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12 12, 2024

USD/JPY, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

By |2024-12-12T06:05:09+02:00December 12, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

USD/JPY tests the 200 SMA ahead of US CPI

  • US CPI is expected to rise 2.7% YoY
  • Japanese wholesale inflation rose to 3.7%
  • USD/JPY tests 200 SMA resistance

USD/JPY is rising for a third day as Japanese wholesale inflation accelerates ahead of US CPI.

The USD is  rising against its major peers ahead of the highly anticipated US CPI reading, which could provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s outlook for rate cuts.

Expectations are for CPI to rise to 2.7% YoY up from 2.6%. On a monthly basis CPI is expected to rise 0.2% Meanwhile core inflation is expected to hold steady at 3.3%.

A hotter-than-expected inflation could see the market rein in rate cut expectations for next year. The market is pricing in an 86% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, and are looking at around one rate cut per quarter in 2025.

Japanese corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge for goods and services, increased 3.7% in November ahead of forecasts of 3.4%, marking the quickest pace no price increase since July 2023

The acceleration in wholesale inflation lifted expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan on December 19 to 27%.

USD/JPY Forecast- technical analysis

USD/JPY has recovered from the 100 SMA support, rising back above 150 and is testing the 200 SMA resistance at 152.00.

Buyers will look to break above this level to test 153.85 the 61.8% Fib retracement of the 162 high and 139.50 low. Above here, 157.10, the 78.6% Fib level comes into play.

Failure to rise above the 200 SMA could see sellers test 150.00, the psychological level, ahead of 148.65, the December low, and the 100 SMA.

usd/jpy forecast chart

Oil rises for a third day on China optimism & ahead of the OPEC report

  • A looser monetary policy stance in 2025 lifts the demand outlook
  • OPEC’s monthly report to provide supply & demand clues
  • Oil trades in a familiar holding pattern.

Oil prices are heading higher for a third straight day, supported by optimism surrounding monetary policy change in China.

On Monday, Chinese authorities signaled they would adopt a looser monetary policy stance in 2025 to support the ailing economy.

The prospect of improved growth in China is helping to brighten the outlook for oil demand. In November, China imports rose for the first time in seven months, up 14% year over year.

Still, any changes to the Chinese monetary policy stance would be unlikely to do much in the case of further trade tariffs brought in by Trump.

Attention is now towards the OPEC monthly report, which could provide further insight into the supply and demand outlook. In previous reports group has highlighted increasing supply from outside of OPEC, possible supply surplus next year.

Separately, API oil inventory data shows that oil inventories rose 499k in the week ending Dec 6. Gasoline inventories rise by 2.85 million barrels. Expectations had been for a 900k increase in oil inventories and 1.7 million in gasoline.

Oil Forecast – technical analysis

Oil continues to consolidate in a familiar range, capped on the downside by 67.50 – 67 zone and o the upside by 71.50-72.50.

The longer-term trend is downward, with oil trading below its falling trendline dating back to September 2023 and its 200, 100, and 50 SMAs.

Sellers will look to take out the 67.50 support zone to test 65.25, the 2024 low, and 63.50, the 2023 low.

Buyers will need to rise above the 50 SMA at 70.50 to extend gains towards 71.50-72.50 zone – above here 75.00 comes into play.

oil FORECAST CHART

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12 12, 2024

XAU/USD extends rally above $2,700

By |2024-12-12T03:23:53+02:00December 12, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


XAU/USD Current price: $2,716.87

  • The Bank of Canada trimmed rates by 50 bps, the European Central Bank is next.
  • United States inflation rose at the anticipated pace in November.
  • XAU/USD bullish momentum set to continue toward record highs in the $2,790 region.

Gold is among the best performers against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, changing hands at around $2.712 a troy ounce in the American session. The Greenback seesawed between gains and losses throughout the day but ended up firming up against most major rivals, but the bright metal and the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the latter firmer amid the Bank of Canada (BoC) decision to trim interest rates by 50 basis points (bps).

 BoC Governor Tiff Macklem spoke after the announcement and said: “We anticipate a more gradual approach to monetary policy if the economy evolves broadly as expected.” He added that monetary policy no longer needs to be in restrictive territory, anticipating a more gradual approach to monetary policy if the economy evolves broadly as expected.

Meanwhile, the United States (US) published an update on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The index rose by 2.7% on a yearly basis in November. Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased 0.3%, while the annual core reading printed at 3.3%. The readings were in line with the market’s estimates, pushing the US Dollar temporarily, as investors lifted bets the Federal Reserve (Fed) will trim the main benchmark interest rate by 25 bps when it meets next week.

Coming up next is the European Central Bank (ECB), scheduled to deliver its decision on monetary policy on Thursday. Also, Australia will release its monthly employment report in the upcoming Asian session.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, XAU/USD is on its way to retest the record high at around $2,790. In the daily chart, the pair extends its advance above a now bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while 100 and 200 SMAs maintain their upward strength below the longer ones. At the same time, technical indicators advance within positive levels, albeit with uneven momentum, still supporting another leg north.

In the near term, the risk skews to the upside. Technical readings in the 4-hour chart show the pair reached overbought conditions, but there are no solid signs of an upcoming corrective decline. The Momentum indicator consolidates well above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads north at around 72. Finally, the pair develops above all its moving averages, with the 20 SMA crossing above the 200 SMA, usually a sign of additional gains ahead.

 Support levels: 2,704.25 2,689.80 2,672.35

Resistance levels: 2,722.60 2,735.90 2,751.00



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12 12, 2024

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Rallies to Nine-Day High, Breakout Signals Strength

By |2024-12-12T01:22:45+02:00December 12, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Looks to be Heading Towards 3.56

Nonetheless, today’s price action leaves natural gas wide open for a test of resistance around the recent swing high of 3.56, and a likely rally above it. If that high is exceeded the next likely target is the 2023 high of 3.64. That high begins the top trendlines marking the boundary of a large symmetrical triangle pattern.

It is important to note that the extended target for a rising ABCD pattern (purple) completes there as well at 3.67. Further up is the completion of an extended rising ABCD target at 3.87. A key point to consider is that a breakout above 3.64 will further confirm a bullish reversal of trend that is still making progress.

Symmetrical Triangle Breakout Proceeds

Price action following the breakout of a triangle pattern on November 20 has been a textbook example of bullish behavior so far. Once the breakout triggered the first two initial targets from prior swing highs were exceeded. Subsequently, after the high of 3.56 was reached a two-week correction began before finding support around the initial triangle breakout area of 3.02 last week.

Bullish Above 20-Day MA

Regardless of the potential for upside follow-through, a drop below today’s support at 3.18 would be short-term bearish. The 20-Day MA is a little lower at 3.14. The expectation is for natural gas to continue higher from here but that may begin to change if the 20-Day line fails to retain support. After today, the internal uptrend line on the chart will be adjusted down to connect with last week’s low.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.



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11 12, 2024

XAG/USD rises above $32.00 toward monthly highs

By |2024-12-11T23:20:04+02:00December 11, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Silver price bounced back toward Monday’s monthly high of $32.28.
  • Precious metals, including silver, gained support on news of potential economic stimulus measures from China.
  • Non-yielding assets like Silver receive support from the rising likelihood of the Fed’s rate cut again in December.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the third successive session, trading around $32.00 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The demand outlook for precious metals, including Silver, in the world’s largest consumer of raw materials has been increased following news of potential economic stimulus from China.

The Politburo announced plans to adopt a “moderately loose” monetary policy and a “more proactive” approach to fiscal stimulus next year, marking a departure from the more cautious tone of the past decade.

Silver prices receive support from increased odds of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates again in December. Markets are now pricing in nearly an 85.8% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

However, the upside of the Silver price could be restrained due to the stronger US Dollar (USD), which makes dollar-denominated Silver less affordable for buyers with foreign currencies, dampening its demand.

The US Dollar gains ground as traders adopt caution ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled to be released on Wednesday. The US CPI inflation is estimated to rise to 2.7% YoY in November from 2.6% in October. Meanwhile, the core CPI, excluding Food & Energy, is expected to increase 3.3% YoY. Any indications of stalled progress could significantly diminish the likelihood of a Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate cut.

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.



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11 12, 2024

Pivot level forms at 1.2750, eyes on US CPI

By |2024-12-11T22:00:59+02:00December 11, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase near 1.2750 early Wednesday.
  • Annual CPI inflation in the US is forecast to rise to 2.7% in November.
  • The near-term technical outlook highlight the pair’s indecisiveness.

GBP/USD registered modest gains for the second consecutive day on Tuesday but lost its traction early Wednesday. The pair stays near 1.2750 in the European morning as market focus shifts to the key November inflation report from the US.

British Pound PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.60% -0.04% 1.17% 0.19% 0.48% 1.09% 0.63%
EUR -0.60%   -0.62% 0.67% -0.32% -0.02% 0.58% 0.11%
GBP 0.04% 0.62%   1.12% 0.31% 0.60% 1.21% 0.74%
JPY -1.17% -0.67% -1.12%   -0.97% -0.57% -0.18% -0.43%
CAD -0.19% 0.32% -0.31% 0.97%   0.33% 0.90% 0.43%
AUD -0.48% 0.02% -0.60% 0.57% -0.33%   0.59% 0.13%
NZD -1.09% -0.58% -1.21% 0.18% -0.90% -0.59%   -0.47%
CHF -0.63% -0.11% -0.74% 0.43% -0.43% -0.13% 0.47%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The cautious market mood and rising US Treasury bond yields helped the US Dollar (USD) find demand on Tuesday and made it difficult for GBP/USD to stretch higher. Early Wednesday, the USD stays resilient against its rivals as US stock index futures trade mixed.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecast to rise 2.7% on a yearly basis in November, up slightly from the 2.6% increase recorded in October. The monthly core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase 0.3%. 

The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows that markets are pricing in a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December. Although inflation figures are unlikely to alter the market pricing of the Fed rate decision in a significant way, a surprise in the monthly core CPI could trigger a reaction in the near term.

In case the monthly core CPI rises 0.5% or more, the USD could gather strength and weigh on GBP/USD. On the other hand, a soft print of 0.2% lower could open the door for a leg higher in the pair.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

GBP/USD faces a pivot level at 1.2750, where the Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend is located. Once that level is confirmed as support, the pair could meet next resistance at 1.2770 (200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA)) before 1.2800 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).

Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.2700 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) and 1.2670 (100-period SMA).

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

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11 12, 2024

The American energy agency lowers its oil price forecasts for…

By |2024-12-11T21:19:29+02:00December 11, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


النفط

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for crude oil prices for the year 2025 in a report released on Tuesday. The U.S. energy sector anticipates that oil prices—both Brent and West Texas Intermediate—will face downward pressure, primarily due to a buildup of inventories in the second half of next year.

As a result, according to the new forecasts, the average price of Brent crude is expected to be $73.58 per barrel in 2025, down 3.26% from the previous forecast of $76.06.

Additionally, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude is projected to be $69.12 per barrel in 2025, decreasing 3.46% from last month’s estimate of $71.60.

Furthermore, global crude oil production is expected to reach an average of 77.81 million barrels per day next year, with OPEC+ contributing 35.87 million barrels, the United States producing 13.52 million barrels, and non-OPEC+ countries (excluding the United States) contributing the remaining 28.41 million barrels.





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11 12, 2024

US CPI in focus as cable hits resistance

By |2024-12-11T19:59:50+02:00December 11, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The GBP/USD has started to ease back as the dollar continues to make gains against other major currencies. The AUD/USD for example hit a 13-month low overnight, with a dovish RBA and concerns about Chinese demand weighing on the Aussie. Elsewhere, the EUR/USD is again testing waters around the 1.05 level amid speculation that the dollar will retain its yield advantage over the euro and other currencies once Trump’s expected spending spree and tax cuts are delivered next year. In contrast, the GBP/USD has only just started to turn lower again after staging a decent 2.5-week recovery from around 1.25 handle. Showcasing the GBP strength is the struggling EUR/GBP. With the latter testing the 0.82 support area, sterling is therefore trading at its best levels since March 2022 against the euro. But against the dollar, it has been held back. In fact, I reckon there is a good chance we may see the GBP/USD start to head lower again and may even go on to break 1.2500 support, once UK’s services inflation eases more significantly – possibly in early next year. If seen, that would allow the BoE to turn more dovish. So, the GBP/USD outlook remains bearish heading into 2025.

 

 

GBP/USD forecast: All eyes on US CPI

 

It’s been a quiet week on the European data front, with investors firmly focused on two key events: today’s US CPI release, due shortly at 13:300 GMT, and tomorrow’s ECB decision.

 

US CPI is expected to edge up to 2.7% year-over-year from 2.6%, serving as the final major data release before the Federal Reserve meets next week. While the Fed seems to have shifted its focus away from inflation, any upside surprise to the already elevated consensus forecast of 0.3% month-on-month for core inflation could boost the dollar.

 

While the December rate decision likely won’t hinge on this CPI print, an unexpectedly hot number could shape the Fed’s stance for early 2025. Following Friday’s softer-than-expected NFP report, markets are now almost fully pricing in a 25bps December rate cut, up from 70% last week. So far, this hasn’t significantly impacted the GBP/USD direction, but it has kept the upside limited, suggesting investors continue to prefer the dollar because of Trump’s forthcoming policies in 2025 expected to boost spending and cut taxes, thus keeping inflation risks alive.

 

Pound gaining strength against the euro

 

Compared to the euro, the pound has had the benefit of a more functioning government and a touch of fiscal stimulus. In contrast, the political gridlock currently gripping parts of continental Europe is a major reason why the euro is struggling. As a result, UK growth prospects for next year look a little brighter than the eurozone’s, although this doesn’t necessarily mean the GBP/USD will rise. Indeed, a potential shift in the BoE’s tone in February, as services inflation cools further, could pose a risk to the pound against all major currencies.

 

 

Technical GBP/USD forecast: Key levels to watch

 

GBP/USD forecast

Source: TradingView.com

 

From a purely technical point of view, the GBP/USD forecast is turning a little bearish again but with the CPI release due, u would probably wait until the data is out of the way before acting my views when it comes to trading the cable.

 

Anyway, key short-term support is at around 1.2715 area; if we break below here today decisively then this could pave the way for a drop to retest the bullish trend line (that has been re-established after a brief break) around 1.2600-1.26200 area. Below that level, we have the psychologically important 1.25 handle, which is basically where the cable last found support from after a brief breakdown to hit 1.2487 at its lowest point in November.

 

In term of resistance, the next level to watch in the event price continues to push higher is between the 1.2800 to 1.12870 range. Here, the cable had found both support and resistance in the past and is where the 200-day average also comes into play.

 

 

 

 

 

— Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

 

 



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11 12, 2024

Kenya’s Roasted Coffee Market Report 2024

By |2024-12-11T17:18:18+02:00December 11, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Roasted Coffee Market Size in Kenya

The Kenyan roasted coffee market declined modestly to $X in 2023, dropping by X% against the previous year. Overall, the total consumption indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption increased by X% against 2021 indices. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $X, and then shrank in the following year.

Roasted Coffee Production in Kenya

In value terms, roasted coffee production amounted to $X in 2023 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of X% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production increased by X% against 2021 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, production reached the maximum level in 2023 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Roasted Coffee Exports

Exports from Kenya

Roasted coffee exports from Kenya soared to X tons in 2023, rising by X% on 2022. Over the period under review, exports posted a significant increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by X%. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2023 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

In value terms, roasted coffee exports surged to $X in 2023. Overall, exports showed significant growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when exports increased by X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs in 2023 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports by Country

Denmark (X tons) was the main destination for roasted coffee exports from Kenya, accounting for a X% share of total exports. Moreover, roasted coffee exports to Denmark exceeded the volume sent to the second major destination, Finland (X tons), fivefold. The third position in this ranking was held by the Netherlands (X tons), with an X% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume to Denmark totaled X%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Finland (X% per year) and the Netherlands (X% per year).

In value terms, Denmark ($X) remains the key foreign market for roasted coffee exports from Kenya, comprising X% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Finland ($X), with a X% share of total exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a X% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of value to Denmark stood at X%. Exports to the other major destinations recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Finland (X% per year) and the Netherlands (X% per year).

Export Prices by Country

In 2023, the average roasted coffee export price amounted to $X per ton, with an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, continues to indicate a noticeable curtailment. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $X per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Saudi Arabia ($X per ton), while the average price for exports to the United States ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Saudi Arabia (X%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.

Roasted Coffee Imports

Imports into Kenya

After two years of growth, supplies from abroad of roasted coffee decreased by X% to X tons in 2023. Overall, imports, however, enjoyed resilient growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by X% against the previous year. Over the period under review, imports hit record highs at X tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, roasted coffee imports shrank sharply to $X in 2023. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a resilient expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of X%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure at $X in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports by Country

Italy (X tons), Uganda (X tons) and Portugal (X tons) were the main suppliers of roasted coffee imports to Kenya, together accounting for X% of total imports. Ethiopia, Germany and Switzerland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Germany (with a CAGR of X%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest roasted coffee suppliers to Kenya were Portugal ($X), Uganda ($X) and Italy ($X), with a combined X% share of total imports. Switzerland, Ethiopia and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further X%.

In terms of the main suppliers, Germany, with a CAGR of X%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices by Country

In 2023, the average roasted coffee import price amounted to $X per ton, declining by X% against the previous year. In general, the import price recorded a pronounced decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 when the average import price increased by X%. The import price peaked at $X per ton in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Switzerland ($X per ton), while the price for Italy ($X per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Portugal (X%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) :

China remains the largest roasted coffee consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 22% of total volume. Moreover, roasted coffee consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States, twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India, with an 8.4% share.

The country with the largest volume of roasted coffee production was China, comprising approx. 21% of total volume. Moreover, roasted coffee production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States, twofold. India ranked third in terms of total production with an 8.4% share.

In value terms, Portugal, Uganda and Italy appeared to be the largest roasted coffee suppliers to Kenya, with a combined 83% share of total imports. Switzerland, Ethiopia and Germany lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 14%.

In value terms, Denmark remains the key foreign market for roasted coffee exports from Kenya, comprising 64% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Finland, with a 15% share of total exports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 12% share.

In 2023, the average roasted coffee export price amounted to $7,799 per ton, picking up by 14% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, showed a noticeable slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 34%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $11,876 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

In 2023, the average roasted coffee import price amounted to $5,208 per ton, waning by -7.3% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a pronounced descent. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 when the average import price increased by 58% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure at $7,829 per ton in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.



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11 12, 2024

US CPI in focus as cable hits resistance

By |2024-12-11T15:58:01+02:00December 11, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

The GBP/USD has started to ease back as the dollar continues to make gains against other major currencies. The AUD/USD for example hit a 13-month low overnight, with a dovish RBA and concerns about Chinese demand weighing on the Aussie. Elsewhere, the EUR/USD is again testing waters around the 1.05 level amid speculation that the dollar will retain its yield advantage over the euro and other currencies once Trump’s expected spending spree and tax cuts are delivered next year. In contrast, the GBP/USD has only just started to turn lower again after staging a decent 2.5-week recovery from around 1.25 handle. Showcasing the GBP strength is the struggling EUR/GBP. With the latter testing the 0.82 support area, sterling is therefore trading at its best levels since March 2022 against the euro. But against the dollar, it has been held back. In fact, I reckon there is a good chance we may see the GBP/USD start to head lower again and may even go on to break 1.2500 support, once UK’s services inflation eases more significantly – possibly in early next year. If seen, that would allow the BoE to turn more dovish. So, the GBP/USD outlook remains bearish heading into 2025.

 

 

GBP/USD forecast: All eyes on US CPI

 

It’s been a quiet week on the European data front, with investors firmly focused on two key events: today’s US CPI release, due shortly at 13:300 GMT, and tomorrow’s ECB decision.

 

US CPI is expected to edge up to 2.7% year-over-year from 2.6%, serving as the final major data release before the Federal Reserve meets next week. While the Fed seems to have shifted its focus away from inflation, any upside surprise to the already elevated consensus forecast of 0.3% month-on-month for core inflation could boost the dollar.

 

While the December rate decision likely won’t hinge on this CPI print, an unexpectedly hot number could shape the Fed’s stance for early 2025. Following Friday’s softer-than-expected NFP report, markets are now almost fully pricing in a 25bps December rate cut, up from 70% last week. So far, this hasn’t significantly impacted the GBP/USD direction, but it has kept the upside limited, suggesting investors continue to prefer the dollar because of Trump’s forthcoming policies in 2025 expected to boost spending and cut taxes, thus keeping inflation risks alive.

 

Pound gaining strength against the euro

 

Compared to the euro, the pound has had the benefit of a more functioning government and a touch of fiscal stimulus. In contrast, the political gridlock currently gripping parts of continental Europe is a major reason why the euro is struggling. As a result, UK growth prospects for next year look a little brighter than the eurozone’s, although this doesn’t necessarily mean the GBP/USD will rise. Indeed, a potential shift in the BoE’s tone in February, as services inflation cools further, could pose a risk to the pound against all major currencies.

 

 

Technical GBP/USD forecast: Key levels to watch

 

GBP/USD forecast

Source: TradingView.com

 

From a purely technical point of view, the GBP/USD forecast is turning a little bearish again but with the CPI release due, u would probably wait until the data is out of the way before acting my views when it comes to trading the cable.

 

Anyway, key short-term support is at around 1.2715 area; if we break below here today decisively then this could pave the way for a drop to retest the bullish trend line (that has been re-established after a brief break) around 1.2600-1.26200 area. Below that level, we have the psychologically important 1.25 handle, which is basically where the cable last found support from after a brief breakdown to hit 1.2487 at its lowest point in November.

 

In term of resistance, the next level to watch in the event price continues to push higher is between the 1.2800 to 1.12870 range. Here, the cable had found both support and resistance in the past and is where the 200-day average also comes into play.

 

 

 

 

 

— Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

 

 



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11 12, 2024

USD/JPY, Oil Forecast: Two trades to watch

By |2024-12-11T13:57:24+02:00December 11, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

USD/JPY tests the 200 SMA ahead of US CPI

  • US CPI is expected to rise 2.7% YoY
  • Japanese wholesale inflation rose to 3.7%
  • USD/JPY tests 200 SMA resistance

USD/JPY is rising for a third day as Japanese wholesale inflation accelerates ahead of US CPI.

The USD is  rising against its major peers ahead of the highly anticipated US CPI reading, which could provide further insight into the Federal Reserve’s outlook for rate cuts.

Expectations are for CPI to rise to 2.7% YoY up from 2.6%. On a monthly basis CPI is expected to rise 0.2% Meanwhile core inflation is expected to hold steady at 3.3%.

A hotter-than-expected inflation could see the market rein in rate cut expectations for next year. The market is pricing in an 86% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, and are looking at around one rate cut per quarter in 2025.

Japanese corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge for goods and services, increased 3.7% in November ahead of forecasts of 3.4%, marking the quickest pace no price increase since July 2023

The acceleration in wholesale inflation lifted expectations of a 25 basis point rate hike from the Bank of Japan on December 19 to 27%.

USD/JPY Forecast- technical analysis

USD/JPY has recovered from the 100 SMA support, rising back above 150 and is testing the 200 SMA resistance at 152.00.

Buyers will look to break above this level to test 153.85 the 61.8% Fib retracement of the 162 high and 139.50 low. Above here, 157.10, the 78.6% Fib level comes into play.

Failure to rise above the 200 SMA could see sellers test 150.00, the psychological level, ahead of 148.65, the December low, and the 100 SMA.

usd/jpy forecast chart

Oil rises for a third day on China optimism & ahead of the OPEC report

  • A looser monetary policy stance in 2025 lifts the demand outlook
  • OPEC’s monthly report to provide supply & demand clues
  • Oil trades in a familiar holding pattern.

Oil prices are heading higher for a third straight day, supported by optimism surrounding monetary policy change in China.

On Monday, Chinese authorities signaled they would adopt a looser monetary policy stance in 2025 to support the ailing economy.

The prospect of improved growth in China is helping to brighten the outlook for oil demand. In November, China imports rose for the first time in seven months, up 14% year over year.

Still, any changes to the Chinese monetary policy stance would be unlikely to do much in the case of further trade tariffs brought in by Trump.

Attention is now towards the OPEC monthly report, which could provide further insight into the supply and demand outlook. In previous reports group has highlighted increasing supply from outside of OPEC, possible supply surplus next year.

Separately, API oil inventory data shows that oil inventories rose 499k in the week ending Dec 6. Gasoline inventories rise by 2.85 million barrels. Expectations had been for a 900k increase in oil inventories and 1.7 million in gasoline.

Oil Forecast – technical analysis

Oil continues to consolidate in a familiar range, capped on the downside by 67.50 – 67 zone and o the upside by 71.50-72.50.

The longer-term trend is downward, with oil trading below its falling trendline dating back to September 2023 and its 200, 100, and 50 SMAs.

Sellers will look to take out the 67.50 support zone to test 65.25, the 2024 low, and 63.50, the 2023 low.

Buyers will need to rise above the 50 SMA at 70.50 to extend gains towards 71.50-72.50 zone – above here 75.00 comes into play.

oil FORECAST CHART

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