USD/JPY near 159 is testing Yen bulls as Natixis and MUFG back a September BoJ hike, with Himino and US inflation data next in focus.

The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate ended Friday at 158.98, almost five Yen below July’s peak near 164 but still uncomfortably high for Tokyo after the latest policy response.

The joint US-Japan intervention drove USD/JPY as low as 155.27 at the end of July, yet much of that Yen recovery has since disappeared.

USD/JPY rose 0.89% during August and spent most of last week back around 159, despite a substantial increase in expectations that the Bank of Japan will tighten policy next month.

Natixis and MUFG economists now agree that September should deliver another rate increase, although the stubborn behaviour of the exchange rate makes the harder question obvious: how much BoJ tightening will actually be needed to produce a lasting Yen recovery?

Analysts at Natixis have brought forward its previous October call and now expect a 25-basis-point hike to 1.25% on 18 September.

“The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is set to raise the policy rate by 25-bps on September 18th, as inflation pressure strengthens,” economists Alicia García Herrero and Kohei Iwahara said.

The inflation case has strengthened quickly.

Nationwide headline inflation rose to 1.9% year-on-year in July from 1.6%, while inflation excluding food and energy increased to 1.4% from 1.2%.

Natixis also points to a striking 29.1% annual increase in import prices, with expensive energy and the weak Yen increasingly feeding into domestic costs.

Manufactured-goods inflation accelerated to 3.2%, while general-services inflation edged up to 1.4%.

“These results suggest that the lag in the transmission of import inflation on CPI could be shorter than six to twelve months,” Natixis said, arguing that the developments “justify the BoJ’s concern on upside risk of inflation.”

There is a political element to the forecast as well.

Natixis believes the Japanese government has become more accepting of faster monetary tightening following Washington’s decision to participate in the Yen intervention.

With USD/JPY already back around 159, policymakers have little reason to assume currency intervention on its own has solved the problem.

Natixis argues that the government could conclude “that a bolder BoJ is needed to prop up the Yen back to reasonable levels and, thus, limit the pass through to inflation.”

The bank’s new path extends beyond September, with additional hikes expected in January and July 2027 taking the policy rate to 1.75%.

“All in all, the BoJ is anticipated to hike by 25-bps to 1.25% in September, earlier than our previous call of October,” Natixis said.

Governor Kazuo Ueda had already warned about upside inflation risks at the July meeting, and Natixis believes events have caught up with that warning.

“That risk has materialized with today’s CPI inflation so the hike should happen, all the more so given the renewed Yen weakness,” the bank concluded.

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USD/JPY remains well below the late-July peak near 164, although the recovery from 155.27 has taken the pair back towards 159 and left the Yen struggling to extend its intervention-driven gains.

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny also thinks the latest Japanese inflation figures support action in September.

“The data backs up current market pricing, and our view, that the BoJ will hike rates by 25bps at the next policy meeting in September,” MUFG said.

Market pricing at the end of last week implied roughly an 80% probability of such a move, which means a September hike is rapidly shifting from hawkish surprise towards base case.

That perhaps explains why the Yen has reacted so poorly to the repricing.

“Stronger inflation in Japan has had a limited FX impact with USD/JPY stable,” MUFG noted.

Higher Japanese government bond yields have not produced much more encouragement either, suggesting that investors want evidence of a genuine tightening cycle rather than another isolated 25-basis-point move.

We’ve previously looked at whether intervention has changed the underlying USD/JPY trend; the recovery towards 159 keeps that argument very much open.

USD/JPY Week Ahead: Himino Has a Chance to Strengthen the Message

MUFG sees Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s next appearance as an important opportunity for the BoJ to make its September intentions clearer.

“There has been limited opportunities for guidance from the BoJ of late but next Friday Deputy Governor Himino is scheduled to speak and that could be an opportunity for cementing expectations of further action in September,” the bank said.

The latest Bank of Japan release schedule now lists Himino’s speech to local leaders in Saitama for Thursday 27 August at 10:30 JST.

Japan’s calendar also includes the BoJ’s core CPI indicators on Tuesday and the July Services Producer Price Index on Wednesday, giving markets more inflation evidence to digest before Himino speaks.

The Dollar side will be busy at almost exactly the same time.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule has July Personal Income and Outlays, including PCE inflation, and the second estimate of Q2 GDP both due on Wednesday 26 August.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh then makes his first Jackson Hole appearance as chair as the symposium runs from 27-29 August, with investors looking for a clearer steer on whether the Fed still sees another rate increase as necessary.

A softer PCE reading combined with firm guidance from Himino would give Yen bulls the cleaner setup: less support from US yields at the same time as the BoJ establishes a more credible tightening path.

Stronger US inflation or a hawkish Warsh message would make the arithmetic much less favourable, particularly if Himino merely confirms what markets already price rather than signalling that further moves are likely.

Natixis and MUFG increasingly agree on September, so the next phase of the USD/JPY trade is no longer primarily about whether the BoJ hikes.

It is about whether Tokyo can persuade the market that 1.25% is the beginning of a more meaningful tightening cycle rather than another small step while the rate gap with the United States remains wide.

Near 159, the Yen is still waiting to be convinced.

Exchange Rates UK Research’s latest August 2026 survey of major investment banks points to a gradually stronger Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate through 2027, although the near-term consensus remains cautious.

With EUR/USD currently around 1.1677, the median forecast falls to approximately 1.15 in Q3 2026 before recovering to around 1.165 in Q4.

The median then rises to 1.18 in Q1 2027 and remains at 1.18 in Q2, around 1.1% above the current exchange rate.

The headline finding is therefore not for an immediate euro breakout. Instead, the latest survey suggests near-term consolidation followed by modest euro appreciation as 2027 develops.

Individual forecasts remain much more divided, with the Q2 2027 range stretching from 1.10 to 1.21.

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Latest Survey Sees EUR/USD Recovering Towards 1.18

The latest Exchange Rates UK Research poll includes 25 bank forecasts for Q3 and 26 for Q4, providing a broad measure of institutional expectations.

The immediate outlook is relatively restrained.

The Q3 median around 1.15 sits below current spot, with the central 50% of forecasts concentrated roughly between 1.14 and 1.16.

By Q4, however, the median recovers towards the current market level.

The balance shifts more clearly in favour of the euro during 2027.

The median reaches 1.18 in both Q1 and Q2, while the central forecast range moves higher.

By Q4 2027, the median reaches approximately 1.20, although the number of banks providing forecasts declines at longer horizons.

There are significant differences beneath those averages.

Scotiabank forecasts EUR/USD at 1.20 in Q4 2026 and 1.21 by Q2 2027. ABN AMRO, CIBC, ING, MUFG, National Bank of Canada, TD Economics and UBS also have forecasts reaching 1.20 or above.

Nomura is particularly bullish further out, forecasting 1.22 in Q1 2027 and 1.25 by Q4.

The bearish camp is equally noteworthy.

HSBC forecasts EUR/USD falling to 1.10 by Q2 2027, while JP Morgan also sees 1.10. Goldman Sachs and Danske Bank project 1.12, while Citi maintains forecasts around 1.13–1.14.

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The breadth of these projections is important.

The median points modestly higher, but there is no overwhelming institutional agreement that EUR/USD must rise.

Euro Rebounds as Dollar Comes Under Fresh Pressure

The survey comes after a sharp change in EUR/USD momentum.

The pair fell to a 2026 low around 1.1325 during June before recovering through July and August.

EUR/USD gained 1.02% in July and is up another 1.15% so far in August, taking the exchange rate back towards 1.17.

Despite that recovery, EUR/USD remains around 0.5% lower for 2026 after beginning the year near 1.1733.

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Recent euro gains have coincided with renewed pressure on the US dollar.

Reuters reported that the dollar fell to a three-month low against the euro during the past week as investors became increasingly concerned about US Treasury market conditions and the government’s expanded programme of long-dated debt buybacks.

The US currency was also hurt earlier in the week as weaker retail sales and labour-market data encouraged traders to scale back expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase.

There is a second development potentially supporting the bullish side of the EUR/USD survey.

Markets have become increasingly hawkish on the European Central Bank as higher energy prices threaten to keep Eurozone inflation elevated.

Traders now see the ECB deposit rate potentially approaching 3% by late 2027, a substantial change from expectations earlier in the summer.

The ECB’s own June projections put average Eurozone inflation at 3.0% in 2026, largely because of higher energy prices, before easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028.

The combination of reduced expectations for Federal Reserve tightening and greater concern about further ECB rate increases has therefore shifted relative interest-rate expectations in a direction that can support EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Outlook: Consensus Higher, But 1.10–1.21 Range Shows the Risk

The latest Exchange Rates UK Research survey gives a more nuanced signal than simply “banks are bullish on the euro”.

In the near term, the median actually expects EUR/USD to trade below today’s 1.1677 level.

It is during 2027 that the central forecast becomes more constructive, with 1.18 emerging as the median Q2 target and around 1.20 by late 2027.

That would represent moderate euro appreciation rather than a dramatic Dollar decline.

The more revealing figure may be the forecast dispersion.

At Q2 2027, the surveyed banks span approximately 1.10 to 1.21.

The central 50% is much tighter at roughly 1.15–1.20, but even that range encompasses substantially different outcomes for businesses and investors exposed to the pair.

The latest market recovery towards 1.17 has already erased much of the weakness seen during June.

Whether EUR/USD can extend that move towards 1.18 and eventually 1.20 will depend heavily on whether current expectations for a less hawkish Federal Reserve and a firmer ECB survive the next round of inflation, employment and energy-market developments.

For now, the median bank forecast favours the euro over the medium term, but the consensus is for measured appreciation rather than a one-way Dollar decline.

Yen exchange rates have surrendered most intervention-led gains, leaving September’s BoJ decision and guidance on further tightening as the crucial tests.

The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate ended e week at 158.98, within touching distance of the 160 level despite the exceptional intervention conducted jointly by Japan and the United States.

The operation briefly drove USD/JPY from above 164 to around 155, but much of that Yen recovery has since been reversed.

Intervention succeeded in breaking the earlier momentum, although it did not remove the wide US-Japan interest-rate gap or the inflationary pressure created by expensive energy and a weak currency.

Attention has consequently shifted towards the Bank of Japan’s September 17–18 policy meeting.

Natixis economists Alicia García Herrero and Kohei Iwahara expect the BoJ to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25% on September 18.

They said the central bank is “set to raise the policy rate by 25-bps” as inflation pressure strengthens.

Japanese headline inflation accelerated from 1.6% to 1.9% in July, while the measure excluding fresh food and energy also rose to 1.9%.

The more immediate concern for policymakers is the scale of imported inflation.

Yen-denominated import prices climbed 29.1% over the year, while producer-price inflation held at 7.2%, increasing the risk that companies will pass further cost increases to consumers.

Natixis expects additional quarter-point rate rises in January and July 2027, which would take the policy rate to 1.75%.

Analysts Back a September Increase

MUFG’s Derek Halpenny also expects a 25-basis-point move next month.

He said the inflation figures “back up current market pricing, and our view, that the BoJ will hike rates by 25bps” in September.

Markets have already priced a high probability of an increase, which helps explain why the Yen gained relatively little after the latest inflation release.

A widely anticipated rate move will only provide lasting support if Governor Kazuo Ueda signals that further tightening can follow within a reasonably short period.

Standard Chartered has also brought its next expected increase forward from October to September and raised its terminal-rate forecast from 1.50% to 1.75%.

The bank nevertheless doubts that policymakers can exceed already hawkish expectations, stating: “We doubt the BoJ can ‘out-hawk’ the market.”

Standard Chartered forecasts USD/JPY at 158 at the end of the third quarter and 160 at year-end, suggesting that gradual rate increases will not automatically produce a sustained Yen recovery.

Near-Term USD/JPY Forecast: Intervention Risk Caps 160

OCBC strategists Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong also see a stronger policy commitment as essential.

They warned: “A more meaningful and sustained JPY recovery will likely require a stronger signal from the BoJ that policy normalisation can proceed at a faster pace.”

Our base case is for USD/JPY to trade between 156 and 160 ahead of the September meeting.

A rate increase accompanied by guidance towards another move in early 2027 could push the pair below 156 and expose the intervention low near 155.20.

A cautious hike presented as an isolated response to imported inflation would leave 160 vulnerable, with a break higher bringing 162 and the pre-intervention region around 164 back into view.

Failure to raise rates would create an even greater risk of renewed Yen selling and another intervention response.

BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino’s August 27 speech and Tokyo inflation data on August 28 will provide the next domestic policy signals.

US PCE inflation and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address will be equally important, since a durable Yen recovery still requires some narrowing of the US-Japan rate gap.

TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

The primary resistance lies at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 187.00. A break above the channel would strengthen the bullish bias and support the currency cross to explore the region around its all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may find the primary support around the nine-day EMA of 184.79, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.64 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 184.70. A break below this confluence support zone would revive the bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.

US Treasury move doubles buybacks and flattens the long end

Commerzbank’s FX Research team highlights the impact of the latest US Treasury announcement on the rates complex, noting that, effective 9 September, “the US Treasury will double the size of liquidity support buyback operations to at least USD4bn.” They add that the decision immediately rippled through the long end of the curve, as “the 30Y yield fell 10bp following the announcement, and the curve flattened,” reinforcing the bull-flattening move that has underpinned recent Dollar weakness and Yen strength.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		-0.13%	-0.09%	-0.05%	-0.18%	-0.40%	-0.43%	-0.10%
EUR	0.13%		0.03%	0.07%	-0.08%	-0.28%	-0.29%	0.03%
GBP	0.09%	-0.03%		0.04%	-0.11%	-0.31%	-0.33%	0.00%
JPY	0.05%	-0.07%	-0.04%		-0.14%	-0.36%	-0.40%	-0.05%
CAD	0.18%	0.08%	0.11%	0.14%		-0.22%	-0.24%	0.08%
AUD	0.40%	0.28%	0.31%	0.36%	0.22%		-0.04%	0.30%
NZD	0.43%	0.29%	0.33%	0.40%	0.24%	0.04%		0.35%
CHF	0.10%	-0.03%	-0.01%	0.05%	-0.08%	-0.30%	-0.35%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The US Dollar (USD) collapsed this week, helping EUR/USD reach a fresh three-month high just above the 1.1700 mark, heading into the weekly close a handful of pips below that level but still firmly up.

Unexpected boost to US liquidity

The USD sell-off was triggered by the United States (US) Department of the Treasury, which announced on Wednesday that it will increase the government debt repurchase size by at least double. According to the press release, the current maximum size of $2 billion per operation will be at least $4 billion per operation, and the change will become effective September 9.

The announcement, while aimed at taming long-term bond yields, was also a signal that the Treasury is sensitive to yield volatility. The Treasury made its move after the 30-year bond yield climbed to 5.327% on Tuesday, its highest level since June 2007, immediately falling afterward by roughly 9 basis points.

There are, however, a couple of things that are worth understanding. First, buybacks are just a rearrangement of the maturity schedule, as the Treasury will have to issue fresh bonds to replace those that it plans to buy back. Government debt and fiscal deficits will remain the same.

Second, the decision has an impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy decisions. Given that the US Treasury will have to issue more bills to finance the planned removal, this would likely ease financial conditions, which would increase the odds of a tighter monetary policy.

The future looks cloudy for the USD, with precious metals likely to outpace the Greenback in a risk-averse environment. Neither Treasury buybacks nor higher rates will address the root of the problem, which is the fiscal deficit.

In any case, that means further USD weakness in a risk-averse environment. The Middle East war is in a stalemate, and neither side is willing to budge. Oil prices have already picked up a bullish pace, and it won’t take much longer until energy prices become embedded inflation.

Financial war

Meanwhile, the Middle East war adds pressure on financial markets. Tensions between the US and Iran remain in place, with neither willing to give in to the other party´s demands. Fire exchange around the Strait of Hormuz remains paused, as well as talks aimed at ending the conflict.

Market participants are clearly seeing a long-standing conflict ahead, and generally speaking, they are getting used to the idea. However, Oil prices have been picking up lately, reviving inflation-related concerns and also hinting at central banks opting for tighter monetary policies.

US President Donald Trump, however, is unwilling to give up. Trump posted on Truth Social that the next move is choking Tehran’s economy by levying major penalties against any country that provides “any type of lifeline” to Iran, calling it an “Economic D-Day.”

His comments were reinforced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who noted on Thursday that President Trump’s plan to crush Iran’s economy will likely negate the need for major US military operations against the Islamic Republic.

Bessent also had some comments on the Treasury buyback. He declared that the Treasury could increase bond buybacks beyond $4 billion, partly to signal that current yields do not reflect underlying economic fundamentals.

ECB Lagarde worried about Europe growth

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde hit the wires on Wednesday and expressed concerns about Europe facing an erosion of the conditions that have historically driven the continent’s growth at the World Economic Forum’s International Business Council in Geneva, Switzerland. Growth rested on three pillars, according to Lagarde: expanding global trade, manufacturing supported by access to cheap energy, and “a stable, rules-based global order, underpinned by a US security umbrella.”

“Today, that global order is under pressure. Geopolitical tensions are bringing critical dependencies and choke points into sharper focus, while Europe faces growing security threats on its doorstep,” Lagarde added. Her speech aimed to warn about Europe’s ability to compete in the age of AI, but her comments about the US did not pass unnoticed. War, physical or financial, poses a major risk and no one can ignore it.

Macroeconomic clues

The macroeconomic calendar had little to offer in the last few days. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released the Minutes of the July meeting, which brought nothing of substance. Officials remain concerned about inflation, and support rate hikes would be required if price pressures persist. A note of color was added by Chair Kevin Warsh, as he proposed reducing annual meetings from the current eight to six, to allow collecting more data in between meetings. This year’s schedule, however, remains the same.

Other than that, the focus was on the S&P Global and local banks’ Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) released on Friday. The August flash estimates showed that Eurozone business activity expanded more than anticipated, as the Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.8 from 51.9 in July, against expectations of 51.8. Services output remained unchanged at 51.7, beating the expected slowdown to 51.5. Finally, the Composite PMI printed at 52.1, better than the expected 51.7 and the previous 52.

US PMIs also showed encouraging results, despite the Manufacturing PMI ticking lower to 53.2 from 53.9 in July. The Services index jumped to 56.8 from 54.6, pushing the Composite PMI to 56 from 54.5 in July, surpassing the expected 54. The figures help the USD recover some modest ground, though it is still sharply down for the week.

In the upcoming days, the macroeconomic calendar will include the German Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the US July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The US will also publish the second estimate of its Q2 GDP.

Additionally, investors will keep an eye on this year’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, hosted by the Fed Bank of Kansas. This year’s theme is “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” Policymakers from around the globe will discuss the main topic and may provide hints on the future of monetary policy.

Finally, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the annual Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) Benchmark Revisions on Friday, a revision of labor statistics for the twelve months to March.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook:

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is bullish. The pair extends its advance well above the short- and medium-term moving averages, with the shorter one clearly bullish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1542, the 100-day SMA at 1.1573 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1631 all sit below spot, reinforcing a supportive backdrop as price pushes further into higher ground. The outlook stays constructive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) consolidating at 71 and the 14-period Momentum indicator also holding above its midline, hinting that buyers still dominate in the near term even as conditions look stretched.

On the weekly chart, EUR/USD holds a constructive bullish bias and trades above bullish moving averages. The 20-week SMA stands at 1.1576, while the 100-week SMA is at 1.1326 and the 200-week SMA is at 1.1059, reinforcing a broader underlying support structure. Weekly momentum is building up, as technical indicators head firmly north after crossing their midlines into positive ground.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 200-day SMA around 1.1631, followed by the 100-day SMA and the 20-week SMA, which converge in the 1.1570 price zone, forming a strong dynamic support area. Further slides could see EUR/USD dropping towards 1.1470 before relevant buying interest reappears. Recent highs around 1.1710 establish the first resistance area ahead of the 1.1800 mark. Additional gains should lead to a test of the April monthly peak at 1.1850.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

BitcoinWorld

EUR/GBP Forecast: Neutral RSI Points to Further Consolidation

The EUR/GBP currency pair is showing signs of a pause in its recent trend, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has moved to a neutral reading, suggesting that the pair is likely to consolidate in the near term.

This technical signal indicates that buying and selling momentum are currently balanced, following a period of directional movement. For traders, this often points to a range-bound market where the currency pair may trade sideways until a new catalyst emerges.

What Does a Neutral RSI Signal for EUR/GBP?

A neutral RSI, typically in the 40-60 range, signifies that the market is not overbought or oversold. This lack of directional momentum often precedes a period of consolidation. In the context of EUR/GBP, this means that neither the Euro nor the Pound has a clear technical advantage at the moment.

This technical setup often follows a significant move, allowing the market to ‘breathe’ before the next leg. For investors, a neutral RSI can be a signal to watch for breakouts from established support and resistance levels rather than expecting immediate trend continuation. The current setup suggests that the recent price action is digesting, with neither bulls nor bears in full control.

Key Levels and Market Context

As of this analysis, the pair is trading within a defined range, with traders closely monitoring key technical levels. A break above the recent swing high could signal renewed bullish momentum, while a drop below the current support zone might open the door for further downside. These levels are critical for determining the next significant move.

The consolidation comes amid a complex macroeconomic environment for both the Eurozone and the UK. Divergent monetary policy expectations between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) remain a core driver for the pair. Any shifts in economic data releases, such as inflation or GDP figures, could quickly alter the technical picture and inject new volatility into the market.

Implications for Traders and Investors

For traders, the current neutral RSI suggests a strategy of range trading or waiting for a clear breakout. The lack of momentum means that chasing price moves could be risky. Instead, focusing on well-defined support and resistance levels offers a more structured approach to navigating this phase.

For longer-term investors, this consolidation phase is a critical period to watch. It reflects the market’s uncertainty about the future path of interest rates in both economies. The resolution of this consolidation will likely set the tone for the pair’s direction in the coming weeks, making it an important development for anyone with exposure to the GBP or EUR.

Conclusion

The neutral RSI reading on the EUR/GBP daily chart indicates a period of consolidation is likely. This technical signal points to balanced momentum, suggesting that the pair may trade within a range until new economic data or policy signals provide a clearer direction. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels for potential breakout opportunities.

FAQs

Q1: What is the RSI indicator and how is it used in forex trading?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It is used to identify overbought or oversold conditions in a market. A reading above 70 typically indicates overbought conditions, while a reading below 30 suggests oversold conditions. A neutral reading, usually between 40 and 60, indicates a lack of strong momentum and often precedes consolidation.

Q2: What does ‘consolidation’ mean for a currency pair like EUR/GBP?
Consolidation refers to a period where an asset’s price trades within a relatively narrow range, pausing its broader trend. It occurs when supply and demand are roughly balanced. For a currency pair, this often results in a sideways movement on the chart, as buyers and sellers are equally matched until a new catalyst forces a breakout.

Q3: What factors could break the current EUR/GBP consolidation?
Key factors that could break the consolidation include new economic data releases (like inflation or employment figures), shifts in monetary policy expectations from the European Central Bank or the Bank of England, geopolitical events, or significant changes in market risk sentiment. Any of these could provide the momentum needed for a decisive move beyond the current trading range.

This post EUR/GBP Forecast: Neutral RSI Points to Further Consolidation first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

Scotiabank’s conditional GBP/USD objective sits above consensus after Pound Sterling tests the 1.3650/60 resistance area

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has tested the mid-1.36s, putting Scotiabank’s conditional route towards 1.41 into focus.

ERUK market data show GBP/USD reached an intraday high near 1.3675 before slipping back towards 1.3645, so the sustained push required by Scotiabank has not yet occurred.

The bank’s scenario depends on a durable advance beyond the 1.3650/60 area, which has contained Sterling near its early-May peak.

It is a notably bullish technical case: ERUK’s Research Currency Forecast Sentiment Survey places the median fourth-quarter forecast at 1.3446 and the top of the surveyed range at 1.40.

Scotiabank analysts noted the recent move reflected broad US Dollar weakness more than a sudden improvement in UK fundamentals.

Nevertheless, the bank judged the technical structure to be firmly positive after GBP/USD twice defended the 1.3150 area during April and June.

The strategists said “a sustained push above 1.3650/60 implies potential for an extension towards the 1.41 zone over the balance of the year”.

That makes 1.41 a possible extension rather than a guaranteed year-end destination, with Sterling still needing to establish former resistance as support.

1.3848 as the intermediate test

Sucden Financial analysts highlighted 1.3650/60 as the breakout zone and said the next broader objective was 1.3848.

Sucden described the set-up as one “with the January high around 1.3848 representing a broader upside target”.

The level therefore offers an intermediate test of whether Scotiabank’s larger scenario is gaining traction.

The two institutions reach a similar bullish conclusion but on different horizons.

Sucden’s 1.3848 is the first substantial obstacle above the trigger, while Scotiabank’s conditional 1.41 objective extends through the balance of 2026.

Sucden placed initial support near 1.3600 and a deeper cushion around 1.3500, where the 20-day average and 30-day volume-weighted average price reinforce the technical floor.

A daily close below 1.3600 would weaken the breakout case and expose 1.3500, while a sustained hold above 1.3650/60 would strengthen the route towards 1.3848 and 1.41.

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.