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26
02, 2025
Crude Oil Price Forecast: Bearish Correction Deepens as Sellers Maintain Control
Down by 14.6%
At today’s low, the price of crude oil had decreased by $11.80 or 14.6% from the recent swing high at $80.76. On a relative basis, that put it at the low end of bearish corrections that have occurred since the April 2024 peak. There were four corrections identified since then that ranged from a decline of 14.7% to 18.3%. These measured moves indicate that the current correction may be close to completing and that crude oil may have a little more to fall before the correction is complete.
Monthly Bearish Reversal Points to Lower Prices
Crude oil triggered a monthly bearish reversal earlier this month (not shown) and it continues to trade near the lows of the month. This shows aggressive selling with lower monthly support in a range from around $67.11 to $66.65. Given the decisiveness of the bearish retracement, these lower price levels may yet be tested before a notable bounce. There are three more trading days before the end of February, which means that crude is at risk of ending the month in a bearish position, near the lows of the month.
Nearing Key Price Levels
Although the lower trendline provides a potential support line, the next lower support zone is from $67.11 to $66.86. That range is determined by two previous interim swing lows that were established late last year. They represent a more significant support area since a drop below that price range more clearly indicates a possible continuation of the larger bear trend.
Since the $131.31 swing high in March 2022 crude oil has been in a downtrend with a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. However, a new lower swing low for the downtrend was attempted in September with a decline to $65.65. But that decline failed to fall below the earlier swing low at $63.67 from May 2023. The September support zone could be challenged if the $66.86 price area fails to hold as support.
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