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28 11, 2024

XAG/USD tests $30.00, next barrier appears at nine-day EMA

By |2024-11-28T16:09:32+02:00November 28, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Silver price tests a “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00.
  • The pair remains confined within a descending channel pattern, signaling a strong bearish bias.
  • A decisive break below the throwback support could drive the Silver price to approach its three-month low of $27.69.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $30.00 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday. The daily chart analysis indicates a dominant bearish bias, with the pair consolidating within a descending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, further supporting the bearish sentiment.

The XAG/USD pair continues to trade below the 14- and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing a bearish outlook and signaling weakening short-term price momentum. This points to limited buying interest and raises the likelihood of further price declines.

In terms of the upside, the Silver price finds a primary barrier around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average at $30.54, followed by the 14-day EMA at $30.78. Further resistance appears around the upper boundary of the descending channel at 31.20 level.

On the downside, the Silver price tests a “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00. A successful breach below this level could deepen bearish sentiment, potentially driving the asset price lower toward its three-month low of $27.69, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary at $27.50.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.



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28 11, 2024

Gains Amid USD Weakness -Video

By |2024-11-28T14:50:12+02:00November 28, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The Euro has rallied a bit during the early hours on Wednesday as we have seen the United States dollar give back some of its gains.
  • The US dollar was a little overbought.
  • So, it’s not a huge surprise to see that things are starting to shift in another direction.

That being said, I think you’ve got a scenario where the 1.05 level continues to be major support. The fact that the stochastic oscillator crossed in the oversold condition a few days ago probably has this EUR/USD market ready for a technical bounce. Whether or not this sticks is a completely different question, but keep in mind that the 1.06 level above is going to be a bit of a barrier. I’ll be watching that because if we can break above the 1.06 level, then we have further gains ahead.

Short Term Pullbacks

Short term pullbacks probably end up showing signs of support near the 1.05 level again. And anything below there I think probably has some issues. Fundamentally speaking, the United States came out with the PCE numbers on Wednesday exactly as expected, right along with preliminary GDP and weekly unemployment claims came within about 2000 jobs from expected numbers. So, with all of that being said, I think the market is probably seeing some short covering due to the Thanksgiving holiday as a lot of the major traders in New York at least won’t be at their desk tomorrow for Thanksgiving. And then again on Friday, because most Americans take both days off if they can.

What will be interesting is to see how this pair behaves next week. I think anything above 1.0750 could change the trend again, but right now, this looks like a market where you will probably be fading signs of exhaustion after rallies. At this point, although the euro looks like it wants to rally, the reality is that the upside is probably still somewhat limited.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best forex demo accounts worth trading with. 

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28 11, 2024

GBP/USD Forecast Today 28/11: Tests Key Resistance (Video)

By |2024-11-28T12:49:18+02:00November 28, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The British pound has rallied rather significantly during the day, gaining 0.9% by midday in North America.
  • It’ll be interesting to see what happens next because the 1.27 level above is what I consider to be a significant barrier.
  • If we can break above the 1.27 level, it’s very possible that this pair goes another 200 pips to the upside.

On the other hand, if we fail here, then I think we just say that we are in a basing pattern. The US dollar has given up quite a bit of its gains over the last couple of days against multiple currencies, but I think part of this is just simply profit taking. After all, it was just about six weeks ago that we were all the way up at 1.3450 and dropped drastically, roughly a thousand pips.

What I’m seeing with the US dollar is around the world. It’s not just in the British pound, but it’s also worth noting that the British pound for the longest time had fared better than many other currencies against the green bag.

Levels That Matter

The rubber meets the road here at the 1.27 level, so I will be watching it. And if we can get above there, then that 1.29 level comes into focus. But we also have the 200 day EMA and the 50 day EMA in that range offering a bit of resistance. If the market were to turn around and fall below the 1.25 level, then the 1.23 level gets targeted. But right now, that doesn’t look very likely. What will be interesting to see is how this GBP/USD market behaves on Thursday, as it is Thanksgiving in the United States.

That might be part of what we are seeing here is that New York traders are covering shorts so that they don’t get caught away from their desk with a big loser. So only time will tell on that, but I am watching these levels. There are some very clear levels in cable that will come to fruition here and influence where we go next. 

Ready to trade our daily GBP/USD Forex forecast? Here’s some of the best forex broker UK reviews to check out. 

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28 11, 2024

XAG/USD tests $30.00, next barrier appears at nine-day EMA: Analytics and Market news from 28 November 2024 09:15

By |2024-11-28T12:07:28+02:00November 28, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Silver price tests a “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00.
  • The pair remains confined within a descending channel pattern, signaling a strong bearish bias.
  • A decisive break below the throwback support could drive the Silver price to approach its three-month low of $27.69.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $30.00 per troy ounce during the European hours on Thursday. The daily chart analysis indicates a dominant bearish bias, with the pair consolidating within a descending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, further supporting the bearish sentiment.

The XAG/USD pair continues to trade below the 14- and nine-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), reinforcing a bearish outlook and signaling weakening short-term price momentum. This points to limited buying interest and raises the likelihood of further price declines.

In terms of the upside, the Silver price finds a primary barrier around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average at $30.54, followed by the 14-day EMA at $30.78. Further resistance appears around the upper boundary of the descending channel at 31.20 level.

On the downside, the Silver price tests a “throwback support” at the psychological level of $30.00. A successful breach below this level could deepen bearish sentiment, potentially driving the asset price lower toward its three-month low of $27.69, followed by the descending channel’s lower boundary at $27.50.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.





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28 11, 2024

Euro holds above key technical level ahead of German inflation data

By |2024-11-28T10:48:23+02:00November 28, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • EUR/USD gathered bullish momentum and closed above 1.0550 on Wednesday.
  • The pair retreats slightly in the European morning on Thursday.
  • Investors await Consumer Price Index data from Germany.

EUR/USD capitalized on the selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) and registered strong gains on Wednesday. Before reaching 1.0600, however, the pair went into a consolidation phase and was last seen trading near 1.0550.

Euro PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   -1.10% -0.94% -1.58% 0.50% 0.28% -0.50% -0.83%
EUR 1.10%   -0.01% -1.07% 1.01% 1.32% 0.03% -0.35%
GBP 0.94% 0.00%   -1.07% 1.02% 1.33% 0.04% -0.34%
JPY 1.58% 1.07% 1.07%   2.09% 2.31% 1.14% 0.89%
CAD -0.50% -1.01% -1.02% -2.09%   -0.06% -0.98% -1.39%
AUD -0.28% -1.32% -1.33% -2.31% 0.06%   -1.28% -1.64%
NZD 0.50% -0.03% -0.04% -1.14% 0.98% 1.28%   -0.38%
CHF 0.83% 0.35% 0.34% -0.89% 1.39% 1.64% 0.38%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The USD weakened against its rivals midweek following mixed macroeconomic data releases. Moreover, position adjustments heading into the Thanksgiving Day holiday may have played a part in the currency’s underperformance. 

Durable Goods Orders rose by 0.2% on a monthly basis in October, falling short of the market expectation for an increase of 0.5%. On a positive note, weekly Initial Jobless Claims declined to 213,000 from 215,000 in the previous week. Finally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, rose 2.3% on a yearly basis, matching the market consensus, while the annual core PCE inflation edged higher to 2.8% from 2.7%.

Later in the session, regional and nation-wide inflation data from Germany will be watched closely by investors. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Germany is forecast to decline 0.2% in November. A positive reading could help the Euro gather strength with the immediate reaction.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said that they could gradually move toward a neutral rate, given the inflation outlook, but warned against moving too far into accommodative territory.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD broke out of its descending regression channel by rising above 1.0520 on Wednesday and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed above 50, reflecting a bullish tilt in the short-term outlook. In case 1.0520 continues to hold as support, technical buyers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.0580 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, could be seen as first resistance before 1.0610 (static level) and 1.0660 (static level).

If EUR/USD returns below 1.0520, it could face interim support at 1.0500 (round level, 20-period SMA) ahead of 1.0440 (static level) and 1.0400 (round level).

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

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28 11, 2024

XAG/USD falls below $30.00 due to easing geopolitical tensions

By |2024-11-28T08:04:55+02:00November 28, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Silver price depreciates due to safe-haven flows diminishing amid easing Middle-East tensions.
  • A ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was successfully upheld on Wednesday.
  • Dollar-denominated Silver faces headwinds as an improved US Dollar increases its cost for buyers using other currencies, potentially dampening demand.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around $29.90 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Thursday. The decline in Silver prices can be attributed to safe-haven flows diminishing amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

A ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah was successfully upheld on Wednesday, following a deal mediated by the United States (US) and France. This truce has allowed people in the border areas, devastated by 14 months of conflict, to begin returning to their homes. However, Israel continues its military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, according to Reuters.

The price of dollar-denominated Silver has been pressured by an improved US dollar (USD) as the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to remain cautious about cutting interest rates following Wednesday’s robust inflation data. The report indicated solid growth in consumer spending for October, but it also highlighted a stagnation in progress toward lowering inflation, keeping the Fed on alert.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.3% year-over-year in October, up from 2.1% in September. Meanwhile, the core PCE Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 2.8%, slightly higher than the 2.7% recorded the previous month. Both figures aligned with market expectations, indicating steady inflationary pressure within the economy.

Demand of the non-yielding Silver receives downward pressure due to optimism in the bond market following the selection of Scott Bessent as US Treasury Secretary in the incoming administration. Bessent has advocated for a phased approach to trade restrictions and expressed a willingness to negotiate tariff levels in coordination with President-elect Donald Trump.

Silver traders still assess the recent Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Meeting Minutes for the policy meeting held on November 7, which indicated that policymakers are adopting a cautious stance on cutting interest rates, citing easing inflation and a robust labor market.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in a 68.1% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in December, up from 59.4%, a day ago. Nonetheless, they anticipate the Fed leaving rates unchanged at its January and March meetings.

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.



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28 11, 2024

XAU/USD looks to revisit $2,600 amid Bear Cross on Thanksgiving Day

By |2024-11-28T06:04:15+02:00November 28, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price returns to the red early Thursday as US Dollar pauses decline alongside US Treasury bond yields. 
  • Bear Cross and bearish RSI on the daily chart continue to favor Gold sellers.
  • Gold price remains subject to intense volatility due to Thanksgiving Day holiday-led thin liquidity.

Gold price reverts toward the weekly low of $2,605 in Asian trading on Thanksgiving Thursday, snapping a two-day recovery. The US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields breathe a sigh of relief, exerting downward pressure on the Gold price amid holiday-thinned trading conditions.  

Gold sellers fight back control

Following a profit-taking decline so far this week, the USD appears to have regained its footing, even though the uptick in US Treasury bond yields seems temporary amid uncertainty over the implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans on economic prospects and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook.

Markets witness renewed jitters amid a tech sell-off on Asian indices following fresh reports that the US is expected to announce another set of measures on Monday to restrain China’s ability to develop advanced artificial intelligence (AI).

The fresh risk-aversion wave aids the US Dollar rebound, especially after traders cashed in on their USD longs earlier this week, closing out their positions heading into the Thanksgiving holiday break.

Gold price also suffers in the face of a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah on Wednesday.

Growing trade war fears, however, could cushion the downside in the traditional safe-haven Gold price. Further, sustained expectations that the Fed will lower rates by 15 basis points (bps) next month lend support to Gold optimists.

The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that markets now price in about 68% of a December Fed rate cut, up from 62% before the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data on Wednesday.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Price Index, increased at 0.3% on a monthly basis and an annual reading of 2.8%, aligning with market expectations.

Looking ahead, volatility around Gold price could remain high, given thin liquidity as US traders are away on account of Thanksgiving Day. Therefore, exaggerated price action in Gold cannot be ruled out.

That said, traders will pay close attention to any headlines concerning trade globally, which could significantly impact risk sentiment and the USD-sensitive Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Technically, the bearish bias remains intact for Gold price as a Bear Cross is in play and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points lower below the 50 level, currently near 46.

The 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closed below the 50-day SMA on Tuesday, confirming the Bear Cross.

The immediate support is at the weekly low of $2,605, below which a drop toward the 100-day SMA at $2,571 cannot be ruled out.  

A sustained break below that level is needed to take on the November 14 low of $2,537.

Conversely, Gold buyers must find acceptance above the 21-day SMA at $2,654 to initiate a fresh recovery.

The next relevant upside targets are at the 50-day SMA at $2,669 and the $2,700 level.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 



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28 11, 2024

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Faces Bearish Pullback After Recent Trend High

By |2024-11-28T02:02:13+02:00November 28, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Second Sharp Selloff Since Top

Judging by the bearish reaction following the new trend high of 3.56 last Friday, resistance was seen near the top trendline of a parallel trend channel. The channel shows price symmetry, which can be seen with the rising dashed center line that is drawn up the middle of the channel. Once one end of the symmetrical pattern is hit and price reverses, the other end of the pattern becomes a target.

Given the decisive nature of today’s drop, it looks like there is a good chance that lower targets may be tested. For gold, that would be indicated on a test of support around the lower channel line and 20-Day MA. Since the 20-Day MA (purple), another trend indicator, has converged with the bottom channel line, it can be used as a proxy for the line. Currently, it is at 2.95.

Interim Support Levels

Nonetheless, there are other price areas to watch on the way down. Either may see signs of support. Next in line is the 3.16 swing high from June. The 3.02 swing high follows a little lower. It is a potentially significant price area as it signaled the recent bull breakout on November 20. A successful test of support around the 20-Day MA would realign the gold trend and keep it at a more sustainable slope. It is also interesting to note that potential support from the top downtrend line also converges around the 20-Day MA price level.

Bull Triangle Breakout is Dominant Pattern

A deeper retracement from last week’s 3.45 peak would be healthy for the market and help squeeze out some speculation. On November 20 natural gas broke out of a large bullish symmetrical triangle pattern. As with any breakout, a pullback to test prior resistance as support is normal behavior. Once a counter-trend decline completes, the larger and more powerful bullish pattern should be ready to proceed.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.



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27 11, 2024

XAU/USD eases from daily highs as bears seize control

By |2024-11-27T22:00:41+02:00November 27, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


XAU/USD Current price: $2,639.36

  • United States data played against safe-haven demand.
  • US Dollar’s broad weakness limits XAU/USD slide in the near term.
  • XAU/USD is at risk of falling despite advancing for a second consecutive day.

Spot Gold is up on Wednesday after a bundle of  United States (US) macroeconomic data ended up weighing on the US Dollar(USD), albeit modestly. The USD came under modest selling pressure previous to the news, helping XAU/USD reach an intraday high of $2,658.11 during European trading hours. After the dust settled, the Greenback is showing only partial strength against the bright metal.

The country published the second estimate of the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which was upwardly revised quarter over quarter (QoQ) to 1.9% from 1.8%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended November 22 improved to 213K from the previous 215K, also beating expectations of 217K.

Durable Goods Orders, in the meantime, rose a modest 0.2% in October, worse than the 0.5% advance anticipated but better than the -0.4% posted in September. Finally, the October Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 0.2% MoM and 2.3% YoY as expected. The core annual figure increased by 2.8% YoY, also meeting the market’s forecast.

 The figures had no actual impact on upcoming Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decisions, with the central bank on its way to trim interest rates by 25 bps in December. Yet, at the same time, the numbers show that the economy is doing relatively well. There is no recession in sight, unemployment is near healthy levels, and inflation is close to the Fed’s goal.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily for XAU/USD shows it currently hovers around $2,640, up for a second consecutive day. The risk, however, skews to the downside. Sellers rejected buyers around a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA), while technical indicators remain within negative levels, with neutral-to-bearish slopes. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, keep heading higher below the current level, with the 100 SMA providing dynamic support at around $2,568.40.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, bears are also in control. The pair met sellers around a bearish 20 SMA and is currently below an also bearish 100 SMA. Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreated sharply after failing to overcome their midlines, in line with another leg south, particularly if XAU/USD extends its slide below the $2,626 area.

Support levels: 2,626.70 2,611.35 2,598.70  

Resistance levels: 2,643.30 2,655.00 2,671.55



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27 11, 2024

Japanese Yen buying remains unabated, USD/JPY slides below 152.00 ahead of US data

By |2024-11-27T20:42:00+02:00November 27, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The Japanese Yen draws haven flows amid concerns over Trump’s tariff plans and geopolitical risks. 
  • The USD languishes near the weekly low amid sliding US bond yields and weighs on the USD/JPY pair.
  • BoJ rate-hike uncertainty warrants caution for the JPY bulls ahead of the crucial US inflation data. 

The Japanese Yen (JPY) buying remains uninterrupted on Wednesday, which, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness, drags the USD/JPY pair below the 152.00 mark, or a three-week low during the early European session. Against the backdrop of geopolitical risks stemming from the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff plans turn out to be key factors driving flows towards the safe-haven JPY. 

Furthermore, expectations that Trump’s US Treasury Secretary nominee, Scott Bessent will restrain budget deficits continue to drag the US Treasury bond yields lower. This, in turn, keeps the USD bulls on the defensive near the weekly low and offers additional support to the lower-yielding JPY. That said, the uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate-hike plans could act as a headwind for the JPY ahead of Wednesday’s important US macro releases. 

Japanese Yen bulls retain near-term control amid flight to safety, sliding US bond yields

  • Concerns that US President-elect Donald Trump’s tariffs would trigger trade wars, and impact the global economy, continue to drive some haven flows towards the Japanese Yen. 
  • Scott Bessent’s nomination as the US Treasury secretary provided some respite to US bond investors and dragged the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield to a two-week low on Monday.
  • Data released on Tuesday showed broadening service-sector inflation in Japan, keeping the door open for another rate hike by the Bank of Japan at its next policy meeting in December. 
  • Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Tuesday that he would ask companies to implement significant wage hikes at the annual “Shuntō” negotiations next spring.
  • The November FOMC meeting minutes revealed that the Committee could pause its easing of the policy rate and hold it at a restrictive level if inflation remained elevated.
  • Officials expressed confidence that inflation is easing and the labor market is strong, which should allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates further, albeit at a gradual pace.
  • According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in a 63% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points in December. 
  • The US Dollar struggles to gain any meaningful traction and languishes near the weekly low touched on Tuesday, exerting additional pressure on the USD/JPY pair. 
  • Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group said that it launched drones towards Israel on Tuesday night, while Israel launched air strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs.
  • Moments later, US President Joe Biden announced that Lebanon and Israel have agreed to the ceasefire deal, which comes into effect from 02:00 GMT this Wednesday.
  • Traders now look forward to the first revision of the US Q3 GDP print and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for some meaningful impetus.
  • The market attention will then shift to a slew of Japanese macro data, including Tokyo’s Core CPI report, due for release during the Asian session on Friday. 

USD/JPY acceptance below the 152.00 pivotal support sets the stage for deeper losses

From a technical perspective, the overnight close below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent downfall favors bearish traders. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining negative traction and support prospects for a further USD/JPY depreciating move. Hence, some follow-through weakness towards the very important 200-day SMA, currently pegged around the 152.00 mark, looks like a distinct possibility. A convincing break below the latter could expose the monthly swing low, around the 151.30-151.25 region. 

On the flip side, the 153.00 round figure might now act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 153.25-153.30 region. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a short-covering rally and allow the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 154.00 mark. The upward trajectory could extend further towards the 154.60 intermediate hurdle en route to the 155.00 psychological mark and the next relevant hurdle near the 155.35-155.40 area.

Economic Indicator

Gross Domestic Product Annualized

The real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, released quarterly by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, measures the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a given period of time. Changes in GDP are the most popular indicator of the nation’s overall economic health. The data is expressed at an annualized rate, which means that the rate has been adjusted to reflect the amount GDP would have changed over a year’s time, had it continued to grow at that specific rate. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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