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25
03, 2026
Bullish Momentum Intact As Pair Holds Below Critical 159.00 Resistance
25
03, 2026
Bullish bias remains intact in near term
Following the bearish action seen in the first half of the day on Tuesday, EUR/USD staged a decisive rebound in the American session to end the day virtually unchanged. The pair fluctuates in a narrow channel at around 1.1600 in the European session on Wednesday as investors await clarity regarding the Middle East conflict.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.61% | -0.30% | 0.51% | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.24% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | -0.12% | 0.22% | 1.01% | 0.88% | 0.51% | 0.75% | |
| GBP | 0.61% | 0.12% | 0.28% | 1.13% | 1.02% | 0.63% | 0.80% | |
| JPY | 0.30% | -0.22% | -0.28% | 0.78% | 0.69% | 0.27% | 0.44% | |
| CAD | -0.51% | -1.01% | -1.13% | -0.78% | -0.09% | -0.51% | -0.27% | |
| AUD | -0.40% | -0.88% | -1.02% | -0.69% | 0.09% | -0.39% | -0.23% | |
| NZD | -0.01% | -0.51% | -0.63% | -0.27% | 0.51% | 0.39% | 0.17% | |
| CHF | -0.24% | -0.75% | -0.80% | -0.44% | 0.27% | 0.23% | -0.17% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Israeli Channel 12 claimed late Tuesday that a one-month ceasefire in the United States’ and Israel’s war against Iran could be announced in accordance with the mechanism developed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Other reporting on the matter suggested that the proposal is complex and has 15 points that need to be agreed upon for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened. The framework of the proposal is said to be negotiated during the ceasefire period. The US Dollar (USD) came under bearish pressure with the immediate reaction to this headline and helped EUR/USD gather recovery momentum.
Nevertheless, investors remain cautious with the Iranian side dismissing the claims of negotiations. Additionally, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said early Wednesday that they had fired missiles at Israel as well as military bases hosting US forces in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain.
Meanwhile, “the case for action becomes stronger when deviations from our inflation target grow larger and more persistent,” European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday. This comment seems to be further supporting the Euro.
In the absence of high-tier data releases, investors will continue to pay close attention to fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. In case markets grow increasingly optimistic about the sides reaching a ceasefire to negotiate the terms of a potential agreement, risk flows could dominate the action in financial markets and allow EUR/USD to push higher. On the other hand, Oil prices could rise again and trigger another bout of flight to safety if Iran rejects any attempts to end the conflict. In this scenario, EUR/USD could lose its traction.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1605. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as price holds above the rising 20- and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and has reclaimed the 100-period SMA near 1.1563, suggesting buyers are gaining control despite the longer-term 200-period SMA still capping the broader trend near 1.1700. Bollinger Bands flatten with spot trading in the upper half of the envelope, indicating firm but not overstretched upside pressure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 reinforces a positive momentum backdrop rather than overbought conditions.
Immediate support emerges at 1.1530, reinforced by the nearby 50-period SMA, with further downside protection at 1.1500 ahead of the more distant 1.1460 level. On the topside, initial resistance stands at 1.1630, aligning with the upper Bollinger Bank, ahead of the static level at 1.1670 and the 200-period SMA in the 1.1690-1.1700 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
(The story was corrected on March 25 at 09:40 GMT to say that the Israeli Channel 12’s claim about a possible ceasefire is for a one-month period, not for 12 months, and corrected again at 10:35 GMT to fix the misspelling of Steve Witkoff.)
25
03, 2026
The GBPJPY repeats the positive fluctuation– Forecast today – 25-3-2026
The GBPJPY pair repeats the attempts of forming bullish waves, taking advantage of its stability within the minor bullish channel’s levels that appear in the above image, besides the continuation of forming an extra support at 212.00 level, to rally towards 213.20 in this morning trading.
The price needs a new bullish momentum, which allows it to surpass the intraday barrier at 213.30, opening the way towards the main bullish stations that are located near 214.05 reaching to 215.2, while changing the main trend is represented by the attempt of breaking the bullish channel’s support at 211.40.
The expected trading range for today is between 212.10 and 214.05
Trend forecast: Bullish
25
03, 2026
Holds gains above confluence around 184.00
EUR/JPY remains stronger for the fourth consecutive trading day, hovering around 184.30 during the Asian session on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows the spot is rising above the upper boundary of a descending triangle, which typically signals a bullish reversal. However, low volumes suggest a lack of conviction from buyers. Traders will likely look for strong volume confirmation to validate the breakout and avoid false signals.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 stays above its midline and confirms improving momentum rather than overbought conditions, suggesting buyers retain control after the recent consolidation.
The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the EUR/JPY cross holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while the nine-day average rises above it, indicating short-term upside pressure within an established uptrend. The currency cross may explore the region around the all-time high of 186.88, reached on January 23.
On the downside, the immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 183.77. A return to the descending triangle would expose the 50-day EMA support at 183.28. Further declines below the medium-term average would revive the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the area around the lower boundary of the descending triangle around 181.60, followed by the three-month low of 180.81, recorded on February 12.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.33% | 0.21% | 0.14% | |
| EUR | -0.03% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.03% | 0.30% | 0.17% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.02% | -0.00% | 0.27% | 0.16% | 0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.06% | -0.06% | -0.02% | -0.00% | 0.26% | 0.14% | 0.07% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.27% | 0.16% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.33% | -0.30% | -0.27% | -0.26% | -0.27% | -0.11% | -0.19% | |
| NZD | -0.21% | -0.17% | -0.16% | -0.14% | -0.16% | 0.11% | -0.08% | |
| CHF | -0.14% | -0.10% | -0.08% | -0.07% | -0.08% | 0.19% | 0.08% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
25
03, 2026
Bulls Eye 160.00 As Pair Stages Powerful Rebound Toward 159.00
24
03, 2026
GBP/USD Forecast: Weak UK Growth Weighs on Pound Sterling
– Written by
Frank Davies
STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Weak UK Growth Weighs on Pound Sterling
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate softened on Tuesday following the release of downbeat UK business activity data.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3401, down approximately 0.2% from the day’s opening levels.
The Pound slipped as investors reacted to the UK’s latest flash PMI readings, which pointed to a notable slowdown in private sector growth.
Figures from S&P Global indicated that although output continued to rise, the pace of expansion eased significantly, with the composite index dropping from 53.7 to 51, its weakest reading since September.
The data underscored the growing strain on UK businesses as the Middle East conflict feeds through to the domestic economy. Rising energy costs have pushed up operating expenses, while softer demand has weighed on overall activity.
This combination presents a difficult challenge for the Bank of England, which must contend with mounting inflationary pressures without further undermining economic growth.
The US Dollar strengthened, with renewed geopolitical uncertainty boosting demand for the safe-haven currency.
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Market nerves were rattled after Iranian officials pushed back against claims from US President Donald Trump that recent discussions between the two nations had been constructive.
Warnings that disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could persist for months also unsettled investors.
These concerns helped underpin the US Dollar as investors sought shelter from the uncertainty.
Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Inflation Data in Focus
The next key driver for the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is likely to be the release of the UK’s latest inflation figures.
While the data may already feel somewhat outdated given the recent surge in energy prices, a reading that remains well above the Bank of England’s 2% target could reinforce expectations that policymakers may need to maintain a more hawkish stance and potentially offer some support to Sterling.
With little in the way of US data scheduled, the direction of the US Dollar is likely to remain closely tied to developments in the Middle East, where ongoing uncertainty continues to favour safe-haven demand.
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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts
24
03, 2026
Bullish pressure wanes ahead of US PMI data
EUR/USD reversed its direction following a bearish opening to the week and closed in positive territory on Monday. The pair stays in a consolidation phase below 1.1600 on Tuesday as investors await Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from the US, while keeping a close eye on headlines coming out of the Middle East.
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.28% | 0.36% | 0.19% | 0.17% | 0.80% | 0.71% | 0.14% | |
| EUR | -0.28% | 0.05% | -0.07% | -0.11% | 0.50% | 0.42% | -0.14% | |
| GBP | -0.36% | -0.05% | -0.13% | -0.16% | 0.45% | 0.38% | -0.19% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | 0.07% | 0.13% | -0.01% | 0.60% | 0.51% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | -0.17% | 0.11% | 0.16% | 0.01% | 0.61% | 0.52% | -0.03% | |
| AUD | -0.80% | -0.50% | -0.45% | -0.60% | -0.61% | -0.08% | -0.67% | |
| NZD | -0.71% | -0.42% | -0.38% | -0.51% | -0.52% | 0.08% | -0.56% | |
| CHF | -0.14% | 0.14% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.67% | 0.56% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Improving risk mood weighed on the US Dollar (USD) on Monday and helped EUR/USD gather bullish momentum after US President Donald Trump announced that they will postpone any military strikes against Iran’s power plants following “good and productive conversations.”
However, contradicting remarks from the Iranian side caused markets to turn cautious. Iran’s foreign ministry said that there was “no dialogue” between Tehran and Washington, while the White House acknowledged that the situation was “fluid” and added that “speculation about meetings should not be deemed as final until they are formally announced by the White House.” Highlighting the negative shift in risk mood, US stock index futures were last seen losing about 0.3% on the day.
On Tuesday, the data from Germany showed that the Composite PMI declined to 51.9 in March’s flash estimate from 53.2 in February, reflecting a loss of growth momentum in the private sector’s business activity. Similarly, the Composite PMI for the Eurozone fell to 50.5 from 51.9 in this period.
Assessing the sruvey’s findings, “the flash Eurozone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth,” said Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Later in the day, the details of the US PMI surveys will be scrutinized by market participants. In case the publication highlights rising input costs because of high energy prices, the immediate reaction could support the USD and force EUR/USD to stay on the back foot.
Conversely, EUR/USD could turn north again, if risk flows return to markets, with Iran and US officially confirming ongoing negotiations to end the conflict and open the Strait of Hormuz.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1582. The near-term bias is mildly bullish as the pair holds above the rising 20-period and 50-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), while remaining close to the 100-period SMA. Bollinger Bands have started to contracting as the price is retreating toward the mid-line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in the mid-50s, consistent with a bullish outlook that lacks momentum.
Immediate support sits at 1.1570 (100-period SMA), ahead of 1.1530-1.1520 (static level, 50-period SMA) and 1.1500 (static level, round level). On the upside, resistance is located near 1.1640, which coincides with the upper Bollinger Band, before 1.1670 (static level) and 1.1700 (200-period SMA).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
24
03, 2026
The GBPJPY achieves the initial target– Forecast today – 24-3-2026
The GBPJPY pair confirmed the stability of the bullish scenario, due to its stability within the minor bullish channel’s levels, to form some bullish waves, to record the initial target by reaching 213.30 level, to rebound temporarily to settle near 212.50.
The stability above the bullish channel’s support towards 211.30, besides providing positive momentum by the main indicators makes us keep the bullish scenario, which might target 214.05 reaching 215.20 level to reach the current channel’s resistance.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.05 and 212.10
Trend forecast: Bullish
24
03, 2026
The EURJPY without any news– Forecast today – 24-3-2026
The EURJPY pair remains affected by the stability of the barrier at 184.20, which obstructs the attempts of reaching new positive stations by its stability, to form new sideways fluctuations by its stability near 183.75.
Note that the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators, by the attempt of forming additional support at 183.35 level, these factors make us wait for breaching the barrier and holding above it, to confirm its readiness to record new gains that might begin at 184.80 and 185.45.
The expected trading range for today is between 183.40 and 184.80
Trend forecast: Bullish
24
03, 2026
Advances to 158.75 amid bullish technical setup
The USD/JPY pair attracts some dip-buyers following the previous day’s pullback of around 165 pips from the vicinity of its highest level since July 2024, and climbs to the 158.75-158.80 region during the Asian session on Tuesday.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens in reaction to soft inflation figures, which showed that the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell below the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) 2% target and to its lowest level since March 2022. The data further dampens hopes for an immediate interest rate hike by the central bank amid concerns that the war-driven surge in energy prices could weaken Japan’s economic growth.
Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainties stemming from conflicts in the Middle East continue to fuel inflation fears, curbing bets for further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, which, along with the risk of a further escalation of the Iran war, benefits the US Dollar’s (USD) reserve currency status and supports the USD/JPY pair.
Spot prices once again showed some resilience below the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, and the subsequent move up favors bullish traders. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has slipped marginally below the signal line around the zero mark, with a flat histogram, suggesting fading upside momentum rather than a decisive shift in trend.
Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 48 stays close to its midline, reinforcing a consolidative tone within an overall upward context. Nevertheless, the near-term bias is mildly bullish as the USD/JPY pair holds above the 100-period EMA on the 4-hour chart, near 158.20, which keeps the broader uptrend structure intact.
In the meantime, initial support emerges at 158.20 from the 100-period EMA, followed by 157.65, where the latest downswing stalled. A break below 157.65 would expose deeper retracement levels toward the mid-157.00s. On the topside, immediate resistance stands at 159.30, aligned with recent intraday highs, with a break opening the way to 159.80 and the 160.00 psychological barrier.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.