Created on December 10, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Neutral.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1590 – 1.1520 – 1.1470.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1680 – 1.1760 – 1.1820.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1540 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1480.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1740 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Dear reader, as observed in market performance, the EUR/USD pair is showing stability within a short-term ascending triangle pattern, with the price currently testing the horizontal resistance level at the psychological mark of 1.1650. This chart pattern typically signals bullish continuation, suggesting the possibility of an upward breakout. The EUR/USD is trading around the 1.1645 level, hovering just below the resistance area that has capped gains since late November.

A decisive break above this ceiling could lead to a measured ascent equal to the height of the triangle pattern, targeting the 1.1750 level or higher. This would confirm a shift in momentum and restore buyer control over the market. However, if the resistance holds, the EUR/USD pair may retreat to test support levels within the triangle. The ascending trend line, which connects the pair’s lows since mid-November, lies around the 1.15500 support level, coinciding with the dynamic support of the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day SMA. Technically, these moving averages have recently converged and begun to flatten, reflecting market indecision.

Meanwhile, the convergence of the 100- and 200-period SMAs suggests that a breakout in either direction could determine the next move for the currency pair. A bounce off the trend line support would keep the triangle intact and pave the way for another attempt to break above the top. The Stochastic oscillator is currently hovering in the middle, showing neither strong buying nor selling pressure. The oscillator has room to rise towards overbought territory, which could support a potential upside if resistance is broken.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also in neutral territory around the 50 level, allowing for movement in either direction. An upward move would indicate strengthening bullish momentum, while a decline might suggest that sellers are successfully defending the resistance zone.

Trading Tips:

Dear TradersUp trader, be cautious. The EUR/USD pair may be affected by the eagerly awaited FOMC decision today, where the Federal Reserve is expected to cut US interest rates, perhaps signaling a more cautious pace for future monetary policy easing.

Euro/Dollar Trading Influenced by the Future of ECB Policies

According to Forex currency market trades, a “hawkish” bias in Eurozone interest rate expectations is supporting the EUR/USD exchange rate. In this context, an influential European Central Bank (ECB) official stated that she is comfortable with current market bets that the Eurozone central bank’s next move will be a rate hike. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB Governing Council, stated in an interview earlier this week that “markets and survey participants expect the next step to be a rate hike, even if it is not soon. I am quite comfortable with this expectation.”

Jana Randow, who conducted the interview with Schnabel for Bloomberg, said she was “surprised by the ‘hawkish’ nature of her stance.” She added: “Of course, we knew she had these ideas, but hearing her be so explicit that the next move will likely be a rate hike… was certainly news we didn’t expect from her.”

Across reliable trading platforms, the surprise was reflected in Eurozone bond yields outperforming US and UK bond yields, mirroring the shift in expectations regarding the ECB’s interest rate policy. Expectations for the ECB’s rate path have risen.

Technically, the euro/dollar exchange rate reached a resistance level of 1.1672 and is maintaining its gains this December, remaining above its key 55-day moving average. The recent weakness of the US dollar is not the only factor supporting the euro against the dollar. Last week, Germany boosted the euro when German factory orders rose 1.5% in October, five times the market expectation of 0.3%, and September’s reading was revised upwards from 1.1% to 2.0%.

French industrial production also surprised expectations, exceeding forecasts with a 0.2% increase compared to the anticipated 0.1% decline. Spanish output rose 0.7%, surpassing expectations of 0.5%. Overall, the strong growth trajectory and persistently high inflation reinforce Schnabel’s argument for keeping interest rates unchanged.

Regarding the future of monetary policy, with the US Federal Reserve poised to cut interest rates today, the divergence in interest rate policies between the US and the Eurozone will continue to strengthen the euro against the US dollar.

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– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK British Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP Struggles to Hold 1.33 Ahead of Fed

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) drifted toward 1.3315 as markets turned cautious ahead of the Fed decision and doubts emerged over how far US rates can fall next year.

Support above 1.33 looks fragile, especially if Powell delivers a hawkish tone alongside an expected cut.

With a BoE move also priced in for next week, direction now hinges on central-bank messaging.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Battles to Hold 1.33

The GBP to USD rate has not been able to make headway on Tuesday and has drifted to around 1.3315 amid narrow ranges.

According to UoB; “the price action still appears to be part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3290 and 1.3350.”

Convera FX and macro strategist Antonio Ruggiero commented; “sterling is holding above $1.33 for now, but support looks fragile ahead of the Fed meeting and could slip if Jerome Powell, the Fed chair, sounds hawkish.”

Markets remain very confident that the Bank of England will cut interest rates at next week’s meeting, although a split vote is very likely.

In testimony to the Treasury Select committee, MPC member Mann maintained concerns over core inflation and it will be difficult to convince her to back a rate cut next week.

Federal Reserve policy will remain a key element for markets.

There are still very strong expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by a further 25 basis points on Wednesday. There has been no unofficial push back from Fed officials and it will now be a major surprise if rates are not lowered.

Markets, however, are slightly less confident that rates will be cut again early in 2026.

The shift in expectations surrounding global rates has also triggered doubts whether the US central bank can continue to lower rates throughout 2026.

ING commented; “the reassessment of the Fed easing cycle proved the bigger story. There are now high expectations of a ‘hawkish cut’ at Wednesday evening’s FOMC decision.

Markets will monitor comments from Chair Powell and also note the new interest rate forecasts from committee members.

ING added; “With market pricing of further Fed easing still vulnerable, we suspect the dollar’s downside is limited into the Fed meeting.

As far as data is concerned, the NFIB small-business confidence index improved to 99.0 for November from 98.2 the previous month.

NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg commented; “Although optimism increased, small business owners are still frustrated by the lack of qualified workers. Despite this, more firms still plan to create new jobs in the near future.”

The latest ADP weekly data indicated that private employers added a small number of jobs in the latest week.

The evidence suggests that there has not been further labour-market deterioration which will make it more difficult for the Fed to justify lower rates.

There will still be concerns over threats to Fed independence amid the appointment of a new Chair and potential changes to the board.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• USD/JPY forecast remains mildly soft ahead of the FOMC rate decision.
• Next Fed Chair headlines keep the markets uncertain.
• Technically, the price could test the 200-day moving average before accumulating sufficient buying.

The USD/JPY price traded with mild softness on Tuesday as the Dollar Index drifted lower following fresh headlines about the next Fed leadership. The US dollar also remains under pressure amid the looming Fed rate decision today. Meanwhile, the US JOLTS Job Openings data provided some relief to the pair.

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The delayed data showed a slight improvement in the labor markets, but the figures are not strong enough to dispel the cooling signs. The job openings are drifting to multi-year lows, highlighting that the labor market conditions are easing rapidly than expected. The data holds more weight, as it is the final indicator before the Fed’s rate decision, with the November NFP data set scheduled for release next week. This cements the dovish Fed odds, with almost certain rate cut.

Political developments are also affecting the markets. According to the Wall Street Journal, the US President is preparing a final round of interviews with potential candidates to replace Fed Chair Powell. The news injected uncertainty into global markets, particularly regarding the Fed’s monetary policy path for 2026. Kevin Warsh, a potential candidate, is viewed as more hawkish than Kevin Hassett. Market participants remain sensitive to the leadership shift, as it could alter expectations for Fed policy.

From the Japanese side, the yen remains bid due to safe-haven flows as the global risk sentiment softened ahead of the key FOMC decision. The Bank of Japan continues to offer no new catalyst to the market, while its policy remains accommodative and yields are contained; the USD/JPY pair still depends on the Fed and US economic data.

USD/JPY Key Events Ahead

Today’s essential data ahead of the FOMC decision is the Employment Cost Index, which can provide a temporary impetus to the market. Overall, the pair remains vulnerable to further downside if US yields continue to ease after the soft JOLTS print.

Traders are now watching Powell’s press conference and the updated dot plot for clues on how aggressively the Fed intends to cut rates through 2025. Until then, USD/JPY is likely to trade with a mild bearish bias, lacking conviction to the upside.

USD/JPY Technical Forecast: Correction Before Upside

The 4-hour chart for USD/JPY shows a bullish crossover of 20- and 50-period MA. However, the 100- and 200-period MAs stay flat, pointing to a lack of market catalyst. Meanwhile, the RSI is flat near the overbought region. The conditions suggest a potential pullback to 156.00 before the upside continuation.

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Conversely, moving below the 156.00 mark could augment selling pressure, moving to the 200-period MA and the demand zone near 155.00.

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There is no change on copper price, despite forming mixed trading due to its stability above the extra support near $5.1300, increasing the chances of its activation with the positivity of the main indicators.

Stochastic stability within the overbought level will provide new positive momentum to ease the mission of resuming the bullish attack, reminding you that the stability of the next main target near $5.5000, while the decline below the current support might force it to form temporary corrective trading, and there is a chance for the decline towards $4.9500 reaching the main support near $4.7500.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.1850 and $5.5000

Trend forecast: Bullish

There is no change on copper price, despite forming mixed trading due to its stability above the extra support near $5.1300, increasing the chances of its activation with the positivity of the main indicators.

Stochastic stability within the overbought level will provide new positive momentum to ease the mission of resuming the bullish attack, reminding you that the stability of the next main target near $5.5000, while the decline below the current support might force it to form temporary corrective trading, and there is a chance for the decline towards $4.9500 reaching the main support near $4.7500.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.1850 and $5.5000

Trend forecast: Bullish

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The British pound will come under pressure against the euro next year as the UK economy suffers rising unemployment.

Given this, strategists at CIBC Capital Markets make buying EUR/GBP a top trade for 2026, judging that a recent pound sterling rebound will falter.

“Sterling witnessed something of a relief rally in the wake of Chancellor Reeves second Budget; the uptick in the fiscal headroom was greeted by some relief by Gilt investors,” says CIBC in a strategy note detailing top trades for the coming year.

“However, we would note the downgrade to GDP assumptions, deterioration in labour market trends and or substantive CPI base effects which are set to impact into Q2,” it adds.

EUR/GBP is has fallen during November and December as the 2025 selloff unwinds. Part of that weakness was linked to fears for UK economic growth and fiscal stability owing to the November budget.

The contents of the budget were well telegraphed by a series of leaks from the Treasury, and with no real surprises being announced on the day, the market has covered some of its bets against the pound.

For now, GBP/EUR upside is seen as a counter-trend bounce.

In our Pound to Euro Week Ahead Forecast, we note near-term momentum remains in favour of further upside, fulfilling earlier expectations for a year-end post-budget bounce in the pound.

However, upside will ultimately be limited by unhelpful fundamentals. CIBC’s analysts cite the following headwinds:

1. Slower GDP trajectory
2. Subdued gains in real disposable incomes
3. A rising tide of unemployment (dragging on earnings growth)

This “supports a faster pace of BoE adjustment; we assume 50bps of easing by the end of Q1, beyond the current 39bps priced by the market,” says CIBC.

Above: The Bank of England will cut interest rates faster than anticipated, warns CIBC.

“A more aggressive BoE profile supports the notion of EUR/GBP gains, given we expect the eurozone to benefit from German fiscal expansion, defence spending under the ReArm process in addition to ECB inertia, given policy remains in a good place,” it adds.

CIBC economists consider 3.50% to be the landing zone for Bank Rate.

This “supports EUR/GBP heading back towards 2023 highs.” The EUR/GBP high is 0.8865 (Nov. 14), giving a GBP/EUR low of 1.1280.

GBP/EUR Year-End 2025

Built from leading bank forecasts.

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Against the Tide

Weak GBP is a consensus expectation for 2026, but some analysts are taking the other side of that bet, suggesting lower UK interest rates could be supportive.

“Pessimism toward the UK is too high in our view. We believe the Bank of England now has more scope to cut rates, and retail sales appear to be on an uptrend. Economic growth could surprise positively in 2026 and support UK markets,” says Brian Levitt, Chief Global Market Strategist at Invesco.

Bank of America is also contrarian, saying the pound will outperform peers in 2026, as consensus positions tend to fizzle out early in the year.

With the budget having passed without drama, the pound is at a fork in the road: does that risk premium dissipate or does it become entrenched?

Bank of America thinks the former is the most likely: that premium can continue to lift, and the pound will recover as a result.

“This Budget has the buy-in from the OBR (who prepare macro forecasts for the Government) and the Chancellor has reinforced the commitment to keep the Fiscal Rule and raise the Fiscal Headroom. These are important anchors which should lead to a relief rally in GBP as the release valve of event risk has passed,” reads Bank of America’s year-ahead outlook.

BofA forecasts EUR/GBP at 0.84 by year-end, which gives a pound to euro conversion of 1.19.

The November data followed BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s optimistic economic outlook. He stated that the economy will return to growth in the fourth quarter and beyond, reinforcing his recent bullish pivot. Last week, Governor Ueda supported a rate hike, citing strong wage growth, fading US tariff risks, and FX weakness.

While expectations of a BoJ rate hike are strengthening yen demand, the FOMC interest rate decision, FOMC Economic Projections, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will dictate buyer appetite for the US dollar.

FOMC Interest Rate Decision Looms

Later on Wednesday, the Fed will take center stage as investors await its highly anticipated interest rate decision and Economic Projections. Economists expect the Fed to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with the CME FedWatch Tool giving an 87.6% chance of a rate cut.

Barring an unexpected hold or a surprise 50-basis-point cut, the market focus will be on the Economic Projections and the dot plot on rate expectations. Notably, the chances of a Q1 2026 rate cut declined overnight.

The FOMC Committee has divided into two camps in recent months. On one side, members support further policy easing to bolster a cooling labor market, while on the other, voters view sticky inflation as a reason to pause further cuts. Given the division among voting members, a hawkish cut looks likely, where the Fed downplays further easing in the near-term, but remains data dependent.

Economic Projections and Dot Plot to Spotlight the Greenback

The Economic Projections and dot plot will provide the crucial insights into the Fed’s outlook and potential rate path. For context, the September dot plot projected a 3.25%-3.50% Fed Funds Rate (FFR) by the end of 2026.

A 25-basis-point rate cut today would leave two further rate cuts to align with the September dot plot, the baseline for traders. A dovish Fed rate cut would be a lower FFR by the end of 2026, while a hawkish cut would be a higher 2026 FFR forecast.

Notably, the projections will be based on outdated inflation and jobs data, given the cancellation of October data. The absence of October’s government reports may downplay the influence of inflation, unemployment, and GDP projections on US dollar demand. However, given the USD/JPY sensitivity to September’s JOLTs job openings, the pair will be exposed to heightened volatility.

Meanwhile, there is also a potential announcement on bond purchases (quantitative easing).

With increased uncertainty about the post-December Fed rate path, the short- and medium-term outlook hinges on the Fed and the BoJ’s interest rate decisions and policy outlooks. Despite the uncertainty, the Fed’s easing and the BoJ’s tightening support a bearish medium-term outlook for USD/JPY.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY on a Downward Trajectory

Looking at the daily chart, USD/JPY traded above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bullish bias. However, fundamentals have begun to shift from the technical trend, supporting a bearish medium-term outlook.

A break below the 155 support level would bring the 50-day EMA into play. If breached, the 153 support level would be the next key support. Significantly, a sustained fall below the 50-day EMA would signal a bearish trend reversal, supporting a near-term drop toward 150.

Created on December 10, 2025

• The USD/JPY pair rallied firmly ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with traders watching both the expected cut and the press-conference guidance.
• A break above ¥158 could open a move toward ¥160, while dips remain favored for buying.

The US dollar has rallied quite nicely during the trading session on Tuesday, as it looks like we are ready to continue going higher. That being said, though, you have to understand that the Federal Reserve has an interest rate decision on Wednesday, which will have a major influence on this pair. Ultimately, keep in mind that although an interest rate cut is expected, a lot of what people will be paying attention to is the press conference and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do going forward.

Key Levels Into the Fed Decision

With this being the case, it’s possible that the market could go looking to the 158 yen level, breaking above there, then opening up the possibility of a much bigger move. But as things stand right now, I think you have to understand that Wednesday will be pretty messy, but once we get above that 158 yen level, and maybe it happens Wednesday, I don’t think it will happen right away, but it could. Then we’re looking at 160 yen before it’s all said and done.

I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this pair, and I look at dips as potential buying opportunities, but I also recognize that you have to be somewhat cautious here because of the volatility. You don’t want to get taken out of the market as machines are reacting to the interest rate decision or the statement.

All things being equal, as long as we don’t break down below the low price of Friday, I think the uptrend is very much intact and would even extend that maybe as low as 153 yen. Anything above there, it’s still got a shot to go higher. And I think ultimately if we can get above 158, to the 160 yen level, this thing could really take off. We’ll just have to wait and see what Jerome Powell has to say.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP to USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rangebound While Fed Uncertainty Builds

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) drifted through Tuesday’s session with little conviction, as traders positioned themselves cautiously ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3323, showing minimal movement from the day’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) traded without clear direction on Tuesday, with markets unwilling to commit ahead of the Federal Reserve’s imminent policy announcement.

While the Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut, the real uncertainty lies in the central bank’s forward guidance. Investors remain unclear on how aggressively — or cautiously — policymakers intend to ease monetary conditions in the coming months.

Split views within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have contributed to this uncertainty. Some officials warn that stubborn inflation limits the scope for meaningful cuts, while others point to signs of cooling in the US labour market as evidence that additional policy support is needed.

This lack of consensus has left traders hesitant, keeping the Dollar subdued as they await clearer direction from the Fed.

The Pound (GBP) spent much of Tuesday moving sideways, with a lack of fresh UK economic data leaving traders with little impetus to reposition.

A broadly indecisive market mood added to the inertia. With sentiment still fragile, the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound found itself confined to a tight trading band.

GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Decision to Steer Direction

Focus now turns to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement, where policymakers are expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut. However, the key market catalyst will be the tone of Chair Jerome Powell’s accompanying commentary.

If Powell strikes a firm note — signalling reluctance to accelerate the pace of easing despite political pressure from President Donald Trump — the US Dollar may find renewed support.

Conversely, if Powell hints that the FOMC is becoming more open to deeper or more frequent rate cuts in the months ahead, USD could weaken further.

With no major UK releases scheduled midweek, the Pound is likely to remain without a strong domestic catalyst, leaving GBP/USD movement highly sensitive to US monetary policy signals.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

USD/JPY Rises Amid Yen Weakness Post-Earthquake and with Central Banks in Focus

is rising amid yen weakness. The yen is the weakest G10 currency, falling against its major peers.

The yen fell yesterday and is extending those losses today, albeit to a lesser extent, after coming under pressure following an earthquake in northeastern Japan on Monday, which briefly raised concerns about economic disruptions. The earthquake measured 7.6 on the Richter Scale, and Tsunami warnings have now been lifted.

A downward revision to Japan’s Q3 also weighed on the currency, supporting PM Takaichi’s stance to boost growth, while also complicating the outlook for the BoJ.

The central bank is expected to raise next week amid a gradual path to normalization. While recent hawkish comments from BoJ Ueda have helped the yen recover from an 8-month low versus the , the yen still trades over 5% lower since the start of October, pressurised by PM Takaichi’s huge spending plans, which have sent Japanese bond yields to multi-decade highs.

Any meaningful recovery in the yen would require not just the BOG to follow through with stronger guidance but also for policymakers to demonstrate fiscal prudence.

This weakness in the yen is more evident against other yen crosses, with the JPY trading at a 16-month low versus , a 35-month low versus the AUD, and at a 17-month low versus the , particularly after the hawkish RBA held overnight.

Meanwhile, the USD is unchanged ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC , where the central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, which is broadly priced in. Attention will be on Powell’s tone and the dot plot for clues over what comes next.

Today, and 4-week average employment change will be in focus, but moves in the USD could remain muted ahead of tomorrow’s decision.

Near-term Worries of hawkish Fed cut and a dovish BoJ hike are supportive of USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Forecast – Technical Analysis

USD/JPY broke out of the multi-month rising channel, hitting an 8-month high of 157.90 before easing lower to the 155 support zone. The price has recovered from the 155 support zone and is heading higher, testing the 156.40 resistance level. The long-term uptrend remains intact.

Buyers will look to rise above 156.40 to extend gains to 157.90 and beyond, creating a higher high towards 160.00.

Support is seen at 155. A break below here opens the door to 153, the October 8 high, and the 50 SMA.

DAX Rises to an almost 1-Month High

The is rising for a fourth straight session, pushing to a nearly monthly high of 24,180.

The rise in Europe follows solid gains in the US after U.S. President Trump said NVIDIA (NASDAQ:) should be allowed to export its top H200 chips to China. However, there is also an element of caution ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points; however, the main focus will be on what Fed Powell says, given the divided central bank, and on how many rate cuts the dot plot projects for 2026.

Markets are predicting 77 basis points of easing through the end of 2026, meaning two more rate cuts after the December reduction remain on the table. The broad expectation is for a semi-hawkish tone from the Fed, cautioning that the bar is high for another rate cut, so that a dovish tilt could boost volatility for stocks across the globe.

On the data front, German exports unexpectedly rose in October, defying expectations for a decline, thanks to European Union trade, while shipments to the US and China fell sharply. Exports from Europe’s largest economy rose 0.1% in October, below expectations of 0.5%.

Exports to EU countries rose by 2.7% on the month, whilst exports of goods to countries outside of the EU declined by 3.3%.

The trump administration imposed a 15% import tariff on most goods from the EU under a deal reached with the bloc. The US was Germany’s largest bilateral trading partner in 2024, with two-way goods totaling €253 billion. However, exports to the US continued falling, dropping 8.3% year on year. Meanwhile, exports to China were down 5.8%, while imports fell 5.2% on the month.

In Germany, defence stocks are getting a lift from supportive news flow on military orders. German lawmakers are set to approve procurement contracts worth a record €52 billion next week, according to Bloomberg. Rheinmetall, Renk, and Hensoldt are rising firmly.

Elsewhere, Thyssenkrupp said it expects to swing into a net loss of up to €800 million in 2026, citing restructuring provisions.

DAX Forecast – Technical Analysis

DAX recovered from the 22,900 November low, rising above the 200 SMA, the rising trendline resistance, and the 50 SMA to hit 24,180, a three-week high.

Buyers, supported by the RSI above, will look to extend gains to 24,500, the November high, ahead of 24,745, the record high.

Immediate support is seen at 24,000 (the round number), the 50 SMA, 23,550 (the 200 SMA), and 23,360 (the horizontal support). A break below the 23,000 support zone creates a lower low.

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