The interest rate outlook in Japan remains tilted towards further tightening. The producer prices are high, import costs are increasing and bond yields are rising. These factors suggest another BOJ rate hike. But the central bank might still wait for the clear signals from wages and consumer inflation. A rate hike from 1% to 1.25% could be on the cards later this year if energy prices remain elevated and the yen remains weak.
If BOJ hints at a rate hike in October or at the end of the year, the yen could get some support. But the technical picture of USDJPY, GBPJPY and EURJPY remains bullish. A break above 163.70 in USDJPY would open the door for a rally to 175. GBPJPY might push higher towards 220 and EURJPY could head to 190.50.
Overall Trend: Bearish in the medium term, with temporary corrective recovery attempts.
Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1355 – 1.1325 – 1.1200
Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1450 – 1.1500 – 1.1565
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
Buy scenario (with corrective bounce): Buy from the support level of 1.1370, targeting 1.1500, with a stop loss order activated below 1.1320.
Sell scenario (with the main trend): Sell from the resistance level of 1.1500, targeting 1.1400, with a stop loss order activated above 1.1550.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today
The overall technical picture remains clearly tilted in favor of the sellers, as the EUR/USD pair continues to register lower highs and lower lows across the best trusted trading platforms, reflecting the persistence of the negative trend in the medium term. The currency pair is also moving below its major moving averages, which all take a bearish slope, signaling that selling pressures remain dominant in the market.
This comes amid the continued strength of the US Dollar, supported by expectations that US interest rates will remain high, contrasted with the ongoing pressure on the European currency.
On the shorter timeframe, the price is moving within a technical formation resembling a rising wedge pattern, which is a pattern that often warns of a resumption of the bearish trend after its completion. Although the pattern has not completed perfectly, any clear and sustained break of the support line could open the way for a new downward wave targeting a retest of the lows recorded during June, with the potential extension of the decline to lower levels.
From a technical standpoint for the EUR/USD, the 1.1355 level, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave that began in April 2025, represents the first major support zone to watch. It is followed closely by the 1.1325 level. If this level is lost, selling pressures could accelerate toward the psychological support at 1.1200, which is a pivotal support area that has proven its importance several times since the volatility that followed the tariff announcements in April 2025.
On the positive-bullish side, the pair still faces strong resistance near the 1.1450 level, which has succeeded in capping upward attempts during recent sessions. The 1.1480 zone emerges as the next resistance, while both 1.1500 and 1.1565 represent potential targets should buyers manage to regain control and push prices above those levels.
Technically, momentum indicators support the negative outlook, despite signs of diminishing intensity in selling pressures. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen from oversold areas but continues to move below the 50 level near 42 points, indicating that positive momentum remains limited. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator has registered a limited bullish crossover with the signal line, but it is still moving below levels that confirm a trend reversal, indicating a weakening of selling momentum rather than the start of a new upward trend.
Based on these data, the technical outlook remains biased toward the continuation of the bearish trend, with the sell-on-rallies scenario being the most likely unless the pair succeeds in breaking through the major resistance levels and closing above them clearly.
The currency pair is not anticipating major US economic releases today except for the announcement of the weekly initial jobless claims. On the European side, the German trade balance figures and the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting minutes will be announced.
EUR/USD Forecast Summary:
Overall, the main trend remains bearish as long as the EUR/USD pair stays below the 1.1480-1.1500 area. Any current upward movement is likely to be a correction unless the price manages to close above this area on a daily basis.
Trading Advice:
The EUR/USD price today may remain within its current sideways range until major economic catalysts emerge. Regardless of your investment conviction to buy or sell, adhering to strict risk management and position sizing is your only key to staying in the market.
The US Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is trading around 161.70 after reaching a July high above 162.80, leaving the Japanese currency close to multi-decade lows.
Crédit Agricole believes the risks remain tilted towards further USD/JPY gains, with the median outcome from its scenario analysis at 170.45.
The bank’s current model estimate places short-term fair value near 161.75, suggesting that intervention by Japanese authorities around present levels would be “fighting the fundamentals”.
Crédit Agricole tested a range of scenarios covering Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan policy, Japan’s fiscal outlook and the future of the US-Iran conflict.
Even its more favourable scenario for the Yen—both central banks staying on hold, a peace settlement and easing Japanese fiscal concerns—produces a USD/JPY fair-value estimate near 163.50.
A renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push fair value towards 171. Higher energy prices would potentially force the Fed to raise rates while encouraging the BoJ to remain cautious because of the threat to Japanese growth.
The most severe fiscal scenario places USD/JPY near 174.60, reflecting fears over Japan’s debt position and concerns that the BoJ is falling behind the inflation curve.
According to the bank, “the path for USD/JPY is higher unless the structural weaknesses in the JPY are addressed.”
These weaknesses include loose monetary policy, a steepening Japanese government bond curve and the continued investment of Japan’s current-account surpluses into overseas assets.
Crédit Agricole describes the 162-164 region as a key battleground for Japanese authorities. A sustained move above this zone would take USD/JPY beyond its post-Plaza Accord trading range and could increase pressure for another round of intervention.
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) slipped back from 20-day highs near 1.3400 as renewed Middle East tensions encouraged investors to rotate back into the US Dollar. Despite the pullback, Sterling remained relatively resilient, with markets continuing to favour the Pound on improving UK sentiment while awaiting fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook.
GBP/USD Forecasts: 3-Week Highs
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate posted a strong advance to 3-week highs at 1.3430 in Asian trading on Thursday before a significant retreat to near 1.3400.
A break above 1.3450 could trigger a challenge on 2-month highs in the 1.36 area.
The dollar and Pound have both continued to gain traction in global markets with the focus on energy prices and yields.
The dollar gained initial support from a dip in risk appetite, but asset prices overall were resilient while higher yields underpinned the Pound.
ING commented; “High-yielding currencies can enjoy better insulation against the stronger dollar given the summer months and investors’ tendency to jump into carry trade positions on any sell-off.”
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There will, however, still be unease over underlying UK fiscal trends and a further increase in yields could start to undermine the Pound, especially if there are renewed fears over the economic policies under Prime Minister Burnham.
After strong gains on Wednesday, oil prices were little changed, but with a gain of over 10% this week.
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com commented; “A flare-up of Middle East tensions has rattled global markets again and jammed a war risk premium back into asset prices.”
There are also potential implications for Federal Reserve policy
Rodda added; “A jump in oil prices could bring forward the timing of a Fed hike.”
According to ING; “Our bias is that higher energy prices will provide fuel for the Fed hawks and keep the dollar supported on dips – particularly against the low yielders.
MUFG also noted potential risks; “If tensions in the region were to intensify further and the price of oil continue to rise sharpy, it could reinforce the USD’s recent upward momentum especially now that the Fed has indicated that it is open to raising rates this year. US yields moved back towards recent highs yesterday.”
Minutes from June’s Federal Reserve minutes suggested two clear scenarios. One group indicated that rate cuts will be delayed while another section will want a near-term rate hike if inflation remains high.
MUFG is still cautious over the dollar outlook; “Overall, the minutes support our view that the new Fed Chair Warsh will favour leaving rates on hold if energy prices remain at lower levels. We expect the US dollar to give back recent gains if Fed rate hike expectations are disappointed, although acknowledged that renewed tensions in the Middle East pose upside risks.”
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2026.07.10 2026.07.10 USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 10.07.26–17.07.26
Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
Main scenario: Consider long positions from corrections above 160.35 with a target of 165.00–170.00. A buy signal: the price holds above 160.35. Stop Loss: below 159.80, Take Profit: 165.00–170.00.
Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation below 160.35 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 158.90–158.00. A sell signal: the level of 160.35 is broken to the downside. Stop Loss: above 160.90, Take Profit: 158.90–158.00.
Main Scenario
Consider long positions from corrections above 160.35 with a target of 165.00–170.00.
Alternative Scenario
Breakout and consolidation below 160.35 will allow the pair to continue declining to the levels of 158.90–158.00.
Analysis
On the weekly time frame, an ascending third wave of larger degree 3 has formed, a downward correction has been completed as the fourth wave 4, and the fifth wave 5 is developing. On the daily chart, the third wave of smaller degree (3) of 5 appears to be developing, with wave 3 of (3) forming as its part. On the H4 time frame, wave i of 3 has formed, a local correction has been completed as wave ii of 3, and wave iii of 3 has started developing. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to rise to 165.00–170.00. The level of 160.35 is critical in this scenario as a breakout below it will enable the pair to continue declining to the levels of 158.90–158.00.
This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.
Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
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The GBPJPY pair approached the extra target at 218.10 by its last bullish rally, but its neediness to the bullish momentum by stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level that pushed it to form corrective rebound, to settle near 217.00.
The continuation of the trading fluctuation below the barrier at 118.10 makes us expect forming corrective trading, to target 216.30 level reaching the extra support near 215.45, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will open the way for resuming the bullish trend, reminding you that the stability of the next main target near 218.65 level.
The expected trading range for today is between 216.55 and 218.10
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
The GBPJPY pair approached the extra target at 218.10 by its last bullish rally, but its neediness to the bullish momentum by stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level that pushed it to form corrective rebound, to settle near 217.00.
The continuation of the trading fluctuation below the barrier at 118.10 makes us expect forming corrective trading, to target 216.30 level reaching the extra support near 215.45, while breaching the barrier and holding above it will open the way for resuming the bullish trend, reminding you that the stability of the next main target near 218.65 level.
The expected trading range for today is between 216.55 and 218.10
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
The British pound initially rallied against the USD on Thursday but seems to be running into a touch of trouble.
GBP/USD
The British pound initially rallied against the US dollar during trading here on Thursday, and it then tested an area that was a major resistance barrier just waiting to happen, where supply had come into the market aggressively several days ago. Now we find ourselves trying to form a bit of a shooting star just above the 200-day EMA. We have to ask whether or not the sellers are going to get aggressive.
Interest rates in America did dip just a touch. I think you also have a situation where it’s difficult to get aggressive against the US dollar, although you can certainly make an argument if there is one currency that probably has a good shot at really taking it to the US dollar, it’s the British pound.
Middle East Chaos and Range Dynamics
That being said, I think there are a lot of questions right now about what’s going to happen next in the Middle East, and that’s causing some chaos. The markets, I believe, continue to just hang around this area, and I just don’t see how markets are looking for a big move in one direction or the other. This is a currency pair that tends to range quite a bit, and we are basically in the middle of the range from last year. So, a little bit of hesitation here makes sense. Maybe a short-term selling opportunity, but I think you’re somewhat in no man’s land.
I did this yesterday, I put this out, and I suggested that maybe the British pound is a great measure of the US dollar. If the pound starts to fall, then that means your dollar is going to strengthen against multiple other currencies. If the US dollar starts to fall apart, you should see the pound be one of the biggest beneficiaries. So, I think this is still very much a tertiary indicator more than anything else.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
The British Pound (GBP) is pulling lower against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, after hitting a fresh all-time high at 218.01 earlier on the day. The pair has returned to the mid-range of the 217.00s at the time of writing, yet with the bullish trend in place, holding comfortably above the previous highs, in the 217.20 area.
Risks of an intervention by the Japanese authorities remain high, but the wide divergence between the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rates and those of the major central banks poses a heavy weight on the JPY. More so with Oil prices bouncing up and pressuring global central banks to tighten their borrowing costs.
Technical Analysis: RSI divergence hints at a potential correction
GBP/JPY trades at 217.60, with Elliott Wave analysis suggesting that the pair might be on the fifth and last wave of a bullish cycle. The Pound has pulled back from the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the fourth wave, at 218.00, and the bearish divergence in the four-hour Relative Strength Index suggests that some consolidation or a corrective reversal might follow from here.
Bears, however, should break the July 7 lows, at 216.35, to confirm that the bullish cycle has completed. In that case, the early July trading floor, near 214.65, would emerge as the next target.
The broader bias, on the other hand, remains positive, and bulls might attempt a further rally, heading for the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the mentioned rally, at 218.90. Furter appreciation seems off the cards right now.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.08%
-0.00%
-0.08%
0.05%
-0.05%
-0.59%
-0.12%
EUR
0.08%
0.08%
0.00%
0.12%
0.05%
-0.49%
-0.03%
GBP
0.00%
-0.08%
-0.09%
0.05%
-0.03%
-0.56%
-0.11%
JPY
0.08%
0.00%
0.09%
0.11%
0.06%
-0.51%
-0.04%
CAD
-0.05%
-0.12%
-0.05%
-0.11%
-0.07%
-0.61%
-0.15%
AUD
0.05%
-0.05%
0.03%
-0.06%
0.07%
-0.53%
-0.08%
NZD
0.59%
0.49%
0.56%
0.51%
0.61%
0.53%
0.46%
CHF
0.12%
0.03%
0.11%
0.04%
0.15%
0.08%
-0.46%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
