The Euro rose against the British pound on Tuesday, as the selling may have gotten a bit overdone here. With this, there are a few potential moves that I am watching in this pair.

EUR/GBP

The Euro rose against the British pound during trading on Tuesday as we have reached towards the 0.8550 level. This is an area that’s been resistance previously, and now it has shown itself to be so again. If we could break above the 0.8550 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.86 level, which was a major support level.

Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of volatility and choppiness, and quite frankly, most of what we have seen to the downside more or less focused on the idea that the incoming Prime Minister in the United Kingdom was bringing in some cabinet members that would be a little bit more fiscally responsible. That being said, the market has turned around, and it does look like it’s trying to overcome that 0.8550 level.

Key Technical Levels and Market Dynamics

If it does, then it would not surprise me at all to see this market re-enter the consolidation area we had been in previously, which of course had the floor of 0.86 and the ceiling of 0.8750.

If we fail, then a return to the 0.85 level would not be a huge surprise. Signs of exhaustion probably have people looking to short this pair, as it gives you an opportunity to follow the most recent swing.

The market has seen the British rates over 5% in the 10-year yield for some time, and that is also something to keep in mind: the interest rate differential, so it does favor the downside, but the question at this point is, did we get a little overdone with our selling?

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Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

– Written by


Minesh Chaudhari

STORY LINK Pound Sterling Forecast: Politics and Jobless Claims in Focus for GBP

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded without a clear direction on Wednesday as investors assessed the latest UK inflation figures.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was changing hands at approximately $1.3367, little changed from the start of Wednesday’s session.

The Pound (GBP) remained broadly stable after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published June’s consumer price index.

The report showed headline inflation eased from 2.8% to 2.6%, falling below expectations for a more modest slowdown to 2.7% and marking the weakest annual rate of price growth since March 2025.

Ordinarily, a softer inflation reading would have weighed more heavily on Sterling by reinforcing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will be under less pressure to tighten monetary policy again this year.

However, losses were limited as core inflation proved more resilient than expected. Investors also remained mindful that the recent surge in energy prices, driven by renewed tensions in the Gulf, could cause inflationary pressures to strengthen again over the coming months.

The US Dollar (USD) regained momentum on Wednesday as escalating tensions in and around the Strait of Hormuz dampened global risk appetite.

An intensification of the conflict and continued disruption to one of the world’s most important shipping routes pushed Brent crude close to $95 per barrel, heightening concerns over global energy supplies and prompting investors to favour traditional safe-haven currencies.

The jump in oil prices also fuelled speculation that higher energy costs could keep US inflation elevated, supporting expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Political Developments Could Drive Sterling

Looking ahead to Thursday, the UK economic calendar is relatively quiet following a busy run of domestic data releases, leaving political developments as a potential driver of the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.

Investors will continue monitoring the reaction of the gilt market to Andy Burnham’s first days as Prime Minister. Any renewed concerns over the government’s fiscal plans or borrowing strategy could limit support for Sterling.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar may come under modest pressure if the latest US initial jobless claims figures reveal a further increase in unemployment benefit applications, potentially reinforcing expectations of a softer US labour market.

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EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Medium-term bearish, with the potential for short-term corrective rebounds before resuming the primary trend.

• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1380 – 1.1320 – 1.1250

• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1445 – 1.1500 – 1.1530

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy scenario: Buy from the support level of 1.1330, targeting 1.1500, with a stop-loss order placed below 1.1250.

• Sell scenario: Sell from the resistance level of 1.1500, targeting 1.1380, with a stop-loss order placed above the resistance level of 1.1560.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

In the short term, the EUR/USD pair is trading within a descending price channel characterized by lower highs and lower lows, reflecting continued seller dominance over the near horizon. Meanwhile, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI-14) is approaching oversold territory—a sign that negative momentum is beginning to wane, thereby increasing the likelihood of a limited technical rebound before the next direction is established.

Accordingly, 1.1375 remains the primary support level to watch, as a break below it could open the way toward 1.1355 and potentially lower levels. Conversely, if price manages to hold above this support, we may see a rebound toward 1.1430 followed by 1.1455.

Over the medium term, the general trend for the Euro against the US Dollar still leans negative. Price action continues inside a descending channel on the daily timeframe, pointing to sustained selling pressure despite recent recovery attempts. Nevertheless, the RSI bouncing from near-oversold levels suggests a slowdown in selling momentum, with the potential for the upward correction to extend if the pair manages to hold above current support levels.

Under this scenario, price may move to test the psychological resistance level at 1.1500, while 1.1620 represents the next technical target in the event of a clear breakout.

However, if buyers fail to maintain positive momentum, the pair could return to test 1.1300, with the decline potentially extending toward 1.1180 should selling pressure intensify.

Fundamental Analysis: EUR/USD

Trading in the EUR/USD pair on trusted broker platforms reflects a cautious atmosphere as investors weigh improving European economic data against sustained strength in the US Dollar, all while markets eagerly await the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision, which could serve as the primary driver for the pair in the period ahead.

German ZEW index data showed a notable improvement in investor sentiment for July, with the Economic Sentiment Index rising to 26.3 points compared to 10.5 points in June, outperforming market expectations. Additionally, the Current Conditions Index recorded -77.6 compared to -81.0 in the previous month.

This improvement extended across the broader Eurozone, where the ZEW index rose to 23.4 points, signaling growing optimism regarding the outlook for the European economy and providing relative support for the shared currency.

Meanwhile, German producer price data showed continued easing of inflationary pressures, giving the European Central Bank (ECB) room to maintain its current approach without needing to tighten monetary policy further.

Market focus now shifts to the ECB interest rate decision and President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, where market participants will look for any signals regarding the path of interest rates over the coming months. Any tone more hawkish than expected could provide the Euro with an upward boost, whereas cautious or dovish remarks could trigger renewed selling pressure on the pair.

Today’s Outlook Summary:

From a technical standpoint, the overall trend remains tilted to the downside; however, price proximity to key support zones alongside waning bearish momentum may allow the short-term corrective rebound to continue. The next major directional move for the EUR/USD pair will likely be determined following the ECB decision, alongside US Dollar developments and overall market risk sentiment.

Trading Tips:

market volatility is expected to spike in tandem with the ECB rate decision and any high-impact US economic data releases. Therefore, it is strongly advised to adhere strictly to risk management practices, utilize stop-loss orders, and avoid opening oversized positions ahead of key data announcements.

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Copper price formed bullish rally yesterday, achieving some gains by reaching $6.490 level, approaching the barrier at $6.5100, representing a confirmation key for activating the bullish trend.

The price might be forced to form some sideways trading, however the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of surpassing the current barrier, to expect targeting new positive stations that might begin at $6.6100 and $6.7300.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.3500 and $6.6100

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper price formed bullish rally yesterday, achieving some gains by reaching $6.490 level, approaching the barrier at $6.5100, representing a confirmation key for activating the bullish trend.

The price might be forced to form some sideways trading, however the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of surpassing the current barrier, to expect targeting new positive stations that might begin at $6.6100 and $6.7300.

The expected trading range for today is between $6.3500 and $6.6100

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURGBP activated the bullish corrective trend after reaching 0.8455 level, attempting to recover some losses by targeting 0.8538 level, forcing it to form some sideways trading by its fluctuation near 0.8520.

Note that the contradiction of the main indicators besides forming a key barrier at 0.8553 level against the current trading supports the chances of renewing the negative attempts, to expect reaching 0.8495, then attempting to renew the pressure on 0.8455 barrier to find an exit for resuming the bearish trend in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8495 and 0.8548

Trend forecast: Fluctuating

– Written by


Minesh Chaudhari

STORY LINK GBP/USD News, Forecast: Sterling Supported by Resilient Labour Market Data

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate remained confined to a narrow range on Tuesday as investors digested the latest UK labour market figures.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3427, little changed from the opening levels of Tuesday’s session.

The Pound (GBP) traded with limited direction on Tuesday as encouraging employment figures offset lingering concerns over the outlook for UK government borrowing costs.

Data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the unemployment rate unexpectedly held steady at 4.9% in May, defying forecasts for a rise to 5%.

The report also revealed a much stronger-than-expected increase in employment, with 147,000 new jobs created compared with expectations for a slowdown to around 85,000.

The resilient labour market strengthened expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could still consider another interest rate increase before the end of the year, helping to underpin Sterling.

However, gains remained capped after UK gilt yields moved higher in response to comments from Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who suggested his government would seek greater fiscal flexibility while remaining within existing budget rules.

The US Dollar (USD) found support on Tuesday as investors continued to monitor the worsening security situation in the Middle East.

Expectations that the renewed conflict would quickly de-escalate have faded, with markets increasingly preparing for a prolonged period of instability that could keep global energy prices elevated.

Sentiment was further rattled after President Donald Trump vowed a forceful response to the deaths of three US service personnel in Jordan, while Iran tightened its control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The deterioration in geopolitical conditions encouraged demand for traditional safe-haven assets, lending additional support to the US Dollar.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Inflation Figures Awaited

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the UK’s latest consumer price index is expected to be the main driver of movement in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.

Economists expect headline inflation to ease again in June. If confirmed, the data could reduce expectations for further Bank of England policy tightening and place renewed pressure on Sterling.

Meanwhile, with few notable US economic releases scheduled, the US Dollar is likely to remain heavily influenced by geopolitical developments. Any further escalation in tensions across the Middle East could increase demand for the safe-haven ‘Greenback’.

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– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: Middle East Tensions Push GBP Back Below 1.34

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) has slipped back to around 1.3380 as renewed Middle East tensions boosted demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.

Escalating military action between the US and Iran has lifted oil prices and increased concerns over global inflation, helping the Greenback recover while limiting Sterling’s ability to build on its recent gains.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Energy Fears Limit Pound Buying

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has consolidated just above 1.3450 with markets monitoring domestic and international developments. Unease over the Middle East situation has helped underpin the dollar and curbed Pound buying while markets are waiting for key economic evidence.

Oil prices spiked higher in Asian trading on Monday amid further US strikes on Iran while there have been on-going Iranian attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to UoB; “GBP has likely entered a range-trading phase between 1.3385 and 1.3495.”

Domestically, Andy Burnham has been confirmed as Prime Minister with an immediate focus on economic policy and the appointment of the next Chancellor.

The UK 10-year yield is just below the 5.00% level.

Scotiabank commented; “The greatest near-term risk lies with the UK’s fiscal outlook and Burnham’s plans around the prior government’s self-imposed fiscal rules.”

Nevertheless, the bank maintains a positive outlook on the Pound; “the latest pullback has revealed near-term resistance around 1.3550. We are bullish and note the potential for additional resistance closer to 1.3600. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3420 and 1.3520.”

Overall interest in high-yield instruments has been sustained despite the Middle East situation.

MUFG commented on potential risks; “higher yields on offer in the UK come at a time when financial market conditions are supportive for carry trades given FX volatility is close to year-to-date lows. The recent rebound in energy prices and the correction lower for AI-related equities has not yet threatened current stable financial market conditions, although they are two obvious risks that could trigger an unwind of popular FX carry trades if they intensify further.”

ING expressed concerns over energy prices and expects firm dollar demand; “We are particularly focused on natural gas prices, which are now very close to their March highs again. And there is increasing focus on refined products, such as diesel, where higher prices can only add to fears of inflationary pressures being handed down global supply chains.”

According to the bank; “higher energy prices mean that the Fed will have to remain alert, and in this environment we struggle to see that any investors already owning dollars will be inclined to sell.”

MUFG added; “The renewed military strikes are disrupting energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC Navy stated yesterday it had halted four unidentified vessels attempting to use an “unsafe route” after disregarding warnings. The unfavourable developments are leading to pick-up in global inflation risks and will put more pressure on central banks including the Fed to tighten policy this year.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts