• Silver price loses ground due to the robust performance of the US Dollar (USD) and higher Treasury yields.
• The US Dollar gains ground as recent data bolster the chances of the Fed adopting a less-dovish rates policy.
• The Silver may appreciate due to market caution amid uncertainties regarding the upcoming US presidential election.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the third successive session, trading around $33.50 during Friday’s Asian hours. The downside of the precious metal Silver price could be attributed to the robust performance of the US Dollar (USD) and higher Treasury yields.

On Thursday, data indicated that US unemployment claims dropped significantly in late October, underscoring the strength of the labor market. Additionally, a rise in the S&P PMI further highlights robust momentum in the private sector.

The strong US economic data bolster the likelihood that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a less aggressive approach to interest rate cuts than previously thought. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November, with no expectation of a larger 50-basis-point cut.

Despite the challenges, safe-haven Silver may find upward support due to uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US presidential election. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead of 46% to 43% over former President Donald Trump in a six-day poll that closed on Monday.

Silver price may gain support from safe-haven flows amid uncertainties regarding the Middle East situation. Traders watch for Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack on October 1. In parallel, US and Israeli officials are preparing to resume talks on a potential ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza in the coming days.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated Thursday that the United States does not support a prolonged Israeli campaign in Lebanon, while France has advocated for an immediate ceasefire and diplomatic efforts.

• Gold price turns south after facing rejection once again above $2,740 on Thursday.
• The US Dollar licks wounds with Treasury bond yields amid a mixed market mood.
• Technically, Gold price remains a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade, as range play is set to extend.

Gold price is on the back foot early Friday, as sellers return on a failure to find a strong foothold above the $2,740 static resistance yet again. Attention now turns toward a fresh batch of US economic data and speeches from US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers for a fresh direction impetus in Gold price.

Gold price eyes fresh US data for a range breakout

Gold price extends its upside consolidative mode into the second consecutive day in Asian trading on Friday. However, it remains confined in a familiar range since the start of this week even after recxording a fresh lifetime high at $2,759 on Wednesday.

The Gold price action is divided between the increased expectations that the Fed will opt for a less aggressive easing policy in the coming months and uncertainty around the US presidential elections combined with rife Middle East geopolitical concerns.

Additionally, the US corporate earnings reports also play a pivot role in driving risk sentiment, and hence the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and Gold price.  

That said, the upcoming US Durable Goods Orders and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment data could provide fresh hints on the state of the US economy, which could impact the Fed rate cut expectations and the US Dollar’s value in the near term.

Thus, Gold price could see a fresh direction move on the US data releases and a speech by Boston Fed president Susan Collins.

On Thursday, Gold price snapped its correction and rebounded 1% as the USD pulled back sharply with the US Treasury bond yields, as risk flows remained on Tesla’s earnings optimism while uncertainty in the run-up to the US election provided a fresh lift to Gold price.

Markets are pricing in a victory for the Republican nominee and the former US President Donald Trump in the presidential race, and his trade and fiscal policies are seen as inflationary, for which the Gold price could emerge as the go-to asset as a hedge against inflation.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

Gold price has turned south once again to test the previous resistance now support at $2,723, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) level of the latest record rally from the October 10 low of $2,604 to an all-time high of $2,759.

A failure to defend that level on a daily candlestick closing basis could accelerate the declines toward the 38.2% Fibo level of the same ascent at $2,700.

Further south, the 50% Fibo support at $2,681 will be put to the test, near where the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) closes in.  

On the flip side, acceptance above the $2,740 static resistance is critical to resuming a sustained uptrend.

Gold buyers would then take on the $2,750 psychological barrier. The record high of $2,759 will be next on buyers’ radars.  

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pointing lower but holds comfortable above the 50 level, currently trading near 65, suggesting that any decline in Gold price could be seen as a good dip-buying opportunity.  

• Silver price recovers from a four-day low but remains stuck in a $1 range, failing to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar and falling yields.
• Momentum supports buyers, with RSI in bullish territory, as XAG/USD targets the YTD high of $34.86 and beyond.
• A break below $33.25 could shift bias to neutral, with further support at $33.00 and the October 17 low of $31.32.

Silver consolidated at around $33.60 as grey metal bulls failed to capitalize on falling US yields and a weak US Dollar. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is seesawing within a $1 range and virtually unchanged.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver price recovered some ground after falling to a four-day low of $33.25. The uptrend remains intact, and if buyers lift the XAG/USD spot price above $34.00 a troy ounce, they could challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high at $34.86.

Momentum backs buyers, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) persisting in bullish territory.

If XAG/USD clears the YTD high, the next key resistance levels would be the October 2012 peak at $35.40, ahead of challenging the psychological $40.00, and the August 2011 high at $44.22.

Conversely, if the grey metal drops below $33.25, the next support would be $33.00. The break below could shift the bias to neutral, and if sellers drive Silver’s below October 17 low of $31.32, XAG/USD might reach the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $30.64.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

XAU/USD Current price: $2,736.27

• Upbeat United States data helped the US Dollar after its early slide.
• US data stands out on an otherwise quiet Friday.
• XAU/USD turned neutral in the near term, sellers have no interest.

Gold price recovered some ground on Thursday, trading as high as $2,743.15 a troy ounce by the end of the European session. The bright metal shed some ground after the United States (US) unveiled upbeat macroeconomic data, albeit demand for the US Dollar remains subdued.

XAU/USD eased after the US reported that Initial Jobless Claims rose by 227K in the week ended October 18, much better than the 242K expected. Even further,  The flash US S&P Global October Composite PMI rose to 54.3 after printing at 54.0 final in September. Manufacturing activity improved to 47.8 from 47.3 in September, beating the anticipated 47.5. The services index printed at 55.3, up from 55.2 in the previous month and above the 55 forecast.

Still, the US Dollar has been unable to fully recover its upward poise, under pressure since early Asia amid mounting concerns about the outcome of the US presidential election. Meanwhile, Wall Street trades mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) sheds roughly 0.45% for the day, while the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite trade in the green.

Partially explaining USD near-term weakness are Treasury yields, retreating just modestly after reaching fresh multi-week peaks earlier in the week. At the time of writing, the 10-year note offers 4.20%, while the 2-year note yields 4.05%.

The macroeconomic calendar will include on Friday, US September Durable Goods Orders and the October Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Upbeat figures will likely give the USD a boost ahead of the weekly close.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook  

The daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows bulls retain control. Technical indicators resume their advances around weekly highs and after a modest downward correction, enough to erase overbought conditions. At the same time, the pair trades above bullish moving averages, with the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) currently hovering at around $2,670. At the same time, the pair found buyers around the  23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the $2,601.87/$2,756.36 rally at $2,721.20. The next relevant support level is 2,698.66, the 38.2% retracement of the same rally.

The 4-hour chart offers a neutral stance, although sellers are out of the picture. XAU/USD is hovering around a flat 20 SMA, but far above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs. The aforementioned 23.6% Fibonacci retracement provided near-term support during American trading hours, supporting additional gains ahead. Finally, technical indicators hover directionlessly around their midlines, not enough to define the next directional move.

Support levels: 2,721.20 2,708.50, 2,698.60

Resistance levels: 2,732.70 2,743.15 2,758.40

Next Target is 2.52

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.52 was easily exceeded today putting natural gas in line to test resistance around 50% retracement at 2.615. That price area is strengthened by the 20-Day MA (purple), which is currently showing the same price level. The 20-Day line reflected support of the prior uptrend following the September 3 upside breakout of the line. It failed to maintain support once the price of natural gas closed below it on October 11. Now, it presents a potential area of resistance. Plus, once the 50-Day MA is cleared, as occurred today, the next moving average in the sequence becomes an upside target.

61.8% Fibonacci Retracement at 2.71 Looks Likely

Nonetheless, since this week’s swing low was higher than the previous swing low, the current advance has the potential to eventually exceed the 50% retracement and target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.71. An unfilled gap begins at 2.66 and goes to 2.72, filling right around the Fibonacci level. The top down trendline was successfully tested as resistance during the formation of the recent 3.02 swing high. That was essentially the third touch of the top trendline following the beginning of the line starting from the October 2023 peak. This identifies the line as solid resistance and indicates the potential for a sharp rally if it is exceeded to the upside.

Trendlines Mark Near-term Boundaries

Current price action is proceeding between two trendlines, resistance at the top and support at a new internal rising trendline connecting the August swing low with this week’s swing low. The intersection of the lines can tell us something about timing as they cross January 3, 2025. A vertical dotted line has been placed at the intersection. One of the two lines will be broken before then and that should tell us something about the strength or weakness of natural gas.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Experts predict that on October 25, 10, coffee prices in the domestic market are expected to continue to increase in many localities, especially in the Central Highlands.

The strong USD has pushed down the prices of gold and crude oil. However, coffee has recovered after falling too much in the previous days. The market has seen resistance as new crop supplies from Vietnam have not yet joined the transaction.

Dealers said foreign demand for Vietnamese coffee is declining, as many countries have secured coffee supplies from other sources, especially as the EU’s deforestation regulation is expected to take effect by the end of 2024, a delay from the original plan.

Speculators are also reducing net long positions ahead of the harvest in the top robusta producing nation. world, which is expected to ramp up sales next month. The European Union’s (EU) delay in implementing its anti-deforestation law, the EUDR, has reduced the urgency for new deals, further dampening the market.

According to experts, in the world market, Arabica coffee prices are likely to recover strongly, while Robusta tends to continue to fluctuate.

Recorded in the trading session on October 24, 10, domestic coffee prices today decreased sharply by 2024 – 1.600 VND/kg, ranging from 1.900 – 109.400 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 109.700 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong 109.700 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in the province Gia Lai (Chu Prong) is 109.600 VND, down 1.800 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 109.500 VND/kg; In the province Kon Tum at the price of 109.600 VND/kg, down 1.800 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of 109.700 VND/kg, down 1.900 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 109.400 VND/kg, down 1.600 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (April 24) in the province Dak LakIn Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 109.600 VND/kg, down 1.800 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same price of 109.700 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on September 24, 10, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 11 USD/ton, down 2024 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 24, 10: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 1 is 2025 USD/ton, down 4.425 USD; Delivery term in January 78 is 3 USD/ton, down 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.335 is 70 USD/ton, down 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 24, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 p.m. on September 24, 10 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 242.55 cents/lb.

Specifically, the delivery term in December 12 is 2024 cents/lb; down 247.65 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. March 4.70 delivery is 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb; Delivery period in May 246.50 is 4.55 cents/lb, down 5 cents/lb and delivery period in July 2025 is 245.00 cents/lb, down 4.55 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 24, 10. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on October 24, 10 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 301.65 is 0.66 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 302.15 USD/ton, up 0.80% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 305.90%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

The 2023-2024 crop year ended with a supply-demand balance tilted towards a surplus of 1 million bags. However, the 2024-2025 coffee output is forecast to be heavily impacted by extreme weather factors. Therefore, coffee prices in the third quarter are expected to remain high, double that of the same period last year.

Industry insiders believe that coffee prices in the fourth quarter may be adjusted down due to additional supply from major coffee growing countries, including Vietnam.

*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price forecast for both 2024 and 2025.

According to that STEO, the EIA now sees the WTI spot price averaging $76.91 per barrel this year and $73.13 per barrel in 2025. The EIA’s previous STEO, which was released in September, projected that the WTI spot price would average $78.80 per barrel in 2024 and $79.63 per barrel in 2025. Both STEOs put the 2023 WTI spot price average at $77.58 per barrel.

In its latest STEO, the EIA forecast that the WTI spot price would come in at $71.97 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $73.67 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $74.50 per barrel in the second quarter, $73.17 per barrel in the third quarter, and $71.22 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

The EIA’s September STEO projected that the WTI spot price would average $77.64 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $79.02 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $80.50 per barrel across the second and third quarters of next year, and $78.50 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025.

A report sent to Rigzone by Standard Chartered Bank Head of Commodities Research Paul Horsnell late Tuesday revealed that the company is projecting that the NYMEX WTI basis nearby future crude oil price will average $84 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year, $86 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025, $89 per barrel in the second quarter, $92 per barrel in the third quarter, and $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

A research note sent to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Research team last week showed that J.P. Morgan expects the WTI crude price to average $76 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $78 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $73 per barrel in the second quarter, $69 per barrel in the third quarter, and $65 per barrel in the fourth quarter.

Executives from oil and gas firms revealed where they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at various points in the future as part of the third quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

The average response executives from 134 oil and gas firms gave when asked what they expect the WTI crude oil price to be at the end of 2024 was $72.66 per barrel, the survey showed. When asked where they expect WTI prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years, executives from 119 oil and gas firms gave a mean response of $73 per barrel for the six month mark, $76 per barrel for the year mark, $81 per barrel for the two year mark, and $87 per barrel for the five year mark, the survey outlined.

In a technical analysis of WTI prices sent to Rigzone on Wednesday, Rania Gule, a senior market analyst at XS.com, said, “from a technical perspective, crude oil prices are facing increasing pressures as markets shake off the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East and supply appears to be abundant”.

“To regain momentum, the price needs to surpass the pivotal level at $71.50 with a daily close, which would provide an opportunity to test the level of $75.13, a significant hurdle,” Gule added.

“On the downside, the support level at $67.12 should be monitored; if it is breached, the market could decline to the lowest level of 2024 at $64.75, followed by $64.38,” Gule warned.

In the analysis, Gule stated that, currently, the oil market is undergoing a sideways consolidation phase between $78.00 and $64.00, with the overall outlook leaning towards a neutral to bearish sentiment.

“Momentum indicators suggest a near-term corrective upward move that could reach $75.00 and $78.00 in the medium term, although the price remains below the 200-day simple moving average at $75.37,” Gule added.

To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com