From next week, fines for unauthorised absences will go up by as much as £40.

Under the new system, the cost of a penalty charge notice will rise from £60 to £80 if paid within 21 days, and from £120 to £160 if paid within 28 days. 

This marks the first increases since the system was introduced in 2013. 

So, when do parents get fined? 

Children are only allowed to miss school if they are unwell, or they have been given permission from the school in advance. 

Parents can make an absence request to take their children out of school, but there needs to be “exceptional circumstances” and the headteacher needs to authorise it. 

Currently, it’s the responsibility of the local authority to decide when to issue fines, meaning the process varies from council to council.

But, under the new rules which were created by the Conservative government, all schools will be required to consider a fine when a child has missed at least five days of school for unauthorised reasons.

What happens if you keep getting fined? 

If a parent receives a second fine for the same child within any three-year period, this will be charged at the higher rate of £160.

A parent can only receive two fines within any three-year period, and once this has been met, other actions can be considered. 

This includes a parenting order or prosecution. 

Parents who are prosecuted and attend court because their child hasn’t been attending school, can be fined up to £2,500.

Where is the money spent?

Government guidance states any money collected from fines should be used by the local authority to cover the costs of administering the system. 

Any surplus after that should be spent on “attendance support”. 

Any cash remaining at the end of the year must be paid to the education secretary.

A Department for Education spokesperson said: “High and rising school standards are at the heart of our mission to break down barriers to opportunity and give every child the best start in life. Strong foundations of learning are grounded in attendance in the classroom.

“Tackling the root causes of absence is a major priority for the government. 

“Our support-first approach outlined in our guidance is designed to help parents to meet their responsibility to ensure their child attends school.

“However, in some cases, including term-time holidays, it may be necessary to issue penalty notices.” 

• The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Market, or US Oil, has been rather noisy over the last couple of days, but on Thursday we are trying to bounce from the 50-day EMA.
• All things being equal, we are essentially in the middle of a larger consolidation area near the $72 level at the bottom and the $84 level on the top.
• As we are hanging around in the sideways range, the question then becomes what happens next?

It’ll be a difficult market to trade in because I think at this point in time, you have a lot of external factors going on as well. For example, the tension in the Middle East will of course continue to work to support the price of crude oil, but at the same time, you also have to worry about the economy slowing down and therefore driving down demand.

End of the Cycle?

We are getting towards the end of summer, which is the high season for crude oil demand. So really at this point in time, you would have to say that this has been a less than stellar summer. It hasn’t exactly been horrible. It just hasn’t been overly exciting for those bullish on crude oil. At this point in time, I think if you could break above the $80 level, then we could see the market go looking to the $84 level.

If we break down below the $77 level, the $75 level will be targeted. And then again, we could test the $72 level underneath there. The stochastic oscillator is overbought and crossing over to show signs of weakness. So, while I don’t necessarily place a trade based on that alone, it does suggest that perhaps it is going to be a little bit sluggish. In general, we have a handful of levels that we need to be watching and those will tell us where the market is more likely than not going to go.

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• Gold price trades flat around $2,455 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
• US July Retail Sales beat expectations, rising 1.0% MoM; Initials Jobless Claims fell 7K to 227K last week.
• The escalating geopolitical risks in the Middle East might cap the Gold’s downside. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) flat lines near $2,455 during the early Asian session on Friday. The yellow metal seesaws between gains and losses amid the consolidation of the US Dollar (USD). Traders will focus on the preliminary of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August, along with the Building Permits and Housing Starts. 

Following the release of encouraging employment-related data and strong retail sales, speculative interest in the world’s biggest economy decreased, easing fears about a potential recession. However, traders still see the US Federal Reserve (Fed) start easing the policy in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the markets are now pricing in a nearly 80% chance of a September rate cut and expect 200 basis points (bps) of reduction in the next 12 months, though that will depend on incoming data.

Data released by the US Census Bureau on Thursday showed that Retail Sales in the United States rose by 1.0% MoM in July, compared to a decline of 0.2% in June. This figure surpassed the estimation of a 0.3 increase. Meanwhile, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 10 arrived at 227K, better than the expectation of 235K and down from the previous week of 234K. The recent stronger job data and upbeat Retail Sales have strengthened the USD broadly and weighed on the precious metal. 

Nonetheless, the elevated geopolitical risks in the Middle East might provide some support to Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset. Gaza’s Health Ministry says more than 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli attacks since October 7, with many more buried under rubble and threatened by illness, according to local news source Aljazeera. 

• Silver price drops from intraday high of $28.44 after resilient US Retail Sales data for July.
• Back-to-back decline in US jobless claims suggest that labor market conditions are not as worse as it was anticipated.
• Strong US Retail Sales have prompted a strong recovery in the US Dollar and bond yields.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gives up some of its intraday gains in Thursday’s New York session after the release of the resilient United States (US) Retail Sales data for July and lower-than-expected number of individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time in the week ending August 9.

The white metal struggles to hold the crucial support of $28.00 as upbeat US data has boosted the US Dollar (USD) and bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, bounces back above 103.00. 10-year US Treasury yields soar to near 3.96%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets weigh on non-yielding assets, such as Silver, by increasing the opportunity cost of holding investment in them.

The Retail Sales, a key measure of consumer spending, returned to expansion and rose at a robust pace of 1% from the estimates of 0.3%. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims came in in lower at 227K than estimates of 235K and the prior release of 234K, upwardly revised from 233K. This is the second consecutive time when number of jobless claims have come in lower than expectations, suggesting that labor market conditions are not as bad as they were indicated by the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.

Meanwhile, the near-term outlook of the Silver price remains firm as investors remain confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin reducing interest rates from the September meeting. However, upbeat data have dashed hopes the Fed will adopt an aggressive policy-easing stance.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price bounced back after a negative divergence formation on a four-hour timeframe, which shapes when the momentum oscillator refuses to make lower lows, while the asset continues that formation. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounded from 24.00 without hitting downside below previous low of 20.00.

However, the above-mentioned formation would trigger if the white metal breaks above the immediate swing high plotted from the August 2 high of $29.23.

The asset stays above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $27.80, suggesting that the near-term trend has leaned on the upside.

The 14-period RSI has bounced back to near 60.00 and a decisive break above the same will trigger the upside momentum.

Silver four-hour chart

With the Israel Hamas conflict continuing to mount and even reports of the United States preparing to ship $750 million worth of bombs to Saudi Arabia, oil prices are trending lower due to Tuesday’s IEA report that forecast lower oil demand growth in 2025 than it was previously predicting. 

The IEA didn’t change its 2024 forecast, but the oil markets recoiled at the prospect of smaller oil demand growth next year, rising only 950,000 bpd—just a 30,000 bpd reduction from its previous forecast. 

At 11:46 pm CST, Brent crude was trading down 1.68% at $80.91 per barrel—a drop of $1.38 per barrel on the day. WTI crude was trading down 2 on the day at $78.62 per barrel. For Brent, the price is still $4 above where it was trading this same time last week. 

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The demand growth outlook’s effect on oil prices was undaunted by reports of the United States lifting 2021 restrictions on the sale of bombs to Saudi Arabia and its subsequent shipment of more than $750 million worth of bombs to Saudi Arabia—a move that may improve relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, but could heat up tensions in the Middle East, particularly the war Saudi Arabia against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Biden Administration has enjoyed a strained relationship with Saudi Arabia after The U.S. president shunned the Saudi royals due to its assassination of journalist and dissident Jamal Khashoggi.

Those deliveries of the bombs are likely to start in several months. Saudi Arabia’s military renewed its strikes on Houthi targets just yesterday, pro-Iranian media reported on Monday, with Saudi drones striking the Al-Ghor area and Kamaran Island near the port of Hodeida.

By Julianne Geiger

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