Economists at MUFG believe oil prices remain vulnerable to fresh gains despite Friday’s sharp pullback, warning that disruption to global shipping routes is becoming a bigger driver of the market than the direct loss of crude supply.
The WTI crude price in US Dollars (OIL/USD) traded at $85.88 on Friday after retreating from Thursday’s spike to $92.09, but prices remain almost 23% higher in July following escalating tensions involving Iran, the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest surge in crude prices has been fuelled not only by continued US strikes on Iran but also by growing threats to shipping routes that carry energy supplies around the world.
MUFG says geopolitical risks have broadened well beyond the Middle East.
“Oil climbs as geopolitical risks extend beyond the Middle East.”
The bank notes that Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, tanker incidents near the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Russia’s Black Sea export infrastructure have all combined to increase uncertainty surrounding global energy transportation.
Although the Strait of Hormuz remains open, MUFG says commercial shipping has already been affected.
“Commercial shipping through the waterway has declined sharply.”
According to the bank, several tanker operators have altered routes to avoid the Red Sea, increasing transport costs and reducing the efficiency of global energy flows.
Rather than focusing solely on crude production, MUFG believes investors should pay closer attention to transport infrastructure.
“The widening geographic scope of supply disruptions suggests oil prices are increasingly being driven by global transportation risks.”
Image: Oil price chart in US Dollars – 1 month performance
The chart above highlights the sharp jump in oil prices following renewed attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure, before Friday’s partial correction.
The bank argues that attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal on Russia’s Black Sea coast reinforce the risk that supply disruptions are spreading beyond the Gulf region.
Combined with falling tanker traffic through Hormuz, that leaves oil markets increasingly sensitive to any further escalation.
While Friday’s retreat suggests some profit-taking after this week’s rally, MUFG believes downside risks remain limited as long as transport disruptions persist.
“Oil prices are increasingly being driven by global transportation risks, leaving the market vulnerable to further upside if geopolitical tensions persist.”
The bank believes a sustained disruption to shipping through either the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea would continue to tighten physical markets, even if headline crude production remains relatively stable.
Image: Price of oil in USD – a 1 year chart
The one-year chart shows the extraordinary volatility in oil prices during 2026, with July’s rally reversing much of June’s sharp decline as geopolitical risks returned to dominate trading.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate held near 1.3325 on Friday, having retreated more than two cents from July’s high around 1.3558.
GBP/USD is still around 0.6% higher this month, but Sterling has struggled to respond to a stronger run of UK economic data.
Over the past year, the pair has traded between approximately 1.3010 and 1.3858.
Scotiabank noted that June retail sales were far stronger than expected, while the preliminary July business surveys also surprised positively.
The manufacturing PMI rose to 52.8, signalling a solid expansion, while the services index recovered from contraction territory to 51.8.
Despite the upbeat figures, the bank said “market participants are clearly not responding to fundamentals”, with political uncertainty and concerns over the UK’s fiscal position continuing to weigh on the Pound.
Attention now turns to next Thursday’s Bank of England meeting. Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but Scotiabank anticipates a hawkish hold alongside updated economic forecasts.
Markets currently price around 16 basis points of tightening by September and 32 basis points by November.
Pound Sterling could gain if policymakers strengthen the case for a rate rise at the following meeting.
The options market is sending a more cautious signal, however, with demand increasing for protection against renewed GBP weakness.
Scotiabank linked the shift to geopolitical risks and domestic political concerns, both of which have pushed gilt yields higher.
The bank’s technical outlook remains neutral.
GBP/USD has slipped below the support previously expected near 1.3350, leaving 1.3300 as the immediate level to watch.
Stronger support is located at 1.3150, with resistance around 1.3550.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold prices are holding a bearish bias as of mid-March 2025, with the XAU/USD pair trading under pressure ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming monetary policy decision. The precious metal remains constrained by a strengthening U.S. dollar and rising bond yields, which continue to diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Technical Outlook Remains Weak for XAU/USD
From a technical perspective, gold has failed to reclaim key resistance levels near $2,150 per ounce, with sellers maintaining control below the 50-day moving average. The daily chart shows a series of lower highs since late February, suggesting that momentum has shifted in favor of bears. Immediate support lies at the $2,080 region, a break of which could open the door toward the $2,020 area.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe has dipped below 45, indicating bearish momentum without being oversold. This leaves room for further downside before the asset enters technically oversold territory. Traders are watching for a decisive close below $2,080 to confirm the next leg lower.
Macro Pressures Intensify Ahead of Fed Decision
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its March 2025 meeting, but the focus will be on the accompanying dot plot and Chair Jerome Powell’s commentary. Persistent inflation data in recent months has reduced expectations for near-term rate cuts, a scenario that typically weighs on gold prices.
Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which offers no yield. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed to a three-month high, further pressuring XAU/USD. Market pricing currently reflects only a 30% probability of a rate cut by June 2025, down from over 60% at the start of the year.
Why This Matters for Gold Investors
For physical gold holders and ETF investors, the current environment suggests a cautious approach. The bearish bias does not guarantee a sustained selloff, but it does indicate that the path of least resistance is lower in the near term. Safe-haven demand remains a supportive factor amid geopolitical uncertainties, but it has been insufficient to overcome macro headwinds.
Investors should monitor the Fed’s language on inflation and the economic outlook closely. A hawkish surprise could accelerate gold’s decline, while any dovish signals may trigger a short-term relief rally. The $2,080 support level will be the key line in the sand for traders this week.
Conclusion
Gold retains a bearish bias as of mid-March 2025, with technical indicators and macro factors aligning against the precious metal. The upcoming Federal Reserve decision represents the most significant near-term catalyst. A break below $2,080 would likely confirm further downside, while a hawkish Fed outcome could reinforce the current trend. Investors should remain focused on the central bank’s forward guidance for clearer direction.
FAQs
Q1: Why is gold price bearish heading into the Fed week? Gold is under pressure due to a stronger U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. These factors collectively reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
Q2: What is the key support level for XAU/USD right now? The immediate support level is near $2,080 per ounce. A decisive break below this level could open the door toward the $2,020 region.
Q3: How could the Fed decision affect gold prices? A hawkish Fed stance, signaling delayed rate cuts, would likely pressure gold further. Conversely, any dovish signals could trigger a short-term rally. The dot plot and Powell’s commentary will be critical.
Rabobank expects renewed pressure on Pound exchange rates as concerns over Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s spending plans unsettle the gilt market.
The British Pound concluded this trading week facing a difficult combination of political uncertainty, elevated UK bond yields and doubts over how the new government intends to fund its policy agenda.
UK economists at Rabobank say the initial market response to Burnham’s cabinet and early policy announcements has been notably cautious.
The UK 10-year gilt yield has moved above 5.0%, while Pound Sterling has ranked as the weakest G10 currency over the latest one-day period.
Although the appointment of an experienced Chancellor has offered some reassurance, the bank warns that uncertainty surrounding the government’s fiscal strategy could keep both gilts and the Pound under pressure.
Rabobank analysts expect EUR/GBP to rise to 0.8650 over the next three months and sees scope for GBP/USD to fall back towards 1.3200.
At current rates, those forecasts imply a weaker Pound against both the Euro and the US Dollar.
Rabobank Warns Burnham’s Honeymoon Could Be Brief
Rabobank says the appointment of Healey as Chancellor is a stabilising factor because the country’s finances have been placed in the hands of an experienced politician with previous Treasury exposure and respect across Parliament.
However, the larger question is how Burnham plans to finance his agenda.
The Prime Minister has said he intends to use “flexibility” within the fiscal rules, which Rabobank says could point towards placing some infrastructure-related debt on the balance sheets of public financial institutions.
Although such borrowing might sit outside the most closely watched fiscal measures, it would still need to be absorbed by the bond market.
“The market will be wary about whether this constitutes ‘back door’ funding,” Rabobank says.
The government’s first cost-of-living measure is a reduction in VAT on household electricity bills from October.
Officials have indicated that the measure will be funded by cancelling the previous government’s digital identity programme, although reports have raised doubts over whether that scheme was fully funded in the first place.
Rabobank notes that use of greater flexibility within the fiscal rules could potentially mobilise an additional £16 billion for infrastructure projects over the remainder of the decade.
Infrastructure investment could improve productivity in parts of the UK outside London and the South East, but those benefits may take years to materialise.
Burnam, by contrast, faces a general election in less than three years.
That leaves the government under pressure to deliver visible improvements quickly, increasing the risk that spending commitments expand before the economic benefits become apparent.
“The market is now bracing itself for a list of further announcements,” Rabobank says.
“This suggests that funding issues will remain at the fore of the market’s mind and hints that Burnham’s honeymoon may be short-lived.”
Gilt Market Particularly Sensitive
The latest UK borrowing figures were slightly better than expected for June, but borrowing over the first three months of the fiscal year remains above projections from the Office for Budget Responsibility.
At an early stage of the financial year, that overshoot might ordinarily attract limited attention.
Rabobank argues that the political backdrop makes investors more sensitive than usual.
Burnham is associated with the softer left of the Labour Party and has said he wants government to become less reliant on what he described as the “imperial” Treasury.
Against this backdrop, the bond market is likely to demand clear reassurance that new spending plans will remain compatible with the fiscal rules.
Rabobank also highlights structural vulnerabilities in the UK economy.
The country has a low household savings ratio and a substantial current-account deficit, increasing its dependence on overseas capital.
These characteristics can amplify market reactions when confidence deteriorates.
“The UK may not have the largest debt-to-GDP ratio in the developed world, but arguably it has one of the most sensitive debt markets,” Rabobank says.
Lower BoE Expectations Are Another Pound Risk
The reduction in VAT on household electricity bills should mechanically lower inflation.
Rabobank also expects headline UK CPI inflation to ease to 2.7% year on year, offering some short-term reassurance to the gilt market.
The inflation outlook remains complicated by higher spot energy prices following the escalation in the US-Iran conflict, but Rabobank believes current Bank of England pricing is too aggressive.
Markets are pricing approximately 43 basis points of BoE tightening over the next six months.
Rabobank expects the central bank to avoid raising rates this year.
“On our view, this is overdone and a reduction in market expectations for BoE policy tightening is another headwind for the pound,” the bank says.
This is important because elevated UK interest-rate expectations have provided Sterling with some protection against fiscal and political concerns.
Were investors to remove those expected rate increases, the Pound would lose part of its yield advantage at the same time as the gilt market remains uneasy about government borrowing.
Image: Exchange Rates UK Research polling shows GBP/USD median bank forecast chart showing the live rate near 1.3325, a Q3 median near 1.32 and the longer-term forecast path
GBP/USD Forecast: 1.3200 Comes Back Into View
GBP/USD ended the latest session around 1.3325, recording a modest daily gain after Thursday’s 0.47% decline.
The pair has nevertheless fallen by more than two cents from the 15 July close near 1.3540 and remains well below July’s high of 1.3558.
The short-term chart shows Sterling attempting to stabilise around 1.3320 after repeated failures to sustain advances above 1.3340.
GBP/USD is trading close to the 20-period moving average at 1.3327 and session VWAP near 1.3323.
That positioning suggests the pair is currently balanced around its immediate fair-value area rather than developing a strong recovery.
The 200-period moving average near 1.3340 remains the more important overhead barrier.
A recent rebound failed close to that level, confirming the 1.3340-1.3350 region as the first substantial resistance zone.
RSI has recovered to approximately 48 from below 40, showing that downside momentum has eased.
However, the indicator remains below 50 and does not yet signal that buyers have regained control.
Initial support is located around 1.3310, followed by 1.3290.
Rabobank’s 1.3200 objective would come into clearer view following a break below these levels, while July’s low at 1.3221 represents a significant intermediate support area.
On the upside, a sustained move above 1.3340 would reduce immediate downside pressure, although GBP/USD would still need to recover through 1.3400 to suggest the broader July correction has ended.
Image: GBP/USD 15-minute chart with 1.3310 support, 1.3340 resistance and Rabobank’s 1.3200 forecast marked
The median bank forecast path also points to near-term weakness before a later recovery.
The Q3 2026 median projection is close to 1.3200, broadly matching Rabobank’s three-month forecast, while the consensus path then rises towards 1.35 in early 2027 and approximately 1.38 by the end of that year.
Rabobank’s view is therefore consistent with the wider consensus in anticipating near-term pressure, although it does not rule out a longer-term recovery.
Image: EUR/GBP survey poll forecasts July 2026
EUR/GBP Forecast: Rabobank Targets 0.8650
EUR/GBP closed around 0.8534 after falling 0.14% in the latest session.
The cross has recovered from July’s low near 0.8455, but remains almost 1% lower for the month and below the July opening level near 0.8614.
The 15-minute chart shows that EUR/GBP has surrendered part of its recent rebound after failing above 0.8550.
The cross is trading close to its 20-period moving average near 0.8533, but remains below session VWAP around 0.8541 and beneath the 200-period moving average near 0.8539.
This leaves the immediate technical picture mixed.
The latest recovery from below 0.8530 shows that selling pressure has moderated, while RSI near 46 has moved above its signal line.
However, the cross remains below the neutral 50 level and has yet to overcome the main intraday resistance cluster.
Initial resistance is located around 0.8539-0.8542, followed by 0.8547 and the recent highs around 0.8550-0.8555.
A break through that area would strengthen the case for a return towards 0.8600.
Rabobank’s 0.8650 forecast lies above the current technical range and would require a more decisive deterioration in Sterling sentiment.
On the downside, support is located around 0.8530, followed by 0.8525.
A break below these levels would weaken the immediate recovery and raise the risk of a renewed move towards 0.8500.
Image: EUR/GBP 15-minute chart with 0.8530 support, 0.8550 resistance
The wider bank consensus also leans towards a higher EUR/GBP rate over the coming quarters.
The median forecast stands close to 0.8700 from the third quarter of 2026 through early 2028, before easing towards 0.8600 and then 0.8450 by the end of 2028.
Rabobank’s 0.8650 target is therefore slightly below the near-term consensus median but still implies a meaningful Sterling decline from current levels.
Pound Sterling: Rabobank’s forecasts leave GBP exposed on two fronts
Against the Euro, the bank expects EUR/GBP to rise towards 0.8650 as investors question the government’s fiscal plans and reassess the likelihood of Bank of England tightening.
Against the Dollar, it sees GBP/USD falling towards 1.3200 as political uncertainty, gilt-market sensitivity and lower UK rate expectations weigh on the Pound.
The technical charts show that neither move has yet been fully confirmed.
GBP/USD is attempting to stabilise around 1.3320, while EUR/GBP remains below resistance around 0.8550.
However, the fundamental risks identified by Rabobank remain unresolved.
A reduction in expected BoE tightening would remove an important source of Sterling support, while further spending announcements without a convincing funding plan could renew pressure on gilts.
The base case is therefore for Pound Sterling to remain vulnerable, with a GBP/USD break below 1.3290 strengthening the path towards 1.3200 and an EUR/GBP move above 0.8550 opening the way towards Rabobank’s 0.8650 target.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) recovered ground on [current trading date], snapping a recent losing streak as the US Dollar eased against a basket of major currencies. The rebound comes after a period of selling pressure that pushed the white metal to multi-week lows, with traders now assessing whether the move marks a temporary correction or the start of a more sustained uptrend.
What is driving the silver price recovery?
The primary catalyst for the silver rebound is a softening of the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped lower on [current trading date], retreating from recent highs as market participants digested mixed economic data and adjusted expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. A weaker dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities like silver more attractive to holders of other currencies, typically providing a tailwind for prices.
Additionally, a slight dip in US Treasury yields reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver. The metal has also found some support from renewed safe-haven demand amid lingering geopolitical uncertainties, though gains have been capped by a generally cautious risk appetite in broader financial markets.
Silver technical outlook and key levels
From a technical perspective, XAG/USD is attempting to build on its recovery after finding buying interest near the $[support level] area. The immediate resistance level to watch is around $[resistance level], a zone that previously acted as support. A decisive break above this level could open the door for a test of the next resistance band near $[next resistance level].
On the downside, the recent low near $[support level] remains the key support to defend. A break below this level would negate the current recovery attempt and expose the next support zone near $[next support level]. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the oversold threshold, suggesting that selling pressure may be exhausted in the near term, but a clear directional catalyst is still lacking.
What this means for precious metals investors
The current price action in silver underscores the metal’s sensitivity to US Dollar dynamics and interest rate expectations. For traders, the focus remains on upcoming US economic data releases, particularly inflation figures and employment reports, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s policy path. A more dovish Fed outlook would likely weaken the dollar further, providing additional support for silver and gold.
However, silver’s dual nature as both a precious metal and an industrial metal adds complexity to its outlook. Concerns about global industrial demand, particularly from China, could limit upside potential even if the dollar weakens. Investors should monitor industrial production data and manufacturing PMIs for signals on demand trends.
Conclusion
The silver price recovery is primarily a function of short-term US Dollar weakness, offering some relief after recent losses. While technical indicators suggest the potential for further gains, the sustainability of the move depends on incoming economic data and shifts in Federal Reserve policy expectations. Traders should remain cautious and watch for a confirmed break above key resistance levels before committing to a bullish stance.
FAQs
Q1: Why does silver price move inversely to the US Dollar? Silver is priced in US Dollars. When the dollar weakens, it takes fewer units of other currencies to buy the same amount of silver, increasing demand and pushing prices higher. Conversely, a stronger dollar makes silver more expensive for foreign buyers, typically weighing on prices.
Q2: What are the key support and resistance levels for XAG/USD right now? As of [current trading date], immediate support is near $[support level], with the next key support at $[next support level]. On the upside, resistance is seen at $[resistance level], followed by $[next resistance level]. These levels are dynamic and can shift with market conditions.
Q3: How does Federal Reserve policy affect silver prices? Federal Reserve interest rate decisions impact the US Dollar and Treasury yields. Higher rates tend to strengthen the dollar and increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding silver, which is bearish. Expectations of rate cuts or a pause in tightening typically support silver prices by weakening the dollar and lowering yields.
The US Dollar to Yen exchange rate is trading around 163.85 after reaching a July high near 163.98, its strongest level since 1986. The pair is up around 0.75% this month and has risen from roughly 147 in August 2025.
Scotiabank says the Yen is showing tentative signs of stabilisation, although it continues to underperform most other G10 currencies.
The latest pause has been driven more by softness in the broader US Dollar than by Japanese official commentary.
Finance Minister Katayama has continued to warn of “bold action” to counter excessive currency moves, but Scotiabank notes that intervention threats have produced little meaningful reaction in the Yen.
Attention now turns to the Bank of Japan’s July 31 meeting. Markets are pricing almost no chance of an immediate rate move and only around 10 basis points of tightening by September.
Scotiabank believes this leaves scope for a hawkish surprise if policymakers signal that the tightening cycle could proceed faster than investors currently expect.
According to the bank, “a hawkish hold next week could deliver an important surprise and deliver fundamentally-driven yen strength.”
Until then, Scotiabank sees little meaningful technical resistance for USD/JPY as the pair continues to trade at fresh multi-decade highs.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
ING’s forecast for EUR/USD to retreat towards 1.1380 has already been realised, with the pair now testing its lowest levels of July as higher energy prices support the US Dollar.
The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate traded close to 1.1371 late on Friday, extending its retreat from the mid-July peak near 1.1470.
EUR/USD fell 0.30% on Thursday and has now declined in seven of the past eight completed sessions.
The pair is also down by around 0.3% for July, having traded between 1.1362 and 1.1481 during the month.
ING had expected EUR/USD to drift back towards 1.1380 as elevated energy prices continued to favour the Dollar.
That objective has now been reached and modestly exceeded, leaving the market focused on whether support around 1.1360 can prevent a deeper Euro decline.
ING Sees US Dollar Support from Higher Energy Prices
ING describes a global investment environment in which equity-market sentiment remains relatively resilient even as higher energy prices push interest rates upwards.
According to the bank, investors are favouring currencies that provide both attractive yields and some protection against a further escalation in energy costs.
“The dollar and the Norwegian krone remain the go-to currencies here,” says Chris Turner, ING’s Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for the UK and Central and Eastern Europe.
The Dollar’s yield advantage and the relative resilience of the US economy leave it better positioned than lower-yielding currencies during a period of elevated oil and gas prices.
ING expects the Dollar Index to remain supported within its 100.35-101.80 range and continues to favour the upside over the short term.
Higher energy prices are particularly relevant for EUR/USD because the Eurozone is a major net energy importer.
An extended increase in oil and natural gas costs can weaken the region’s terms of trade, squeeze household spending and raise costs for European businesses, while simultaneously supporting the Dollar through higher US yields and safe-haven demand.
Image: EUR/USD 15-minute technical chart showing support around 1.1360 and resistance between 1.1380 and 1.1392
EUR/USD Reaches ING’s 1.1380 Target
Analysts at ING noted that EUR/USD had initially held up relatively well despite the rebound in energy prices and a rise in European natural gas towards €60 per megawatt hour.
Interest-rate expectations helped explain that resilience.
Higher energy costs encouraged investors to price a more aggressive tightening response from the European Central Bank than from the Federal Reserve, temporarily supporting Eurozone yields and the single currency.
However, ING questioned how much further ECB expectations could move in a hawkish direction.
“It is hard to see the market pricing in even higher ECB rates, regardless of the language delivered at tomorrow’s ECB meeting and press conference,” says Turner.
“Barring a near-term move towards another cease-fire between the US and Iran, our bias remains for EUR/USD to drift back to 1.1380.”
That forecast has proved accurate, with EUR/USD falling through 1.1380 and approaching July’s low around 1.1362.
The question now is whether the retreat represents the completion of the corrective move or the beginning of a more sustained decline.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook Remains Fragile
The short-term chart continues to favour the US Dollar, although the Euro is attempting to stabilise near the bottom of its recent range.
EUR/USD trades below its 20-period moving average near 1.1372 and beneath session VWAP around 1.1381.
The pair is also well below the 200-period moving average near 1.1392, confirming that the immediate intraday trend remains bearish.
Repeated failures between 1.1390 and 1.1400 have established this region as significant resistance. The Euro would need to recover above this area to suggest that the sequence of lower short-term highs has been broken.
RSI has recovered to approximately 44 after previously approaching oversold territory.
The indicator remains below the neutral 50 level, showing that bearish momentum is still present, but the recovery from its lows suggests selling pressure is no longer accelerating.
This is consistent with a market consolidating after a decline rather than one already embarking on a convincing rebound.
Initial resistance is located around 1.1374, followed by ING’s former target at 1.1380.
A recovery above 1.1380 would allow EUR/USD to challenge 1.1387 and the 200-period moving average close to 1.1392.
The 1.1400 area then represents the more important technical barrier. A sustained break above it would weaken the immediate bearish case and suggest the pair is returning to a broader range.
On the downside, July’s low at 1.1362 is the key near-term support.
A decisive break beneath that level would confirm that the decline has extended beyond ING’s original objective and expose the lower portion of June’s range.
Energy Market Remains the Key Risk
ING’s EUR/USD assessment was conditional on the geopolitical and energy-market backdrop.
A ceasefire or meaningful de-escalation between the US and Iran would reduce the energy-price premium supporting the Dollar and could allow the Euro to recover.
The opposite scenario presents the larger downside risk.
A renewed rise in oil or European gas prices would probably reinforce demand for the Dollar while increasing concerns over the Eurozone growth outlook.
The policy implications are also complicated.
Higher energy prices can raise headline inflation and encourage expectations of tighter ECB policy, but they simultaneously weaken real incomes and economic activity.
ING’s argument is that the market has limited capacity to price substantially more ECB tightening, reducing the potential support available to the Euro from interest-rate expectations.
The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, benefits from a stronger US growth backdrop and a currency that tends to attract demand when geopolitical uncertainty increases.
EUR/USD Technical Forecast
ING’s move towards 1.1380 has been completed, but the short-term technical picture does not yet provide a convincing signal that the decline is over.
EUR/USD remains below its main intraday moving averages and continues to trade near the bottom of July’s range.
The 1.1362 monthly low is now the immediate dividing line.
Holding above this level could produce a corrective recovery towards 1.1380 and potentially 1.1390, particularly if energy prices ease or geopolitical tensions subside.
A break below 1.1362 would instead strengthen the Dollar’s advantage and leave EUR/USD vulnerable to a deeper extension lower.
The base case is therefore for the Euro to remain under pressure while below 1.1390-1.1400, with energy prices and developments in the Gulf determining whether the pair stabilises or resumes its decline.
Copper price failed in breaching the barrier at $6.5100, forcing it to delay the bullish trend and providing a clear negative rebound, to settle near $6.2500, the current decline will not affect the chances of renewing the bullish trend, depending on the stability of the extra support at $6.1000, to wait for gathering positive momentum and begin forming bullish waves, to repeat the pressure on the mentioned barrier.
While the decline below the additional support and providing negative close will increase the strength of the bearish corrective track, to expect suffering several losses by reaching $5.9200 and $5.8100.
The expected trading range for today is between $6.1500 and $6.5000
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
Copper price failed in breaching the barrier at $6.5100, forcing it to delay the bullish trend and providing a clear negative rebound, to settle near $6.2500, the current decline will not affect the chances of renewing the bullish trend, depending on the stability of the extra support at $6.1000, to wait for gathering positive momentum and begin forming bullish waves, to repeat the pressure on the mentioned barrier.
While the decline below the additional support and providing negative close will increase the strength of the bearish corrective track, to expect suffering several losses by reaching $5.9200 and $5.8100.
The expected trading range for today is between $6.1500 and $6.5000
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
