not, the next lower price target becomes more likely to be hit. Moreover, in addition to the purple uptrend line that represents potential support, a top line for a previous large symmetrical triangle pattern is also nearby.

AVWAP Level at Thursday’s Low

Despite the continued bearish indications, today’s low tested support at the anchored volume weighted average price (AVWAP) (light blue) level measured from the February 2024 low. That highlights today’s low as a potentially significant support level. It is worth keeping an eye on as the higher swing low from October was a successful test of support around the same AVWAP line. Keep in mind that since there was a slight undercut of the line, it was followed by a quick recovery. A similar scenario could unfold with the current correction.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.