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Silver (XAG/USD) struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s positive move and oscillates in a narrow trading band during the Asian session on Thursday. The white metal, however, holds above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) and currently trades just above mid-$76.00s, down 1.0% for the day.
The XAG/USD holds above this average, signaling a tentative recovery attempt. Moreover, the overnight breakout through a short-term descending channel resistance, which coincides with the said SMA, favors bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 55, neutral, after easing from earlier overbought readings.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has slipped into slight negative territory after contracting, suggesting the MACD line has fallen below the Signal line near the zero level. The descending channel resistance breakpoint and the 100-hour SMA should offer initial support to the XAG/USD.
Holding above the SMA would keep recovery attempts in play, while a close back beneath it would open the door to a deeper pullback. As long as the XAG/USD holds above the breakout point, the path would favor further recovery. That said, a close back inside the formation would revive the prior downtrend toward the lower band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The GBPJPY pair approached the previously waited main target by reaching 207.30 level which forces it to form some bullish corrective waves, affected by stochastic rally above 50 level, which allows it to recover some losses to settle near 208.15.
Note that the negative stability below 209.15 level represents main factor to confirm the previously suggested negativity, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra negative momentum to reinforce the chances of reaching 207.05, while surpassing the barrier and holding above it will ease the mission of achieving several gains by its rally towards 209.85 reaching 207.05.
The expected trading range for today is between 207.05 and 208.75
Trend forecast: Bearish
Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a positive tone on Wednesday, snapping a two-day losing streak as dip buyers step in to cushion the downside. At the time of writing, XAG/USD is hovering around $77.50, up over 5.5% on the day.
Despite the intraday bounce, the white metal could struggle to build on gains in the near term as traders reassess the evolving macro backdrop and technical landscape. Investors remain cautious about chasing prices aggressively higher, with speculative interest cooling after the sharp correction from record highs near $121.66 set in late January.
At the same time, signs of progress in US-Iran talks could weigh on safe-haven demand, but Silver’s dual role as both an industrial and investment metal remains supportive, while a persistent physical supply deficit helps to keep the broader outlook supported on dips.
Trading volumes are expected to remain thin, with China and several other Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year holiday. The closure of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), one of the largest venues for physical silver trading and delivery, may reduce liquidity during Asian hours, with trading activity likely to normalize when markets reopen next Tuesday.
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart is starting to turn constructive. XAG/USD is forming a triangle pattern, with price action compressing and volatility narrowing, increasing the risk of a breakout in either direction.
Momentum indicators are beginning to tilt in favor of the bulls. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed into positive territory and remains above its signal line, pointing to improving upside momentum.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding near 55, firming above the neutral 50 mark and suggesting strengthening buying pressure.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands near the upper boundary of the triangle around the $80.00 psychological mark. A break above this level could pave the way toward the 100-period SMA at $85.69. However, the near-term bias remains tilted to the downside unless price clears that moving average decisively.
On the downside, a break below the lower boundary of the triangle could expose the recent correction low near $64.00, which may act as the next key support level.
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
BitcoinWorld
GBP/JPY Forecast Plummets: Bank of Japan’s Hawkish Pivot Crushes Sterling
LONDON, March 2025 – The GBP/JPY currency pair has entered a pronounced downward trajectory this week, marking one of the most significant weekly declines in 2025. Consequently, market analysts now attribute this sharp movement primarily to shifting monetary policy expectations from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The central bank’s increasingly hawkish communication has fundamentally altered the interest rate differential outlook, thereby providing substantial underlying support for the Japanese Yen against the British Pound.
Forex charts currently display a clear bearish pattern for the GBP/JPY cross. The pair recently broke below the critical 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which now act as dynamic resistance levels. Furthermore, trading volume has surged during the sell-off, confirming the strength of the downward momentum. Key support levels from early 2024 are now being tested, and a breach could open the path for further significant losses. Market sentiment, as measured by the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, shows a rapid buildup of short positions on the pair by institutional investors. This technical deterioration coincides perfectly with the fundamental shift emanating from Tokyo.
The Bank of Japan has embarked on a gradual but unmistakable exit from its decades-long ultra-accommodative monetary framework. This policy shift represents a watershed moment for global forex markets. Initially, the BoJ ended its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) in 2024. Subsequently, it has begun signaling a willingness to normalize policy further as domestic inflation shows signs of becoming entrenched. Governor Kazuo Ueda’s recent parliamentary testimony emphasized a data-dependent approach, but his acknowledgment of rising wage pressures and service-sector inflation was interpreted as decidedly hawkish. This communication marks a stark contrast to the Bank of England’s (BoE) current stance, which appears more cautious despite persistent UK inflation concerns.
Financial institutions like Nomura and Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities have published detailed analyses on the narrowing yield gap. “The core driver for GBP/JPY is the convergence of government bond yields,” explains a senior currency strategist at a major Tokyo-based bank. “As markets price in potential BoJ rate hikes in late 2025 or early 2026, the yield advantage that supported the carry trade into GBP is evaporating. We are witnessing a classic unwinding of long GBP/JPY positions that were predicated on a static policy divergence.” Historical data supports this view; periods of BoJ policy normalization have consistently correlated with Yen strength across the board.
The monetary policy divergence story is now reversing. The following table summarizes the key factors influencing each central bank:
| Factor | Bank of Japan (BoJ) | Bank of England (BoE) |
|---|---|---|
| Primary Focus | Exiting ultra-loose policy, managing inflation sustainably to 2% | Balancing persistent inflation against weak economic growth |
| Market Expectation | Further rate hikes priced in for 2025/2026 | Rate cuts anticipated, though timing is uncertain |
| Economic Backdrop | Strong wage growth (Shunto results), rising service prices | Sticky services inflation, but recession risks loom |
| Currency Impact | Hawkish shift = Yen appreciation | Dovish tilt = Pound depreciation |
This juxtaposition creates a powerful two-way pressure on GBP/JPY. The Pound faces headwinds from a cautious BoE, while the Yen receives direct tailwinds from a newly assertive BoJ.
Beyond direct policy, broader market conditions amplify the move. Notably, a strengthening Yen often correlates with a downturn in global risk appetite. As a traditional safe-haven currency, the Yen attracts flows during periods of uncertainty. Recent geopolitical tensions and volatility in equity markets have contributed to this dynamic. Simultaneously, the British Pound remains sensitive to UK-specific economic data, which has been mixed. Weak retail sales figures and declining manufacturing PMI have undermined arguments for BoE hawkishness. Therefore, the pair is caught in a perfect storm of shifting fundamentals.
Analysts are reviewing previous BoJ policy transitions, such as the 2006-2007 rate hikes, for clues. Historically, the initial signaling phase produces the most volatile currency moves. Looking ahead, the path for GBP/JPY will hinge on several verifiable data points:
The consensus forecast among major banks has been revised downward, with many technical analysts identifying the next major support zone for GBP/JPY significantly below current levels.
The GBP/JPY forecast has turned decisively bearish due to a fundamental repricing of Bank of Japan policy. The BoJ’s hawkish stance, aimed at normalizing policy after years of extraordinary stimulus, provides a firm foundation for Yen strength. Concurrently, the Bank of England’s more restrained outlook removes a key pillar of support for the Pound. This dual dynamic suggests the recent slide in the currency pair may extend further. Traders and investors must now monitor BoJ communications and Japanese wage data as closely as UK inflation reports, as the era of predictable policy divergence has clearly ended.
Q1: What does a “hawkish stance” from the Bank of Japan mean?
A hawkish stance indicates the central bank is focused on controlling inflation and is inclined to raise interest rates or tighten monetary policy. For the BoJ, this marks a major shift away from its long-standing ultra-loose policy.
Q2: Why does a stronger Yen cause GBP/JPY to fall?
GBP/JPY quotes how many Japanese Yen (JPY) are needed to buy one British Pound (GBP). If the Yen strengthens (gains value), it takes fewer Yen to buy a Pound, so the GBP/JPY exchange rate declines.
Q3: Is this just a short-term technical move, or a long-term trend?
While short-term volatility is always present, the move is driven by a fundamental reassessment of long-term interest rate differentials. This suggests the potential for a sustained trend, not merely a temporary correction.
Q4: How does UK economic data affect this pair now?
Weak UK data reinforces the view that the Bank of England may cut rates before the BoJ hikes, widening the policy divergence in favor of the Yen. Strong UK data could temporarily stall the decline, but the dominant driver has shifted to BoJ policy.
Q5: What are the risks to this bearish GBP/JPY forecast?
The primary risk is a sudden reversal in BoJ communication, signaling a delay in policy normalization. Alternatively, a surge in UK inflation forcing the BoE to hike rates aggressively could also undermine the current trend.
This post GBP/JPY Forecast Plummets: Bank of Japan’s Hawkish Pivot Crushes Sterling first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
Spot Gold trades with a better tone on Thursday, trimming previous session losses and struggling to recover the $5,000 mark in the American session. The bright metal managed to recover from a weekly low of $4,842.06 achieved on Wednesday, but the lack of follow-through is likely to keep buying interest subdued.
The US Dollar (USD) trades mixed across the FX board as investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) February monetary policy meeting. Policymakers held the interest rate unchanged when they met in January, in line with the market expectations. The accompanying statement provided not many clues on what’s next in the docket, while the following press conference led by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell revolved around politics rather than monetary policy.
And there’s a good reason for that: Chair Powell’s term ends in May, and President Donald Trump has already nominated Kevin Warsh as his successor. Warsh’s Senate approval remains pending, but market players assume he will be the next head of the Fed and that he will deliver rate cuts. How many and at what pace remains a doubt. Yet the biggest doubt is whether the Fed could remain independent if Warsh shows signs of pleasing Trump rather than following the FOMC’s path.
Back to the Minutes, the document has little chance of impressing market players, as all eyes are on whatever Warsh may or may not do.
The 4-hour chart for XAU/USD shows the pair remains neutral. It trades above a flat 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,961.02, while a directionless 100-period SMA caps advances at $5,009.35. The 200-period SMA aims higher at $4,844.63, keeping the broader bias underpinned even as price consolidates between the shorter benchmarks. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads nowhere around its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator steadies at 55, reinforcing the idea of a consolidative phase.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD is unable to advance beyond a bullish 20-day SMA at around $5,003 for a second consecutive day. Meanwhile, technical indicators bounced, the Momentum from near oversold readings and still dipped into negative territory, and the RSI indicator from around its midline, aiming north at around 54. The longer moving averages in the daily chart maintainain their bullish slopes far below the current level, helping limit the mid-term bearish case.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
The GBPJPY pair approached the previously waited main target by reaching 207.30 level which forces it to form some bullish corrective waves, affected by stochastic rally above 50 level, which allows it to recover some losses to settle near 208.15.
Note that the negative stability below 209.15 level represents main factor to confirm the previously suggested negativity, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra negative momentum to reinforce the chances of reaching 207.05, while surpassing the barrier and holding above it will ease the mission of achieving several gains by its rally towards 209.85 reaching 207.05.
The expected trading range for today is between 207.05 and 208.75
Trend forecast: Bearish
Coffee price continued forming strong bearish trading, affected by forming solid barrier at 330.00 level in the last trading, to notice reaching 283.00 to record the suggested targets in the previous reports.
Stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level might push the price to form mixed trading, but it will not affect the negative scenario, to expect reaching 275.80 level, and breaking it will open the way for reaching extra negative stations that might begin at 264.60 and 241.40.
The expected trading range for today is between 264.00 and 298.00
Trend forecast: Bearish
The GBP/USD pair trades flat at around 1.3570 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The pair flattens while the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades higher after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January.
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.16% | -0.04% | 0.31% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.73% | 0.21% | |
| EUR | -0.16% | -0.20% | 0.13% | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.58% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | 0.04% | 0.20% | 0.31% | 0.16% | 0.20% | 0.78% | 0.23% | |
| JPY | -0.31% | -0.13% | -0.31% | -0.17% | -0.13% | 0.44% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | 0.03% | -0.16% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.61% | 0.07% | |
| AUD | -0.15% | -0.00% | -0.20% | 0.13% | -0.04% | 0.58% | 0.03% | |
| NZD | -0.73% | -0.58% | -0.78% | -0.44% | -0.61% | -0.58% | -0.55% | |
| CHF | -0.21% | -0.05% | -0.23% | 0.10% | -0.07% | -0.03% | 0.55% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
However, the outlook of the British currency has become uncertain as the data has shown that inflationary pressures have cooled down at an expected pace. The UK’s headline inflation has come in lower at 3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.4% in December. In the same period, the core CPI growth cooled down to 3.1%.
Soft UK CPI data is expected to strengthen market speculation that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates in its monetary policy meeting in March.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the January policy meeting at 19:00 GMT.
At the press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 97.30.
GBP/USD trades almost flat at around 1.3570 as of writing. On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes lower and stands at 1.3591, keeping the near-term bias pressured.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the same chart at 44 sits below the 50 midline, pointing to subdued momentum despite a tentative uptick.
Overall, the outlook of the pair appears bearish as it struggles to return above the lower border of the Symmetrical Triangle post the breakdown. Looking down, Cable could extend its decline towards the January 22 low around 1.3400 if it breaks below Tuesday’s low of 1.3500.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
(This story was corrected on February 18 at 13:22 GMT to say that technical indicators refer to the 4-hour chart, not daily.)
The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
No change for copper price’s bearish corrective track, despite the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction, but the stability below the barrier at $5.9700 supports this negativity in the near trading.
Therefore, we will keep waiting for the resuming negative attempts, which might target the extra support level at $5.5100, note that breaking this support will open the way for targeting new corrective stations that might extend towards $5.3600 reaching the next support base at $5.1000 level.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.5100 and $5.7500
Trend forecast: Bearish
rose to 153.50 on Wednesday. The yen gave up some of the gains from the previous session, despite strong foreign trade statistics.
Japan’s exports rose at their fastest pace in more than three years in January, driven by robust demand for AI-related chips. This data increased expectations of continued policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan.
At the same time, weak fourth-quarter GDP, which came in below forecasts and narrowly avoided a technical recession, is restraining optimism.
Investors believe Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s economic policy could support growth and indirectly strengthen the case for a gradual rate hike. The market is now pricing in the possibility of a tightening policy in April.
The IMF has previously stated that it does not set a specific target level for the yen, believing instead that the exchange rate is determined by market factors.

Overall, the market is compressing ahead of a potential move. A breakout of the range will set the direction for the next motion.
In summary, USD/JPY remains caught between conflicting fundamental factors: robust export data support BoJ normalisation expectations, but weak GDP and political uncertainty limit yen strength. Technically, the pair is coiling within a tightening range, signalling an imminent directional breakout. The neutral-bearish bias persists as long as the price holds below 153.80–153.95 resistance. A clear break above this level would target 154.60, while failure could trigger a retest of 152.25 support. With the BoJ’s April policy meeting in focus, the next significant move awaits a fresh catalyst.
By RoboForex Analytical Department
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.