Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market in the morning trading session of June 4, 2026 recorded a sharp decline after yesterday’s short-term recovery session.

According to survey data in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, bulk purchase prices simultaneously decreased from 1,200 to 1,400 VND per kg compared to the trading session on June 3, 2026, bringing the average price level of the whole region back to the 86,000 VND per kg mark.

Specifically, in Dak Lak, Gia Lai and Dak Nong (old), the purchase price recorded decreases of 1,200 VND, 1,200 VND and 1,300 VND respectively, currently fluctuating in the range of 86,000 VND per kg. In the Lam Dong area, the price of raw coffee beans decreased the most by 1,400 VND, to 85,300 VND per kg.

In other items, the price of pepper increased by 1,000 VND, to 140,000 VND per kg, while the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank remained unchanged at 26,092 VND.

World coffee prices

On international futures exchanges, coffee prices in the nearest closing session witnessed a simultaneous “slump”. On the London exchange, Robusta futures for July 2026 delivery fell sharply by 91 USD, equivalent to 2.63%, closing the session at 3,371 USD per ton.

Similarly, on the New York exchange, Arabica futures prices for delivery in July 2026 decreased by 6.10 cents, equivalent to 2.35%, falling to 253.10 cents per pound.

Selling pressure on both exchanges mainly came from information forecasting coffee production for the 2026/27 crop year of Brazil announced by the Foreign Agricultural Service Administration (FAS) under the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), with a forecast of reaching a record level of 71.9 million bags, an increase of 14% compared to the same period last year. This information completely changed the supply prospects, causing investment funds to accelerate position liquidation.

Coffee price assessment and forecast

The coffee market is currently in a period of strong technical correction as global supply prospects are clearly improved.

In addition to the latest report from USDA/FAS on record crops in Brazil, Rabobank has also just raised its global Arabica coffee surplus forecast for the 2026/27 crop year to 9.5 million bags.

The improvement in supply prospects in Brazil, combined with strong export data from Vietnam (up 15.8% in the first 4 months of the year), is creating negative pressure on prices.

However, this picture still has long-term supporting factors to note. Although Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange fell to 427,840 bags on Wednesday, the tight supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz still increased global shipping and logistics costs.

In addition, concerns about the “Super El Niño” phenomenon in the second half of 2026 are still a major risk variable for next year’s crop. In the short term, coffee prices may continue to be under adjustment pressure as the market responds to record crop information, but in the long term, the possibility of deep price drops will be limited by increased production and logistics costs.

JAKARTA – Analysts have again raised their global oil price forecasts for 2026 as energy supply disruptions continue due to the Iran conflict and trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain below pre-crisis levels.

According to a Reuters survey of 33 economists and analysts, the average price of Brent crude is now expected to reach US$90.44 per barrel in 2026, up from the previous month’s forecast of US$86.38 per barrel.

Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is projected to average US$84.63 per barrel, higher than April’s forecast of US$80.07 per barrel.

The latest increase marks the third consecutive upward revision since the Iran conflict began in late February. Compared with forecasts before the outbreak of the war, Brent and WTI price projections for 2026 have surged by around 40%.

Since the conflict started, Brent and WTI prices briefly climbed to their highest levels in four years, exceeding US$126 and US$119 per barrel respectively, as global energy supplies were disrupted following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Nevertheless, analysts believe the likelihood of oil prices reaching new record highs remains limited.

“The possibility of prices reaching a new record this year is very low. Although we expect prices to continue rising through July, any increase will be only marginal from current elevated levels,” said Surabhi Menon of EIU India.

“This assumption is based on the expectation that the situation in Iran will remain broadly unchanged, with the ceasefire holding and the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, at least until the end of July.”

Data from Kpler show that Middle Eastern crude oil exports have fallen sharply since the crisis began. Export volumes, which previously averaged 18.3 million barrels per day, have now declined to approximately 8.8 million barrels per day.

NORD/LB analyst Thomas Wybierek expects energy distribution disruptions to persist longer than initially anticipated.

“These disruptions will last longer than expected until trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz return to pre-crisis levels,” he said.

“Even in the event of a ceasefire or some form of short-term peace agreement, we do not expect seaborne oil and gas shipments in 2026 to return to previous levels.”

Most analysts forecast that the global oil market will face a supply deficit throughout 2026. Estimates of the shortfall range from 500,000 to 8 million barrels per day.

On the demand side, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth next year to 1.17 million barrels per day from a previous estimate of 1.38 million barrels per day.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has gone further, forecasting that global oil demand will decline by around 420,000 barrels per day.

“From a demand perspective, headwinds are increasing due to weaker macroeconomic conditions. Higher prices, weaker trade flows and downgraded GDP forecasts are weighing on consumption growth.

In essence, the conflict is tightening supply while simultaneously slowing demand growth,” said analysts at Crisil.

Although several OPEC+ members are expected to agree to a production increase at the upcoming 7 June meeting, analysts believe additional supply will provide limited relief as long as export routes through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted.

“The binding constraint is not production quotas but the physical inability to move additional barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning production policy remains largely symbolic while exports continue to be disrupted,” said UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller. (DH/LM)

Downtrend Structure Points to Lower Targets

Other than the potential support zone near the uptrend line and 200-day moving average, gold is in a downtrend correction that has established a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows since it peaked in January at $5,597. The projection of that trend would lead to another test of support near the $4,091 price zone. Since it currently aligns with another long-term uptrend line, it takes on added significance as a potential support zone. However, a decisive decline below the short-term trend low of $4,366 points toward the next downside target zone near the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,262. That price area will soon be joined by the rising 50-week moving average, now at $4,229.

Conditions for Stabilization or Reversal

Despite the potential for a bearish continuation, key support has held so far, and it may continue to do so, which would instead open the door to a corrective bounce and potential bullish reversal signals. That could result in a bounce and eventual bullish reversal signals. Gold has been falling since the lower swing high of $4,891 was established in April. But the decline has been relatively slow, with ongoing signs of consolidation rather than impulsive selling.

Short-Term Resistance Levels Define Recovery Threshold

Strength would first be indicated on a rally above Wednesday’s high but with little conviction. That leaves the three-day high of $4,546 as a short-term resistance that might provide an early warning for a potential breakout above the lower swing high of $4,595, which would represent a more meaningful bullish confirmation as it would also coincide with a reclaim of the 20-day moving average.

Copper price continued forming bullish waves, achieving clear gains by reaching $6.6300 level, facing the recently achieved historical top to settle near it.

Note that the positive factors that are represented by forming extra support at $6.2500 level, and providing positive momentum by the main indicators, which makes us keep the bullish scenario, to expect targeting new historical stations that might begin at $6.7400 reaching $6.9400.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.4700 and $6.7400

Trend forecast: Bullish

Domestic coffee prices

The domestic coffee market in the morning trading session of June 3, 2026 recorded a positive recovery momentum after a series of previous downward adjustments. According to survey data in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the bulk purchase price simultaneously increased slightly from 500 to 600 VND per kg, bringing the regional average price level to the threshold of 87,200 VND per kg.

In Dak Nong province (old), the purchase price increased by 600 VND, to 87,300 VND per kg, continuing to maintain the highest position in the region.

In Dak Lak and Gia Lai, prices both recorded an increase of 500 VND, currently trading stably at the threshold of 87,200 VND per kg.

Meanwhile, the Lam Dong area listed a price of 86,700 VND per kg after increasing by 500 VND compared to the previous session.

In other items, pepper prices remained unchanged at the threshold of 139,000 VND per kg, especially the USD/VND exchange rate at Vietcombank recorded at 26,092 VND.

World coffee prices

Developments on international futures exchanges in the nearest closing session continued to witness clear differentiation between the two exchanges.

On the London exchange, Robusta futures for July 2026 delivery continued to maintain green with an increase of 24 USD, equivalent to 0.70%, closing the session at 3,462 USD per ton.

Conversely, the New York exchange recorded Arabica futures for July 2026 delivery down 1.40 cents, equivalent to 0.54%, falling to 259.20 cents per pound. Pressure on Arabica prices mainly comes from a drier weather forecast in Brazil this week, a factor expected to support the resumption of harvesting after a period of interruption due to heavy rain.

Coffee price assessment and forecast

World coffee prices closed in opposite directions on Tuesday, with Arabica prices falling to the lowest level of the nearest contract in 1.5 years.

The coffee market is entering a period of fierce tug-of-war between fundamental factors.

On the one hand, pressure from global supply prospects is weighing heavily on speculators’ sentiment. Reputable organizations such as Coffee Trading Academy forecast that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee production will increase sharply by 12% over the same period, reaching the threshold of 71.4 million bags, while StoneX forecasts that the global surplus in 2026 may reach 10 million bags.

Coffee exports from our country in the first 4 months of this year increased by 15.8%, which is also a factor putting negative pressure on Robusta prices.

However, the long-term picture still contains many risks for the selling side. Concerns about the El Niño weather phenomenon that is likely to turn into a “Super El Niño” spell later this year, combined with prolonged drought, are directly threatening Brazil’s 2026/27 crop harvest.

At the same time, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to push up transportation costs, insurance and fertilizers, increasing costs for roasters around the globe, thereby maintaining pressure to tighten the actual supply.

In the near future, coffee prices are likely to continue to fluctuate strongly according to weather developments in Brazil. If harvesting conditions in South America are really favorable in June, prices may be under adjustment pressure.

Conversely, if the drought situation in Vietnam continues to prolong, Robusta prices on the London exchange have every opportunity to maintain their upward momentum or break through if inventories continue to maintain at a record low.