Created on September 15, 2026

The US dollar continues to see noisy trading against the Japanese yen as we start the week.

USD/JPY

The U.S. dollar has rallied just a touch during the trading session on Monday as we continue to build a little bit of a basing pattern against the Japanese yen.

This is very interesting because the 10-year yield in the United States has just broken above the 5% level, and that is going to influence a lot of things at the same time. The Bank of Japan does have an interest rate decision on Thursday, expected to be a hike. The Federal Reserve is expected to hike on Wednesday, so it’s more or less a wash.

I think where we go next comes down to the perceived speech

How traders look at the speech in the press conference after these central bank decisions will determine what the forward path is. As things stand right now, the bond market is suggesting more rate hikes in America are coming, and I think a lot of traders are starting to come around to that realization.

Now, the Bank of Japan has intervened multiple times, but all that’s done is offer U.S. dollars at a discount. They will find that the market is bigger than what they can control. The best they can do is slow things down. Generally speaking, they will need the Federal Reserve to bail them out to fight this for the longer term.

The question at this point is, does the ¥153 level hold as support? So far, it looks like it’s trying to. The other question is, can we break above the ¥156 level? Because if we can, that could be the beginning of something somewhat significant.

I do believe that the interest rate differential continues to be a major issue here. If that’s going to be the case, we’ve got a scenario where traders continue to look at the U.S. dollar with interest, especially as we are in the oversold part of the stochastic oscillator and starting to see momentum to the upside while interest rates continue to climb.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

The pair attempted to benefit from the Stochastic indicator’s move out of oversold territory by forming some corrective bullish waves, with the price currently fluctuating near 178.55. This rebound does not pose any threat to the bearish scenario, supported by the stability of the key resistance at 180.80, in addition to the formation of 179.45 as an additional barrier against further bearish trading.

Accordingly, we will continue to wait for the price to gather additional bearish momentum, which would strengthen the chances of attacking 177.35 soon and then attempting to pressure the next support at 176.70.

The expected trading range for today is between 177.35 and 179.40

Trend forecast: Bearish

The pair ended its corrective bullish rebound after encountering resistance near 0.8605 and stabilizing below it, maintaining its overall movement within the bearish channel shown on the attached chart.

The main indicators have also started providing bearish momentum, supporting the continuation of the negative scenario. The price is currently stabilizing near 0.8550, and we expect it to resume its bearish attack soon, targeting 0.8520 and then 0.8480.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8520 and 0.8575

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Could Rising UK Unemployment Push Sterling Lower?

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell on Monday, with expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week lending support to the ‘Greenback’.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3473, down 0.4% on the day.

The US Dollar (USD) gained ground on Monday as traders moved into the ‘Greenback’ ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement on Wednesday evening.

The prospect of an interest rate hike from the Fed, which markets widely anticipate at this week’s meeting, helped bolster demand for the US currency.

The safe-haven US Dollar also benefited from growing risk aversion.

Tensions in the Middle East intensified as Yemen’s Houthi rebels stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure, unsettling financial markets.

The Pound (GBP) struggled for direction on Monday, with Sterling traders keeping their powder dry ahead of a packed week of UK economic developments.

With few domestic releases expected to influence trading at the start of the week, focus shifted towards the heavier run of data and events ahead.

Among the key releases on the agenda were the latest UK labour market figures, consumer price index, Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and retail sales data.

With several potential catalysts approaching, GBP traders were reluctant to take sizeable positions.

This left the Pound subdued as the new trading week got underway.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Jobs Figures to Weigh on Pound?

Looking forward, Tuesday’s UK employment figures are set to give Sterling its first major test of the week, as traders assess what the data could reveal about the strength of the labour market.

UK unemployment is forecast to edge higher from 4.9% to 5% in the three months to July, while wage growth including bonuses is expected to have slowed over the same period.

Signs of a weakening jobs market could put further pressure on the Pound, particularly with the Bank of England’s interest rate decision due later in the week.

Across the Atlantic, the US economic calendar is relatively quiet on Tuesday.

This could leave USD more exposed to shifts in risk appetite, with a risk-off environment potentially providing support for the ‘Greenback’.

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Brent oil moved above the $107.00 level as reports indicated that Saudi East-West pipeline will not work for several weeks after an attack. I’d note that oil prices pulled back from session highs after President Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine agreed not to attack energy facilities. Russia and Ukraine have not confirmed the existence of such a deal.

In case U.S. Dollar Index stays above the support level at 99.25 – 99.40, it will move towards the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00. On the support side, a successful test of the support at 99.25 – 99.40 will open the way to the test of the next support, which is located in the 98.60 – 98.75 range.

EUR/USD Pulls Back As Oil Prices Rise

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: September Fed Hike Could Decide USD Outlook

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) held close to 1.1600 last week despite another surge in US Treasury yields, with markets now focused squarely on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh and this week’s crucial policy decision.

A September rate hike is increasingly expected, but the bigger question for the Dollar is whether the Fed can ultimately deliver the tightening cycle already priced into markets.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Big Call for Feds Warsh

SEB expects the dollar to hold steady in the short term and potentially advance slightly over the remainder of 2026, but the bank expects the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will strengthen to 1.23 by the end of 2027.

Goldman Sachs, however, has a 12-month EUR/USD forecast of 1.12.

The main feature during the week was a slide in US Treasuries with the 10-year yield jumping to near 5.00% and the highest level for over three years. Higher energy prices contributed to the fears with Brent hitting 4-month highs above $100 p/b.

Despite this volatility, EUR/USD was held in relatively tight ranges and settled close to 1.16.

The headline US inflation rate held at 3.4% for August with the core rate edging lower to 2.4% from 2.5% and in line with consensus forecasts.

Markets are now pricing in close to a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at this week’s meeting.

ING commented; “It is a close call, but after Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, we now see a 25bp Fed hike to 4.00% on 16 September.”

Markets also consider that the most likely outcome is three rate increases by March 2027.

According to SEB; “Rates have continued to rise during the summer and a sticky inflation scenario for the Fed now looks reflected in pricing. A question is if the Fed will be able to meet expectations – it is not obvious to us. Meanwhile Scott Bessent has begun a more activist approach via Yen intervention and increasing treasury buybacks, both having a negative Dollar impact.”

It added; “This is happening with a backdrop where the global positioning in the Dollar has only increased (via lower FX hedge ratios). Thus, the outlook would seem to be skewed towards Dollar weakness, triggered by an eventual global disinflation impulse (Hormuz reopening) – this is looking like a story for 2027 though.”

SEB did note Euro-Zone reservations; “French budget/election is a risk, but bias is that Euro can climb this wall of worry by avoiding the most negative market outcome.”

The ECB raised rates by 25 basis points at the latest policy meeting with the deposit rate hiked to 2.50%. There were also hints that a further increase is possible before year-end.

Euro-Zone energy prices continued to increase with natural gas prices at fresh 3-year highs.

Goldman Sachs commented; “On net, we see moderate risks of energy-driven EUR under-performance ahead.”

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The GBPJPY pair provided more negative closes by moving away from 210.40 barrier, forming bearish waves by its stability below 208.10 level, announcing its readiness to resume the previously suggested negative trend.

Gathering extra negative momentum makes us expect reaching 206.70 level, where surpassing it will open the way for targeting more negative stations, to reach 205.90 and 205.10.

The expected trading range for today is between 206.70 and 208.70

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EURJPY pair confirmed its readiness to resume the main bearish trend by providing a negative close again below the main barrier at 180.80 level, reaching 177.85 in Friday, achieving the previously awaited initial target.

The continuation of providing negative momentum by the main indicators will increase the efficiency of the negative trend, which might target new negative stations that begin at 177.35 reaching the next support near 176.70.

The expected trading range for today is between 177.35 and 178.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

Focus for the Euro is what occurs post the recent European Central Bank (ECB) decision. The ECB chose to increase interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in 2022. Renewed increases in inflation, driven by rising energy prices, has policymakers focused on good policymaking. EUR/USD initially sold off on the news as investors digested the growing income risks against slowing economic conditions. Speeches from President Lagarde and many of her colleagues are due at various points today, market participants should closely follow these speeches for update on future policy decisions.

For sterling, the main event this Thursday is the Bank of England meeting. About 75% of participants expect the BoE to stand pat. In the absence of any blow-up Middle East conflict, we’ll see increased re-invigoration in demand for higher yielding assets. However, ruptures to Middle East Oil continue to grow and will further increase oil prices. Increased oil prices will lead to inflation in the UK, narrowing policy divergences between the BoE, Fed and ECB.

Fundamental bias: DXY moderately bullish, EUR neutral, GBP neutral, with this week’s Fed and BoE decisions likely to determine the next major policy divergence.

U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Breaks Above $99.26 as $99.39 Comes Into Focus

But a 25 basis point increase may already be priced in. Therefore, USD/JPY could decline more sharply if Ueda talks at the next couple of meetings about another hike or if he indicates that rates might be raised beyond 1.75%. A dovish press conference might have the opposite effect and move USD/JPY higher.

On the other hand, the expectation of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has increased by 87% after the US inflation data. If both central banks raise rates by 25 basis points, the interest rate gap would remain broadly unchanged.

This could limit the immediate gains in yen. The move in USD/JPY would then depend mainly on which central bank signals a faster pace of future tightening.

USD/JPY Forecast: 152 Support in Focus After Break Below 159

USD/JPY remains under extreme pressure in the short term after failing at the long-term resistance zone of 160-162. The pair produced a high of 163.98 on July 20 but failed to hold it and dropped sharply. This drop indicates that the pair is moving toward the 150 area in the short term to find the next support.

This support is defined by the ascending channel pattern that stretches from the January 2023 lows. If this support holds and bottom forms around 150, it will likely initiate another rally toward 160-162.

The formation of bottoms in December 2023, September 2024 and April 2025 suggests positive price action in USD/JPY. Therefore, a confirmed break above the 162 level will likely open the way to higher levels, possibly reaching 175.