Experts predict that coffee prices on October 26, 10 in the domestic market may continue to decline due to market impacts. world and the new harvest situation in Vietnam.

Currently, many coffee gardens in Vietnam are starting to ripen and people are harvesting. This is one of the factors that causes the market to continue to decrease in price because Vietnam is the largest supplier of robusta coffee in the world. Although at present, coffee prices are still high at over 100.000 VND/kg, the prolonged decline has also made many people worried about the refrain “every harvest season, prices decrease”.

Poor weather in Brazil has also contributed to the price drop. According to Somar Meteorologia, rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest coffee-producing state, reached 36,8 mm last week, 15% higher than the historical average.

In addition, although the Dollar Index decreased, the Brazilian Real decreased more sharply, causing the USD/BRL exchange rate to increase. In this context, the market is concerned that Brazilian farmers will increase sales due to earning more foreign currency, thereby creating downward pressure on prices.

Recorded in the trading session on October 25, 10, domestic coffee prices today increased slightly by 2024 – 200 VND/kg, ranging from 300 – 109.600 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 110.000 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong 110.000 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 109.800 VND, an increase of 200 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 109.700 VND/kg; In the province Kon Tum at the price of 109.800 VND/kg, an increase of 200 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of 110.000 VND/kg, an increase of 300 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee was purchased at 109.600 VND/kg, an increase of 200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (April 25) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 109.800 VND/kg, an increase of 200 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 109.700 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on August 25, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for delivery in September 2024 on the London floor is at 11 USD/ton, an increase 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 25, 10: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, an increase of 4.346 USD; Delivery term in January 9 is 3 USD/ton, up 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.269 is 3 USD/ton, up 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 25, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 25, 10 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 242.25 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in September 12 is 2024 cents/lb; increased 246.95 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. December 1.50 delivery is 3 cents/lb, an increase of 2025 cents/lb; March 246.05 delivery is 1.60 cents/lb, up 5 cents/lb and May 2025 delivery is 244.80 cents/lb, up 1.80 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 25, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 25, 10 decreased. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 298.10 is 0.03 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 298.55 USD/ton, down 0.15% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, down 297.25%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), more than 95% of Vietnam’s coffee output in the coming season will be robusta. The growing popularity of instant and take-away coffee, combined with limited supplies due to weather, has caused robusta prices to double over the past year. The current price of robusta is almost equal to that of premium arabica, which has also increased sharply in recent times.

Volcafe Ltd., a major coffee trader, forecasts a severe global robusta deficit in the 2024-2025 crop year, which would be the fourth consecutive year of such a deficit.

*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality

Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the coming years, with a potential rise to $80 per barrel in the last quarter of 2024, before dipping to the low $60s by the end of 2025, according to a report by JP Morgan. 

The report attributes the current volatility to geopolitical tensions in West Asia, but notes that key players in the region, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have strong economic incentives to keep the conflict contained.

“The current situation suggests a sustained geopolitical premium in crude prices until the conflict is resolved in the short term,” said Natasha Kaneva, JP Morgan’s head of global commodities strategy.

Crude oil prices have seen a steady rise, with Brent crude moving from $71 per barrel in late September to nearly $81 in early October, only to drop back to around $73 as demand concerns surfaced. Analysts also highlight weak demand from major economies like China and the U.S., contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Rabobank International expects the market to be oversupplied by about 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, which could drive prices lower.

Petroleum Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, remains confident about the country’s ability to manage crude supplies despite geopolitical concerns. “There is no shortage of oil,” Puri said at a recent event, adding that additional supplies from Brazil and Guyana are helping to stabilize the market. He also acknowledged that while geopolitical tensions can inflate costs due to higher freight and insurance, India’s crude needs will be met. India imports over 85% of its crude oil, making price stability crucial for managing inflation and fuel costs domestically.

Key points from the JP Morgan and Rabobank reports:

• 2024 Price Forecast: Crude prices are expected to reach $80 per barrel in Q4 2024 due to geopolitical tensions.
• 2025 Price Outlook: Prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025, driven by weak demand and an oversupplied market.
• Supply Concerns: Global oil inventories are at their lowest since 2017, but additional supplies from countries like Brazil and Guyana are expected to ease pressure.
• Geopolitical Risks: Tensions in West Asia, particularly concerning Israel and Iran, could cause price spikes, especially if the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil transit route, is disrupted.
• While JP Morgan and Rabobank forecast an oversupplied market by 2025, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised its 2025 global oil demand forecast down by 300,000 bpd, now expecting demand to reach 104.3 million bpd. OPEC has also cut its demand growth projections for 2024 and 2025, citing weaker consumption globally.

Puri emphasized that despite these fluctuations, India’s energy security remains intact, pointing to India’s preparedness in managing any disruptions to global oil supplies.

• Gold corrected lower after touching a new all-time high at $2,758.
• The technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact in the near term.
• Next week’s economic calendar will feature key US data releases that could impact Gold’s valuation.

Gold (XAU/USD) extended its uptrend and reached a new all-time high above $2,750. Rising US Treasury bond yields and the improving risk mood, however, made it difficult for the precious metal to preserve its bullish momentum in the second half of the week. The US economic calendar will feature Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the third quarter and labor market figures for October, which could significantly affect Gold’s valuation next week.

Gold loses bullish momentum 

Gold edged higher to start the week as the People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) decision to cut the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 25 basis points (bps) from 3.35% to 3.10% eased concerns over an economic downturn. Additionally, escalating geopolitical tensions allowed the precious metal to capture safe-haven demand on Monday as markets reacted to reports of Hezbollah claiming responsibility for a drone attack that targeted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s house over the weekend.

XAU/USD preserved its bullish momentum on Tuesday and gained more than 1% on the day. In the absence of high-tier data releases, Gold continued to benefit from the souring market mood. After reaching a new all-time high of $2,758 during the European trading hours on Wednesday, the precious metal reversed its direction and closed the day with a 1.2% loss. Rising US Treasury bond yields and the broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength caused XAU/USD to lose its footing midweek. Additionally, profit-taking after the record-setting rally may have ramped up the bearish pressure. 

On Thursday, data from the US showed that the business activity in the private sector continued to grow at a healthy pace in early October, with the preliminary S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edging higher to 54.3 in October from 54.0 in September. Assessing the survey’s findings, “October saw business activity continue to grow at an encouragingly solid pace, sustaining the economic upturn that has been recorded in the year to date into the fourth quarter,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence and added: “The October flash PMI is consistent with GDP growing at an annualized rate of around 2.5%.” Gold struggled to gather recovery momentum after this report and ended the day modestly higher.

The market action turned choppy heading into the weekend and Gold spent Friday fluctuating in a relatively narrow range.

Gold investors gear up for key data releases

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the first estimate of the annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the third quarter on Wednesday. Investors forecast the US GDP to expand by 3% in this period, matching the growth recorded in the second quarter. A reading above the market expectation could boost the USD as the immediate reaction and cause XAU/USD to stretch lower. On the other hand, a disappointing GDP print, between 1% and 2%, could hurt the USD.

On Thursday, the BEA will publish the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, for September. Because the GDP report will also offer quarterly PCE Price Index numbers, the monthly data is unlikely to trigger a market reaction.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the labor market data for October on Friday. In September, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 254,000. This reading surpassed the market expectation of 140,000 by a wide margin and caused markets to refrain from pricing in a 50 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut in November.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets nearly fully price in a 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting and see about a 70% chance of the Fed lowering the policy rate by a total of 50 bps by the end of the year. At this point, it would take a significant downside surprise in NFP for markets to reconsider the possibility of a large rate cut either in November or December. In case the NFP comes in at or below 100,000, the USD could come under heavy selling pressure and open the door for a Gold rally heading into the weekend.

Conversely, an NFP print between 180,000 and 220,000 could be seen as a ‘good enough’ figure for the Fed to opt for two 25 bps rate cuts by the end of the year. Finally, investors could doubt a rate cut in December if the NFP arrives near 300,000 or higher. In this scenario, XAU/USD could come under strong bearish pressure.

Gold technical outlook

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart retreated toward 60 after rising above 70 earlier in the week, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact after Gold corrected its overbought conditions. Additionally, XAU/USD remains within the ascending regression channel coming from June.

Looking south, first support could be spotted at $2,700, where the mid-point of the ascending channel is located, before $2,675 (20-day Simple Moving Average) and $2,635 (lower limit of the ascending channel). 

On the upside, interim resistance seems to have formed at $2,750 before $2,770 (upper limit of the ascending channel) and $2,800 (round level). 

In a significant upward revision, the leading global investment banking, securities, and asset and wealth management firm, Goldman Sachs, has enhanced its 2025 price forecasts for aluminium and copper, driven by increased demand potential in China, the world’s largest consumer of these metals.

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The investment banking giant has adjusted its 2025 average aluminium price outlook to $2,700 per tonne, up from the previous forecast of $2,540 per tonne. Meanwhile, the average copper price forecast has also seen a rise, now set at $10,160 per tonne, an increase from $10,100.

These changes come as the London Metal Exchange (LME) reports aluminium trading near $2,634.50 a tonne, following a peak of $2,715—the highest level since May 31. LME copper is currently trading at $9,510.50 a tonne.

• Silver price loses ground due to the robust performance of the US Dollar (USD) and higher Treasury yields.
• The US Dollar gains ground as recent data bolster the chances of the Fed adopting a less-dovish rates policy.
• The Silver may appreciate due to market caution amid uncertainties regarding the upcoming US presidential election.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around $33.50 during Friday’s Asian hours. The downside of the precious metal Silver price could be attributed to the robust performance of the US Dollar (USD) and higher Treasury yields.

On Thursday, data indicated that US unemployment claims dropped significantly in late October, underscoring the strength of the labor market. Additionally, a rise in the S&P PMI further highlights robust momentum in the private sector.

The strong US economic data bolster the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a less aggressive approach to interest rate cuts than previously thought. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November, with no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point cut.

Despite the challenges, safe-haven Silver may find upward support due to uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US presidential election. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead of 46% to 43% over former President Donald Trump in a six-day poll that closed on Monday.

Silver price may gain support from safe-haven flows amid uncertainties regarding the Middle East situation. Traders watch for Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack on October 1. In parallel, US and Israeli officials are preparing to resume talks on a potential ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza in the coming days.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated Thursday that the United States does not support a prolonged Israeli campaign in Lebanon, while France has advocated for an immediate ceasefire and diplomatic efforts.