The (silver) price surged in its last intraday trading, breaching the critical resistance level of $42.90, which represents our suggested target in our previous forecast, supported by its continuous trading above EMA50 and under full dominance for the main bullish trend on the short-term trading, and its trading alongside supportive trendline for this track, on the other hand, we notice the emergence of negative overlapping signals on the relative strength indicators, after reaching overbought levels, which might reduce the upcoming gains.
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The GBPJPY pair provided new negative close in Friday’s trading below 200.45 level barrier, which forces it to form some bearish correctional trading, to settle near 199.55.
By the above image, we notice stochastic reach below 50 level, to provide the extra negative momentum, to confirm the dominance of the bearish correctional bias, which makes us keep the bearish suggestion until reaching the negative station near 198.60 and 197.80.
The expected trading range for today is between 198.60 and 200.40
The (Brent) price rose in its last intraday trading, in an attempt to recover some previous losses, and attempts to offload its clear oversold conditions on the relative strength indicators, especially with the emergence of the positive signals from there, amid the dominance of the main bearish trend on the short-term basis, with the continuation of the negative pressure that comes from its trading below EMA50, intensifying the negative pressure around the price, and reduces the chances of its recovery on the near-term basis.
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The EURJPY pair is forced to form bearish correction wave after hitting the target at 174.45, affected by stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level, noticing its fluctuation near the breached barrier, forming an extra support at 173.40.
The price success to settle above the current support will provide new chance for forming bullish waves, repeating the pressure on 174.40 level, and surpassing it will make it reach the next target near 175.20, while its surrender to the negative pressures by its move below the support will force it to delay the bullish attack, forming more of the correctional trading, to reach 172.80 initially, reaching the support of the bullish channel at 171.35.
The expected trading range for today is between 173.40 and 175.20
Silver challenges a multi-month-old ascending channel resistance at the start of a new week.
A slightly overbought RSI on the daily chart warrants caution before placing fresh bullish bets.
Any corrective slide below $43.00 could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on Friday’s breakout momentum above the $43.00 mark and touches a fresh high since September 2011 at the start of a new week. The white metal trades around the $43.25 area during the Asian session, up 0.35% for the day, flirting with the top end of an ascending channel extending from the April swing low.
The aforementioned channel points to a well-established uptrend and backs the case for a further near-term appreciating move for the XAG/USD. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flashing slightly overbought conditions and makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before placing fresh bullish bets.
Any corrective slide below the $43.00 round figure, however, is more likely to attract fresh buyers near the $42.55 region. This, in turn, should help limit the downside for the XAG/USD near the $42.20-$42.15 region. This is closely followed by the $42.00 mark, below which the commodity could slide to the $41.65 area before eventually dropping to test sub-$41.00 levels.
On the flip side, acceptance above the ascending channel resistance will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and allow the XAG/USD to test the September 2011 swing high, around the $43.40 region. The positive momentum could extend further towards reclaiming the $44.00 round figure en route to the August 2011 peak, around the $44.25 region.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points as expected.
European Central Bank officials delivered mixed messages on future policies.
EUR/USD retreated sharply after hitting fresh 2025 highs, steeper slide on the cards.
The EUR/USD pair peaked at 1.1918, a fresh four-year high on Wednesday, giving up most of its gains and settling at around 1.1750 by the end of the week. Central banks lead the way, with the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision rocking the board and giving fresh impetus to the US Dollar (USD).
Federal Reserve delivers first 2025 rate cut
Whereas such USD strength would be sustainable in time, it depends on the upcoming macroeconomic data. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivered a cautious cut, announcing the reduction of its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) after the September two-day meeting. Even further, the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) showed that Fed officials anticipate two more rate cuts in 2025, confirming the market’s speculation of additional cuts in October and December. However, the same SEP showed policymakers retain the view of just one cut in 2026.
Of course, there was one dissenter, the newly appointed by United States (US) President Donald Trump, Stephen Miran. Miran voted for a 50 bps interest rate cut, and aimed for a 150 bps trim before year-end.
The decision fell short of President Trump’s desire, but pointed in the right direction. Market players were pricing in more than one cut in 2026, and the less dovish delivery ended up benefiting the Greenback after the initial USD sell-off.
Wall Street, however, rallied with the news, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) reaching unexplored territory. Gold price, on the contrary, eased from record highs, all of which reflects mounting optimism.
Chair Jerome Powell made some relevant comments in the press conference that followed the announcement. He said that the overall effect on economic activity of President Trump’s tariffs “remains to be seen,” adding that the lower immigration is below the softening jobs market rather than tariffs. “There’s very little growth, if any, in the supply of workers,” he stated.
Of course, he reiterated that the Fed is not on a preset path. “Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem,” he said, while repeating that monetary policy decisions will be made meeting-by-meeting.
US-China trade relationship returns to the limelight
Meanwhile, US President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, had a call on Friday to discuss the permanence of the TikTok app in the US. Investors hope both leaders also discussed their trade relationship, further softening tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Ahead of the call, Trump noted that he could also grant his giant rival an extension to the trade truce, maintaining financial markets in a good mood ahead of the weekly close. Additional headlines on the matter will likely come in the next few days.
Mixed message from European Central Bank officials
The European Central Bank (ECB) had little to offer these last few days, after announcing its decision to keep interest rates unchanged on September 11. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos noted the central bank needs to follow a “very prudent” approach to monetary policy amid still high uncertainty, but added there was “very positive” news on inflation. Finally, he noted that the present policy stance is appropriate.
ECB Governing Council member Mario Centeno, on the other hand, had a more dovish approach and said that the “next move is still likely to be a rate cut.” He also noted that the central bank cannot tolerate inflation below 2% for too long, a level it’s likely to reach in 2028, according to forecasts. Nevertheless, he still sees inflation risks to the downside.
Data to become more relevant
The positive news from the inflation front that De Guindos mentioned came from the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The final estimate of the August HICP was confirmed at 2% YoY, below the 2.1% previously calculated, while the monthly figure was downwardly revised to 0.1% from a flash estimate of 0.2%.
Other than that, the Eurozone calendar included the German ZEW Survey on Economic Sentiment, which improved in September to 37.3 from the previous 34.7. Economic Sentiment in the bloc was also upbeat, hitting 26.1 from the previous 25.1. Still, the German assessment of the current situation fell to -76.4, worsening from the -68.6 posted in August.
As for the US, the country published August Retail Sales, up 0.6%. The figure beat the 0.2% anticipated by market players while matching the July revised figure, previously calculated at 0.5%.
In the days to come, the macroeconomic calendar will be more active. S&P Global, alongside local banks, will release the preliminary estimate of the September Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for all major economies. The European figures, published by the Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), are expected to show a modest uptick in business activity. US figures, in the meantime, are expected to confirm continued expansion.
The US will publish the final estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Wednesday, expected to confirm an annualized growth of 3.3% in the three months to June.
Finally, the US will release the August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Friday. The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge will come after the release of a not-so-encouraging Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the same month, showing inflationary pressures remain.
Other than that, there will be plenty of central banks’ speakers, which could provide fresh hints on what’s next for monetary policy decisions.
EUR/USD technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the weekly chart for the EUR/USD pair shows that the current candle offers a long upward wick and a very limited body that falls within familiar levels. The bullish case remains supported by moving averages, which keep heading north below the current level. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains its upward slope far above the longer ones, providing relevant mid-term support at around 1.1580. The Momentum indicator, however, aims lower within positive levels, approaching its midline and hinting at easing buying interest. Finally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at around 65, also suggesting buyers paused.
EUR/USD is at the brink of turning even lower according to the daily chart. Moving averages have steadily lost their upward strength, and a flat 20 SMA stands at 1.1710, while an also directionless 100 SMA lies in the 1.1560 region. In the meantime, technical indicators head firmly lower and are about to cross their midlines into negative territory.
Near-term resistance comes at 1.1830, followed by the recent peak in the 1.1920 area. Additional gains expose the 1.2000 figure, with a rally towards the latter quite unlikely in the near term. On the other side of the equation, the 1.1700 mark offers immediate support ahead of the more relevant 1.1590 region. A clear break below the latter would open the door for a more sustained decline.
Economic Indicator
Core Personal Consumption Expenditures – Price Index (YoY)
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on a monthly basis, measures the changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers in the United States (US). The PCE Price Index is also the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The core reading excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures.” Generally, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is bearish.
Gold price trades with mild gains around $3,685 in Monday’s early Asian session.
Signals of monetary policy easing from the Fed and rising geopolitical risks support the Gold price.
Traders brace for the Fedspeak later on Monday for fresh impetus.
The Gold price (XAU/USD) posts a modest gain near $3,685 during the early Asian session on Monday. The yellow metal edges higher as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the interest rates at its September meeting, as widely expected. Traders will take more cues from the Fedspeak later on Monday.
The Fed reduced its benchmark rate by 25 basis points (bps) last week, the first rate cut of 2025. This decision was supported by signs of a softening labor market and concerns about employment risks, despite inflation remaining somewhat elevated. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the rate cut as a “risk-management cut” and stated that future decisions would be made “meeting by meeting,” suggesting a less dovish than expected easing cycle than some investors anticipated. This, in turn, might lift the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price.
Traders will also monitor the developments surrounding geopolitical risks. CNN reported that Russia carried out a major drone and missile attack across the country overnight into Saturday, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Despite diplomatic attempts to resolve the conflict, the war has increased in recent months. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe could boost a traditional safe-haven asset like Gold.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
UBS Group strategists have lifted their dollar-yen forecasts,
now seeing USD/JPY at 143 by the end of 2025
and 140 by the end of 2026,
compared with 130 previously.
The revision reflects rising political uncertainty in Japan, which UBS says has helped keep the Bank of Japan more dovish than markets once expected.
While investors are still pricing in one more BoJ rate hike before January 2026, the yen has not fully benefited from tightening expectations. Strategists pointed to Japan’s strong equity market and lower volatility as additional drags on the currency. UBS said there is little sign of a coordinated move toward a stronger yen, such as a new Plaza Accord, and the pair is more likely to trade toward the lower end of a 140–150 range rather than break below it for long.
On the U.S. side, the bank expects the dollar to remain weak as labor market softness pressures short-term Treasury yields lower.
While long-term fundamentals remain constructive, a late-week rebound in the U.S. Dollar Index to 97.646 and rising Treasury yields (10-year at 4.131%, 30-year at 4.743%) limited upside momentum. These moves raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, though they have not altered the underlying bullish structure.
Gold Price Projections: Wall Street Targets Raised
Citi raised its 3-month gold price forecast to $3800, citing fiscal risks and fragile labor conditions. Deutsche Bank projects an average of $4000, pointing to continued central bank buying and investor demand. In India, physical premiums surged to a 10-month high despite record nominal prices, reflecting robust consumer interest.
Gold Price Forecast: Eyes on PCE Inflation and Sentiment Data
Markets are now focused on this Friday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—Core PCE—and the final September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. July’s core PCE rose to 2.9% year over year, the highest since February. The Fed expects inflation to stay above target through 2026, while sentiment data suggests rising consumer unease about inflation and jobs. If PCE remains elevated and sentiment deteriorates, expectations for further rate cuts may strengthen, supporting gold’s upside.
The US dollar extended its rebound into Friday, forcing the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate back under 1.1750 at the New York open.
While short covering and firmer US data have underpinned the greenback, the euro remains trapped below 1.1800, with traders debating whether support at 1.1750 can hold or if deeper losses toward 1.1700 are on the cards.
EUR/USD Forecasts: Test Support Below 1.1750
The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) found support on dips to 1.1750 on Thursday, but has not been able to regain the 1.1800 level and again dipped to below 1.1750 at the US open.
The dollar has been able to gain net support in global markets with evidence of short covering following the Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
Scotiabank commented; “The outsized reaction to Thursday’s better than expected claims data have also revealed a market that appears vulnerable to a squeeze.”
According to UoB; “Although downward momentum has not increased significantly, EUR could retest the 1.1750 level before a more sustained recovery is likely.
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Scotiabank focussed on potential support; “We look to support around the previously broken descending trend line drawn from the July highs, and would expect it to limit losses below 1.17.”
On the upside UoB added; “if EUR breaks above 1.1825, it would indicate that the current downward pressure has eased.”
ING is still positive on the outlook; “We are sticking to our call for EUR/USD to climb back to the 1.1850 handle in the coming days.”
Markets will continue to digest this week’s Federal Reserve decision and the policy outlook.
As far as the near-term outlook is concerned, markets are pricing in over a 90% chance that there will be a further 25 basis-point cut at the October policy meeting.
RBC Capital Markets expects further dollar losses; “The FOMC has embarked on a new rate cutting cycle, the first and most important of several pillars we are expecting to drive US$ to weaken.”
Credit Agricole, notes the scope for a dollar to recover from over-sold levels; “The Fed did not validate the excessively dovish market expectations at its September meeting, and this helped the USD regain some ground across the board.”
The bank discussed the potential for a more sustained recovery; “The question remains, however, whether the FOMC pushback would be sufficient to help the currency recover on a more sustained basis. We think that this could be the case in part because the market USD-bearish narrative has evolved considerably of late.”
European developments have not had a major impact at this stage.
ING noted developments in France; “Their latest political news isn’t very encouraging, as the new prime minister is facing harsh union opposition to his fiscal plans, and negotiations with the Socialists – who are believed to hold the key to passing the budget – have not yielded good results so far.”
It added; “The risk of further widening in the OAT-Bund spreads remains tangible, but what matters most for the euro is the rate of change in those adjustments, and so far we are not expecting a material FX spillover.”
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