Created on March 24, 2025

• The British pound has fallen pretty significantly against the US dollar on Friday, as we are now testing the 1.29 level.
• I think at this point in time, if we break down below 1.2850, then we could see a little bit deeper correction.
• This does make a certain amount of sense because the dollar had been sold off so viciously that it was either going to zero or we were going to see a little bit of stability reenter the market.

The size of that candlestick is ugly, but it is worth noting that the euro has had three negative days in a row, whereas the British pound has only had two. It’s worth noting that the 50-day EMA is turning around to break above the 200-day EMA, kicking off the so-called Golden Cross. So longer term, people will be looking at this through the prism of perhaps buying and holding. But I think this is a scenario that you need to watch a little closer, because quite frankly, we just had the Monetary Policy Committee release its voting record, and there was only one of them calling for a rate cut instead of the expected two.

MPC Slightly More Hawkish

That was a little bit more hawkish than anticipated, and we have fallen since then. Whether or not we actually truly break down below the support at 1.2850 remains to be seen. But as goes the euro, will this pair go as well? From what I see, this is a dollar-wide move across the forex markets. There’s also the possibility that we turn around and bounce.

And if we do, then we’re in a situation where I think we’re just working off some of this froth. It’s clear to me that the 1.30 level is an area that is going to continue to be difficult to break above, but if and when we do, that would be a very positive sign. It would probably mean that the British pound goes looking to the 1.35 level. Regardless, a breakdown from here probably would challenge the 1.2750 level, which at that point in time would probably be right around the same place the moving averages are.

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Created on March 24, 2025

• For three consecutive trading sessions, the EUR/USD currency pair has been experiencing selloffs with losses down to the 1.0796 support level, abandoning the upward rebound gains of the past week.
• This reached the 1.0955 resistance level, the highest for the pair in five months.
• Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair will start the new week’s trading stable around the 1.0812 level.
• Therefore, the Euro’s gains have evaporated following the announcement of fiscal stimulus for the largest economy in the Eurozone.

Euro Performance Seeks Stimulus

According to Forex currency market trading, the Euro price has fluctuated against most major currencies, declining against many of them, but remaining calm elsewhere, despite cautious trading conditions. Regardless of the Euro’s safe-haven status and some positive comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, the single currency has struggled to attract new buy orders. This is primarily due to the rise in the US dollar (USD), which has limited the Euro’s gains due to its negative correlation.

Will Tariffs Support the US Dollar’s Strength?

According to Citibank’s currency market analysis team, the US dollar will benefit from a series of tariff measures scheduled to be announced on April 2. The announcement of reciprocal tariffs will be the largest during Donald Trump’s second term, with analysts expecting significant ramifications for global financial markets. Accordingly, the analysts stated, “We maintain our expectations for a US dollar rebound in the second quarter. The risks of tariffs appear understated, and we expect a correction in the US dollar’s depreciation with a hawkish announcement on April 2.”

This indicates that Citibank sees tariffs as positive for the US dollar, representing a deviation from recent price action that suggests otherwise. The implementation of tariffs in early March on Canadian and Mexican imports, as well as global steel and aluminium imports, led to weakness in US stock markets and the US dollar.

Decisively, the weakness of the US dollar has upended the assumption that tariffs support the dollar.

However, Citigroup believes the original plan remains valid, and that tariffs will support the US dollar.

Trading Tips:

Keep in mind, as we have often advised before, that the EUR/USD gains are prone to evaporate quickly, which has happened recently, and this strategy still stands. Obviously, this week’s trading may be quiet most of the time.

US Stocks Under Pressure from Trump’s Policies

According to recent trading and across stock trading platforms, US stock indices have been in steady decline for weeks due to uncertainty about the direction of the US economy. The trade war between the United States and its major trading partners threatens to exacerbate inflation and harm consumers and businesses alike. At the same time, US inflation remains consistently above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and tariffs could hinder the US central bank’s efforts to reduce inflation.

On the US tariff front, US President Donald Trump has set an April 2 deadline to impose further tariffs on trading partners. This comes on the heels of a series of other tariff deadlines that have been postponed, sometimes at the last minute.

Accordingly, companies have warned investors about tariffs, inflation, and growing uncertainty about their impact on costs.

On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its final meeting last week as it assessed the potential impact of tariffs and other shifts in US policy. The Fed had cut interest rates until the end of last year amid persistently low inflation, but has maintained them until 2025. Lower interest rates can support the economy, but they could also push inflation higher.

For his part, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that the US economy remains strong but stressed that uncertainty makes forecasting difficult.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:

Dear reader, according to the daily chart performance, if the bears succeed in moving the EUR/USD price below the 1.0800 psychological support level, the chances of a strong downward move towards lower levels will increase. The closest levels thereafter are 1.0760, 1.0690, and 1.0600, respectively. From the last level, the technical indicators will move towards strong oversold levels, led by the RSI and MACD. Conversely, and on the same time frame, the 1.1000 psychological resistance will remain the most important to confirm the upward reversal of the EUR/USD trend.

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March 24, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: “Bullish Outside Range Reversal” say Analysts

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate traded mostly flat on Monday as the UK and the US both released their respective preliminary S&P Global PMIs.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.2925, virtually unchanged from the start of Monday’s session.

Pound (GBP) Stays Strong despite Mixed PMIs

On Monday, the Pound (GBP) held steady against most of its major trading partners after the release of the UK’s preliminary PMI figures for March.

The latest manufacturing PMI declined more sharply than expected, dropping from 46.9 to 44.6, which was below the forecast of 46.4.

However, there was a bright spot in the services PMI, which saw a notable increase from 51 to 53.2, surpassing the anticipated decline to 50.9.

This improvement helped support GBP exchange rates at the beginning of the week.

US Dollar (USD) Slips following Domestic PMI Data

On Monday, the US Dollar (USD) weakened against most of its major counterparts following the release of the US’s preliminary S&P Global PMI data.

Much like the Pound, the US PMI figures for March were mixed.

The manufacturing sector saw a decline from 52.7 to 49.8, falling short of the expected 51.8.

In contrast, the services sector performed strongly, jumping from 51 to 54.3, which was better than the expected drop to 50.8.

Despite some positive remarks from US President Donald Trump regarding potential flexibility in global tariffs, the ‘Greenback’ failed to post any gains, as the overall market sentiment remained slightly optimistic.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: UK and US Data to Drive Movement

Looking ahead, the main driver of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate on Tuesday will likely be several economic releases from both the UK and the US.

The UK is scheduled to publish its latest CBI distributive trades figures for March, which are anticipated to show another decline.

If the data matches these forecasts and confirms further weakness in the sector, GBP exchange rates may come under pressure during Tuesday’s European trading session.

On the US side, the latest CB consumer confidence data will be released.

Similarly to the Pound, a decline in the index as expected could weaken the US Dollar on Tuesday.

According to FX strategists at Scotiabank on Monday, “GBPUSD short-term technicals are Bullish.”

“Sterling gains are developing strongly on the session.

“A solid rebound from the upper 1.28s has pushed through Friday’s intraday peak after the pound earlier set a minor new low.

“Price is carving out a bullish outside range reversal, in effect, countering the bearish price action that developed late last week.

“Look for gains to extend to the low 1.30s. Resistance is 1.3015 and 1.3120.”

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• USD/JPY rallies over 0.8% as US yields jump and risk sentiment improves.
• Price clears 150.00 and Kijun-Sen, RSI momentum favors further upside for bulls.
• 151.80–152.70 range now key resistance; failure to hold 150 risks deeper pullback.

The USD/JPY pair surged on Monday and climbed above the 150.00 mark for the first time since early March as tariff fears faded and US Treasury bond yields skyrocketed, pushing the major for over 0.81%.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY cleared key resistance levels on Monday: first, the Kijun-Sen at 149.47, followed by the 150.00 figure. Buyers are gathering momentum, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) punching through the 50 neutral line, suggesting that bulls could push prices past key strong resistance levels.

The 200-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) confluence, at 151.79/82, respectively, emerges as a crucial ceiling and could be tested in the near term. If surpassed, the next significant resistance level would be the Senkou Span B, at 152.71.

Conversely, if USD/JPY retreats below 150.00, immediate support would be the Kijun-Sen and the Senkou Span A at 149.28. A breach of the latter will expose the Tenkan-Sen at 149.08.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily

March 24, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Outlook Today: GBP Nears €1.20 vs EUR as Eurozone PMIs Disappoint

The Pound edged higher on the Euro on Monday following the release of PMI data from both the UK and the Eurozone.

At the time of writing, the Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trading at around €1.1961, up by nearly 0.2% from the start of Monday’s session.

The Euro (EUR) struggled to find support at the beginning of the week as investors reacted to disappointing PMI figures from the Eurozone.

Preliminary data for March revealed that the bloc’s services sector expanded at a slower-than-expected rate, while manufacturing activity remained in contraction territory, albeit at a reduced pace compared to February.

Overall, the figures indicated that the Eurozone’s private sector is growing at a sluggish pace, reinforcing concerns over the region’s economic recovery.

Economists suggest that the weak data may keep speculation alive regarding another potential European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate cut in April

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) saw modest gains as the UK’s own PMI readings exceeded expectations.

According to figures published by S&P Global, activity in the UK’s dominant services sector accelerated to a seven-month high in March. The index rose from 51 to 53.2, beating forecasts for a slight decline to 50.9.

While the strength of the services sector offered some reassurance about the UK’s economic outlook, analysts caution that overall growth remains fragile, with the first quarter of the year expected to see only marginal expansion of around 0.1%.

Looking ahead, the Pound Euro exchange rate may remain rangebound in the early part of the week as investors await UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s Spring Statement on Wednesday.

GBP traders anticipate that Reeves will announce a series of spending cuts aimed at restoring market confidence following the volatility in UK bond markets earlier this year. However, if the measures are perceived as a drag on economic growth, Sterling could face renewed pressure.

Meanwhile, the Euro could find support if Germany’s latest Ifo business climate index, due for release on Tuesday, shows a notable improvement in sentiment. Analysts hope that Germany’s increased investment in infrastructure and defence will lead to a more optimistic outlook, potentially lending strength to the single currency.

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Created on March 24, 2025

• For a short period, the bulls succeeded in pushing the USD/JPY currency pair towards the 150.00 psychological resistance level, which would support the bulls’ control over the trend, but the bulls did not find more momentum.
• Therefore, the USD/JPY pair moved downwards again towards the 148.18 support level and closed the week’s trading stable around the 149.30 level.
• Recently, the currency pair reacted to signals from global central bank officials regarding tightening or not, in addition to the reaction to the expansion of US trade wars.

The Path of US Tariffs

On April 2, 2025, the United States plans to implement a series of reciprocal tariffs aimed at aligning US import duties with those imposed by its trading partners. For example, if a country imposes a 20% tariff on US goods, the US will retaliate with a similar 20% tariff on imports from that country.

However, Trump also stated that he will impose tariffs on countries that impose a value-added tax – which is equivalent to sales tax in the US. It is clear that VAT is not an import tax, as it does not discriminate against domestic or foreign products and services. The fact that this falls within a specific scope indicates that Trump is looking to impose large tariffs on a range of packages to increase revenue for the US Treasury in his attempt to reduce the country’s growing deficit.

Trading Tips:

Be cautious as the USD/JPY pair is affected by several factors, and the upward reversal still has a lot of work to do to confirm it.

US Stock Markets Attempt to Recover Losses

During the last trading session of the past week and through stock trading companies’ platforms, US stock indices on Wall Street shook off a weak start and closed slightly higher, ending a four-week losing streak. According to trading, the S&P 500 index rose by 0.1%. The index ended the week with gains of 0.5%. It is still down 4.8% so far this month. At the same time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average achieved slight gains of 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 0.5%.

According to performance, technology stocks, which were the heaviest in the market at the start of trading, rebounded to recover a large portion of the declines in other sectors of the S&P 500. This sector has been the focus of most of the intense selloffs the market has seen recently, reversing its gains that led the market during the previous year. These stocks are among the most valuable on Wall Street and have significant impacts on market performance.

According to stock prices, Apple shares rose about 2%, while Microsoft shares rose 1.1%. Nvidia, a major technology company, fell 0.7%. Meanwhile, Micron Technology shares fell 8% to record the largest decline among S&P 500 stocks.

In general, US stocks have been declining steadily for weeks due to uncertainty about the direction of the US economy. The trade war between the US and its major trading partners threatens to exacerbate inflation and harm consumers and businesses alike. Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target, and tariffs could hinder the Fed’s efforts to lower the inflation rate.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

According to the daily chart performance, the general trend for the USD/JPY currency pair is still at the beginning of an upward reversal. As we mentioned before, moving above the 150.00 psychological resistance will motivate the bulls to move strongly upward. The next peaks on that time frame will be 150.90, 151.70, and 152.60, respectively. Conversely, and on the same time frame, the 147.70 support level will remain the most important for a new control of the bears and the evaporation of recent upward hopes.

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Created on March 24, 2025

• The recent selloffs experienced by the GBP/USD currency pair did not take it out of the upward channel that was recently formed and supported the pair’s move towards the 1.3015 resistance level, the highest for the pair in more than four months.
• The recent selling losses did not exceed the 1.2888 level before closing the week’s trading stable around the 1.2916 level.
• As we mentioned before, the 1.3000 psychological resistance will remain the most important for bulls to control and prepare for stronger upward breakouts.

Bank of England Cautious in Making Any Changes

Last week, the Bank of England kept the main interest rate in Britain unchanged at 4.50%, despite weak British economic growth and the country facing further uncertainty in light of the tariff policies approved by the Trump administration in the United States. In general, the decision of the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee was widely expected and came a day after the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged.

The meeting minutes showed that eight members voted to keep the policy unchanged, with one member supporting a quarter-percentage-point cut. The interest rate-setting committee reduced the Bank of England’s main interest rate from its 16-year high of 5.25% by a quarter-percentage-point on three occasions since last August, the most recent being in February, after inflation fell from its multi-decade highs, which exceeded 10%, reached in the wake of the sharp rise in energy prices following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

However, UK inflation, at 3%, remains above the Bank’s 2% target and is expected to rise further in the coming months, even without taking into account any tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Many economists believe it could rise to 4% in the coming months, as companies raise prices due to the large increase in the minimum wage and higher payroll taxes. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey stated, “There is considerable economic uncertainty at the moment. We continue to believe that interest rates are on a gradual downward trajectory, but we have kept them at 4.5% so far.”

In general, if policymakers continue their recent gradual approach, another cut is likely in May, when they will see the bank’s latest economic forecasts. Bailey added that rate-setters “will closely monitor the development of global and domestic economies” and that whatever happens, “it is our duty to ensure that inflation remains low and stable.”

Trading Tips:

The Pound Sterling is still in a strong and good position compared to other European currencies, as Britain avoiding US tariffs will support the Pound’s gains against other major currencies.

The British economy, the sixth largest in the world, achieved modest growth of 0.1% in the last quarter, a very disappointing result for the new Labor Party government, which made boosting growth its primary economic policy. Since the global financial crisis in 2008-2009, British economic growth has performed significantly below its long-term average.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to the daily chart performance, and as we mentioned before, the 1.3000 psychological resistance will remain the most important for the upward reversal of the GBP/USD pair, which is closest to the level. Technically, the current upward trend will not be breached without the bears moving the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.2860 and 1.2745 support levels, respectively. So far, the direction of the technical indicators, the RSI and MACD, is upward. The GBP/USD pair will react today to the announcement of the PMI readings for the manufacturing and services sectors for both Britain and the United States, followed by new statements from the Governor of the Bank of England. Not to mention the extent of investors’ risk appetite.

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• The USD/CAD forecast shows caution ahead of more US tariffs.

• Data on Friday revealed weaker-than-expected consumer spending in Canada.

• Experts believe the dollar will recover with more tariffs.

The USD/CAD forecast shows caution as market participants await clarity on Trump’s next tariff moves. The Canadian dollar ended last week higher but remains vulnerable as traders prepare for a 25% tariff on Canadian goods starting in April. Meanwhile, experts believe the dollar might rebound with more tariffs, supporting Treasury yields.

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The loonie fell on Friday after data revealed weaker-than-expected consumer spending in Canada. Retail sales dropped by 0.6% compared to estimates of a 0.4% decline. The poor report increased expectations of more Bank of Canada rate cuts. At the same time, uncertainty about looming Trump tariffs weighed on the Canadian dollar last week. Trump suspended a 25% tariff on Canada until April. With the start date looming, the outlook for Canada’s economy is dimming. 

However, there was some relief for Canada’s currency as Wall Street rebounded amid hopes of a softer tariff stance. Trump said he might be open to some flexibility on tariffs. 

On the other hand, experts believe the dollar will recover with more tariffs. Last week, the greenback rebounded after the Fed meeting, which revealed caution among policymakers. More tariffs will likely support Treasury yields, allowing the dollar to recover.

USD/CAD key events today

• Flash Manufacturing PMI
• Flash Services PMI

USD/CAD technical forecast: Price pauses near the 30-SMA support

On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is facing the 30-SMA line after finding resistance at the 1.4400 resistance level. However, bulls are still in the lead because the price trades slightly above the SMA. 

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On a larger scale, the price is trading in a range between the 1.4275 support and the 1.4525 resistance levels. Moreover, the range has a strong midpoint at the 1.4400 key level. USD/CAD recently retested the range support, which held firm. After this, the price broke above the SMA but paused at the range midpoint. 

If the price breaks below the SMA, bears will make another attempt at the range support. A breakout will signal the start of a bearish trend. On the other hand, bulls might return to push the price off the 30-SMA and above the 1.4400 resistance. This would allow a retest of the range resistance.

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Trade Policy Uncertainty Limits Dollar Upside

Despite recent hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who pointed to a strong labor market and inflation nearing target, the dollar is struggling to maintain momentum. Powell’s remarks reinforced the Fed’s cautious tone but did little to lift the dollar amid conflicting policy signals.

President Trump’s tariff policy remains a source of uncertainty. Earlier this month, his administration proposed imposing significant fees on China-linked shipping, a move that has disrupted supply chains and pressured key U.S. sectors, including agriculture and energy.

Investors are now waiting to see if these trade stances soften following reports of renewed talks with Chinese officials.

Geopolitical Talks Ease Tensions, but Dollar Remains Vulnerable

Geopolitical developments have offered some support to risk sentiment, but not enough to drive sustained strength in the dollar. Over the weekend, U.S. and Ukrainian officials met in Riyadh, with the Biden administration pushing for a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict.

Further discussions between U.S. and Russian representatives are expected later today. While these talks reduce short-term geopolitical risk, the dollar remains under pressure amid persistent concerns around trade policy and global economic growth.

Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. PMI readings and a scheduled speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at 6:00 PM GMT for further direction.