Created on January 19, 2026

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bearish.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1550 – 1.1470 – 1.1400
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1680 – 1.1740 – 1.1800

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1530 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1470.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Driven by weak sentiment, the EUR/USD exchange rate is currently trading below a short-term bearish trend line. The price is attempting to recover from its recent low around 1.1584; however, the currency pair appears to be approaching a nearby resistance level that is capping gains. A pullback to this resistance zone is possible as buyers attempt to push the price higher, and the Fibonacci retracement tool indicates areas where sellers might be waiting to defend their positions. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is at 1.1650, which coincides with a significant previous level that could act as a ceiling.

Amidst free live trading recommendations, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level is at 1.1640, while a larger retracement could reach the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1655. This level coincides with the descending trendline resistance and could represent a crucial turning point for the current downtrend.

Technically, a break above this level would indicate sufficient bullish momentum to invalidate the bearish pattern. Regarding moving average readings, the 100-day simple moving average remains below the 200-day simple moving average, indicating that the stronger trend is downward, or that further selling is more likely than a reversal. The EUR/USD pair is currently trading below two dynamic inflection points, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Technically, the Stochastic oscillator is also moving upwards from oversold territory, suggesting that buyers are attempting to return. The indicator has room to rise before reaching overbought territory, so the EUR/USD pair may continue to move higher as long as the upward pressure persists. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing significant gains and still has a long way to go higher, meaning that the correction may gain momentum before sellers regain control.

Generally, if any of the Fibonacci levels hold as resistance, the EUR/USD pair may resume its decline towards the bottom of the channel or reach new lows. A break below the psychological support level of 1.1500 will remain crucial for bears. On the other hand, a strong break above the trend line and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level would confirm the start of a trend reversal.

Trading Tips:

The EUR/USD downward trend may continue, offering better buying opportunities for the currency pair at lower prices than current levels. However, it is essential to avoid taking unnecessary risks, regardless of how strong the trading opportunities may seem.

What happened to the Euro in the Forex market recently?

According to currency market data, the Euro struggled to gain positive momentum as investors digested a mixed bag of GDP figures from Germany. The German Federal Statistical Office confirmed that the country would return to growth in 2025, with the German economy expanding by 0.2%, in line with expectations.

However, sentiment was dampened by a downward revision to the 2024 GDP forecast, which was lowered from -0.2% to -0.5%, highlighting the fragility of the recovery in the Eurozone’s largest economy. On the German inflation front, final CPI data is expected to confirm a sharp slowdown in price growth, with annual inflation forecast to fall from 2.3% to 1.8% in December. Obvioulsy, this decline could reignite concerns about weak domestic demand and the sustainability of Germany’s economic recovery.

Overall, the euro remains under pressure from ongoing political tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland, with US President Donald Trump’s remarks on the Arctic territory overshadowing recent talks.

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STORY LINK British Pound to Euro Forecast: GBP Nears Best Levels in Four Months

The Pound-to-Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) edged higher after traders absorbed stronger-than-expected UK GDP data, with Sterling finding support as immediate recession fears eased and risk appetite improved.

GBP/EUR Forecasts: Looking to Target 4-Month Highs

There was a muted initial response to the UK GDP data, but the Pound has gained some traction with the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate edging above the 1.15750 level.

GBP/EUR needs to move above 1.1570 to reach a 4-month high.

There was stronger than expected GDP data while risk appetite was stronger amid immediate relief that there have been no US attacks on Iran.

ING sees scope for short-term Pound gains; “Given the positioning, we think EUR/GBP support at 0.8645/55 looks vulnerable and the risks are building towards a breakdown to 0.8600 next week (Gains to 1.1630 for GBP/EUR).

ING still expects Pound losses later in the year.

MUFG played down the GDP impact; “While the upside growth surprise is a welcome development, it does not significantly alter our expectations for further BoE cuts and a weaker pound this year.”

UK GDP increased 0.3% for November after a 0.1% decline the previous month and compared with consensus forecasts of a 0.1% advance for the month.

For November, the services sector grew 0.3% while there was a 1.1% gain for industrial production as Jaguar Land Rover output continued to rebound from the cyber attack.

There was, however, a 1.3% slide in construction output.

ING expressed concern over the construction sector; What really stands out in these figures, though, is what’s happening in construction. Output was down sharply (again) in November and is now almost 3% lower since July. That goes hand-in-hand with a purchasing managers index (PMI) which has recently fallen off a cliff.”

Wider economic fears will ease to some extent.

According to Thomas Pugh, chief economist at audit, tax and consulting firm RSM UK; “The risk that the economy outright contracted in Q4 has sharply receded.”

He was still cautious over the outlook; “However, we doubt the economy did little more than stagnate in Q4, as the initial data for December has been weak, and doctor’s strikes will add to the drag on growth.”

There are potentially significant implications for monetary and fiscal policy

Pugh added; “The stronger-than-expected outturn in November will also further dent any chances of a back-to-back rate cut in February. We doubt the next rate cut will come until April.”

Markets see less than a 10% chance of a February rate cut.

National Institute of Economic and Social Research senior economist Ben Caswell noted; “Given today’s figure, we now project that the economy grew 1.4 per cent in 2025 – a rise in the growth rate compared to the year before.

He added; “Against this backdrop, the Chancellor more than doubled her fiscal headroom at the Budget in an effort to bolster economic confidence. While it is too early to see the full effect of this, the move appears to have eased speculation over future tax policy and the uncertainty that came with it.”

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STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Can EUR/USD Break Higher as Fed Risks Grow?

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has eased back from recent highs, slipping toward 1.16 as investors grow more cautious on the timing and scale of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

While some banks still see scope for euro gains over the medium term, resilient US data and a firmer dollar tone have capped upside for now.

Markets are increasingly focused on Fed policy credibility and whether US rates can stay higher for longer into 2026.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Battle for Supremacy

RBC Capital Markets expects that the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate will make gains in 2026, but has lowered its end-year projection to 1.20 from 1.24 with this level now seen as being reached at the end of 2024.

After little change initially, ING is continuing to back gains to 1.22 by the end of 2026 as US interest rates continue.

EUR/USD drifted lower to test the 1.1600 area during the week.

Markets are expecting two Fed rate cuts during 2026.

Credit Agricole is expecting Euro losses as the Fed resists rate cuts; “We continue to expect unchanged rates in January.

Past that, our current base case has the pause turning into an extended one that lasts through the entirety of 2026, though this is predicated upon seeing some stabilisation in the labour market in upcoming reports, where weaker-than-expected data would raise the risks of a shorter pause and/or more easing than we currently project.”

The issue of Fed independence will remain a key issue.

Early this week, the justice department issued subpoenas against the Federal Reserve and Chair Powell with claims of malpractice over Federal Reserve building renovations.

Powell pushed back strongly against the move and defended the bank strongly. MUFG commented;

“The repeated attacks on the Fed’s independence to satisfy President Trump’s desire for lower rates continues to pose downside risks for the US dollar and supports our forecast for a weaker US dollar.

It added; “However, it could backfire on President Trump if Fed officials dig in and keep rates on hold as an act of defiance to highlight the Fed’s ongoing independence in setting policy.”

RBC still expects net dollar losses against the Euro on three grounds as the cost of carry compresses between the countries, hedges on US assets will rise. It also expects a rotation into European assets and stronger Euro-Zone growth.

RBC is still cautious over the scope for substantial gains;

“We are aware of the headwinds to long-term EUR/USD strength – US productivity growth outperforms Europe’s, there is no good European alternative to USTs, the US dominates Europe in AI and tech and the EU also still has an undercurrent of political risk.”

ING also sees near-term potential barriers to Euro support;

“With volatility low, and high-yield and emerging market currencies in demand, it seems investors are preferring to fund carry trades out of the euro at a cost of just 2.00% rather than dollars at around 3.55%.”

Deutsche Bank expects Asian currency developments will be a key element;

“Comparing medium-term FX valuation estimates to mid-dated forwards shows that EUR/USD is now very close to fair value, even if the dollar is still expensive. It will be very hard for EUR/USD to break 1.20 in the absence of greater idiosyncratic strength in Asia FX.

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Reuters Poll Points to a July Rate Hike

According to January’s Reuters poll, conducted between January 6-13, 43% of economists predicted a July BoJ rate hike, 27% a June hike, and just 8% an April hike. Economists expect the BoJ to delay raising interest rates to assess the impact of December’s rate hike on the economy.

However, the weaker yen has pushed import prices higher, reducing households’ purchasing power. A more hawkish BoJ policy stance, including hints at cutting JGB purchases, would likely offer much-needed relief. Private consumption is a key contributor to Japan’s economy, accounting for roughly 60% of GDP.

The BoJ monetary policy decision is set for January 23. 65 of 67 economists polled expected the BoJ to keep rates steady in January and March. The slump in machinery orders supported the economists’ outlook. But, political developments and fiscal spending plans are likely to change the narrative, suggesting a USD/JPY pullback from current levels. Sentiment toward the BoJ’s rate path through H1 2026 will be key, given that most economists expect a rate hike in July.

The political uncertainty and fiscal concerns support a cautiously bullish short-term price outlook for USD/JPY. Meanwhile, warnings of yen interventions and expectations of Bank of Japan rate hikes reinforce the bearish medium-term projection. Hawkish BoJ rhetoric and intervention warnings would likely challenge the cautiously bullish short-term outlook.

China Adds Policy Uncertainty to the Policy and Economic Outlooks

Rising Japan-China tensions have added another layer of policy uncertainty into the mix. US tariffs and friction with China have led economists to predict slower growth and softer inflation in 2026.

Natixis Asia Pacific Chief Economist Alicia Garcia Herrero commented:

“All in all, Japan’s GDP is expected to slow to +0.9% in 2026 from +1.3% in 2025, dragged by higher US tariffs and tensions with China. […] With the Yen remaining relatively weak, inflation is expected to slow down only to +2.3% YoY in 2026 from +3.1% YoY in 2025.”

On the BoJ’s monetary policy stance, Alicia Garcia Herrero stated:

“With PM Takaichi’s strong preference for a lax monetary policy to realize her vision, the BoJ is likely to remain cautious in normalizing further. In fact, uncertainties are compounded by the political tension with China, raising the bar to hike. Nevertheless, the ongoing tug of war over policy normalization with the government is anticipated to keep the Yen stubbornly weak. These developments are expected to force the BoJ to hike by 25 bps, possibly in July, to stabilize the currency.”

The prospect of BoJ rate hikes and Fed rate cuts reinforces the bearish medium- to longer-term price trajectory.

US Trade Policy in Focus ahead of Key Economic Data

This week, investors should closely monitor developments on tariffs. A US Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the US administration’s tariff policies is imminent.

A court ruling that blocks tariffs would likely boost risk sentiment, easing demand for the US dollar. Furthermore, the removal of tariffs would improve global trade, benefiting Japanese exporters. These dynamics would likely overshadow the downward effect of removing tariffs on Japanese import prices and the yen, indicating a bearish USD/JPY outlook.

On Monday, US markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, with the Fed in its Blackout Period, leaving the USD/JPY exposed to geopolitical risks. President Trump announced tariffs on eight European countries on Saturday, January 17, in a bid to acquire Greenland, potentially escalating trade tensions. The eight countries included Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland.

Despite rising geopolitical tensions, expectations of multiple BoJ rate hikes and a new Fed Chair favoring lower interest rates suggest narrower US-Japan rate differentials. These factors reaffirm the bearish medium-term outlook for USD/JPY.

Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch

For USD/JPY price trends, traders should assess technicals and closely track the fundamentals.

Viewing the daily chart, USD/JPY remains above its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling bullish momentum. While technicals remain bullish, bearish fundamentals are developing, countering the technicals.

A break below 157 would expose the 50-day EMA and the 155 support level. A sustained fall through the 50-day EMA would indicate a bearish near-term trend reversal, bringing the 200-day EMA into play. If breached, 150 would be the next key support level.

Crucially, a sustained fall through the 50-day and 200-day EMAs would reaffirm the bearish medium-term price outlook.

Created on January 18, 2026

Traders of the GBP/USD will have to decide on their personal perspectives while judging technical, fundamental and behavioral sentiment this coming week.

The highs seen on the 6th of January touched values last seen in September of 2025, but remained far below the apex highs attained then and in the month of June when the 1.37000 value was penetrated. However, the recent lower price action in the GBP/USD is still within the lower middle crux of the currency pair’s value via a one month chart. And near higher elements when a GBP/USD three month technical glance is taken.

The U.K still is producing rather lackluster economic data, this Tuesday employment data will come from Britain, and inflation via CPI statistics will be published on Wednesday. Yet, U.S data and influence via USD centric action remains the dominant force with the GBP. U.S economic data via its inflation statistics were rather mixed, but the most recent releases (October and November data were released last week at the same time due to the U.S government shutdown a couple of months ago) showed inflation remained rather tame – this if you looked at the November results.

However, this point can be argued and certainly did not impact the USD with weakness. In fact the USD got stronger and the downwards price of action of the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD reflected this trend. It can be said that more risk adverse attitudes in the financial markets caused the selloff of the GBP/USD, which picked up moment from late Tuesday and into the remainder of the week. The close of nearly 1.33764 is traversing territory last seen around the 19th of December.

The U.S Federal Reserve is suffering from a rather public debate in its FOMC about the direction of interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and President Trump are engaged in a rather unprecedented tussle regarding policy.

• The firefight President Trump is trying to start with the Fed may have financial institutions rather nervous about short and near-term effects on the USD.
• The Fed will conduct its next FOMC meeting the end of January, and not many analysts are predicting a rate cut in this upcoming meeting.
• Also the threat of escalating tension in the Middle East due to the Iranian situation has likely increased nervousness with financial institutions, this as they look forward and deal with near-term commercial cash positions.

Day traders and financial institutions may both feel that the GBP/USD is oversold at its current levels, but nervous sentiment early this coming week should be watched. Depending on news developments the USD could see rather volatile price action due to rhetoric which could influence sentiment rather dramatically in the near-term. If global conditions remain tranquil this could help ease tensions among large institutions, but this doesn’t feel likely. This weekend has produced loud noise regarding threats of more tariffs against Europe due to political diatribes from President Trump about Greenland once again, yes, believe it or not. Thus, large traders are getting hit from many directions regarding noise in the markets.

Also it should be remembered that President Trump is scheduled to speak in the middle of this week at the Davos summit in Switzerland. Trump could engage in a calm tranquil policy speech, or he could easily veer off into rhetoric which makes financial markets nervous. If nervousness wins the day, this could create downwards trajectory for the GBP/USD. Although the GBP/USD may be thought of as being oversold for the moment, looking for sustained upside this coming week may be difficult. Short, quick hitting wagers are recommended for day traders depending on the their perspectives and sentiment shifts which are a certainty.

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• The GBP/USD weekly forecast edges down, as the pair closed the week below 1.3400 amid upbeat US data and risk-off sentiment.
• Markets await key data from both sides to gauge a fresh directional move.
• Technically, the price is leaning to the downside, eyeing 1.3200 if downside pressure sustains.

GBP/USD closed last week on the defensive below 1.3400, paring weekly gains despite a mildly positive data surprise from the UK. The release of UK GDP m/m showed modest growth, but the data failed to trigger sustained buying interest in sterling.

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Markets mainly interpreted the improvement as technical rather than structural, which aligns with the assumption that UK growth is sluggish when money is tight. GBP bulls were uncertain; therefore, the rising momentum faded.

The dollar has better fundamentals in the US. Producer Price Index, Retail Sales, and Initial Jobless Claims all exceeded expectations, indicating a healthy US economy. These disclosures lowered expectations that the Fed would cut rates soon, raising Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar.

A defensive bid for the dollar followed increased geopolitical concerns over Iran, which made people less risk-taking. This accelerated GBP/USD’s decline at week’s end.

GBP/USD Key Events Next Week

The next week will be full of important UK data releases that could set the pound’s course in the near future. The Claimant Count numbers will give us an idea of how the job market is doing, and the Retail Sales and CPI numbers will be crucial for setting expectations for Bank of England rates. Markets will pay close attention to inflation data, especially for signs that prices are easing. Flash PMIs will give us a timely snapshot of business activity in key sectors later this week.

On the US side, investors are now looking at GDP, Core PCE, and Flash PMIs. The Fed still likes Core PCE as an inflation measure, and an unexpected rise could support the view that prices will remain high for a long time. GDP data will help us determine whether the recent strength is widespread or is slowing.

In general, GBP/USD is sliding lower unless UK data clearly beats expectations and US inflation signals weaken. The dollar is still in charge for now, especially given the world’s greater uncertainty.

GBP/USD Weekly Technical Forecast: Make or Break at 100-MA

GBP/USD is consolidating after a rejection from the 1.3550-1.3600 resistance zone, suggesting bullish momentum is fading. The price is below both the 20- and 50-day MA, which are flattening. This supports a neutral to mildly bearish bias. RSI is moving toward the middle line, indicating the market is consolidating rather than continuing its trend.

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The 100-day MA near 1.3360 is a key support level. If the market closes below this level every day, it will open up to 1.3250-1.3200. On the upside, 1.3450-1.3500 is immediate resistance, followed by 1.3600. If the price breaks through this level, it will gain momentum toward 1.3750.

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Copper price provided a new negative close below the barrier at$5.9700, announcing to delay the bullish attack, to begin activating the bearish corrective trend by reaching $5.7900 initially, approaching the initial suggested target in the previous report.

Stochastic exit from the overbought level will increase the negative pressure on the price, which makes us keep the bearish corrective suggestion, to expect targeting $5.6000 level, to press on the extra support at $5.5100.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.6000 and$5.8600

Trend forecast: Bearish correctly