Platinum price formed several negative waves yesterday, benefiting from the alignment of the main indicators in providing negative momentum. As a result, the price has now reached the first target at $1,655.00, which has recently acted as an obstacle to further bearish movement.

The price may be forced to move sideways for a period in the short term. However, the continued presence of negative factors encourages expectations of a break below the current barrier, which would strengthen the chances of reaching additional bearish targets starting at $1,605.00 and then $1,565.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1,605.00 and $1,745.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate traded modestly higher on Friday after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, while markets also absorbed the fallout from Andy Burnham’s landslide Makerfield by-election victory.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading around €1.1542, up 0.2% on the day as investors weighed the Bank’s policy outlook against the prospect of renewed political uncertainty following Burnham’s return to Westminster. Burnham’s victory has intensified speculation over a potential challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) came under modest pressure following the Bank of England’s latest policy announcement.

As widely expected, policymakers voted 7-2 to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%.

Investors focused on the Bank’s updated assessment of inflation, with policymakers noting that lower energy prices and the easing of geopolitical tensions have reduced some of the upside risks to inflation.

This led markets to conclude that there is less immediate pressure on the Bank to tighten monetary policy further.

Sterling’s losses were partially limited by stronger-than-expected UK labour market data released earlier in the day.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell, while wage growth accelerated beyond forecasts, helping to reinforce the resilience of the labour market despite signs of softer economic growth elsewhere.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) gained ground against Sterling despite facing pressure from a stronger US Dollar.

The single currency remained constrained by the Euro’s inverse relationship with the Greenback following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish policy guidance.

However, EUR sentiment was supported by the signing of an interim peace agreement between the US and Iran.

The agreement includes provisions aimed at restoring energy exports through the Strait of Hormuz and establishing a framework for broader negotiations over the coming months.

Lower energy prices are viewed as particularly beneficial for the Eurozone economy, given the region’s heavy reliance on imported energy supplies.

Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: BoE Outlook Remains Key for Sterling

Investors will continue to assess the implications of the Bank of England’s latest policy decision after policymakers voted to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%.

While the Bank acknowledged that easing energy prices and reduced geopolitical tensions have lowered some inflation risks, stronger-than-expected wage growth and a resilient labour market may encourage policymakers to remain cautious about signalling future policy easing.

As a result, Sterling could remain supported if markets conclude that UK interest rates are likely to stay elevated for longer than previously anticipated.

For the Euro, investors will continue to monitor comments from European Central Bank policymakers for clues regarding the outlook for monetary policy.

Lower energy prices remain supportive for the Eurozone economy, although the single currency may struggle to gain significant traction if the US Dollar remains underpinned by expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance.

With central bank policy expectations continuing to drive market sentiment, GBP/EUR is likely to remain sensitive to interest rate developments on both sides of the Channel.

– Written by


Minesh Chaudhari

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Slides After Fed and BoE Hold Rates

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has fallen sharply to 1.3230, its weakest level in several weeks, as investors responded positively to the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance while remaining cautious over the UK outlook. Although both the Federal Reserve and Bank of England left interest rates unchanged, markets interpreted the Fed’s message as relatively supportive for the Dollar while the Bank of England’s prolonged pause reinforced concerns over UK growth prospects.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Dollar Strength Reasserts Itself

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has fallen back sharply after a volatile week dominated by central bank decisions, slipping below the key 1.3300 level as the US Dollar gained broad support.

The Federal Reserve and Bank of England both left interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, but the market reaction proved markedly different for the two currencies.

According to BBH; “We expect GBP/USD to fall to 1.3100, reflecting a stronger US growth outlook relative to the UK.”

While no immediate policy changes were announced, investors focused on guidance from the Federal Reserve and new Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting.

Danske Bank commented; “We do not expect firm forward guidance from Kevin Warsh regarding future rate moves. We expect the distribution of individual rate views and inflation forecasts to shift higher from March across the rest of the FOMC, while growth and unemployment rate forecasts will remain steadier.”

The Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance but stopped short of pushing back aggressively against market expectations that rates may need to remain restrictive for longer.

According to MUFG; “Sentiment has clearly improved for the dollar based on US factors like a more resilient labour market. So, this goes some way to explaining the resilience of the US dollar this week despite the continued sharp falls in crude oil prices.”

The stronger Dollar tone has been reinforced by recent economic releases. Non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations while inflation data has remained elevated enough to keep discussions of further tightening alive.

ING commented; “The view that the Fed will react to this inflation shock has been central to the dollar’s recovery over the last month.”

The bank added; “US real interest rates have risen sharply over recent weeks and that has provided a strong underpinning for the US dollar.”

The Bank of England also left rates unchanged at 3.75%, as expected.

While there were dissenting votes in favour of a hike, the overall tone of the meeting reinforced the view that policymakers are prepared to wait for further evidence before tightening policy.

Recent UK inflation data has been softer than expected, reducing pressure for immediate action. Markets are now much less confident that the BoE will deliver multiple rate hikes this year.

This shift has undermined one of Sterling’s key sources of support over recent months.

The Bank continues to face difficult trade-offs between slowing economic activity and the risk that higher energy prices could eventually feed into broader inflation pressures.

Politics is also becoming a larger influence on the Pound outlook.

The Makerfield by-election remains a major event risk, particularly given speculation that a strong result could increase pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

BBH commented; “The UK political backdrop can amplify a GBP decline, with Thursday’s Makerfield by-election a key event risk. Polls show Andy Burnham leading Reform UK by anywhere from 3 to 12 points, potentially clearing a path for a leadership challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer.”

It added; “A Burnham-led Labour government will likely lead to more spending and borrowing, worsening UK fiscal credibility.”

Investors remain sensitive to any developments that could alter perceptions of future UK fiscal policy, especially at a time when government borrowing costs remain elevated.

The combination of a resilient US economy, firm US yields, expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a hawkish bias and ongoing UK political uncertainty has shifted momentum in favour of the Dollar.

GBP/USD has now broken below the 1.3300 area that previously provided support in May. If selling pressure persists, markets will increasingly focus on the next major support zone around 1.3160.

For Sterling to recover meaningfully, investors will likely need to see a deterioration in US economic data, a less hawkish Federal Reserve outlook or a reduction in UK political uncertainty over the coming weeks.

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The shape of the candlestick is starting to look pretty negative, so I think if we break down below the Thursday candlestick, that opens up a move down to 0.57. Breaking the Wednesday candlestick is probably what really starts to accelerate things. Keep in mind, though, Friday is Juneteenth in the United States, so liquidity could be an issue. Certainly, looks like we’re favoring the dollar in the US, though.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Euro has tried to rally on Wednesday, but continues to see overhead resistance, as we are looking at a market that has no real clarity.

EUR/USD

The Euro has run to the upside initially during the trading session on Wednesday, only to turn around and show signs of weakness.

That being said, the EUR/USD market is likely to continue to be very noisy. I think ultimately, we have to ask some questions of the 200-day EMA, which is where we stalled, and then I think you have to ask questions about the interest rate markets and really what is going on there.

Macroeconomic Factors and Technical Ranges

Because, quite frankly, the interest rate markets, specifically the 10-year yield in the United States, have been drifting a little bit during the trading session on Wednesday, yet again, as traders are trying to price in the idea of free travel through the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East. After all, a lot of what had been priced in was energy inflation.

That being said, during the interest rate decision and following press conference, the Europeans this week did suggest something along the lines of a downturn in the economy, and I think ultimately you have a scenario where the US Dollar will strengthen eventually.

We are close to the middle of the overall consolidation range, with the 1.14 level underneath being a major floor and the 1.1850 level being a major ceiling. As we are right in the middle, I think you would see a reaction.

Keep in mind Friday is Juneteenth in the United States, so liquidity will all but disappear pretty quickly once we get through the Asian session and the Europeans on Friday. We will just drift into the weekend. I just don’t think there’s any real understanding of what’s going on in the Middle East for people to put big bets on right now.

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Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The pair’s price maintained its position below the firm resistance at 215.50 during yesterday’s trading, forcing it to form several corrective waves by targeting the 213.15 level, before attempting to stabilize again above the initial support level located at 213.50.

The proposed scenario for today’s trading depends on the strength of the initial support. Holding above it will give the price an opportunity to renew the bullish attempts and reach some positive targets starting from 214.50 and 215.10 respectively. However, closing negatively below it will strengthen the dominance of the downward corrective bias, forcing the price to incur additional losses by moving toward 212.75 and 212.00 respectively.

The expected trading range for today is between 213.50 and 215.10

Trend forecast: Bullish

The pair’s price did not hold for long above the firm barrier at 185.80, affected by the negative US data, which forced it to postpone the bullish attack and form negative corrective waves, targeting the 184.60 level.

We highlight the importance of maintaining trading above the additional support level located at 184.20, as this would enhance the chances of the price renewing its bullish attempts by moving soon toward 185.50 and then resuming pressure on the previously mentioned barrier. However, a decline below the support and a negative close would force the price to incur additional losses, initially moving toward 183.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 184.35 and 185.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

recovers to 1.33 ahead of BoE decision, but upside may be limited. at a 2-month high on hawkish Fed hold.

GBP/USD Recovers Ahead of BoE Decision, but Upside May Be Limited

GBP/USD has recovered from the two-month low of 1.3260 reached yesterday and is trading back above 1.3300. However, the recovery could prove limited given the broader fundamental backdrop.

Comments from President Trump regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have helped pull oil prices below $75 per barrel, prompting some profit-taking in the U.S. dollar following the overnight rally sparked by the Federal Reserve.

The Fed left unchanged but removed its easing bias. In addition, nine of the 18 policymakers now expect a rate hike this year, reflecting a hawkish tilt that could continue to support the U.S. dollar.

Attention is now turning to the Bank of England rate decision, where policymakers are widely expected to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting. The focus will be firmly on the vote split and any changes in the policy outlook.

The backdrop facing the BoE has shifted materially since its previous meeting. The U.S.-Iran peace agreement, falling oil prices, softer-than-expected inflation and signs of a cooling economy have all reduced pressure on policymakers to tighten policy further.

Oil prices are now around 30% below the levels seen at the previous BoE meeting, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation. Meanwhile, UK came in at 2.8%, below expectations and below March’s 3.3% peak. Inflation is also running below the Bank’s February projections, giving policymakers greater flexibility.

At the same time, growth remains weak. UK contracted by 0.1% in April and labour market conditions continue to soften, reinforcing the case for a cautious approach.

As a result, investors expect the BoE to leave rates unchanged today. The key question is whether softer inflation and weaker growth have persuaded some MPC members to abandon calls for further tightening, resulting in a more dovish vote split.

GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis

GBP/USD faced rejection at the 200-day SMA and broke below its symmetrical triangle pattern, falling to a two-month low at 1.3260. Combined with an RSI below 50, the technical picture continues to favour sellers.

Bears will look to break below 1.3260, the June low, exposing the 1.3200 support level. Below here, the 1.3000-1.3200 support zone comes into focus.

Any recovery would first need to reclaim 1.3340 before bringing the 200-day SMA at 1.3420 into focus. Above here, the 50-day SMA at 1.3475 becomes the next target. A move above 1.3500 would improve the broader outlook and bring 1.3600 into view.

DXY at a 2-Month High After a hawkish Fed Hold

The U.S. dollar rallied sharply in the previous session, reaching a two-and-a-half-month high of 100.55 after the Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold.

While the dollar has eased slightly from those highs amid profit-taking and improving sentiment surrounding the U.S.-Iran peace agreement, the broader outlook remains supported by the Fed’s shift in tone.

The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% as expected and removed its easing bias. More significantly, nine of the 18 policymakers now expect a rate hike this year, highlighting growing concern over persistent inflation pressures.

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has also signalled a tougher stance on inflation and launched a review of how the central bank communicates policy, marking the beginning of a potentially more hawkish era for the Fed.

Markets have now fully priced in a Fed rate increase by October, supporting Treasury yields and underpinning the U.S. dollar.

DXY Forecast – Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index has recovered from the May low at 97.60, rising to a high of 100.57. The index continues to trade above its rising trendline, as well as the 20-day, 50-day and 200-day SMAs.

Combined with an RSI above 50, the technical picture remains supportive of further gains.

Buyers will need to break above 100.60, a level that capped gains in March, to target 101.00 and then 102.00, the May 2025 high.

Support can be seen at 99.50, where horizontal support, the 20-day SMA and the rising trendline converge. Below here, the 50-day SMA at 99.00 and the 200-day SMA at 98.70 come into focus. A break below these levels would expose the May 2026 low at 97.60.

Original Post

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Pending Home Sales report for May. The report indicated that Pending Home Sales grew by +3.8% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +0.8%.

Better-than-expected reports provided support to the American currency. However, traders stay cautious as they wait for Fed decision and first comments from new Fed Chair Warsh.

A successful test of the resistance at 99.70 – 99.85 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range.

EUR/USD Pulls Back Ahead Of Fed Decision