The GBPAUD remains affected by the negative factors that are represented by the continuation of forming main resistance at 1.9545 level, besides the unionism of providing negative momentum by the main indicators, to notice resuming the negative movement to settle near 1.8860.
Forming extra barrier at 1.9090 level and providing negative momentum will reinforce the chances of resuming the bearish trend, to reach 1.8745 level, to repeat the pressure at 1.8675.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.8745 and 1.8900
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has slipped back below 1.3500, after failing to hold gains near 1.36, as renewed Iran tensions triggered a fresh spike in oil prices and hit risk appetite.
With markets swinging between optimism and fear, GBP/USD is set for a highly volatile week, with geopolitical developments, UK data releases, and central bank signals all in focus.
GBP/USD Forecasts: Pound Dips as Fear Spikes Again
Hope and Fear have continued to trade blows in global markets. There was a strong boost to risk appetite on Friday following a statement from Iran that the Strait of Hormuz was open to all traffic.
In response, the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate jumped to 2-month highs just below the 1.36 level as oil prices declined sharply.
GBP/USD, however, dipped to lows below 1.3500 on Monday as the Iran situation deteriorated again. In response, there was a fresh jump in crude oil prices and equity markets dipped again.
According to UoB; “The increase in downward momentum is not enough to indicate a continued decline. However, there is a chance for GBP to test 1.3450.”
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Iran developments and UK data releases will be crucial elements this week with UK political developments also watched closely with Prime Minister Starmer under renewed pressure due to the Mandelson affair.
According to Danske Bank; “The market is likely to stay volatile this week as US and Iran will try to negotiate a deal.”
ING added; “In terms of the immediate focus, the question is whether investors will receive further positive news on renewed peace talks in Pakistan, or whether both sides will talk tough and potentially act tougher ahead of tomorrow’s deadline on the two-week ceasefire.”
Danske Bank noted the importance of energy flows; “If oil does not start flowing through the strait soon, oil prices are likely to rise further and above USD100/bbl again, putting upward pressure on yields and downward pressure on EUR/USD.” This would be likely to hurt GBP/USD.
The evidence on US, global and UK economic trends will also be important this week.
There will be a greater focus on potential US interest rate trends with Fed Chair nominee Warsh due to testify in Congress.
ING commented; “He is expected to be dovish on rates, but hawkish on the size of the Fed’s balance sheet.” Calls for lower rates would tend to hamper the dollar.
As far as UK data is concerned, the latest labour-market data will be released on Tuesday with the inflation data on Wednesday. The headline rate is forecast to increase to 3.3% from 3.0% with the core rate holding at 3.2%.
The latest PMI business confidence data is due on Thursday with expectations that there will be a small decline from March figures. A dip into contraction territory would be likely to hurt the Pound.
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Copper price remains affected by the temporary negative pressures that comes from stochastic exit from the overbought level, which forced it to provide extra pressure on the initial support at $5.9700 as appears in the above image.
The continuation of the negative pressures might force it to activate the bearish corrective track, to expect targeting $5.8200 level, to begin forming new bullish waves, while surpassing $5.8200 level and holding below it might motivate more of the bearish attempts, which might extend towards $5.7100.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.8200 and $6.050
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
Copper price remains affected by the temporary negative pressures that comes from stochastic exit from the overbought level, which forced it to provide extra pressure on the initial support at $5.9700 as appears in the above image.
The continuation of the negative pressures might force it to activate the bearish corrective track, to expect targeting $5.8200 level, to begin forming new bullish waves, while surpassing $5.8200 level and holding below it might motivate more of the bearish attempts, which might extend towards $5.7100.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.8200 and $6.050
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
Copper price remains affected by the temporary negative pressures that comes from stochastic exit from the overbought level, which forced it to provide extra pressure on the initial support at $5.9700 as appears in the above image.
The continuation of the negative pressures might force it to activate the bearish corrective track, to expect targeting $5.8200 level, to begin forming new bullish waves, while surpassing $5.8200 level and holding below it might motivate more of the bearish attempts, which might extend towards $5.7100.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.8200 and $6.050
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate opened the week on the back foot as tensions in the Middle East intensified once again.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3497, down almost 0.2% from Monday’s opening levels.
The US dollar (USD) began the week on firm footing, with demand for the safe-haven currency lifted by renewed geopolitical uncertainty.
After signalling the Strait of Hormuz would remain open on Friday, Iran reversed course over the weekend, closing the vital shipping route as US naval forces continued their blockade.
An attempt by an Iranian-flagged vessel to break through the blockade on Monday led to its seizure, further escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.
Iranian state media has since threatened retaliation and confirmed the country has ‘no plans to participate’ in further negotiations with the US.
This has raised doubts over the current ceasefire, which is set to expire on Wednesday.
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The pound (GBP) came under pressure as escalating tensions triggered another rise in UK government bond yields.
The increase in borrowing costs reignited concerns about the UK’s fiscal outlook, particularly regarding how the government might finance additional energy support for households later this year.
Further undermining Sterling was data showing UK consumer confidence has dropped to a 33-month low since the onset of the US-Iran conflict, amid worries over inflation and the jobs market.
Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Labour Data in Focus
The Pound to US dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate may remain under pressure ahead of the release of the UK’s latest labour market figures.
In addition to unemployment holding at a five-year high, February’s data is expected to show slower wage growth and a decline in employment levels.
Fresh evidence of a cooling labour market could further dampen Bank of England rate hike expectations and weigh on Sterling in early trade.
Meanwhile, although the US dollar will likely continue to track geopolitical developments, the latest US retail sales figures may provide additional support if they indicate a pickup in consumer spending last month.
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All the recent charts of X, Investing.com, and TradingView are pointing to silver having broken higher, regained major support, and continues to trade in a bullish tone, although the momentum is beginning to slow towards the end of the move.
Silver is soaring again, with XAG/USD trading towards the level of $79 as buyers continue to dominate the short-term trend.
The present rally appears to be more than just a bounce. Price has been establishing higher highs and lower lows, and each minor decline has thus far been met with new buying. That keeps the focus on whether silver has the potential to hold the breakout zone and reach new intraday highs.
Bullish Continuation Setup Holds Buyers in The Lead
A recent X post declares silver a continuation trade that is bullish in the 1-hour chart. It outlines a pure rupture of formation, an effective reassertion of support, and an effective demand area that ratifies buyer muscle.
According to the X chart, it displays a steep upward impulse followed by a minor retreat into support and a fresh upward push.
The focus of that structure is a retracement zone of about $76.50-$76.80 with a cushion area at $75.50 and an upside range of $78.50-$79.80. On one hand, it cleared off earlier liquidity and retained the retreat rather than falling back into the previous range.
Investing.com Shows Good Intraday Progress
Additionally, the Investing.com chart places silver at $79.0105, up $3.4300, or 4.54%, on the day. The relocation is not only robust in terms of percentages but also in form. The chart indicates a consistent rise from the low point of 73 to the high point of 79 in about a day and a half.
As per the investing.com chart, it has its dips and stops, yet the direction of the trend is definitely upwards. The price stabilizes at $74 to $75, then rises to a higher level of approximately $76, and finally accelerates to the most recent trend of $79.
The move is also strong, as evidenced by the wider performance numbers. Silver has increased by 8.38% in one week and by 53.62% in six months. However, it is still declining by 1.87% in one month.
Strength in The Upper Band
On the other hand, Bollinger Bands position the upper band at $79.293, the midline at $79.046, and the lower band at $78.799. Price is currently below the midline and is very near the upper part of the range, which indicates that buyers are still in control despite the slowing of the immediate pace.
XAG/USD opens at $78.916, highs at $78.941, and lows at $78.846; it trades around $78.859, as indicated in the TradingView chart. The final candle appears nearly flat, but the larger chart reveals that silver is steadily grinding upwards throughout the session.
MACD remains positive; the histogram is -0.046, the MACD line is 0.048, and the signal line is 0.093. That combo shows upside momentum, but not as strong as at the rally’s peak. Silver is not bearish yet, but the next clean extension will probably rely on whether the buyers will be able to continue to defend the upper area of 78 and break through 79.29.
The GBPJPY pair surrendered to stochastic negativity in Friday, forcing it to delay the bullish rally, forming bearish corrective waves, to test the initial support level at 214.19, to settle above it.
The stability above the current support will provide a chance for renewing the bullish attempts by its rally initially towards 215.10, and surpassing it might extend the trading towards 215.70, while the continuation of the negative pressures might force it to provide more corrective trading to reach the main support at 213.30.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.10 and 215.70
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