The CADCHF pair declined in its last intraday levels, to gather the gains of its previous rises, attempting to gather bullish momentum that might assist it to breach the critical resistance at 173.25, and attempting to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the beginning of negative overlapping signals appearance, amid the continuation of the positive support due to its trading above EMA50, and under the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (CADCHF) price in its upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by breaching the mentioned resistance at 173.25 initially, to target its next resistance at 174.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 171.85 support and 173.80 resistance.

Trend forecast: Bullish

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July 25, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to US Dollar Forecast: Long-term GBP/USD Uptrend Faltering Again?

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate pushed to a peak just below 1.3590 before a retreat to near 1.3550.

The latest UK data triggered some fresh unease over the outlook and hampered the Pound, but dollar confidence remained weak amid signs of higher inflation which would intensify the debate surrounding Federal Reserve policy.

Scotiabank considers that the long-term GBP/USD uptrend could be faltering again and added; “We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3500 support and 1.3580 resistance.”

According to UoB; “Although the outlook for GBP remains positive, short-term conditions are deeply overbought, and the next resistance at 1.3650 is unlikely to come into view so soon.”

On a longer-term view, Danske Bank expects that GBP/USD will creep higher to 1.38 on a 12-month view.

As far as UK data is concerned, the UK PMI manufacturing index edged higher to a 6-month high of 48.2 for July from 47.7 previously and just above consensus forecasts.

The services-sector index, however, dipped to a 2-month low of 51.2 from 52.8 in June and compared with expectations of no change for the month.

The CBI industrial trends index improved slightly to -30 for July from -33 previously, but this was below consensus forecasts of -27 and indicated further stresses in the manufacturing sector.

The ONS also reported that UK vehicle production in the first half of 2025 slumped to the lowest level since 1953.

The issue of US interest rates and Fed independence will remain a key market concern.

Markets remain very confident that there will be no change in interest rates at next week’s meeting and the potential for a September rate cut has also drifted lower to near 35%.

There are still important concerns surrounding political pressure on the Fed with the future of Chair Powell still a major talking point.

There has been further speculation that the Administration will find a pretext to dismiss Powell or undermine his authority.

Rabobank commented; “Later today, Trump will visit the Fed to take a look at the construction site where the $2.5 billion renovation project is taking place that could become the “cause” that the Trump administration is looking for to fire Powell if they want to get rid of him before his term as Fed Chair expires in May 2026. That should certainly move the process to find a new Chair into high gear.”

The latest US data will complicate the argument surrounding Federal Reserve policy and Administration demands for lower interest rates.

The PMI manufacturing index dipped to a 7-month low of 49.5 for July from 52.9 and below consensus forecasts of 52.7.

The services-sector index, however, increased to a 7-month high of 55.2 from 52.9 in June.

Overall business confidence dipped again with the second-weakest reading for 30 months.

Costs increased at the second-highest rate since January 2023 while output charges increased at the second-highest rate since September 2022.

Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence noted a strong start to the third quarter, but commented; “Whether this growth can be sustained is by no means assured. Growth was worryingly uneven and overly reliant on the services economy.”

On inflation, he added; “The rise in selling prices for goods and services in July suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target in the coming months as these price hikes feed through to households.”

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has raised higher against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday to touch the 148 yen level and by extension, the 200 day EMA. This is a market that I do think breaks out eventually, but as things stand right now, it is rather difficult to get above here. If we do, then the 149 yen level is your next target. Anything above there opens up the floodgates. I expect to see that sooner or later, I just don’t know if we’ll see it right at this moment.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has fallen yet again against the US dollar to reach the 0.6550 region yet again. We are in a fairly obvious uptrending channel, we are right in the middle of it, so this is about as neutral as it gets. Longer term, it does look like we want to go higher, but it’s more of a grind, it’s not really a huge move that I think it is going to push this market, I think it’s going to lull people to sleep for some time. And in fact, if you draw the channel out a little bit, maybe make it a little bit longer in time, you can even make an argument that we’re just continuing the same channel we were in before that big dip in early April, with the tariffs being announced.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The (ETHUSD) price declined in its last intraday trading, to attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the beginning of the negative signals emergence, to gather its positive strength that might assist it to recover and rise again, leaning on the support of its EMA50, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading alongside a minor bullish bias that supports this trend.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (ETHUSD) price in the upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by the stability of the support at $3,500, to target the critical resistance level at $3,800.

The expected trading range is between $3,450 support and $3,800 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bullish

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The (ETHUSD) price declined in its last intraday trading, to attempt to offload some of its clear overbought conditions on the (RSI), especially with the beginning of the negative signals emergence, to gather its positive strength that might assist it to recover and rise again, leaning on the support of its EMA50, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend and its trading alongside a minor bullish bias that supports this trend.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in the (ETHUSD) price in the upcoming intraday trading, conditioned by the stability of the support at $3,500, to target the critical resistance level at $3,800.

The expected trading range is between $3,450 support and $3,800 resistance.

Today’s forecast: Bullish

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Copper price declined in its last intraday trading, due to the stability of the resistance level at $5.89, attempting to look for a rising low to take it as a base that might assist it to gain the required positive momentum to help it to breach this resistance, to lean on the support of a minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, amid the continuation of the positive pressure that comes from its trading above EMA50, besides the (RSI) reach to oversold levels, exaggeratedly compared to the price movement, suggesting the beginning of forming positive divergence, intensifying the positive pressure on the price.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in (copper) price in its intraday trading, especially when breaching the mentioned resistance at $5.89, to target the next resistance level at $6.1820.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.7344 and $6.0500

Trend forecast: Bullish

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• GBP/USD trades in negative territory below 1.3500 after posting losses on Thursday.
• The technical outlook highlights a buildup of bearish momentum in the short term.
• Retail Sales in the UK rose at a softer pace than expected in June.

GBP/USD came under bearish pressure on Thursday and lost more than 0.5%, snapping a three-day winning streak in the process. The pair extends its slide on Friday and trades below 1.3500.

The renewed US Dollar (USD) strength weighed on GBP/USD on Thursday. The US Department of Labor reported that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits declined to 217,000 in the week ending July 19 from 221,000 in the previous week. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 227,000. Additionally, the S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) improved to 54.6 (preliminary) in July from 52.9 in June, reflecting an ongoing expansion in the private sector’s business activity, at an accelerating pace.

Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP cross rose more than 0.3% on Thursday as the Euro benefited from the European Central Bank’s (ECB) cautious tone on policy-easing. EUR/GBP preserves its bullish momentum and trades at its highest level since early April above 0.8700 on Friday, suggesting that the Euro continues to capture capital outflows out of Pound Sterling.

Early Friday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics reported that Retail Sales rose by 0.9% on a monthly basis in June. This reading followed the 2.8% decrease recorded in May but came in worse than the market expectation for an increase of 1.2%, making it difficult for GBP/USD to stage a rebound.

In the second half of the day, Durable Goods Orders data for June will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar. Nevertheless, this data is unlikely to have a long-lasting impact on the USD’s valuation.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD broke below the 100-period and the 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on the 4-hour chart and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator dropped below 40, pointing to a bearish tilt in the near term.

In case GBP/USD confirms 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest uptrend) as resistance, 1.3400 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) could be seen as the next support level before 1.3340. On the upside, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.3520 (100-period SMA) and 1.3540-1.3550 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).