• Gols approaches fresh all-time highs $3,800, as the US Dollar drifts lower.
• Investors keep pricing in two further rate cuts in 2025, which keeps US Dollar rallies limited.
• Later today US flash PMI and Fed Powell might provide further clues about the US central bank’s rate path.

Gold continues to march higher on Tuesday, reaching fresh all-time highs and nearing $3,800 after appreciating more than $140 over the last three trading days. The US Dollar’s pullback ahead of the US PMI and Fed Powell’s speech has provided further support to the precious metals.

Investors’ expectations of further Fed rate cuts, on one side, and growing geopolitical concerns, namely the frictions between Russia and its NATO neighbours, have boosted demand for the safe-haven gold this week.

On Tuesday, a range of Fed speakers offered diverse opinions about the bank’s rate path, but futures markets continued to price in a 90% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in November and a 70% chance of another one in December. Against this backdrop, the US Dollar’s upside attempts are likely to remain subdued.

Technical Analysis: Gold is shouting for a bearish correction

The technical picture shows an overextended rally from mid-August lows. Bullion has appreciated nearly 15% ever since, and these performances, sooner than later, lead to corrections. The RSI is overbought at most timeframes, supporting that view.

On the upside, the psychological level at $3,800 might be a plausible target ahead of a healthy correction. Further up, the 261.8% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-September pullback, at $3,828, emerges as a potential target.

To the downside, immediate support is at the intraday low of $3,738 ahead of the previous record high, in the area of $3,700. Further down, the September 15 and 19 lows, around $36,30 would come into focus.

(This story was corrected on September 23 at 11.25 GMT to say that the market is pricing two further Fed rate cuts, and not rate hikes, as previously reported)

The GBPCHF provided several negative trading, affected by its stability below the main bearish channel’s resistance at 1.0748, suffering some losses by hitting 1.0670 level, then forming correctional trading by its stability near 1.0705.

Note that the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of forming new bearish waves, attempting to press on the barrier at 1.0660, and breaking it will extend the losses towards 1.0630, to face the support of bearish channel that appears in the above image.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0720 and 1.0660

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price provided slow trading despite the presence of the positive factors, such as the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels by forming main support at $4.1100 level, besides the continuation of providing bullish momentum by the main indicators, specifically by forming an extra support by the moving average 55 by its stability near $4.3700.

Therefore, we will keep preferring the bullish scenario, to expect surpassing the barrier at $4.6200, to rally towards the positive stations at $4.7500 and $4.9500.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.5000 and 4.7500

Trend forecast: Bullish

• Gold retreats after hitting lifetime highs above $3,750 early Tuesday.
• US Dollar consolidates the downside ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s appearance.
• Gold’s record rally remains unabated but overbought RSI conditions on the daily chart could caution buyers.

Gold is taking a breather early Tuesday after having extended the previous upsurge to renew record highs above the $3,750 psychological level.

Gold: All eyes on Powell and geopolitics

Gold traders look to take profits off the table after a two-day relentless record rally, repositioning ahead of the top-tier S&P Global preliminary US Manufacturing and Services PMI data and the eagerly awaited speech from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell.

Powell is due to speak about the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon, in Rhode Island, on Tuesday.

The US business growth data and Powell’s words will be closely scrutinized for fresh hints on whether the Fed will deliver two more interest rate cuts in the remainder of this year.

This comes after the hawkish remarks from Fed officials delivered on Monday and last week’s cautious rate cut decision announced by the US central bank.

New Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday that the Fed is misreading how tight it has set monetary policy and will put the job market at risk without aggressive rate cuts.

Meanwhile, Fed policymakers Raphael Bostic, Beth Hammack and Thomas Barkin maintained their cautious rhetoric on further easing amid looming upside risks to inflation.

Besides, growing expectations of further Fed rate cuts, intensifying geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and rising concerns over the US fiscal debt emerge as the key factors powering Gold’s record run.

Russian military jets flew over Estonia for 12 minutes on Friday. Although Moscow denied it, US President Donald Trump has said America would come to the defence of Poland and the Baltic states if Russia were to attack.

Interestingly, in the past fortnight, Russian drones and fighter jets have entered Estonian, Polish and Romanian airspace as the Kremlin’s war on Ukraine continues.

Looking ahead, the US preliminary Manufacturing PMI is seen falling to 52 in September from 53 in August, while the Services PMI is expected to decline to 53.9 in the same period versus 54.5 previous.

Disappointing PMI readings could revive US economic concerns and ramp up the odds of further easing by the Fed, boding well for the non-interest-bearing Gold and vice-versa.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains within the overbought territory, currently descending to 76.

If the pullback picks up steam, the initial support is seen at the $3,700 threshold, below which the previous day’s low of $3,684 will offer some comfort.

Further down, the $3,650 psychological barrier could come to the rescue of buyers.

Conversely, buyers need acceptance above the $3,750 region to extend the record rally toward the $3,800 round level.

WTI (CL=F) and Brent (BZ=F) Prices Surge on Geopolitical Shock and OPEC+ Uncertainty

Oil prices are once again reflecting the weight of geopolitics and supply-side maneuvering. WTI crude (CL=F) climbed to $63.11 per barrel, up 1.37%, while Brent (BZ=F) added 1.32% to $66.89 after Israel carried out an unprecedented strike in Doha, Qatar. The location of the strike rattled traders because Qatar is a cornerstone of the global energy network, home to one of the largest U.S. military bases, and a critical LNG exporter. Even though Qatar does not export large volumes of crude, the geopolitical symbolism triggered immediate risk premiums across energy benchmarks.

Geopolitical Escalation Drives Risk Premiums

The Israel–Qatar escalation shifted the balance of oil markets that were already contending with fragile supply outlooks. Nearly every Gulf state plays an outsized role in energy stability, and the possibility of escalation spilling into wider conflicts pushed risk hedging into oil futures. Historically, events in the Gulf region have added anywhere from $3–$7 per barrel in geopolitical premium, and traders are preparing for that scenario again.

OPEC+ Output Strategy and Saudi Pricing Tactics

Overlaying the geopolitical spike is the ongoing OPEC+ supply policy. After signaling a potential collective increase of 550,000 barrels per day for October, the group delivered just 137,000 barrels per day, managing expectations but still loosening cuts. Saudi Aramco responded by cutting its official selling price for October Asian deliveries by $1 per barrel, with Arab Light now set at a $2.20 premium over Oman/Dubai. The cut was larger than expected and highlights Riyadh’s concern about weakening Asian demand. With China’s oil stockpiling continuing but EV adoption suppressing gasoline demand growth, Saudi Arabia appears willing to trade price for market share.

Bearish Voices Emerge Amid Supply Overhang Concerns

Shipping executives, including Maersk’s oil trading head, warned at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference that risks lean to the downside, citing sluggish demand and excess supply from Russia and U.S. shale. Goldman Sachs flagged the possibility of a 1.9 million barrel per day surplus next year, which could drag Brent crude back to $55 per barrel. S&P Global echoed the warning, noting that OECD inventories remain 100 million barrels below the five-year average, but contango structures could widen quickly if stockbuilding accelerates.

Refinery Disruptions and Regional Supply Shocks

Complicating the balance are disruptions in Russia and Nigeria. Ukrainian drones have hit Rosneft’s key refineries, temporarily halting processing and reducing export-ready volumes. In Nigeria, unions have called for strikes at the 650,000 bpd Dangote refinery over labor disputes, threatening near-term regional fuel supply. These interruptions, although episodic, inject additional volatility into physical markets already rattled by OPEC+ decisions and Middle Eastern risks.

WTI and Brent Technical Structure

Technically, WTI crude (CL=F) is testing a double-bottom pattern near $62, with resistance layers stacking at $65 and $66. A decisive break above $66 would target $67.50–$68.00, while failure to hold $62 could drag prices toward $60. Brent (BZ=F) is moving in a similar structure, with a range defined by $65 support and $70 resistance. Both contracts are holding above immediate support levels, but momentum remains fragile, with short-covering responsible for much of the recent bounce.

Macro Backdrop and Currency Linkages

U.S. nonfarm payroll revisions, which revealed a loss of 911,000 jobs, reinforced expectations of a September Fed rate cut, sending the dollar lower and boosting commodities priced in USD. At the same time, gold surged past $3,674 per ounce, underscoring the search for havens during geopolitical stress. Oil benefitted in the short term, but the fundamental drag from weak macro data means demand forecasts may not justify sustained rallies.

China and India as Swing Buyers

China continues to stockpile crude aggressively, lifting imports since March, but the move is less about demand recovery and more about building reserves. Analysts warn Chinese demand growth could peak by 2027, with EV adoption already displacing 580,000 barrels per day of gasoline equivalent this year. India, meanwhile, is doubling down on discounted Russian barrels, defying Western pressure, and securing long-term supply contracts. These divergent strategies illustrate Asia’s outsized role in setting marginal demand, but also point to limits on upside for Brent as peak demand debates accelerate.

Verdict on Oil (CL=F, BZ=F)

Oil prices are being propped up by geopolitics rather than fundamentals. With WTI at $63.11 and Brent at $66.89, near-term rallies hinge on whether the Israel–Qatar escalation deepens or whether OPEC+ signals further restraint. Structural risks remain to the downside, with forecasts of Brent sliding back toward $55 if oversupply accelerates into 2026. The verdict for now is Hold, as short-term geopolitical premiums keep oil elevated, but long-term risk-reward tilts bearish unless demand outpaces the looming wave of supply from OPEC+, U.S. shale, and LNG expansions.

That’s TradingNEWS