At 14:35 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.899, up $0.065 or +1.70%.

Will Warmer Weather Keep Prices Under Pressure?

Weather forecasts remain a key bearish factor. Maxar Technologies projects above-normal temperatures from March 10-14 across the Rockies to the Atlantic, limiting heating demand. This follows an earlier February rally driven by storage tightness, but with winter demand winding down, concerns over consumption are resurfacing.

Lower-48 gas demand fell to 80.2 Bcf/d last Friday, marking a 10.3% year-over-year decline. Without a late-season cold snap, traders may struggle to find strong bullish catalysts. Despite last week’s 261 Bcf storage draw—above the five-year average—current trends indicate weaker consumption, keeping pressure on prices.

How Are Supply and LNG Exports Influencing the Market?

Production remains robust, with Lower-48 dry gas output at 107.8 Bcf/d, up 2.8% year-over-year. Meanwhile, LNG exports provide some support, with flows to U.S. terminals rising to 15.6 Bcf/d, a 2.1% weekly increase.

A potential long-term bullish factor emerged as the Trump administration lifted restrictions on new LNG export projects. Bloomberg reported that a decision on the Commonwealth LNG facility in Louisiana is approaching, which could eventually boost U.S. natural gas demand. However, in the short term, storage and weather are dictating price action.

Market Forecast: Further Downside Risk Looms