• During the trading session on Thursday, we have seen the euro go back and forth against the British pound, as we continue to hang around just above the crucial 0.85 level.
• This is an area that’s been important multiple times on the way up as well as the way down, and as a result I think we’ve got a situation where market memory is coming into play.

I tend to use this pair as a measuring stick, and as a relative strength meter for these 2 currencies. If we get a stronger currency in this pair, typically that currency will do better against the US dollar. This is a great way to triangulate what should be happening in the EUR/USD or GBP/USD pairs, and it’s a trick I use all the time. Ultimately, it comes down to whether or not the US dollar is strong or weak and then picking which one of these 2 currencies are heading in the opposite direction and will give you the most “bang for your buck.” It’s not that both currencies can’t rise against the US dollar, but over the last couple of weeks, you can see that the euro rose against the British pound, and it’s no big surprise that arose against the US dollar simultaneously.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this market is a bit interesting at the moment, because we broke so much higher than the 50 Day EMA, and now look like we are trying to do everything we can to form some type of bullish flag. Whether or not that holds up remains to be seen, because it is a little bit early to call it that, but if we can break out to the upside, it’s worth noting that the “measured move” of the bullish flag as to the 0.8650 level, an area that’s been important multiple times in the past and I do believe would be resistance. On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 0.85 level, we do have the 50 Day EMA sitting just below there to offer even more support.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling surges, Shell banned from attempting BP takeover for six months

GBP/USD extended its rally and touched its highest level since October 2021 above 1.3750 on Thursday. The heavy selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD), on renewed concerns over the Federal Reserve losing its independence, could allow the pair to continue to push higher despite overbought conditions.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported late Wednesday that United States President Donald Trump was planning to announce his candidate for the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed) early, by September or October, to undermine Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The news outlet claimed that Trump is evaluating Kevin Hassett’s, Director of the National Economic Council, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s commitment to lower interest rates as they are among the names that could potentially replace Powell. Read more…

GBP/USD outlook: Cable keeps firm tone, further gains likely after consolidation

Cable remains steady and holds within a narrow consolidation just below new multi-month high (1.3648), posted on Tuesday, following strong bullish acceleration in past two days.

Revived risk appetite on growing confidence in still fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, continues to underpin near-term action, as markets await more details from Fed Powell’s second day of testimony to Senate Banking committee. Read more…

• The Euro trades lower against the British Pound on Tuesday, snapping a steady winning streak that began earlier in June.
• The cross is edging lower, quoted around 0.8533 during the American trading hours, down about 0.40% on the day.
• RSI has eased from overbought territory and is drifting lower at 59.83, while the MACD remains slightly positive but shows signs of flattening momentum.

The Euro (EUR) is slipping against the Pound today, putting the brakes on a solid run that saw buyers firmly in control for nearly two weeks. The EUR/GBP cross is edging lower, trading around 0.8527 during the American trading hours, down about 0.40% on the day.

Zooming in on the daily chart, the broader trend structure remains constructive despite today’s short pullback. EUR/GBP continues to trace a well-respected rising channel that has guided price action since late January. Within this structure, buyers have consistently stepped in near the lower boundary and the 21-day EMA, which now sits close to 0.8496, cushioning dips.

However, the pair is encountering resistance near the 0.8550 psychological level, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April peak to the May low. This area, overlapping with the channel’s midline, is drawing profit-taking and testing the strength of the recent bullish momentum.

Momentum signals suggest caution in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought levels and is currently at 59.83, implying the recent bullish push may be cooling off. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram remains in positive territory but hints at flattening momentum, signaling that the rally could stall without fresh catalysts.

A sustained daily close above 0.8600 would validate the bullish case and open the path toward 0.8740 — the April high and channel ceiling. Conversely, if the pullback deepens, the 21-day EMA near 0.8496 provides immediate support, followed by stronger buying interest around the 38.2% Fib at 0.8504 and the lower channel boundary near 0.8400.

• The GBP/USD outlook is extremely bullish after the dollar loses further due to Trump’s criticism of the Fed.
• Iran-Israel ceasefire continues to underpin the global risk sentiment.
• Markets are now eyeing the Q1 GDP and Core PCE Index data from the US.

The British pound extended its bullish momentum for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, pushing the price to a fresh 41-month top near mid-1.3700. The rally stems from improving global risk sentiment and pressure on the US dollar driven by tension in Washington.

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The greenback is experiencing a broader sell-off after President Trump renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve’s independence. Trump labeled Fed Chair Powell as “terrible” after his testimony before Congress, where he reiterated the data dependence and showed no urgency to lower the rates. The US President also hinted at replacing Powell as soon as this summer. The Dollar Index plunged below 97.50 as markets interpreted Trump’s threat as a political intervention with the central bank.

While the US side faces central bank politics and mixed economic data, the British pound shows resilience. Domestic concerns about a cooling labor market and softer inflation hopes are striking at the pound’s strength. A British Chamber of Commerce survey revealed that around one-third of SMEs plan to cut jobs due to rising National Insurance costs. BoE Governor Bailey also pointed out the softening of the labor market during his testimony earlier this week.

Nevertheless, the markets remain primarily focused on US dynamics and broader risk sentiment. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has lifted the risk appetite and shifted capital flows off the US dollar. Traders are now eyeing today’s US Q1 GDP and Friday’s US Core PCE Index report. Softer-than-expected data may increase the odds of a September rate cut, which will further weaken the US dollar.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Bulls Aim for 1.4000

The 4-hour chart of the GBP/USD reveals a strong bullish trend as the price lies well above the key SMAs. The pair broke the resistance at 1.3635 with a strong push towards 1.3750. The price is building the case to test the 1.4000 psychological mark.

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On the other hand, the pair may experience profit-taking as it has overextended, and the RSI indicates an extreme overbought condition near the 80.0 level. The pair may test the resistance-turned-support at 1.3635 before resuming the uptrend.

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• USD/JPY attracts heavy selling and is pressured by a combination of negative factors.
• Concerns over the Fed’s independence weigh on the USD and lift the safe-haven JPY.
• The divergent Fed-BoJ policy expectations contribute to the steep intraday decline.

The USD/JPY pair resumes this week’s sharp retracement slide from the 146.00 mark, or its highest level since May 13, and dives to a one-and-half-week low during the first half of the European session on Thursday. Spot prices slip below the 144.00 mark in the last hour and seem vulnerable to weaken further amid a bearish fundamental backdrop.

US President Donald Trump escalated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates and floated the idea of firing him. Powell, testifying before Congress for the second day on Wednesday, acknowledged that the recent inflation reading had been more moderate, but he warned that new tariffs could change that. Powell reiterated that the central bank is well-positioned to wait to cut interest rates until they have a better handle on the impact of Trump’s trade policies on consumer prices.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that Trump was considering naming Powell’s successor by September or October, stoking concerns over the central bank’s independence. When asked if he is interviewing candidates to replace Powell, Trump said he has three or four people in mind as contenders for the top Fed job. This, along with bets that the US central bank could resume its rate-cutting cycle as soon as July, drags the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since March 2022 and is seen weighing heavily on the USD/JPY pair.

Moreover, traders have fully priced in that the Fed will lower rates by at least 50 basis points before the end of this year. In contrast, the Bank of Japan – although has been hesitant to raise interest rates – is still expected to stay on the path of monetary policy normalization as inflation persistently exceeds its target. Japan’s core inflation has remained well above the BoJ’s 2% target for well over three years and rose to a more than two-year high in May. Furthermore, Japan’s Corporate Services Producer Price Index – a leading indicator of consumer price inflation – has been trending above the 3% YoY rate for several consecutive months.

The divergent Fed-BoJ policy expectations turn out to be another factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair and validate the near-term negative outlook. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the final Q1 GDP print, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Pending Home Sales. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members could provide some impetus to the pair ahead of the Tokyo CPI and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. Nevertheless, the aforementioned factors suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Technical Outlook

The overnight failure ahead of the 146.00 mark and a subsequent break below the 144.70-144.65 area, or the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, validates the negative outlook for the USD/JPY pair. Moreover, oscillators on hourly/daily charts have just started gaining negative traction and back the case for a slide towards intermediate support near the 143.70-143.65 region en route to sub-143.00 levels.

On the flip side, the 200-SMA support breakpoint, around the 144.65-144.70 zone, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 145.00 psychological mark and the 145.25-145.35 static barrier. A sustained strength beyond the latter could allow the USD/JPY pair to make a fresh attempt to conquer the 146.00 mark. The said handle might now act as a pivotal point, which if cleared could shift the near-term bias in favor of bulls and pave the way for additional near-term gains.

The GBPCHF affected by stochastic rally to the overbought level, forming some bullish correctional waves, recording 1.1015 level, but the main stability within the bearish channel’s levels, which represents 1.1055 level for the extension of the extra main resistance for the stability of the moving average 55 above the current trading, these factors makes us wait for preferring the bearish bias domination, which might target 1.0975 and 1.0955.

Note that the price rally above the bearish channel’s resistance and provides a positive close, will confirm its move to the bullish track, to begin targeting several positive stations by reaching 1.1095 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0955 and 1.1040

Trend forecast: Bearish

The GBPJPY pair ended its last bullish rally by providing a negative close below 66% Fibonacci correction level at198.80, to form an extra obstacle against the bullish attempts, which forces it to form a temporary correctional rebound at 197.85, attempting to catch its breath before resuming the main bullish attack.

Reminding you that the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels and its main support is located near 195.70, by forming extra support at 197.30 represented by 61.8%Fibonacci correction level, these factors make us wait for gathering new positive momentum that allows it to press on the mentioned obstacle and surpassing it will reinforce the chances of reaching the next target near 199.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 197.65 and 198.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair confirmed its surrender to the dominance of the temporary sideways bias, to notice its move between the extra support near 167.60 and the top of the last wave that is represented by 169.30 level, attempting to face stochastic negativity and keeping positive stability.

Therefore, we will keep waiting for the extra positive momentum, which allows it to settle above 169.30 then attack the resistance of the bullish channel at 170.00, to find an exit to move to a new positive station, while the price decline below the extra support that might force it to activate the bearish correctional track before any attempt to record any of the suggested positive targets.

The expected trading range for today is between 168.30 and 170.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

June 26, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Price Ticks Higher to 1.371

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBPUSD) traded without a clear direction on Wednesday amid a lack of both UK and US data releases.

The US Dollar (USD) regained some ground on Wednesday, recovering from losses earlier in the week that followed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, a development that initially weighed on the safe-haven currency.

As market sentiment turned more neutral midweek, this helped stabilise demand for the ‘Greenback’.

Additional support came from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who delivered testimony to Congress reaffirming the Fed’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts.

His pushback against political pressure to ease policy bolstered expectations that rates will remain higher for longer, offering a lift to USD exchange rates during Wednesday’s European session.

The Pound (GBP) lacked clear direction on Wednesday, trading sideways against the majority of its peers as a lull in UK economic data left markets with little to go on.

After benefiting earlier in the week from improved risk appetite, Sterling ran out of steam as sentiment cooled.

With no major UK releases to drive movement, investors showed little enthusiasm for extending positions in GBP.

As a result, the Pound remained stuck in a tight range, with limited momentum to break higher or lower during Wednesday’s European session.

Looking to Thursday’s European session, movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to be influenced by a flurry of key US economic releases.

Markets will dissect the latest US durable goods orders for May alongside the final estimate of Q1 GDP.

Orders for durable goods are expected to show a strong rebound, jumping from a sharp -6.3% to a robust 8.5% increase, potentially lending support to the US Dollar.

However, this may be offset by a disappointing GDP revision, with growth in the first quarter projected to be downgraded from 2.4% to -0.2%.

If these figures meet expectations, USD exchange rate movement could be choppy as traders weigh the conflicting signals.

On the UK side, attention will fall on the latest CBI distributive trades survey.

Although not typically a major market mover, a stronger-than-expected reading could help Sterling find some traction.

Additionally, remarks from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, could inject fresh volatility into GBP exchange rates.

Any hints that the BoE remains cautious about near-term rate cuts may provide a further lift to the Pound.

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• The EUR/USD forecast is strongly bullish despite a mild pullback from YTD highs.
• A weaker dollar amid dovish Fed expectations keeps the Euro bullish.
• Markets are eyeing US Q1 GDP and US Core PCE Index data for further impetus.

The EUR/USD price is trading slightly lower on Wednesday during the early New York session, after posting a two-day rally to fresh YTD highs. Despite the pullback, the pair remains close to the highest level since November 2021, supported by global risk sentiment, weaker oil prices, and the US dollar.

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The ceasefire between Iran and Israel, announced by President Trump, sparked broader optimism across financial markets. As a result, the safe-haven demand for the dollar lost traction. Although both sides are at peace, the stability is still too fragile. Both sides can resume hostilities if provoked. However, the markets have so far welcomed the de-escalation, favoring riskier assets, such as the Euro.

The subdued dollar boosts the Euro. The Dollar Index remains depressed around mid-97.00, close to a three-year low, as it is pressured by dovish Fed expectations. Although the Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance in his testimony before Congress on Tuesday, the markets are still expecting a 50 bps cut by the end of 2025.

On the European side, macroeconomic data is steady but not strong enough to drive markets. French Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at 88.0, while Spain’s Q1 GDP confirmed a growth of 0.6% q/q and 2.8% y/y.

The US Consumer Confidence Index fell from 98.4 to 93.0, revealing concerns for jobs and economic growth. As markets digest Powell’s second round of testimony today, the upcoming US data, including Q1 GDP and the Core PCE Index, are key to watch.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Buyers Aiming for 1.1700

The EUR/USD 4-hour chart displays a consolidating pattern near the multi-month high. The uptrend is intact as the price stays well above the 20-period SMA. Moreover, the bullish crossover of the 20-SMA and 50-SMA also presents room for upside. The RSI is also off the overbought zone but above 50.0 and sloping upwards.

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Overall, the pair is now trading within a broad range of 1.1450 to 1.1650. The price is expected to remain within these two levels unless a catalyst emerges to push it further higher towards the 1.1700 mark. The path of least resistance lies on the upside.

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