• Tepid US growth was partially overshadowed by encouraging employment data and trade tensions relief.
• The European Central Bank maintained its dovish stance despite modest economic progress.
• EUR/USD seems to have completed its bearish corrective slide and may soon resume its bullish run.

The EUR/USD pair stayed under mild selling pressure for the second consecutive week, but settled on Friday at around 1.1350, pretty much unchanged from the opening. Investors are still wary about the US Dollar (USD) given the White House’s tariffs policy potential effects on the local economy.

Additionally, United States (US) data released in the last few days indicated a slowing performance throughout the first quarter of the year, also a result of trade-war concerns. On the contrary, European Union (EU) macroeconomic figures were unimpressive but painted a better picture.

As the week comes to an end, investors shift the focus to global trade developments and the upcoming Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy announcement.

European data and the European Central Bank

The EU released the April Economic Sentiment Indicator, which contracted to 93.6 from 95.00 in March. Additionally, the Union released the preliminary estimate of the Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), indicating the economy grew by 1.2% on a yearly basis and by 0.4% in the quarter, beating expectations of 1.0% and 0.2%, respectively. Finally, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose by more than anticipated in April, according to preliminary estimates, up 2.2% year-on-year (YoY) vs the 2.1% expected.

Meanwhile, Germany released March Retail Sales, down on a monthly basis by 0.2%, better than the -0.4% anticipated by market players. The German Q1 (GDP) showed the economy grew 0.2% in the quarter, according to preliminary estimates. The figure matched expectations, while improving from the Q4 2024 reading of -0.2%. Inflation in the country, as measured by the HICP, increased by 2.2% year-on-year (YoY), down from the previous 2.3% but above the 2.1% expected.

Tepid EU data kept the door open for additional rate cuts. European Central Bank (ECB) officials delivered dovish messages, supporting the case for another 25 basis points (bps) rate cut when they meet in June.

Among others, ECB policymaker Olli Rehn stated on Monday that the central bank may need to lower interest rates below the neutral level to support the economy, given materializing downside risks. He even called for larger interest rate cuts. Also, ECB Philip Lane noted he would not pre-commit to any path and said the growth forecast would see only a moderate markdown.

A fragile economy and persistent trade tensions leave no room for anything other than further cuts.

US economy shrinks, employment fails ahead of Fed

Unimpressive US data limited USD advances despite the de-escalation of global trade tensions.

Consumer Confidence, as measured by CB, fell to 86 in April, its lowest since October 2021. Also, the preliminary estimate of the US Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also missed expectations, as the economy contracted at an annualized pace of 0.3% against the anticipated 0.4% expansion, and sharply down from the previous 2.4%. The April ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), on the contrary, posted 48.7, down from the 49 posted in March, but better than the 48 expected.

Inflation in the US, as measured by the change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, edged lower to 2.3% on a yearly basis in March from 2.5% in February. The figure missed expectations of 2.2%. The core annual PCE Price Index rose 2.6%, down from the 3% increase reported in February and in line with analysts’ estimates.

Employment-related figures were tepid, although the April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report brought a positive surprise ahead of the weekly close.

Earlier in the week, the US released the April ADP Employment Change report, which showed that the private sector added measly 62K new job positions, much worse than the 108K expected, while below the previous 147K. Also the number of job openings in the country on the last business day of March stood at 7.19 million, as reported in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), easing from the previous 7.48 million openings (revised from 7.56 million) reported in February and below the market expectation of 7.5 million. Finally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended April 26 rose by 241K, worse than the 224K anticipated and the previous weekly figure of 223K.

On Friday, the NFP showed the country added 177K new job positions in April, surpassing the expected 130K and not far from the 185K posted in March. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2% as expected, while annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, held steady at 3.8%, below the 3.9% expected.

Federal Reserve taking centre stage

The macroeconomic calendar has little relevant to offer in the upcoming days. The US will release the April Services PMI, foreseen at 50.6, down from the March reading of 50.8. As for the EU, the focus will be on Germany Factory Orders, seen increasing by 2.2% in March, and EU Retail Sales for the same period.

The Fed will gather all the attention, announcing the monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Fed officials are widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate on hold this time, floating between 4.25% and 4.50%. Uncertainty related to trade tensions translates into potentially higher inflation coupled with a slowdown in economic activity, forcing policymakers to stay put ahead of a clearer picture emerges.

Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to repeat the need to wait and see, with the focus on progress towards the 2% inflation goal. Questions about his relationship with President Donald Trump within the press conference are likely, yet Powell will likely dodge those as usual.

Trump trade war developments

In the meantime, global trade tensions continue, impacting the market’s mood. Headlines were mostly discouraging throughout the first half of the week, as headlines coming from China indicated no negotiations were underway. As days went by, back and forth between Washington and Beijing continued, with both sides waiting for the opposite one to take the first step, something that has not yet happened.

Still, comments from Trump pointing to ongoing negotiations with other major trade counterparts brought some relief to financial markets. On Thursday, US President Trump noted progress on talks with some Asian countries, including India and Japan. Regarding China, Trump stated that there’s a “very good” chance of making a deal with China, yet added that any deal with Beijing has to be in US terms. Meanwhile, a Beijing-backed outlet reported that United States officials have contacted their Chinese counterparts for talks.

Finally, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro down-talked data, saying, “I got to say just one thing about today’s news, that’s the best negative print I have ever seen in my life,” while saying he likes “where we’re at now.”

The mood improved ahead of the weekly close thanks to the optimism related to such headlines.

EUR/USD technical outlook

The weekly chart for the EUR/USD pair shows extreme conditions continue to recede, while the bearish potential seems well-limited. Technical indicators retreated from their recent highs, but remain within overbought territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidating around 70. At the same time, the pair develops above all its moving averages, with a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) extending its advance below the 100 and 200 SMAs. The longer one stands at around 1.0830, which is too far away to be considered a relevant support, yet at the same time, it reflects EUR/USD bullish momentum.

The daily chart shows EUR/USD bounced from a bullish 20 SMA currently at around 1.1300. The 100 and 200 SMAs grind north over 500 pips below the current level, in line with the dominant bullish strength. Finally, technical indicators are stuck around their midlines, barely bouncing while losing the bearish strength from the previous sessions. Overall, it seems the downward correction is complete and EUR/USD may soon resume its upward strength.

Immediate resistance can be found at around 1.1400, followed by the 1.1470 region, ahead of the yearly peak at 1.1573. A clear break below the latter should see EUR/USD extending gains well beyond the 1.1600 mark. Support, on the other hand, comes at around 1.1300, followed by the 1.1260 price zone. A break below the latter could open the door for a decline towards the 1.1160/70 price zone.

• The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a strong US labor sector.

• US jobs data pointed to a faster-than-expected economic decline.

• The US added 177,000 new jobs in April.

The GBP/USD weekly forecast is slightly bearish as strong US labor sector validates the Fed’s cautious tone.

Ups and downs of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD price ended the week down after climbing to new highs. Initially, the pound rallied against the dollar amid downbeat US economic data. However, this changed after robust employment figures at the end of the week. 

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US figures on job vacancies, pirate employment and jobless claims pointed to a faster-than-expected economic decline. However, business activity in the manufacturing sector was better than expected. Moreover, the nonfarm payrolls report revealed 177,000 new jobs in April compared to estimates of 138,000.

Next week’s key events for GBP/USD

Next week, market participants will focus on the Fed and Bank of England policy meetings. Economists expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, while the Bank of England will likely cut rates by 25-bps. 

The Fed has maintained a cautious tone, with Powell saying there was no hurry to cut interest rates. However, recent downbeat economic data might push the central bank in June. Meanwhile, the BoE is aware of the likely impacts of Trump’s tariffs. Weaker global and UK growth will likely push policymakers to consider a faster easing cycle.

GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Uptrend pauses after recent swing high

On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused after reaching the 1.3401 key resistance level. Moreover, the price trades above the 22-SMA and the RSI is above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. GBP/USD has maintained a bullish trend, making higher highs and lows. At the same time, the price has respected a trendline as support. 

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The most recent swing started at the support trendline and the 1.2702 level. However, the move slowed near the 1.3401 level. Bulls tried twice to break above the level but failed. Meanwhile, the RSI made a slight bearish divergence, signaling a looming pullback.

The price might be ready to retest the 22-SMA. A deeper retreat would retest the support trendline. The bullish bias will remain if the price stays above the SMA or the trendline. Meanwhile, the uptrend will continue with a break above the 1.3401 resistance.

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• The Pound Sterling faced rejection again near 1.3450 versus the US Dollar.
• The Fed and BoE policy announcements are set to rock the GBP/USD pair in the week ahead.
• Technically, the pair could see dip-buying as the daily RSI still holds above the midline.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) witnessed a downside correction against the US Dollar (USD) after the GBP/USD pair faced rejection again near the 1.3450 barrier.

Pound Sterling hit three-year highs, then reversed

King Dollar regained its throne, booking the third weekly gain, due to receding tariff war fears and optimism emerging from potential trade deals between the United States (US) and its major Asian trading partners.

US President Donald Trump and some of his colleagues stuck to their rhetoric that trade negotiations continued with China even though Beijing dismissed such talks. Trump said during the week that he has “potential” trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan and that there is a very good chance of reaching an agreement with China.

China eventually confirmed in the latter part of the week, with the Chinese Commerce Ministry stating that “the US has recently sent messages to China through relevant parties, hoping to start talks with China. China is currently evaluating this.”

Optimism on the trade front allayed fears of a likely slowdown in the US economic growth, keeping the USD recovery intact. The first look of the US annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed on Wednesday that the US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 as US firms frontloaded to get ahead of the US levies, resulting in an import surge.

However, Thursday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI eased US growth concerns. The index fell to 48.7 in April from 49.0 in March, against expectations for a bigger fall to 48. 

Therefore, the sustained USD demand remained the primary driver behind the GBP/USD pair’s moves as the Pound Sterling finally gave in to the Greenback’s resurgence. The pair hit a fresh three-year high at 1.3445 at the start of the week before setting off a correction to near 1.3250 heading into the release of the US employment report on Friday.  

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) rose by 177,000 in April, surpassing the market expectation of 130,000. In this period, the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.2% and annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, remained unchanged at 3.8%. GBP/USD struggled to gain traction after the US labor market data and remained in the lower half of its weekly range heading into the weekend.

Focus on trade headlines and central banks’ bonanza

Following a US economic data-dominated week, the upcoming week is relatively light, notwithstanding the Fed and BoE monetary policy decisions.

On Monday, the US ISM Services PMI will be of note for the major as the UK markets will remain closed in observance of May Day. Tuesday lacks any top-tier UK or US macro news, so all eyes turn toward Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision.

The Fed is widely expected to hold rates following the May policy meeting. Still, Chairman Jerome Powell’s words on the potential impact of US tariffs on the economic and inflation outlook will hold the key and impact the USD performance across the board.

The BoE will steal the spotlight on ‘Super Thursday’as the Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR) and Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference will throw fresh hints on the timing of the next interest rate cut.

Later that day, the US will publish its weekly Jobless Claims data.

BoE Governor Bailey will make his second public appearance of the week on Friday, speaking at the Reykjavík Economic Conference in Iceland. Fed policymakers will also return to the rostrum after the ‘blackout period’.

That said, potential trade deals between the US and its major trading partners and developments on the tariff front will continue playing a pivotal role in the week ahead.

GBP/USD: Technical Outlook

Amid a Golden Cross and a bullish 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart, risks remain skewed to the upside for the GBP/USD pair in the short term.

The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed above the 200-day SMA on a daily closing basis on April 17, providing conviction to the bullish streak.

Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned north while above the midline, currently near 59.

The pair must close the week above the critical 1.3350 psychological barrier to negate the corrective bias. The next powerful resistance aligns at the three-year high of 1.3445.

Acceptance above that level will likely kick off a fresh uptrend toward the February 2022 high of 1.3644.

Alternatively, if the correction gathers steam, the 1.3200 round level will be tested initially, below which the immediate support of the 21-day SMA at 1.3184 will be tested.

A sustained break below the 21-day SMA will target the 50-day SMA at 1.3007, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.2845.

• The British Pound has fallen after initially trying to rally on Thursday against the US dollar in a remembrance of the overall range that we have been in.
• Quite frankly, this is a market that I think is probably just sitting still until we can figure out what to do with the next set of data.

Concerns of Recession, etc.

There are a lot of concerns about the United States heading into a recession. So, the non-farm payroll number on Friday will be a big deal. With that being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where it is probably only a matter of time before we come to some type of resolution. But the 1.32 level underneath is support at the moment with 1.3425 being resistance.

As we continue to go back and forth, I think it does suggest that we’re just waiting around. Keep in mind that interest rates in America have been climbing, so it’s not quite the interest rate play that it had been over multiple years. After all, for the longest time, you would just buy the British pound and short the US dollar. If we were to close on Friday below the 1.32 level, that could be the beginning of something important, just as a close above the 1.3450 level would be.

As things stand right now, it does look bullish, but it is worth noting that the area that we have been testing has been very important in the past. So, one would assume there’s a certain amount of market memory in this neighborhood and therefore it is going to take a lot of work to break out to the upside. Friday should be volatile, but Friday should also be very informational. So, pay attention to how we close for the session.

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• EUR/USD stays in positive territory above 1.1300 after a three-day slide.
• The near-term technical outlook is yet to highlight a buildup of bullish momentum.
• April Nonfarm Payrolls data from the US could trigger the next big action in the pair.

EUR/USD closed the third consecutive day in negative territory on Thursday and touched its weakest level in nearly three weeks below 1.1270. Although the pair stabilizes above 1.1300 in the European session on Friday, it remains fragile heading into the key April employment data release from the US.

The US Dollar (USD) ignored mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US and preserved its strength on Thursday, causing EUR/USD to stretch lower. The improving risk mood on growing optimism about a de-escalation in the US-China trade conflict helped the USD outperform its rivals. Bloomberg reported that China’s Commerce Ministry said that the US has taken the initiative to convey to China that the US is hoping to talk on trade.

In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the labor market data for April. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are forecast to rise 130,000 following the impressive 228,000 increase recorded in March. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%.

In case there is a significant negative surprise, with an NFP reading below 100,000, investors could see this as a sign pointing to a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in June and trigger a USD selloff. On the flip side, an upbeat NFP print could cause EUR/USD to turn south ahead of the weekend.

According go the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 42% probability that the Fed will maintain policy settings in June. This market positioning suggests that the USD faces a two-way risk heading into this event.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 50 despite the latest rebound. Additionally, EUR/USD continues to trade below the 50-period and the 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, pointing to a lack of buyer interest.

On the upside, 1.1370-1.1380 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) aligns as first resistance before 1.1430 (static level) and 1.1500 (static level, round level). Looking south, supports could be located at 1.1270 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement), 1.1175 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.1080 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).

Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.

And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500

Trend forecast: Bearish

Copper price surrendered to the positivity of the moving average55, which represents extra support near $4.5400, to begin recovering some of the losses by its current rally towards $4.6300, this rebound will not threat the negative track, due to the main stability below the resistance at $4.9100, besides 50% Fibonacci correction level attempt to form an extra barrier at $4.6600.

And that makes us wait for gathering negative momentum to ease the mission of holding below the moving average 55, then targeting more negative stations by reaching $4.4500 reaching the next main target at $4.3100.

The expected trading range for today is between $4.6600 and $4.4500

Trend forecast: Bearish

May 2, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP to “Remain Firm” vs USD over 2025

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was unable to move above 1.3350 on Thursday and retreated to just below 1.3300 after the round of US data.

The releases were certainly soft, but markets had been braced for even weaker figures which helped trigger dollar short covering.

Scotiabank still considers that the overall tone is one of consolidation; “The trend is bullish, given the sequence of higher highs and higher lows since March. The RSI has softened somewhat, but waning momentum is not enough to violate the bull trend. For now, we highlight the recent range and GBPUSD’s movement roughly bound between the mid-1.32s and mid-1.34s.”

Confidence in the US economy remains fragile and the latest labour market data triggered some alarm. re were some concerns.

Initial jobless claims increased to 241,000 in the latest week from 223,000 previously while continuing claims jumped to 1.92mn from 1.83mn in the previous week and the highest level since November 2021.

There was, however, some relief surrounding the business confidence data.

The ISM manufacturing index edged lower to 48.7 for April from 49.0 previously, but this was above consensus forecasts of 47.9.

The production index hit the lowest level since May 2020, but new orders and employment declined at slightly slower rates for the month.

The monthly jobs report is due on Friday.

According to MUFG; “A much weaker nonfarm payrolls report tomorrow poses the main downside risk for the US dollar‘s recent tentative rebound.”

ING added; “The reduction in dollar risk premium may have a little further to go, but may run into the bearish headwind of US data.”

Scotiabank also notes the importance of data; “The sharp decline seen in the USD so far suggests this may not be a “typical” year for the USD but persistence in the soft USD tone would fit with the outlook for slower growth, lower corporate earnings and continued diversification away from the USD in the next few months.”

UBS does see the risk of a more substantial GBP/USD correction; “We expect the pound to remain firm against the U.S. dollar over the course of the year, though some short-term setbacks may occur following the recent rally.”

UK data was mixed with the PMI manufacturing index remaining in contraction territory while there was a jump in March consumer lending ahead of the Stamp Duty changes.

Rabobank is cautious over the UK growth outlook. A growth agenda is a good thing, but the British government’s history of announcing grand strategies with much fanfare and little follow-through casts a long shadow.

There are strong expectations of a Bank of England rate cut next week and Rabobank noted the potential for more dovish guidance given concerns over the growth outlook.

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Dollar Forecasts

• USD/JPY posts a fresh almost three-week high around 145.00 as the Japanese Yen underperforms.
• The BoJ left interest rates steady at 0.5% and indicated a delay in plans of hiking interest rates further.
• The US Dollar surrenders some of its initial gains ahead of US Manufacturing PMI data.

The USD/JPY pair surges almost 0.8% to near 144.80 during European trading hours on Thursday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms across the board, with the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicating delay in plans of more interest rate hikes.

Earlier in the day, the BoJ kept interest rates steady at 0.5%, as expected, but expressed that additional tariffs imposed by United States (US) President Donald Trump on April 2 could hit the domestic economy and inflation.

We will enter a period in which both inflation and wage growth will likely slow somewhat. But we expect a positive cycle of rising wages and inflation to continue due to a severe labour shortage,” BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in the press conference, Reuters reported.

Additionally, the BoJ has cut Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for fiscal year ending March 2026 significantly to 0.5% from prior estimates of 1.1%.

Meanwhile, US Dollar (USD) gives up some of its intraday gains ahead of the US final S&P Global and Manufacturing PMI data for April, which will be published in the North American session.

USD/JPY extends its recovery to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 144.00. The pair started recovering after attracting bids near the 21-month low around 140.00.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rises into the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the bearish momentum is over. However, the downside bias is intact.

The odds of the pair extending its recovery towards the March 11 low of 146.54 and the April 9 high of 148.28 would increase if it will break above the key resistance of 145.00.

The asset would face downside move towards the 28 July 2023 low of 138.00 and the 14 July 2023 of 137.25 after sliding below the September 16 low of 139.58.

USD/JPY daily chart

• I have often noted and recommended buying the US dollar against the Japanese yen from every downward level.
• For three consecutive trading sessions, the USD/JPY currency pair has been recovering, stabilizing around the resistance level of 144.65 at the time of writing the analysis, recovering from its strong losses that reached the support level of 139.88, the pair’s lowest in seven months.
• Earlier today, the Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy decision to keep interest rates unchanged for the time being, as expected.
• However, the central bank lowered its growth forecasts for this year and next, raising doubts about further tightening.

Bank of Japan Keeps Rates Unchanged as Expected

Today’s decision was clear: The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its key short-term interest rate unchanged at 0.5% at its May meeting, maintaining its highest level since 2008 and in line with market expectations. This unanimous decision came amid growing concerns that US President Trump’s tariff measures could weaken both US and global economic growth.

Tokyo is currently negotiating a trade agreement with Washington, which could affect future policy moves. Furthermore, the Japanese board had indicated it would raise interest rates if economic and price forecasts were realized. In its quarterly forecasts, the BoJ lowered its forecast for Japan’s fiscal year 2025 GDP growth to 0.5% from the 1.0% expected in January, citing trade risks and political uncertainty. The growth forecast for 2026 was also lowered to 0.7% from 1.0%. Also, the BoJ cut its core inflation forecast for fiscal year 2025 from 2.7% to 2.2% and expects it to fall further to 1.7% in fiscal year 2026 before rising to 1.9% in fiscal year 2027.

Meanwhile, overall inflation is expected to remain around 2% through the end of the fiscal year ending March 2028.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp website follower, we still prefer buying the US dollar against the Japanese yen from every downward level, but without risk and distributing trades across several entry levels.

USD/JPY Technical analysis and Expectations Today:

Dear Reader, according to recent trading, the USD/JPY pair appears to be experiencing a notable recovery after reaching its low of 139.85 in April. The USD/JPY pair has achieved a bullish breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 144.24 and is currently trading at 144.60. The pair’s price shows a clear rebound from its April lows, forming a series of higher lows and higher highs since mid-April. This structure suggests that buyers have regained market momentum after the sharp decline from the 151.34 area seen in previous months.

The Fibonacci retracement levels, drawn from the recent swing high to swing low, represent key reference points. With the price breaking above the 38.2% level (144.24), attention now turns to the 50% retracement level at 145.60, which could be the next resistance target. Above that, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 146.95 will represent a significant hurdle for bulls. Looking at the moving averages, both are sloping downwards, indicating that the long-term trend remains bearish despite the recent recovery. The price will need to break above these dynamic resistance levels to confirm a more sustainable reversal.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators are showing strong bullish signals. The Stochastic indicator has crossed above the 50 level and is approaching the overbought zone, indicating strong buying pressure. Similarly, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending upward and is currently near 60, reflecting increasing bullish momentum without yet reaching overbought territory. If the USD/JPY pair continues its upward trend, the 50% Fibonacci level will be the next key resistance to watch. Conversely, failure to hold above the 38.2% level could see the pair retest support near the April lows.

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