July 15, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Pound Sterling Forecast: Possible “Break Through 0.8670”

Foreign exchange analysts warn that this week’s data could drive further gains in the Euro to Pound exchange rate, with a potential break above 0.8670 paving the way for a test of April’s high near 0.8735.

Pound Sterling (GBP) was subjected to renewed pressure against the Euro (EUR) late last week and, on Monday, was unable to take advantage of President Trump’s threat to impose 30% tariffs on the EU.

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) dipped to 3-month lows close to 1.1530 before a marginal recovery.

According to ING there is GBP/EUR resistance close to 1.1630.

It noted; “This week’s data could see EUR/GBP break through 0.8670 resistance in a move to challenge April’s spike high at 0.8735. (A break below 1.1530 for GBP/EUR would potentially lead to 1.1450).

MUFG maintains a GBP/EUR target of 1.1300.

The UK Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC) and KPMG survey stated that their index of staff availability rose to 66.1 from 63.3 in May, the highest reading since November 2020.only the 2008/09 financial crisis and 2020 pandemic resulted in higher readings.

KPMG chief executive Jon Holt commented; “Ongoing geopolitical turbulence and the threat of rising costs, alongside the promise of technology efficiencies, mean companies continue to wait and see with their hiring.”

The latest UK labour-market survey will be released on Thursday.

ING commented; “In May, payrolled employees fell by quite a large 109k. Most expect this number to be revised up.”

It added; “If not, perhaps the UK labour market is in a weaker position after all, and the Bank of England (BoE) will have to cut rates more quickly.”

In comments over the weekend, BoE Governor Bailey commented; “I think the path [for interest rates] is down. I really do believe the path is downward.”

He added; “But we continue to use the words ‘gradual and careful’ because some people say to me ‘why are you cutting when inflation’s above target?”‘

Bailey did, however, note that there could be scope for a faster pace of interest rates if there is evidence of faster labour-market deterioration.

Over the weekend, President Trump stated that 30% tariffs would be imposed on the EU from August 1st.

The EU has adopted a controlled response at this stage and will not adopt counter measures until after August 1st.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Carol Kong commented; “It seems like financial markets have become insensitive to President Trump’s tariff threats now, after so many of them in the past few months.”

She added; “Judging by the limited market reaction, markets might think that the latest threat from Trump is actually a manoeuvre to extract more concessions.”

According to Rabobank; “it’s Trump’s negotiating style to put more pressure on the other side in the final stages before a deal is reached. And, as one official put it, Trump will never go through with this.”

ING noted the high degree of uncertainty; “We have given up speculating about any longer-term strategies in these trade negotiations. What the letters of the last days, and in particular the letters to the EU and Mexico, show is that we are nearing a make-it-or-break-it moment.”

Assuming there is no extension of the August 1st deadline, ING considers that the US pressure could lead to tangible results or the US Administration decides to scale back the tariff threat which would be positive outcomes.

It does consider a third option would be an all-out trade war which would inevitably destabilise economies and damage risk conditions.

Given that the KPMG survey noted that geo-political stresses were important in curbing recruitment, there will be further concerns that the trade uncertainty will damage the UK labour market and economy.

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TAGS: Euro Pound Forecasts Pound Euro Forecasts

July 15, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast 2025: 1.40 by 2026, Then Rebound

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) dipped to 3-week lows, fractionally above 1.3450, on Monday before a tentative recovery to 1.3485.

The Pound has been undermined by increased chatter of a more aggressive Bank of England agenda to cut interest rates. The dollar has held firm, but there is still a high degree of uncertainty over Federal Reserve policy amid major economic and political dimensions.

According to UoB; “Looking ahead, if GBP were to break and hold below 1.3445, it may trigger a deeper decline towards June’s low, near 1.3375.”

Scotiabank commented that GBP/USD will need to regain the 1.3500 area quickly to alleviate the pressure for further losses.

Credit Agricole has a year-end GBP/USD forecast of 1.40 with scope for a Pound rebound.

In comments over the weekend, Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that he is convinced that interest rates will continue to decline. He also stated that the gradual and cautious policy towards rate cuts is still justified.

He did, however, add on the labour market; “If we saw the slack opening up much more quickly, that would lead us to a different conclusion.”

In this context, UK data will be watched closely this week with the inflation data on Wednesday and labour-market release on Thursday.

Interactive Investor head of investment Victoria Scholar commented; “Friday’s disappointing GDP figures, combined with these weak jobs figures boost the case for the Bank of England to cut interest rates in August.”

She added; “All eyes are on Wednesday’s inflation report with CPI expected to remain at remain around 3.4% in June, roughly unchanged for the third consecutive month.”

The core rate is forecast to hold at 3.5% for the month.

Marekts are now pricing to over an 85% chance of an August cut with a further cut before year-end.

Weak labour-market data and high inflation would be potentially toxic for the Pound with increased stagflation fears.

The US will release the latest consumer prices inflation data on Tuesday. Consensus forecasts are for the headline inflation rate to increase to 2.6% from 2.4%.

Markets will also focus strongly on the core data.

ING commented; “This is expected to start ticking back up to 0.3% month-on-month increases as the effects of tariffs finally start to show up, although the effects might be more sizeable in the July-September data than the June data.”

It added that expectations of a September cut could dip further and; “prove slightly positive for the dollar.”

Weaker than expected data would trigger fresh speculation over near-term interest rate cuts and increase US Administration demands for the Fed to act aggressively.

Over the weekend, there was further speculation that President Trump would look to dismiss Fed Chair Powell.

There were comments from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett that Trump does have the authority to fire Powell if there is cause.

In this context, there has been further chatter that allegations of excess spending on the Fed renovation programme would be used to justify the move.

Former Fed Governor Warsh also criticised the Fed; “It’s lost, lost its way in supervision, it’s lost its way in monetary policy, and all this big money on big, fancy buildings is just another indication.”

Importantly, these two have been cited as being on the short list to replace Powell.

Rabobank commented; “Is the Trump administration creating another bit of pre-text for firing Powell?”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• I’m watching this pair very closely because we are at a crucial area in the form of the 148 yen level.
• The 148 yen level is a large round psychologically significant figure, but it’s an area where we’ve seen a lot of action in the past.
• In fact, we are also approaching the crucial 200 day EMA.

So, I think a lot of things will come together here for a bigger move. If we can break above the 148 yen level, then I think the market goes looking to the 151 yen level and then possibly much higher than that. After all, we’ve been grinding sideways for a while, and this is a pair that’s interesting because interest rates in the United States are climbing via the bond market.

At the same time, we have the Japanese government bonds out there getting “no bid” days, meaning that nobody is willing to buy Japanese debt. If that continues, that means that we have a situation where the Bank of Japan may have to step into the marketplace and buy bonds in order to finance the debt of Japan. That is quantitative easing. That is the purest form of quantitative easing. And that would be the end of any Japanese yen strength.

Looking at the Larger Charts

When you zoom out, you can see that the area that we are trying to escape from has been important multiple times in the past. And this would end up being a triple bottom. Now the question is, do we go to all-time highs or anything crazy like that? Well, no, because all-time highs are about 150 handles north a year, maybe even further than that. But a new high, that’s very possible thing here with the 162 yen level being a potential target over the longer term.

It just comes down to what the Federal Reserve has to do with its interest rate policy. Right now, a lot of people are betting that the Americans are going to start cutting rapidly. The problem is that the economic numbers coming out of America don’t necessarily support that argument, at least not for a longer term move. Ultimately, though, I think this is a Japanese yen problem. So on a breakout on the buyer on a pullback towards the 145 yen level and the 50 day EMA by extension. I’m a buyer there on a bounce.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar is higher against the Japanese yen after initially gapping lower. The 148 yen level above continues to be an area I would be watching pretty closely, mainly due to the fact that it not only has been a bit of resistance as of late, but it also features the 200 day EMA, which of course in and of itself will attract a certain amount of attention. I don’t necessarily want to buy the US dollar up here, but I don’t like the idea of shorting either.

Japan has plenty of its own issues at the moment and therefore, you have to look at the Japanese yen a little bit differently than other currencies against the dollar. With the Japanese government bond market seeing no bid days recently, that means the Bank of Japan will eventually have to step in and start monetizing the debt again. And that’s absolutely toxic for a currency. Pullbacks continue to be potential buying opportunities, with special attention paid to the 145 yen level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar gapped lower, rallied a bit, and then started to fall again. This is a market that I think is probably pretty close to having to make a bigger decision, but as things stand right now, it’s just in this kind of choppy and perhaps even sloppy channel that we have been trying to kind of sort out here for three months. At this point in time, it does favor the upside, I guess, a little bit over the longer term, but you have to be extraordinarily patient. I do think that a pullback is probably more likely than not, but that pullback should attract a certain amount of attention near the now infamous 0.6550 level and then again at the 50 day EMA underneath there.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The GBPJPY pair continued to provide mixed trading within the bullish channel’s levels, approaching from the correctional target at 197.85, affected by stochastic negativity that fluctuates below 50 level as appears in the above image.

Reminding you that the bullish scenario will remain valid unless the price settles above the extra barrier at 198.80, increasing the chances for reaching 197.85 and 197.40, while the price success to breach the barrier will open the way towards recording several gains that might begin at 199.60 and 200.35.

The expected trading range for today is between 197.85 and 199.00

Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track

Strong inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Bitcoin prices rose during Monday’s trading, extending gains for the second consecutive day and continuing to set new all-time highs, with trading above the $120,000 level for the first time in history.

This surge comes amid strong inflows into U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, and a strong demand from institutional investors, and supportive policies from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump toward cryptocurrencies.

Price Overview

 • Bitcoin Price Today: On the Bitstamp exchange, the price of Bitcoin rose by $2,308, or 1.94%, to reach $121,448, marking a new all-time high. It opened today’s trading at $119,140, with the lowest level recorded at $118,972.

 • The settlement on Bitstampt exchange on Sunday, Bitcoin prices closed Sunday with a 1.4% gain in the fifth increase in the past six days, amid record demand for the leading cryptocurrency.

 • The world’s largest digital currency “Bitcoin” recorded a 9% gain last week, marking its third consecutive weekly rise.

Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose by over $20 billion on Monday to reach $3.818 trillion, the highest level since December 2024, driven by Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally and rising Ethereum prices.

Strong Inflows into Exchange-Traded Funds

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added approximately $1.03 billion on Friday on the final session of the week. This marked the seventh consecutive day of new inflows into these U.S.-listed products, bringing the total to around $3.735 billion.

On Thursday, July 10, these ETFs recorded their largest daily inflow of 2025, with a value of $1.18 billion.

Bullish Catalysts

Joshua Chu, Co-Chair of the Hong Kong Web3 Association, stated that Bitcoin’s new record highs are being driven by continued institutional accumulation, as major players are taking advantage of limited supply and draining liquidity from exchanges.

In March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies. He also appointed several crypto-friendly figures, including Paul Atkins as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and David Sacks as the White House’s AI Czar.

The U.S. Congress is nearing the approval of new legislation to regulate digital currencies in the United States.

Trump family companies

Trump family businesses have made a strong entry into the world of cryptocurrencies. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) is reportedly planning to launch a cryptocurrency-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF) to invest in multiple digital assets, including Bitcoin, according to a filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last Tuesday.

• The GBP/USD forecast shows a continuing decline after Friday’s poor UK GDP data.

• Trump announced a 30% tariff on the Eurozone and Mexico.

• This week, the US CPI report will shape the outlook for rate cuts.

The GBP/USD forecast shows a continuing decline after the UK released downbeat GDP data in the previous session. At the same time, the dollar edged higher on Monday after Trump announced new tariffs over the weekend. Meanwhile, market participants are gearing up for the US CPI report this week.

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The pound dropped on Friday after data revealed that the UK economy contracted by 0.1%. Meanwhile, economists had forecasted a 0.1% expansion. This was the second contraction in a row, raising concerns about the state of the economy. At the same time, it adds pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs and spur economic growth. 

Elsewhere, Trump announced a 30% tariff on the US’s major trading partners on Saturday. The Eurozone and Mexico will suffer this high levy if there is no trade deal before the August 1 deadline. The US president has already threatened higher tariffs for other countries like Brazil, Canada, Japan, and South Korea. However, his recent threats have had little impact on financial markets. 

At the same time, Trump continued his attacks on Fed Chair Powell, asking him to step down if he cannot lower borrowing costs. This week, the US CPI report will shape the outlook for rate cuts. A downbeat report would increase the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.

GBP/USD key events today

Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from the UK or the US. Therefore, they will keep digesting Friday’s releases.

GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears eye the 1.3400 support 

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has made new lows after breaking below a solid resistance zone. Initially, bears had paused above the 1.3601 key level and the 0.5 Fib retracement level. The price consolidated until the 30-SMA caught up. Eventually, bears gained enough momentum to breach the support zone. 

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After the break, the price has dropped in a sharp move below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has dipped into the oversold region, suggesting solid bearish momentum. Given the strong bearish bias, the price might soon reach the 1.3400 support level. However, there might be a pause before the downtrend continues. A break below the 1.3400 level would solidify the bearish bias.

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Strong inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Bitcoin prices rose during Monday’s trading, extending gains for the second consecutive day and continuing to set new all-time highs, with trading above the $120,000 level for the first time in history.

This surge comes amid strong inflows into U.S.-based Bitcoin ETFs, and a strong demand from institutional investors, and supportive policies from the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump toward cryptocurrencies.

Price Overview

 • Bitcoin Price Today: On the Bitstamp exchange, the price of Bitcoin rose by $2,308, or 1.94%, to reach $121,448, marking a new all-time high. It opened today’s trading at $119,140, with the lowest level recorded at $118,972.

 • The settlement on Bitstampt exchange on Sunday, Bitcoin prices closed Sunday with a 1.4% gain in the fifth increase in the past six days, amid record demand for the leading cryptocurrency.

 • The world’s largest digital currency “Bitcoin” recorded a 9% gain last week, marking its third consecutive weekly rise.

Cryptocurrency Market Capitalization

The total cryptocurrency market capitalization rose by over $20 billion on Monday to reach $3.818 trillion, the highest level since December 2024, driven by Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally and rising Ethereum prices.

Strong Inflows into Exchange-Traded Funds

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added approximately $1.03 billion on Friday on the final session of the week. This marked the seventh consecutive day of new inflows into these U.S.-listed products, bringing the total to around $3.735 billion.

On Thursday, July 10, these ETFs recorded their largest daily inflow of 2025, with a value of $1.18 billion.

Bullish Catalysts

Joshua Chu, Co-Chair of the Hong Kong Web3 Association, stated that Bitcoin’s new record highs are being driven by continued institutional accumulation, as major players are taking advantage of limited supply and draining liquidity from exchanges.

In March, President Donald Trump signed an executive order to establish a strategic reserve of cryptocurrencies. He also appointed several crypto-friendly figures, including Paul Atkins as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and David Sacks as the White House’s AI Czar.

The U.S. Congress is nearing the approval of new legislation to regulate digital currencies in the United States.

Trump family companies

Trump family businesses have made a strong entry into the world of cryptocurrencies. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.O) is reportedly planning to launch a cryptocurrency-focused exchange-traded fund (ETF) to invest in multiple digital assets, including Bitcoin, according to a filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last Tuesday.

I wrote on 6^th July that the best trades for the week would be:

1. Long of the EUR/USD currency pair. This ended the week lower by 0.70%.
2. Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index. This ended the week higher by 0.12%.
3. Long of the S&P 500 Index. This ended the week higher by 0.11%.
4. Long of Silver in USD terms following a daily (New York) close above $37.13. This did not set up until the end of the week.
5. Long of DLTR following a daily (New York) close above $109. This did not set up until the end of the week.

The overall loss of 0.47% equals a loss of 0.09% per asset.

The news last week was dominated by continuing speculation as to the amounts of President Trump’s new tariffs which would be imposed on various countries, after the hard deadline was pushed back to August. President Trump announced the following last week on tariffs:

1. A 50% tariff on all copper imports – this sent copper futures soaring to new record highs, which will have been of interest to trend and momentum traders.
2. A 50% tariff on Brazilian imports – this has been exacerbated by Brazil’s strong positions within BRICs and against key aspects of American foreign policy.
3. An additional 10% tariff on all nations deemed to align with BRICs.

These measures likely gave a boost to the US Dollar, which had an uncharacteristic strong week last week, and hit the Brazilian Real. However, overall, these items were unable to stop the two major US equity indices, the broad S&P 500 Index and the tech-focused NASDAQ 100 Index, from reaching new record highs, albeit on slowing momentum.

Other market drivers last week related to certain high-impact data releases:

1. RBA Cash Rate & Rate Statement – the RBA was expected to cut rates by 0.25%, but surprisingly left its Cash Rate unchanged, saying that the time was not quite right to cut due to inflation. This leads markets to strongly expect a rate cut in August, but it was a hawkish tilt and resulted in the Aussie being the best performer of the major currencies last week.
2. RBNZ Official Cash Rate & Rate Statement – the RBNZ was expected to hold rates and did.
3. UK GDP – was expected to show a tick higher, but instead there was a tick lower, generating more pessimism about the current state of the UK economy.
4. US Unemployment Claims – this was very slightly better than expected.
5. Canadian Unemployment Rate – this was expected to rise slightly to 7.1% but instead it fell to 6.9%. Note how much higher than Canadian unemployment rate is compared to the US rate.

Over the weekend, President Trump decreed that Mexico and the European Union will face 30% tariffs on their exports to the USA, effective 1^st August. This will likely see stock markets open lower this week, and will probably boost the Dollar while sinking the Euro and the Mexican Peso.

The coming week has a relatively light program of high-impact data releases, but the CPI (inflation) releases will be important, especially the US data, which has become established as a central driver of the USD and therefore the entire Forex market.

This week’s important data points, in order of likely importance, are:

1. US CPI (inflation)
2. US PPI
3. US Retail Sales
4. UK CPI (inflation)
5. Canadian CPI (inflation)
6. US Unemployment Claims
7. Australian Unemployment Rate

For the month of July 2025, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair will increase in value. The performance of this forecast so far is:

July 2025 Monthly Forecast Performance to Date

As there was an unusually large upwards price movement in the AUD/JPY Forex currency cross last week, I forecast that it will fall in value over the coming week.

The Australian Dollar was the strongest major currency last week, while the Japanese Yen was the weakest. Volatility increased strongly last week, with 41% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. Next week’s volatility is likely to remain the same or possibly increase.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Last week, the US Dollar Index printed a strong up candlestick which engulfed the real body of the previous week’s candlestick and closed near the top of its weekly range. These are bullish signs, but there are two bearish signs which are probably stronger:

1. There is clearly a strong and continuing long-term bearish trend in the US Dollar.
2. The high of last week’s range remained below the key resistance level I have drawn in the price chart below.

Markets are still expecting the Fed to make three more rate cuts this year, despite the Fed’s slightly hawkish recent rhetoric, and this is likely to send the Dollar to new long-term low prices once the tariff talk dies away and reaches a natural conclusion.

The NASDAQ 100 Index barely changed last week, despite briefly trading at a new all-time high price. The weekly candlestick was a small indecisive doji, which tends to signify indecision, while the small range is also bearish as it signifies declining momentum.

Although there are good arguments for trend traders to remain long here, I think we are seeing signs of a bearish retracement which is about to happen, probably linked to new tariffs President Trump has just announced will be imposed on the European Union and Mexico – there are likely to be more over this coming week, too.

I do not like trading US stock indices short, but a long trade could be possible here if we get a daily close above the current record high at 22,945.

The S&P 500 Index performed very similarly to the NASDAQ 100 Index last week. Everything I wrote above about that tech index also applies here to the S&P 500 Index. The only point I must add is that this broader Index will likely be harder hit by new tariffs than the NASDAQ 100 Index. However, if the Index goes on to make another record New York close high, I will enter a new long trade.

The EUR/USD currency pair printed a down candlestick last week which looks very like the US Dollar Index weekly candlestick.

There is a long-term bullish trend in this currency pair, which has historically trended very reliably.

However, the US just announced over the weekend that it will be imposing a new 30% tariff on all imports from the European Union, and this is likely to send prices lower over the coming week, at least over the first part of the week.

I would not want to enter a new trade except in the unlikely event that we see a daily (New York) close above $1.1806.

The AUD/JPY currency cross printed a strongly bullish candlestick with unusually large range and real body. This cross was the top performer in the Forex market last week, with the Aussie getting a boost from rising stock markets and from the Reserve Bank of Australia passing on a widely expected rate cut last week. The Japanese Yen is weak as markets still don’t see the Bank of Japan as ready to begin a serious course of rate hikes.

As the price looks somewhat over extended, and in honour of “buy the rumour, sell the fact” following the RBA’s passing on a rate cut, I think we are most likely to see the price fall here over the coming week, so a short trade with a small position size could be useful.

Another bearish factor is that the price ended the week sitting right on a resistance level which it was unable to break.

The USD/MXN currency pair printed a small rising candlestick but with a large upper wick. It is truly more of a bearish than bullish candlestick. The fact that the low of the week’s range was basically confluent with the key support level shown in the price chart below at $15.5776 suggests that all we have seen here is a little temporary support, which will soon break down to a new 10-month low price.

Over the weekend, President Trump announced that a new 30% tariff will apply to all imports from Mexico into the USA. This is bound to send the Mexican Peso lower and help bring the US Dollar higher. Therefore, I think a short trade here could be a good idea.

I will wait for a daily (New York) close below $15.5776 before entering a new short trade here.

Silver in US Dollar terms was holding up better than Gold, and despite making a bearish retracement the price remained within touching distance of the high. This kept my faith in the long-term bullish trend and allowed me to hold on to my long position in Silver.

My fair was rewarded at the end of last week when the price made a very strong bullish breakout, reaching as high as $38.50 per ounce, which was the highest price seen in over 13 years, so we really do have the price flying in blue sky right now.

Another bullish sign was that the price ended the week close to the high at $38.50. The price chart below shows this trend is extremely well established and has run since the start of 2023.

Palladium is one of the rarer precious metals. It has been rising on high volatility but exponentially, and along with Silver it rose very strongly last Friday to break to a new long-term high price.

Palladium futures are expensive for most retail investors, and the metal is not offered by many CFD brokers. However, an affordable physical ETF is available as PALL, and I will be looking to enter a trend trade long here when the market opens on Monday.

Copper had seen a broadly rising price for some time which qualified as a bullish trend, but it was President Trump’s declaration last week that all imports of Copper into the USA would be subject to a 50% tariff that send the price shooting into the stratosphere. These high prices in Copper have never been seen before – they are all-time highs, which is rare to see in a commodity.

The remaining question is how much more momentum can this news bring us on the long side. The tariff will boost the price, but by how much more?

As a trend trader, I already entered a long position here. Friday saw a bearish retracement, so a careful course of action might be entering a new long trade following a new all-time high New York closing price above $5.6855.

I see the best trades this week as:

1. Long of the EUR/USD currency pair following a daily close above $1.1806.
2. Long of the NASDAQ 100 Index following a daily close above 22,945.
3. Long of the S&P 500 Index following a daily close above 6,283.6.
4. Long of HG Copper futures following a daily close above $5.6855.
5. Long of Silver in USD terms.
6. Long of Palladium in USD terms.
7. Short of the AUD/JPY currency cross.

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The US dollar is trying to carve a local bottom following a dismal end to June. Meanwhile, gold is struggling at its 2025 trend line, which could spell trouble for the metal.

Check out today’s Weekly Forex Forecast for the latest on the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and XAUUSD.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

The DXY is rebounding today following the release of impressive US employment numbers. Thursday’s non-farm payroll report exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped from 4.3% to 4.1%.

Technically speaking, Thursday’s rally in the US dollar was not a surprise. Pairs like USDCHF were showing bullish formations on Wednesday, and EURUSD was testing channel resistance from May.

However, the DXY has a significant challenge ahead. The June candle closed below 97.70, making it a substantial confluence of resistance in July.

Additionally, dollar bulls need to reclaim areas like 97.00 and 97.40, which it tested on Thursday. But the much bigger test for the DXY is 97.70, which is the bottom of the ascending channel from 2011.

July will be interesting for the DXY. On the one hand, the US dollar remains in its 2025 downtrend and trades below key areas like 97.70. On the other hand, a break below an area as significant as 97.70 is precisely what it would take to carve out a bottom.

That doesn’t mean it will happen, but I’m not going to rule it out. Regardless of what we get, the chart will have the final say.

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD is pulling back today after the US employment report beat expectations. In the last video, I discussed the potential for a pullback from the euro in early July.

The pair was testing the top of its May channel earlier this week, and the DXY was carving a rounded bottom. So far, we haven’t seen much of a pullback from EURUSD, given how the US dollar gets walked back at each sign of strength.

Currently, EURUSD is finding resistance at 1.1788. The pair also closed a recent 4-hour candle below 1.1745; however, time will tell if this is a meaningful development or not.

My comments about where the euro might trend earlier this week are unchanged. Bulls will be eyeing levels like 1.1685, but especially areas like 1.1630 if we get it.

That could align with the DXY testing the 97.70 region. If so, it will mark a significant test for the forex market in July.

GBPUSD Forecast

The GBPUSD is testing a highly significant area this week at 1.3630. The pair bounced from here on Thursday, but it quickly faded following the strong US jobs numbers.

However, buyers are doing their best to defend 1.3630 on the high time frames. GBPUSD remains above it for now on both the daily and weekly charts.

If the DXY can reclaim levels like 97.10, it could push GBPUSD below the key level. If so, 1.3430 could be next for the pound.

That said, as long as GBPUSD trades above 1.3630, the level remains key support.

USDCHF Forecast

USDCHF is the pair that was showing bullish signs before Thursday’s NFP. The pair had reclaimed the bottom of its May channel on an hourly basis before the jobs numbers were released.

Of course, attempting a trade ahead of non-farm payroll is always ill-advised. Even if you get the direction right, the volatility and slippage can cause premature stopouts.

Thursday’s bullish reclaim of channel support could trigger a retest of 0.8040. That would be a significant moment for USDCHF, given how it’s the recent range lows, and June also closed below the level.

0.7940 is key support for USDCHF, with resistance at 0.8040. What occurs at 0.8040 could determine the next few weeks for USDCHF.

Keep the DXY and its 97.70 level on your radar as you trade the major currency pairs.

XAUUSD Forecast

Gold is an interesting chart because you have a battle between two high time frames. On one hand, XAUUSD closed below its 2025 trend line at the end of June. On the other hand, gold reclaimed it on the daily time frame last week.

However, we’re seeing sellers step in following the robust US jobs numbers. This is simply gold making good on the weekly breakdown in June.

A weekly break always carries more weight than a daily break. There’s more volume in a weekly candle, and volume equals conviction when trading technical breaks.

As long as gold is below $3,340 on a weekly closing basis, I’ll be eyeing lower levels. First is key support at $3,265, followed by $3,207.

Thursday’s selloff left a buy-side single print at $3,341. That could serve as resistance if XAUUSD holds below the $3,340 region into Thursday’s close.