The EUR/USD pair edged higher in intraday trading after the pivotal support of $1.0820 held on, which represents the neckline of a negative technical pattern that formed in the short term, the Double Top pattern, lending the price some positive momentum which helped it pare some earlier losses, while the price also tries to vent off oversold saturation in the Stochastic as it starts to send out positive signals. 

It comes after the price pierced a secondary upward trend line, trespassing with this negative move the 50-candle SMA and exposing the price to mounting pressure, with an increasing potential for the downward correctional trend to dominate upcoming trading. 

March 20, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP Drifts Lower vs USD on BoE Rate Hold

The Pound was on the defensive against the US Dollar on Thursday following the release of the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest interest rate decision.

At the time of writing, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate was trading at approximately $1.2965, down roughly 0.3% from the start of Thursday’s session.

Despite facing a downturn against the US Dollar (USD) due to the negative trading environment on Thursday, the Pound (GBP) managed to gain ground against most of its major trading partners.

This positive movement came in the wake of the Bank of England’s recent interest rate decision.

As widely anticipated, the central bank maintained the interest rates at 4.5%, a decision that provided a boost to the Pound.

The bank’s hawkish stance further reinforced confidence in Sterling, as it clearly communicated its commitment to a gradual and cautious approach in removing policy restraint.

On Thursday, the US Dollar climbed against most of its peers, even in the absence of any significant domestic data releases.

The ‘Greenback’s’ rise was mainly driven by the day’s market mood, which turned more risk-averse.

This shift in sentiment bolstered the safe-haven USD, particularly against riskier currencies, enabling the US Dollar to attract buyers despite the lack of economic catalysts.

Looking ahead, the main driver of movement for the Pound US Dollar exchange rate on Friday will likely be an economic data release from the UK.

The UK is set to publish its latest GfK consumer confidence index for March. If the data aligns with the expected decline, the Pound could face pressure and weaken by the end of the week.

On the US Dollar side, there are no domestic data releases scheduled for Friday, so the ‘Greenback’ is likely to trade primarily based on market sentiment as the week concludes.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• EUR/USD added to Wednesday’s decline and approached 1.0800.
• The US Dollar gathered extra steam and rose to weekly peaks.
• The ECB’s Lagarde warned against a US-EU trade war.

EUR/USD extended its retreat from recent yearly highs on Thursday, dipping into the 1.0820-1.0810 range as the US Dollar (USD) regained ground. The Greenback’s rebound propelled the US Dollar Index (DXY) above the 104.00 mark, buoyed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks suggesting no rush to continue cutting rates.

Trade tensions keep the Greenback in check 

Lingering anxiety over US trade policy continues to influence market sentiment, driven by President Trump’s unpredictable approach to tariffs. Although Canada and Mexico secured a temporary reprieve until April 2, fears of a global trade war remain, overshadowing growth prospects and clouding the Fed’s policy outlook.

Tariffs can fuel inflation, potentially pushing the Fed to keep a tight grip on its monetary policy. At the same time, they threaten to erode economic momentum—creating a tug-of-war that leaves the near-term direction of the US Dollar uncertain.

Peace talks on the Russia-Ukraine front should help the Euro 

The Euro (EUR) has found additional support on signs of progress in the Russia-Ukraine peace process. The Kremlin recently announced that Russian President V. Putin accepted US President D. Trump’s proposal for a 30-day pause on attacks against energy infrastructure, following a nearly two-hour phone call between the two leaders.

Central banks in the spotlight 

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, as widely forecast, but signalled plans to cut rates by a total of 50 basis points before year-end, citing slowing economic activity and an eventual dip in inflation. While officials raised their 2025 inflation outlook to 2.7% (up from 2.5% in December), they lowered this year’s growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.1% and projected a slight uptick in unemployment by year-end. Policymakers also cautioned that economic risks remain “unusually elevated.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that inflation’s retreat might be delayed in part by rising price pressures tied to US tariffs. While he acknowledged the possibility that tariffs are already pushing prices higher, he emphasized that the ultimate impact on consumer behaviour and inflation expectations remains uncertain. Powell reiterated there is no rush to reduce rates further unless conditions deteriorate.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) recently lowered key rates by 25 basis points and hinted at additional easing if uncertainty persists. Policymakers trimmed Eurozone growth forecasts and nudged near-term inflation estimates higher, although they still expect price pressures to moderate by 2026. At the same time, speculation that the ECB might pause its easing cycle has added another layer of complexity for the Euro’s trajectory.

ECB President Christine Lagarde cautioned on Wednesday that a potential US-EU trade war could shave as much as 0.5 percentage points off eurozone growth if both tariffs and retaliatory measures escalate, though she added that deeper trade integration could more than compensate for those losses. Acknowledging the inherent uncertainty of such projections, Lagarde stressed the ECB’s readiness to protect price stability. She also praised Germany’s newly announced spending initiatives, despite the upward pressure on bond yields.

EUR/USD technical outlook 

Immediate resistance lies at the YTD high of 1.0954 (March 18). A firm break above that level would target 1.0969 (the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and could pave the way for a test of the psychological 1.1000 barrier.

On the downside, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0728 acts as initial support, followed by the provisional 100-day SMA at 1.0522 and the 55-day SMA at 1.0498. Below these levels are 1.0359 (the February 28 low), 1.0282 (the February 10 low), 1.0209 (the February 3 low), and the 2025 bottom of1.0176 (January 13).

Momentum signals remain somewhat bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sitting around 62, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 32 indicating a strengthening uptrend.

EUR/USD daily chart

What to Watch Next 

EUR/USD is likely to remain sensitive to trade-related headlines, central bank developments, and the broader Eurozone growth narrative—particularly as Germany ramps up fiscal spending. Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace efforts could also shift market sentiment rapidly. Traders should stay alert to both geopolitical news and major economic releases, which could redefine near-term direction for the pair.

February 28, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Rate Today: GBP/EUR Subdued Ahead of German Economic Data

The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate was trapped in a narrow range on Thursday despite the release of some forecast-beating data from the Eurozone.

At the time of writing, the GBP/EUR was trading at around €1.2096, virtually unchanged from Thursday’s opening levels.

On Thursday, the Euro (EUR) was mostly rangebound against most of its major trading partners following the release of the Eurozone’s latest economic sentiment indicator.

The index for February exceeded market expectations, climbing from 95.3 to 96.3, surpassing the anticipated modest rise to 96.

This figure represented a five-month high and indicated a significant improvement in the bloc’s economic sentiment.

Nevertheless, despite the positive economic data, the Euro failed to gain momentum and stayed largely unchanged against its main counterparts.

On Thursday, the Pound (GBP) once again faced difficulty attracting buyers as a continued lack of domestic data releases this week left the Sterling without a clear direction.

Adding to the Pound’s woes was a cautious market sentiment on Thursday.

Given the currency’s heightened sensitivity to risk, the anxious trading environment and the absence of economic catalysts pressured GBP exchange rates.

Looking ahead to Friday, the primary factor influencing the Pound Euro exchange rate will likely be the release of further economic data from the Eurozone.

Germany is set to publish its January retail sales index and its February unemployment rate.

Retail sales are anticipated to rebound, rising from -1.6% to 0%, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 6.2%.

If the data aligns with expectations and shows mixed results in the Eurozone’s largest economy, the Euro could close the week on a weaker note.

For the Pound, the UK will not be releasing any economic data on Friday, which is likely to leave GBP exchange rates without a clear direction again.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts

Created on March 20, 2025

• For three consecutive trading sessions, the GBP/USD exchange rate has stabilized around and above the 1.3000 psychological resistance.
• It is confirming the strength of the upward reversal with gains reaching the 1.3011 resistance level, the highest for the currency pair in four months.
• Its gains are stable at the time of writing this analysis, after the reaction of markets and investors to the US Federal Reserve’s announcement to keep US interest rates unchanged as expected.

Will GBP/USD Stabilize Above 1.30 in the Coming Days?

According to Forex market trading and through licensed currency trading companies’ platforms, the GBP/USD pair has failed to hold above this key level of 1.30, indicating a drain in the upward trend, as many technical indicators point to an “overbought” state. Furthermore, a significant decline in the coming weeks cannot be ruled out if the Pound Sterling continues to fluctuate around these levels.

In general, those wishing to buy the US dollar should consider placing automatic buy orders at various levels before 1.30 to cover at least half of their exposure. Holding onto a portion of this cash also makes sense, as 1.30 appears likely to eventually decline given current trends. According to currency market experts, “The $1.30 level is a crucial psychological level, and crossing it could lead to a significant upward movement, as happened in August of last year. Currency experts then see the possibility of a move to the highs of 1.3045 and 1.3130, respectively.”

Trading Tips:

Sterling’s gains will react strongly to the Bank of England’s announcement today, so be cautious. Its gains may increase, or it may be subject to profit-taking selloffs.

The British pound is cautiously awaiting the Bank of England announcement.

According to Forex market trading, the Pound Sterling (GBP) is trading cautiously as its investors refrain from making any bold bets ahead of the Bank of England’s interest rate decision today, Thursday. Like the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England is also expected to keep its monetary policy unchanged this month, after cutting interest rates following the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in February.

Previously, the Pound investors expected the next rate cut by the Bank to come in May. However, since then, we have seen There are signs of rising inflationary pressures in the UK. If this prompts the Bank to downplay the likelihood of an interest rate cut in May, the pound could rise.

Going into the second half of the week, it seems reasonable to assume that the Bank of England’s interest rate decision will be the main catalyst for the pound’s exchange rate against the US dollar. However, before the Bank of England announces its policy, the UK will also release its latest jobs data on Thursday morning. Economists expect the UK jobs figures for January to show a stable unemployment rate, with slower wage growth.

Ultimately, a decline in wage growth may weaken the Pound Sterling if it is considered additional pressure on the Bank of England to ease its monetary policy.

Technical Analysis for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to the daily chart performance, the 1.30 psychological resistance will remain an important symbol of bulls’ control over the GBP/USD currency pair trend. At the same time, technical indicators will begin to give strong overbought signals if bulls succeed in moving towards the 1.3055 and 1.3140 peaks, respectively. Conversely, and on the same time frame, the 1.2785 support will remain the most important to exit the current upward channel.

The GBP/USD pair will be affected today by the Bank of England’s announcement, then the announcement of the US weekly jobless claims reading and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index reading, in addition to the extent of investors’ risk appetite and the performance of global financial markets.

Ready to trade our GBP/USD daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best regulated forex brokers UK in the industry for you

Created on March 20, 2025

• During yesterday’s trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair experienced performance volatility as currency investors reacted to global central bank announcements.
• Regarding the pair, the Bank of Japan’s announcement was at the beginning of the trading day, followed by the US Federal Reserve’s announcement at the end of the trading day.
• This explains the USD/JPY pair’s upward rebound towards the 150.15 resistance and then the quick return downwards to the 148.60 support level before stabilizing around the 148.52 level at the beginning of Thursday’s trading session.

Yen Price Falls Due to Bank of Japan’s Hesitation

According to Forex market trading, the Japanese yen declined following the Bank of Japan’s recent monetary policy decision. The bank kept its key interest rate at 0.50% but made no commitment to the possibility of another rate hike, suggesting its guidance has passed its “peak hawkishness.” For the yen to revitalize its 2025 outperformance, financial markets may have been hoping the bank would encourage market expectations of a 25-basis point rate hike. Instead, the next rate hike is set for September, following the midweek monetary policy update, which saw the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously vote to keep Japanese interest rates unchanged.

According to currency prices and reliable trading platforms, the limited scope for further upward revisions to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate forecasts reduces the yen’s chances of rallying. The GBP/JPY exchange rate fluctuated in a wide range around 194.27 following the decision, but has since risen slightly, continuing the upward trend that began in late February. The USD/JPY exchange rate also rose to 149.86, its highest level since the beginning of the month.

In general, the decision to keep Japanese interest rates unchanged was unanimous, and the guidance confirmed the possibility of raising them again if economic activity forecasts warrant such action. The bank added in its policy statement: “Significant uncertainties remain regarding the Japanese economic activity and prices, including the developments of the trade situation.” Market prices indicate that the bank’s terminal interest rate is between 1.00% and 1.25% over the next two years. A full 25-basis-point interest rate hike is expected in September. Like all global central banks, the Bank of Japan is cautiously monitoring US tariff policy, which is a major source of uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Governor Ueda will feel that this is not the right time to announce any major commitments given this uncertainty.

Trading Tips:

Keep in mind that the 150.00 psychological resistance is the most important for the return of bulls’ control over the USD/JPY trend, and the buying strategy remains the best.

The US Federal Reserve maintains interest rates.

According to yesterday’s announcement, the US Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged and indicated that it still expects two US interest rate cuts this year, even as inflation continues to rise sharply. The US central bank now also expects the US economy to grow at a slower pace this year and next compared to three months ago, according to a set of quarterly economic forecasts. US growth is expected to slow to just 1.7% in 2025, down from 2.8% last year, and 1.8% in 2026. Policymakers also expect inflation to rise slightly, reaching 2.7% by the end of 2025 from its current level of 2.5%. Both are above the US central bank’s target of 2%.

Although the US Federal Reserve maintained its forecast for two rate cuts, economists pointed to subtle indications that the US central bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for some time. This is likely to keep borrowing costs on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards unchanged in the coming months.

For their part, eight of the nineteen Fed officials confirmed that they expect only one rate cut or zero this year, up from just four in December.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:

According to daily chart trading, the USD/JPY currency pair is still at the beginning of an upward reversal. Technically, the stability above the 150.00 psychological resistance will continue to motivate bulls for further progress. At the same time, the 147.70 support level will remain a real threat to the upward reversal. We still prefer buying the USD/JPY at every dip, but without risk and distributing the trading amount over several trades from lower levels.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

• EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure after snapping a three-day winning streak on Wednesday.
• The pair could push lower if 1.0830 support fails.
• The Federal Reserve left the policy rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% as expected.

EUR/USD struggles to find a foothold and declines toward 1.0850 in the European session on Thursday, after snapping a three-day winning streak on Wednesday. The pair’s technical outlook points to a bearish tilt in the near term.

The US Dollar gathers strength and weighs on EUR/USD as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcements.

Following the March policy meeting, the Fed decided to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5%, as widely anticipated. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), also known as the dot plot, showed that policymakers were still projecting a 50 basis points (bps) cut in rates in 2025.

While speaking on the policy outlook, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that they will not be in a hurry to move on rate cuts and added that they can maintain policy restraint for longer if the economy remains strong. The US Dollar (USD) held its ground following these comments and started to outperform its rivals on Thursday.

Later in the session, the US Department of Labor will publish the weekly Initial Jobless Claims data. A significant increase in this data could limit the USD’s gains and help EUR/USD find support.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly below 40 and EUR/USD trades near 1.0830, where the lower limit of the ascending regression channel is located. In case this support fails, technical sellers could take action and open the door for an extended declined toward 1.0730 (200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), static level)  and 1.0700 (static level, round level).

Looking north, resistances could be seen at 1.0900 (static level, round level), 1.0950 (static level) and 1.1000 (mid-point of the ascending channel).

• GBP/JPY extends the overnight pullback from the vicinity of over a two-month high.
• BoJ rate hike bets and the flight to safety underpin the JPY, exerting some pressure.
• A mixed technical setup warrants caution for bulls ahead of the BoE policy decision. 

The GBP/JPY cross attracts sellers for the second successive day on Thursday and extends this week’s retracement slide from the vicinity of the 195.00 psychological mark, or over a two-month high. Spot prices weaken further below the 193.00 round figure during the Asian session and seem vulnerable to slide further amid a broadly stronger Japanese Yen (JPY).

Expectations that strong wage growth could boost consumer spending and contribute to rising inflation give the Bank of Japan (BoJ) headroom to keep hiking interest rates. Apart from this, the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s trade policies and geopolitical risks underpin the safe-haven JPY, which, in turn, is seen exerting pressure on the GBP/JPY cross. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, struggles to gain any traction as traders opt to wait for the Bank of England (BoE) decision. 

From a technical perspective, spot price earlier this week struggled to find acceptance above the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the subsequent fall could be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. That said, oscillators on the daily chart are still holding in positive territory. Adding to this, the recent breakout through the 192.50 horizontal resistance warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciating move heading into the key central bank event risk.

In the meantime, the aforementioned resistance breakpoint could protect the immediate downside, below which the GBP/JPY cross could accelerate the slide towards the 192.00 mark en route to the 191.35-191.30 support zone. Some follow-through selling has the potential to drag spot prices below the 191.00 round figure, towards the next relevant support near the 190.45-190.40 area en route to the 190.00 psychological mark and the 189.70-189.65 region. 

On the flip side, any positive move might now confront resistance near the 194.00 round-figure mark ahead of the 200-day SMA, currently pegged around the 194.30 region. This is followed by the 194.90 region, or a multi-month peak touched earlier this week, which if cleared decisively should pave the way for additional gains. The GBP/JPY cross might then climb to the 196.00 mark en route to the 196.40 horizontal zone before aiming to reclaim the 197.00 round figure for the first time since January. 

GBP/JPY daily chart

The GBP/USDpair rose in intraday trading and pierced the resistance of $1.2985, buoyed by trading within a secondary price channel, and under the dominance of the main upward trend, with positive signals from the Stochastic after the pair vented off overbought saturation that was apparent previously, with ongoing positive support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA. 

The GBP/USDpair rose in intraday trading and pierced the resistance of $1.2985, buoyed by trading within a secondary price channel, and under the dominance of the main upward trend, with positive signals from the Stochastic after the pair vented off overbought saturation that was apparent previously, with ongoing positive support due to trading above the 50-candle SMA.