• XAG/USD slips to $31.13, with downside risks growing
• Silver fails to hold above $33.00, triggering consolidation and selling pressure.
• Price tests 100-day SMA at $31.20; next key support at 50-day SMA of $30.89.
• Break below $30.89 could expose 200-day SMA at $30.47 and January low of $29.70.

Silver ended the week on a lower note, down almost 4%, as traders booked profits amid US recession jitters following the release of crucial US data. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD trades at $31.13, down 0.32%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The grey metal had shown signs of consolidation after failing to decisively clear the $33.00 on a daily closing basis, which could’ve exacerbated a rally towards the $34.00 figure. Instead, XAG/USD spot price cleared the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.20, opening the door to test the 50-day SMA at $30.89.

Although bears pushed prices lower, buyers reclaimed $31.00. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows sellers are gathering momentum.

Therefore, XAG/USD’s first support would be the 50-day SMA at $30.89 on further weakness. A breach of the latter will expose the 200-day SMA at $30.47. If sellers conquer those two levels, the trend shifts downwards, and bears would be poised to challenge the January 27 daily through at $29.70.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

50% Retracement at $3.73

The 50% retracement at $3.73 marks the beginning of a possible support zone that goes down to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.56. Last week’s low at $3.55 marked support for the week and is part of the uptrend price structure of higher weekly highs and higher lows.

It therefore has significance as a drop below it provides a bearish weekly signal and could lead to a drop towards the lower internal uptrend line. Since the weekly low aligns with the 61.8% retracement at $3.56, it deserves extra attention. In addition to a lower trendline target, there is a price zone from $3.32 to $3.31, consisting of the 20-Week MA and the 78.6% retracement, respectively.

Price Range From $4.73 to $3.56

Within the $3.73 to $3.56 price range is the 50-Day MA at $3.71. That looks to be the next key potential support level, particularly since the 20-Day MA has converged with the 50-Day as of today. Both moving averages are rising and are on track converge with the 50% retracement level. Unless there is a sharp drop before the end of today’s session, this week will end as an inside week with a closing price near the lows of the range.

Monthly Chart Shows Downward Pressure

Moreover, February ends today with the sixth consecutive month of higher monthly highs and higher monthly lows. However, the month is set to close in a relatively weak position near the midpoint of the month’s trading range, which is $3.82. The prior two months also ended in a relatively weak position, especially January, which closed near the lows for the month. In addition, the 50-Month MA was exceeded over the past few months but in each case the month ended below the 50-Month line, now at $3.85.

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• Silver price could test the primary support at the psychological level of $31.00.
• The daily chart analysis indicates an increasing bearish bias, with the descending channel pattern continuing to expand.
• The pair could approach the initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of $31.83.

Silver price (XAG/USD) remains steady after registering losses in the previous session, trading near $31.20 per troy ounce during the early European session on Friday. Technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a strengthening bearish outlook, with the grey metal moving downwards within a descending channel pattern.

Silver price also remains below the nine-day and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling weakened short-term momentum. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below the 50 mark, confirming the bearish bias is active.

To the downside, the XAG/USD pair may find initial support at the psychological level of $31.00, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel at the 30.70 level. A break below this level could reinforce the bearish bias, potentially pushing Silver’s price toward the five-month low of $28.74, last seen on December 19.

Silver price could encounter initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of $31.83, followed by the 14-day EMA at $31.89. The further barrier appears around the descending channel’s upper boundary at the $32.10 level. A break above this crucial resistance zone could restore the bullish outlook, potentially pushing the pair toward the four-month high of $33.40.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

Brent oil price continued to rise to test 74.00$ level, noticing that the price consolidates below this level after attempting to breach it in the previous sessions, accompanied by witnessing clear negative signals through stochastic, which overlaps negatively now.

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• Gold price sits at two-week lows below $2,900, awaiting US PCE inflation data.
• US Dollar stands tall amid Trump’s tariff threats while US Treasury yields tank on dovish Fed bets.
• Gold price finds acceptance below the 21-day SMA at $2,890, but the daily RSI stays bullish.

Gold price struggles near two-week lows below $2,900 in Friday’s Asian trading hours, looking to snap its eight consecutive weekly gains.

Gold price suffers amid US Dollar resurgence

Gold price is nursing losses as the US Dollar (USD) stands tall amid risk-off flows extending into Asia this Friday. Traders weigh the latest tariff threats from US President Donald Trump and the sharp decline in the American artificial intelligence (AI) leader Nvidia’s share price.

Trump confirmed on Thursday that his proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect March 4 along with an extra 10% duty on Chinese imports as fentanyl continues to pour into the US from those countries.

His latest remarks brushed aside his Wednesday message that steep 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods could take effect on April 2.

The broader market sentiment also remains undermined due to heightening US economic concerns and the slump in Nividia and other so-called “Magnificent Seven” Wall Street mega-cap stocks, following the chipmaker’s discouraging earnings.

Data on Thursday showed that the second estimate of the fourth-quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) held steady from the advance estimates, showing an annualised growth of 2.3% in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing for jobless benefits rose by 22,000 to 242,000 for the week ending Feb. 22, hitting the highest level in three months.

Against this background, the Greenback will likely keep the upper hand across the board, maintaining the downside pressure on the USD-denominated bright metal.

However, weak US economic data-led dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations combined with increased safe-haven flows into the US government bonds remain a headwind for the US Treasury bond yields.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yields extend their losing streak, flirting with 11-week lows near 4.20% at the press time. The ongoing decline in the US yields could hinder the US Dollar recovery, cushioning the Gold price downside.

That said, the upcoming Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will help trigger the next direction in Gold price. The annual US core PCE Price Index is set to rise 2.6% in January after increasing 2.8% in December. Any significant deviation from the forecast will likely impact the Fed rate cut bets, influencing the Greenback and the yellow metal.

Further, the end-of-the-month flows and more commentary from US President Trump could also play a pivotal role in driving the Gold price action as the week draws to a close.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that Gold price closed Thursday below the critical short-term support of the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,890, inducing further downward pressure.

However, Gold price remains above the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently near 53.50, indicating that buyers refuse to give up yet.

If sellers flex their muscles, the immediate support is seen at the February 12 low of $2,864, below which the $2,850 psychological barrier will be challenged.

Additional declines will threaten the February 6 low of $2,834.

Should Gold buyers seek a weekly closing above the 21-day SMA support-tuned resistance at $2,890, a fresh uptrend could be fuelled toward the February 26 high of $2,930.

The next upside target on buyers’ radars will be an all-time high at $2,956.

The GBPJPY pair touched 187.68 level this morning, achieving some previously waited negative targets, followed by waiting to form quick correctional rebound to settle near 188.70.

The current rebound won’t form any effect on the bearish scenario due to the consolidation within the bearish channel, in addition to 189.80 level forming strong additional barrier, thus, we will keep waiting to renew the negative attempts to expect moving towards 187.10 soon.

The expected trading range for today is between 187.10 and 189.50

Trend forecast: Bearish