Created on September 18, 2026

The GBP/JPY pair, like so many others, is going to be waiting to see what the Japanese have to say during the press conference early Friday morning.

GBP/JPY

The British pound has fallen during the trading session here on Thursday as the Bank of England chose not to raise rates. Although the Bank of England sounded like they were still relatively hawkish, it looks like the markets do not believe it. As a result, the British pound has fallen against most currencies.

Overall, this is a market that continues to see questions asked of the Bank of Japan and what they may be doing at this juncture. After all, traders are trying to figure out whether or not they remain very hawkish, or if this is a one-and-done type of scenario.

The area just below current trading, right around the 206 yen level

This is a level that is important. It has been supported multiple times, and after all of this intervention that we have seen in the Japanese yen, this area is going to be watched very closely. After that, you have the ¥205 level. Anything below there, I think, solidifies the downtrend.

Overall, I think this is a scenario where the interest rate differential will continue to be a driver of this pair higher eventually. But we need to get through the Bank of Japan first, and we also need to see whether or not they blink. If they blink or sound like they are not completely dedicated to raising rates on a relatively steady basis, that could work against the value of the yen.

Holding this pair to the upside also pays you at the end of every day, and I think that is something that cannot be argued. It does not mean that it has to rally now, but I will be watching how it behaves after the announcement for the first few hours. If we can stay above ¥206, I think that is a good sign.

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Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The EURJPY pair activated with stochastic positivity by forming a new bullish rally, approaching the main barrier at 180.80, to settle below it, holding below this barrier makes us keep the bearish scenario, which might target 179.45 and 178.60 levels.

While breaching the current barrier and providing a daily close above it will provide a new chance for forming bullish waves, to target 181.50 and 182.10 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 179.45 and 180.80

Trend forecast: Bearish

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at Japan’s inflation data. Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 1.9% in August, while analysts expected that it would rise to 2.1%. Core Inflation Rate decreased from 1.8% to 1.7%, compared to analyst forecast of 1.8%. Inlation data served as an additional bearish catalyst for the yen.

If USD/JPY moves above the resistance at 158.00 – 158.50, it will head towards the resistance level at 160.00 – 160.50. On the support side, a move below the 156.50 level will open the way to the test of the support at 155.00 – 155.50.

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2026.09.18 2026.09.18
USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 18.09.26–25.09.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: once the correction has been completed, consider short positions below the level of 157.50 with a target of 151.76–148.92. A sell signal: the local correction ends and the price holds below 157.50. Stop Loss: above 158.10, Take Profit: 151.76–148.92.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 157.50 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 160.48–163.90. A buy signal: the level of 157.50 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 156.90, Take Profit: 160.48–163.90.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions below 157.50 with a target of 151.76–148.92 once the correction is completed.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above 157.50 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 160.48–163.90.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending third wave of larger degree 3 has formed, a downward correction has been completed as the fourth wave 4, and the fifth wave 5 is developing. Apparently, the first wave of smaller degree (1) of 5 has formed and a bearish correction (2) of 5 is developing on the daily chart. On the H4 time frame, wave A of (2) is developing, within which wave iii of A has been completed and a local correction iv of A is nearing completion. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to decline to 151.76–148.92 after the correction ends. The level of 157.50 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 160.48–163.90.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time. 

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

2026.09.18 2026.09.18
EUR/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 18.09.26–25.09.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 1.1450 with a target of 1.1790–1.2088. A buy signal: the price holds above 1.1450. Stop Loss: below 1.1405, Take Profit: 1.1790–1.2088.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 1.1450 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.1350–1.1230. A sell signal: the level of 1.1450 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 1.1495, Take Profit: 1.1350–1.1230.

Main Scenario

Consider long positions from corrections above 1.1450 with a target of 1.1790–1.2088.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation below 1.1450 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 1.1350–1.1230.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree B is developing, with wave (A) of B forming as its part. On the daily time frame, the third wave 3 of (A) is apparently unfolding. Within it, wave i of 3 has formed, a bearish corrective wave ii of 3 has been completed, and wave iii of 3 has started developing. On the H4 time frame, the first wave of smaller degree (i) of iii has formed, and a local correction has presumably ended as the second wave (ii) of iii. If the presumption is correct, EUR/USD will continue to rise to 1.1790–1.2088. The level of 1.1450 is critical in this scenario. A breakout below it will allow the pair to continue falling to the levels of 1.1350–1.1230.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time. 

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode

The GBPJPY pair failed in confirming breaking 208.10 level, which forces it to activate the bullish corrective trend, to surpass 209.45 level and recording extra gains by its rally towards 210.30.

Note that stability below 210.40 supports the continuation of the negativity in the upcoming trading. The price might be affected by the instability until gathering extra negative momentum, to repeat the pressure attempts on 208.10 barrier to find an exit to reach the negative stations, which might extend to 206.85.

The expected trading range for today is between 208.10 and 210.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Swings after Fed Hike and BoE Hold

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate experienced a volatile session on Thursday as the latest interest rate decisions from the US and UK central banks sent ripples through currency markets.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3380, little changed from the start of the day after earlier dropping to a seven-week low.

The US Dollar (USD) slipped back slightly on Thursday after surging to a seven-week high against the Pound (GBP) on Wednesday evening following the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision.

The Fed unanimously opted to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023, taking the Fed funds rate to 4%.

Although the move had been widely anticipated, the unanimous vote and hawkish tone from policymakers gave the US Dollar a boost.

The Pound managed to claw back some ground from its multi-week lows on Thursday, although gains remained constrained ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest interest rate decision.

Sterling then endured a choppy response to the announcement, initially tumbling to a fresh multi-week low before recovering its losses.

The BoE opted to leave interest rates unchanged, with policymakers voting six to three to hold.

While this outcome broadly matched market expectations, the decision was viewed as slightly dovish.

However, the BoE also flagged concerns over upside risks to inflation linked to the ongoing war in Iran, helping to cushion the Pound’s decline.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Could UK Retail Sales Weigh on the Pound?

Looking to the end of the week, the latest UK retail sales figures could provide a fresh catalyst for GBP movement.

Economists expect sales growth to fall by 0.2% in August, following a 0.5% contraction in July.

A result in line with forecasts would point to another decline in consumer spending, potentially raising further concerns about the health of the UK economy and putting pressure on GBP.

Across the Atlantic, a modest increase in US industrial production for August could offer some support to USD.

The GBP/USD exchange rate may also remain sensitive to shifts in risk appetite.

A deterioration in sentiment could drive demand for the safe-haven Dollar, while leaving the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound vulnerable.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

GBP/USD struggles around a 6-week low ahead of the BoE rate decision

GBP/USD has fallen to a six-week low, with a stronger dollar following the hawkish Fed hike, as attention turns to the Bank of England’s interest rate decision at 12:00 BST today.

The central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, where they have been since December last year.

The decision comes as inflation has risen to 3.1%, but service sector inflation and underlying inflation remained unchanged in August. The labour market is weakening, which is also helping to offset some of the inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict.

The question is how long the Bank of England will be able to maintain this stance, given that oil and gas prices are rising sharply and are now above the adverse scenario set out by the central bank in July.

Therefore, officials are expected to set the stage for a hike in November, which could be the first of several.

The vote is expected to be 3-6-3 in favour of holding, the same as in July. A more hawkish vote could help to support the pound.

The meeting comes after the Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25 basis points and adopted a hawkish stance at its meeting yesterday, lifting the U.S. dollar to a six-week high.

The 25-basis-point hike to 3.75%-4.00% was forecast. The dot plot points to at least one more rate hike this year.

GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis

GBP/USD broke down below the ascending channel, taking out the 200 EMA and falling to 1.3380. This, combined with the RSI below 50, keeps sellers hopeful of further downside.

Attention will turn to 1.3340, the horizontal support, and 1.3270, the July low. A break below here opens the door to the 1.3200 support zone.

On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200 EMA at 1.3430, with a rise above here exposing the 50 EMA at 1.3490. Should buyers rise above 1.3500, this would create a higher high towards 1.3650.

USD/JPY in focus after a hawkish Fed hike ahead of the BoJ meeting

USD/JPY jumped to a two-week high above 156.00 on Wednesday, before easing back slightly to 158.0 at the time of writing.

The jump came following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish hike, lifting the U.S. dollar to a six-week high.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and delivered its first hike since 2023. However, policymakers also lifted their inflation and growth forecasts, while the dot plot pointed to more hikes this year.

Sixteen of 18 policymakers supported at least one more rate hike this year, with four of those supporting two more rate hikes.

This has prompted markets to price in three additional hikes by the middle of next year.

Attention is now turning to the Bank of Japan, and the hawkish Fed position threatens to keep the U.S.-Japan rate gap wide, even as the Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates as well this week.

The yen weakened by around 1% overnight in the wake of the Fed move. This reversal comes after a sharp rally earlier this month, fuelled by expectations of intervention, faster BoJ monetary policy tightening and the unwinding of some yen-funded carry trades.

For the yen to remain supported, the BoJ will not only need to hike rates but also deliver a hawkish message in order to limit the damage to the currency. Failure to do so, and a disappointment from the BoJ, could see the 160 level come back into focus.

A 25-basis-point rate hike is almost fully priced in, meaning that the focus is firmly on BoJ Governor Ueda’s post-decision conference for clues over the pace of additional tightening.

Should the yen weaken back towards the 160 level, it could put intervention risk back on the table.

USD/JPY forecast – technical analysis

USD/JPY’s recovery from the 153.00 low has run into resistance at the 156.30 level. The price still trades below its 50, 100 and 200 EMAs in a bearish picture.

Buyers would need to extend the recovery above the 200 EMA at 157.80 and the 50 EMA at 158.20 to put the price on a firmer footing. From here, attention would turn to the 160 resistance zone.

Support is seen at 155.40, with a break below here opening the door to 154.65 before attention would turn back towards 153.00.

Traders also had a chance to take a look at the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report indicated that 196,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 208,000. The job market stays strong, which is bullish for the American currency.

In case U.S. Dollar Index stays above the psychologically important 100.00 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range. On the support side, a move below the 99.85 level will open the way to the test of the support at 99.25 – 99.40.

There is no change to the pair’s bearish path, as it continues to post repeated negative closes below the 210.40 barrier. The price is currently showing temporary sideways trading around 208.80, affected by conflicting signals from the main indicators, particularly as the Stochastic indicator approaches the 80 level.

We will continue to wait for the price to gather negative momentum during the upcoming trading sessions, which would enable it to form new bearish waves targeting the 208.10 level. A break below this level would confirm the next bearish target at 206.85.

The expected trading range for today is between 208.10 and 209.60

Trend forecast: Bearish