EUR/USD is losing ground as traders react to the ECB Interest Rate Decision. The European Central Bank raised the interest rate from 2.15% to 2.4%, in line with analyst consensus.

ECB noted that the war in the Middle East generated inflation pressures. According to ECB, headline inflation is expected to average 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028.

Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.1500 – 1.1515. In case this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will move towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1415 – 1.1430 range.

GBP/USD Tests Support At 1.3335 – 1.3350

Despite the weakness in the pair’s trading, its repeated stability above the additional support level at 213.50, combined with the Stochastics’ attempt to provide positive momentum, has led to the formation of some bullish waves, helping the pair maintain its position around 214.80.

We reiterate the importance of a breakout above the resistance level at 215.50, as this would allow the pair to form strong upward waves. In that case, the price is expected to be attracted initially toward 216.10 and then 216.65.

The expected trading range for today is between 214 and 216

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Minesh Chaudhari

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: US Dollar Supported by Middle East Uncertainty Ahead of UK GDP

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate struggled to gain traction on Thursday, with investor sentiment dented by lingering uncertainty in the Middle East.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3362, slightly lower on the day.

The US Dollar (USD) stood its ground against a majority of its peers on Thursday, as a broad wave of risk aversion fuelled demand for the safe-haven currency.

Escalating friction in the Middle East weighed heavily on market risk appetite following a second consecutive day of US airstrikes against Iran.

While this latest flare-up threatens to disrupt peace negotiations, media reports suggesting that diplomatic discussions are still quietly underway helped stabilise market sentiment. Ultimately, these rumours capped the ‘Greenback’ from advancing any further.

The increasingly risk-sensitive Pound (GBP) encountered headwinds amid the downbeat market sentiment on Thursday.

However, Sterling managed to avoid steep declines thanks to a retreat in UK government bond yields. Despite the geopolitical friction in the Middle East, energy commodities held relatively steady, which helped soothe worries within the bond market.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Growth Data in Focus

Looking ahead, Friday’s UK GDP release could drive movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate.

The British economy is expected to have shrunk by 0.1% in April. A contraction could revive concerns over the UK’s economic outlook, potentially denting demand for the Pound.

Such a result may also prompt investors to pare back Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets ahead of next week’s policy decision, placing further pressure on Sterling.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar could take direction from the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index. Economists expect morale to have improved in June, which may lend the ‘Greenback’ support.

Ongoing geopolitical anxiety could also buoy USD, particularly if tensions in the Middle East continue to keep investors wary.

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The US dollar has rallied slightly in the early part of the trading session on Wednesday, as we continue to see the USD jump against the Japanese yen. The question now is whether or not the Bank of Japan is going to intervene, as we are getting close to those levels they defended previously. This is essentially a swing high that dates back to the 1990 trading year, when we started seeing the dollar really fall.

30+ Year Rounding Bottom

We have formed a massive rounding bottom that goes back to that time period. At this juncture, if we were to break out to the upside, you could be talking about a move all the way back to the 225 yen level. That, for me, would be an ultra-long-term prediction, assuming that it even could come true. However, in the short term, I would anticipate that there will probably be a lot of questions asked about this general vicinity. This is an area that could determine what happens for the next several years if history tells us anything.

Most of the time, central bank intervention only temporarily slows down what the market wants. If we do pull back from here, the 160 yen level should be an area that could offer support; after that, we would look at the 50-day EMA, which is presiding right around the 159 yen level. If the Bank of Japan does choose to intervene, I think that’s great—it means a day or two later, I can start buying the dollar again and collecting swap (the interest rate differential) at the end of each trading session. I really don’t see how this pair doesn’t break out eventually. It might be noisy and choppy, but don’t sleep on this market.

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Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy scenario: From the support level of 1.1490 with a target of 1.1620 and a stop-loss at 1.1400

• Sell scenario: From the resistance level of 1.1680 with a target of 1.1480 and a stop-loss at 1.1750

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

Investors are now focused on the European Central Bank’s decision today, Thursday, which could represent the next major test for the EUR/USD pair’s performance after the recent strong US jobs and inflation figures significantly impacted market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s future policies.

Across the best trading platforms, the Euro price fell against the US Dollar to the 1.1499 support level at the beginning of the trading week, before relatively recovering to 1.1575 yesterday. The pair failed to gain enough positive momentum to continue its rebound, as US inflation figures ultimately supported sellers in maintaining control over the trend.

What is expected from the ECB decisions today?

According to currency market trading, the single European currency has shown some nervousness ahead of the crucial ECB decision this Thursday. While the bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, the Euro’s weakness suggests markets are cautious that the central bank might adopt a dovish tone.

Ultimately, with a rate hike already anticipated, the tone and forward guidance regarding the probability of future hikes are what will determine the financial market’s reaction.

In general, money markets indicate that investors are prepared for at least one more rate hike in the coming months—specifically, pricing in an approximate 65% probability of additional tightening, equivalent to one and a half standard hikes.

Therefore, the European Central Bank (ECB) must confirm this expectation to maintain the euro’s stability. Given the euro’s decline prior to this event, we anticipate a “buy-on-this-expectation” reaction will be beneficial for the euro if the ECB clarifies that it sees a need to raise interest rates again.

Technical Outlook for EUR/USD Today:

According to performance on the daily timeframe, the overall trend for the EUR/USD pair remains firmly bearish, and stabilizing around and below the 1.1500 psychological support reinforces the sellers’ dominance. Technical indicators still have room to head toward lower support levels before reaching oversold conditions.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving near the 40 level, reflecting the continuation of negative momentum without having reached oversold territory yet. The MACD indicator shows a bearish bias, and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains below the 200-day SMA.

Conversely, an upside reversal scenario would only begin to take shape if the EUR/USD price rises to break above the 1.1700 resistance barrier once again.

The EUR/USD pair will be influenced today by the European Central Bank’s policy announcement and the release of key US economic data, including the Producer Price Index and weekly jobless claims.

Trading Advice:

EUR/USD price will remain within tight ranges until the market reacts to these high-impact, critical data releases and events, keeping in mind that selling pressures persist.

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