Natural gas price surrendered to the main indicators negativity by providing new bearish pressures on the bullish channel’s support at $3.000 level as appears in the above image, the attempt of 3.520 level to form extra barrier might increase the chances of surrendering to the negative pressures, by breaking the current support, to confirm its move to bearish track by targeting several negative stations that might begin at $2.850 and $2.660.
We notice the continuation of stochastic fluctuation near 20 level, to increase the chances of gathering the required negative momentum to achieve the break then begin targeting the previously suggested negative stations.
The expected trading range for today is between $2.850 and $3.180
Following Wednesday’s sharp decline, EUR/USD continued to edge lower and closed in negative territory on Thursday. The pair stays on the back foot early Friday and trades slightly above 1.1750.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.98%
1.41%
1.63%
0.60%
0.36%
1.36%
0.93%
EUR
-0.98%
0.43%
0.64%
-0.38%
-0.63%
0.37%
-0.05%
GBP
-1.41%
-0.43%
-0.04%
-0.80%
-1.05%
-0.05%
-0.47%
JPY
-1.63%
-0.64%
0.04%
-1.01%
-1.23%
-0.26%
-0.65%
CAD
-0.60%
0.38%
0.80%
1.01%
-0.28%
0.76%
0.33%
AUD
-0.36%
0.63%
1.05%
1.23%
0.28%
1.01%
0.61%
NZD
-1.36%
-0.37%
0.05%
0.26%
-0.76%
-1.01%
-0.42%
CHF
-0.93%
0.05%
0.47%
0.65%
-0.33%
-0.61%
0.42%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) preserved its strength after Wednesday’s impressive rallly that was fuelled by the hawkish tone seen in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) minutes of the January policy meeting. Additionally, the risk-averse market atmosphere helped the USD outperform its rivals as investors reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with reports suggesting that the US could take military action against Iran as early as this weekend.
BBC reported late Thursday that US President Donald Trump said that Iran must make a deal, or “bad things will happen.” Iran told UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that it does not seek war but said that they will not tolerate military aggression. Moreover, Iranian officials reportedly also warned of a decisive response if the US takes military action over the nuclear dispute.
Later in the European session, HCOB Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports from Germany and the Eurozone will be watched closely by market participants. In case PMI figures come in above 50 and reflect ongoing expansion in the private sector’s business activity, the Euro could keep its footing and allow EUR/USD to find support.
In the American trading hours, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish its first estimate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter. Investors expect the US’ GDP to grow at an annural rate 3% in Q4, following the impressive 4.4% growth recorded in Q3. A positive surprise could support the USD and force EUR/USD to extend its weekly slide. Conversely, a disappointing print, at or below 2%, could open the door for a rebound in the pair heading into the weekend.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1761. The 20-, 50-, and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) slope lower and sit above price, underscoring persistent selling pressure. The 200-period SMA edges higher but remains overhead, acting as initial resistance at 1.1782. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stays near 30 (oversold), suggesting that there could be a correction before the resumption of the downtrend.
Measured from the 1.1590 low to the 1.2026 high, the 61.8% retracement aligns as a key technical level at 1.1757. A close beneath would expose the 78.6% retracement at 1.1683 ahead of 1.1600 (static level, round level). On the upside, . The descending trend line from 1.2023 caps rebounds, with resistance seen near 1.1840, and failure to reclaim that barrier would keep rallies short-lived.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Platinum price began receiving bullish momentum due to stochastic rally above 50 level, accompanied by the moving average 55 attempt to form extra support by its stability below the current trading, to begin forming bullish waves and settle near $2090.00.
The attempt of forming extra support at $2020.00 level reinforces the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, to keep our bullish scenario that might target $2165.00 level soon, reaching near $2245.00 barrier.
The expected trading range for today is between $2020.00 and $2165.00
The GBPJPY pair failed to settle above 209.15 barrier, providing mixed trading due to the contradiction between the negative stability and providing bullish momentum by the main indicators, to settle near 208.65.
We expect the trading within tight path that is represented by 209.15 barrier, while 208.20 forms extra support against the current trading, we recommend monitoring the price behavior and waiting for surpassing one of these levels, to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading. Where confirming the breaching will open the way for recording clear gains that might begin at 210.65 and 211.70, while breaking the support and holding below it will force it suffer extra losses that might extend towards 207.05.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.20 and 209.15
Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on its gains registered over the past two days and oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Friday. The white metal currently trades around the $78.25-$78.30 region, nearly unchanged for the day, and remains close to a one-week high, touched on Thursday.
From a technical perspective, this week’s breakout through a one-week-old ascending trend-channel resistance, which coincided with the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), was seen as a key trigger for the XAG/USD bulls. The 100-hour SMA has flattened around $76.32 after a modest rise, and spot prices hold above it to preserve an intraday bullish bias.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits marginally below the Signal line near the zero mark, with a slightly negative histogram that points to subdued momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 55, neutral with a mild upward tilt. Moreover, acceptance above the 100-period SMA underpins the breakout structure.
A turn of the MACD histogram back to positive would reinforce upside follow-through. A firming RSI above 60 would signal strengthening momentum, while a drop beneath 50 would warn of fading impetus. The former descending channel hurdle at $75.58 could act as initial support on pullbacks, while deeper protection aligns with the channel floor near $70.31.
Absent fresh momentum, the XAG/USD could consolidate, but maintaining levels above the moving average would keep the near-term bias upward.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The GBPJPY pair failed to settle above 209.15 barrier, providing mixed trading due to the contradiction between the negative stability and providing bullish momentum by the main indicators, to settle near 208.65.
We expect the trading within tight path that is represented by 209.15 barrier, while 208.20 forms extra support against the current trading, we recommend monitoring the price behavior and waiting for surpassing one of these levels, to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading. Where confirming the breaching will open the way for recording clear gains that might begin at 210.65 and 211.70, while breaking the support and holding below it will force it suffer extra losses that might extend towards 207.05.
The expected trading range for today is between 208.20 and 209.15
Upbeat United States employment figures boosted demand for the Greenback.
The US macroeconomic calendar includes first-tier data on Friday.
XAU/USD extends its consolidative phase around $5,000 with a bearish tilt.
Gold price remains stuck around the $5,000 mark, unable to attract investors despite the market’s mood swings. The bright metal remains afloat despite the US Dollar (USD) strength following hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, showing that, in the January meeting, officials noted that “a two-way description of the path of policy could be supported,” hinting at opening for interest rate hikes, should inflation keep pressing higher.
The Greenback gained additional strength early in the American session on Thursday, following the release of upbeat employment-related data: Initial Jobless Claims rose by 206K in the week ended February 14, much better than the expected 225K. Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved to 16.3 in February ,much better than the 8.5 posted in the previous month. On a negative note, the Goods and Services Trade Balance posted a deficit of $70.3 billion in December, worsening from the $-53 billion posted in November.
Market participants are now waiting for Friday’s data, as the United States (US) will publish the December Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s favorite inflation gauge. The core annual figure is foreseen at 2.9% after posting 2.8% in November, moving further away from the Fed’s goal of 2%.
The US will also publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with annualized growth foreseen at 3%, down from the 4.4% posted in Q3. Finally, S&P Global will release the flash estimates of the February Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs).
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the 4-hour chart shows XAU/USD is neutral, with a modest negative tilt. The pair keeps trading between a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing support at $4,954 and a directionless 100 SMA capping the upside at around the current level. The 200-period SMA, in the meantime, maintains its bullish slope at around $4,860. Meanwhile, technical indicators turned modestly lower but remain just above their midlines.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades just below a mildly bullish 20-day SMA at $5,006.86, while the longer moving averages remain well below the current level, heading firmly north. The Momentum indicator turned higher and advances above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heads nowhere at around 54. A daily close above the 20-day SMA would refocus upside pressure and expose the $5,030 price zone, while failure to hold above the $4,950 should open the door for a steeper decline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Investment bank says pound’s slide intact, but others warn of resilience as UK inflation will remain above target.
Analysts at Nomura reiterate their ‘long’ EUR/GBP trade following this week’s release of UK employment and inflation data.
The call for further pound sterling weakness follows a set of soft UK data readings that mean UK interest rates will steadily fall towards those of the Eurozone in the coming months. “There is still scope for further rate convergence between EUR and GBP,” says Dominic Bunning, strategist at Nomura.
The pound to euro exchange rate is down half a per cent this week, with most of those declines following Tuesday’s news that the UK unemployment rate had risen to 5.2% in December, a five-year high.
“The UK unemployment rate has risen much further than most of its developed market peers,” says Bunning.
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The Bank of England will lower interest rates again in March and money market pricing shows investors see another reduction by mid-year, a move that will offer the economy some support. But the European Central Bank (ECB) has ended its rate cutting cycle, meaning UK interest rates will fall closer to those in the Eurozone.
That convergence will naturally weigh on pound sterling.
Nomura’s trade to sell the pound against the euro was raised to a 5/5 conviction in January, and Wednesday’s strategy update from the bank reaffirms the stance, targeting a move in EUR/GBP to 0.8950, which gives a GBP/EUR target at 1.1170.
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The odds of an interest rate reduction in March rose to a near certainty after headline CPI inflation fell to 3.0% in January, according to an ONS report released Wednesday.
Markets see another rate cut after that – taking Bank Rate to a resting point at 3.25% – before year-end, but analysts at Peel Hunt think inflation dynamics mean a further reduction is possible, meaning markets will have to adjust expectations further, which would weigh on sterling.
Kallum Pickering, economist at Peel Hunt, says this week’s data confirms a clear downward trend in UK headline inflation towards the BoE’s 2% target.
“Looking at annualised data, which gives a better measure of current price pressures, the BoE is now undershooting its target. Given known lags with monetary policy, the clear risk now is that the bank has fallen behind the curve and will need to play catch up – skewing risks towards more than the two cuts money markets see for this year,” he explains.
Image courtesy of Peel Hunt’s Kallum Pickering.
🎯 GBP/EUR year-ahead forecast: Consensus targets from our survey of over 30 investment bank projections. 📩 Request your copy.
However, some analysts think there’s a limit to the extent the Bank of England repricing can exert pressure on the pound.
“Our economist sees a terminal of 3.25% by June, whereas markets price that by year-end. An additional cut could be brought forward into H1, but it will be hard for BoE to ease much more than that with neutral around 3%… This puts a floor under BoE driven GBP weakness in our view,” says a new foreign exchange research note from JP Morgan.
Dig beneath the headlines of Wednesday’s inflation data and there are warning signs that the Bank of England will continue to struggle with stubborn inflation dynamics.
“It was the services sector where inflation can be stickier that continued to post above-expectations price increases,” says Lloyds Bank in a note covering the inflation release. Services inflation read at 4.4%, which is well above a level consistent with a sustained fall in inflation to the 2.0% target.
Above: Services inflation must fall further if CPI is to fall to 2.0% on a sustainable basis.
“Business surveys suggest that underlying cost pressures remain sticky, and medium-term inflation expectations are still too high for comfort,” says the IEA in their response to Wednesday’s data.
Oxford Economics raised its UK inflation forecasts following the figures, “partly due to us factoring in new regulatory price announcements over the past month, some of which have been slightly higher than anticipated.”
“Our forecast means we now see CPI inflation averaging 2.6% this year and next, up from 2.3% and 2.5% previously,” says Oxford Economics.
Such stubborn inflation would prevent the Bank of England from cutting on more than two occasions this year, limiting the extent of GBP weakness.
A new research note from Handelsbanken says UK inflation will rise again by the year-end, with persistence re-emerging as a challenge for policymakers, meaning the Bank of England is likely to keep policy relatively tight compared with several peers.
“This keeps front-end rate differentials elevated and provides cyclical support for GBP through the carry channel,” says the note.
To be sure, a number of headwinds blow against the pound, but a Bank of England hamstrung by inflation could well put a limit below the degree of weakness the currency is exposed to.
🎯 GBP/EUR year-ahead forecast: Consensus targets from our survey of over 30 investment bank projections. 📩 Request your copy.
The CHFJPY benefited by the repeated stability above the bullish channel’s support at 198.05 level, activating the bullish attack, to record several gains by reaching 200.85 attempting to settle above %50 Fibonacci correction level.
Providing bullish momentum by the main indicators will support our bullish expectation, to keep waiting for the price to reach $61.8Fibonacci correction level at 201.30, which might form an important obstacle against the bullish attempts, to push the price to provide mixed trading before breaching this barrier.
The expected trading range for today is between 199.85 and 201.30
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was rangebound on Thursday morning after falling to its lowest level in roughly three weeks during the previous session.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading close to $1.3486, showing minimal movement from Thursday’s opening levels.
The US Dollar traded unevenly through Thursday’s European session as investors continued analysing the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting.
Initially, the publication lent support to the ‘Greenback’, revealing broad agreement among policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged while also indicating that some officials remain open to further tightening should inflationary pressures persist.
However, enthusiasm for the US currency faded as upon further reading the minutes suggested US authorities reviewed exchange rate movements earlier in the year, fuelling speculation that policymakers may be more comfortable with a softer Dollar if required to support economic conditions.
The Pound lacked clear direction as domestic political concerns continued to weigh on market sentiment.
Renewed scrutiny surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer followed another policy reversal regarding delays to local elections, adding to doubts about the government’s stability ahead of the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election.
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At the same time, expectations that the Bank of England could soon begin loosening monetary policy continued to cap Sterling demand. Recent UK employment and inflation releases have strengthened market conviction that a rate cut as soon as March remains likely.
GBP/USD Forecast: Growth Data and UK Activity Surveys in Focus
Volatility in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate may increase toward the end of the week with several key economic releases scheduled on both sides of the Atlantic.
Markets will closely watch the latest US GDP estimate for the final quarter of 2025, which is forecast to show growth cooling following the disruption caused by the extended government shutdown. A stronger-than-expected reading, however, could provide renewed support for the US Dollar, given the resilience previously shown by the US economy.
Meanwhile, upcoming UK PMI surveys are expected to indicate slower expansion within the services sector, while retail sales growth is also projected to weaken. Should these forecasts materialise, Sterling may face additional downside pressure heading into the weekend.
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