Gold prices are ending 2025 in rare territory: near record highs, up roughly two-thirds year-to-date, and with Wall Street forecasts increasingly clustering around the $4,500–$5,000 zone for 2026. As of Saturday, December 20, spot gold (XAU/USD) is hovering around $4,338 per ounce after Friday’s close, with the latest daily range showing buyers defending dips toward the $4,300 handle and sellers leaning against the mid-$4,350s. ^[1]

That near-term “pause” masks a bigger story: gold is being pulled between a firmer U.S. dollar and higher yields on one side, and rate-cut expectations, central-bank demand, and persistent geopolitical uncertainty on the other—an unusually supportive mix that has kept pullbacks shallow in late December trading. ^[2]

Where the gold price stands on 20.12.2025

• Spot gold (XAU/USD): about $4,338.55 (latest quoted level following Friday’s session). ^[3]
• Recent resistance zone:$4,350–$4,355, where multiple attempts have stalled. ^[4]
• Key psychological support:$4,300 (a level repeatedly referenced in late-week trading commentary and technical setups). ^[5]
• 2025 record high: around $4,381/oz (October peak), which remains the main “line in the sand” for breakout watchers into year-end. ^[6]

Friday’s session capped a steady week: Reuters reported spot gold around $4,347/oz late Friday in New York trading, with U.S. gold futures settling higher and gold posting a weekly gain. ^[7]

What’s driving gold right now

1) The Fed pivot narrative is still the backbone of the rally

Gold’s 2025 surge has been closely tied to expectations that U.S. policy rates will continue to ease and that real rates will be less restrictive in 2026. Reuters noted that traders have been leaning toward at least two 25-basis-point cuts next year, and recent U.S. data has kept that debate alive. ^[8]

Even within thin year-end conditions, gold has stayed resilient as investors digest softer inflation and a cooling jobs backdrop referenced in market coverage this week. ^[9]

2) A firmer dollar is a headwind—but not (yet) a deal-breaker

A stronger U.S. dollar typically makes gold more expensive for non-dollar buyers. Late-week reporting highlighted that the dollar recovered toward short-term highs, adding friction to gold’s attempts to push cleanly beyond the mid-$4,350s. ^[10]

FXStreet also flagged that holiday conditions can reduce liquidity and magnify swings—often producing sharp, headline-driven moves that do not always reflect a true change in trend. ^[11]

3) Central banks are still seen as the “anchor” bid

The most important structural element underpinning gold into 2026 is official-sector buying. Reuters’ mid-December outlook framed it plainly: central banks have been diversifying reserves away from dollar assets, providing a foundation for prices even when investor positioning becomes stretched. ^[12]

In the same Reuters report, J.P. Morgan’s metals strategy team estimated that to keep prices flat, the market needs roughly 350 tonnes per quarter of central bank and investment demand—and they forecast that buying could average 585 tonnes per quarter in 2026. ^[13]

That “official bid” theme is also colliding with politics. For example, Reuters reported that an Italian parliamentary committee backed language asserting that the Bank of Italy’s gold reserves “belong to the people,” a politically charged move that drew criticism from the European Central Bank over central bank independence. ^[14]

4) ETF demand and speculative positioning matter again

Gold’s 2025 rally has not been purely a central-bank story. The World Gold Council’s 2026 outlook highlighted that investment demand—especially through gold ETFs—has been a major driver during the current bull run. It cited about $77 billion of inflows this year, adding more than 700 tonnes to ETF holdings, and noted that total holdings are up by roughly 850 tonnes since May 2024. ^[15]

Meanwhile, a World Gold Council weekly monitor noted that increased ETF buying and rising bullish positioning in derivatives were among the forces pushing gold higher into December. ^[16]

5) Physical demand is shifting, not disappearing

High prices are changing the composition of consumer demand—especially in price-sensitive regions.

A Dec. 20 report in The Economic Times, citing the World Gold Council’s India commentary, said India’s gold consumption is projected to fall to 650–700 tonnes in 2025 from 802.8 tonnes in 2024, reflecting how the price surge has crimped volume demand even as investment buying remains comparatively firm. ^[17]

This matters for the 2026 outlook because softer jewellery volumes can reduce one source of baseline demand. But it can also reinforce gold’s shift from “consumer good” toward “financial asset,” especially when investment flows are strong.

Gold price forecast roundup: the $4,500–$5,000 debate for 2026

A striking feature of late-December research notes is how many major institutions now see gold staying elevated in 2026—though they disagree on how quickly it gets there and how volatile the path may be.

Here are the most widely cited targets and ranges circulating as of Dec. 20:

• Goldman Sachs: base-case $4,900/oz by December 2026, citing structurally high central bank demand and cyclical support from Fed rate cuts (with upside risk if private-investor diversification broadens). ^[18]
• Morgan Stanley: expects gold to reach $4,800/oz by Q4 2026, even if gains slow versus 2025; drivers include rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and Chinese retail demand. ^[19]
• Deutsche Bank: raised its 2026 forecast to $4,450/oz, projecting a $3,950–$4,950 trading range next year and maintaining a $5,150 view for 2027. ^[20]
• HSBC: sees a possible spike to $5,000/oz in the first half of 2026, while also warning of volatility and potential moderation later in 2026. ^[21]
• Reuters’ mid-December survey-style outlook: cited analysts at J.P. Morgan, Bank of America and Metals Focus seeing $5,000/oz in 2026; it also reported J.P. Morgan expecting average prices above $4,600 in Q2 2026 and above $5,000 in Q4 2026, while Macquarie was more conservative at an average $4,225 in 2026. ^[22]

The common thread across these forecasts is that the “old” gold playbook—rates down, dollar down, gold up—has been joined by a newer structural narrative: reserve diversification, geopolitical fragmentation, and persistent tail risks that keep gold strategically relevant even when inflation is not spiking.

World Gold Council’s 2026 scenarios: what would push gold higher—or pull it back?

Rather than offering a single point forecast, the World Gold Council mapped out scenario-based ranges for 2026 performance (and explicitly described them as hypothetical illustrations rather than firm forecasts).

Key scenarios it outlined include: ^[23]

• Macro consensus: roughly rangebound performance (about -5% to +5%).
• “A shallow slip” (moderate slowdown / defensive rotation): gold could rise 5% to 15%.
• “The doom loop” (deeper synchronized slowdown + higher geopolitical stress): gold could rise 15% to 30%, with ETF demand a key driver.
• “Reflation return” (stronger growth + higher yields + stronger dollar): gold could fall 5% to 20% as opportunity cost rises and risk-on sentiment returns.

What makes these scenarios useful for investors and readers right now is that they translate the 2026 gold debate into a simple framework:

• If rates fall faster than expected or risk appetite deteriorates, gold has a credible path to another leg higher. ^[24]
• If yields stay high and the dollar strengthens materially, gold’s opportunity cost rises—and the market becomes vulnerable to a more meaningful correction. ^[25]

Technical and market analysis: why $4,300 is the level to watch

Late-December technical commentary has converged around a familiar structure: consolidation below resistance with buyers stepping in on dips.

• FXStreet described gold as “treading water” between roughly $4,300 and $4,355, with price action consistent with consolidation rather than capitulation. ^[26]
• A World Gold Council weekly monitor also referenced a triangle continuation pattern, noting that gold cleared resistance around $4,245/oz to confirm the pattern’s continuation in its review of the week. ^[27]

What that means in practical terms:

• A sustained move above $4,355–$4,381 would refocus attention on record territory and reinforce breakout narratives. ^[28]
• A break below $4,300 would not automatically end the bull market, but it would increase the odds of a deeper reset toward lower support zones that technicians have been monitoring beneath the triangle structure. ^[29]

Also worth noting: multiple market commentaries emphasized that late-December trading can be distorted by holiday liquidity, which can produce exaggerated moves around key levels like $4,300 and $4,350. ^[30]

Other gold-linked headlines in the mix

While macro drivers dominate, several policy and supply-side developments are also feeding into the broader gold narrative:

• Italy’s gold reserves and central bank independence: Reuters reported that Italy’s parliamentary budget committee approved language saying the central bank’s gold reserves belong to “the people,” despite ECB objections. The Bank of Italy’s gold stockpile is 2,452 tonnes, valued at about $300 billion, per Reuters. ^[31]
• Zimbabwe’s mining royalties: Reuters reported Zimbabwe reversed plans to double its gold royalty to 10%, keeping the 5% rate for prices between $1,200 and $5,000/oz, with the 10% rate applying only above $5,000/oz—a reminder that governments are watching the “$5,000 gold” narrative closely. ^[32]
• India’s demand adjustment: As noted, India’s consumption outlook suggests volume pressure from high prices, even as investment demand holds up. ^[33]

These aren’t day-to-day price drivers the way U.S. rates are, but they help explain why gold is increasingly treated as a strategic asset class—intertwined with reserves, fiscal debates, and policy decisions.

What to watch next week for gold (and why it matters)

With markets reopening after the weekend, gold traders are likely to focus on three near-term themes:

1. Fed expectations vs. dollar strength
   Gold can rally with a firm dollar for short stretches (safe-haven demand can overwhelm FX), but persistent dollar strength tends to cap upside. ^[34]
2. Central bank and ETF flow signals
   The 2026 outlooks from major banks and the World Gold Council repeatedly circle back to the same idea: gold is most powerful when official buying and ETF investment demand reinforce each other. ^[35]
3. Year-end liquidity and volatility risk
   Thin liquidity can turn routine moves into sharp spikes—especially around the obvious magnets: $4,300 support and $4,350–$4,380 resistance. ^[36]

Bottom line: gold enters 2026 expensive—but still structurally supported

As of Dec. 20, 2025, gold is consolidating near $4,338/oz after an extraordinary year. ^[37] The market is no longer just trading inflation headlines; it is pricing a broader set of forces—rate paths, reserve diversification, ETF demand, and geopolitics—that many forecasters believe can keep gold elevated into 2026. ^[38]

The key question for the months ahead is not whether gold remains important, but which driver dominates: a softer growth/risk-off backdrop that fuels the next leg higher—or a stronger dollar/higher-yield regime that finally forces a deeper reset after a historic run. ^[39]

References

1. www.investing.com, 2. www.fxstreet.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.fxstreet.com, 5. www.fxstreet.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.fxstreet.com, 11. www.fxstreet.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.gold.org, 16. www.gold.org, 17. m.economictimes.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.gold.org, 24. www.gold.org, 25. www.gold.org, 26. www.fxstreet.com, 27. www.gold.org, 28. www.fxstreet.com, 29. www.fxstreet.com, 30. www.fxstreet.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. m.economictimes.com, 34. www.fxstreet.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.fxstreet.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.gold.org

December 20, 2025 — Natural gas markets are closing out the week with a familiar winter tug-of-war: weather forecasts softening near-term heating demand, while LNG export pull and policy shifts keep longer-term supply anxiety alive. Friday’s last traded levels (with weekend markets largely closed) show a market that’s no longer panicking about immediate shortages—but also not comfortable enough to price in a smooth ride through 2026.

Below is a comprehensive roundup of the key natural gas news, forecasts, and analyses in circulation on 20.12.2025, spanning the U.S. Henry Hub benchmark, Europe’s TTF, and global LNG pricing—plus what major outlooks imply for 2026. ^[1]

Key takeaways driving natural gas prices right now

• U.S. natural gas futures swung sharply as warmer weather outlooks through early January weighed on heating demand, even as LNG feedgas flows stayed near record highs. ^[2]
• Europe’s gas market is balancing lower-than-last-year storage against a strong LNG inflow backdrop, while wind generation volatility continues to move day-to-day pricing. ^[3]
• Asian spot LNG prices slid to around a 20‑month low as demand stayed muted and supply remained ample—an important signal for where “global clearing prices” may sit as new LNG capacity ramps up. ^[4]
• For 2026, forecasts diverge—but the debate is clear: LNG export growth vs. production response will decide whether Henry Hub settles closer to $4… or pushes toward $5. ^[5]

U.S. natural gas prices: Henry Hub ends the week whipsawing

The U.S. benchmark (NYMEX) January Henry Hub contract ended Friday’s session higher at $3.984/MMBtu, with Reuters noting the move was supported by near-record LNG export flows even as the broader weather narrative stayed bearish. ^[6]

But the session’s headline was volatility. Another Reuters update circulating on Dec. 20 described futures easing toward a seven-week low near $3.879/MMBtu as forecasts turned warmer—before prices later firmed into the close. ^[7]

That intraday push-pull matters because it reveals what traders are currently pricing:

• Warmth (bearish): Meteorologists’ outlooks showed much of the U.S. warmer than normal through Jan. 3, typically reducing residential and commercial heating demand. ^[8]
• Exports (bullish): Feedgas flows to the eight major U.S. LNG plants averaged ~18.5 Bcf/d so far in December, above November’s prior record pace, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. ^[9]
• Output (bearish): Lower 48 production has been holding around 109.6 Bcf/d, matching November’s record-high monthly average, again per LSEG figures cited by Reuters. ^[10]

Storage and the “widow-maker” spread are flashing a comfort signal

One of the most telling signals right now isn’t the front-month contract—it’s the shape of the curve.

Reuters reporting highlighted that the March–April 2026 premium (a spread traders watch to express late-winter risk) was trading at an ultra-thin ~1 cent—a record low in that update. In industry slang, this March/April position is called the “widow-maker” because violent weather-driven moves have historically wiped out leveraged bets. ^[11]

When that spread compresses, it usually implies the market is less worried about end-of-winter scarcity—at least given current information. That doesn’t mean winter can’t surprise; it does mean the curve is currently pricing more “manageable winter” than “crisis.” ^[12]

On fundamentals, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly update (released Dec. 18, covering the week ending Dec. 17) also documented a 167 Bcf net storage withdrawal for the week ending Dec. 12, leaving total working gas stocks at 3,579 Bcf—about 1% above the five-year average but 2% below year-ago levels. ^[13]

LNG is still the center of gravity—and the headlines prove it

Even on days when weather models dominate U.S. price action, the LNG complex keeps “pulling” on the balance sheet.

U.S. LNG feedgas near records despite small plant fluctuations

Reuters noted that feedgas gains came despite small flow declines at Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines facilities in Louisiana in recent days (as described by analysts in that report). ^[14]

Meanwhile, the EIA weekly update recorded 33 LNG vessels departing U.S. ports between Dec. 11 and Dec. 17 with a combined capacity of 126 Bcf, underscoring how strong the shipping cadence has been heading into year-end. ^[15]

Major project development news: Energy Transfer pauses Lake Charles LNG

In one of the week’s most closely watched corporate signals, Energy Transfer said it was suspending development of its Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana, citing capital allocation priorities toward pipelines and concerns around the economics of an increasingly crowded LNG buildout cycle. Reuters reported the proposed facility was expected to have 16.45 mtpa of liquefaction capacity. ^[16]

Why this matters for prices: a pause or cancellation doesn’t change tomorrow’s molecule flows, but it alters the market’s long-run “oversupply” assumptions—especially if it becomes a pattern rather than a one-off. ^[17]

LNG shipping rates slide, changing arbitrage math

Another “plumbing” indicator moved this week: Atlantic LNG shipping rates fell below $100,000/day. LNG Prime reported Spark’s Atlantic freight assessment at $92,000/day (down $23,750 week-on-week), with Pacific rates also lower. ^[18]

Freight doesn’t just affect shipping companies—it can widen or narrow netbacks and influence whether marginal cargoes flow toward Europe or Asia when price spreads are thin. ^[19]

Europe natural gas: TTF edges up as wind fades—while storage stays the real story

Europe’s gas market has been trading a different narrative than the U.S.: less about one country’s weather model and more about the system-wide resilience of storage, LNG inflows, and power-sector swings.

A Reuters update republished on Dec. 20 reported the Dutch TTF front-month up around €0.70 to ~€28.05/MWh, with prices supported by weaker wind power output, which can increase gas-fired generation needs. ^[20]

Europe’s storage is lower than last year—yet targets were relaxed

A widely circulated ING analysis (also dated Dec. 20) emphasized that the EU entered the 2025/26 heating season below the original 90% storage target by Nov. 1—but crucially, it also noted the Commission’s earlier move to relax storage rules, reducing the pressure to buy “at any cost.” Storage peaked around 83% in mid-October, and by early December had fallen to about 75%, below both the five-year average and last year’s ~85% at that point. ^[21]

This is the key European tension:

• Lower storage increases vulnerability to cold spells or supply disruptions. ^[22]
• Relaxed targets and strong LNG imports reduce “panic bidding.” ^[23]

Complementing that view, LNG Prime cited Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) data showing EU storage at about 68.24% full on Dec. 17, down from 71.29% a week earlier and 77.10% on the comparable date in 2024. ^[24]

Speculators are heavily short TTF—setting up a squeeze risk

ING’s analysis flagged positioning as a risk factor: it said investment funds moved from net long 292 TWh in February to net short 50 TWh by end-November, with gross shorts at a reported record high in that dataset. The implication is straightforward: if Europe gets a true cold shock—or a major outage—short covering could amplify price spikes. ^[25]

Russian gas phase-out: Europe is legislating a long-term LNG dependence

While day-to-day prices may hinge on wind and temperature, Europe’s longer-term story is policy-driven.

On Dec. 17, Reuters reported the European Parliament approved the EU plan to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027, with the agreement specifying a halt to Russian LNG imports by end‑2026 and pipeline gas by end‑September 2027 (pending final approval steps). ^[26]

This matters because it structurally increases Europe’s reliance on LNG—especially from the U.S.—even if the region continues adding renewables and trying to curb demand. ^[27]

Asia spot LNG: prices slide to a 20‑month low as demand stays soft

In global LNG, Asia is often the swing buyer. Right now, the swing looks… restrained.

A Reuters market wrap republished by Business Recorder reported spot LNG for February delivery into Northeast Asia around $9.50/MMBtu, described as roughly a 20‑month low, citing ample supply and subdued demand. ^[28]

The same update also pointed to a narrowing spread between Asia’s JKM and European pricing, with Europe’s LNG marker cited near $8.881/MMBtu in that report—tight spreads that reduce the incentive to chase the “best basin” and instead emphasize logistics, freight, and regas capacity. ^[29]

The China question is hanging over every 2026 LNG model

ING’s Dec. 20 analysis argued that China is “driving the weakness” in Asian LNG demand in 2025, citing factors including industrial softness, higher domestic production growth, and rising pipeline gas imports. ^[30]

Even if you disagree with every datapoint, the strategic point is hard to ignore: pipeline gas growth can displace LNG demand, and that changes global clearing prices when new LNG export trains arrive. ^[31]

The 2026 natural gas forecast debate: $4 or $5 for Henry Hub?

If 2025 was the year the market re-learned winter risk, 2026 is shaping up as the year of a new argument: how tight does the U.S. balance get once incremental LNG demand arrives—and how quickly does production respond?

EIA (STEO): Henry Hub averages about $4.01 in 2026

In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecasts Henry Hub at $4.01/MMBtu on average in 2026, with dry natural gas production around 109.11 Bcf/d and LNG exports averaging 16.3 Bcf/d. ^[32]

EIA also projects end-of-winter (end of March 2026) storage around 2,000 Bcf, reflecting an overall balance that is tighter than the ultra-loose periods of the last decade—but not necessarily “crisis tight.” ^[33]

Bernstein: “faith in five” and a $5 equilibrium thesis

A Bernstein outlook distributed via Investing.com on Dec. 20 argued it still “has faith in five,” framing $5/mcf Henry Hub as the new equilibrium after years nearer ~$3.50. The note emphasized demand growth led by LNG exports and power generation, claiming current U.S. LNG volumes are at record levels and “around 5 Bcf/d above a year ago.” ^[34]

On supply, Bernstein highlighted producer restraint—especially in Haynesville—arguing that depressed rig activity and lags between drilling and output mean much of 2026 supply is already “set” at lower levels, while Permian horizontal rig counts were noted as down about 20% from early-2025. ^[35]

Goldman Sachs: $4.60 in 2026 for U.S. gas; €29/MWh for TTF

In a separate 2026 commodities outlook, Reuters reported Goldman forecasts U.S. natural gas at $4.60/MMBtu for 2026 (and $3.80 for 2027), while projecting TTF at €29/MWh for 2026 (and €20 for 2027). ^[36]

Even though this was published Dec. 18, it’s still part of the active “current outlook stack” being referenced in market commentary on Dec. 20. ^[37]

The global macro overlay: trade flows and geopolitics are shifting the map

Two additional developments—while not Saturday headlines—remain directly relevant to price formation as of Dec. 20:

• Eastern Mediterranean supply: Reuters reported Israel approved a major gas supply deal to Egypt, describing up to $35 billion in gas supply from Leviathan to Egypt through 2040 (or until contract values are fulfilled), a flow that could influence Egypt’s LNG import needs over time. ^[38]
• Asia–U.S. LNG trade: Reuters columnist Clyde Russell reported Asia’s LNG imports from the U.S. are on track to fall in 2025 (to ~19.08 million tons from ~29.78 million in 2024), with China’s U.S. LNG imports down sharply—highlighting that geopolitics and tariffs can reroute cargoes even when “global gas” looks fungible on paper. ^[39]

What to watch next: the catalysts that can still move natural gas fast

Even with the curve signaling near-term comfort, natural gas remains one of the most headline-sensitive commodities. Here are the catalysts most likely to move prices coming out of Dec. 20:

1. Weather model risk (U.S., Europe, Northeast Asia)
   A shift from “mostly warmer than normal” to sustained cold can quickly flip demand expectations—especially in late December and January. ^[40]
2. LNG plant uptime and feedgas volatility
   With feedgas near record territory, even “small declines” can become big narratives if they persist—or if an outage hits a major facility during a cold snap. ^[41]
3. Storage trajectory into late winter
   The market is watching not just weekly withdrawals, but where inventories may land by March—because that determines the refill burden for summer 2026. ^[42]
4. Europe’s policy-driven demand for LNG
   Europe’s Russian gas phase-out timeline is becoming more defined, which raises the structural LNG “call” even if spot prices remain calm. ^[43]
5. Positioning and potential squeezes (TTF especially)
   Heavy speculative shorts can be tinder; all it takes is a spark—cold, outage, or geopolitical surprise. ^[44]

Bottom line for Dec. 20, 2025

As of 20.12.2025, the natural gas market is sending a mixed but coherent message:

• Near-term: Warmth and record output are keeping U.S. prices from breaking higher, even with LNG demand humming. ^[45]
• Mid-term (2026): Forecasts cluster around $4+ Henry Hub, but a credible camp is arguing for a structurally higher equilibrium closer to $5, especially if LNG growth keeps arriving faster than production responds. ^[46]
• Global: Asia’s weak spot LNG prices are currently acting as a cap on global gas exuberance, while Europe’s storage and policy path keep a risk premium lurking beneath the surface. ^[47]

References

1. www.tradingview.com, 2. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 3. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 4. www.brecorder.com, 5. www.eia.gov, 6. www.tradingview.com, 7. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 8. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 9. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 10. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 11. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 12. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 13. www.eia.gov, 14. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 15. www.eia.gov, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. lngprime.com, 19. lngprime.com, 20. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 21. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 22. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 23. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 24. lngprime.com, 25. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.brecorder.com, 29. www.brecorder.com, 30. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 31. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 32. www.eia.gov, 33. www.eia.gov, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.investing.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 41. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 42. www.eia.gov, 43. www.reuters.com, 44. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 45. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 46. www.eia.gov, 47. www.brecorder.com

Expected Support Test

Given recent low volatility, a pullback to test support near the 10-day average at $4,282 and rising, before a decisive advance, wouldn’t be surprising. Resistance has been seen near the completion of a 100% measured move at $4,356, which matches the price advance in the first measured move as marked on the chart. A failure of the 20-day average could see a test of support near the 20-day average, now at $4,234.

Upside Breakout Requirements

If the short-term trend high from this week can be exceeded, then a breakout to a new record high above $4,381 becomes a possibility. A 127.2% measured move projection first targets $4,454. Then, a 127.2% extension of the more recent bearish correction in October points to a potential initial upside target of $4,516. The extension target carries more weight as it is derived from a larger pattern.

Weekly Perspective

On the weekly timeframe, a weekly breakout triggered this week above last week’s high of $4,353, but it will not confirm today as the weekly close will likely be below that weekly high. This is consistent with the lack of bullish momentum and sideways movement recently, showing a lack of strong conviction from buyers.

Outlook

Gold’s multi-week uptrend stays intact above rising averages and trendlines, but persistent low volatility and an unconfirmed weekly breakout highlight absent buyer conviction. Expect a likely dip to the 10-day $4,282 or 20-day $4,234 before resolution; clearance of $4,375–$4,381 unlocks $4,454–$4,516, while loss of the 10-day raises short-term seller risk.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.